ERP项目实施成功因素和风险管理
参考国外的一些文献资料，一个成功的ERP项目，往往要花费数年时间，数千万美元得以完成。再回头看国内，随着ERP怀疑论的抬头，价格战的兴起，ERP作为一种软件供应商的产品，却有走下神坛趋势。就连ERP界的首领SAP也推出了Business One产品，价格低于十万。不过，即便ERP软件能做到免费，或如IBM推崇的按需收费的境界，从整个企业实施的角度，考虑到人员、培训、维护、业务重组、二次开发、三次、n次开发，其费用应该也在数百万乃至千万人民币的规模。这对于国内企业而言，已是不小的数目了。
但是，还是有不少企业怀着美丽的梦想，踏上ERP实施的艰辛之旅。其中又有不少项目以失败告终。而对于那些最后的幸存者，是否就可以还戟入仓，饮酒高歌呢？
事实上，企业在成功实施ERP项目后，将面对较实施前更大的风险。在未来的五到十年中，是否有一个扎实的ERP风险管理机制将决定了企业是否能在最初的ERP投资中真正获益。
1998年Thomas H. Davenport在哈佛商务评论发表了名为《将企业放入企业系统》的文章(Putting the ent ERP rise into the ent ERP rise system)。该文系统地提出了企业系统，或称ERP系统给企业运作带来积极及消极的引响。同时也直接提出了未来企业必须面对的一个风险：将整个企业放入企业系统中的风险。
按照美国项目管理协会对风险的定义，“风险”是指对项目有利或不利的不确定因素。
项目是“为完成某一独特的产品或服务所做的一次性努力”，项目的“独特性”决定了项目不可能是以与以前完全相同的方式、由与以前完全相同的人来完成的，同时，项目所要创造的产品或服务，以及项目可能涉及的范围、时间及成本都不可能在项目开始时完全确定，因此，在项目进行过程中也相应会出现大量的不确定性，即项目风险。本文以下所提到的“风险”是指对项目“不利”的不确定因素。
对项目不利的风险存在于任何项目中，并往往会给项目的推进和项目的成功带来负面影响。风险一旦发生，它的影响是多方面的，如导致项目产品/服务的功能无法满足客户的需要、项目费用超出预算、项目计划拖延或被迫取消等，其最终体现为客户满意度的降低。因此，识别风险、评估风险并采取措施应对风险即风险管理对项目管理具有十分重要的意义。
风险管理的具体内容
项目风险管理主要分为以下几个步骤：风险识别、定性/定量风险分析、风险应对计划编制及风险监控。
1.风险识别
风险识别，是指识别并记录可能对项目造成不利影响的因素。由于项目处于不断发展变化的过程中，因此风险识别也贯穿于整个项目实施的全过程,而不仅仅是项目的开始阶段。风险识别不是一次性的工作，而需要更多系统的、横向的思维。几乎所有关于项目的计划与信息都可能作为风险识别的依据，如项目进度及成本计划、工作分解结构、项目组织结构、项目范围、类似项目的历史信息等。
需要注意的是，并非所有的风险都可以通过风险识别来进行管理。风险识别只能发现已知风险（如：已知项目组织中某一成员能力不能完全满足要求）或已知未知风险（known-unknown,即“事件名称已知”，如“客户方人员参与力度不足”）；而某些风险，由于项目的独特性，不可能在其发生前预知(unknown-unknown,即未知未知风险)。
2.定性/定量风险分析
通过风险识别过程所识别出的潜在风险数量很多，但这些潜在的风险对项目的影响是各不相同的。“风险分析”即通过分析、比较、评估等各种方式，对确定各风险的重要性，对风险排序并评估其对项目可能后果，从而使项目实施人员可以将主要精力集中于为数不多的主要风险上，从而使项目的整体风险得到有效的控制。
风险分析主要可采用的方法有：风险概率/影响评估矩阵、敏感性分析、模拟等。在进行上述分析时，主要关注以下几个风险因素：
风险概率：即风险事件发生的可能性的百分比表示。这个数字是通过主观判断而获得的，如专家评估、访谈或根据以前类似项目的历史信息。
风险影响：即风险发生可能对项目造成的影响大小。这种影响可能是时间上的，可能是成本上的，也可能是其他各方面的。
风险值（预期值EMV）：风险值=风险概率×风险影响，是对风险对项目造成的影响的最直接评估，它综合考虑了概率与影响两方面的因素。
3.风险应对计划编制
风险应对计划的目的在于通过制定相应的措施，来应对风险对项目可能造成的威胁。最常采用的应对威胁的几种措施是：规避、减轻、转移、接受。
规避，即通过消除风险的成因来消除该风险；
减轻，即通过采取措施降低“风险概率”或“风险影响”,从而达到降低风险值的结果；
转移，即将风险转移到另一方，如购买保险、分包等；
接受，即对该风险不采取措施，接受其造成的结果，或在该风险发生后再采取应急计划进行处理。
具体采用何种方式来应对某一风险，取决于该风险的风险值（EMV）、拟采取应对措施的可能成本、项目管理人员对待风险的态度（效用函数）类型等各方面，不可一概而论。
风险应对计划是针对已识别的风险进行的；对于未知未知的风险，不可能预选制定相应的应对计划或应急计划，因此，可以利用管理储备来应对。
4.风险监控
风险监控主要包括以下几方面的任务：
1）在项目进行过程中跟踪已识别风险、监控残余风险并识别新风险：随着项目的实施以及风险应对措施的执行，各种对项目的影响因素处于不断变化的过程中，因此，需要在整个项目过程中，时刻监督风险的发展与变化情况，确定伴随某些风险的消失而来的新的风险并制定相应的处理措施。
2）保证风险应对计划的执行并评估风险应对计划执行效果。评估的方法可以是项目周期（阶段）性回顾、绩效评估等。
3）对突发的风险或“接受”的风险采取适当的权变措施。
通过风险监控过程，项目人员持续更新项目风险列表，并通过重复上述各步骤保证项目风险始终处于受控状态。
ERP项目实施的风险管理
不同类型的项目有不同类型的风险。ERP项目实施的风险同样有其特殊性。以下对ERP 项目实施过程中的风险管理措施做一简要说明，一家之言，仅供参考。
1.ERP项目实施中的主要风险及应对措施
如前所述，“几乎所有关于项目的计划与信息都可能作为风险识别的依据，如项目进度及成本计划、工作分解结构、项目组织结构、项目范围、类似项目的历史信息等。”在ERP 项目的风险识别过程中，可以以项目计划为线索，识别项目在各方面的风险。
实施过程中，应特别关注以下几方面的风险：
1)项目范围的风险
项目采购管理通常有三种合同方式，即：固定价或总价合同、成本报销（加奖励）合同、单价合同。通常不确定性越大、风险越大的项目，越趋向于采用靠后的合同方式。这也是国外及国内部分ERP供应商在实施服务中采用按人天提供服务并收取费用的原因。但采用这种方式，买方（即客户）存在较大的风险，因此，国内很多客户倾向于以固定价格订立实施服务合同。而这种合同方式，则对于卖方（即顾问方）存在较大风险。在此前提下，若项目范围定义不清晰，可能导致买卖双方对项目范围的认知产生分歧：卖方希望尽量缩小实施范围，以最小的成本结束项目；而买方则希望将ERP系统的所有功能尽可能多的实施，以固定的价格获得最大的收益。若双方的分歧较大，不能达成一致，则必然会造成效率低下，相互扯皮。
因此，ERP项目合同中，应对项目的实施范围做尽可能清晰的界定，切不可停留在“实施财务模块”或是“实施应收、应付、总账管理”之类的层面上。宁愿多花一些时间在项目实施前的范围界定工作上，也不要在项目实施过程中，面对ERP繁多的功能，实施方与用户方争执不下，或被迫让步，投入更大的精力于项目中，而导致项目不能按时完成。
2）项目进度的风险
关于ERP项目实施的周期，目前在宣传上有强调“快速”的倾向。但ERP项目进度的控制绝非易事，不仅取决于顾问公司的能力，同时也在很大程度上受到客户方对ERP期望值是否合理、对范围控制是否有效、对项目投入（包括人员时间的投入和资金等的投入）是否足够等方面的影响。
由神州数码提供ERP系统并负责实施的昆山世同金属，在较短时间内上线成功，原因之一就是易飞ERP实施小组完整成熟的导入机制及顾问人员卓越的素质，有效顺利地协助了世同金属的上线工作。从上线开始便有专业顾问负责整个导入实施的计划，长期积累的行业知识及管理经验也提升了整个ERP的运作水平，妥善处理了上线工作中的问题。用户对项目分阶段实施有强烈的认同，在第一阶段仅强调对基本功能的实现，而将大量的工作留到上线后或持续改进过程中。
而实际操作中，并非所有用户对ERP实施都有这种理解与认同，因此，在项目进度计划时，一味在项目进度计划时求快，甚或是刻意追求某个具有特殊意义的日期作为项目里程碑，将对项目进度控制造成很大压力。
事实上，很多项目的失败，正是起因于项目进度出现拖延，而导致项目团队士气低落，效率低下。因此，ERP项目实施的时间管理，需要充分考虑各种潜在因素，适当留有余地；任务分解详细度适中，便于考核；在执行过程中，应强调项目按进度执行的重要性，在考虑任何问题时，都要将保持进度作为先决条件；同时，合理利用赶工及快速跟进等方法，充分利用资源。
3）项目人力资源的风险
人力资源是ERP项目实施过程中最为关键的资源。保证合适的人，以足够的精力参与到项目中来，是项目成功实施的基本保证。
ERP项目实施中存在各种角色，对各种角色应具备的素质，我们在此不再赘述。要降低项目的人力资源风险，就要保证进入到项目中并承担角色的各类项目干系人满足项目要求。因此，实施双方应对参与人员进行认真的评估，这种评估应该是双方面的，不仅是用户对咨询顾问的评估，也应包括咨询公司对参与项目的用户方成员（在国内目前的环境下，主要是指关键用户）的评估。同时，应保证项目人员对项目的投入程度。应将参与ERP项目人员的业绩评估与ERP项目实施的状况相关联，明确ERP项目是在该阶段项目相关人员最重要的本职工作；制定适当的奖惩措施；在企业中建立“一把手工程”的思想，层层“一把手”，即各级负责人针对ERP实施向下行使全权、对上担负全责，将一把手从个体概念延伸到有机结合的群体概念。
4）对ERP认识不正确的风险
有的企业把ERP视为企业管理的灵丹妙药，认为既然ERP“功能强大”，只要上了ERP，企业的所有问题便迎刃而解，或者以为企业的所有流程都可以纳入到ERP中来；还有的人简单的将ERP视为当前业务流程的电子化。
要防范或减轻这种风险，需要对用户进行大量的培训：ERP的由来，ERP的功能，实施ERP的目的与期望等等，尽可能在用户产生“ERP不能满足我的需求和期望”这种想法之前，让用户知道“现阶段对ERP合理的需求期望是什么”。
2．ERP项目实施中的风险监控
可以采取以下措施对ERP项目实施中的风险进行监控，以防止危及项目成败的风险发生。
1)建立并及时更新项目风险列表及风险排序。项目管理人员应随时关注与关键风险相关
因素的变化情况，及时决定何时、采用何种风险应对措施。
2）风险应对审计：随时关注风险应对措施（规避、减轻、转移）实施的效果，对残余风险进行评估。
3）建立报告机制，及时将项目中存在的问题反映到项目经理或项目管理层。
4）定期召集项目干系人召开项目会议，对风险状况进行评估，并通过各方面对项目实施的反应来发现新风险。
5）更新相关数据库如风险识别检查表，以利于今后类似项目的实施。
6）引入第三方咨询，定期对项目进行质量检查，以防范大的风险。
总之,实施信息化，企业就要面对巨大风险，有时甚至是将自己的生死交到了信息化手上。但如果不实施信息化，企业就要被同行所超越，进而湮没在全球化的浪潮中，这是每一家企业都不愿意看到的。可看看常见的资料，都是教你如何去规避信息化风险，而没有人愿意直面风险，这不能不说是信息化的缺失。如果我们的企业、厂商能够更加开明些，丢掉那所谓的面子问题，将他们面对风险时的经验与大众共享，相信信息化的失败率绝对要比现在少得多。
科技外文文献
Discussing about the successful factors of
ERP projects implementation and the risk management
Refers to the overseas some literature material, a successful ERP project, often needs to spend several year times, number thousands of US dollars can complete. Again turns head looks at the home, along with ERP skepticisms gaining ground, price war starting, ERP took one kind of software supplier's product, has actually goes down the god world tendency. ERP leader SAP also promoted Business the One product, the price has been lower than 100,000.Even if the ERP software can achieve free, or like the IBM esteem according to the boundary which must collect fees, implements the angle from the entire enterprise, considers the personnel, training, the maintenance, the service reorganization, the re-development, three, n development, its expense should also in several 1,000,000 and even surely the scale. This speaking of the domestic enterprise, already was not the small number.
But, some many enterprises harbor the beautiful dream, steps the ERP implementation the difficult travel. In which also has many projects to be defeated comes to an end. But regarding these final survivors, whether can the halberd be also put in storage, drinks wine to sing loudly? In fact, the enterprise implements the ERP project after the success will face implements a bigger risk. In future five to ten years in, some solid ERP risk management mechanism had decided whether the enterprise can obtain benefits truly in the initial ERP investment. In 1998 Thomas H. Davenport has published named "Puts in Enterprise System" the article in the Harvard commerce commentary (Putting the enterprise into the enterprise system).This article proposed systematically the enterprise system, or called the ERP system the operation brings for the enterprise positive and negative directs the sound. Simultaneously also directly proposed the future enterprise will have to face a risk: Puts in the enterprise system the entire enterprise the risk. According to US Project management Association to the risk the definition, "the risk" is refers to the project advantageous or the disadvantageous element of certainty.
The project is "for completes the disposable endeavor which some unique product or the service station do", the project "the distinctive quality" had decided the project not impossible was by with the before identical way, simultaneously, the project which completed by and the before identical person must create the product or the service, as well as the project possibly involved the scope, the time and the cost all not impossible started when the project completely to determine, therefore, carried on in the process in the project also corresponding to be able to appear the massive uncertainty, namely project risk. Below this article mentioned "the risk" is refers to the project "disadvantageously" the element of certainty. Exists to the project disadvantageous risk in any project, often and can give the project the advancement and the project success brings the negative influence. Once the risk occurs,
its influence is various, like causes the project product/service the function to be unable to satisfy the customer the need, the project expense surpasses the budget, the project plan dragging or is compelled to cancel and so on, it finally manifests for customer degree of satisfaction depression. Therefore, the recognition risk, the appraisal risk and take the measure to be supposed to be the risk management have the extremely vital significance to the risk to the project management.
ⅠRisk management concrete content
The project risk management mainly divides into following several steps: The risk recognition, the qualitative/quota risk analysis, the risk should to plan the establishment and the risk monitoring.
1. risk recognitions
The risk recognition, is refers distinguishes and records possibly has the adverse effect to the project the factor. Because the project is in develops in unceasingly the change process, therefore the risk recognition also passes through in the entire project implementation entire process, but is not merely the project initial stage. The risk recognition is not the disposable work, but need more systems, crosswise thought. Possesses nearly about the project plan and the information all possibly takes the risk recognition the basis, like project progress and cost plan, work decomposition structure, project organizational structure, project scope, similar project historical information and so on. Needs to pay attention, all risks all may carry on the management by no means through the risk recognition. The risk recognition only can discover the known risk (for example: In the known project organization some member ability cannot satisfy the request completely) or the known unknown risk (known-unknown, namely "event name known", like "customer side personnel participates in dynamics being insufficient"); Before but certain risks, as a result of the project distinctive quality, not impossible to occur in it know in advance (unknown-unknown, namely unknown-unknown risk).
2. qualitative/quota risk analysis
The latent risk quantity distinguishes which through the risk recognition process are very many, but these latent risks to the project the influence are various. "The risk analysis" namely through the analysis, the comparison, the appraisal and so on each way, to determined various risks the importance, sorts to the risk and appraises it to the project possible consequence, thus causes the project to implement the personnel to be possible to concentrate the main energy in the few in number main risk, thus enable the project the overall risk to be under the effective control.
The risk analysis mainly may use the method includes: Risk probability/influence appraisal matrix, sensitive analysis, simulation and so on. When carries on the above analysis, mainly pays attention to following several risk factor:
Risk probability: Namely the risk event occurs possible percentage expression. This numeral is, like the expert who obtains through the subjective judgment appraises, the interview or the basis before similar project historical information.
Risk influence: Namely the risk has possibly the influence size which creates to the project. This kind of influence is possibly in the time, possibly is in the cost, also is possibly other various aspects.
Risk value (required value EMV): The risk value = risk probability * risk influence, is to the risk the influence most direct appraisal which creates to the project, its overall evaluation probability with has affected two aspects the factors.
3. risks should plan the establishment
The risk should lie in to the plan goal through the formulation corresponding measure, comes to be supposed to the risk the threat which possibly creates to the project .Most often uses should to threat several measures be: The circumvention, reduces, the shift, accepts.
The circumvention, namely eliminates this risk through the elimination risk origin;
Reduces, namely through takes the measure to reduce "the risk probability" or "the risk influence", thus achieved reduces the risk value the result;
The shift, soon the risk shifts to another side, like purchase insurance, sub package and so on;
Accepts, namely does not take the measure to this risk, accepts result which it creates, or occurs after this risk uses the contingency plan to carry on processing again. Selects what method to come specifically to be supposed to some risk, is decided in this risk value (EMV), plans to adopt should to the measure possible cost, the project management personnel treat the risk the manner (utility function) the type and so on various aspects, cannot be generally spoken.
The risk should be aims at the risk to the plan which distinguishes to carry on; Regarding the unknown risk, not impossible to choose in advance the formulation corresponding to be supposed to plan or the contingency plan, therefore, may stockpile using the management should be right.
4. risk monitoring
The risk monitoring mainly includes following several aspects the duty:
1) Carrying on in the process in the project to track has distinguished the risk, the monitoring remaining risk and distinguishes the new risk: Along with the project implementation as well as the risk should to the measure execution, each kind the influence factor be in the process to the project which changes unceasingly, therefore, needs in the entire project process, the time surveillance risk development and the change situation, determined follows the new risk which certain risks vanishing comes and formulates the corresponding processing measure. 2) Guaranteed the risk should to the plan execution and appraised the risk should to plan carry out the effect. The appraisal method may be the project cycle (stage) the natural review, the achievements appraisal and so on. 3) "Accepts" to the sharp-edged risk the risk takes the suitable flexible measure. Through the risk monitoring process, the project personnel renews the project risk tabulation continually, and through the repetition above various steps guaranteed the project risk is at the controlled condition throughout.
ⅡERP project implementation risk management
The different type project has the different type risk. The ERP project implementation risk has its particularity similarly. The following gives a briefing to in the ERP project implementation process risk management measure, the single opinion, only supplies the reference.
1. ERP project implementation main risk and should to the measure
As mentioned above, "possesses nearly about the project plan and the information all possibly takes the risk recognition the basis, like project progress and cost plan, work decomposition structure, project organizational structure, project scope, similar project historical information and so on." In the ERP project risk recognition process, may take the project plan as the clue, the recognition project in various aspects risk. In the implementation process, should pay attention to following several aspects specially the risk:
1) project scope risk
The project purchase management usually has three contract ways, namely: The solid fixed price or the total price contract, the cost reimburse (add reward) the contract, the unit price contract. The usual uncertainty is bigger, a risk bigger project, more tends to in using depends on after the contract way. This also is overseas and the domestic part ERP supplier uses in the implementation service according to the human day provides serves and charges the fee the reason. But selects this method, the buyer (i.e. customer) has the big risk, therefore, the domestic very many customers favor in work out the implementation contract of service by the fixed price. But this contract way, then (i.e. consultant side) has the big risk regarding the seller. Under this premise, if the project scope definition is not clear, possibly causes the round turns to have the difference to the project scope cognition: The seller hoped reduces the implementation scope as far as possible, by smallest cost closing performance; But the buyer hoped ERP system all function many implementations, obtains as far as possible by the fixed price the greatest income. If the bilateral difference is big, cannot achieve consistently, then can create the efficiency inevitably to be low, wrangles mutually.
Therefore, in the ERP project contract, should make as far as possible the clear limits to the project implementation scope, cuts cannot pause in "the implementation finance module" perhaps "the implementation
receivable, the manipulation, the general ledger management" and so on in stratification plane.
Rather multi-flowered some time before in project implementation scope limits work, also do not have in the project implementation process, facing ERP many functions, the implementation side and the user side is unyielding, or the forced concessions, invests a bigger energy in the project, but causes the project not to be able to complete on time.
2) project progress risk
About the ERP project implementation cycle, at present has emphasizes "fast" the tendency in the propaganda. But ERP project progress control certainly not easy matter, not only is decided by consultant firm's ability, simultaneously also to a great extent receives the customer side to the ERP expected value whether reasonable, to the scope controls whether effective, to project investment (including personnel time investment and fund and so on investment) whether enough and so on aspect influences.
Provides elder brother Shan Shitong by the divine land numerical code who the ERP system and is responsible to implement the metal, in a short time makes something a matter of political line successfully, one of reasons is easy to fly the ERP implementation group integrity mature to induct the mechanism and consultant personnel's remarkable quality, smoothly has assisted the world effectively with the metal political line work. Starts from the political line then to have special consultant to be responsible to induct the implementation entire the plan, the long-term accumulation profession knowledge and the managerial experience have also promoted the entire ERP operation level, has properly dealt with in the political line work issue. The user has the intense approval to the project minute stage implementation, only emphasizes in the first stage to the basic function realization, but the massive work will remain after the political line or improve in continually the process.
But in the actual operation, by no means all users all have this kind of understanding and the approval to the ERP implementation, therefore, in project progress plan time, constantly when project progress plan strives for quickly, even is pursues some to have the special significance date sedulously to take the project milestone, will create the very tremendous pressure to the project progress control. In fact, the very many project defeat, is precisely is attributed to the project progress to appear the dragging, but causes the project team despondency, the efficiency to be low. Therefore, the ERP project implementation time management, needs to consider each kind of latency fully, suitable conservative; The duty decomposes the detailed degree of fineness to be moderate, is advantageous for the inspection; In the implementation, should emphasize the project according to the progress execution importance, in considered when any question, all must take the maintenance progress the precondition; At the same time, reasonably and follows up fast using rushing a job and so on the methods, uses the resources fully.
3) project human resources risk
The human resources are in the ERP project implementation process the most essential resources. Guaranteed the appropriate person, participates in the project by the enough energy, is the project success implementation basic guarantee.
In the ERP project implementation has each kind of role, should have the quality to each kind of role, we no longer give unnecessary detail in this. Must reduce the project the human resources risk, must guarantee enters and undertakes role each kind of project to the project in to do is the human satisfies the project request. Therefore, implements both sides to be supposed to participate in the personnel carrying on the earnest appraisal, this kind of appraisal should be the bilateral surface, not only is the user to consults consultant's appraisal, also should include the consultant firm to the user side member who participates in the project (in under the domestic present environment, mainly is refers to essential user) the appraisal. At the same time, should guarantee the project personnel to the project investment degree. Should participation the ERP project personnel's achievement to appraise and the ERP project implementation condition is connected, is clear about the ERP project is in this stage project correlation personnel most important labor of duty; Formulates the suitable rewards and punishment measure; Establishes "the member project" in the enterprise the thought, layer upon layer "the member", namely
all levels of people in charge downward exercises in view of the ERP implementation plenary powers, shoulders the entire responsibility to on, extends the member from the individual concept to the organic synthesis community concept.
4) The risk that people don't understand ERP correctly
Some enterprises regard as ERP the business management the panacea, thought since ERP "the function is formidable", so long as on ERP, enterprise's all questions have then been easily solved, or thought enterprise's all flows all may integrate to ERP in; Also some people simple regard as ERP the current service flow the computerization.
Must guard against or reduce this kind of risk, needs to carry on massive training to the user: The ERP origin, the ERP function, implements ERP goal and expectation and so on, "ERP cannot meet my need in the user productions and expect" as far as possible in front of this idea, lets the user know "the present stage to the ERP reasonable demand expectation is any".
2. ERP project implementation risk monitoring
May take following measure to carry on the monitoring to in the ERP project implementation risk, prevented endangers the project success or failure the risk occurrence.
1) Establishes and the prompt renewal project risk tabulation and risk sorting. The project management personnel should as necessary pay attention to and the essential risk correlation factor change situation, decided promptly when, uses what kind of risk to be supposed to the measure.
2) the risk should to audit: Pays attention to the risk to be supposed as necessary to the measure (circumvention, to reduce the effect which, shift) implements, carries on the appraisal to the remaining risk.
3) establishes the report mechanism, the question which has the project in reflects promptly to project manager or the project management level.
4) convenes the project to do is regularly the human holds the project conference, carries on the appraisal to the risk condition, and discovers the new risk through all quarters facing the project implementation response.
5) renews the correlation database like risk recognition check table, will favor the next similar project the implementation.
6) Introduces the third party consultation, regularly carries on the quality testing to the project, guards against the big risk.
The implementation informational, the enterprise needs to face the huge risk, sometimes even has handed over own life and death in the informational. But if does not implement the informational, the enterprise needs to travel together surmounted, then annihilation in globalization tide, this is each enterprise all is not willing to see.
All in all, ERP's best hope for demonstrating value is as a sort of battering ram for improving the way your company takes a customer order and processes it into an invoice and revenue-otherwise known as the order fulfillment process. That is why ERP is often referred to as back-office software. It doesn't handle the up-front selling process (although most ERP vendors have recently developed CRM software to do this); rather, ERP takes a customer order and provides a software road map for automating the different steps along the path to fulfilling it. When a customer service representative enters a customer order into an ERP system, he has all the information necessary to complete the order (the customer's credit rating and order history from the finance module, the company's inventory levels from the warehouse module and the shipping dock's trucking schedule from the logistics module, for example). People in these different departments all see the same information and can update it. When one department finishes with the order it is automatically routed via the ERP system to the next department. To find out where the order is at any point, you need only log in to the ERP system and track it down. With luck, the order process moves like a bolt of lightning through the organization, and customers get their orders faster and with fewer errors than before. ERP can apply that same magic to the other major business processes, such as employee benefits or financial reporting. That, at least, is the dream of ERP. The reality is much harsher. Let's go back to those inboxes for a minute. That process may not have been efficient, but it was simple. Finance
did its job, the warehouse did its job, and if anything went wrong outside of the department's walls, it was somebody else's problem. Not anymore. With ERP, the customer service representatives are no longer just typists entering someone's name into a computer and hitting the return key. The ERP screen makes them businesspeople. It flickers with the customer's credit rating from the finance department and the product inventory levels from the warehouse. Will the customer pay on time? Will we be able to ship the order on time? These are decisions that customer service representatives have never had to make before, and the answers affect the customer and every other department in the company. But it's not just the customer service representatives who have to wake up. People in the warehouse who used to keep inventory in their heads or on scraps of paper now need to put that information online. If they don't, customer service reps will see low inventory levels on their screens and tell customers that their requested item is not in stock. Accountability, responsibility and communication have never been tested like this before. People don't like to change, and ERP asks them to change how they do their jobs. That is why the value of ERP is so hard to pin down. The software is less important than the changes companies make in the ways they do business. If you use ERP to improve the ways your people take orders, manufacture goods, ship them and bill for them, you will see value from the software. If you simply install the software without changing the ways people do their jobs, you may not see any value at all-indeed, the new software could slow you down by simply replacing the old software that everyone knew with new software that no one does.
If our enterprise, the manufacturer can more enlightened, discard that so-called point of honor, shares them facing the risk time experience and the populace, the trust informational failure rate must be much less than absolutely the present.
Harvard Business Press July-August 2010
ERP项目实施成功因素和风险管理 参考国外的一些文献资料，一个成功的ERP项目，往往要花费数年时间，数千万美元得以完成。再回头看国内，随着ERP怀疑论的抬头，价格战的兴起，ERP作为一种软件供应商的产品，却有走下神坛趋势。就连ERP界的首领SAP 也推出了Business One产品，价格低于十万。不过，即便ERP软件能做到免费，或如IBM推崇的按需收费的境界，从整个企业实施的角度，考虑到人员、培训、维护、业务重组、二次开发、三次、n次开发，其费用应该也在数百万乃至千万人民币的规模。这对于国内企业而言，已是不小的数目了。 但是，还是有不少企业怀着美丽的梦想，踏上ERP实施的艰辛之旅。其中又有不少项目以失败告终。而对于那些最后的幸存者，是否就可以还戟入仓，饮酒高歌呢？ 事实上，企业在成功实施ERP项目后，将面对较实施前更大的风险。在未来的五到十年中，是否有一个扎实的ERP风险管理机制将决定了企业是否能在最初的ERP投资中真正获益。 1998年Thomas H.Davenport在哈佛商务评论发表了名为《将企业放入企业系统》的文章(Putting the entERPrise into the entERPrise system)。该文系统地提出了企业系统，或称ERP系统给企业运作带来积极及消极的引响。同时也直接提出了未来企业必须面对的一个风险：将整个企业放入企业系统中的风险。 按照美国项目管理协会对风险的定义，“风险”是指对项目有利或不利的不确定因素。 项目是“为完成某一独特的产品或服务所做的一次性努力”，项目的“独特性”决定了项目不可能是以与以前完全相同的方式、由与以前完全相同的人来完成的，同时，项目所要创造的产品或服务，以及项目可能涉及的范围、时间及成本都不可能在项目开始时完全确定，因此，在项目进行过程中也相应会出现大量的不确定性，即项目风险。本文以下所提到的“风险”是指对项目“不利”的不确定因素。 对项目不利的风险存在于任何项目中，并往往会给项目的推进和项目的成功带来负面影响。风险一旦发生，它的影响是多方面的，如导致项目产品/服务的功能无法满足客户的需要、项目费用超出预算、项目计划拖延或被迫取消等，其最终体现为客户满意度的降低。因此，识别风险、评估风险并采取措施应对风险即风险管理对项目管理具有十分重要的意义。 风险管理的具体内容 项目风险管理主要分为以下几个步骤：风险识别、定性/定量风险分析、风险应对计划编制及风险监控。 1.风险识别 风险识别，是指识别并记录可能对项目造成不利影响的因素。由于项目处于不断发展变化的过程中，因此风险识别也贯穿于整个项目实施的全过程,而不仅仅是项目的开始阶段。风险识别不是一次性的工作，而需要更多系统的、横向的思维。几乎所有关于项目的计划与信息都可能作为风险识别的依据，如项目进度及成本计划、工作分解结构、项目组织结构、项目范围、类似项目的历史信息等。 需要注意的是，并非所有的风险都可以通过风险识别来进行管理。风险识别只能发现已知风险（如：已知项目组织中某一成员能力不能完全满足要求）或已知未知风险（known-unknown,即“事件名称已知”，如“客户方人员参与力度不足”）；而某些风险，由于项目的独特性，不可能在其发生前预知
文献出处：Bedard J C, Hoitash R, et al. The development of the enterprise risk management theory [J]. Contemporary Accounting Research, 2014, 30(4): 64-95. （声明：本译文归百度文库所有，完整译文请到百度文库。） 原文 The development of the enterprise risk management theory Bedard J C, Hoitash R Abstract Enterprise risk management as an important field of risk management disciplines, in more than 50 years of development process of the implementation of dispersing from multiple areas of research to the integration of comprehensive risk management framework evolution, the theory of risk management and internal audit and control theory are two major theoretical sources of risk management theory has experienced from the traditional risk management, financial volatility to the development of the enterprise risk management, risk management and internal audit and control theory went through the internal accounting control and internal control integrated framework to the evolution of enterprise risk management, the development of the theory of the above two points to the direction of the enterprise risk management, finally realizes the integration development, enterprise risk management theory to become an important part of enterprise management is indispensable. Keywords: enterprise risk management, internal audit the internal control 1 The first theory source, evolution of the theory of risk management "Risk management" as a kind of operation and management idea, has a long history: thousands of years ago in the west have "don't put all eggs in one basket" the proverb, the ancient Chinese famous "product valley hunger" allusions and "yicang ("
本科毕业论文（设计） 外文翻译 Financial Risk Management Although financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneously, which means that change, and subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly. The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. Counterparties can rapidly become problematic. As a result, it is important to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of risk management. What Is Risk? Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as a result of exposure. Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly or indirectly. When an organization has financial market exposure, there is a possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit. Financial market exposure may provide strategic or competitive benefits. Risk is the likelihood of losses resulting from events such as changes in market prices. Events with a low probability of occurring, but that may result in a high loss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated. Put another way, risk is the probable variability of returns. Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate risk, understanding it is an important step in determining how to manage it.
《关于项目风险识别方法的文献综述》 一般而言，项目风险管理包含风险管理规划，风险识别，风险定量定性分析，风险应对和风险监控。做好风险管理的首要条件就是要能够很好的做好风险识别，只有识别出了项目本身存在的所有重要风险，才能确保后续的风险定量定性分析，风险应对和风险监控能够顺利实施。如果某些重要的风险没有被识别出来，发生了遗漏，那后果可能会非常严重。对于项目本身，项目参与者，项目投资人都将会遭受重大损失。所以风险识别是风险管理中的基础，没有好的风险识别就不会有好的风险管理，同时一个好的风险识别方法还可以兼顾到风险管理后续的风险定量定性分析过程，即在风险识别阶段就包含了识别和评估两项工作，从而大大节省项目资源，提高项目成功的几率。 笔者认为好的风险识别方法可以大大提升风险管理的实施质量，俗话说得好“良好的开始时成功的一半”，作为风险管理的前期过程，风险识别是风险管理的基础，通过对于现有的风险识别方法的研究和比较，可以寻找出一种对于全面识别项目风险和机遇的方法，为提升项目成功的几率创造良好的条件。 风险识别中最常用的方法有德尔菲法，头脑风暴法，风险核对表，SWOT 分析法，项目工作分解结构，敏感性分析和故障树分析等。风险的范围、种类和严重程度经常容易被主观夸大或缩小，使项目的风险评估分析和处置发生差错，造成不必要的损失。项目风险识别的方法有很多，任何有助于发现风险信息的方法都可以作为、管路敷设技术通过管线敷设技术，不仅可以解决吊顶层配置不规范问题，而且可保障各类管路习题到位。在管路敷设过程中，要加强看护关于管路高中资料试卷连接管口处理高中资料试卷弯扁度固定盒位置保护层防腐跨接地线弯曲半径标高等，要求技术交底。管线敷设技术中包含线槽、管架等多项方式，为解决高中语文电气课件中管壁薄、接口不严等问题，合理利用管线敷设技术。线缆敷设原则：在分线盒处，当不同电压回路交叉时，应采用金属隔板进行隔开处理；同一线槽内，强电回路须同时切断习题电源，线缆敷设完毕，要进行检查和检测处理。、电气课件中调试对全部高中资料试卷电气设备，在安装过程中以及安装结束后进行高中资料试卷调整试验；通电检查所有设备高中资料试卷相互作用与相互关系，根据生产工艺高中资料试卷要求，对电气设备进行空载与带负荷下高中资料试卷调控试验；对设备进行调整使其在正常工况下与过度工作下都可以正常工作；对于继电保护进行整核对定值，审核与校对图纸，编写复杂设备与装置高中资料试卷调试方案，编写重要设备高中资料试卷试验方案以及系统启动方案；对整套启动过程中高中资料试卷电气设备进行调试工作并且进行过关运行高中资料试卷技术指导。对于调试过程中高中资料试卷技术问题，作为调试人员，需要在事前掌握图纸资料、设备制造厂家出具高中资料试卷试验报告与相关技术资料，并且了解现场设备高中资料试卷布置情况与有关高中资料试卷电气系统接线等情况，然后根据规范与规程规定，制定设备调试高中资料试卷方案。、电气设备调试高中资料试卷技术电力保护装置调试技术，电力保护高中资料试卷配置技术是指机组在进行继电保护高中资料试卷总体配置时，需要在最大限度内来确保机组高中资料试卷安全，并且尽可能地缩小故障高中资料试卷破坏范围，或者对某些异常高中资料试卷工况进行自动处理，尤其要避免错误高中资料试卷保护装置动作，并且拒绝动作，来避免不必要高中资料试卷突然停机。因此，电力高中资料试卷保护装置调试技术，要求电力保护装置做到准确灵活。对于差动保护装置高中资料试卷调试技术是指发电机一变压器组在发生内部故障时，需要进行外部电源高中资料试卷切除从而采用高中资料试卷主要保护装置。
工程项目风险及其管理研究 文献综述 风险管理已在工程项目管理方面得到了一定范围的运用。工程项目风险管理是风险管理和项目管理相结合的一门学科。一般工程项目风险起源入手，探讨降低工程项目风险、为工程项目提供安全保障、促使工程项目顺利进行的方法，其目的是寻找对工程项目风险进行有效管理的途径。而工程项目风险管理对工程的顺利进行具有很大的意义，对此国内外众多学者都进行了相关的研究。国外的研究有：1984年，美国项目管理学会PMI制定的PMBOK将项目风险管理作为一个重要组成部分，并与2000年对其进行了修正，足以可见PMI对项目风险的重视。另外 C.B.Chapman教授在《Risk Analysis for Large Projects：Models，Methods and Cases》一书中提出了“风险工程”的概念，改框架的构建弥补了单一过程的风险分析技术的不足。除此之外，国外的众多学者也从工程项目风险管理的各方面进行了详细的研究。而在此基础上，我国的学者对工程项目风险管理也进行了大量的研究，其研究现状如下：王蔚初（2010）中《现代工程项目风险分析和管理》中主要对工程项目风险的全面风险管理进行了综述，着手于项目风险的预测与识别，项目风险的评估与分析，项目风险的应对策略以及项目风险的监控和防范，阐述了有关项目风险管理的各个方面。 张根合，李渊（2010）在《工程项目风险管理初探》中指出，工程项目的启动需要经过立项、可行性研究、设计、项目计划等步骤，所有这些工作都需要面对一些变化。因此，如何识别、分析、应对工程项目风险成为需要工程项目参与各方妥善解决的问题。 张晓晨（2010）在《项目风险管理研究浅析》中指出，风险管理一直是项目管理中的重点和难点问题。所以他结合自己多年来从事项目管理的经验，对项目风险概念、研究现状、及项目风险管理系统模型进行了深入的研究，对项目管理过程中的风险问题做了进一步的阐述，希望能对广大项目管理人员起到抛砖引玉的作用。
工程项目风险管理论文项目风险管理论文 基于伙伴关系的工程项目风险管理 摘要：当前，中国现代化建设中各类风险事件时有发生，提升项目风险管理水平已成为中国工程建设行业面临的重要课题，并且需要项目参与各合作管理共同风险。鉴于伙伴关系模式能最大程度地整合资源，有助于相关组织的革新、学习和提高效率，创建了基于伙伴关系模式的项目风险管理模型。该模型系统地描述了伙伴关系应如何组织风险管理体系以及项目风险管理和评价与激励之间的紧密结合，使项目参与各组织通过资源最优化配置提升项目风险管理水平。 关键词：伙伴关系；工程项目；风险管理 引言 风险在项目中是普遍存在的，项目管理在一定程度上可以说就是风险管理。由于内、外部环境的快速变化，项目以及项目群所涉及的不确定因素日益增多，面临的风险种类也越来越多，导致的损失规模更是越来越大，这些都促使科研人员和实际管理人员从理论上和实践上重视工程项目的风险管理。工程项目实施过程中的风险与所有参与者（业主、承包商、设计、监理、供应商等）有关，涉及众多组织，如何使这些组织间资源最优化配置是合作管理风险机制所要解决的基本问题。国资委也指出，具有上下游产业关系或具有优势互补关系的企业间，要加强产品供应、技术开发、市场开拓等方面的合作，形
成战略联盟，实现资源、信息共享。鉴于伙伴关系模式能最大程度地整合建设业资源，有助于相关组织的革新、学习和提高效率[1]，有必要建立基于伙伴关系的项目风险管理机制，充分整合项目开发相关各方的资源，以有效提升中国建设业风险管理水平。 一、伙伴关系管理模式 1.伙伴关系的概念。伙伴关系应用于项目实施源自美国，目前主要应用于北美、欧洲、澳洲等地，已有十余年历史。伙伴关系模式是：“两个或多个组织间的一种长期合作关系，旨在为实现特定目标尽可能有效利用所有参与方的资源；这要求参与方改变传统关系，打破组织间壁垒，发展共同文化；参与方之间的合作关系应基于信任，致力于共同目标和理解尊重各自的意愿”[2]。从建筑业市场的自身特点来看，引入伙伴关系模式也有其必要性。建筑业产品的品质是由不同的组织决定的，这些组织包括业主、承包商、设计、监理、供应商和运行单位等。如果各组织间缺乏合作，将导致决定项目品质的各个组织的资源难以充分整合。伙伴关系管理模式则可以通过不同层面的措施实现组织间资源的最优化配置，从而提高项目的实施结果，最终为所有组织带来利益。相对于传统方式，伙伴关系方式可以降低项目造价1.76%，缩短工期约8.99%；在伙伴关系的基础上，美国、英国和澳洲的一些工程加入了激励机制，即风险共担、利益共享，这些项目实施的结果显示，相对于目标，实际成本降低了8.1%，工期缩短6.94%[3]。
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------- 关于项目风险管理的文献综述 一、引言 项目风险管理是为了最好地达到项目的目标，识别、分配、应对项目生命周期内风险的科学与艺术，是一种综合性的管理活动，其理论和实践涉及到自然科学、社会科学、工程技术、系统科学、管理科学等多种学科。项目风险管理的目标可以被认为是使潜在机会或回报最大化、使潜在风险最小化。 二、风险管理理论国内外研究 1.风险管理理论的发展 风险管理作为系统科学产生于本世纪初的西方工业化国家。比较系统的风险管理理论源于美国。1931年美国管理协会首先倡导风险管理，其后以学术会议及研究班等多种形式集中探讨和研究风险管理问题，但在这段时间内，风险管理的内容和范围都是十分狭窄的。1955至1964年，诞生了现代学术性和职业化的风险管理，此后，对风险管理的研究逐步趋向系统化、专业化、风险管理己逐渐成为一门独立的学科。 20世纪70年代中期风险管理方面的课程及论著数量大增，全美大多数大学工商管理学院普遍开设风险管理课程，RIMS开始建立欧洲及亚洲风险管理团体之间的联系，这导致全球性的风险管理专业联合体的形成，风险管理开始进入全球化阶段。在西方发达国家，各企业中都相继建立了风险管理机构，专门负责风险的分析和处理方面的工作。美国还成立了全美范围的风险研究所和RIMS等专门研究工商企业风险管理的学术团体。1983年在RIMS 年会上，各国专家学者经过广泛深入的讨论，通过了“危险性风险管理101准则”，作为各国风险管理的一般原则。1986年10月在新加坡召开的风险管理国际学术讨论会表明:风险管理已经走向全球，成为全球范围的国际性运动。 ---------------------------------------------------------精品文档---------------------------------------------------------
中英文对照外文翻译文献 (文档含英文原文和中文翻译) 原文： Project Risk Analysis Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 About this compendium This course compendium is to be used in the course “Risikostyring is projector”. The focus will be on the following topics: ? R isk identification ? Risk structuring ? Risk modeling in the light of a time schedule and a cost model
? Risk follows up We will also discuss elements related to decision analysis where risk is involved, and use of life cycle cost and life cycle profit models. The course compendium comprises a large number of exercises, and it is recommended to do most of the exercises in order to get a good understanding of the topics and methods described. A separate MS Excel program, pRisk.xls has been developed in order to assist numerical calculations and to conduct Monte Carlo simulation. 1.2 Definitions Aleatory uncertainty Variation of quantities in a population. We sometimes use the word variability rather than aleatory uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty Lack of knowledge about the “world”, and observable quantities in particular. Dependency The relation between the sequences of the activities in a project. Observable quantity A quantity expressing a state of the “world”, i.e. a quantity of the p hysical reality or nature, that is unknown at the time of the analysis but will, if the system being analyzed is actually implemented, take some value in the future, and possibly become known. Parameter We use the term parameter in two ways in this report. The main use of a parameter is that it is a quantity that is a part of the risk analysis models, and for which we assign numerical values. The more academic definition of a parameter used in a probability
天津大学 （高等教育自学考试） 本科生毕业设计（论文）任务书 天津大学继续教育学院办学点项目管理专业（可不填）班设计（论文）题目：建设工程项目管理中的风险管理研究 完成期限： 自2011年7 月 3 日至2011 年9月30 日止 指导教师高喜峰 办学点负责人陆培毅 批准日期2011.7.3 学生张三 接受任务日期2011.7.3 注：1. 本任务书一式两份，一份院或系留存，一份发给学生，任务完成后附在说明书内。 2.“检查人签名”一栏和“指导教师批准日期”由教师用笔填写，其余各项均要求打印。
一、设计（论文）原始依据（资料） 在当今信息社会和知识经济之中，人们创造财富和社会福利的途径与方式已经由过去重复进行的生产活动为主，逐步转向了以项目开发和项目实施活动为主的模式。而项目的开发与实施过程是一个复杂的、创新的、一次性的并涉及到许多关系与变数的过程，是一个存在着很大不确定性的过程，从而使得这个过程中会出现各种各样的风险。如果不能有效地管理、控制这些风险，就会给项目带来各种不同程度的损失。可以说，项目管理中最重要的任务就是对不确定性和风险性事件和问题的处理。 就建设工程项目来说，与其它行业相比，建设工程项目由于投资大，工期长，在建设过程中不可预见的因素较多。工程建设投资方会不可避免的面临着各种风险，从最初的项目投资评价到项目建成并投入使用，通常是一个复杂的过程，其中包括耗时较长的设计和建造过程。这一过程涉及到大量不同专业人员的参与，并涉及对一系列既相互独立又相互联系的活动的协调。此外，这一复杂过程还受到大量外界及不可控制因素的影响。如果不加防范，就会影响工程建设的顺利进行。建设企业在进行工程项目风险管理时采取何种形式的组织结构，采取何种风险管理模式，在风险管理的过程中如何识别风险、分析风险、应对风险、控制风险和监督风险才能使投资企业更好的管理风险、驾驭风险，对于建设工程项目风险管理的研究显得尤为重要。 当前，我国风险管理（包括建设工程项目风险管理）研究还处于初级阶段。这也导致对于建设工程项目的风险分析与管理还很不完善。这也说明建设工程项目风险管理研究需要进一步加强。 研究目的在于进一步强化我国建设工程项目风险管理，进而推动我国建设工程的更快发展。同时也为其他相关企业的风险管理通过借鉴。
项目风险管理文献综述 项目的实现过程是一个存在着很多不确定性的过程，因为这一过程是一个复杂的、一次性的、创新性的并且涉及许多关系与变数的过程。 项目风险管理是为了最好地达到项目的目标，识别、分配、应对项目生命周期内风险的科学与艺术，是一种综合性的管理活动，其理论和实践涉及到自然科学、社会科学、工程技术、系统科学、管理科学等多种学科。项目风险管理的目标可以被认为是使潜在机会或回报最大化、使潜在风险最小化。 针对当前我国工程建设中，对风险认识和估计不足，在建设过程中又没有有效的风险防范措施等情况。本文着重从风险的认识、特点、产生原因进行分析，介绍了它的基本概念及其常用的几种风险识别、风险评价和风险应对和监控的方法，提出控制风险的对策措施。 项目风险管理 项目风险是指由于项目所处的环境和条件本身的不确定性，和项目业主、客户、项目组织或项目的某个当事人主观上不能准确预见或控制因数影响，使项目的最终结果与当事人的期望产生悖离，并存在给当事人带来损失的可能性。 工程项目风险的产生 1.政策风险 政策风险是项目实施过程中，由于国家、行业的主管部门对所实施的项目相关的政策、法律法规、规划或标准的更新、更改给项目所带来的风险。对这类风险的管理和控制，首先要保证所实施的项目符合国家的产业政策，还应密切注意与项目相关的法律法规及标准可能发生的变化。如调整国民经济计划、产业政策，强行下令已开工的项目下马，或对一些企业实行关停并转等，许多工程业主不得不因此而改变其投资计划，因此，不可避免要遭受重大损失。再者由于政府角色与地位的特殊性，一旦政府换届就有可能导致工程项目发生变更，由此造成工程项目独特的“政治风险”。 2.市场风险 由于产品和原材料的市场价格及供需变化，产品的市场竞争能力等因素给项目造成的风险。该风险是竞争性项目最常遇到的风险，对项目的收益影响至关重要。避免或减少该风险必须采取综合性措施。一是前期做好市场调研，把握项目的产品市场和原材料市场的变化趋势;在选择时，注重项目产品的生命周期，避开进入衰退期的项目，选择具有市场生命力和发展前景的项目，避免市场风险。二是结合企业发展战略，做好产品市场定位，运用营销策略来降低或化解不利因素的影响，从而减少、降低市场风险。 3.管理风险 指项目管理过程中，由于管理层决策失误、战略调整等管理方面的因素造成的风险，是一种人为的风险，具有主观性、可控性，与项目的组织、管理实施有直接联系。 4.财务风险 项目在实施过程中由于资金融通、资金周转、利率汇率变化使项目可能发生超投资或资金短
外文文献翻译 Commercial Bank Risk Management : An Analysis of the Process
外文文献： Commercial Bank Risk Management: An Analysis of the Process Abstract Throughout the past year, on-site visits to financial service firms were conducted to review and evaluate their financial risk management systems. The commercial banking analysis covered a number of North American super-regionals and quasi±money-center institutions as well as several firms outside the U.S. The information obtained covered both the philosophy and practice of financial risk management. This article outlines the results of this investigation. It reports the state of risk management techniques in the industry. It reports the standard of practice and evaluates how and why it is conducted in the particular way chosen. In addition, critiques are offered where appropriate. We discuss the problems which the industry finds most difficult to address, shortcomings of the current methodology used to analyze risk, and the elements that are missing in the current procedures of risk management. 1. Introduction The past decade has seen dramatic losses in the banking industry. Firms that had been performing well suddenly announced large losses due to credit exposures that turned sour, interest rate positions taken, or derivative exposures that may or may not have been assumed to hedge balance sheet risk. In response to this, commercial banks have almost universally embarked upon an upgrading of their risk management and control systems. Coincidental to this activity, and in part because of our recognition of the industry's vulnerability to financial risk, the Wharton Financial Institutions Center, with the support of the Sloan Foundation, has been involved in an analysis of financial risk management processes in the financial sector. Through the past academic year, on-site visits were conducted to review and evaluate the risk management systems and the process of risk evaluation that is in place. In the banking sector, system evaluation was conducted covering many of North America's
关于建设项目风险管理的相关文献综述 东南大学土木工程学院，郁锋君（05107327） 摘要：现代工程项目往往具有规模大、技术新颖、结构复杂、持续时间长、参与单位多等特点，这些特点导致了建设工程项目风险的多样性和普遍性。在这种情况下，建设项目风险管理就显的十分重要，如何分析风险、提出对策、提出管理制度，本文将总结性地进行叙述。 关键字：风险识别风险评价风险控制 正文： 第一部分文献摘要 ①郑文选在《谈工程项目风险管理》里指出：“风险管理属于一种高层次的综合性管理工作，它是分析和处理由不确定性产生的各种问题的一整套方法，包括风险的辩识、风险的估计及风险的控制。”“风险分析的大部分内容是关于技术风险、设备质量风险和可靠性工程问题，而关于风险评价的量度及定量分析的技术方法很少，因此，风险管理仍是一门不完善和不成熟的学科。” ②王玉娥、黄泽鹏在《工程项目管理的风险分析与防范》中指出：“风险有以下两种定义：①风险就是与出现损失有关的不确定性；②风险就是在给定的情况下和特定时间内，可能发生的结果之间的差异。” ③杨存义在《建设工程风险管理现状及防范措施》中指出“我国的工程风险管理水平低下，相关法规措施相对滞后，其主要表现为：一是建设各方对建立工程风险意识淡薄。工程担保和工程保险在建筑企业和金融业中缺乏其重要性和必要性的认识。商业银行对政策性贷款投资的工程项目没有必须进行投保的要求，投资主体虽然从所有制结构上发生了变化，但提高工程风险意识依然不强，未能从工程风险管理人手，降低和转移风险条件。二是担保市场尚未建立。银行虽然开展了一些保函业务，但在建筑业中的各类保险业务开展较欠缺，险种、保单形式单一，缺乏建筑业特点，不能适应工程担保需要，难以提供工程风险管理的必备条件。三是缺乏中介代理机构。” ④赵根山在《浅议我国建筑工程风险管理制度体系的建立、推行和完善》中指出：“风险是指对未来收益和损失的不确定性。它是客观存在的，是不以人们意志为转移的。大的风险事件一旦发生就会给国家、地方和企业带来巨大损失。工程建设属于复杂的系统工程，由于其自身具有的特征决定了它比一般项目具有更大的风险性。随着市场经济的发展，建立适合我国国情的工程风险管理制度体系，树立诚信守法的社会风气，对维护和推进建筑业和相关产业可持续、健康发展，保护经营者的合法权益等具有十分重大的意义。” ⑤J.H.M.T ah and V.Carr在《KNOWLEDGE-BASED APPROACH TO CONSTRUCTION PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT》中指出：“Many
工程项目风险管理文献 一、引言 工程项目风险管理被认为是项目管理的三大支柱之一，在我国的许多项目中，由于没有风险意识而造成的损失是巨大的，同样，风险和盈利是同时存在的，通常风险大的工程项目才有较高的盈利，降低风险的目的就是减少不必要的成本开支，以实现目标利润，创造良好的经济效益。这样，风险管理就成为项目管理的重点之一，风险管理从很大程度上关系着一个工程投资项目的盈利收入，是一门需要我们大力研究的一门管理应用学科，对风险管理有着深刻的认识也显得尤为重要。 1、《我国工程项目风险管理研究综述》，王月明、卿本姚，四川建筑科学研究2007 （02） 风险管理的概念可以从经济学、保险学、风险管理学等不同的角度给出不同的定义。其中学术界较为普遍接受的有以下定义： （1）风险就是与出现损失有关的不确定性； （2）风险就是在给定的情况下和特定的时间内，可能发生的结果之间的差异。目前，工程风险管理专家对工程项目的风险定义为：工程项目风险是指所有影响工程项目目标实现的不确定因素的集合。当定量的评价建设工程风险时，会出现风险与概率、潜在的损失的函数关系可以表示为：（p，q） 其中R表示风险量；p表示风险发生的概率，q表示潜在的损失。在风险管理理论和方法中，多数情况是以离散情况来定量表示风险发生的概率和损及其失，因而，风险量R相应的表示为 p1 q1 p2 q2 p3 q3 ........... p n q n （1,2,3 表示风险事件的数量） 2、《工程项目管理》，陆惠民、苏振民、王延树风险是客观存在的，不以人的意志为转移， 因此，风险管理比不可少。 所谓风险管理（），就是人们对潜在的意外损失进行辨认、评估，并根据具体情况采取相应的措施进行处理，即在主观上尽可能做到有备无患，或在客观上无法避免时亦能寻求切实可行的补救措施，从而减少意外损失或化解风险为我所用。 工程项目风险管理师指参与工程项目建设的各方，包括发包方、承包方和勘察、设计、监理咨询单位等在工程项目的筹划、勘察设计、工程施工以及竣工后投入使用各阶段采取的辨认、评估、处理工程项目风险的措施和方法。 3、《试述工程项目风险管理》，王力颖，中国外资2010 （02）工程项目建设过程是一个周期长、投资多、技术要求高、系统复杂的生产消费过程，与此相对应．工程项目风险管理也是一个复杂的、庞大的、动态的系统工程．是一个符合一般管理逻辑的连续过程。其主要包括风险识别、风险评估、风险控制三方面内容。1、风险分析与识别的方法： （1）德尔菲法德尔菲法本质上是一幢反馈匿名函询法。其作法是，在对所要预测的问题争得专家的意见之后，进行整理、归纳、统计，在匿名反馈给各专家，再次征求意见，再集中，再反馈，直到得到稳定的意见。它有区别于其他专家预测方法的是匿名性，多次反馈，小组统计回答。 (2)技术分析法 是一种系统分析方法。用来确定项目内部的优势()、劣势()和项目外部的机会(啪、威胁()，从而将工程项目与内部资源、外部环境有机结合。 此外，风险分析与识别还有核对表法、头脑风暴法、敏感性分析法、事故树分析法等等。
文献出处：Beasley M S, Clune R, Hermanson D R. Enterprise risk management in Insurance [J]. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, 2014, 24(6): 521-531. （2014年最新翻译，英语专八，保证质量。） 作者：Beasley M S, Clune R, Hermanson D R 文献名：Enterprise risk management in Insurance 期刊名：Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 年份：2014年，24卷，第6期，页码：521-531 译文字数：5500字 原文 Enterprise Risk Management in Insurance Beasley, Clune, Hermanson Trust is a key determinants of any financial transaction. Exchanges in insurance markets are a particular type of financial transaction where a current payment – the premium –is exchanges for a promise of a future, contingent payment –the indemnity due when the casualty occurs. We argue that trust is key in fostering these type of exchanges. Trust enters two ways: because it affects the willingness of the company to supply insurance when the insured can cheat by claiming indemnities that are not due. Because it discourages people from purchasing insurance if they do not trust the company promise of readily paying the indemnity when due. We prove theoretically and empirically the relevance of trust in insurance exchanges and discuss policies to foster it. Enterprise Risk Management (hereinafter referred as “ERM”) interests a wide range of professions (e.g., actuaries, corporate financial managers, underwriters, accountants,and internal auditors), however, current ERM solutions often do not cover all risks because they are motivated by the core professional ethics and principles of these professions who design and administer them. In a typical insurance company all such professions work as a group to achieve the overriding corporate objectives.Risk can be defined as factors which prevent an organization in achieving its objectives and risks affect organizations holistically. The management of risk in isolation often misses its big picture. It is argued here that a holistic management of risk is logical and is the ultimate destination of all general management activities.Moreover, risk