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EIA 2010 outlook-reference case

EIA 2010 outlook-reference case

Appendix A Reference Case Projections:•World energy consumption•Gross domestic product•Carbon dioxide emissions•World populationTable A1.World total primary energy consumption by region,Reference case,2005-2035(Quadrillion Btu)Reference case projectionsU.S.Energy Information Administration /International Energy Outlook 2010131Region/CountryHistoryProjections Average annual percent change,2007-203520052006200720152020202520302035OECDOECD North America ...........122.4121.8123.7124.3129.4134.9140.2146.30.6United States a .................100.599.8101.7101.6105.0108.3111.2114.50.4Canada ......................14.814.514.314.615.416.317.218.20.9Mexico.......................7.17.47.78.19.010.411.813.5 2.0OECD Europe .................82.482.982.382.083.085.086.588.20.2OECD Asia....................39.039.539.739.741.843.344.846.30.5Japan .......................23.123.322.821.121.922.122.122.2-0.1South Korea ..................9.39.49.710.611.712.713.814.9 1.5Australia/New Zealand ..........6.6 6.77.28.08.28.58.99.20.9Total OECD .................243.8244.1245.7246.0254.2263.2271.4280.70.5Non-OECDNon-OECD Europe and Eurasia...50.451.051.552.454.256.257.860.20.6Russia.......................29.730.530.530.731.632.833.935.50.5Other........................20.720.621.021.722.523.323.924.70.6Non-OECD Asia................112.6119.6127.1159.3187.8217.0246.9277.3 2.8China........................68.473.078.0101.4121.4142.4162.7181.9 3.1India ........................17.518.820.324.328.231.134.137.6 2.2Other Non-OECD Asia ..........26.727.828.833.738.243.550.257.8 2.5Middle East ...................22.823.925.132.936.539.141.845.7 2.2Africa ........................17.217.317.820.822.524.626.529.0 1.8Central and South America ......26.027.128.032.135.538.742.245.7 1.8Brazil........................11.211.712.314.916.919.321.924.3 2.4Other Central and South America..14.815.415.717.218.619.320.321.4 1.1Total Non-OECD .............229.0239.0249.5297.5336.3375.5415.2458.0 2.2Total World ....................472.7483.1495.2543.5590.5638.7686.5738.7 1.4a Includes the 50States and the District of Columbia.Notes:Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States.Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting coun-try.Sources:History:U.S.Energy Information Administration (EIA),International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2009),web site /emeu/international;and International Energy Agency,“Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Statistics”(2009),web site (subscription site).Projections:EIA,Annual Energy Outlook 2010,DOE/EIA-0383(2010)(Washing-ton,DC,April 2010),AEO2010National Energy Modeling System,run AEO2010R.D111809A,web site /oiaf/aeo;and World Energy Projection System Plus (2010).Table A2.World total energy consumption by region and fuel,Reference case,2005-2035(Quadrillion Btu)Appendix A132U.S.Energy Information Administration /International Energy Outlook 2010Region/CountryHistoryProjections Average annual percent change,2007-203520052006200720152020202520302035OECDOECD North AmericaLiquids .....................49.549.049.447.548.149.450.952.50.2Natural gas..................28.128.129.228.330.132.234.035.80.7Coal .......................24.724.324.623.824.425.025.826.90.3Nuclear.....................9.29.49.610.110.810.911.011.30.6Other ......................10.911.111.014.616.017.418.419.8 2.1Total......................122.4121.8123.7124.3129.4134.9140.2146.30.6OECD EuropeLiquids .....................32.332.431.629.027.727.728.028.3-0.4Natural gas..................19.719.719.820.821.722.122.222.60.5Coal .......................12.713.113.211.511.210.910.811.0-0.6Nuclear.....................9.79.69.19.710.010.510.911.20.8Other ......................7.98.18.711.012.413.814.515.1 2.0Total......................82.482.982.382.083.085.086.588.20.2OECD AsiaLiquids .....................17.517.216.915.616.116.516.717.00.0Natural gas..................5.96.3 6.77.47.78.28.38.50.8Coal .......................9.29.310.19.29.29.59.810.40.1Nuclear.....................4.3 4.3 3.9 4.95.76.0 6.57.0 2.1Other ......................2.1 2.2 2.1 2.63.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 1.7Total......................39.039.539.739.741.843.344.846.30.5Total OECDLiquids .....................99.398.697.992.192.093.595.697.70.0Natural gas..................53.754.155.656.559.562.664.666.80.7Coal .......................46.746.747.944.544.845.446.448.30.0Nuclear.....................23.223.322.624.726.527.428.529.5 1.0Other ......................20.921.421.728.231.434.336.338.3 2.0Total......................243.8244.1245.7246.0254.2263.2271.4280.70.5Non-OECDNon-OECD Europe and EurasiaLiquids .....................10.110.310.410.110.010.210.511.00.2Natural gas..................25.825.826.327.328.028.628.729.00.3Coal .......................8.48.88.78.07.98.08.59.40.3Nuclear.....................2.9 2.93.0 3.74.65.5 5.86.3 2.7Other ......................3.2 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.84.1 4.5 1.4Total......................50.451.051.552.454.256.257.860.20.6Non-OECD AsiaLiquids .....................31.733.434.641.546.953.460.066.5 2.4Natural gas..................8.69.810.817.220.924.026.228.2 3.5Coal .......................61.965.470.381.293.9108.2123.7140.3 2.5Nuclear.....................1.1 1.1 1.2 3.2 5.67.28.59.87.7Other ......................9.39.910.216.220.424.228.532.5 4.2Total......................112.6119.6127.1159.3187.8217.0246.9277.3 2.8See notes at end of table.Table A2.World total energy consumption by region and fuel,Reference case,2005-2035(continued)(Quadrillion Btu)Reference case projectionsU.S.Energy Information Administration /International Energy Outlook 2010133Region/CountryHistoryProjections Average annual percent change,2007-203520052006200720152020202520302035Non-OECD (continued)Middle EastLiquids .....................12.012.513.315.016.117.719.722.7 1.9Natural gas..................10.210.811.217.019.320.220.721.5 2.4Coal .......................0.40.40.40.40.30.30.30.4-0.2Nuclear.....................0.00.00.00.10.20.30.40.5—Other ......................0.30.30.30.40.50.50.60.6 3.1Total......................22.823.925.132.936.539.141.845.7 2.2AfricaLiquids .....................6.1 6.2 6.47.27.48.08.79.4 1.4Natural gas..................3.2 3.1 3.3 5.1 6.1 6.97.17.4 2.9Coal .......................4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.75.36.2 1.4Nuclear.....................0.10.10.10.20.20.20.20.3 3.6Other ......................3.6 3.6 3.74.2 4.5 4.95.3 5.8 1.6Total......................17.217.317.820.822.524.626.529.0 1.8Central and South AmericaLiquids .....................11.311.812.213.413.614.415.416.3 1.0Natural gas..................4.7 4.8 4.9 6.07.48.08.49.1 2.3Coal .......................0.80.90.90.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.1Nuclear.....................0.20.20.20.30.40.50.50.7 4.2Other ......................9.09.49.811.413.014.616.517.9 2.2Total......................26.027.128.032.135.538.742.245.7 1.8Total Non-OECDLiquids .....................71.174.276.887.394.1103.7114.4125.9 1.8Natural gas..................52.554.256.572.681.787.791.295.2 1.9Coal .......................75.779.784.694.6107.6122.4139.2157.9 2.3Nuclear.....................4.3 4.4 4.57.510.913.715.417.5 4.9Other ......................25.326.527.135.642.048.155.061.4 3.0Total......................229.0239.0249.5297.5336.3375.5415.2458.0 2.2Total WorldLiquids .....................170.4172.8174.7179.3186.0197.2210.0223.60.9Natural gas..................106.3108.3112.1129.1141.2150.2155.8162.0 1.3Coal .......................122.3126.4132.4139.1152.4167.8185.6206.3 1.6Nuclear.....................27.527.827.132.237.441.143.947.1 2.0Other ......................46.247.948.863.873.482.491.299.8 2.6Total......................472.7483.1495.2543.5590.5638.7686.5738.7 1.4Notes:Energy totals include net imports of coal coke and electricity generated from biomass in the United States.Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.The electricity portion of the national fuel consumption values consists of generation for domestic use plus an adjustment for electricity trade based on a fuel’s share of total generation in the exporting coun-try.Sources:History:U.S.Energy Information Administration (EIA),International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2009),web site /emeu/international;and International Energy Agency,“Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Statistics”(2009),web site (subscription site).Projections:EIA,Annual Energy Outlook 2010,DOE/EIA-0383(2010)(Washing-ton,DC,April 2010),AEO2010National Energy Modeling System,run AEO2010R.D111809A,web site /oiaf/aeo;and World Energy Projection System Plus (2010).Table A3.World gross domestic product (GDP)by region expressed in purchasing power parity,Reference case,2005-2035(Billion 2005dollars)Appendix A134U.S.Energy Information Administration /International Energy Outlook 2010Region/CountryHistoryProjections Average annual percent change,2007-203520052006200720152020202520302035OECDOECD North America ...........14,88315,32715,66218,08121,02324,07227,44531,142 2.5United States a .................12,42212,76813,02715,02217,42719,85122,47525,278 2.4Canada ......................1,1671,2001,2311,4361,6061,7791,9752,192 2.1Mexico.......................1,2931,3591,4051,6241,9902,4422,9943,672 3.5OECD Europe .................13,92814,41214,84916,20818,03519,86421,77123,807 1.7OECD Asia....................5,5355,6815,8506,5307,0897,5578,0448,531 1.4Japan .......................3,8723,9514,0414,2584,4374,5204,6014,6650.5South Korea ..................8929389861,2631,4941,7251,9582,189 2.9Australia/New Zealand ..........7717928231,0091,1571,3111,4851,677 2.6Total OECD .................34,34535,42036,36140,81946,14651,49257,26063,480 2.0Non-OECDNon-OECD Europe and Eurasia...2,9773,2183,4814,1934,9405,7316,5577,440 2.7Russia.......................1,7031,8341,9822,3492,7513,2023,6854,222 2.7Other........................1,2751,3841,4991,8442,1892,5292,8723,218 2.8Non-OECD Asia................11,89713,01314,32324,05531,83240,30749,36659,023 5.2China........................5,4086,0356,82012,73217,35322,44627,59632,755 5.8India ........................2,4402,6762,9184,8476,3427,8339,52911,454 5.0Other Non-OECD Asia ..........4,0494,3024,5856,4768,13710,02812,24114,814 4.3Middle East ...................1,9852,1452,2613,0713,7424,4735,3366,328 3.7Africa ........................2,3602,4942,6383,6394,4065,2216,1027,094 3.6Central and South America ......3,6123,8224,0665,3436,3667,5168,81810,294 3.4Brazil........................1,5341,5951,6852,3502,8773,5054,2505,126 4.1Other Central and South America..2,0792,2272,3812,9933,4894,0114,5685,168 2.8Total Non-OECD .............22,83224,69226,76940,30151,28663,24776,17990,179 4.4Total World ....................57,17760,11263,13081,12097,433114,740133,439153,658 3.2a Includes the 50States and the District of Columbia.Notes:Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.GDP growth rates for non-OECD Europe and Eur-asia (excluding Russia),China,India,Africa,and Central and South America (excluding Brazil)were adjusted,based on the ana-lyst’s judgment.Sources:History:IHS Global Insight,World Overview (Lexington,MA,various issues).Projections:IHS Global Insight,World Overview ,Third Quarter 2009(Lexington,MA,November 2009);and U.S.Energy Information Administration (EIA),Annual Energy Outlook 2010,DOE/EIA-0383(2010)(Washington,DC,April 2010),AEO2010National Energy Modeling System,run AEO2010R.D111809A,web site /oiaf/aeo.Table A4.World gross domestic product (GDP)by region expressed in market exchange rates,Reference case,2005-2035(Billion 2005dollars)Reference case projectionsU.S.Energy Information Administration /International Energy Outlook 2010143Region/CountryHistoryProjections Average annual percent change,2007-203520052006200720152020202520302035OECDOECD North America ...........14,40614,82715,14517,48320,29423,18326,36129,819 2.4United States a .................12,42212,76813,02715,02217,42719,85122,47525,278 2.4Canada ......................1,1341,1661,1961,3951,5611,7291,9202,130 2.1Mexico.......................8498939221,0661,3071,6031,9662,411 3.5OECD Europe .................14,67215,15715,59416,88918,66520,45322,31924,306 1.6OECD Asia....................6,2226,3826,5677,2827,8708,3518,8529,350 1.3Japan .......................4,5574,6494,7555,0115,2225,3205,4155,4900.5South Korea ..................8458889341,1971,4151,6341,8542,073 2.9Australia/New Zealand ..........8218448771,0751,2331,3971,5821,787 2.6Total OECD .................35,30136,36637,30641,65544,01949,09857,53263,475 1.9Non-OECDNon-OECD Europe and Eurasia...1,3481,4561,5731,8902,2252,5782,9463,340 2.7Russia.......................7648238891,0531,2341,4361,6531,894 2.7Other........................5846336848379911,1421,2931,447 2.7Non-OECD Asia................4,7515,1905,7109,52612,57315,88619,40223,123 5.1China........................2,2442,5042,8305,2837,2009,31311,45013,591 5.8India ........................8138929731,6162,1142,6113,1763,818 5.0Other Non-OECD Asia ..........1,6931,7941,9082,6283,2593,9624,7765,714 4.0Middle East ...................1,0791,1621,2241,6852,0542,4542,9243,463 3.8Africa ........................9831,0391,1001,4931,8132,1602,5412,978 3.6Central and South America ......1,9562,0672,1942,8873,4574,1014,8365,678 3.5Brazil........................8829179691,3511,6542,0152,4432,947 4.1Other Central and South America..1,0751,1501,2261,5371,8032,0852,3932,731 2.9Total Non-OECD .............10,11710,91411,80117,48222,12127,17932,65038,582 4.3Total World ....................45,41747,28049,10659,13666,14076,27790,181102,057 2.6a Includes the 50States and the District of Columbia.Notes:Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.GDP growth rates for non-OECD Europe and Eur-asia (excluding Russia),China,India,Africa,and Central and South America (excluding Brazil)were adjusted,based on the ana-lyst’s judgment.Sources:History:IHS Global Insight,World Overview (Lexington,MA,various issues).Projections:IHS Global Insight,World Overview ,Third Quarter 2009(Lexington,MA,November 2009);and U.S.Energy Information Administration (EIA),Annual Energy Outlook 2010,DOE/EIA-0383(2010)(Washington,DC,April 2010),Table A19.Table A5.World liquids consumption by region,Reference case,2005-2035(Million barrels per day)Appendix A136U.S.Energy Information Administration /International Energy Outlook 2010Region/CountryHistoryProjections Average annual percent change,2007-203520052006200720152020202520302035OECDOECD North America ...........25.225.025.124.625.025.726.427.40.3United States a .................20.820.720.620.220.621.021.522.10.2Canada ......................2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.40.1Mexico.......................2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.9 1.1OECD Europe .................15.715.715.314.013.413.413.613.7-0.4OECD Asia....................8.68.58.47.78.08.18.38.40.0Japan .......................5.3 5.2 5.0 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1-0.7South Korea ..................2.2 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.93.1 1.1Australia/New Zealand ..........1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.20.4Total OECD .................49.549.148.846.346.447.248.349.50.0Non-OECDNon-OECD Europe and Eurasia...4.95.0 5.1 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.40.2Russia.......................2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.80.0Other........................2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.50.5Non-OECD Asia................15.416.216.820.122.725.929.132.3 2.4China........................6.77.37.610.011.613.515.316.9 2.9India ........................2.5 2.7 2.83.2 3.6 3.94.3 4.7 1.8Other Non-OECD Asia ..........6.2 6.2 6.3 6.97.68.59.510.7 1.9Middle East ...................5.86.0 6.47.27.88.59.511.0 1.9Africa ........................3.0 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.94.2 4.6 1.4Central and South America ......5.5 5.86.0 6.6 6.77.07.58.0 1.0Brazil........................2.2 2.3 2.4 2.83.0 3.3 3.64.0 1.9Other Central and South America..3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.94.00.4Total Non-OECD .............34.636.137.342.445.750.455.661.1 1.8Total World ....................84.085.286.188.792.197.6103.9110.60.9a Includes the 50States and the District of Columbia.Note:Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.Sources:History:U.S.Energy Information Administration (EIA),International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2009),web site /emeu/international.Projections:EIA,Annual Energy Outlook 2010,DOE/EIA-0383(2010)(Washington,DC,April 2010),AEO2010National Energy Modeling System,run AEO2010R.D111809A,web site /oiaf/aeo;and World Energy Projection System Plus (2010).Table A6.World natural gas consumption by region,Reference case,2005-2035(Trillion cubic feet)Reference case projectionsU.S.Energy Information Administration /International Energy Outlook 2010137Region/CountryHistoryProjections Average annual percent change,2007-203520052006200720152020202520302035OECDOECD North America ...........27.327.228.327.429.231.232.934.60.7United States a .................22.021.723.021.722.623.624.324.90.3Canada ......................3.4 3.3 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.74.0 4.3 1.4Mexico.......................1.92.2 2.4 2.53.1 3.94.65.5 3.0OECD Europe .................19.219.119.220.221.021.521.521.90.5OECD Asia....................5.3 5.86.3 6.97.37.77.88.00.8Japan .......................3.1 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.94.0 4.0 4.00.2South Korea ..................1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.4Australia/New Zealand ..........1.1 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.92.0 2.1 1.7Total OECD .................51.852.153.754.557.460.362.364.40.6Non-OECDNon-OECD Europe and Eurasia...25.325.325.926.827.528.128.228.50.3Russia.......................16.216.616.716.716.917.217.317.60.2Other........................9.18.79.110.110.610.910.910.90.6Non-OECD Asia................8.59.610.516.720.423.325.527.5 3.5China........................1.72.0 2.5 4.9 6.37.68.79.7 5.0India ........................1.3 1.4 1.5 3.1 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.1Other Non-OECD Asia ..........5.66.2 6.68.710.211.412.313.3 2.6Middle East ...................9.810.310.716.218.419.319.820.5 2.4Africa ........................3.0 2.9 3.14.85.76.4 6.6 6.8 2.9Central and South America ......4.4 4.5 4.65.67.07.57.98.6 2.3Brazil........................0.70.70.7 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.3 4.3Other Central and South America..3.7 3.8 3.94.65.5 5.7 5.96.3 1.7Total Non-OECD .............50.952.654.770.178.984.688.091.9 1.9Total World ....................102.7104.6108.5124.7136.3144.9150.3156.3 1.3a Includes the 50States and the District of Columbia.Note:Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.Sources:History:U.S.Energy Information Administration (EIA),International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2009),web site /emeu/international.Projections:EIA,Annual Energy Outlook 2010,DOE/EIA-0383(2010)(Washington,DC,April 2010),AEO2010National Energy Modeling System,run AEO2010R.D111809A,web site /oiaf/aeo;and World Energy Projection System Plus (2010).Table A7.World coal consumption by region,Reference case,2005-2035(Quadrillion Btu)Appendix A138U.S.Energy Information Administration /International Energy Outlook 2010Region/CountryHistoryProjections Average annual percent change,2007-203520052006200720152020202520302035OECDOECD North America ...........24.724.324.623.824.425.025.826.90.3United States a .................22.822.522.722.323.023.624.325.10.4Canada ......................1.5 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2-0.8Mexico.......................0.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.6 1.7OECD Europe .................12.713.113.211.511.210.910.811.0-0.6OECD Asia....................9.29.310.19.29.29.59.810.40.1Japan .......................4.6 4.6 4.9 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8-0.9South Korea ..................2.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.73.1 3.6 1.6Australia/New Zealand ..........2.6 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.93.00.2Total OECD .................46.746.747.944.544.845.446.448.30.0Non-OECDNon-OECD Europe and Eurasia...8.48.88.78.07.98.08.59.40.3Russia.......................4.3 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.65.30.8Other........................4.1 4.4 4.4 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1-0.2Non-OECD Asia................61.965.470.381.293.9108.2123.7140.3 2.5China........................48.351.054.865.276.488.5100.5112.4 2.6India ........................8.69.210.210.511.512.413.715.5 1.5Other Non-OECD Asia ..........4.95.1 5.4 5.56.07.39.612.4 3.0Middle East ...................0.40.40.40.40.30.30.30.4-0.2Africa ........................4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.75.36.2 1.4Central and South America ......0.80.90.90.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.1Brazil........................0.40.40.50.50.60.8 1.0 1.2 3.4Other Central and South America..0.40.40.50.40.40.40.40.50.1Total Non-OECD .............75.779.784.694.6107.6122.4139.2157.9 2.3Total World ....................122.3126.4132.4139.1152.4167.8185.6206.3 1.6a Includes the 50States and the District of Columbia.Note:Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.Sources:History:U.S.Energy Information Administration (EIA),International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2009),web site /emeu/international.Projections:EIA,Annual Energy Outlook 2010,DOE/EIA-0383(2010)(Washington,DC,April 2010),AEO2010National Energy Modeling System,run AEO2010R.D111809A,web site /oiaf/aeo;and World Energy Projection System Plus (2010).Table A8.World nuclear energy consumption by region,Reference case,2005-2035 (Billion kilowatthours)Region/CountryHistory Projections Average annualpercent change,2007-2035 20052006200720152020202520302035OECDOECD North America...........8808919059581,0201,0311,0461,0740.6 United States a.................7827878068348838868868980.4 Canada......................879389113127134142158 2.1 Mexico.......................1010101111111818 2.2 OECD Europe.................9329298799359671,0111,0551,0840.8 OECD Asia....................429430386486560591641683 2.1 Japan.......................290288251311342358388417 1.8 South Korea..................139141136175218233254266 2.4 Australia/New Zealand..........00000000—Total OECD.................2,2402,2502,1712,3792,5482,6342,7422,841 1.0Non-OECDNon-OECD Europe and Eurasia...264269273342425512545588 2.8 Russia.......................140144148197258324345364 3.3 Other........................124124125145167188200224 2.1Non-OECD Asia................1061111193125436988149427.7 China........................5055631863354375125988.4 India........................161616661191561792039.5 Other Non-OECD Asia..........4040416189105123141 4.5 Middle East...................000620293949—Africa........................1210121515212131 3.5 Central and South America......1621192834434362 4.3 Brazil........................1014121822313141 4.4 Other Central and South America..6771012121221 4.2 Total Non-OECD.............3994114237041,0381,3031,4621,672 5.0Total World....................2,6392,6602,5933,0833,5863,9374,2044,514 2.0a Includes the50States and the District of Columbia.Note:Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.Sources:History:U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA),International Energy Statistics database(as of November2009), web site /emeu/international.Projections:EIA,Annual Energy Outlook2010,DOE/EIA-0383(2010)(Washington, DC,April2010),AEO2010National Energy Modeling System,run AEO2010R.D111809A,web site /oiaf/aeo;and World Energy Projection System Plus(2010).Table A9.World consumption of hydroelectricity and other renewable energy by region,Reference case, 2005-2035(Quadrillion Btu)Region/CountryHistory Projections Average annualpercent change,2007-2035 20052006200720152020202520302035OECDOECD North America...........10.911.111.014.616.017.418.419.8 2.1 United States a................. 6.1 6.4 6.29.310.111.011.512.4 2.5 Canada...................... 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.5 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.1 1.4 Mexico.......................0.60.60.50.80.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 3.1 OECD Europe.................7.98.18.711.012.413.814.515.1 2.0 OECD Asia.................... 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 1.7 Japan....................... 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.70.8 South Korea..................0.10.10.10.20.20.20.30.3 3.0 Australia/New Zealand..........0.70.70.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.8 Total OECD.................20.921.421.728.231.434.336.338.3 2.0Non-OECDNon-OECD Europe and Eurasia... 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.5 1.4 Russia....................... 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 1.5 Other........................ 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.3Non-OECD Asia................9.39.910.216.220.424.228.532.5 4.2 China........................ 4.1 4.5 4.58.711.213.816.418.5 5.2 India........................ 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.2 4.0 4.5 5.1 5.8 3.0 Other Non-OECD Asia.......... 2.9 3.0 3.1 4.3 5.2 5.97.08.2 3.5 Middle East...................0.30.30.30.40.50.50.60.6 3.1 Africa........................ 3.6 3.6 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.8 1.6 Central and South America......9.09.49.811.413.014.616.517.9 2.2 Brazil........................ 5.5 5.7 6.27.38.49.711.012.2 2.4 Other Central and South America.. 3.5 3.7 3.6 4.2 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.8 1.7 Total Non-OECD.............25.326.527.135.642.048.155.061.4 3.0Total World....................46.247.948.863.873.482.491.299.8 2.6a Includes the50States and the District of Columbia.Notes:Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.U.S.totals include net electricity imports,methanol, and liquid hydrogen.Sources:History:U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA),International Energy Statistics database(as of November2009), web site /emeu/international;and International Energy Agency,“Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Statistics”(2009),web site (subscription site).Projections:EIA,Annual Energy Outlook2010,DOE/EIA-0383(2010)(Washing-ton,DC,April2010),AEO2010National Energy Modeling System,run AEO2010R.D111809A,web site /oiaf/aeo; and World Energy Projection System Plus(2010).Table A10.World carbon dioxide emissions by region,Reference case,2005-2035 (Million metric tons carbon dioxide)Region/CountryHistory Projections Average annualpercent change,2007-2035 20052006200720152020202520302035OECDOECD North America...........7,0126,9157,0176,7346,9047,1637,4267,7040.3 United States a.................5,9745,8945,9865,7315,8516,0166,1766,3200.2 Canada......................6285965865535545796096430.3 Mexico.......................410426444451499568641741 1.8 OECD Europe.................4,3984,4264,3864,1104,0424,0374,0524,107-0.2 OECD Asia....................2,2032,1972,2732,1492,2002,2622,3172,3890.2 Japan.......................1,2541,2531,2621,1021,1141,1061,0851,064-0.6 South Korea..................496486516535570627687757 1.4 Australia/New Zealand..........4534574955125175305465670.5 Total OECD.................13,61313,53813,67612,99313,14713,46213,79614,2000.1Non-OECDNon-OECD Europe and Eurasia...2,8422,8762,8972,8822,9152,9663,0423,1720.3 Russia.......................1,6501,6721,6631,6421,6481,6661,7151,8110.3 Other........................1,1931,2041,2331,2401,2661,2991,3271,3610.4Non-OECD Asia................8,3828,8319,42511,22812,97214,89716,90518,984 2.5 China........................5,5585,8626,2847,7169,05710,51411,94513,326 2.7 India........................1,1871,2871,3991,5661,7511,9052,0792,296 1.8 Other Non-OECD Asia..........1,6371,6811,7431,9462,1632,4782,8823,362 2.4 Middle East...................1,3951,4461,5151,9392,1342,2872,4502,692 2.1 Africa........................9829881,0111,1571,2371,3471,4611,610 1.7 Central and South America......1,0921,1331,1691,3111,4081,5011,6131,734 1.4 Brazil........................366380394478534601682761 2.4 Other Central and South America..7267537758338739019319730.8 Total Non-OECD.............14,69315,27416,01718,51620,66522,99825,47228,193 2.0Total World....................28,30628,81229,69431,50933,81236,46039,26842,392 1.3a Includes the50States and the District of Columbia.Note:The U.S.numbers include carbon dioxide emissions attributable to renewable energy sources.Sources:History:U.S.Energy Information Administration(EIA),International Energy Statistics database(as of November2009), web site /emeu/international.Projections:EIA,Annual Energy Outlook2010,DOE/EIA-0383(2010)(Washington, DC,April2010),AEO2010National Energy Modeling System,run AEO2010R.D111809A,web site /oiaf/aeo;and World Energy Projection System Plus(2010).。

switch语句的应用

switch语句的应用

表达式有一个确定的 表达式 有一个确定的 不是逻辑值). 值(不是逻辑值 不是逻辑值
例7.5 编写程序，实现如下功能。 编写程序，实现如下功能。 输入一个实数后，屏幕显示如下菜单: 输入一个实数后，屏幕显示如下菜单: 1. 输出相反数 2. 输出平方数 3. 输出平方根 4. 退出
#include <stdio.h> void main() { int i, c=5; float m; printf("输入任意一个整型数：\n"); 输入任意一个整型数： 输入任意一个整型数 scanf("%f", &m); printf("****************************\n"); printf("1，输出相反数 ，输出相反数\n"); printf("2，输出平方数 ，输出平方数\n"); printf(“3，输出开方根 ，输出开方根\n"); printf("4，退出 ，退出\n"); printf("****************************\n"); …… Ch7_7_5.c
Ch7_7_3.c
例7.4 输入一字符，如果是Y, N或y, n，则分别执行一 输入一字符，如果是Y, N或 n， 输出语句，如果是其他字母则执行另一输出语句。 输出语句，如果是其他字母则执行另一输出语句。
#include <stdio.h> void main() { char ch; printf("Please input Y/N (y/n): "); scanf("%c", &ch); ….

第7章 函数与预处理命令

第7章 函数与预处理命令
类型省略时 默认为int 类型
例如：求两个数的最大值。 int max(int x,int y) { int z; 没有形式参数 z = x > y ? x : y; 为无参函数 return( z ); }
龙诚数码：
9
形参也可以这样定义 int max(x,y) int x,y; { int z; z = x > y ? x : y; return( z ); }
龙诚数码：
【例7.1】求一个整数的立方。
int cube (int x) /* 函数定义 */ { return (x * x * x); } main( ) 程序的执行总是 { int f, a; 从main函数开始 printf("\nEnter an integer number："); scanf("%d", &a); 函数调用 f = cube (a); printf("%d * %d * %d = %d\n", a, a, a, f); 程序运行情况如下： } Enter an integer number：2 2*2*2=8
a=9,b=5
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龙诚数码：
2.函数的类型与函数的返回值
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【例7.6】输出两个数中的大数。 ⑴ 函数的类型 max(int x,int y) 说明： { int z; ①函数的类型 z=x>y?x:y; 决定了函数返 return (z); /* 返回z的值 */ 回值的类型。 } 若省略函数的 main( ) 类型，系统默 { int a,b,c; 认其为int型。 scanf("%d,%d",&a,&b); ②无返回值的 c=max(a,b); 函数应将其类 printf("max is %d\n",c); 型定义为void } （空）类型。

大学汽车专业英语教材

大学汽车专业英语教材

大学汽车专业英语教材Chapter 1: Introduction to Automotive Engineering 1.1 Overview of the Automotive Industry1.2 Importance of English in the Automotive Field 1.3 Basic Terminology in Automotive Engineering 1.3.1 Vehicle Components and Systems1.3.2 Technical Terms and Definitions1.4 Careers in Automotive Engineering1.5 Study Tips for Automotive Engineering Students Chapter 2: Automotive Design and Development2.1 Vehicle Design Process2.1.1 Concept Development2.1.2 Design Specifications2.1.3 Styling and Aesthetics2.2 Vehicle Testing and Validation2.2.1 Performance Testing2.2.2 Safety Testing2.2.3 Environmental Testing2.3 Materials Used in Automotive Design2.3.1 Metals2.3.2 Polymers2.3.3 Composites2.4 Case Studies of Successful Automotive Design Projects Chapter 3: Automotive Powertrain Systems3.1 Internal Combustion Engines3.1.1 Engine Components and Operations3.1.2 Types of Engines3.1.3 Alternative Powertrain Technologies3.2 Transmission Systems3.2.1 Manual Transmissions3.2.2 Automatic Transmissions3.2.3 Continuously Variable Transmissions (CVTs)3.3 Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Technologies3.3.1 Hybrid Electric Vehicles3.3.2 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles3.3.3 Electric Vehicles3.4 Case Studies on Innovative Powertrain Systems Chapter 4: Automotive Electronics and Control Systems4.1 Introduction to Automotive Electronics4.2 Engine Control Systems4.2.1 Electronic Fuel Injection (EFI)4.2.2 Ignition Systems4.2.3 Engine Management Systems4.3 Vehicle Communication Systems4.3.1 Controller Area Network (CAN)4.3.2 In-Car Entertainment Systems4.3.3 Telematics Systems4.4 Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)4.4.1 Adaptive Cruise Control4.4.2 Lane Departure Warning Systems4.4.3 Collision Avoidance Systems4.5 Case Studies on Automotive Electronics and Control Systems Chapter 5: Vehicle Dynamics and Suspension Systems5.1 Basics of Vehicle Dynamics5.1.1 Vehicle Handling and Stability5.1.2 Tire Behavior and Performance5.1.3 Braking Systems5.2 Suspension Systems5.2.1 Types of suspensions5.2.2 Suspension Design and Tuning5.3 Steering Systems5.3.1 Rack and Pinion Steering5.3.2 Power Steering Systems5.3.3 Electronic Steering Systems5.4 Case Studies on Vehicle Dynamics and Suspension Systems Chapter 6: Automotive Safety and Crashworthiness6.1 Importance of Automotive Safety6.2 Passive Safety Systems6.2.1 Seatbelts and Restraint Systems6.2.2 Airbag Systems6.2.3 Safety Cage Design6.3 Active Safety Systems6.3.1 Anti-lock Braking Systems (ABS)6.3.2 Electronic Stability Control (ESC)6.3.3 Adaptive Headlights6.4 Crashworthiness and Impact Analysis6.4.1 Crash Simulation and Testing6.4.2 Energy Absorption Structures6.4.3 Case Studies on Automotive SafetyChapter 7: Automotive Manufacturing and Quality Control7.1 Automotive Manufacturing Processes7.1.1 Stamping7.1.2 Welding7.1.3 Assembly7.2 Lean Manufacturing Principles in the Automotive Industry7.3 Quality Control and Assurance7.3.1 Six Sigma Methodology7.3.2 Statistical Process Control7.3.3 Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)7.4 Case Studies on Automotive Manufacturing and Quality ControlConclusionIn conclusion, this English textbook for university-level automotive engineering students provides comprehensive coverage of essential topics in the field. From the fundamentals of automotive design and development to advanced concepts in automotive electronics and control systems, this textbook aims to equip students with the necessary knowledge and skills tosucceed in their future careers. By studying this textbook, students will gain a solid foundation in both technical English vocabulary and automotive engineering principles.。

C#代码--编写高质量C#程序

C#代码--编写高质量C#程序

1.1 换行的讲究 51.1.1 寻找最佳的断行位置51.1.2 每行只写一条语句71.1.3 分行定义变量81.2 避免代码过于拥挤91.2.1 使用空行分隔代码块101.2.2 使用空格降低代码密度131.3 如何缩进151.3.1 嵌套或包含关系引起的缩进171.3.2 因换行而产生的缩进201.3.3 使用空格还是Tab键211.4 大括号 221.4.1 大括号的位置221.4.2 空的大括号结构231.4.3 仅包含单个语句的结构体261.5 保持项目文件的条理性291.5.1 解决方案的结构呼应291.5.2 代码文件的结构291.5.3 使用#region标记32第2章养成良好的注释习惯332.1 何时需要注释332.1.1 解释代码的意图342.1.2 对局部变量的说明352.1.3 充当代码标题362.1.4 指出例外情况402.1.5 开发提示 402.2 注释的格式 412.2.1 单行注释422.2.2 多行注释442.3 正确使用XML文档注释452.3.1 结构与类的XML文档注释462.3.2 属性的XML文档注释472.3.3 方法的XML文档注释492.3.4 构造函数的XML文档注释502.3.5 事件的XML文档注释512.3.6 枚举类型的XML文档注释532.3.7 泛型的XML文档注释532.3.8 其他标记54总的来说，如果多看看MSDN自身的类库参考，你会发现其实XML文档注释最终形成的就是这样的结果。

MSDN本身就是一个最好的XML文档注释的范例，我们可以在实践过程中不断地进行模仿和学习。

第7章如何使用函数577.1 为什么要使用函数577.1.1 函数与方法577.1.2 代码复用597.1.3 隐藏细节617.2 函数重载657.2.1 重载的语义657.2.2 保持核心代码唯一707.3 参数的设计747.3.1 参数的命名747.3.2 不要使用保留项747.3.3 变长参数列表757.3.4 何时使用ref参数和out参数777.3.5 参数的顺序787.3.6 重载函数的参数一致797.4 参数检查827.4.1检查零值及空引用837.4.2 检查枚举类型847.4.3 防止数据被篡改857.4.4 在何处检查合法性877.5 函数出口887.5.1 返回值的用法887.5.2 离开函数的时机89假设我们写的是文章而不是程序，那么你一定觉得诸如文章应该分为若干个自然段、每段开头空两格之类的规则是理所当然的。

最优控制理论第七章

最优控制理论第七章
Chapter 7 Applications to marketing
State Equation: Sale expressed in terms of advertising (which is a control variable) Objective: Profit maximization
Defining as the elasticity of demand with respect to goodwill and using (7.3), (7.5), and (7.9), we can derive ( sto obtain the optimal long-run stationary equilibrium or turnpike . That is, we obtain from (7.8) by using . We then set and in (7.9). Finally, from (7.11) and (7.9), or also the singular level can be obtained as
Because of these conditions it is clear that for a given G0 , a choice of 0 such that (0 ,G0 ) is in Regions II and III, will not lead to a path converging to the turnpike point . On the other hand, the choice of (0 ,G0 ) in Region I when or (0 ,G0 ) in Region IV when , can give a path that converges to From a result in Coddington and Levinson(1955), it can be shown that at least in the neighborhood of , there exists a locus of optimum starting points . Given , we choose 0 on the saddle point path in Region I of figure 7.3. Clearly, the initial control u*(0)=f1(0). Furthermore, (t) is increasing and by (7.17), u(t) is increasing, so that in this case the optimal policy is to advertise at a low rate initially and

UML与Rational Rose

13
图 图是用来表达一个视图的内容的，通常， 一个视图由多张图组成。UML语言共定义了 9种不同的图，把它们有机地结合起来就可 以描述系统的所有视图。
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模型元素 可以在图中使用的概念(例如，用例、类、 对象、消息和关系)，统称为模型元素。模 型元素在图中用相应的视图元素(图形符号) 表示。一个模型元素可以用在多个不同的 图中，不管怎样使用，它总是具有相同的 含义和相同的符号表示。
1996年6月和10月分别发布了UML0.9, UML0.91。 1997年1月，UML1.0被提交给对象管理组织OMG。 1997年9月，提交UML1.1，1997年11月被OMG采纳作为基于面向对
象技术的标准建模语言。 1998、1999、2000、2001年分别发布了UML1.2、UML1.3、
7.1概述 7.2静态建模机制 7.3动态建模机制 7.4描述物理架构的机制
1
7.1 概述
7.1.1 UML的产生和发展
UML(Unified Modeling Language)的概念于1996年由面向对象方法 领域的三位著名专家Grady Booch，James Rumbaugh和Ivar Jacobson提出的。
8
UML中的基本元模型有： 操作者(actor)：
用例(use case)：)：
10
消息(messages)：
关联(association)：
聚集(aggregation)：
其它：
11
(2) UML的表示法
UML的表示方法定义了UML的符号表示，为开发者或开发 工具提供使用这种图形表示方法为系统建模。这些符号或 文字表达是应用级的模型，在语义上是UML元模型的实例。
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07-面向对象模型(OOM)

14
7.2.3定义用例图(续)
图7.3 销售管理用例图
定义用例图的具体步骤如下： (1) 新建用例图 新建用例图的方法有三种：
15
7.2.3定义用例图(续)
– 在新建OOM模型时，从Diagram中选择Use Case Diagram图形。 – 在浏览器窗口找到已有的OOM模型，单击鼠标 右键，从快捷菜单中选择 New→Use Case Diagram。 – 在现有的OOM图形设计工作区中，单击鼠标右 键，从快捷菜单中选择Diagram→New Diagram→Use Case Diagram。
7.1 什么是面向对象模型 7.2创建OOM 7. 3 OOM的代码生成技术 7.4本章小结
1
7.1 什么是面向对象模型
• 面向对象模型(Object-Oriented Model，OOM)是 利用UML(统一系统的工作状态，以助于用户、管 理人员、系统分析建模语言)来描述系统结构的模 型，它从不同角度表现员、开发人员、测试人员 和其它人员之间进行信息交流。 • 一个OOM包含一系列包，类，接口和他们的关系， 这些对象一起形成一个软件系统所有 ( 或部份)逻 辑设计视图的类结构。 一个OOM本质上是软件 系统的一个静态概念模型。
２.模型对象之间的关系 • 参与者通过关联与用例发生作用，关联用一条线 段表示。用例之间的依赖关系用带有箭头的一条 虚线表示，系统默认提供了扩展(Extend)和包括 (Include)两种依赖关系，除此之外用例之间还存 在泛化关系。表7-2列出了用例图中模型对象之间 的关系。
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7.2.3定义用例图(续)
参与者
用例 派生关系 执行者与用例之间的关系 依赖关系
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7.2.3定义用例图(续)

数据库系统原理教程(第七章)清华大学


SYBASE关系数据库产品（续）
Sybase System 11.5 – SQLServer，关系数据库管理系统，专门负 责高速计算、数据管理、事务管理
ORACLE的Internet解决方案（续）
Oracle WebServer 2.0 增加了JAVA解释器和
LiveHTML解释器，使其能支持多种语言 由Web Request Broker(WRB), WebServer SDK 和 Webserver管理工具组成 – WRB是一个多线索多进程的HTTP服务器 – WebServer SDK 是一个开放的应用开发环境， 封装了WRB应用编程接口，允许用户使用 JAVA， LiveHTML， C＋＋等web应用开发工 具
ORACLE工具（续）
Designer/2000 – CASE工具，帮助用户对复杂系统进行建模、 分析和设计 – 完成概要设计后，可以用来帮助绘制E－R 图、功能分层图、数据流图和方阵图，自动 生成数据字典、数据库表、应用代码和文档 – 由BPR， Modellers， Generators等组成
ORACLE工具（续）
Developer/2000（续） – ORACLE Forms 是快速生成基于屏幕的复 杂应用的工具，所生产的应用程序具有查询 和操纵数据的功能，可以现实多媒体信息， 具有GUI界面 – ORACLE Reprots是快速生产报表工具，如 普通报表、主从式报表、矩阵报表 – ORACLE Graphics是快速生产图形应用的 工具 – ORACLE Books用于生成联机文档
7. ORACLE的Internet解决方案
Oracle WebServer 1.0 主要由Oracle
WebListener， Oracle WebAgent和ORACLE7 服务器部分组成

7.shixian2上


7.4.4 回归测试
在集成测试过程中每当一个新模块结合进 来时，程序就发生了变化：建立了新的数据 流路径，可能出现了新的I/O操作，激活了新 的控制逻辑。 这些变化有可能使原来工作正常的功能出 现问题。 在集成测试的范畴中，所谓回归测试是指 重新执行已经做过的测试的某个子集，以保 证上述这些变化没有带来非预期的副作用。
一种方法的优点正好对应于另一种方法的缺点。 自顶向下测试方法的主要优点是不需要测试驱动 程序，能够在测试阶段的早期实现并验证系统的主 要功能，而且能在早期发现上层模块的接口错误。 自顶向下测试方法的主要缺点是需要存根程序， 可能遇到与此相联系的测试困难，低层关键模块中 的错误发现较晚，而且用这种方法在早期不能充分 展开人力。 可以看出，自底向上测试方法的优缺点与上述自 顶向下测试方法的优缺点刚好相反。
上述第二步到第四步实质上构成了一个循 环。图7.4描绘了自底向上的结合过程。 随着结合向上移动，对测试驱动程序的需 要也减少了。 事实上，如果软件结构的顶部两层用自顶 向下的方法组装，可以明显减少驱动程序的 数目，而且族的结合也将大大简化。
图7.4 自底向上结合
7.4.3 不同集成测试策略的比较
单元测试—白盒测试
module to be tested results software engineer test cases
interface local data structures boundary conditions independent paths error handling paths
图7.3 自顶向下结合
把模块结合进软件结构的具体过程由下述4个步骤 完成：
第一步，对主控制模块进行测试，测试时用存根程序代 替所有直接附属于主控制模块的模块； 第二步，根据选定的结合策略(深度优先或宽度优先)， 每次用一个实际模块代换一个存根程序(新结合进来的模 块往往又需要新的存根程序)； 第三步，在结合进一个模块的同时进行测试； 第四步，为了保证加入模块没有引进新的错误，可能需 要进行回归测试(即，全部或部分地重复以前做过的测试)。
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374Chapter NineDecision AnalysisThe patient has assigned the following utilities to the possibleoutcomes:The dollar amount given next to each branch is the cash flowgenerated along that branch, where these intermediate cash flowsadd up to the total net cash flow shown to the right of each termi-nal branch. (The unknown amount for the top branch is repre-sented by the variable x.) The decision maker has a utilityfunction U(y) ϭy1/3where yis the total net cash flow after a ter-

minal branch. The resulting utilities for the various terminalbranches are shown to the right of the decision tree.Use these utilities to analyze the decision tree. Then deter-mine the value of xfor which the decision maker is indifferentbetween decision alternatives A1and A2.

A9.43.Reconsider the Goferbroke Co. case study when usingutilities, as presented in Section 9.9.

a.Beginning with the decision tree shown in Figure9.28(available in one of this chapter’s Excel files),prepare to perform sensitivity analysis by expandingand organizing the spreadsheet to (1) consolidate thedata and results in one section and (2) incorporate theExcel template for posterior probabilities in anothersection (similar to what was done in Figure 9.18).b.Perform sensitivity analysis by re-solving the deci-sion tree (after using the Excel template for posteriorprobabilities to revise these probabilities) when theprior probability of oil is changed in turn to 0.15,0.2, 0.3, and 0.35.

In addition, these utilities should be incremented by Ϫ2 if thepatient incurs the cost of the test for disease A and by Ϫ1 if thepatient (or the patient’s estate) incurs the cost of the treatment fordisease A.Use decision analysis with a complete decision tree to deter-mine if the patient should undergo the test for disease A and thenhow to proceed (receive the treatment for disease A?) to maxi-mize the patient’s expected utility.

9.42.Consider the following decision tree, where the proba-bilities for each event node are shown in parentheses.

OutcomeUtilityDie0Survive with poor health10Return to good health30

Payoff$6,859–$1,331–$1250Utilityx1/3

19

–11

–50

$x$x

+$7,600(0.60)

–$590(0.40)

$16+$141(0.50)

$0–$600(0.50)A1A2–$141

Case 9-1Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?

You are a contestant on “Who Wants to be a Millionaire?” Youalready have answered the $250,000 question correctly and nowmust decide if you would like to answer the $500,000 question.You can choose to walk away at this point with $250,000 in win-nings or you may decide to answer the $500,000 question. If youanswer the $500,000 question correctly, you can then choose towalk away with $500,000 in winnings or go on and try to answerthe $1,000,000 question. If you answer the $1,000,000 questioncorrectly, the game is over and you win $1,000,000. If you answereither the $500,000 or the $1,000,000 question incorrectly, thegame is over immediately and you take home “only” $32,000.A feature of the game “Who Wants to be a Millionaire?” isthat you have three “lifelines”—namely “50–50,” “ask the audi-ence,” and “phone a friend.” At this point (after answering the$250,000 question), you already have used two of these life-lines, but you have the “phone a friend” lifeline remaining. Withthis option, you may phone a friend to obtain advice on the cor-rect answer to a question before giving your answer. You mayuse this option only once (i.e., you can use it on either the$500,000 question or the $1,000,000 question, but not both).

Since some of your friends are smarter than you are, “phone afriend” significantly improves your odds for answering a ques-tion correctly. Without “phone a friend,” if you choose to answerthe $500,000 question you have a 65 percent chance of answer-ing correctly, and if you choose to answer the $1,000,000 ques-tion you have a 50 percent chance of answering correctly (thequestions get progressively more difficult). With “phone afriend,” you have an 80 percent chance of answering the$500,000 question correctly and a 65 percent chance of answer-ing the $1,000,000 question correctly.

a.Use TreePlan to construct and solve a decision tree to decidewhat to do. What is the best course of action, assuming yourgoal is to maximize your expectedwinnings?b.Use the equivalent lottery method to determine your personalutility function (in particular, your utility values for all of thepossible payoffs in the game).c.Re-solve the decision tree, replacing the payoffs with yourutility values, to maximize your expected utility. Does thebest course of action change?