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Multifractal Scaling of Thermally-Activated Rupture Processes

Multifractal Scaling of Thermally-Activated Rupture Processes
Multifractal Scaling of Thermally-Activated Rupture Processes

a r X i v :p h y s i c s /0407053v 1 [p h y s i c s .g e o -p h ] 12 J u l 2004

APS preprint

Multifractal Scaling of Thermally-Activated Rupture Processes

D.Sornette 1,2,3and G.Ouillon 1,3

1

Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics,University of California,Los Angeles,CA 900952

Department of Earth and Space Sciences,University of California,Los Angeles,CA 90095

3

Laboratoire de Physique de la Mati`e re Condens′e e,

CNRS UMR 6622and Universit′e de Nice-Sophia Antipolis,06108Nice Cedex 2,France ?

(Dated:February 2,2008)

We propose a “multifractal stress activation”model combining thermally activated rupture and long memory stress relaxation,which predicts that seismic decay rates after mainshocks follow the Omori law ~1/t p with exponents p linearly increasing with the magnitude M L of the mainshock and the inverse temperature.We carefully test this prediction on earthquake sequences in the Southern California Earthquake catalog:we ?nd power law relaxations of seismic sequences triggered by mainshocks with exponents p increasing with the mainshock magnitude by approximately 0.1?0.15for each magnitude unit increase,from p (M L =3)≈0.6to p (M L =7)≈1.1,in good agreement with the prediction of the multifractal model.

PACS numbers:91.30.Px ;89.75.Da;05.40.-a

Parisi and Frisch [1]and Halsey et al.[2]have intro-duced the extended concept of scale invariance,called multifractality,motivated by hydrodynamic turbulence and fractal growth aggregates https://www.doczj.com/doc/c010374907.html,e of the multifractal spectrum as a metric to characterize com-plex systems is now routinely used in many ?elds,in-cluding seismology to describe the hierarchical structure in space and time of earthquakes and faults (see for in-stance [3,4,5]).However,the origin of multifractal-ity is rarely identi?ed.This is certainly true for earth-quakes for which the possible existence of multifractal-ity is under scrutiny due to limited and corrupted data sets leading to biases [6]and its origin a matter of de-bate:fractal growth processes [7],self-organized critical-ity [4]or hierarchical cascades of stresses [8]are among the physical scenarios proposed to lead to multifractal-ity in fault and earthquake patterns.Here,we propose a physically-based “multifractal stress activation”model of earthquake interaction and triggering based on two sim-ple ingredients:(i)a seismic rupture results from ther-mally activated processes giving an exponential depen-dence on the local stress;(ii)the stress relaxation has a long memory.The interplay between these two physical processes are shown to lead to a multifractal organization of seismicity,which we observe quantitatively in real cat-alogs.

Thermal activation is relevant in all previously pro-posed physical processes underlying earthquakes:creep rupture,stress corrosion and state-and-velocity depen-dent friction.We model seismic activity λ( r ,t )at po-sition r and time t as the occurence of frictional slid-ing events and/or fault ruptures that are thermally ac-tivated processes facilitated by the applied stress ?eld:λ( r ,t )~exp [?βE ( r ,t )],where βis the inverse temper-ature and the energy barrier E ( r ,t )for rupture can be written as the sum of a contribution E 0( r )characterizing the material and of a term linearly decreasing with the

locally applied stress Σ( r ,t ):E ( r ,t )=E 0( r )?V Σ( r ,t ).V is a constant which has the dimension of a volume and Σ( r ,t )is the total stress at position r and time t .The decrease of the energy barrier E ( r ,t )as a function of the applied stress Σ( r ,t )embodies the various physical pro-cesses aiding rupture activation under stress.In addition,there are many evidences for a stress-controlled earth-quake activation process,suggesting that earthquakes trigger earthquakes directly and indirectly via dynami-cal and static stress transfers.Visco-elastic models of stress relaxation can account for the short-term relax-ation processes of the strain measured by geodetic meth-ods but,over long time scales,it is necessary to take into account the presence and geometry of lower crustal and mantle shear zones,which lead to slower decay-ing relaxation rates.We thus write the stress Σ( r ,t )at position r and time t as the sum of contributions from all past events at earlier times τ

In this letter,we restrict our analysis to the time do-main.For this,we assume for simplicity that g ( r ,t )is separable as g ( r ,t )=f ( r )×h (t ).This obtains

λ( r ,t )=λtec ( r ,t )exp β t ?∞

dτs ( r ,τ)h (t ?τ)

,(1)

where s ( r ,τ)= d r ′?σ( r ′,τ)f ( r ? r ′)is the e?ective source at time τat point r resulting from all events occur-ring in the spatial domain at the same time τ.λtec ( r ,t )is the spontaneous seismicity rate in absence of stress

2 triggering by other earthquakes and accounts for the tec-

tonic loading(far?eld stress),which may in general be

non-homogeneous in space and perhaps depends on time.

Since expression(1)is de?ned for any r,we drop the ref-

erence to r without loss of generality.

To go further,we specify the distribution P(s)of

stress sources and the memory kernel h(t).On the ba-

sis of theoretical calculations,simulations and measure-

ments of rotations of earthquake focal mechanisms,Ka-

gan[9]has suggested that P(s)should follow a symmetric

Cauchy distribution.To capture in a phenomenological

way the extended nature and complexity of earthquake

ruptures,we use a more general power law distribution

P(s)~C/|?s|1+μ,which generalizes the Cauchy case

μ=1.To account for the slower-than-exponential stress

relaxation processes discussed above,we postulate that

h(t)=c1+θ

λtec |ωM]=Pr[ω(t)>(1/β)ln λq

2

Var[ω(t)|ωM] ,

where E[ω(t)|ωM]=ωM Cov[ω(t),ωM]

Var[ωM]

.For power law

stress sources,we use the insight that the natural gener-

alization of the variance for power laws p(x)≈C/x1+μ

with in?nite variance(i.e.,withμ<2)is the scale pa-

rameter C(see Chap.4of[11]).In the power law case,

due to the linear form ofωin(2),we can still write

ω(t)=γ(t)ωM+?but withω(t),ωM and?being power

law distributed random variables with the same expo-

nentμand with scale factors equal respectively to Cω

(forωandωM)and C?.The key idea is thatγcan

be determined by forming the random variable de?ned

as the productωωM=γω2M+?ωM.It is straightfor-

ward to show that the distribution ofωωM consists of

two main contributions,(i)a dominant power law with

exponentμ/2and scale factor Cωω

M

=γμ/2Cω,and

(ii)a sub-dominant power law with exponentμ(with

a logarithmic correction)and scale factor CωC?.This

has the following practical implication:if one measures

or calculates the leading power law decay ofω×ωM,

the measure of its scale factor gives access to the pa-

rameterγthrough the expressionγ(t)=(Cωω

M

/Cω)2

2 2

?t2/μ 1t?1c/t dy1y m

2

3

We thus obtain Pr[ω(t )>y |ωM ]=Pr[γωM +?>

y |ωM ]=Pr[?>y ?γωM |ωM ]=ˉF

(y ?γ(t )ωM ),where ˉF

(?)is the complementary

cumulative distribu-

tion

of

?

.Putting

these

results

in (2),

this leads to

Pr[λ(t )>λq |λM ]=ˉF

(1/β)ln λq

t p (M )

,p (M )=aβM +bβ,(5)

where a >0and M is the mainshock magnitude.

Consider ?rst the case 2m =μ(1+θ)=1,such that the exponent m =(1+θ)μ/2de?ned in (3)equal to 1/2.Then,

dγμ/2

t

(T +c )1/2

(t +c )1/2

,

showing that

dγμ/2

(t +c )p ,

where B is a

positive parameter introduced to account for the back-ground seismicity assumed to be superimposed over the genuine triggered sequences.The time shift c ensures the regularization of the seismic rate at t =0.

The ?rst declustering method is essentially the same as de?ned in [10]:every event in the catalog is de?ned as a mainshock if it has not been preceded by an event with larger magnitude within a ?xed space-time window T ×d ,with T =1year and d =50km.Looking for events trig-gered by this mainshock,we de?ne another space-time window following it.The time dimension of the window is also set to 1year,whereas the space dimension depends on the rupture length of the main event.This spatial win-dow is chosen as a circle of radius equal to the mainshock rupture length L =10?2.57+0.6M L ,which is the average relationship between L and magnitude M L for California [16].If any event falls within this space-time window,it is considered as triggered by the main event.We have also checked the stability of the results by considering a spatial neighborhood of radius 2L rather than L for the triggered events.The second declustering method is the same as the ?rst one,except for one element:the space window used for qualifying a mainshock is not ?xed to d =50km but is chosen to adapt to the size of the rupture lengths L (M i )given by L =10?2.57+0.6M L of all events of all possible magnitudes M L (i )preceding this potential mainshock.

Figure 1shows sets of typical seismic decay rates of stacked sequences for several magnitude intervals of the mainshocks,for the period from 1932to 2003when using the ?rst declustering technique,with mainshock magni-tudes above M L =1.5.Very similar plots are obtained for di?erent time periods,with the second declustering method and by varying the size from L to 2L of the spa-tial domain over which the triggered sequences are se-lected [15].For large mainshock magnitudes,the roll-o?

4

FIG.1:Normalized seismic decay rates of stacked sequences for several magnitude intervals of the mainshocks,for the pe-riod from 1932to 2003when using the second declustering technique.

at small times is due to the observational saturation and short-time lack of completeness of triggered sequences.

FIG.2:p -values of the Omori law ~1/t p obtained by the procedure described in the text for mainshocks (de?ned using the second declustering algorithm)as a function of the main events’magnitude,for the di?erent sub-catalogs of lifespans given in the inset.

Figure 2shows the ?tted p -values as a function of the magnitude of the mainshocks for each of the four sub-catalogs.We use a standard least-square ?t of the seismic rate as a function of time with a weight proportional to t for each bin to balance their relative importance.We also take into account the possible presence of a background term.We have also performed maximum likelihood esti-mations of the exponent p ,con?rming the results shown in Fig.2[15].To test the reliability and robustness of our results,we have simulated synthetic catalogs with the ETAS model with known statistical properties following exactly the same procedure as for the real catalogs.The

model provides a particular strong null hypothesis rationalizes most of the phenomenological statisti-of earthquake catalogs [17].By construc-synthetic catalogs generated with the ETAS model exhibit Omori laws with magnitude-independent Applying our procedure to such synthetic allows us to investigate whether the magnitude-of the p -value reported above could result some bias introduced by our analysis rather than a genuine property of earthquake catalogs.We that p (M )obtained by our procedure is a con-independent of M equal to the input value used in of the synthetic catalog [15].

Let us conclude by o?ering an intuitive explanation of (5)using the properties of multifractal spectra.The temporal evolution of seismicity in a ?xed spatial domain de?nes a statistically stationary measure on the tempo-ral axis,the measure determining the rate of earthquakes at any possible instant.An Omori sequence with expo-nent p corresponds to a singularity (to the right)equal to 1?p (logarithmic for p =1).A large earthquake triggers a strong burst of seismicity,giving rise to a strong singu-larity.For the relation α=1?p to be consistent with the multifractal description,a large earthquake must be associated with a strong singularity,a small α,hence a large p .Reciprocally,small moment orders q select weak seismic sequences,which are thus associated with small local mainshocks.Small q ’s are associated with large α’s,hence small p ’s.By a similar argument in the space do-main,the exponent of the spatial decay of the seismic rate induced by a mainshock of magnitude M L should increase with M L .Thus,in this view,the ETAS model is nothing but the mono-fractal approximation of a more general multifractal description of seismicity.

This work was partially supported by NSF-EAR02-30429and by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC).

?

Electronic address:sornette@https://www.doczj.com/doc/c010374907.html,

[1]Parisi,G.and Frisch,U.,in Proc.Int.School Enrico

Fermi,eds.M.Ghil et al.(North Holland,Amsterdam,1985).

[2]Halsey,T.C.et al.,Phys.Rev.A 33,1141(1986).[3]Godano C.et al.,Geophys.J.Int.136,99(1999).[4]Main,I.,Rev.Geophys.34,433(1996).

[5]Ouillon G.et al.,J.Geophyss Res.101,5477(1996).[6]Ouillon,G.and Sornette D.,Geophys.Res.Lett.23,3409

(1996).

[7]Sornette,A.et al.,J.Geophys.res.98,12111(1993).[8]Rodkin,M.V.,Izvestiya-Physics Sol.Earth.37,663

(2001).

[9]Kagan,Y.Y.,Nonlinear Proc.Geophys.1,171(1994).[10]Helmstetter,A.,Phys.Rev.Lett.91,058501(2003).[11]Sornette,D.,Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences,

2nd ed.(Springer,Heidelberg,2004).

[12]Schmitt,F.and Marsan,D.,Eur.Phys.J.B 20,3(2001).[13]Muzy,J.-F.and E.Bacri,Phys.Rev.E 66,056121(2002).[14]Sornette,D.et al.,Risk 16,67(2003).

5

[15]Ouillon,G.and D.Sornette,cond-mat/0407208

[16]Wells, D.L.and Coppersmith,K.J.,Bull.Seism.Soc.

Am.84,974(1994).[17]Helmstetter,A.and D.Sornette,J.Geophys.Res.108,

10.1029,2003.

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