一般情景预测
公司名称
华星化工代码002018分析日期
2006/04/18流通A 股2,000.00流通B 股总股本6,500.00A 股股价7.17B 股股价
Word 模板指标输出
2004A 2005A 2006E 2007E 主营收入（万元）
25,110.0035,524.0048,675.9367,905.18主营收入增长率
24.39%41.47%37.02%39.50%EBITDA （万元）
4,027.004,577.008,108.4613,348.07EBITDA 增长率
15.95%13.66%77.16%64.62%净利润（万元）
2,147.002,371.003,522.906,606.93净利润增长率
0.56%10.43%48.58%87.54%ROE
8.28%8.68%11.67%18.59%EPS （元）
0.3300.3650.542 1.016P/E
21.7119.6613.237.05P/B
1.80 1.71 1.54 1.31EV/EBITDA
9.1711.03 6.94 3.88估值结果汇总
估值方法
估值结果FCFF
20.6417.08－23.62FCFE
16.3814.90－19.09DDM
2.86 2.63－
3.29APV
17.9914.90－20.13AE
10.109.65－10.94EVA 16.3314.21－18.10
2003200420052006E EBIT
3,473.003,448.003,732.006,051.67EBITDA
3,473.004,027.004,577.008,108.46所得税率
32.01%33.84%31.63%32.73%NOPLAT
2,361.422,281.312,551.494,070.69IC
9,162.0016,252.0031,033.0039,678.80Ve
32,265.0046,605.0046,605.0046,605.00Vd
2,700.004,670.0011,771.0020,489.52WACC
11.55%11.43%10.50%9.63%EV 32,649.0036,937.0050,467.0056,257.40
业绩表现2003200420052006E
估 值 区 间0.00 5.0010.0015.0020.0025.00
FCFF
FCFE
DDM
APV
AE
EVA
A股计算）
0.00
流通H 股0.000.00H 股股价0.00
2008E
74,220.52
9.30%
17,156.30
28.53%
9,175.16
38.87%
21.35%
1.412
5.08
1.08
2.45
6.544.190.665.231.293.89
2007E
2008E 10,826.01
14,371.6013,348.07
17,156.3032.73%
32.73%7,282.18
9,667.1540,557.76
38,271.8646,605.00
46,605.0020,294.54
11,977.949.65%
10.48%51,781.2542,058.62
2007E 2008E
贴现率±1%，长期增长率±1%敏感度分析区间
贴现率±1%，长期增长率±1%
贴现率±1%，长期增长率±1%
贴现率±1%，长期增长率±1%
贴现率±1%，长期增长率±1%
贴现率±1%，长期增长率±1%
0.00 5.0010.0015.0020.0025.00FCFF
FCFE
DDM
APV
AE
EVA
资本变化