摘要
改革开放以来，我国城市经济依靠投资、出口、消费取得了突飞猛进的发展，而投资是其中最主要的推动力。由于我国金融行业起步较晚，发展程度较西方发达国家略低，再加上企业上市监管严格、限制条件较多，相较于直接融资，银行贷款成为我国企业发展最主要的融资方式。通过大量查阅文献与搜集相关数据发现，银行贷款投放总额的变动规律与城市经济增长的变动规律呈现相似性，那么银行贷款对城市经济增长是否有影响、二者之间是否存在正向相关性以及它们之间的因果联系是本文研究的重点内容。如果证实二者之间存在正向促进作用，那么这一结论将有较强的现实指导意义，政府与银行可以通过适当调整信贷投放来促进城市经济的发展。
本文在国内外专家学者的研究基础上，进一步研究与探讨银行贷款与中国城市经济发展的内在联系。首先，本文综合阐述了这一课题的研究背景、研究意义以及国内外研究现状，并简要介绍本文在研究这一课题时所采用的理论与模型；其次，本文重点阐述了银行贷款与中国城市经济发展的现状，主要从宏观上介绍银行和银行贷款在中国的出现与发展，以及目前银行贷款结构的现状，同时将以实例具体阐述中国城市经济增长现状；第三，本文回顾了经济增长与银行信贷的相关理论知识，主要包括经济增长理论，银行贷款理论以及金融发展理论中金融中介与经济增长理论；第四，本文介绍了银行贷款与经济增长的实证分析，利用1980-2016年东部发达城市上海与西部欠发达城市乌鲁木齐的银行贷款数据与经济增长数据，分别建立两个城市银行贷款总额与城市GDP总额的时间序列，对单个序列进行单位根检验，使其符合平稳性要求，通过协整检验发现变量符合协整性要求，说明其满足长期均衡关系，接着通过格兰杰因果检验，分析变量间的因果分配
，最后依据建模分析结果，得出该研究课题的结论及建议。
本文的主要结论包括：（1）上海市与乌鲁木齐市的银行贷款总额与城市GDP总额之间存在着正向相关性，且该关系长期稳定，具体表现为扩大银行信贷规模能促进城市GDP总额的显著增长。（2）银行信贷的增长是促进城市经济发展的原因，且具有一定的滞后性，但是城市经济增长对银行信贷的反作用不是很明显。
关键词：银行贷款；城市经济；平稳检验；协整检验；因果分析
Abstract
Since the reform and opening up, the urban economy in our country has achieved rapid development by relying on investment, exports and consumption. The most important force is investment. Because the financial industry in our country started relatively late and its development level is not high compared with the developed countries in western countries. The companies to be listed is not easy. The bank loan has become the most important financing method in our country which far exceeds the direct financing method. Through a large number of references and collecting relevant data, we can know that the regulation of the total amount of bank loans is similar to the regulation of urban economic growth, and there is a positive correlation between bank loans and urban economic growth and the causal link between them is the important part of research. If it is confirmed that there is a positive promotion between them, then this conclusion will have far-reaching practical significance. The government and the banking sector can promote the development of the urban economy by expanding credit distribution.
Based on the research of experts and scholars both at home and abroad, this paper further studies and explores the intrinsic relationship between bank loans and urban economic development in China. First of all, this article comprehensively elaborates the research background, the significance of the research and the current research situation at home and abroad, and briefly introduces the theory and model used in the study of this subject. Secondly, this article focuses on the relationship between bank loans and urban economy in China which will mainly introduce the appearance and development of bank and bank loans in China from the macroscopic view and the current status of bank loan structure. At the same time, it will concretely explain the current situation of urban economic growth in China with examples. Thirdly, this paper reviews the relationship between economic growth and the related theoretical knowledge of bank credit, including economic growth theory, bank loan theory and financial
development theory of financial intermediary and economic growth theory; Fourth, this paper introduces the bank loans and economic growth of empirical analysis by using 1980-2016 developed eastern Urban Shanghai’s and western less developed Urban
Wulumuqi’s bank loan data and economic growth data to establish two cities total bank loans and urban GDP total time series respectively. We test the single sequence unit root to verify the stationary and through unsteady Sequence differential processing to make it consistent with the requirements of stability. Under these conditions, the cointegration test was conducted, and the variables were found to meet the cointegration requirements through tests, indicating that they meet the long-term equilibrium relationship, then correct error, explore the short-term volatility between sequences, finally, through Grand Jay causal test to analyze the causal distribution of variables; Fifth, based on the results of modeling analysis, this paper draws the conclusion of the research topic, and makes a reasonable evaluation of the model. Finally, based on the conclusion, we make reasonable suggestions to the bank loan.
Through a series of studies, the conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) There is a positive correlation between the total bank loans in Shanghai and Urumqi and the total urban GDP, and the long-term stability of the relationship is manifested in the expansion of bank credit scale promote significant growth in total urban GDP. (2) The growth of bank credit is the reason to promote the urban economic development, and has some lag, but the reaction of urban economic growth to bank credit is not obvious.