清洁，安全并且自动驾驶
The future of the car
汽车之未来
Clean, safe and it drives itself
清洁，安全并且自动驾驶
Cars have already changed the way we live. They are likely to do so again 汽车已经改变了我们的生活方式，很可能再改变一次
SOME inventions, like some species, seem to make periodic leaps in progress. The car is one of them. Twenty-five years elapsed between Karl Benz beginning small-scale production of his original Motorwagen and the breakthrough, by Henry Ford and his engineers in 1913, that turned the car into the ubiquitous, mass-market item that has defined the modern urban landscape. By putting production of the Model T on moving assembly lines set into the floor of his factory in Detroit, Ford drastically cut the time needed to build it, and hence its cost. Thus began a revolution in personal mobility. Almost a billion cars now roll along the world?s highways.
有些发明，就像有些物种一样，似乎周期性地会发生飞跃。汽车就是其中之一。从卡尔?本茨开始小规模制造他发明的“机械车”起，25年之后，亨利?福特和他的工程师们在1913年实现了突破，将汽车变成了一种无所不在，销量巨大，并且界定了现代城市景观的商品。在底特律的福特工厂，通过将T型汽车在流水线上进行生产，汽车组装时间大幅减少，成本随之降低，个人移动能力的革命也从此开始。如今，全世界的公路上奔驰着约10亿辆汽车。Today the car seems poised for another burst of evolution. One way in which it is changing relates to its emissions. As emerging markets grow richer, legions of new consumers are clamouring for their first set of wheels. For the whole world to catch up with American levels of car ownership, the global fleet would have to quadruple. Even a fraction of that growth would present fearsome challenges, from congestion and the price of fuel to pollution and global warming.
今天，汽车似乎已经在为下一波进化的到来做准备。改变之一与汽车排放有关。随着新兴市场越来越富有，新的消费大军嚷嚷着要买他们的第一辆车。在汽车保有量上如果全球都达到美国的水平，总量上还要翻两番。哪怕是这一增加的零头，都意味着可怕的挑战，从拥堵和油价，到污染和全球变暖。
Yet, as our special report this week argues, stricter regulations and smarter technology are making cars cleaner, more fuel-efficient and safer than ever before. China, its cities choked in smog, is following Europe in imposing curbs on emissions of noxious nitrogen oxides and fine soot particles. Regulators in most big car markets are demanding deep cuts in the carbon dioxide emitted from car exhausts. And carmakers are being remarkably inventive in finding ways to comply.
然而正如本周特别报道所述，更加严格的法规和更智能的技术，使得汽车前所未有地更加清洁、省油和安全。饱受烟雾困扰的中国，正效仿欧洲对有害的氮氧化物与微小颗粒排放进行控制。在主要的汽车销售大国里，立法者要求大幅削减汽车尾气中的二氧化碳，而汽车制造商们在设法满足法规要求方面，也相当具有创造性。
Granted, battery-powered cars have disappointed. They remain expensive, lack range and
are sometimes dirtier than they look—for example, if they run on electricity from coal-fired power stations. But car companies are investing heavily in other clean technologies. Future motorists will have a widening choice of super-efficient petrol and diesel cars, hybrids (which switch between batteries and an internal-combustion engine) and models that run on natural gas or hydrogen. As for the purely electric car, its time will doubtless come.
的确，电池驱动汽车令人不甚满意，昂贵，续航短，有时还比看起来要脏――比如说它运行所用的电力来自于燃煤电厂的话。但汽车厂商正投入巨资用于开发其它清洁技术。未来轮上一族有更大的选择余地：超能效汽油与柴油车，混动车（可在电池和内燃机之间切换），还有使用天然气或氢气的车型。至于纯电动汽车，它的时代无疑终将到来。
Towards the driverless, near-crashless car
目标无人驾驶，不会撞车
Meanwhile, a variety of “driver assistance” te chnologies are appearing on new cars, which will not only take a lot of the stress out of driving in traffic but also prevent many accidents. More and more new cars can reverse-park, read traffic signs, maintain a safe distance in steady traffic and brake automatically to avoid crashes. Some carmakers are promising technology that detects pedestrians and cyclists, again overruling the driver and stopping the vehicle before it hits them. A number of firms, including Google, are busy trying to take driver assistance to its logical conclusion by creating cars that drive themselves to a chosen destination without a human at the controls. This is where it gets exciting.
与此同时，在新车上正涌现出各种“辅助驾驶”技术，它们既可减轻堵车时的许多压力，也可以避免许多事故。越来越多的新车可以自动泊车，读取路牌，在稳定的车流中保持安全距离，还可以自动刹车以避免事故。有些车商承诺开发一项技术可以探测行人与骑车人，在碰撞发生前否定驾车人的意图并将车停住。包括Google在内的许多公司，正努力使辅助驾驶顺理成章地转变为无人驾驶，让车辆自动行驶到指定地点而无需人工控制。这很令人激动。Sergey Brin, a co-founder of Google, predicts that driverless cars will be ready for sale to customers within five years. That may be optimistic, but the prototypes that Google already uses to ferry its staff (and a recent visitor from The Economist) along Californian freeways are impressive. Google is seeking to offer the world a driverless car built from scratch, but it is more likely to evolve, and be accepted by drivers, in stages.
Google的联合创始人谢尔盖?布林预言五年内消费者将可以购买无人驾驶汽车。这也许乐观了一点，但Google已经用于在加州高速公路上接送员工（最近还有一位来自《经济学人》的客人）的原型车让人印象深刻。Google想为世界直接提供一辆无人驾驶汽车，但更可能是逐步发展，慢慢为驾车人所接受。
As sensors and assisted-driving software demonstrate their ability to cut accidents, regulators will move to make them compulsory for all new cars. Insurers are already pressing motorists to accept black boxes that measure how carefully they drive: these will provide a mass of data which is likely to show that putting the car on autopilot is often safer than driving it. Computers never drive drunk or while texting.
传感器和辅助驾驶软件已经证明它们有助于减少事故，立法者也会让所有新车强制安装这些设备。保险商已经在施压让驾车人接受黑匣子－－可以测量驾驶的谨慎程度：这将提供大量数据用于证明汽车自动巡航常常比有人驾驶更安全。电脑绝不会酒后驾驶，或是一边开车一边发短信。
If and when cars go completely driverless—for those who want this—the benefits will be enormous. Google gave a taste by putting a blind man in a prototype and filming him being
driven off to buy takeaway tacos. Huge numbers of elderly and disabled people could regain their personal mobility. The young will not have to pay crippling motor insurance, because their reckless hands and feet will no longer touch the wheel or the accelerator. The colossal toll of deaths and injuries from road accidents—1.2m killed a year worldwide, and 2m hospital visits a year in America alone—should tumble down, along with the costs to health systems and insurers.
如果汽车最终无人驾驶――对于乐见其成的人来说――好处将是巨大的。Google尝试过让盲人乘坐它的原型车，并拍摄他如何把车“开走”去买外带玉米饼的。无数的老年人和残疾人士可以从此重新获得个人移动能力。年轻人也不用再买要命的车险，因为他们冒失的手脚不会再碰方向盘或是油门。道路事故伤亡的巨大数字――全球每年死亡120万，单是美国每年就有200万就医――将不复存在，还有医疗和保险的支出。
Driverless cars should also ease congestion and save fuel. Computers brake faster than humans. And they can sense when cars ahead of them are braking. So driverless cars will be able to drive much closer to each other than humans safely can. On motorways they could form fuel-efficient “road trains”, gliding along in the slipstream of the vehicle in front. People who commute by car will gain hours each day to work, rest or read a newspaper. 无人驾驶也将缓解拥堵和节省燃油。电脑刹车比人更快，还能感知前方的车正在刹车。因此无人驾驶汽车在保证安全的前提下可以比有人驾驶的车开得更近。在高速上，它们可以组成省油的“公路火车”，沿着前方车辆的气流滑行。开车上下班的人们将每天节省数小时来工作，休息或看报。
Roadblocks ahead
前方的困难
Some carmakers think this vision of the future is (as Henry Ford once said of history) bunk. People will be too terrified to hurtle down the motorway in a vehicle they do not control: computers crash, don?t they? Carmakers whose self-driving technology is implicated in accidents might face ruinously expensive lawsuits, and be put off continuing to develop it. 有些车商认为这种对未来的憧憬是（正如亨利?福特以前曾说过）不切实际的。人们会害怕，不敢坐着他们所不能控制的汽车开上高速公路：电脑会死机，对不？如果车商的自动驾驶软件卷入事故，那将可能面临贵到破产的诉讼费用，也就没有能力继续开发。
Yet many people already travel, unwittingly, on planes and trains that no longer need human drivers. As with those technologies, the shift towards driverless cars is taking place gradually. The cars? software will learn the tricks that humans use to avoid hazards: for example, braking when a ball bounces into the road, because a child may be chasing it. Google?s self-driving cars have already clocked up over 700,000km, more than many humans ever drive; and everything they learn will become available to every other car using the software. As for the liability issue, the law should be changed to make sure that when cases arise, the courts take into account the overall safety benefits of self-driving technology.
然而许多人已经在毫不知情的情况下乘坐无需人工操纵的飞机和火车旅行了。在这些技术的帮助下，向无人驾驶的转变正在逐步实现。汽车软件将学会人避免危险的技巧：比如，路上飞来一只球时人会刹车，因为可能会有孩子追过来。Google的自动驾驶汽车已经累计行驶超过70万公里，许多人永远都不可能开这么远。Google汽车所学到的一切都将运用到使用此软件的其它汽车上。对于无人驾驶的可靠性问题，应当修改法律，使得发生事故时法庭会对自动驾驶技术在总体上更安全加以考虑。
If the notion that the driverless car is round the corner sounds far-fetched, remember that TV and heavier-than-air flying machines once did, too. One day people may wonder why earlier generations ever entrusted machines as dangerous as cars to operators as fallible as humans.
如果说无人驾驶汽车时代即将到来的说法还不靠谱，那想想电视和比空气重的飞行器也曾经不靠谱。也许有一天人们会思考，为什么先人们会把像汽车一样危险的机器交给像人一样不可靠的操作员来操作。
Mobile telecoms in America
美国移动通信行业
DISHing out the dosh
大把洒钱
Mega-bids are set to transform America’s wireless industry
巨额收购将改变美国移动通信行业的格局
Apr 20th 2013 | SAN FRANCISCO |From the print edition
BANKERS involved in mergers and acquisitions have been checking their phones more often than text-crazy teenagers recently, to keep up with a flurry of offers for American mobile-phone companies. On April 15th DISH Network, a satellite-TV operator, became the latest bidder to enter the fray when it launched a $25.5 billion offer for Sprint Nextel, the country?s third-largest wireless firm.
从事并购业务的银行家们最近翻看手机的次数比那些疯狂发送短信的年轻人还要频繁，他们希望赶上这场收购美国移动电话运营商的热潮。4月15日，卫星电视运营商DISH Network 最新加入这场角逐，该公司准备豪掷255亿美元竞购美国第三大移动运营商Sprint Nextel。
DISH is not the only suitor for Sprint. Last October Japan?s SoftBank offered to buy 70% of the wireless operator for just over $20 billion; and this week it boasted that its agreed deal promised “superior” benefits to DISH?s unsolicited one. Sprint, in turn, is seeking to take full control of Clearwire, another wireless company of which it already owns half. And T-Mobile USA, the fourth-biggest mobile operator, is pushing ahead with a plan to merge with the fifth-largest, MetroPCS.
对Sprint情有独钟的不只有DISH。去年10月，日本软银以刚过200亿美元的报价竞购这家移动运营商的七成股权；同时，软银在本周宣称，它与Sprint已达成的协议比DISH尚未达成的协议更具“优势”。另一方面，Sprint也正试图全面控制另一家移动运营商Clearwire，目前，它已经拥有该公司一半的股权。此外，美国第四大移动运营商T-mobile正在努力推进一项与第五大运营商MetroPCS合并的计划。
The scale of the bidding is breathtaking. According to Dealogic, a data provider, wireless deals worth $49 billion have already been announced in America this year, compared with $53 billion-worth of transactions for the whole of 2012. And more telephone-number-sized offers could be on the way. What is driving this dealmaking? And who is likely to come out on top when the dust settles?
报价的规模令人咋舌。数据提供商Dealogic表示，今年美国移动通信行业已宣布的交易价值就达490亿美元，而2012年全年的交易价值为530亿美元。而且，和手机号码长度相当的报价可能还会纷纷涌现。这些交易背后的驱动力是什么？尘埃落定之时，究竟哪一家有希望获得最终的胜利？
The answer to the first of those questions is that the bids are aimed at helping America?s mobile smaller fry compete more effectively with Verizon Wireless and AT&T, the behemoths that together serve about 70% of the country?s wireless subscribers. As the chart below shows, the two titans? investment in their wireless networks and in the spectrum needed to carry voice and data traffic over them has dwarfed that of their rivals. “It?s a two-plus-two market in America now,” explains Rajeev Chand of Rutberg & Company, an investment bank, “and the two smaller guys have to figure out how best to compete and survive.”
第一个问题的答案是：这些并购交易目的是帮助美国实力较弱的移动运营商更有效地与Verizon和AT&T开展竞争，因为这两个通信巨头的服务总共覆盖了美国大概70%的移动用户。如下图所示，两大巨头在移动网络以及网络承载话音和数据所需通信频段上的投资力度令竞争对手相形见绌。来自投资银行Rutberg & Company的Rajeev Chand解释说：“美国现在是一个…2+2?的市场，两个小兄弟必须要找到事关竞争与生存的最佳途径。”
When it comes to spectrum, DISH has a clear edge over its rival for Sprint?s affections. The
satellite-TV firm, whose boss, Charlie Ergen, is a former professional gambler, has cleverly snapped up billions of dollars? worth of airwaves which it has permission to convert to wireless use. And in January it launched an unsolicited offer of its own for Clearwire. Mr Ergen has made it clear that DISH does not want to build its own cellular network, but would rather find a partner with an existing one.
说到通信频段问题，Dish对Sprint的热情要明显高于竞争对手。这家卫星电视公司的老板Charlie Ergen曾经是一个职业赌徒。如今，该公司已巧妙地抢拍了价值数十亿美元的移动通信频段，并可以随时将其转化到移动应用上。今年一月，Dish对Clearwire开出了自报价格。Ergen已明确表示，Dish不想自建蜂窝网络，而是希望寻找到拥有现成网络的合作伙伴。SoftBank cannot offer Sprint airwaves in America, but it can bring plenty of cash to the table thanks to Japan?s near-zero interest rates. It also brings the experience of Masayoshi Son, the firm?s founder and boss, who snapped up several companies to turn SoftBank Mobile into an effective competitor against two larger rivals in the Japanese market. SoftBank claims it is on track to close its deal with Sprint on July 1st. But Mr Son may have to raise his bid if he is to keep Spr int?s shareholders on board now that Mr Ergen has joined the game.
在美国，软银虽然不能够直接向Sprint提供移动通信频段，但凭借日本趋近于零的利率水平，它可以带来充足的现金；同时，还能带来软银创始人兼总裁孙正义的管理经验。孙正义曾经收购了一大批公司，最终把软银移动发展成一家可以抗衡日本通信行业两家更大运营商的竞争者。软银声称其仍计划于7月1日完成对Sprint的收购。但是，既然Ergen现在已加入了这场竞争，如果孙正义想赢得Sprint董事会的通过，可能必须要提高报价才行。
T-Mobile?s owner, Deutsche Telekom, has already had to sweeten its offer for MetroPCS after facing pressure from shareholders in the American firm who felt the original terms would have left the combined company with too heavy a debt burden. On April 15th MetroPCS?s board approved the revised proposals, which will be put to shareholders on April 24th. If they are accepted the merged firm will have debt of $11.2 billion rather than $15 billion, and pay a lower interest rate than originally planned, giving it more financial flexibility to buy radio spectrum and build up its wireless network.
MetroPCS的股东认为，原始条款会给合并后的公司留下过重的债务负担。因此，面对这家美国公司股东的压力，T-mobile的所有者德国电信被迫提高了对其报价。4月15日，MetroPCS董事会通过了修改后的提案，并将于4月24日进行股东表决。如果该提案获得通过，合并后公司的债务将由150亿美元降至112亿美元，而且支付的利率也会比原计划低，从而为其购买移动通信频段并建设自己的移动网络提供了更大的财务灵活性。Regulators seem keen to give Sprint and T-Mobile a helping hand when it comes to spectrum. In a recent submission to America?s Federal Communications Commission (FCC), which oversees the telecoms industry, the Department of Justice urged it to make sure that the smaller wireless operators get a share of low-frequency bands in a future auction of spectrum given up by television stations. Both Sprint and T-Mobile are short of such spectrum, whose ability to carry signals over long distances and into buildings makes it especially valuable.
谈到通信频段问题，监管机构似乎也愿意向Sprint和T-mobile施以援手。最近，美国司法部向负责通信行业监管的联邦通信委员会（FCC）递交一份建议书，敦促其今后在对电视台释放的通信频段进行拍卖时，应确保规模较小的移动运营商能够获得一定份额的低频段频谱。Sprint和T-mobile均缺少这种低频段频谱，而该频谱资源的特殊价值就在于能够实现
信号远距离传输，并使其进入建筑物内部。
But even if they get such help, the smaller firms will still find it tough to prosper. Mike Garstka of Bain & Company, a consulting firm, says that in most mobile markets around the world the two biggest operators make virtually all of the profit, leaving smaller rivals battling to survive. This has certainly been the case in Europe, where a long tail of smaller operators have struggled to make money in an intensely competitive market.
但是，即便得到这样的帮助，规模较小的运营商发展壮大之路仍将步履艰难。美国贝恩咨询公司的Mike Garstka表示，全球绝大多数移动通信市场的前两大运营商几乎攫取了全部的利润，而规模较小的竞争对手只得在竞争中求生存。过去，欧洲也是这种情况，规模较小的“长尾”1运营商曾经在欧洲激烈的市场竞争中苦苦挣扎。
So if they are ultimately to stay in business, Sprint and T-Mobile may end up having to join forces at some point. Some analysts speculate that if Mr Ergen fails in his bid for Sprint, he could pounce on the newly merged T-Mobile instead. Given his penchant for dealmaking, he could then try to engineer a blockbuster merger with Sprint—a move that would inevitably attract scrutiny from regulators.
因此，Sprint和T-mobile若要在行业竞争中得以生存，最终他们可能必须要采取某种程度的联合策略。一些分析人士推测，如果Ergen未能实现对Sprint的收购，他会不失时机地将目光转向新合并的T-mobile。因为他对并购交易乐此不疲，因此，他会竭尽全力与Sprint 就此达成协议——此举必将引来监管机构的严格审查。
Antitrust watchdogs rightly blocked AT&T?s attempt to swallow Sprint back in 2011. But both it and Verizon Wireless are unlikely to stand by idly while their competitors beef themselves up.
尽管2011年，反垄断监管机构曾竭力阻止AT&T试图吞并Sprint的努力，但AT&T和Verizon Wireless都不可能眼看着自己的竞争对手发展壮大。
AT&T could bid for a satellite operator or other firm that brings it more spectrum. Verizon Wireless is already trying to persuade Clearwire to part with some of its airwaves. Verizon Communications, which owns a 55% stake in Verizon Wireless, is also keen to buy the remaining 45%, held by Britain?s Vodafone, to give the firm more operating flexibility. Any such deal would involve Croesus-like sums of money. Bankers in the telecoms-mergers business should make sure they keep their phones charged.
AT&T可能会收购一家卫星通信运营商或者其他类型的能带给它更多频谱资源的公司。Verizon Wireless正在试图说服Clearwire出售其部分通信频段。拥有Verizon Wireless 55%股份的Verizon Communications还希望收购由英国沃达丰所持有的剩余45%股份，从而获得更多的经营自主权。因为每一笔此类交易均将涉及数额巨大的资金，所以，那些从事通信并购业务的银行家们可要保证自己的手机充足电哟。
The death of inflation
通货膨胀的终结
Central banks in the rich world may have been too successful in subduing price pressures
发达国家的中央银行抑制价格举动或许用力过猛。
Apr 13th 2013 |From the print edition
2013年04月13日| 印刷版
IT TOOK an iron will (and a handbag) to beat the inflation of the 1970s. Under Margaret Thatcher the British government squeezed the economy with high interest rates until the beast submitted. The Federal Reserve, then led by Paul Volcker, followed suit. Such displays of fortitude convinced markets that governments were serious about keeping inflation low. Expectations of future price increases converged around central-bank targets, touching off an era of long expansions and mild recessions. Yet relative price stability may now be adding to the rich world?s economic woes.
钢铁般的意志(以及一只手提袋)成功抑制了上世纪70年代的通货膨胀。玛格丽特?撒切尔治下的英国政府采用高利率的经济政策压低经济增长率，直至通胀巨兽束手就擒。其时由保罗?沃克尔主导的美国联邦储蓄银行在抑制通胀方面的政策紧随其后。政府在此期间所展现的勇气和决断使市场确信政府会豪不手软地压低通货膨胀率。未来价格增幅预期唯央行通胀目标是瞻，由此触发了一个经济长期扩张但偶有温和衰退的时代。但是，相对的价格稳定性目前对于发达国家的经济状况来说不啻于一个困境。
Deep recessions like the recent global contraction would normally be expected to send inflation tumbling. Workless labourers ought to reduce wage demands to find employment; firms with unsold goods should slash prices to clear inventories. There was every reason to expect that inflation would go to zero or even enter negative territory in recent years. In April 2009 the International Monetary Fund forecast that inflation in that year would be -0.2% for advanced economies. Instead it has barely budged across the latest business cycle (see left-hand chart).
人们通常认为像最近全球经济收缩此类的严重衰退会压低通货膨胀率。失业的劳动者为了寻求就业机会理应会降低薪资要求；有滞销产品的企业应该降低商品价格清理库存。近些年来，人们有充分的理由来预计通货膨胀率会降至零或者负值以下。2009年4月，国际货币基金组织预先通报了发达经济体当年通货膨胀率将会是-0.2%。相反，当年的通货膨胀率几乎毫不为最近的商业周期所动(见右表)。
Deflation has been the “dog that didn?t bark”, notes the IMF in its new “World Economic Outlook”. When America?s unemployment rate jumped between 1980 and 1982, by 4.5 percentage points to 10.8%, core inflation plummeted from 12.0% to 4.5%. The jobless rate in America rose even more steeply between 2007 and 2009 but inflation dropped by less than one percentage point, from about 2.4% to 1.7%. Where inflation rates rose above central bankers? targets, as in Britain, or below them, as in Japan, expectations of future rates still stayed close to the targets.
国际货币基金组织在其最新发布的《世界经济展望》中强调，通货紧缩一直以来都是“一只不叫的狗”。1980年至1982年间，美国失业率跃升了4.5的百分点高达10.8%，而核心通货膨胀率从12.0%降至4.5%。2007至2009年间，美国失业率升幅更加剧烈，可是通货膨胀率却下降了不到1个百分点，从2.4%降至1.7%。有些国家通货膨胀率高于（以英国为例）或低于（以日本为例）央行目标通胀值，可通货膨胀率预期却始终接近于央行的目标值。Some economists argue that stable inflation is a result of some big changes in the labour market. Wages and prices did not fall by much in recent years because jobless workers exited the labour force for good—a result of over-generous welfare benefits and obsolete skills. Such people do not compete with others for jobs and therefore cannot drag down inflation.
一些经济学家认为稳定的通货膨胀率是劳动力市场发生的巨变所致。近些年来，在过度慷慨的社会福利和劳动技能过时的情况下，失业劳动力永久退出劳动力市场，因此薪资水平和商品价格下降幅度不大。退出劳动力市场的工人不再与其他人竞争工作机会，因此他们不可能对降低通货膨胀率产生任何影响。
Another view is that stability reflects central banks? credibility. When central banks whipped inflation in the early 1980s and adopted low targets for it, they firmly anchored beliefs about future growth in prices and wages. This credibility is self-reinforcing. Workers who expect prices to rise only slowly tend not to push as hard for higher wages. That helps firms to keep costs and prices down. When the crisis struck, this process also helped avert deflation. If prices are not expected to drop, workers are less likely to accept wage cuts. Anticipating stable wage demands, employers are more reluctant to cut prices.
另一个观点是通货膨胀率所展现出的稳定性反映了各国央行的可信度。上世纪80年代后期，各国央行大力遏制通货膨胀并为其设定了较低的目标值，他们对未来商品价格和薪资水平可能会出现的增幅深信不疑。而这种可信度不断在自我强化。期望商品价格缓慢上升的劳动者往往不会强烈要求提高薪资。这有助于企业保持低水平的成本和价格。当经济危机来袭时，这一机制同样也有助于抑制通货紧缩。如果商品价格预期会降低，那么劳动者就不太可能会接受薪资的削减。稳定的薪资要求在雇主的预期之内，那么他们就更不会愿意降低商品的价格。
This second story seems a better fit for the data, argues the IMF. Since 1990 expected rates of inflation have inched ever closer to central-bank targets. And over the same period short-term gaps between actual inflation and the official target had ever weaker effects on people?s expectations. Markets seem to trust centra l banks to return inflation to target, and that trust itself helps keep it in line (though the dispersion in expected inflation rates seems to have widened lately).
国际货币基金组织认为，第二个理由似乎更能与数据相契合。自1990年以来,通货膨胀率预期一直逐步向央行所设定的目标值靠拢。而同期实际通货膨胀率和官方目标之间的短期差距对人们预期的影响越来越微弱。市场似乎相信央行能够将通货膨胀率控制在目标值内，而且信任本身有助于通货膨率不越雷池一步（虽然预期通货膨胀率离散值似乎近来在扩大。）As inflation has become more anchored, its links with other economic indicators have weakened. In a study of 21 rich countries since the 1960s, the IMF shows that changes in unemployment now influence inflation much less than in the past (see right-hand chart). Without the breakdown in this relationship, America?s economy would have faced deflation rates approaching 3% in the wake of the recent recession, the IMF notes.
随着通货膨胀率变得愈来愈稳固，这一指标与其它经济指标之间的联系也愈来愈弱。国际货币基金组织研究了自上世纪60年代以来21个发达国家的经济状况，该研究表明：就目前而言，失业率的变动对通货膨胀率的影响远不如从前（见右表）。国际货币基金组织强调若是其间的关联性保持不变，那么美国经济在最近一次经济衰退之初的通货紧缩率将会接近3%的水平。
That is small comfort to inflation hawks, who fear that expectations may well prove less anchored during the next boom. After all, firms could easily be more enthusiastic about raising prices than cutting them. Yet experience before the financial crisis suggests that boom times may not be so different. In the decade before the crisis unemployment in Britain, Ir eland and Spain dipped below its estimated “natural rate” (the lowest sustainable rate) for years at a time. Actual inflation and expectations of it hardly budged.
对于担忧通货膨胀率预期值在下次经济繁荣时期无法表现出强劲稳定性的通胀鹰派来说，这足以让他们稍感宽慰。毕竟，企业更热衷于提高而不是降低商品价格。但是金融危机前的经验表明经济繁荣时期的情况或许没有太大的差别。金融危机前的10年里，英国、爱尔兰和西班牙曾出现过失业率连续几年跌破其估计的“自然率”（最低可持续发展率）的情况。而实际通货膨胀率和预期值几乎毫不受此影响。
What could cause inflation expectations to break free again, as in the 1970s? Contrasting the experience of the American and German economies, the IMF reckons that central-bank independence makes all the difference. Both the Federal Reserve and the Bundesbank mistakenly saw 1970s-era unemployment as mostly temporary. But the Bundesbank managed to resist its government?s calls for looser monetary policy. The Fed, under i ts then chairman, Arthur Burns, was more responsive to Richard Nixon?s demands. Only in the late 1970s, when public opinion no longer saw unemployment but inflation as the chief economic evil, was it politically possible to give the Fed licence to stamp out inflation.
是什么因素导致了上世纪70年代通货膨胀率预期值免受其他经济指标的影响呢？国际货币基金组织对比了美国和德国经济发展的经验，据此得出结论认为央行的独立性决定了一切。美联储和德国联邦银行均错误的认为70年代出现的失业不过是昙花一现。但是德国联邦银行成功地顶住了政府要求他们进一步放松货币政策的压力。在当时的美联储主席阿瑟?伯恩斯（Arthur Burns）的领导下，美联储积极地响应了时任美国总统理查德?尼克松（Richard Nixon）的要求。仅仅在70年代后期，当舆论认为经济的罪魁祸首主要是通货膨胀而不是失业之后，美联储才能政治层面获得抑制通货膨胀率的许可。
Missing the target
渐渐迷失目标
Low inflation may be central bankers? proudest achievement but it comes with its own set of economic risks, argues the IMF. The economic stability of the pre-crisis era may have fuelled the excess borrowing that led to the financial crisis. And a 2012 IMF working paper suggests that reining in inflation can increase income inequality by compressing wages while allowing asset prices to soar.
国际货币基金组织认为低通货膨胀率或许是央行高管最引以为傲的成就，但低通胀率本身却存在诸多经济风险。前金融危机时代经济情况所表现出来的稳定性或许给信贷泛滥起到了火上浇油的效果，而过渡举债正是金融危机的导火索。国际货币基金组织在2012年发布的一份工作报告中指出，压低薪资水平的同时却允许资产价格飙升，通过这种手段来抑制通货膨胀会扩大收入不公的差距。
More worryingly, the weakening link between inflation and unemployment could breed complacency about rising joblessness. Central bankers weaned on tales from the 1930s and 1980s, when soaring unemployment produced tumbling inflation, may have underestimated recent economic troubles because of stable inflation. An outbreak of deflation might have prompted them to act sooner and even more resolutely to battle the recession. Central banks are victims of their own success. With inflation no longer a reliable indicator of demand, they must look elsewhere to keep economies from running hot or cold. 更令人担忧的是，通货膨胀率和失业率之间日益脆弱的关联性可能会令人对不断上升的失业率毫无警觉，进而无动于衷。当不断上升的失业率导致通货膨胀率不断波动的时候，对上世纪30年和80年发生的一切熟稔于胸各国央行高管们或许因为稳定的通货膨胀率而低估了近来出现的经济问题。突然爆发的通货紧缩或许会促使他们迅速行动，甚至会迫使他们拿出最具成效的解决之法来应对经济衰退。央行为其成功所累。由于通货膨涨率不再是一个可靠
的需求反映指标，各国央行必须另寻它途来防止经济运行过热或是过冷。
Convalescent plasma and artificial antibodies:Survivors as saviours 恢复期血浆和人工抗体：康复者成为了人们的救星 During the flu pandemic of1918-19doctors at an American naval hospital developed a treatment which,according to the American Journal of Public Health,had“a decided influence in shortening the course of the disease and in lowering the mortality”. 据《美国公共卫生杂志》报道称，在1918年至1919年的流感大流行期间，美国一家海军医院的医生研发了一种能够“有效缩短疾病病程并降低患者死亡率”的治疗方法。It involved clotting and then centrifuging blood from people who had got over the disease so as to separate out the antibodies it contained,then giving those antibodies to patients in dire need. 该方法是对处于恢复期的病人的血液进行采集和离心，进而分离出含有抗体的血浆，然后将其用于那些亟待治疗的患者。 Since then antibody-rich“convalescent plasma”(CP)has been used as a treatment for various diseases,including SARS and the pandemic strains of H1N1and H5N1influenza.Now covid-19has joined the list. 从那时起，富含抗体的“恢复期血浆”被广泛用于治疗包括SARS以及H1N1和H5N1流感大流行在内的各种疾病。如今，新冠肺炎也也位列其中。 A recent study in Wuhan found that severely ill covid-19patients treated with CP did significantly better than patients matched with them by age, gender and severity of infection had done earlier in the epidemic. 最近在武汉进行的一项研究发现，相比疫情早期那些年龄、性别和病情相当的新冠肺炎患者，接受恢复期血浆治疗的重症患者的治疗效果明显要好一些。
Leopard seals share their suppers 豹海豹会分享它们的晚餐 Bad news if you are a penguin 假如你是一只企鹅，这真是个坏消息 Leopard seals resemble their terrestrial namesakes in two ways.They have polka-dot pelts.And they are powerful,generally solitary carnivores that are quite capable of killing a human being if they so choose—as has indeed happened once,in2003,when a British marine biologist was the victim. 豹海豹与生活在陆地上的同名动物（豹）有着两点相似之处。其一，它们的皮毛上都有着圆点花纹。其二，它们都是强大的独栖性食肉动物，只要它们愿意，是完全有能力杀死一个人的——正如2003年真实发生的那样，当时一位英国海洋生物学家就成了受害者。 Curiously,though,there have also been reports of leopard seals behaving in a friendly manner towards people—apparently trying to present gifts,in the form of prey,to divers. 但奇怪的是，也有报道称豹海豹对人类表现得十分友好——它们很显然把猎物作为礼物赠送给了潜水员。 Until now,there has been no explanation for this philanthropy.But work just published in Polar Biology by James Robbins of Plymouth University, in Britain,suggests that what the seals are actually looking for is a dining partner.
The Brain Activity Map 绘制大脑活动地图 Hard cell 棘手的细胞 An ambitious project to map the brain is in the works. Possibly too ambitious 一个绘制大脑活动地图的宏伟计划正在准备当中，或许有些太宏伟了 NEWS of what protagonists hope will be America’s next big science project continues to dribble out. 有关其发起人心中下一个科学大工程的新闻报道层出不穷。 A leak to the New York Times, published on February 17th, let the cat out of the bag, with a report that Barack Obama’s administration is thinking of sponsoring what will be known as the Brain Activity Map. 2月17日，《纽约时报》刊登的一位线人报告终于泄露了秘密，报告称奥巴马政府正在考虑赞助将被称为“大脑活动地图”的计划。 And on March 7th several of those protagonists published a manifesto for the project in Science. 3月7日，部分发起人在《科学》杂志上发表声明证实了这一计划。 The purpose of BAM is to change the scale at which the brain is understood. “大脑活动地图”计划的目标是改变人们在认知大脑时采用的度量方法。 At the moment, neuroscience operates at two disconnected levels. 眼下，神经学的研究处在两个断开的层次。 The higher one, where the dimensions of features are measured in centimetres, has many techniques at its disposal, notably functional magnetic-res onance imaging, which measures changes in tissues’ fuel consumption. 在相对宏观的层次当中各个特征的规模用厘米来衡量，有很多技术可以使用，尤其是用来测量组织中能量消耗变动情况的核磁共振成像技术。 This lets researchers see which bits of the brain are active in particular tasks—as long as those tasks can be performed by a person lying down inside a scanner. 该技术可使研究人员找出在完成具体的任务时，大脑的哪些部分处于活跃状态。At the other end of the scale, where features are measured in microns, lots of research has been done on how individual nerve cells work, how messages are sent from one to another, and how the connections between cells strengthen and weaken as memories are formed. 而另一个度量的层次则要求用微米来测量各种特征，这一层次的研究很多都是关于单个神经细胞是如何工作的、信息在神经细胞之间是如何传递的以及当产生记忆的时候神经细胞之间的联系是如何得到加强和减弱的。 Between these two, though, all is darkness. 然而，位于这两个层次之间的研究还处于一片漆黑当中。 It is like trying to navigate America with an atlas that shows the states, the big cities and the main highways, and has a few street maps of local neighbourhoods, but displays nothing in between.
经济学人杂志 Suga Yoshihide became Japan’s 99th prime minister. He won the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party with 377 votes of a possible535, following Abe Shinzo’s resignation due to ill health in August. Mr. Suga, who served as Mr. Abe’s chief cabinet secretary, has promised continuity. But his background and stated priorities suggest a narrower focus on the economy。 菅义伟成为日本第99届首相。在安倍晋三八月份由于生病离职之后，他赢得了自由民主党535票中377票，从而获得领导权。菅义伟先生（曾经作为安倍晋三的内阁官房长官）承诺继续安倍的政策。但是他的背景和陈述出来的施政的优先权显示他对经济的聚焦将会减弱。 Thailand became the first South-East Asian country to lose tourism restrictions introduced during the pandemic. Visitors who agree to a14-day quarantine and a minimum stay will be allowed to enter. Malaysia’s prime minister, by contrast, said he would tighten controls at borders. Singapore will give all adult residents vouchers worth S$100 ($73) to spend on local hotels and sights.
What went wrong IN RECENT months many economists and policymakers, including such unlikely bedfellows as Paul Krugman, an economist and New York Times columnist, and Hank Paulson, a former American treasury secretary, have put “global imbalances”—the huge current-account surpluses run by countries like China, alongside America’s huge deficit—at the root of the financial crisis. But the IMF disagrees. It argues, in new papers released on Friday March 6th, that the “main culprit” was deficient regulation of t he financial system, together with a failure of market discipline. Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist, said this week that global imbalances contributed only “indirectly” to the crisis. This may sound like buck-passing by the world’s main interna tional macroeconomic organisation. But the distinction has important consequences for whether macroeconomic policy or more regulation of financial markets will provide the solutions to the mess. In broad strokes, the global imbalances view of the crisis argues that a glut of money from countries with high savings rates, such as China and the oil-producing states, came flooding into America. This kept interest rates low and fuelled the credit boom and the related boom in the prices of assets, such as houses and equity, whose collapse precipitated the financial crisis. A workable long-term fix for the problems of the world economy would, therefore, involve figuring out what to do about these imbalances. But the IMF argues that imbalances could not have caused the crisis without the creative ability of financial institutions to develop new structures and instruments to cater to investors’ demand for higher yields. These instruments turned out to be more risky than they appeared. Investors, overly optimistic about continued rises in asset prices, did not look closely into the nature of the assets that they bought, preferring to rely on the analysis of credit-rating agencies which were, in some cases, also selling advice on how to game the ratings system. This “failure of market discipline”, the fund argues, played a big role in the crisis. As big a problem, according to the IMF, was that financial regulation was flawed, ineffective and too limited in scope. What it calls the “shadow banking system”—the loosely regulated but highly interconnected network of investment banks, hedge funds, mortgage originators, and the like—was not subject to the sorts of prudential regulation (capital-adequacy norms, for example) that applied to banks. In part, the fund argues, this was because they were not thought to be systemically important, in the sense that banks were understood to be. But their being unregulated made it more attractive for banks (whose affiliates the non-banks often were) to evade capital requirements by pushing risk into these entities. In time, this network of institutions grew so large that they were indeed systemically important: in the now-familiar phrase, they were “too big” or “too interconnected” to fail. By late 2007, some estimates of the assets of the bank-like institutions in America outside the scope of existing prudential regulation, was around $10 trillion, as large as the assets of the regulated American banking system itself. Given this interpretation, it is not surprising that the IMF has thrown its weight strongly behind an enormous increase in the scale and scope of financial regulation in a series of papers leading up to the G20 meetings. Among many other proposals, it wants the shadow banking system to be subjected to the same sorts of prudential requirements that banks must follow. Sensibly, it is calling for regulation to concentrate on what an institution does, not what it is called (that is, the basis of regulation should be activities, not entities). It also wants regulators to focus more broadly on
Autism? 自闭症 Why it's not “Rain Woman”? 为什么它不是“雨女” Women have fewer cognitive disorders than men do because their bodies are better at ignoring the mutations which cause them? 与男性相比，患有认知障碍的女性较少，因为她们自身的身体能更好的忽略导致认知障碍的基因突变 AUTISM is a strange condition. Sometimes its symptoms of “social blindness”(an inability to read or comprehend the emotions of others) occur alone. This is dubbed high-functioning autism, or Asperger's syndrome. Though their fellow men and women may regard them as a bit odd, high-functioning autists are often successful (sometimes very successful) members of society. On other occasions, though, autism manifests as part of a range of cognitive problems. Then, the condition is debilitating. What is common to those on all parts of the so-called autistic spectrum is that they are more often men than women —so much more often that one school of thought suggests autism is an extreme manifestation of what it means, mentally, to be male. Boys are four times more likely to be diagnosed with autism than girls are. For high-functioning autism, the ratio is seven to one.?
《经济学家》读译参考（第13篇）：一路繁衍——你知道外来入侵物种吗？ Go forth and multiply 一往无前，生生不息 WHAT makes for a successful invasion? Often, the answer is to have better weapons than the enemy. And, as it is with people, so it is with plants—at least, that is the conclusion of a p_______①published in ★Biology Letters[1] by Naomi Cappuccino, of Carleton University, and Thor Arnason, of the University of Ottawa, both in Canada. 怎样才能成功入侵？答案常常是：拥有比敌人更好的武器。人是这样，植物也是如此——至少，《生物书简》上发表的一篇论文是这么认为的，作者是来自加拿大加里敦大学的纳奥米?卡普奇诺和渥太华大学的索尔?阿纳森。 The phenomenon of alien species ★popping up[2] in unexpected parts of the world has grown over the past few d________② as people and goods become more mobile and （1）?plant seeds and animal larvae have ★hitched[3] along for the ride?. Most such aliens blend into the ecosystem in which they arrive without too much fuss. (Indeed, many probably fail to establish themselves at all—but those failures, of course, are never noticed.) Occasionally, though, something ★goes bananas[4] and starts trying to take the place over, and an invasive species is born. Dr Cappuccino and Dr Arnason asked themselves w_______③. 过去的几十年，随着人和货物的流动日益频繁，植物种子和动物幼体也乘机“搭便车”四处播散，世界各地无意间出现了越来越多的外来物种。这些外来物种大多数都轻而易举地融入了所到之处的生态系统。（事实上，许多物种可能还没有站稳脚跟——当然，人们从未注意到这一点。）不过，偶尔也有某些物种疯狂繁殖，开始企图占领原有物种的生长空间，一种入侵物种就这样形成了。卡普奇诺和阿纳森对此感到百思不得其解。 One hypothesis is that aliens leave their predators b________④. Since the predators in their new homelands are not adapted to exploit them, they are able to reproduce unchecked. That is a nice idea, but it does not explain why only certain aliens become invasive. Dr Cappuccino and Dr Arnason suspected this might be because native predators are [b]（2）
China in Laos Busted flush How a Sino-Lao special economic zone hit the skids May 26th 2011 | BOTEN, LAOS | from the print edition ?Tweet ? Soon all this will be jungle again AT HOME and abroad, China is a byword for fast-track development, where yesterday’s paddy field is tomorrow’s factory, highway or hotel. Less noticed is that such development can just as quickly go into reverse. Golden City, in Boten, just over the border from China in tiny Laos, is a case in point. When a Hong Kong-registered company signed a 30-year, renewable lease with the Lao government in 2003 to set up a 1,640-hectare special economic zone built with mainland money and expertise, Golden City was touted as a
Japanese commuters try new ways to deter gropers 日本通勤族尝试用新方法防止性骚扰 Victims are fighting back with apps,badges and invisible ink 受害者正在用应用程序、徽章和隐形墨水来反击 Throughout her20s,Yayoi Matsunaga was groped,almost daily,on packed rush-hour trains going to and from work.Three decades later,she discovered that her friend’s daughter was being molested on her commute to high school. 在松永弥生20多岁的时候，她几乎每天都会在上下班高峰拥挤的列车上被人骚扰。30年过去了，她发现她朋友的女儿仍会在上高中的通勤路上被人骚扰。 The teenager,after fruitless talks with the police and railway companies, decided to hang a sign from her bag that read:“Groping is a crime.I will not cry myself to sleep.”The groping stopped immediately. 在与警方和铁路部门交涉无果后，这名女孩决定在她的书包上挂一个牌子，上面写着：“性骚扰就是犯罪，我不会暗自哭泣的。”效果立竿见影。 Inspired,Ms Matsunaga launched a crowdfunding campaign in2015to create badges with the same message.They proved as effective as the sign: nearly95%of users stopped experiencing groping on public transport, according to a survey.
【经济学人】双语阅读：政治遗传学人体政治 Science and technology 科学技术 The genetics of politics 政治遗传学 Body politic 人体政治 Slowly, and in some quarters grudgingly, the influence of genes in shaping political outlook and behaviour is being recognized 在某些方面，塑造政治前景和行为的基因影响正在慢慢地被人们所接受，虽然还是不情愿。 IN 1882 W.S. Gilbert wrote, to a tune by Sir Arthur Sullivan, a ditty that went I often think it's comical how Nature always does contrive/that every boy and every gal that's born into the world alive/is either a little Liberal or else a little Conservative. 在1882年，W.S吉尔伯特写的一首小诗-是为阿瑟-沙利文爵士的一首曲子而作，我一直认为，大自然的精工雕作是那么可笑/每个出生到这个世界上，并存活下来的男孩和女孩们/不是有一点自由倾向，就是有一点保守。 In the 19th century, that view, though humorously intended, would not have been out of place among respectable thinkers. 在十九世纪，这个观点虽然有一点幽默的意味，但是在那些备受尊敬的思想家眼中，也并不是一无是处。 The detail of a man's opinion might be changed by circumstances. 一个人意见的详细观点可能会由于环境而改变。 But the idea that much of his character was ingrained at birth held no terrors. 但是，这种与生俱来的，由他的性格决定的观念也没什么恐怖的。 It is not, however, a view that cut much ice in 20th-century social-scientific thinking, particularly after the second world war. 然而，它在二十世纪的社会科学思想中没有占到一席之地，特别是二战之后。 Those who allowed that it might have some value were generally shouted down and sometimes abused, along with all others vehemently suspected of the heresy of believing that genetic differences between individuals could have a role in shaping their behavioural differences. 那些认为它有一些价值的人们发出的呐喊，通常会被持不同观点人们的声音所掩盖，有时还会遭到辱骂，和那些对当时的异端邪说----即个体之间的遗传差异在塑造他们各自不同的行为上起了一定的作用----有些猜测的人们一样受到不公平对待。
TikTok time-bomb 抖音，一颗定时炸弹 TikTok’s silly clips raise some serious questions 抖音的搞笑视频带来了一些严肃的问题 If this article were a TikTok video,it would already be almost over—and you would be smiling.TikTok’s15-second clips are all the rage among teenage netizens. 如果这篇文章是一段抖音短视频的话，那么到这会应该就快结束了，而此时的你应该在哈哈大笑。抖音的15秒短视频在青少年网民中风靡一时。 The app was downloaded more than750m times in the past12months, more than Facebook plus its sister services,Instagram and WhatsApp, combined.Fun aside,TikTok raises serious questions—about data geopolitics,the power of internet incumbents and who sees what online. 这款应用在过去的一年的下载量高达7.5亿次，超过了Facebook及其姊妹应用Instagram和WhatsApp的总和。除了给人们带来欢乐外，抖音也带来了一些严肃的问题，例如数据地缘政治、互联网公司的力量以及用户能看到什么内容。 TikTok is YouTube on steroids.It bombards users with self-repeating clips. It forms a genre of quick-hit entertainment:a prank,a dare,a teenager looking pretty.Most are produced by adolescents,with easy-to-use
1、The Americas Argentina's debt Let's not make a deal Argentina may spurn a chance to settle with its creditors 美洲阿根廷债务别签协议啦阿根廷或将还债机会弃如敝履 WHEN Argentina defaulted on its debt for the second time in 13 years last July, the government blamed a pesky clause in its contracts with bondholders. 去年七月，阿根廷发生了十三年来的第二次债务违约，而政府却将这次违约归咎于与债权人签订的合同中的某项麻烦条款。 The so-called Rights Upon Future Offers (RUFO) clause was set to expire on December 31st,in theory opening the way to a settlement with bondholders who had refused Argentina's earlier offers of partial payment. 由于之前债权人拒绝阿根廷部分偿还，这项本应于12月31日到期的未来发行权利（RUFO）条款理论上可以解决与债权人之间的债务问题。 A deal would make it easier to borrow dollars, which the country badly needs to pay for imports. 这项协议可以为阿根廷借入美元提供更多便利，有了美元，阿根廷就可以解决进口商品所使用货币的燃眉之急。 But the president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, may spurn the opportunity. 不过，克里斯蒂娜?费尔南德斯?基什内尔总统却有可能将这一机会弃如敝履。 After its previous default (in 2001) Argentina offered RUFO as a way to entice bond holders to swap the old debt for new bonds worth much less than the original ones. 上次（2001年）债务违约后，阿根廷通过RUFO 怂恿债券持有人进行债务掉期，也就是说用原先价格较低的旧债券交换价格较高的新债券。 The clause says that any future deal offered to some bondholders would be extended to all of them. 这一条款规定，合同签署后，政府和部分债券持有人达成的协议将适用于全体债券持有人。 In 2012 a court in New York ruled that Argentina would have to pay in full the small minority of bondholders who refused the debt swap. 2012年，纽约一家法院判定阿根廷政府应向拒绝债务掉期的少数债券持有人一次付清所有债务。 These are mostly American hedge funds, which bought the bonds at a fraction of their face value. 后者主要是美国对冲基金，它们当初就是以远远低于面值的价格买入了阿根廷债券。 Argentina argued that complying with the court order would trigger billions in payments to all holders of bonds issued under New York law, and so chose to default. 阿根廷称，根据纽约法律，按法庭裁决行事将导致对债券持有人支付高达数十亿的费用，于是便选择了违约。 Since the court's ruling, its foreign-exchange reserves have dwindled to 30 billion, less than needed to pay for six months' imports. 法院作出判决后，阿根廷外汇储备已缩减至300亿美元，甚至不足以支付六个月的商品进口。 Low commodity prices mean that few dollars are flowing in. 较低物价意味着美元流入会更少。 The government has responded by further restricting imports, which has led to shortages of supplies to factories and of some consumer goods. 由于限制进口导致工厂供货和部分日用品出现了短缺，政府已对进一步限制进口做出了回应。 That is one reason why the economy is expected to shrink by around 1% in 2015. 这便是阿根廷经济增速预计将在2015年下跌1个百分点的原因之一。 Debt payments during the year will siphon off some 40% of international reserves. 全年的债务将造成外汇储备流失40%。In December Argentina tried to reduce that drain by offering holders of bonds due for repayment new securities that mature in 2024. 十二月时，阿根廷曾试图给债券持有人提供2024年到期的新债券，以避免本国外汇储备消耗过快。 The gambit failed miserably:just 4% of creditors volunteered to exchange their 2015 bonds. 这项策略后以惨败告终:只有4%的债权人自愿用2015年债券进行兑换。 Things are so desperate that the government will soon make an attractive offer to holdout bondholders, some observers believe. 一些观察家认为，当前情况万分危急，政府不久就会制定出富有吸引力的政策来维系人心。 The expiration of the RUFO clause makes the cost bearable; the government would not have to make the same offer to the other bondholders. 这次RUFO条款期满后，违约成本尚可担负；但政府今后不会再和其他债券持有人签署同样的协议了。But that is a minority view. 不过，这只是小部分人的看法。 The real obstacles to paying off the holdouts have always been political rather than contractual, many think. 许多人认为，一直以来，政府无力清偿债务的真正原因都不是合同问题，而是各种政治方面的因素。 Ms Fernandez and her advisers demonised them as vultures and blamed them for many of Argentina's woes. 在费尔南德斯总