Claryfing-Busines-Model Osterwalder

The path-to-profitability of Internet IPO firms ☆Bharat A.Jain a,1,Narayanan Jayaraman b,2,Omesh Kini c,⁎aCollege of Business and Economics,Towson University,Towson,MD 21044,United States b College of Management,Georgia Institute of Technology,Atlanta,GA 30332,United Statesc Robinson College of Business,Georgia State University,Atlanta,GA 30303,United StatesReceived 1October 2006;received in revised form 1December 2006;accepted 1February 2007AbstractExtant empirical evidence indicates that the proportion of firms going public prior to achieving profitability has been increasing over time.This phenomenon is largely driven by an increase in the proportion of technology firms going public.Since there is considerable uncertainty regarding the long-term economic viability of these firms at the time of going public,identifying factors that influence their ability to attain key post-IPO milestones such as achieving profitability represents an important area of research.We employ a theoretical framework built around agency and signaling considerations to identify factors that influence the probability and timing of post-IPO profitability of Internet IPO firms.We estimate Cox Proportional Hazards models to test whether factors identified by our theoretical framework significantly impact the probability of post-IPO profitability as a function of time.We find that the probability of post-IPO profitability increases with pre-IPO investor demand and change in ownership at the IPO of the top officers and directors.On the other hand,the probability of post-IPO profitability decreases with the venture capital participation,proportion of outsiders on the board,and pre-market valuation uncertainty.©2007Published by Elsevier Inc.Keywords:Initial public offerings;Internet firms;Path-to-profitability;Hazard models;SurvivalJournal of Business Venturing xx (2007)xxx –xxxMODEL 1AJBV-05413;No of Pages 30☆We would like to thank Kalpana Narayanan,Raghavendra Rau,Sankaran Venkataraman (Editor),Phil Phan (Associate Editor),two anonymous referees,and participants at the 2002Financial Management Association Meetings in San Antonio for helpful comments.We thank Paul Gilson and Sandy Lai for excellent research assistance.The usual disclaimer applies.⁎Corresponding author.Tel.:+14046512656;fax:+14046522630.E-mail addresses:bjain@ (B.A.Jain),narayanan.jayaraman@ (N.Jayaraman),okini@ (O.Kini).1Tel.:+14107043542;fax:+14107043454.2Tel.:+14048944389;fax:+14048946030.0883-9026/$-see front matter ©2007Published by Elsevier Inc.doi:10.1016/j.jbusvent.2007.02.004Please cite this article as:Jain,B.A.et al.The path-to-profitability of Internet IPO firms.Journal of Business2 B.A.Jain et al./Journal of Business Venturing xx(2007)xxx–xxx1.Executive summaryThere has been an increasing tendency for firms to go public on the basis of a promise of profitability rather than actual profitability.Further,this phenomenon is largely driven by the increase in the proportion of technology firms going public.The risk of post-IPO failure is particularly high for unprofitable firms as shifts in investor sentiment leading to negative market perceptions regarding their prospects or unfavorable financing environments could lead to a shutdown of external financing sources thereby imperiling firm survival. Therefore,the actual accomplishment of post-IPO profitability represents an important milestone in the company's evolution since it signals the long-term economic viability of the firm.While the extant research in entrepreneurship has focused on factors influencing the ability of entrepreneurial firms to attain important milestones prior to or at the time of going public,relatively little is known regarding the timing or ability of firms to achieve critical post-IPO milestones.In this study,we construct a theoretical framework anchored on agency and signaling theories to understand the impact of pre-IPO factors such as governance and ownership structure,management quality,institutional investor demand,and third party certification on firms'post-IPO path-to-profitability.We attempt to validate the testable implications arising from our theoretical framework using the Internet industry as our setting.Achieving post-issue profitability in a timely manner is of particular interest for Internet IPO firms since they are predominantly unprofitable at the time of going public and are typically characterized by high cash burn rates thereby raising questions regarding their long-term economic viability.Since there is a repeated tendency for high technology firms in various emerging sectors of the economy to go public in waves amid investor optimism followed by disappointing performance,insights gained from a study of factors that influence the path-to-profitability of Internet IPO firms will help increase our understanding of the development path and long-term economic viability of entrepreneurial firms in emerging, high technology industries.Using a sample of160Internet IPO firms that went public during the period1996–2000, we estimate Cox Proportional Hazards(CPH)models to analyze the economic significance of factors that influence the post-IPO path-to-profitability.Consistent with agency explanations,we find that a higher proportion of inside directors on the board and the change in pre-to-post-IPO ownership of top management are both significantly positively related to the probability of attaining post-IPO profitability.These results support arguments in the governance literature pointing to the beneficial impact of the presence of more insiders on the boards of high technology companies as well as the signaling value of the ownership stake of top management in the post-IPO firm.Additionally,we find evidence to indicate that higher institutional investor demand serves as an effective signal of the ability of Internet firms to attain post-IPO profitability,while greater pre-IPO valuation uncertainty reflects higher divergence of opinion about the future prospects of the IPO firm, and serves as a negative signal of the ability to achieve post-IPO profitability.Finally,we find that while underwriter prestige is unrelated to the probability of post-IPO profitability, VC participation decreases the probability of post-IPO profitability.Our results regarding the impact of VC participation on the probability of post-IPO profitability support arguments in the literature that VCs during the Internet boom period had incentives to grandstand by Please cite this article as:Jain,B.A.et al.The path-to-profitability of Internet IPO firms.Journal of Businesstaking their companies public prematurely and that their monitoring role in the post-IPO period was rather limited since they cashed out earlier due to shorter lock-up periods.Our study makes several contributions.First,we construct a theoretical framework based on agency and signaling theories to identify factors that may influence the path-to-profitability of IPO firms.Second,we provide empirical evidence on the economic viability (path-to-profitability and firm survival)of newly public Internet firms.Third,our study adds to the theoretical and empirical literature that has focused on factors influencing the ability of entrepreneurial firms to achieve critical milestones during the transition from private to public ownership.While previous studies have focused on milestones during the private phase of firm development such as receipt of VC funding and completion of a public offering,our study extends this literature by focusing on a post-issue milestone such as attaining profitability.2.IntroductionThe past few decades have witnessed the formation and development of several vitally important technologically oriented emerging industries such as disk drive,biotechnology,and most recently the Internet industry.Entrepreneurial firms in such knowledge intensive industries are increasingly going public earlier in their life cycle while there is still a great deal of uncertainty and information asymmetry regarding their future prospects (Janey and Folta,2006).A natural consequence of the rapid transition from founding stage firms to public corporations is an increasing tendency for firms to go public on the basis of a promise of profitability rather than actual profitability.3Although sustained profitability is no longer a requirement for firms in order to go public,actual accomplishment of post-IPO profitability represents an important milestone in the firm's evolution since it reduces uncertainty regarding the long-term economic viability of the firm.In this paper,we focus on identifying observable factors at the time of going public that have the ability to influence the likelihood and timing of attaining post-IPO profitability by Internet firms.We restrict our study to the Internet industry since it represents a natural setting to study the long-term economic viability of an emerging industry where firms tend to go public when they are predominantly unprofitable and where there is considerably uncertainty and information asymmetry regarding their future prospects.4The attainment of post-IPO profitability assumes significance since the IPO event does not provide the same level of legitimizing differentiation that it did in the past as sustained profitability is no longer a prerequisite to go public particularly in periods where the market is favorably inclined towards investments rather than demonstration of profitability (Stuart et al.,1999;Janey and Folta,2006).During the Internet boom,investors readily accepted the mantra of “growth at all costs ”and enthusiastically bid up the post-IPO offering prices to irrational levels (Lange et al.,2001).In fact,investor focus on the promise of growth rather than profitability resulted in Internet start-ups being viewed differently from typical 3For example,Ritter and Welch (2002)report that the percentage of unprofitable firms going public rose form 19%in the 1980s to 37%during 1995–1998.4Schultz and Zaman (2001)report that only 8.72%of the Internet firms that went public during January 1999to March 2000were profitable in the quarter prior to the IPO.3B.A.Jain et al./Journal of Business Venturing xx (2007)xxx –xxx Please cite this article as:Jain,B.A.et al.The path-to-profitability of Internet IPO firms.Journal of Business4 B.A.Jain et al./Journal of Business Venturing xx(2007)xxx–xxxnew ventures in that they were able to marshal substantial resources virtually independent of performance benchmarks(Mudambi and Treichel,2005).Since the Internet bubble burst in April2000,venture capital funds dried up and many firms that had successful IPOs went bankrupt or faced severe liquidity problems(Chang, 2004).Consequently,investors'attention shifted from their previously singular focus on growth prospects to the question of profitability with their new mantra being“path-to-profitability.”As such,market participants focused on not just whether the IPO firm would be able to achieve profitability but also“when”or“how soon.”IPO firms unable to credibly demonstrate a clear path-to-profitability were swiftly punished with steeply lower valuations and consequently faced significantly higher financing constraints.Since cash flow negative firms are not yet self sufficient and,therefore,dependent on external financing to continue to operate,the inability to raise additional capital results in a vicious cycle of events that can quickly lead to delisting and even bankruptcy.5Therefore,the actual attainment of post-IPO profitability represents an important milestone in the evolution of an IPO firm providing it with legitimacy and signaling its ability to remain economically viable through the ups and downs associated with changing capital market conditions.The theoretical framework supporting our analysis draws from signaling and agency theories as they relate to IPO firms.In our study,signaling theory provides the theoretical basis to evaluate the signaling impact of factors such as management quality,third party certification,institutional investor demand,and pre-IPO valuation uncertainty on the path-to-profitability.Similarly,agency theory provides the theoretical foundations to allow us to examine the impact of governance structure and change in top management ownership at the time of going public on the probability of achieving the post-IPO profitability milestone.Our empirical analysis is based on the hazard analysis methodology to identify the determinants of the probability of becoming profitable as a function of time for a sample of160Internet IPOs issued during the period1996–2000.Our study makes several contributions.First,we construct a theoretical framework based on agency and signaling theories to identify factors that may influence the path-to-profitability of IPO firms.Second,we provide empirical evidence on the economic viability of newly public firms(path-to-profitability and firm survival)in the Internet industry.Third, we add to the theoretical and empirical entrepreneurship literature that has focused on factors influencing the ability of entrepreneurial firms to achieve critical milestones during the transition from private to public ownership.While previous studies have focused on milestones during the private phase of firm development such as receipt of VC funding and successful completion of a public offering(Chang,2004;Dimov and Shepherd,2005; Beckman et al.,2007),our study extends this literature by focusing on post-IPO milestones. Finally,extant empirical evidence indicates that the phenomenon of young,early stage 5The case of E-Toys an Internet based toy retailer best illustrates this cyclical process.E-Toys was successful in developing an extensive customer base and a strong brand.However,the huge investment in technology, advertising,and promotion to sustain their activities as well as increased competition from both new entrants and old economy firms adopting the Internet to sell toys resulted in depressed profit margins and a longer than expected post-IPO time-to-profitability.Investors discouraged by the firm not reaching profitability within the expected time frame reacted negatively,leading to a steep drop in stock prices and consequently drying up of additional sources of external financing.As a result,the firm was forced to file for bankruptcy within a short period of time after its highly successful IPO.Please cite this article as:Jain,B.A.et al.The path-to-profitability of Internet IPO firms.Journal of Businessfirms belonging to relatively new industries being taken public amid a wave of investor optimism fueled by the promise of growth rather than profitability tends to repeat itself over time.6However,profitability tends to remain elusive and takes much longer than anticipated which results in investor disillusionment and consequently high failure rate among firms in such sectors.7Therefore,our study is likely to provide useful lessons to investors when applying valuations to IPO firms when this phenomenon starts to repeat itself.This articles proceeds as follows.First,using agency and signaling theories,we develop our hypotheses.Second,we describe our sample selection procedures and present descriptive statistics.Third,we describe our research methods and present our results.Finally,we discuss our results and end the article with our concluding remarks.3.Theory and hypothesesSignaling models and agency theory have been extensively applied in the financial economics,management,and strategy literatures to analyze a wide range of economic phenomena that revolve around problems associated with information asymmetry,moral hazard,and adverse selection.Signaling theory in particular has been widely applied in the IPO market as a framework to analyze mechanisms that are potentially effective in resolving the adverse selection problem that arises as a result of information asymmetry between various market participants (Baron,1982;Rock,1986;Welch,1989).In this study,signaling theory provides the framework to evaluate the impact of pre-IPO factors such as management quality,third party certification,and institutional investor demand on the path-to-profitability of Internet IPO firms.The IPO market provides a particularly fertile setting to explore the consequences of separation of ownership and control and potential remedies for the resulting agency problems since the interests of pre-IPO and post-IPO shareholders can diverge.In the context of the IPO market,agency and signaling effects are also related to the extent that insider actions such as increasing the percentage of the firm sold at the IPO,percentage of management stock holdings liquidated at the IPO,or percentage of VC holdings liquidated at the IPO can accentuate agency problems with outside investors and,as a consequence,signal poor performance (Mudambi and Treichel,2005).We,therefore,apply agency theory to evaluate the impact of board structure and the change in pre-to-post IPO ownership of top management on the path-to-profitability of Internet IPO firms.ernance structureIn the context of IPO firms,there are at least two different agency problems (Mudambi and Treichel,2005).The first problem arises as a result of opportunistic behavior of agents to 6Interestingly,just a few years after the bust,technology companies have again started going public while they are still unprofitable (Lashinsky,2006).7For instance,in the biotechnology industry where the first company went public a quarter century ago,public companies have taken in close to $100billion dollars from stock market investors but have delivered cumulative losses of more than $40billion (Hamilton,2004).Similarly,the disk drive industry in the early 1980s passed through phases similar to the Internet industry in terms of high firm founding rates,explosive growth,overoptimistic investors,IPO clusters,and high post-IPO failure rate (Lerner,1995).5B.A.Jain et al./Journal of Business Venturing xx (2007)xxx –xxx Please cite this article as:Jain,B.A.et al.The path-to-profitability of Internet IPO firms.Journal of Business6 B.A.Jain et al./Journal of Business Venturing xx(2007)xxx–xxxincrease their share of the wealth at the expense of principals.The introduction of effective monitoring and control systems can help mitigate or eliminate this type of behavior and its negative impact on post-issue performance.The extant corporate governance literature has argued that the effectiveness of monitoring and control functions depends to a large extent on the composition of the board of directors.We,therefore,examine the relationship between board composition and the likelihood and timing of post-IPO profitability.The second type of agency problem that arises in the IPO market is due to uncertainty regarding whether insiders seek to use the IPO as an exit mechanism to cash out or whether they use the IPO to raise capital to invest in positive NPV projects.The extent of insider selling their shares at the time of the IPO can provide an effective signal regarding which of the above two motivations is the likely reason for the IPO.We,therefore,examine the impact of the change in ownership of officers and directors around the IPO on the likelihood and timing of attaining post-issue profitability.3.1.1.Board compositionThe corporate governance literature has generally argued that a greater proportion of outside directors on the board increases board independence and results in better monitoring of management and thereby lowers agency costs(Fama,1980;Fama and Jensen,1983; Williamson,1984).Therefore,a greater proportion of outside directors on the board of Internet IPO firms is likely to lead to a more effective monitoring and control environment, thus ensuring that managers pursue shareholder value maximizing strategies.In addition, due to their short operating history,management of Internet IPO firms are unlikely to have developed the necessary links with customers,suppliers,bankers,and other important stakeholders of the firm.Outside directors can be instrumental in facilitating the establishment of such links,thereby allowing these firms to better compete in the product market as well as capital market.On the basis of the above discussion,we would expect Internet IPO firms with more independent boards to be on a faster path-to-profitability. Hypothesis1:The proportion of outsiders on the board of Internet IPO firms is positively related to the probability of profitability and negatively related to time-to-profitability during the post-IPO period.The extant empirical evidence on the positive relation between board composition and performance,however,has been mixed,both for IPO firms as well as more seasoned corporations(Dalton et al.,1998;Baker and Gompers,2003).The ambiguous results can be partly attributed to the tradeoff between the benefits from the presence of outside directors such as more effective monitoring and control,greater objectivity,and assistance in resource acquisitions versus the benefits provided by inside directors such as detailed knowledge of the firm's operations,customer requirements,and technology that in turn can help the strategic planning process.Viewed through the innovation and technology prism, high technology Internet IPO firms may actually benefit more from in-depth technological knowledge,expertise,commitment,and innovative thinking that insiders bring to the board,rather than from the monitoring and control benefits provided by outside directors.In support of this argument,Zahra(1996)points out that boards comprised of a higher proportion of insiders may be more innovative and better positioned to serve management Please cite this article as:Jain,B.A.et al.The path-to-profitability of Internet IPO firms.Journal of Businessas knowledgeable sounding boards in the formulation of strategy.Further,since high technology Internet firms are unlikely to generate substantial free cash flows in the period immediately after the IPO,the potential for wasteful expenditure is lower,and therefore,the benefits of monitoring and control provided by outsiders is less likely to be substantive.If there is a greater need for creative thinking and decision-making in high technology knowledge-based industries that only insiders are uniquely qualified to provide,we expect a negative relation between the proportion of outsiders on the board and the probability of profitability and a positive relation with time-to-profitability.Hypothesis 1A:The proportion of outsiders on the board of Internet firms is negatively related to the probability of profitability and positively related to time-to-profitability during the post-IPO period.3.1.2.Ownership of officers and directorsCorporate governance studies have also focused extensively on corporate ownership and its impact on performance,both in isolation and in conjunction with board composition.Both agency and signaling theories provide similar predictions regarding the relationship between the extent of insider ownership and post-issue performance.Agency theory suggests that high insider ownership reduces agency conflicts and enhances organizational performance,while signaling theory argues that higher insider ownership is a credible signal of insider's confidence regarding the future prospects of the firm.The change in the ownership of the top managers and directors around the offering can be viewed as an important signal of the issuing firm's future prospects (Leland and Pyle,1977).In the context of the IPO market,a large post-IPO decline in top management ownership can be interpreted as a signal of their lack of confidence in the ability of the firm to generate sufficient cash flows to reach the profitability milestone.Additionally,any decline in the ownership stakes of owners/managers is likely to adversely affect post-IPO performance due to higher agency costs (Jensen and Meckling,1976).While the extent of the change in ownership of insiders around the IPO is an informative signal for all types of IPO firms,it is particularly relevant in the context of Internet firms that go public while predominantly unprofitable and where the informational and incentive problems are particularly acute.For instance,Mudambi and Treichel (2005)find that a substantial reduction in equity holdings of the top management of Internet firms signals an impending cash crisis.We,therefore,argue that the greater the decline in the pre-to-post IPO ownership of top managers and directors,the lower the probability of attaining profitability,and consequently the longer the time-to-profitability.Hypothesis 2:The decline in ownership of officers and directors from pre-to-post-IPO is negatively related to the probability of attaining profitability and positively related to time-to-profitability after the IPO.3.2.Management qualityAn extensive body of research has examined the impact of top management team (TMT)characteristics on firm outcomes for established firms as well as for new ventures by drawing from human capital and demography theories (Eisenhardt and Schoonhoven,7B.A.Jain et al./Journal of Business Venturing xx (2007)xxx –xxx Please cite this article as:Jain,B.A.et al.The path-to-profitability of Internet IPO firms.Journal of Business8 B.A.Jain et al./Journal of Business Venturing xx(2007)xxx–xxx1990;Finkelstein and Hambrick,1990;Wiersema and Bantel,1992;Hambrick et al.,1996; Beckman et al.,2007).For instance,researchers drawing from human capital theories study the impact of characteristics such as type and amount of experience of TMTs on performance(Cooper et al.,1994;Gimeno et al.,1997;Burton et al.,2002;Baum and Silverman,2004).Additionally,Beckman et al.(2007)argue that demographic arguments are distinct from human capital arguments in that they examine team composition and diversity in addition to experience.The authors consequently examine the impact of characteristics such as background affiliation,composition,and turnover of TMT members on the likelihood of firms completing an IPO.Overall,researchers have generally found evidence to support arguments that human capital and demographic characteristics of TMT members influence firm outcomes.Drawing from signaling theory,we argue that the quality of the TMTof IPO firms can serve as a signal of the ability of a firm to attain post-IPO profitability.Since management quality is costly to acquire,signaling theory implies that by hiring higher quality management,high value firms can signal their superior prospects and separate themselves from low value firms with less capable managers.The beneficial impact of management quality in the IPO market includes the ability to attract more prestigious investment bankers,generate stronger institutional investor demand,raise capital more effectively,lower underwriting expenses, attract stronger analyst following,make better investment and financing decisions,and consequently influence the short and long-run post-IPO operating and stock performance (Chemmanur and Paeglis,2005).Thus,agency theory,in turn,would argue that higher quality management is more likely to earn their marginal productivity of labor and thus have a lower incentive to shirk,thereby also leading to more favorable post-IPO outcomes.8 We focus our analyses on the signaling impact of CEO and CFO quality on post-IPO performance.We focus on these two members of the TMT of IPO firms since they are particularly influential in establishing beneficial networks,providing legitimacy to the organization,and are instrumental in designing,communicating,and implementing the various strategic choices and standard operating procedures that are likely to influence post-IPO performance.3.2.1.CEO characteristicsCEOs play a major role in designing and implementing strategic choices and policies for their firms.Their actions can have long-term significance since they typically define long-term policies of the firm(Parrino,1997).While the role and influence of CEOs on strategic choices,incentive mechanisms,accountability issues,and consequently performance is vital for all types of organizations,their impact is especially relevant for newly public firms that face significant competitive,product market,and financing challenges during the post-IPO phase.The role and impact of CEOs can be even more critical for the subset of technology related IPO firms since they may require fundamentally different skill sets and competencies from CEOs compared to those required to run companies in more traditional industries.We assess CEO quality by focusing on variables that capture the extent of general and specific human capital developed by them through their prior work experience and their risk propensity and decision-making behavior.In distinguishing between general and specific8We thank the Associate Editor,Phil Phan for suggesting this explanation.Please cite this article as:Jain,B.A.et al.The path-to-profitability of Internet IPO firms.Journal of Business。

外国企业文化文献1. Hofstede, G. (1980). Culture's Consequences: International Differences in Work-Related Values. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications.- This book explores the impact of culture on work-related values and behaviors in different countries. It provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and comparing cultural differences and their implications for multinational companies.2. Trompenaars, F., & Hampden-Turner, C. (1997). Riding the waves of culture: Understanding cultural diversity in business. New York: McGraw-Hill.- This book offers insights into cultural differences in business practices and provides practical advice for managing cultural diversity in multinational companies. It presents a model for understanding and navigating cultural differences in different business contexts.3. Adler, N. J. (2008). International dimensions of organizational behavior. Mason, OH: South-Western/Cengage Learning.- This textbook provides an overview of various aspects of organizational behavior in an international context. It covers topics such as cross-cultural communication, leadership, motivation, andteamwork, offering insights into the challenges and opportunities of managing multinational teams.4. Hall, E. T. (1976). Beyond culture. New York: Doubleday.- In this book, Edward T. Hall explores the concept of culture and its impact on communication and behavior. It delves into the differences between high-context and low-context cultures and provides valuable insights for understanding and navigating cultural differences in international business settings.5. Schein, E. H. (2010). Organizational culture and leadership. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass.- This book examines the role of organizational culture in shaping the behavior and performance of companies. It explores the various layers of culture within organizations and offers practical guidance for managing and transforming company culture in a global context.These references provide a range of perspectives on the topic of foreign company culture and can serve as valuable resources for understanding and managing cultural differences in international business.。

Unit 1~2Mercantilism 重商主义 Neomeicantilist 新重商主义者Trade surplus 贸易顺差Quota and tariff 配额和关税Government intervention 政府干预Zero-sum game 零和博弈Positive-sum game 常和博弈The theory of absolute advantage 绝对优势理论The theory of comparative advantage 比较优势理论Factor endowments 要素禀赋理论Product life cycle 产品生命周期（+theory ……理论）Economies of scale 规模经济Diminishing returns 收益递减规律Green revolution 绿色革命Voluntary restriction 自动出口限制Deposit 佣金First mover advantage 先占优势Barrier to entry 进入(市场)壁垒Porter’s diamond theory 波特的钻石理论National competitive advantage 国家竞争优势The department of commerce 商务部Letter of credit 信用证Draft /bill of exchange 汇票bill of lading B/L 提单Sight draft 即期汇票Time draft 远期汇票Banker ‘s acceptance 银行承兑（+bill …汇票）Trade acceptance 商业承兑汇票Countertrade 对等贸易Barter 易货贸易Switch trading 转手贸易Offset 抵消Counter purchase 互购贸易Compensation trade 补偿贸易Mercantilism suggests that it is in a country’s best interest to maintain a trade surplus -- to export more than it imports（重商主义就是保持贸易顺差以实现一国的最大利益---出口超过进口）Mercantilism advocates government intervention(介入) to achieve a surplus in the balance of trade （重商主义主张政府介入以便实现对外贸易顺差）It views trade as a zero-sum game - one in which a gain by one country results in a loss by another （将贸易看成零和博弈，一个国家收益一个国家受损）Absolute Advantage 绝对优势Adam Smith argued that a country has an absolute advantage in the production of a product when it is more efficient than any other country in producing it亚当斯密认为一个国家生产一种商品比其他任何国家效率都高时存在绝对优势According to Smith, countries should specialize in the production of goods for which they have an absolute advantage and then trade these goods for the goods produced by other countries 按照亚当斯密的说法，各国应该专门生产具有绝对优势的商品，然后用他们交换其他国家生产的商品The Benefit（好处） of Absolute Advantage and Free TradeThe Principle for International Division of Labor–Absolute Advantage 国际分工的原则---绝对优势The Consequence（结果） of Division of Labor and Free Trade 分工的结果和自由贸易1. To Production: the Flow of the Factor of Production 生产要素的流动； the Efficiency of Factor Distribution 要素分配效率；the Quantity of Production 产品质量。

NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With Impact! ! ! ! ! ! DIAGNOSTIC MODELS: AN INTRODUCTIONJulie A. C. NoolanTraditional diagnostic models can be categorized as descriptive models or normative models.Descriptive modelsWith descriptive models, the role of the OD practitioner is to illuminate “what is” for the client, and “what could be”. Within descriptive models, contingency theorists would argue that the OD practitioner facilitates change only, not focus. The client determines the direction of change and the OD practitioner helps the client get there. Most diagnostic models fit under the “descriptive” category. Examples include:Bolman and Deal: Four Frames ModelFreedman: Socio-technical Systems ModelGalbraith: Star ModelHornstein and Tichy: Emergent Pragmatic Model[Sometimes used in developing consultant or company specific models]McKinsey: 7-S ModelNadler and Tushman: Congruence ModelNormative ModelsWith normative models, the practitioner recommends specific directions for change, prior to the diagnosis – the “one best way of managing.” Examples include:! ! Blake and Mouton’s Grid [Concern for People/Concern for Productivity 9, 9].Likert’s ProfilesYet other diagnostic approaches include Levinson’s Clinical Historical Approach, patterned on a psychoanalytic approach to the client system.NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With Impact! ! ! !WHAT’S IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT IN ORGANIZATIONSBy Robert J. Marshak, Ph.D.Organizational theorists and consultants have developed a wide variety of models identifying important organizational elements and their interrelationships. Each is predicated on a particular theory/theories or perspective(s), and each intended to highlight and bring into focus a broad range of data and experience for purposes of diagnosis and intervention.A range of well-known models are displayed on the following pages. Please note:Most of the models suggest interaction or interrelationships among all theselected variables.Many of the same variables are contained in all the models, although notnecessarily in the same way or with the same emphasis.The fewest number of variables depicted in a model is four (Leavitt), the greatestis twelve (Burke-Litwin), most are between five and seven.Each model leaves out variables that another school of thought might include oremphasize. For example, only the Hanna model mentions “hard numbers,” i.e. financial performance.LIST OF MODELS INCLUDED, in Alphabetical Order by Author/sCompiled by Robert J. Marshak, Ph.DBeckhard, Richard GRPI 2-4 Beckhard, Richard & Pritchard, Wendy Change Model 2-7 Blake, Robert & Mouton, Jane Managerial Grid 2-8 Bolman, Lee G. & Deal, Terrence E. Four Frames Model 2-9 Burke, W. Warner & Litwin Causal Model of Performance & Change 2-12 Freedman, Arthur M. - Swamp Model Of Sociotechnical Systems 2-13 Galbraith, Jay R. Star Model 2-21 Hanna, David P. Organizational Performance Model 2-22 Killman, Ralph Five Track Model 2-23 Kotter, John P. Organizational Dynamics Model 2-24 Leavitt, Harold J. 2-25 Mckinsey Consulting 7 Ss Model 2-26 Morgan, Gareth Metaphors 2-28 Nadler, David A. & Tushman, Michael L. A Congruence Model for Diagnosing 2-29Organization BehaviorWeisbord, Marvin R. Six-Box Diagnostic Model 2-30 NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With ImpactGRPI MODELRICHARD BECKHARDGOALS-- Do we have clarity?-- Do we have agreement?ROLES -- What are our roles and responsibilities? PROCEDURES-- How we do our work?NEA/NTL OD Certificate Program Diagnosing Organizations With Impact !!Procedure, rules, approaches?SystemsHow we work together?INTERACTIONS -- Interpersonal, inter-group?How do we work together in a mutuallysupportive way?Source: Richard Beckhard, Optimizing Team Building Effort, Journal of Contemporary Business,Vol1(3),1972BECKHARD’S G R P I MODELJulie A. C. Noolan, Ph.D.Although Beckhard’s model* originally addressed teambuilding, I have found it a very useful approach for dealing with a broad range of groups and companies when they are stuck. In this model you work from the top down.As organization development consultants we are often called in when a group appears to be in conflict. And often our backgrounds tend to make us focus more on the inter-personal or inter-group dysfunctionality. But Beckhard would argue that that is the last thing we should look at when a group is having difficulties. He says that not only does it make more sense to start at the top, ensuring that a group or organization has clarity regarding its vision, mission, or purpose, but that it is also much easier and quicker to work these issues, getting agreement, than it is to deal with interactions, whether they be between individuals or parts of an organization.I describe it sometimes using a sports analogy. It doesn’t make matter how well the players on a football team like each other if they don’t know that their goal is to get that football across the goal line or kicked between the uprights. And it doesn’t matter how well they get along with each other, and pat each other on the back or elsewhere, if they don’t understand what their positions or roles are on the field—that the quarterback throws the ball and the place kicker kicks it, and so on. And it doesn’t matter that they really trust each other, if they don’t understand the procedures or rules of the game. And it is only when there is clarity and agreement on the above three areas that the consultant should address interactions, either inter-personally or inter-group.This model is one of the templates I routinely run through in my head in working with a group, even if it is not what I have initially been called upon to address. Without clarity on goals, roles, and procedures, there is little long-term benefit in working at the interaction level.*Richard Beckhard (1972) “Optimizing Team Building Effort” Journal of Contemporary Business. Volume 1 (3) pp.23-32NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With ImpactNEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With ImpactMISSION OR PURPOSE! ! ! ! Who we are What we doFor whom do we do it Why we do itGOALS OR OBJECTIVES! ! ! Priorities! What’s the work and how is it sequenced (milestones)? How is success measured? Specific, time bound, with accountabilitiesROLES! ! ! ! ! Where does leadership for this team/group reside? How is the work divided up?Individual responsibilities, accountabilities, authority How are roles addressed across interfaces?To whom am I responsible and who is responsible to me?PRACTICES! ! ! ! How is work organized?How do we “operate”…..what are the important “norms” How and when do we communicate, and to whom?All infrastructures: performance management, decision making, problem-solving,resolving conflict, organization structure, team/group versus individual practices, etc.RELATIONSHIPS! ! ! ! ! How do we work together in a mutually supportive way?What do we need from one another and what do we get/not get? What are our expectations of one another and of the group? How do we give feedback to one another?Trust, support…..saying what we’ll do and doing what we say.BECKHARD & PRITCHARD CHANGE MODELSource: Richard Beckhard & Wendy Pritchard, Changing the Essence: The Art of Creating and LeadingFundamental Change in Organizations, San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Publishers, 1992NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With ImpactMANAGERIAL GRIDBLAKE and MOUTONConcern for People9NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With Impact9Concern for ProductionSource: Burke, W. Warner Organization Development 2nd ed. Pages 116-121.NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With ImpactTHE FOUR FRAMES MODELbyBOLMAN AND DEALStructural! Roles! Relationships ! Structures! Rules & PoliciesGoal: CoordinationHR! Tailoring the organization to meethuman needsGoal: Individual job fulfillmentPolitical! Scarce resources which lead to:conflict, bargaining and coalitionsGoal: Increase political skillsSymbolic! ! Rituals ! Myths! Ceremonies ! Beliefs Organization’s shared values andcultureGoal: Manage symbols, myths, and traditionsThe following is excerpted from Bolman and Deal: Modern Approaches to Understanding and Managing Organizations. Jossey-Bass, 1989.Bolman and Deal describe their model as embracing “conceptual pluralism” – they take the various schools or organization thought and categorize the perspectives into four “frames” to characterize these different vantage points. As they say, frames are windows on the world. Frames filter out some things while allowing others to pass through easily. Frames help us to order the world and decide what actions to take. Every manager has a personal frame, or image, of organizations to gather information, make judgements, and get things done.Understanding organizations is nearly impossible when the manager isunconsciously wed to a single, narrow perspective. Managers in all organizations can increase their effectiveness and their freedom through the use of multiple vantage points. To be locked into a single path is likely to produce error and self-imprisonment. We believe that managers who understand their own frame –and who can adeptly rely on more than one limited perspective – are better equipped tounderstand and manage the complex everyday world of organizations. Sometimes they can make a significant difference in how that world responds.There are four frames for looking at an organization in this model:1. Structural – the rational, tough-minded side of organizations … clarifyingbasic issues in organization design … the relationship between goals andstructure organizations.2. Human resource – the human side of enterprise … examines strengths andweaknesses of current approaches to humanizing the workplace.3. Political -- the darker side of organizations – conflict, coalitions, andstruggles for power and positions.4. Symbolic – organizational symbols … explains the roles played by myths,rituals, ceremonies, and plays at all levels of the organizations.The structural frame emphasizes the importance of formal roles and relationships. Structures – commonly depicted in organization charts – are created to fit an organization’s environment and technology. Organizations allocate responsibilities to participants (“division of labor”) and create rules, policies, and management hierarchies to coordinate diverse activities. Problems arise when the structure does not fit the situation. At that point, some form of reorganization is needed to remedy the mismatch.The human resource frame establishes its territory because organizations are inhabited by people. Individuals have needs, feelings, and prejudices. They have both skills and limitations. They have great capacity to learn and a sometimes greater capacity to defend old attitudes and beliefs. From a human resource perspective, the key to effectiveness is to tailor organizations to people – to find an organizational form that will enable people to get the job done while feeling good about what they are doing. Problems arise when human needs are throttled.The political frame views organizations as arenas of scarce resources where power and influence are constantly affecting the expected because of differences in needs, perspectives, and life-styles among different individuals and groups. Bargaining, coercion, and compromise are all part of everyday organizational life. Coalitions form around specific interests and may change as issues come and go. Problems may arise because power is unevenly distributed or is so broadly dispersed that it is difficult to get anything done. Solutions are developed through political skill and acumen – much as Machiavelli suggested centuries ago.The symbolic frame abandons the assumptions of rationality that appear in each of the other frames and treats the organization as theater or carnival. Organizations NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With Impactare viewed as held together more by shared values and culture than by goals and policies. They are propelled more by rituals, ceremonies, stories, heroes, and myths than by rules, policies, and managerial authority. Organization is drama: the drama engages actors inside, and outside audiences form impressions based on what they see occurring on-stage. Problems arise when actors play their parts badly, when symbols lose their meaning, when ceremonies and rituals lose their potency. Improvements come through symbol, myth and magic.Each frame has its own vision of reality. Only when managers can look at organizations through all four frames are they likely to appreciate the depth and complexity of organizational life. Successful managers rely intuitively on all the different frames, blending them into a coherent, pragmatic, personal theory of organizations. We believe than an explicit introduction to, and grounding in, all four frames can enrich any manager’s native intuition. Success becomes possible even for the great majority of us who were not born with the ability to understand and act effectively in such a complicated and ambiguous world.NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With ImpactCAUSAL MODEL OF PERFORMANCE CHANGEBURKE-LITWINSource: W. Warner Burke, in Ann Howard (ed.) Diagnosis for Organizational Change,Guilford Press, 1994NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With ImpactTHE SWAMP MODEL OF SOCIOTECHNICAL SYSTEMSCopyright ©1987, Arthur M. Freedman, Ph.D. NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With ImpactElements of Socio-Technical SystemsArthur M. Freedman, Ph.D.1. Vision: Goal Structure (Organizational Direction):A. Alternative Future Scenarios: Best-Case, Worst-Case, and Most Likely-Case.B. Mission.C. Strategic Goals or Operational Objectives.D. Strategic Plans.E. Philosophy and Values.2. Production:A. Nature of the core work processes:1. Project (“job shop”).2. Production (assembly line).3. Continuous process.B. Operational plans for:1. Human Resources:a. Number and type of employees (current and future).b. Deployment schedule for employees.c. Inducements to be exchanged for contributions.2. Work flow (design or redesign of the organization’s value-adding businessprocesses).3. Differentiation of responsibilities: tasks, activities and functions.4. Integrative structure for communications and decision-making.5. Assessing match between “expected” and “actual” performance andresults.6. Scanning for, identifying, defining, and solving emerging operationalproblems or improvement opportunities.C. Corrective and preventive maintenance measures for human resources.D. Corrective and preventive maintenance for physical resources3. Financials:A. Projected versus actual revenues (funds).B. Budgeted versus actual expenses (costs).C. Profit and loss.D. Financial management and auditing systems and procedures – including real-time value-adding activity-based accounting (EVA).NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With Impact4. People (Human Resource Management Systems):A. Strategic H.R. Plans: Determining how to satisfy current and projected H.R.needs for all organizational subsystems.B. H.R. Utilization: Developing, enhancing, retaining competencies of currentemployees to satisfy current work requirements.C. H.R. Development: Preparing current employees to meet projected workrequirements.D. H.R. Monitoring: Auditing systems to identify and study human performanceand indications of underachievement or non-achievement.5. Organizational Structure:A. Organizational charts indicating hierarchical levels, positions, and lines ofauthority and accountability.B. Responsibilities for individuals (roles) and intact work units (charters): Tasks,activities, and functions.C. Policies and procedures.D. Rules and regulations.6. Technology:A. “Hard” technologies: E.g., equipment, materials, facilities.B. “Soft” technologies: E.g., managerial-supervisory practices; interpersonal,team and inter-group communications, problem-solving and decision-making processes.7. Organizational Culture and Climate:A. Culture: The persistent manifestations and impacts of historicalorganizational traditions, practices, beliefs, values, precedents, myths, andlegends that are the foundations of contemporary, informal (unwritten) norms and standards governing acceptable behavior by organizational members. NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With ImpactB. Climate: Current levels of tension, sense of urgency, pace, and tempo ofactivities in response to temporary conditions (e.g., crisis, emergency,uncertainty, turbulence, calm, predictability, or consistency).8. Organizational Leadership:A. Support the goal structure (direction) of the enterprise.B. Insure the integrity of the boundaries between the system and the externalenvironment:1. Support (or perform) boundary management functions including thedevelopment of teamwork between organizational elements orsubsystems and significant external stakeholders and constituents.2. Represent the requirements, preferences and concerns of all parts of theorganization to their relevant, significant external stakeholders andconstituents.3. Represent the requirements, preferences, and concerns of relevant,significant external stakeholders and constituents to the organization’smajor subsystems and employees.C. Provide “Variance Analysis”1. Scan, monitor all socio-technical system functions within the enterprise.2. Identify, define operational problems, improvement opportunities, andentrepreneurial opportunities.3. Develop and implement action plans to solve or prevent problems and tocapitalize on improvement or entrepreneurial opportunities.4. Evaluate effectiveness of corrective and preventive actions taken.D. Ensure timely, effective corrective and preventive maintenance for human,fiscal, and physical resources.9. Input-Output Transactions at the Interface Between the Organization andits Relevant External Stakeholders:A. Relevant stakeholders and constituents are identified as having a legitimate“stake” or vested interest in the enterprise and its manner of operating.B. Inputs imported into the organization:1. Nature of the inputs which are delivered by supply-side stakeholders:E.g., market information, technical knowledge and skills, information onregulations and ground rules, people, materials, equipment, and/orfinancial resources.2. Quality of inputs: I.e., the degree to which inputs provided by supplierssatisfy the organization’s specifications (standards or criteria),requirements, and preferences.NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With Impact3. Reliability and/or timelines of delivery of inputs to the organization.C. Outputs exported from the enterprise:1. Nature of the outputs delivered by the organization to its demand-sidestakeholders (customers and users): E.g., goods, services, marketing orsales activities, dividends to shareholders, reports to governmentalregulators, employees’ salaries and wages, and waste materials andgarbage.2. Quality of outputs: The degree to which the system’s outputs satisfy thecustomers’ specifications, requirements, and preferences.3. Reliability and/or timelines of delivery of outputs to customers and users.D. Organizational boundary management systems or mechanisms:1. Identity of persons or groups responsible for negotiating and conductinginput-output transactions with external demand-side or supply-sidestakeholders.2. Standards or criteria used to determine the limits of acceptability of inputsfrom suppliers or outputs to customers.3. Methods, procedures, or processes used to determine “acceptability”.4. Degree of decision-making authority, including the source or basis of thisauthority.5. Degree to which the boundary management system scans the externalenvironment (proactively or reactively) for relevant activity, changes,trends, novel conditions or events, etc.E. Methods of managing transactions across lateral interfaces between theorganization and its relevant stakeholders and constituents:1. Effective communication: Accurate, timely, comprehensive transmissionand reception of relevant, influential input and feedback.2. Goal clarification and negotiation for agreement.3. Role clarification and negotiation (and re-negotiation).4. Conflict management and utilization.5. Clarification and negotiation of mutual expectations.6. Negotiating decision-making procedures and strategies, includingresponsibilities and authority.7. Joint identification and solving of problems or capitalizing on improvementopportunities.8. Negotiating commitments and consequences.Copyright ©1987, Arthur M. Freedman, Ph.D. NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With ImpactNEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With Impact! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Assessing the Fit Between a System and Its EnvironmentArthur M. Freedman, Ph.D.Divide group into sub-groups (teams) that represent major stakeholder groups or constituent populations within the larger organization (e.g., “Managers,” “Labor Union,” “Finance,” “Maintenance,” “Marketing,” “Engineering Group,” “Human Resources”).Each team is to describe itself in terms of its:1. Direction being taken by the groupWhat is your Vision of the world in which you must compete, operate and survivein the future?What is your Mission? In what business or businesses is your group involved?What is your market? How do you add value to your customers’ operations? What is your competitive advantage?What are the Strategic Goals that you must achieve to survive and grow? Whatmust you do to contribute to the realization of Mission of your larger organization?What is your Strategy to achieve these Goals?What are the Values or Philosophy that you use to guide your group’s operationand the behavior of its members?2. ProductionFrom whom does your group get its work requests? How are they originated?How do you know what to produce? Why are you able to obtain work? How do you attract work?What goods, products, or services does your group produce? What will yourgroup be producing in the future?What standards or criteria must be satisfied for these work results to beconsidered acceptable? Who establishes these standards or criteria?How effective is your group? Are you satisfying these production standards orcriteria? Are you profitable? Are your deliveries on time? Are you efficient? How do you know?3. PeopleHow many of what types of people doe the group currently require to operateeffectively? Do you have all these people under contract now? Are your people over- or under-qualified?NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With Impact! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! How many of your people will still be fully qualified next year? Five years fromnow? 10 years from now? 20 years from now? Is it possible that the future work demands that your people must satisfy will exceed their current types or levels of competence?How many of your fully qualified people will leave or retire next year? Five yearsfrom now? 10 years from now? 20 years from now?How many of what types of people will the group require next year? Five yearsfrom now? 10 years from now? 20 years from now?Where will your group find the people you will need? How will you recruit,screen, and select those who are fully qualified?What will it take to attract and contract with the fully qualified people that yourgroup will need?4. StructureWho is responsible for which tasks, activities, and functions? Who has what level of authority over whom? Who is accountable to whom?What guidelines, rules, regulations, policies, and procedures reinforce, limit orprescribe the behavior or activities of the members of this group?5. Culture and climateWhat behaviors are acceptable and encouraged or rewarded in this group? What behaviors are unacceptable and tolerated, ignored or punished? What is the current emotional climate within the group?Is your group’s culture and climate similar or different compared with theprevailing culture and climate within the larger organization? Among your stakeholder groups? Among your constituent populations?6. LeadershipHow does your group stay in touch with internal organizational and externalenvironmental events and conditions? How do you know if significant changes are taking place that could effect your group’s business?How does your group ensure that its members’ activities are all oriented towardthe same common goals and purpose?How does the group identify, define and solve its problems – and exploit orcapitalize on emerging opportunities to improve its effectiveness?NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With Impact! ! ! ! !7. Transactions with stakeholder groups and constituent populationsWhich significant groups or individuals have some vested interest in this group’sactivities? Which of these suppliers, customers, regulators, investors, etc. are internal to the group’s organization? Which are external? What does the group “import” from its “suppliers”?What does the group “export” to its “customers” or “users” or “targets”? By whom and how are these transactions managed?Through the use of which methods are these transactions managed so as tomaximize mutual satisfaction and to minimize or eliminate difficulties? Copyright ©1987, Arthur M. Freedman, Ph.D.STAR MODELJay R. GALBRAITHNEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With ImpactSource: Jay R. Galbraith, Organization Design, Addison-Wesley, 1977Integrating IndividualsChoice of: Promotion Training & Development Transfer Selection ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Compensation System Promotion Basis Leadership StyleJob DesignORGANIZATIONAL PERFORMANCE MODELDAVID P. HANNAPeople InformationSource: David P. Hanna, Designing Organizations for High Performance, Addison-Wesley, 1988NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With ImpactFIVE TRACK MODELRALPH KILMANNSource: Ralph Kilmann, Beyond the Quick Fix, San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass Publishers, 1984NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With ImpactORGANIZATIONAL DYNAMICS MODEL: JOHN P. KOTTERSource: John P. Kotter, Organizational Dynamics: Diagnosis and Intervention, Addison-Wesley, 1978NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With ImpactLEAVITT MODELSource: Harold J. Leavitt, “Applied Organizational Change in Industry: Structural, Technological and Humanistic Approaches,” in James G. March (Ed.) Handbook of Organizations, Rand McNally and Company, 1965.NEA/NTL OD Certificate ProgramDiagnosing Organizations With Impact。

University of GroningenProductivity Differentials in the U.S. and EU Distributive Trade Sector: Statistical Myth Or Reality?Marcel Timmer Robert Inklaar Bart van Ark University of Groningen and The Conference Board OECD Workshop on Services 15 & 16 November 20041BackgroundGrowth of value added per hour worked in trade, U.S. and EU Motor vehicle trade Wholesale trade 1980-1995 1995-2002 1980-1995 1995-2002 U.S. 2.0 4.3 4.0 8.1 EU-15 1.9 1.2 2.7 1.6 France Germany Netherlands U.K. 1.9 1.4 2.4 3.8 0.5 -1.0 1.3 4.2 4.7 2.7 2.1 3.8 1.2 1.6 3.5 2.5 Retail trade 1980-1995 1995-2002 2.5 7.1 2.0 1.5 3.4 2.2 2.5 2.4 1.5 1.3 1.1 4.0Distributive trade sector accounts for large part of post1995 productivity boom in U.S. (Triplett & Bosworth, 2004) Big part of EU-US productivity differential is traced to this sector (van Ark, Inklaar and McGuckin, 2002)Combination of ICT and organisational innovation has transformed sector into “information industry” (McGuckin, Spiegelman and van Ark, 2004) 2But is the EU-US productivity growth differential real or is it a measurement issue?Impact of “inside the box” quality adjustments for ICT on U.S. trade output measure Experimental estimates of double deflated real margin instead of real sales index Sources of productivity growth in trade: increase in service output or saving in intermediate inputs?3Main conclusionsThere is a slight upward bias in U.S. trade output measures due to ICT but much more so in wholesale than in retail services Double deflated estimates of real output margin do not change aggregate retail measure in U.S., but cause shifts across retail industries Decline in sales price is main cause of productivity gain in trade, but saving in intermediate inputs add to U.S. advantage Measurement issues suggest upward bias but U.S. advantage remains intact4Changing business models in distributive trade should focus attention on determinants of gross margin ...Sales of goods Gross margin Value added Intermediate inputs Purchases of goods sold Labour Capital5… in particular from perspective of real or volume growthVariables Observed Variables pS qS = S - p S S C qM= q S M=S-C pII Imputed Values Imputed QuantitiesSales Price (p S) Sales Quantity (q S) Sales Value (S) Goods Purchases Value (C) Margin Quantity (qM) Margin Value (M) Intermediate Inputs Price (pII ) Intermediate Inputs Quantity (qII ) Intermediate Inputs Value (II)qII = II on Volume of trade services does not only depend- pII II number of transactions (number of boxes) but also on Value Added of service provided, which M - II VA = is key for success of quality Value (VA) VA Value Added Quantity (q ) QVA = w [q M - (1-w) qII ] failure of industry The quality of products (“inside the box”) must be distinguished from the quality of the retail service 6EXERCISE 1: DOES ICT PRODUCT QUALITY AFFECT EU-US DIFFERENTIAL? Not the share of ICT consumption but the price change of ICT products makes the difference between US and EuropeShare of audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment in household consumption expenditure, and associated CPI change Price change Share in goods 1995 2003 1995-2003 France 3.5 3.9 -5.8 Germany 3.4 2.4 -3.5 Netherlands 4.9 4.8 -4.8 UK 5.2 5.6 -8.1 US 4.2 4.1 -13.07Excluding core industries that trade ICT products reduces U.S. retail sales volume marginally, but it is more substantial for wholesale tradeContributions of Industries to Real Sales Growth in the U.S., 1987-2002 Real sales 1995-2002 over 19871995 1987-1995 1995-2002 3.1 2.7 0.4 4.6 3.8 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.4Industry name total retail total retail excluding 4431 and 4541 differencetotal wholesale 4.1 4.2 0.1 total wholesale excluding 4234 and 4236 2.9 2.7 -0.2 difference 1.2 1.5 0.3 4234 = Commercial equipment; 4236 = Electrical and electronic goods; 4431 = Electronics and appliance stores; 4541 = Electronic shopping and mail order houses8Exercise 1 on impact of ICT provides upper bound estimate of biasNot the whole of ICT-related trade industries should be considered, but only products which use hedonic price indices European countries also partly use hedonic price indices or alternative quality adjusted method (e.g. high frequency matched model deflators for ICT) … but it may not be confined to ICT: on the whole, U.S. proceeds faster in applying quality adjusted price indices throughout9EXERCISE 2: DOES USE OF SALES INDEX GIVE BIAS TO U.S. ADVANTAGE? Three methods:use of real sales index (common practice, but different degree of detail across countries) use of margin prices (experimental stage: BLS) use of double deflation of sales and purchased of goods soldDouble deflation cancels “inside the box” price change out --> better proxy of real margin in line with services provided Problems:Data requirements high => purchase prices Sensitive to measurement error => margin is residual10Exercise 2a: aggregate double deflation for trade sector as a whole (retail + wholesale)Simplified flow of goods for retail goodsImports Domestic productionWholesale and retail tradeFinal consumptionCalculation of change in purchase price:& iC = w I piI + 1 − w I piD & & pCalculation of change in implict margin price:()& pM1 & & = M p S − 1 − v M pC v([] )11Implicit margin prices - based on double deflation - decline everywhere but with differences across countriesSales, purchases and margin prices for household consumption goods 1987-1995 Sales Purchases of which: Margin prices prices Domestic Imports prices France 1.9 0.7 0.9 -2.0 4.5 Germany 1.7 1.3 1.3 -0.1 2.9 Netherlands 1.0 0.4 0.5 -0.1 2.1 UK 3.3 4.1 3.2 0.9 1.4 US 2.2 2.2 1.7 0.5 2.0 1995-2002 Sales Purchases of which: Margin prices prices Domestic Imports prices France 1.3 0.5 0.7 -0.2 2.9 Germany 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 Netherlands 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.7 UK 0.4 0.3 0.7 -0.4 0.7 US 0.6 0.9 1.1 -0.2 0.1 12 Note: Germany: 1991-1995 instead of 1987-1995With double deflation US (and UK !) trade sectors retain growth advantage over continental European countries & it upwardly biases Europe rather than U.S.Growth of retail trade gross output, National Accounts versus double deflated prices, 1995-2001 1987-1995 1995-2002 National Double National Double Accounts deflated Accounts deflated 2.3 France -0.1 2.3 -0.4 Germany n.a. 1.1 n.a. 2.4 2.9 Netherlands 2.7 2.6 2.1 UK n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.9 3.3 US 3.4 5.3 5.3 Germany 1987-1995 refers to 1991-199513Exercise 2b: double deflation by retail category puts much higher demand on data$13bln 10% $9bln $22blnImports24% Wholesale 46%Retail: Department storesConsumptionDomestic production20%EXERCISE 3: IS U.S. OUTPUT GROWTH IN TRADE DRIVEN BY MORE OUTPUT OR LESS INPUTS?Variables Observed Variables pS qS = S - p S S C qM= q S M=S-C pII qII = II - pII II VA = M - II QVA = w [q M - (1-w) qII ] Imputed Values Imputed Quantities Sales Price (p S) Sales Quantity (q S) Sales Value (S) Goods Purchases Value (C) Margin Quantity (qM) Margin Value (M) Intermediate Inputs Price (pII ) Intermediate Inputs Quantity (qII ) Intermediate Inputs Value (II) Value Added Value (VA) Value Added Quantity (q VA)15In U.S. retailing about a quarter of acceleration is due to saving in intermediate inputsA. Retail (annul average change, %) 1987-1995 4.5 0.3 4.8 8.3 3.6 1.7 3.1 1.4 2.8 6.7 1995-2002 7.4 0.3 7.7 7.7 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.0 3.9 1995-2002 over 1987-95 3.0 0.0 2.9 -0.6 -3.6 -0.9 -1.3 -0.41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Quantity of output x O/VA ratio Difference between quantity of sales and output Quantity of sales x O/VA ratio Value of sales x O/VA ratio Price of sales x O/VA ratioQuantity of intermediate inputs x II/VA ratio Value of intermediate inputs x II/VA ratio Price of intermediate inputs x II/VA ratio 9 (=1- 6) Quantity of value added B. Wholesale1 2 3 4 5Quantity of output x O/VA ratio Difference between quantity of sales and output Quantity of sales x O/VA ratio Value of sales x O/VA ratio Price of sales x O/VA ratio1987-1995 6.3 -0.2 6.0 8.2 2.1 2.3 3.4 1.1 3.91995-2002 5.8 0.1 5.8 3.9 -1.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.2 6.61995-2002 over 1987-95 -0.5 0.3 -0.2 -4.3 -4.1 -2.9 -3.7 -0.8 2.76 Quantity of intermediate inputs x II/VA ratio 7 Value of intermediate inputs x II/VA ratio 8 Price of intermediate inputs x II/VA ratio 9 (=1- 6) Quantity of value addedIn wholesale entire productivity gain in U.S. is due to saving of intermediate inputsA. Retail (annul average change, %) 1987-1995 4.5 0.3 4.8 8.3 3.6 1.7 3.1 1.4 2.8 6.7 1995-2002 7.4 0.3 7.7 7.7 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.0 3.9 1995-2002 over 1987-95 3.0 0.0 2.9 -0.6 -3.6 -0.9 -1.3 -0.41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Quantity of output x O/VA ratio Difference between quantity of sales and output Quantity of sales x O/VA ratio Value of sales x O/VA ratio Price of sales x O/VA ratioQuantity of intermediate inputs x II/VA ratio Value of intermediate inputs x II/VA ratio Price of intermediate inputs x II/VA ratio 9 (=1- 6) Quantity of value added B. Wholesale1 2 3 4 5Quantity of output x O/VA ratio Difference between quantity of sales and output Quantity of sales x O/VA ratio Value of sales x O/VA ratio Price of sales x O/VA ratio1987-1995 6.3 -0.2 6.0 8.2 2.1 2.3 3.4 1.1 3.91995-2002 5.8 0.1 5.8 3.9 -1.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.2 6.61995-2002 over 1987-95 -0.5 0.3 -0.2 -4.3 -4.1 -2.9 -3.7 -0.8 2.76 Quantity of intermediate inputs x II/VA ratio 7 Value of intermediate inputs x II/VA ratio 8 Price of intermediate inputs x II/VA ratio 9 (=1- 6) Quantity of value addedAre intermediate input savings real?Saving on intermediate inputs might be sign of greater dominance of “lean retailing”, competitive pressures and new entries … but we need comparative evidence for European countries to assess the differences Income approach in U.S. might overstate value added growth and therefore understate growth in intermediate inputscross-check with census-based approach suggests such problem in wholesale but not in retail 18Main conclusionsThere is a slight upward bias in U.S. trade output measures due to ICT but much more so in wholesale than in retail services Double deflated estimates of real output margin do not change aggregate retail measure in U.S., but cause shifts across retail industries Decline in sales price is main cause of productivity gain in trade, but saving in intermediate inputs add to U.S. advantage Measurement issues suggest upward bias but U.S. advantage remains intact19。

roel model英语作文Roel Model。

Roel Model is a widely recognized and highly influential concept in the field of business management. It has been widely used by organizations around the world to improve their decision-making processes and enhance their overall performance. In this article, we will explore the key features of the Roel Model and discuss its benefits and limitations.The Roel Model is a decision-making framework that was developed by Roel C. Campos, a renowned business strategist. It is based on the principle that effective decision-making requires a systematic approach that takes into account various factors and their interrelationships. The model consists of four key components: Resources, Objectives, Environment, and Leadership.The first component of the Roel Model is Resources. This refers to the assets, capabilities, and resources available to an organization. It includes financial resources, human resources, technological resources, and physical resources. By analyzing and understanding the available resources, organizations can make informed decisions about resource allocation and utilization.The second component of the Roel Model is Objectives. This involves setting clear and measurable goals that align with the organization's mission and vision. Objectives provide a sense of direction and purpose, and they help organizations prioritize their actions and allocate resources effectively. By defining objectives, organizations can focus their efforts on achieving specific outcomes and measure their progress towards those outcomes.The third component of the Roel Model is Environment. This refers to the external factors that impact an organization's operations and performance. It includes the competitive landscape, market conditions, regulatory environment, and socio-cultural factors. By analyzing the environment, organizations can identify opportunities andthreats, and adjust their strategies accordingly. Understanding the environment is crucial for organizations to adapt and thrive in a rapidly changing business landscape.The fourth component of the Roel Model is Leadership. This involves the role of leaders in guiding and influencing the decision-making process. Effective leadership is essential for aligning the organization's resources, objectives, and environment. Leaders should possess strong analytical skills, strategic thinking abilities, and the ability to inspire and motivate others. They should also foster a culture of innovation and continuous improvement.The Roel Model offers several benefits to organizations. Firstly, it provides a structured and systematic approach to decision-making, which reduces the likelihood of making hasty or biased decisions. Secondly, it helps organizations align their resources and efforts towards achieving their objectives, leading to improved performance and productivity. Thirdly, it enhances the organization's ability to adapt to changing environments and seize opportunities. Lastly, it promotes effective leadership and fosters a culture of accountability and collaboration.However, the Roel Model also has its limitations. Firstly, it requires a significant amount of data and information to be collected and analyzed, which can be time-consuming and resource-intensive. Secondly, it relies on accurate and reliable data, and any inaccuracies or biases in the data can lead to flawed decision-making. Thirdly, it may not be suitable for all types of organizations or decision contexts, as different situations may require different decision-making approaches.In conclusion, the Roel Model is a valuable tool for organizations seeking to improve their decision-making processes and enhance their overall performance. By considering the key components of Resources, Objectives, Environment, and Leadership, organizations can make informed and effective decisions that align with their strategic goals. While the model has its limitations, its benefits outweigh the challenges, making it a popular choice among business leaders and managers worldwide.。

第一章测试1【单选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingisnotacharacteristicofaperfectcompetitivemarket?A.Itishighlyregulated.B.Price,cost,andqualityinformationareequallydistributed.C.Anearlyinfinitesetofsupplierscompeteagainstoneanother.D.Customershaveaccesstoallrelevantinformationworldwide.2【单选题】(2分)Allofthefollowingwerevisionsofe-commerceexpressedduringtheearlyyearsofe-commerc eexcept:A.disintermediation.B.anearlyperfectinformationmarketspace.C.friction-freecommerce.D.fastfolloweradvantage.3【多选题】(2分)TheReinventionperiodischaracterizedby_________.A.viralmarketingB.disintermediationC.user-generatedcontentD.localeconomy4【单选题】(2分)Theearlyyearsofe-commerceareconsidered:A.aneconomist'sdreamcometrue,whereforabrieftime,consumershadaccesstoallrelevantmarketinformationa ndtransactioncostsplummeted.B. astunningtechnologicalsuccessastheInternetandtheWebincreasedfromafewthousandtobillionsofe-comm ercetransactionsperyear.C.adramaticbusinesssuccessas85%ofdot-comsformedsince1995becameflourishingbusinesses.D. themostpromisingtimeinhistoryforthesuccessfulimplementationoffirstmoveradvantages.5【单选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingreferstoanydisparityinrelevantmarketinformationamongpartiesinatr ansaction?A.imperfectcompetitionB.dynamicpricingC.informationasymmetryD.unfaircompetitiveadvantage6【单选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingstatementsistrueaboutthetraditionaltradeoffbetweentherichnessan dreachofamarketingmessagepriortothedevelopmentoftheWeb?A.Thesmallertheaudiencereached,thelessrichthemessage.B.Marketingmessageshadlittlerichness.C.Richnesswasunrelatedtoreach.D.Thelargertheaudiencereached,thelessrichthemessage.7【单选题】(2分)Whichofthefollowingisnotauniquefeatureofe-commercetechnology?A.socialtechnologyB.informationasymmetryC.interactivityD.richness8【单选题】(2分)E-commerceisavailablejustabouteverywhereandanytime.Thisisknownas:A.ubiquity.B.reach.C.richness.D.informationdensity.9【判断题】(2分) Interactivitythatenablesproductcustomizationaltersindustrystructurebydecreasingthethr eatofsubstitutes.A.对B.错10【判断题】(2分) Costtransparencyreferstotheeasewithwhichconsumerscanfindoutthevarietyofpricesina marketA.对B.错11【多选题】(2分)Theuniquefeaturesofe-commercetechnologyinclude:A.UbiquityB.SpecificstandardsC.GlobalReachD.Richness12【多选题】(2分)Thegrowthofsociale-commerceisdrivenby_________.A.sharingofproducts,services,andcontentonsocialaccountsB.networknotificationC.integratedsocialcommercetoolsD.socialsign-on13【单选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingisaleadingplatformforsociale-commerce?A.AmazonB.WikipediaC.FacebookD.eBay14【单选题】(2分)Whichtypeofe-commercegeneratedthelargestrevenue？A.M-commerceB.B2CC.B2BD.C2C15【多选题】(2分)Economistsearlyvisionsaboute-commerceinclude_________A.ConsumersarenotpricesensitiveB.InformationasymmetrywouldbegreatlyreducedC.anearlyperfectcompetitiveD.disintermediation第二章测试1【判断题】(2分)Ane-commercebusinessmodelaimstouseandleveragetheuniquequalitiesoftheInternet,th eWeb,andthemobileplatform.A.对B.错2【单选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingisanexampleoftheaffiliaterevenuemodel?A.JDB.QQmusicC.eBayD.Amazon3【单选题】(2分) Assumeyouareanalyzingthemarketopportunityofadistancelearningcompany,Learnmore. com,thatcreateseducationcoursesdeliveredovertheInternetfortheFortune1000corporate market.Assumethattheoverallsizeofthedistancelearningmarketis$25billion.Theoverallm arketcanbebrokendownintothreemajormarketsegments:Corporate,College,andElement ary/HighSchool,eachofwhichaccountsforathirdofthemarket.WithintheCorporatemarket,t herearetwomarketniches:Fortune1000,whichaccountsfor60%ofthemarket,andallothers, whichtogetheraccountfor40%'srealisticmarketoppor tunity,approximately?A.$5billionB.$6.6billionC.$165billionD.$25billion4【单选题】(2分) AllofthefollowingcanbeconsideredadirectorindirectcompetitorofAmazonexcept:A.Priceline.B.eBay.C.Apple'siTunesStore.D.Walmart.5【单选题】(2分) Allofthefollowingmayleadtoacompetitiveadvantageexcept:A.fewerproducts.B.lessexpensivesuppliers.C.betteremployees.D.superiorproducts.6【判断题】(2分) Thesinglemostimportantelementofabusinessmodelisthemanagementteamresponsiblefo rmakingthemodelwork.A.错B.对7【判断题】(2分)Cooperationwithkeyopinionleaders(KOL)hasbecomethemostpopularmarketingstrategyf orsocialmediaplatformsandadvertisersinChina.A.错B.对8【单选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingisanexampleofacompanyusingthecontentprovidermodel?A.DellB.eBayC.NetflixD.Priceline9【单选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingisnotavariationofthee-tailerbusinessmodel?A.bricks-and-clicksB.virtualmerchantC.manufacturer-directD.marketcreator10【多选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingbelongtomajortypesofe-tailers?A.virtualmerchantB.bricks-and-clicksC.CommunityprovidersD.manufacturer-direct11【多选题】(2分)Serviceproviderstrade_________forrevenue.A.CapabilitiesB.KnowledgeC.ExpertiseD.Products12【判断题】(2分)On-demandservicecompaniesarecharacterizedbythefreesharingofresourcesbetweenth ecompanyandconsumers.A.错B.对13【单选题】(2分)A______isadigitalnetworkdesignedtocoordinatetheflowofcommunicationsamongfirmse ngagedinbusinesstogether.A.industryconsortiaB.privateindustrialnetworkC.exchangeD.e-distributor14【多选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingcompaniesareexamplesofindustryconsortia?A.GraingerB.BoschC.AribaD.Schaeffler15【多选题】(2分)WhichofthefollowingaretrueforWalmart’snetwork?A.monitorthesalesoftheirgoodsB.monitortheactualinventoryleveloftheirgoodsC.ItisoneofthelargestprivateindustrialnetworksintheworldD.Noneoftheabove第三章测试1【判断题】(2分) AroughlyequalpercentageofmenandwomenusetheInternettoday.A.对B.错2【多选题】(2分)Consumerbehavioristhestudyofhowindividuals,groups,andorganizations_______goods, services,ideas,orexperiencestosatisfytheirneedsandwants.A.BuyB.UseC.SelectD.Disposeof3【判断题】(2分)ChineseSingles’DayshoppingfestivalisasuccessfulapplicationofFOMO.A.错B.对4【多选题】(2分)Aconsumer’sbuyingbehaviorisinfluencedbyindependentdemographicvariableswhichincl ude__________.A.CulturalfactorsB.MarketingcampaignsC.SocialfactorsD.Psychologicalfactors5【单选题】(2分)______occurswhenacompetitorclicksonsearchengineresultsandads,forcingtheadvertis ertopayfortheclickeventhoughtheclickisnotjustified.A.BiddingprocessB.LinkfarmC.AdBlockingD.Clickfraud6【多选题】(2分)Howcanabusinessoptimizeitswebsite?A.updatecontentfrequentlyB.makeahighbidintheSEMauctionC.designthesitetobeeasilyrecognizedandreadbythesearchengineD.CarefullychoosekeywordsusedontheWebpages7【多选题】(2分)Both________and_________arethemainthingsthatdetermineyourperformanceintheauc tion.A.TopicofyourwebsiteB.ThemaximumCPCC.QualityscoreD.Brand8【判断题】(2分)Organicsearchresultsdependsonabiasedalgorithm.A.对B.错9【判断题】(2分)AmazonAssociatesProgramisaprivateindustrialnetworks.A.错B.对10【判断题】(2分)Contextadvertisingisbasedonapay-per-clickbasis.A.错B.对11【单选题】(2分) Advertisingnetworksallowadvertiserstargetspecificcustomersbasedontheprofileoftheau dienceviewingthecontent.Thisiscalled__________.A.contextadvertisingB.personalizedadvertisingC.viraladvertisingD.seachengineoptimization12【单选题】(2分) WhichofthefollowingisNOToneofadvertisingnetworks’functions?A.Designadvertisement.B.Handlethemoneyinvolved.C.Createanetworkofbothpublishersandadvertisersandplacerelevant/personalizedadsonpublishers.D.Collectandsharedatawithbusinesses.13【判断题】(2分) RichMediaAdsarealsotheleasteffectiveandthelowestcostformofonlinemarketing.A.对B.错14【判断题】(2分) RichMediaAdsarefarmoreeffectivethansimplebannerads.A.对B.错15【判断题】(2分)Comparedwithotheradformats,sponsorshipsarenotinanovertlycommercialmanner.A.错B.对第四章测试1【多选题】(2分)Whichofthefollowingaresocialmarketingplayers?A.TikTok(抖音)B.TaobaoC.PinterestD.RED（小红书）2【判断题】(2分) Socialmarketingstrengthensthebrandanddrivessalesbyhavingconversationwithcustome rs.A.对B.错3【多选题】(2分)Whichofthefollowingistheonlineversionofword-of-mouthadvertising?A.LocalmarketingB.SearchenginemarketingC.MobilemarketingD.Viralmarketing4【多选题】(2分)Themovie NeZha appliedthefollowingviralmarketingstrategies:______.A.ManystarsalsoforwardedpostsaboutthemovieandevencosplayedNeZha.B.therearenumerousmomentsinthemoviethatweredeeplyresonant.C.GoodqualityofthemovieledtopositivecommentsonDoubanD.createdpostsonWeibowithkeyswordssuchas“国漫崛起”，“东方神话IP”whicharousedaudience’spatriotics entiment.5【单选题】(2分)________referstoamoreorlessstablegroupoffanswhoareengagedandcommunicatingwit honeanotheroverasubstantialperiodoftime.A.fanacquisitionB.communityC.amplificationD.barndstrength6【多选题】(2分) Marketershaveanumberoftacticstobuildcommunities,includingA.insideinformationonnewproductsB.freegiftsforbringinginnewmembers.C.pricediscountforloyaltyD.guidanceandrecommendationsforcustomers7【单选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingisthemostpopularuseformobiledevices?A.performingtasks,suchasfinancesB.shoppingC.socializingD.entertainment8【单选题】(2分)Whichofthefollowingisthesecond-mostpopularmobilemarketingformat?A.mobilemessagingB.displayadvertisingC.searchengineadvertisingD.videoadvertising9【单选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingaccountsforthemostmobileadspending?A.SMStextmessagesB.searchengineadvertisingC.displayadsD.videoads10【判断题】(2分) Chinesepeopleprimarilyusemobiledevicesforshoppingorbuying.A.对B.错11【单选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingisthemostpopularmobilemarketingformat?A.displayadvertisingB.searchengineadvertisingC.videoadvertisingD.mobilemessaging12【判断题】(2分) Displayadvertisinghasthelargestsizeofmobilemarketingexpenditures.A.对B.错13【单选题】(2分)Friend-finderservices答案thequestionof__________.A.Whereareyou?Where’sthecrowd?B.Whereismychild?C.What'sthebestrestaurantintheneighborhood?D.HowamIdoinginjogging?14【判断题】(2分) Localmarketingisbasedonthemarketingtheory—demographicsegmentation.A.错B.对15【多选题】(2分) TheGPSreceiversinthesmartphonesalongwithothertechniques,meantthatauser’slocatio ncouldbefairlywellknownby_________.A.MarketersB.serviceprovidersC.telecomcarriersD.cellphonemanufacturers第五章测试1【单选题】(2分) Virtualmerchantsfacepotentiallylargecostsforallofthefollowingexcept:A.buildingandmaintainingawebsite.B.buildinganorderfulfillmentinfrastructure.C.developingabrandname.D.buildingandmaintainingphysicalstores.2【判断题】(2分)Manufacturer-directfirmsaresingle-channelmanufacturers.A.对B.错3【多选题】(2分)Manufacturer-directmodelhasfollowingadvantages___________.A.createchannelconflictsB. eliminatetheneedtosupportawholesaleandretailsalesnetwork,C.givethefirmcompletecontroloveritscustomerdatabase.D.simplifythecompany’soperations4【多选题】(2分)__________haveanetworkofphysicalstoresastheirprimaryretailchannel,butalsohaveonli neofferings.A.virtualmerchantsB.bricks-and-clickscompaniesC.manufacture-directcompaniesD.omini-channelmerchants5【多选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingaretrueforbigdataandpowerfulanalyticsprograms?A.recommendproductsbeforetheyaskB.IntendtomakeconsumersallintobigspendersC.makepossiblepredictivemarketingD.tosendpersonalizedmessagestocustomers6【判断题】(2分) StitchFixonlyreliesonbigdatatoclothingitemsandaccessoriesforcusomers.A.错B.对7【判断题】(2分) MassiveandwellservedSMEmarketisonedrivingforceofFintechinChina.A.对B.错8【判断题】(2分)Antchecklater(花呗)givescreditratingstousersbyleveragingusers’merchantdataontheplat form.A.错B.对9【判断题】(2分)Payment/remittanceshasthelargestsizeofFintechservices.A.错B.对10【判断题】(2分)Antchecklater(花呗)isavirtualcreditcardtypeofproductthatfacilitatescreditpayments.A.对B.错11【单选题】(2分)Purchaseofalltravelelementsare_________offeredbyonlinetravelsites.A.commerceB.customerserviceC.contentD.community12【多选题】(2分)Consumers’travelrequirementsinclude_________.A.paymentB.comparisonshoppingC.researchingD.planningE.reserving13【单选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingisnotamajortrendintheonlinerecruitmentservicesindustry?A.socialrecruitingB.MillennialsandGenXprimarilyusemobiledevicestosearchforjobsC.disintermediationD.useofbigdatatechnologiesinthehiringprocess14【判断题】(2分)“Passivetalent”referstopeoplewhoarenotactivelylookingforanewjob.A.错B.对15【判断题】(2分) Sharingeconomybusinessmodelhasnonegativeoutcomes.A.对B.错第六章测试1【单选题】(2分)WhatdoesALaCartemean?A.payandacquireallthecontentB.payforwhatyouuseC.allyoucaneatD. basicservicesarefreebutmoreadvancedfeaturesmustbepaidfor.2【多选题】(2分) WhichoneistrueforFreemium?A.payandacquireallthecontentB.moreadvancedfeaturesmustbepaidfor.C.payforwhatyouuseD.basicservicesareprovidedfreeofcharge3【判断题】(2分)There’snothingcontradictoryaboutallthreemodels:subscription,ALaCarteandfreemium.A.对B.错4【单选题】(2分)__________referstotheconvergenceofdesign,production,anddistributionofthecontent.A.contentconvergenceB.mediaconvergenceC.technologicalconvergenceD.industrystructureconvergence5【单选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingisnotanexampleofindustrystructureconvergence?A.Apple’sdevelopmentoftheiPadB.Amazon’screationofAmazonBooksPublishingC.AT&T’sacquisitionofTimeWarnerD.Verizon’sacquisitionofYahoo6【单选题】(2分) WhichofthefollowingtypesofonlinecontentisconsumedbythelowestpercentageofInternet users?A.e-booksB.digitalaudioC.videoD.magazines7【单选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingisnotanadvantagethatpuredigitalnewssiteshaveoverprintnewspape rs?A.Theycantakeadvantageofnewertechnologiesforproducingthenews.B.Theyhavealowercoststructure.C.Theyofferhigherqualityjournalism.D. Theycancreatenewworkflowsandbusinessprocessesthataremoretimelyandefficient.8【多选题】(2分)WhichofthefollowingaretrueforPrint-centricperiod?A.Thetechnologyplatformwasthedesktoporlaptopplatform.B.Thetoppriorityisproducingthemostengaging,continuallyupdateddigitaleditionC.TherewerenochanceforthemtohaveanyinteractionsD.Newspapersadoptedmultimediaelementssuchasvideo,addedmoreinteractiveelementslikecrosswordpuzzl esandcontests9【判断题】(2分)“Contentisking”meansowninghigh-qualitycontentprovidesagoldenopportunitytogenerate revenue.A.对B.错10【判断题】(2分)Inthetraditionalprocess,pricesdeterminedlargelybytheauthor.A.对B.错11【多选题】(2分)Amazon’sdigitalecosystemsbroughtunprecedentedchangetoonlinebookintermsof_____ ______.A.MarketingB.ContentC.PublishingD.AuthorshipE.Readership12【单选题】(2分)________wassuedbytheJusticeDepartmentforviolatingantitrustlawsinconnectionwithe-books.A.AmazonB.Barnes&NobleC.AppleD.Google13【单选题】(2分)WhichofthefollowingstatementsisnottrueaboutOTT?A.TouseOTTservices,consumersmustpurchaseabundleofchannels.B.OTTentertainmentservicesareathreattocable/satellitetelevisiondeliverysystems.C.OTTservicesincludetheabilitytodownloadcontentafterpurchaseorrental,aswellassubscriptionstreamingan d“live”TVservic es.D.OTTenablesautomaticadvertisingtransactions.14【判断题】(2分) Streaminghasreplaceddownloadingasthepreferredconsumerviewingplatformforhomeen tertainmentcontent.A.对B.错15【多选题】(2分)WhichofthefollowingaretrueforOTTadvertising?A.ItallowstheadvertiserstoreachtherightaudienceattherighttimeB.Commercialsarebasedonherlocation,interestanddemographicsC.ItputsmoreattentiononthecontentD.OTTadvertisingisoftenboughtandsoldprogrammatically第七章测试1【多选题】(2分) Socialnetworksattractpeoplewithsharedinterests,suchas________.A.sportsB.vacationsC.hobbiesD.religion2【单选题】(2分)Doubanisanexampleofa(n)________socialnetwork.A.affinity-basedB.practice-basedC.generalD.interest-based3【判断题】(2分)WithAPItechnology,Facebookopensupitsplatformandgivesotherappsorwebsitestheacce sstoitsdata.A.错B.对4【多选题】(2分)Whichofthefollowingaretrueforgeneralcommunity?A.Facebookisworld’smostpopularonlinesocialnetworkwiththelargestnumberofmonthlyactiveusers.B.Typicalexamplesincludefacebook,QQzone,Douban.C. Thebusinessmodelofgeneralcommunitiesistypicallyadvertisingsupportedbysellinggoods.D.Thepurposeofthegeneralcommunityistoattractlargeenoughaudience.5【单选题】(2分)Awebsitedesignedaroundacommunityofmemberswhoself-identifywithademographicorg eographiccategoryisclassifiedasa(n):A.sponsoredcommunity.B.interest-basedsocialnetwork.C.practicenetwork.D.affinitycommunity.6【单选题】(2分)爸妈网is____________designedtoattractparentsbyofferingdiscussionandservicesthatf ocusonEnglisheducationforearlychildhood.A.PracticenetworkB.Interest-basedsocialnetworkC.GeneralcommunityD.Affinitycommunity7【判断题】(2分)Sponsoredcommunitiesareallnon-profitonlinecommunitiesforthepurposeofpursuingorga nizationalgoals.A.对B.错8【单选题】(2分) Whichofthefollowingistheexampleofsponsoredcommunity?A.B.水木社区C.ResearchGateD.Douban9【单选题】(2分)ResearchGateisa__________forscientistsandresearcherstosharepapers,askand答案q uestions,andfindcollaborators.A.PracticenetworkB.Interest-basedsocialnetworkC.AffinitycommunityD.Generalcommunity10【多选题】(2分)Whichofthefollowingaregoalsofsponsoredcommunities?A.TodevelopinternalsocialnetworksB.ToshareknowledgeC.TosellgoodsD.Toincreasetheinformationavailabletoitsmembers11【判断题】(2分) SocialmediainfluencerisalsocalledInternetcelebrity.A.对B.错12【多选题】(2分) Inwhatwayscaninfluencersturnthetrafficintorealcash?A.showingadvertisementsB.postingviralvideosonvideohostingcommunitiesC.directingtheirfanstoonlineshopsD.receivingvirtualgifts13【多选题】(2分) WhichofthefollowingaretrueforthesocialmediainfluencerLiJiaqi(李佳琦)?A.Themediahasdubbedhimthe"LipstickKing".B.Hehasnotcooperatedwithcelebrities.C.HeisaChinesefoodandcountry-lifeblogger.D.Hegivesasubjectivecommentontheproducts,notjustbragging.Hisfansreallyappreciatehissincerity.14【判断题】(2分)Socialnetworksalsopresentenormousrisksforindividuals,communities,firms,andevenfors ocietyasawhole.A.错B.对15【多选题】(2分)WhichofthefollowingaretrueforFacebook’sCambridgeAnalyticadatascandal?A.Facebookpaidarecord-breaking5billiondollarsfine,byfarthelargestpenaltyeverimposedonacompanyforviol atingconsumers'privacyrights.B.FacebookhadeverdemandedthattheydeleteallofthedatathattheyhadobtainedinviolationofFacebook'srules.C.CambridgeAnalyticawasabletogetaccesstoinformationofasmanyas50millionpeople.D. CambridgeAnalyticaonlycollectedthepersonalinformationofpeoplewhoagreedtotakethesurvey.第八章测试1【单选题】(2分)WhatarethebenefitsforB2BE-commerceA.VisibilitycanbefullyrealizedB.IncreaseproductionflexibilityC.DecreaseproductcycletimeD.Increaseopportunitiesforcollaboratingwithsuppliersanddistributors2【多选题】(2分)WhichofthefollowingaretrueforB2BE-commerce?A.CreategreaterpricetransparencyB.LowersearchcostsforbuyersC.manyFortune1000supplychainsarerisky,vulnerable,andsociallyandenvironmentallyunsustainableD.Lowertransactioncosts3【单选题】(2分)________purchasinginvolvesthepurchaseofgoodsbasedonimmediateneedsinlargermar ketplacesthatinvolvemanysuppliers.A.VerticalB.SpotC.BulkD.Indirect4【判断题】(2分)MROgoodsarealsoknownasdirectgoods.A.错。

毕业论文文献综述毕业论文题目财务预警模型在我国上市公司的适用性比较研究文献综述题目财务危机预警模型国内外研究现状学院会计学院专业会计学姓名金琳班级08144911学号08144916指导教师王方明财务危机预警模型国内外研究现状随着我国资本市场的不断发展与完善，对上市公司财务危机及其预警的研究越来越引起重视。

财务危机及其预警研究也不再仅仅是一个学术问题，更成为影响我国上市公司及资本市场发展的重要因素。

因此对财务危机预警模型研究具有现实意义。

本文论述了国内外的研究现状，分别按照模型的发展历史进行阐述。

一、国外研究现状早在20世纪30年代西方学者就陆续开始研究企业财务危机预警问题，并提出了各种不同的财务危机预警方法和模型，一般将其分为定性分析和定量分析。

定性分析方法主要包括标准化调查法、四阶段症状分析法、流程图分析法、管理评分法等。

其中四阶段症状分析法将企业的财务危机划分为四阶段，即财务危机的潜伏期、发作期、恶化期、实现期。

由美国的Argenti(1977)提出的管理评分法也得到了较为广泛的应用，他提出财务危机成因的模型，并强调管理层在其中的作用。

其模型总分值为一百分，得分一旦大于25分，公司就有可能陷入财务危机，18-25分为灰色区域[1]。

由于定性分析主观性过强，因此国外很多学者开始转向定量分析方法和模型的研究，陆续地提出很多企业财务危机预警定量分析模型，主要有一元判定模型、多元线性判定模型、多元逻辑模型、人工神经网络模型和多元概率比回归模型。

1、一元判别法。

一元判别法又称为单变量财务危机预警模型，是用单个财务变量对企业的财务状况进行检验。

FitZpatriCk(1932)最早开展单变量财务危机预警模型研究，结果表明预测准确率最高的是净利润/股东权益和股东权益/负债两个财务指标[2]。

Beaver(1966)发现现金流量/债务总额，资产收益率、资产负债率三个财务指标的预测准确率是最高的，现金流量/债务总额在企业破产前一年预测准确率高达87%，资产收益率的准确率达到了88%，而且还发现，越临近破产日，误判的概率就越低[3]。

Summer Course2014Decision ModelingCourse Outline1InstructorGinger Y.Ke,PhDAssistant ProfessorFaculty of Business AdministrationMemorial University of NewfoundlandSt.John’s,Newfoundland and Labrador,Canada2Course OverviewDecision modeling addresses quantitative managerial problems through a paradigm of(1)prob-lem analysis and identification,(2)model formulation,(3)solution and sensitivity analysis,and (4)implementation.Focusing on thefirst three phases of the paradigm,we consider some of the elementary modeling approaches of thisfield.3References(1)B.Render,R.Stair,N.Balakishnan,and B.Smith,Managerial Decision Modeling withSpreadsheets,2nd Canadian Edition,Pearson Canada,Toronto,2010.(ISBN:978-0-13-208013-2)(2)D.M.Tulett.Memorial University of Newfoundland Business2400Decision Modeling On-Line Readings.St.John’s,2014.4Course EvaluationQuizQuiz1(Topics1,2,3,4)10%Quiz2(Topics5,6,7)10%Project20%Exam60%Total100%4.1Quiz•Two quizzes will be held during lectures(after the completion of corresponding topics).The length will be a hour.•The format of both quizzes will be True or False and Multiple Choice questions.4.2Project4.2.1PurposeThe project requires two things which are not easily integrated into the quizzes or thefinal exam.1.The data for the project needs to be obtained by the user.2.The project needs to be solved in Excel by using the Solver.4.2.2BackgroundUntil recently,John and Janet thought of food and drink in terms of meat,fried food such as onion rings,desserts,and alcohol.Then,a trip to their physician revealed that both are overweight and have dangerous levels of sugar in their blood.Their physician has advised them to stop drinking alcohol,and eliminate all added sugars,and to eat a healthy diet.They want to follow this advice,cooking at home rather than eating out in restaurants.4.2.3What You Need to Do1.Read and understand the“diet problem”(1or2examples will be discussed during lectures).2.Obtain data from a certain health related source,nutritional information from other sources(e.g.the side of a cereal box),and prices from stores.This project should include at least20food/drinks,and at least12nutritional requirements.3.Make a cost minimization model in algebraic form.4.From the algebraic model,make a spreadsheet model.5.Solve it in the Excel Solver to obtain a solution.6.Submit two things as follows.Both items must be submitted on or before5pm,Aug.28.(a)A written description(less than)of how you went about this project(citing sources whereappropriate),the mathematical solution,and the solution that you would recommend to John and Janet.This is to be submitted in person to your instructor or the TA.(b)The Excelfile,submitted through QQ.7.NOTE:The project is to be done in groups with4-5members each.Each group will makeone joint submission and all students in the group will received the same mark unless certain situations are specified by the group.Additional information about group evaluation can be found in the corresponding section below.4.2.4Project EvaluationBecause no two teams are likely to use both the same foods and the same set of nutritional requirements,it is likely that no two groups will obtain the same solution.Hence,the marker is not looking for a particularfinancialfigure,but instead is interested in knowing how you arrived at your particular solution.Obviously,we expect that everything listed in the previous section will have been done.The quality of your solution,and the clarity of your writing,including the logicalflow of the write-up will be factors in determining your mark.4.3Exam•The exam will be held during the last lecture.The length is3hours.•The exam will allow one-page double-sided(A4)cheat sheet that prepared by yourself.The preparation procedure of this sheet will be a good review of the course contents.The sheet has to be submitted together with the exam papers.•The only electronic device approved for use during an examination is a calculator.Cal-culators must adhere to the following guidelines:1)must be non-programmable,2)must not have the ability to store text,3)must not have graphing capability,and4)must be non-communicating.•A paper dictionary may be used in the exam.Electronic translators are not permitted. 5Group work evaluation•As mentioned previously,each student group will make a joint submission.Each member of the group will receive the same mark unless a peer evaluation form is submitted.•If a group member is not making an appropriate contribution,please discuss the problem with this individual as soon as plaints should be supported by the docu-mentation(e.g.written records of scheduled group meetings missed,commitments not honored).•Under such a circumstance,pleasefill a peer evaluation form that has been signed by every member of the group.This form will be provided on the QQ course group website and should be handed in no later than the original submission(the project).•If a peer evaluation form is submitted,individual grade will be assigned to each group member based on the evaluation.•If the problem cannot be resolved within the group,students should consult with the instructor.Adjustments to individuals grades may be made at the discretion of the instructor.6Course Schedule1#Date Subject Note#Date Subject Note1Aug18Topics1&26Aug25Topics6&72Aug19Topic37Aug26Topics73Aug20Topics3&48Aug27Topic8Quiz24Aug21Topics4&59Aug28Topic8Project due 5Aug22Topics5&6Quiz110Aug29-ExamList of Topics:Topic1-IntroductionTopic2-Elementary LPTopic3-LP ApplicationsTopic4-Sensitivity AnalysisTopic5-Network ModelsTopic6-IP ModelsTopic7-Goal Programming ModelsTopic8-Decision Analysis1The schedule is subjected to minor adjustments if necessary.。