2010年8月30日
下半年半年宏观政策走势宏观政策走势宏观政策走势判断判断判断 - 是松是紧是松是紧？？
经济减经济减速速，进一步一步紧缩
紧缩紧缩政策的可能性不大
政策的可能性不大政策的可能性不大。。银监会银监会信信贷控制控制、、银行政策行政策调调整、房地房地产产市场
调整，有助于有助于达达到扼制扼制过过高投高投资资、稳定资产资产价格的目价格的目价格的目标标。而充足的流而充足的流动动性、一系列相一系列相继实继实施的施的区区域规划规划，，依旧是政策由是政策由紧转紧转紧转松松的明的明显显迹象迹象。。同时，较好的好的财财政收入政收入能能够保证区证区域域规划中，与基础设础设施投施投施投资资的相配套的的相配套的资资金。 房地房地产产市场量跌价平量跌价平，，调控政策政策将将持续。目前目前，，政府通政府通过过采取信采取信贷贷手段手段，，严格控制格控制开发开发开发商商
的资金来源，迫使迫使开发开发开发商打破房价商打破房价商打破房价稳稳定的局面定的局面，，迎来价格下跌价格下跌。。我们认为们认为，，调控政策控政策将进将进一步增加供一步增加供应应，打压投机需求投机需求，，改变当变当前前房地房地产产市场的状况状况。。但同时，除非除非在在房价房价再次再次再次显显著上升的小概率概率事件事件事件，，政府政府一般一般一般不不会也不需要不需要出台出台出台更加更加更加严厉严厉严厉的的调控调控政策政策政策，，如房地如房地产产保有保有税税等，来达来达到到稳定房屋定房屋销销售、实现实现房价适度下跌的理想房价适度下跌的理想房价适度下跌的理想结结果。 未来物价走物价走势牵动势牵动势牵动政策取向政策取向政策取向。。基于短期食品价格上基于短期食品价格上涨
涨，非食品价格非食品价格温温和的判和的判断断，我们将8月份CPI 数据修据修订为订为3.4%3.4%，，高于原3.3%3.3%的的预期水平期水平。。但由于政府有但由于政府有较为较为较为充足的粮食充足的粮食充足的粮食储备储备和补贴补贴政策政策政策，，我们认为们认为食品价格持食品价格持食品价格持续续大幅大幅上上涨的可能性的可能性较较小。基于基于非非食品价格价格趋于趋于趋于稳定稳定稳定以以及翘尾翘尾因素因素因素的的下降下降，，我们我们判断判断判断通胀通胀通胀高点高点高点在在8月，此后此后逐步逐步逐步放缓放缓放缓。。因此因此，，估计估计年年内利率和存款准款准备备金率金率不不会进会进一步一步一步调调整。汇率方面率方面，，随着国际国际收支收支收支持续持续持续盈余盈余盈余以及以及以及年底之前美元走弱年底之前美元走弱年底之前美元走弱，，人民人民币币有望有望进进一步升一步升值值。
我们在5月20日发表报告《警惕中国政策转为松动》中提到四个迹象显示中国宏观政策由紧转松，包括：温总理出访天津时，谈及避免由于经济政策过紧导致经济再次探底；央行在公开市场注入流动性；上海物业税的传言破灭；发改委对5-6月份物价水平保持3％的乐观估计。进入6、7月份，发改委进一步加大对西部投资力度，增大家电、汽车补贴，央行曾连续八周为公开市场注入流动性，偏松的政策信号更加明显。
未来经济政策如何？我们详细回顾了近期决策层的一些行动，以期探寻下半年中国宏观政策取向。
紧缩政策预期升温
新一轮压力测试
8月初，银监会假定房价下跌50-60％，进行新一轮压力测试。此前的一轮压力测试，假定了房价下跌30%，利率上升108个基点，而测试结果显示其对商业银行影响有限。我们认为，此次压力测试显示了银监会谨慎的态度，并非房地产市场进一步紧缩的信号。
停止第三套房贷。
目前，大多数城市已经停止了第三套房贷，而未叫停的地区，第三套房首付要提高至六成、利率上浮50%。我们认为，停止第三套房贷是在巩固房地产调控政策效果，而非进一步收紧的信号。
Chief Economist
Jianguang Shen
jianguang.shen@https://www.doczj.com/doc/c214364491.html,
+852 2685 2022
Negative bias
Caution
Positive news
SALES Hong Kong
Alan Chen
alan.chen@https://www.doczj.com/doc/c214364491.html, +852 2685 2268
London
Tim Lowe
tim.lowe@https://www.doczj.com/doc/c214364491.html, +44 20 7090 6969
New York
John Bai
john.bai@https://www.doczj.com/doc/c214364491.html, +1 212 209 9354
Please refer to pages 15-16 of this report for important disclosure and analyst certification information.
The MHSC Group either does or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors
限制银行信用产品
近日，银监会发文要求银行将之前的银信理财合作业务中，所有表外资产在今明两年全部转入表内，并按150%的拨备覆盖率计提拨备。大型银行对这些资产的资本充足率必须达到11.5%，中小型银行要达到10%。信托贷款不得高过信托实收余额30%。考虑到距2011年截至日还有较长时间，到期信托产品会从资产负债表中移出，未来鼓励金融创新等原因，相信决策层相互协调之后，此项措施不会过于苛刻，新要求不会导致下半年贷款的急剧下跌。
土地“黑名单”出炉，房地产开发商贷款限制
近日，国土资源部发布了一份涉及全国越1400宗闲置土地的黑名单。银监会将根据这份“黑名单”做全面的排查，收回一些闲置土地。数据显示，北京、广州、海南、江苏等地闲置土地占比最大，达到全国闲置土地的25％。而闲置土地中，70％的是住宅用地。早前，国务院副总理李克强讲话提到应严格遏制投机性需求，其后银监会即要求银行仔细审查对房地产开发商的贷款。与之相对，下半年，政府将增加房屋供应以确保房地产市场的稳定和健康发展。
松动政策亦有体现
央行公开再次为公开市场注入了流动性
上周央行净投放410亿，再次为公开市场注入了流动性。5月25日以来，央行连续八周净投放,累计注入资金超过9000亿元。而7月20日以来，央行则连续4周保持资金净回笼,累计净回笼资金达到2500亿元左右。货币市场利率总体上一直呈平稳或下降趋势。
图表11银行间拆借市场利率依然较低
图表
资料来源: CEIC, 瑞穗证券
发改委区域规划密集出台
7月初，发改委提出2010年西部大开发将新开工23项重点工程,投资总规模达6822亿元，彰显了政府西部开发态度。8月份，在深圳经济特区建立30周年之际，国务院批准了《深圳市城市总体规划》，强调深圳城市的核心地位，并提出改善城市服务，改善城市交通，强化深圳与香港的联系等内容。8月25日，发改委连发两文力促中部地区崛起，深入实施《促进中部地区崛起规划》。至此，从2007年长株潭、武汉“两型社会”改革试验区规划出炉以来，已经有超过20个区域振兴计划出炉。其中，关于中西部区域政策更加强调了促进经济发展，这必将支持未来几年内中西部投资和公共支出的高速增长。
图表图表22 系列区域规划 推出时间推出时间 区域振兴计划区域振兴计划
受惠地区受惠地区 2007-12 长株潭、武汉“两型社会”改革试验区 湖北、湖南 2008-1 广西北部湾经济区发展规划
广西 2008-3 天津滨海新区综合配套改革试验总体方案 天津 2008-12 珠江三角洲地区改革发展规划纲要
广东 2009-1 关于推进重庆市统筹城乡改革和发展的若干意见 重庆 2009-3 上海建设国际金融与航运中心
上海 2009-5 关于支持福建省加快建设海峡西岸经济区的若干意见 福建 2009-5 成都市统筹城乡综合配套改革试验总体方案 四川 2009-6 江苏沿海地区发展规划 江苏 2009-6 横琴岛总体发展规划 广东 2009-6 关中―天水经济区发展规划 甘肃、陕西 2009-7 辽宁沿海经济带发展规划 辽宁 2009-8 中国图们江区域合作开发规划纲要 吉林 2009-9 促进中部地区崛起规划
中部六省 2009-12 黄河三角洲高效生态经济区发展规划 山东 2009-12 鄱阳湖生态经济区规划 江西 2009-12 甘肃省循环经济总体规划
甘肃 2009-12 关于推进海南国际旅游岛建设发展的若干意见 海南 2010-1 皖江城市带承接产业转移示范区规划 安徽 2010-6 重庆两江新区
重庆 2010-8 关于深圳市、郑州市城市总体规划的批复
深圳，郑州 2010（待）
关于促进蒙古自治区经济社会又好又快发展若干意见
内蒙古
资料来源: NDRC, 瑞穗证券
紧缩政策不可取的几点原因：
经济增长有所放缓
7月份，PMI指数从6月份的52.1下降到51.2，进一步显示经济减速。此外，6月份的钢材库存量
已升至1030万吨。同时，7月份，工业生产数据增速大幅放缓，主要受紧缩的货币政策、放缓
的基础设施投资、严厉地房地产投机打压政策、以及国内节能减排政策，部分工厂关闭的影
响。中国政策制定的立场有可能从紧缩转向松动的判断。我们认为，伴随着强劲的消费增长势
头和好于预期的欧洲经济复苏进程，预计2010年下半年中国将实现软着陆（请见2010年7月13
日报告“政策松动实现软着陆”）。
正如我们在8月11日报告《强劲出口将促人民币升值》中提到的，基于美国经济的疲软，欧洲
采取进一步紧缩政策，中国制造业劳动力工资，上涨，以及近百种产品的出口退税率降低等原
因，我们认为中国出口将在今年四季度迎来真正的挑战，预计年底各出口项目将大幅减速，12
月份出口同比增长有可能低于10%。
而从消费来看，未来消费增速虽有下降，但依然强劲，工资上涨带动居民消费率提升，成为支
持经济增长的亮点。我们判断，在经历过一季度11.9％、二季度10.3％的增长后，下半年经济
增速将进一步下降，四季度GDP将下降至8.5％。
图表33经济活动减速：工业生产减速和钢铁存货增加
图表
资料来源: CEIC, 瑞穗证券
图表图表44
投资和出口会下降较快
资料来源: CEIC, 瑞穗证券
图表图表55 消费依然强劲，贸易顺差加大
资料来源: CEIC, 瑞穗证券
房地产调控政策仍在继续，但不会进一步紧缩
调控政策出台时，我们曾发文，提出严厉的地产调控、收紧的货币政策、增加的保障房，都将打压处于高位的房价。其后，物业税传言破灭、决策者又担心经济二次探底，我们认为房价大幅下降的可能性降低。6月份，房价环比增速放缓，显示了房地产泡沫已经得到控制。伴随着打压投机需求，增加供给的政策效果进一步体现，预计四季度之前，房价会有进一步下跌。我们认为，调控政策将进一步增加供应，打压投机需求，改变当前房地产市场的状况。但同时，除非在房价再次显著上升的小概率事件，政府一般不会也不需要出台更加严厉的调控政策，如房地产保有税等，来达到稳定房屋销售、实现房价适度下跌的理想结果。
资料来源: CEIC, 瑞穗证券
图表图表77
新屋销售大幅下降
资料来源:
CEIC, 瑞穗证券
图表图表88 房地产投资依然强劲
资料来源: CEIC, 瑞穗证券
信贷扩张或达目标，下半年流动性仍然较高
2010年上半年，新增贷款略高于4.5万亿的目标，但符合央行的政策导向。央行在二季度货币政策例会上提出将继续采取适度宽松的货币政策，标志着决策层将保持适度的贷款扩张和流动性。我们认为，这进一步佐证了中国政府出于对国内外经济前景不确定的担心，放弃采纳紧缩的立场。7月份，由于小银行贷款受限原因，新增贷款余额低于预期，但这并非政策紧缩的信号，预计全年新增贷款会达到7.5万亿的目标，下半年流动性依然较高。
图表9 Credit conditions remain accommodative
资料来源: CEIC, 瑞穗证券
人民币汇率变化更为灵活
国际清算银行统计数据显示，7月份人民币实际有效汇率为117.88，环比下降1%；名义有效汇率为115.72，环比下跌1.45%。2010年6月19日，央行重起人民币汇率的改革，并进一步强调，人民币汇率比变动将参考一篮子货币，更加灵活。7月份，由于货币篮子中主要货币日元、欧元兑美元实现反弹，导致了人民币实际汇率的下跌。我们认为，由于目前强劲的出口和贸易盈余，决策层对全球经济二次探底和欧洲债务危机的担忧，人民币变化更为灵活等原因，短期内人民币兑美元会继续升值。
图表图表101010 人民币仍在升值
资料来源: CEIC, 瑞穗证券
未来通货膨胀走势先高后低
在翘尾因素和食品价格上涨的带动下，7月份CPI从6月2.9%升至3.3%。其中，食品价格上涨主
要受洪水及其他自然灾害影响，而除食品价格以外，核心CPI仍然处于温和。PPI降幅较大，从
6月份的6.4%下降至7月份的4.8%。
继续上涨的食品价格成为风险。商务部数据显示，8月份，农产品价格指数环比上涨2.7%，蔬
菜价格环比上涨8.3%，蛋类价格环比上涨5.1%，肉类价格环比上涨6.3%。而食品价格的大幅上
涨已经引起高度关注。国务院已经召开会议讨论如何保证秋粮产量，提出包括增加供给、减少
运输成本、调整价格机制，促进蔬菜规模生产在内的具体措施。由于秋粮占据全年粮食供应的
70%，未来政府将投11亿保证秋粮丰收。农业部预计今年全国秋粮面积11.49亿亩，有望比去年
增加1300万亩；
我们预计，8月份CPI有望达到3.4%，高于上个月和早期的预测水平，其中食品价格环比增长
2.5%，非食品价格与上个月持平。下半年通胀压力依然存在，但由于政府有较为充足的粮食储
备和补贴政策，我们认为食品价格持续大幅上涨的可能性较小。我们判断8月份将达到物价水
平最高点，其后逐步缓解，12月份物价水平将降到3%以下。
图表111111 中国CPI主要由食品价格上涨引起
图表
资料来源: CEIC, 瑞穗证券
图表121212 8月份，食品八大类涨幅
图表
农村蛋类 禽类
水果
食用油 农村蛋类
蔬菜 水果
禽类 蔬菜
元/公斤
公斤 小包装大米
小包装大米 小包装面粉
小包装面粉 肉类
肉类 食用油
5月 1.29 0.87 -0.61 -0.32 -0.42 -0.76 -6.73 3 6月 0.63 0.52 0.05 -0.08 0.63 -0.18 -18.27 -0.35 7月 0.49 0.05 5.49 -0.09 1.51 -0.06 3.52 -2.59 8月第一周 0.92 0.87 5.38 0.26 3.53 0.56 7.77 0.37 8月前两周 1.02 0.98 6.02 0.31 4.31 0.61 7.39 0.17 8月前三周 1.02 0.98 6.33 0.36 5.06 0.69 8.30 -0.13 资料来源: MoC, MoA, 瑞穗证券
图表图表131313 CPI 构成
资料来源: CEIC, 瑞穗证券
图表14 PPI 构成
PP 耐用消费品类,
加工工业,原料工业,PPI 构成I 构成
食品类, 9.7%
衣着类, 4.1%7.3%一般日用品类,
5.9%41.6%
25.6%
采掘工业, 5.8%PPI 构成
资料来源: CEIC, 瑞穗证券
图表图表141414 下半年CPI 预测
6月 7月 8月预测
9月预测
10月预测
11月预测
12月预测
CPI(同比) 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 3 2.9 CPI(环比)
-0.6 0.4 0.8 0.2 -0.3 0.2 1.0 食品（同比） 5.7 6.8 8.2 8 7.8 7.6 7.4 食品（环比）
-1.6
0.9
2.5
0.5
-1
0.3
2.7
资料来源: NBS, 瑞穗证券
图表图表151515 下半年翘尾因素下降，猪肉价格仍在上涨
资料来源: CEIC, 瑞穗证券
图表图表161616 食品CPI 与商务部农产品价格指数之间关系
资料来源: CEIC, MOC, 瑞穗证券
图表171717 通货膨胀跟踪图表
资料来源: CEIC, 瑞穗证券
总结
经济减速，进一步紧缩政策的可能性不大
银监会信贷控制、银行政策调整、房地产市场调整，有助于达到抑制放缓过高投资、稳定资产价格的目标。而充足的流动性、一系列相继实施的区域规划，依旧是政策由紧转松的明显迹象。同时，较好的财政收入能够保证区域规划中，与基础设施投资的相配套的资金。财政部数据显示，1-7月全国财政收入5.11万亿，同比增长25.7%，超出全年财政收入增长8%的目标。
房地产市场量跌价平，调控政策将持续
目前，政府通过采取信贷手段，严格控制开发商的资金来源，迫使开发商打破房价稳定的局面，迎来价格下跌。我们认为，调控政策将进一步增加供应，打压投机需求，改变当前房地产市场的状况。但同时，除非在房价再次显著上升的小概率事件，政府一般不会也不需要出台更加严厉的调控政策，如房地产保有税等，来达到稳定房屋销售、实现房价适度下跌的理想结果。
未来物价走势牵动政策取向
基于短期食品价格上涨，非食品价格温和的判断，我们将8月份CPI数据修订为3.4%，高于原3.3%的预期水平。但由于政府有较为充足的粮食储备和补贴政策，我们认为食品价格持续大幅上涨的可能性较小。基于非食品价格趋于稳定以及翘尾因素的下降，我们判断通胀高点在8月，此后逐步放缓。因此，估计年内利率和存款准备金率不会进一步调整。汇率方面，随着国际收支持续盈余以及年底之前美元走弱，人民币有望进一步升值。
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