Study on an Evaluating Model of Forestry Carbon Sequestration Capacity by Using GIS
Quan Li Xu,Kun Yang*,Shuang Yun Peng,Jia Sheng
Wang,Jian Hong Xiong
Faculty of Tourism and Geographic Science Yunnan Normal University, No.298, Dec.1st Street,650091
Kunming, P.R.China
Go2happiness@https://www.doczj.com/doc/b417650579.html,
*Corresponding author: Kmdcynu@https://www.doczj.com/doc/b417650579.html,
Jun Hua Yi
The Institute of Potogrammetry and Remote Sense of
Yunnan Province
Kunming, P.R.China
Yjh2ok@https://www.doczj.com/doc/b417650579.html,
Abstract—At the age of post-Kyoto Protocol, international forestry carbon sequestration project not only has strongly achieved the form of harmoniously developing between economy and environment conservancy in developing countries, but also is promoting the relative research on theory and technology in Forestry Carbon Sequestration. And this paper has discussed that how to establish the Geo-Spatial Model of Evaluating for Forestry Carbon Sequestration Capacity, as well as the principle, method and the result of it’s integrating with GIS. In any case, this study mainly concentrates on how to find the optimistic trees and land blocks for forestation, and estimating the economic benefit and the invested risk of planting in the selected land block with the selected tree, so that the GIS software based on this model could offer some reasonable and scientific evidences for decision-making supporting in forestation, furthermore, in forestry carbon trade. An experiment with ArcObjects for the models has been given in the end. And as a result, we also analyses the result, as well as make a research conclusion.
Keywords- Forest Carbon Sequestration, Geo-spatial Model, Modeling, ArcGIS, ArcObjects, ArcSDE
I.I NTRODUCTION
The pollution which is leading a warmer weather in climate on the earth due to letting Greenhouse atmosphere (such as CO2) has been a common and international challenge to whole the human. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has been in effect since March 1994,and it is the first convention that whole controls the emission of greenhouse atmosphere like CO2 against changing warmer of climate in globe, as well as a basic framework for cooperating in facing the common problem of climate changing. It is only a standard, however, the convention has no any sanction in law for all the world. Therefore, the third conference COP3 taking in Kyoto come into being Kyoto Protocol, which main aim is to give a concrete limitation with the law on emission of CO2 for developed industry countries. In order to help those countries to complete their mission, there are three implement mechanisms in this protocol, which are JI, EI and CDM. And the forest carbon sequestration project under CDM is the only tight collaboration between developed county and developing country to confront with the change of climate globally.
At the same time, the relative technologies and theories on forest carbon sequestration are increasing rapidly, which include geo-spatial modeling of evaluation for forest carbon sequestration Capacity. And this aim of modeling is to find what land is suitable for which trees each other ,and furthermore how to obtain a maximum carbon or economic benefit under the minimum cost. These models are much helpful in decision making for carbon trade.
II.T HE S UMMARIZATION ON G EO-SPATIAL M ODEL OF
E VALUATING FOR
F OREST C ARBON S EQUESTRATION
C APACITY
A.The Structure and Correlation of Models
The models discussed in this paper include three submodels, which are optimistic selecting between Trees and Land-Blocks, estimating of carbon sequestration, and economic calculating on carbon trade. And the first model is the most important and complex one in these submodels, which also has two parts that are tree-selecting model and land-blocks-selecting model. The second model and the third model will be implemented based on the first model. The correlation of those models is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1. The general structure of whole model and the correlation of
submodels
B.The Parameters and Output for Models
The ensuring of parameters and output of those models is affected by many aspects, which include tree’s formula of growth, tree’s condition of growth and level of carbon trade in market, ect. Thereby, how to select those parameters and make an output for model’s result has no universal standard. At the much time, that is always distinguishing in the different carbon sequestration projects. According to the status of Yunnan
This work is supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2007AA12Z231), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2007AA12Z231) , the Yunnan Science Fund (Grant No.2009FXW001) and the Youth Fund of Kunming University of Technology and Science (Grant No. KKZ2200804031).
province, we define the basic parameters and output for above models, which is shown as follows.
?Trees-Blocks selecting Model
Function: find the suitable trees or land blocks in the given situation in order to obtain the maximum
carbon sequestration or lower cost
Parameter
Terrain: Aspect, Slope, Land-position, Altitude;
Climate: The average(Min and Max)rainfall in
month or year, the average(Min and
Max)temperature in month or year and those
difference in temperature or rainfall;
Soil: The type of soil ,the fertilizer in soil and
the deepness of soil;
Growth: The average growth ratio in month or
year
Carbon Capacity: The average carbon sequestration for single tree at it’s grown
period.
Output
Output the trees sorted by the suitable degree
for the given land block.
Output visually the land blocks sorted by the
suitable degree for the given tree.
?Estimating Model for carbon sequestration
Function: according the selecting block and tree, convert the growth Capacity to carbon sequestration
and estimate it.
Parameter
Land Block: Include the all parameters
described above
Time: the period of estimating
Output: The sum of carbon sequestration for every tree during the estimating period, and be sorted
ascending
?Model of evaluating for economic benefit
Function: Give a whole evaluation at the economic benefit of carbon sequestration with the selecting
block and tree.
Parameter
Price of carbon trade: according to the current
price in international market
cost: the cost of forestations
Output
The whole benefit: includes cost and profit
Risk: analysis in economy for investment in a
carbon sequestration project
C.Methodology of Modeling with Mathematics for Models
What those models have use with mathematics for modeling includes multivariate statistical analysis and Analysis of Multiple Linear Regression. At this case, we supposed that four matrixes of variable, that are the growth quantity called Τ, affecting factor of climate designed as Α, terrain named Η and environment called Ε. Firstly, we have established a weight matrix called Ω between Τ and those affecting factors by statistical analysis. Next, through an analysis of linear regression, we try to find the linear formula between T and a series of affecting factors {A,H,E},which form is shown below.
Τ=Ξ ? Ο ? Ω+Β (1) Ο——a matrix of automatic variable{A,H,E}
Ξ——a matrix of undetermined coefficients
Β——a constant
The last form of this formula for carbon sequestration forecasting is like this.
Χ=Κ ? Τ ? σ ?≥τ (2) Χ——the total carbon sequestration during a period at some zone
Κ——a constant that is used to convert between carbon sequestration and growth quantity
σ——a area of selecting land block`
≥τ——a time span(one day as an unit)
Those mathematics methods using in modeling and their correlationship may be displayed like that in figure 2
Figure 2. The mathematical methods and application in this modeling
D.Methodology of Geo-spatial Modeling for Models
Geo-spatial modeling is an integrating application of spatial interpolation, geo-statistics and raster calculating, which most important function is to get all of the geo-spatial affecting factors. Spatial interpolation mainly provides a series of tools that get the parameters such as climate factors and partly terrain factors. And Geo-statistics is used to obtain most of terrain factors like aspect, slope and altitude, etc. Finally, raster calculating could gain some special parameters, for example, land-position, wash and basin of stream.
III.T HE I NTEGRATION M ETHOD OF M ODELS WITH GIS
The integration issue of application models with GIS has always been one of the most important research hot spots in GIS application fields since 1980s. Generally speaking, there are three aspects technical work needed to be done for solving the model integration problems, which include data management (as acquisition, processing, storage and
organization) work, model computing (as application analysis) work, as well as model output (mainly focused on the simulated results display and express spatially and graphically) work. In the practices of application model integration with GIS, the method of integration is usually selected by specific application requirements due to different integration application environments. There is still not an unified way of integration in the practical spatial analysis tasks. Because of the flexibility of COM GIS technology, COM based integration method of GIS with carbon sequestration models has become the present popular and feasible way of model integration in spatial decision support system development although model base is the more idea scheme for model management and intelligent processing. Based on the analysis for the parameters of carbon sequestration model equations, It is easily to note that the parameters of these models are not directly related to the geographical locations, which has resulted in the problems for model integration with GIS. By using the COM Integration method of model with GIS, the model data management, model computing and modeling result output functions may be well integrated in a flexible software framework. In the model data management aspect, not only the high resolution remote sensing images and vector graphic data may be effectively stored uniformly, but also the model input parameters may also be stored in the spatial database in attribute data form, which can offer a better data interface for model computing by using the spatial data management technology of GIS. In model computing aspect, the mathematical model may be integrated into GIS platform by using COM technology from which the forest spatial information systems will be of decision support functions. The model computing resulting will then be stored into the same forest spatial database with graphic data and the modeling analysis results will be easily connected to geographical locations. Meanwhile, the modeling simulated results may also be spatially visualized in geographic distribution patterns. The system integration principles may be displayed as that in Figure 3.
Figure 3. The Integration Framework of COM GIS with Carbon
Sequestration Models
IV.D ESIGN AND E XPERIMENT
A.The General Structure of Systems
As what has been discussed in the context, there are many geo-spatial factors that will be used in modeling. Therefore, how to get those factors easily and efficiently is a big problem. We are very lucky ,whereas, that GIS software like ArcGIS is advantageous to carry out that work. ArcGIS is a powerful GIS software developed by ESRI, which functions include geo-spatial data management, map displaying and controlling, especially spatial analysis such as 3D Analysis, Georeference and raster calculating, ect. As a result, ArcGIS software have supported the functions of the confirming tool of models in this case. The structure of systems is shown as follows in figure 4.
Figure 4. The general structure of systems for model tool We can learn from the below graph that ArcSDE is responsible for the geo-spatial data management, which also could be accessed by ADO or ODBC. And furthermore, the client is developed with ArcObjects, which is a COM package of ArcGIS for second developing that has the same function as ArcGIS desktop. All the structure is popular and strong when using in this modeling. Figure 5 and Figure 6 are the capturing pictures of experiment for this case.
B.The Technology for Implement
TABLE I. T HE M AJOR T ECHNOLOGIES U SED TO I MPLEMENT
C ONFIRMING T OOL
Alias Technology Explanation Developing
Framework
C/S
General structure
for developing
Developing
Method
COM/DCOM,ActiveX Implementing Developing
Tool
Visual Basic6.0
The software used
to implement COM Supporting
Platform
ArcObjects9.2
GIS Service
software
Running
Platform
ArcGIS9.2 or
ArcEngine Runtime
Client Service
software
Database
Service
MS SQL Server20
00 + ArcSDE9.2
Database manager
software
Forest GDB
SQL Server
Other DB
SQL Server
ArcGIS9.2
ArcView
ArcEdit
ArcInfo
Database Service
ArcSDE9.2
ODBC/ADO Carbon Trade
Display,Query
Statistics,Analysis
Model Calculate
Decision
Client：
Data Management
LAN
Figure 5. Getting land-position for models
Figure 6. Implement and result of model
V.C ONCLUSION
In this text, we have discussed the conception of geo-spatial model of evaluating for carbon sequestration Capacity, as well as it’s modeling method. How to establish the mathematical model and how to integrate with GIS are also expounded. And as a result, a validating tool based on ArcGIS and it’s COM library ArcObjects has been given as an experiment for this geo-spatial modeling. However, this experiment is just a practice in theory of modeling, it’s result has no stronger evidence to prove the validity of those models in modeling with Geo-spatial method, because that has to expend a much long time to find a real and feasible carbon sequestration
project to practice the models and simulate the modeling.
A CKNOWLEDGMENT.
I would like to express my gratitude to all those who help
me during the writing of this thesis. A special acknowledgement should be shown to my tutor professor Kun Yang, from whom I benefited greatly. I am particularly indebted to my wife Junhua Yi, who gave me kind encouragement and useful instructions all through my writing. Finally I wish to extend my thanks to the library assistants who supplied me with reference materials of great value.
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