13Breeding Strategies to Adapt Crops to a Changing Climate
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气候对牧业的影响英语作文Climate change has a significant impact on thelivestock industry. The changing weather patterns and extreme weather events caused by climate change can disrupt the availability of food and water for livestock. This can lead to a decrease in livestock productivity and health.Livestock animals rely on a stable and predictable climate for their survival. However, with climate change, there is an increased risk of droughts, floods, and heatwaves. These extreme weather events can destroy pastures and crops, making it difficult for livestock to find sufficient food. Additionally, the scarcity of water during droughts can lead to dehydration and malnutrition among livestock.Furthermore, the changing climate can also affect the health of livestock. Warmer temperatures can create a favorable environment for the spread of diseases and parasites. Livestock animals may become more susceptible toinfections and illnesses, leading to a decrease in their overall productivity.In addition to the direct impact on livestock, climate change can also affect the quality and availability of animal feed. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns can alter the growth and nutrient content of crops and forage. This can result in a decrease in thenutritional value of feed, affecting the health and growth of livestock.Moreover, climate change can also affect the breeding and reproductive patterns of livestock. Changes in temperature and weather conditions can disrupt the mating and birthing cycles of animals. This can lead to a decrease in the number of offspring and a decline in the overall population of livestock.Overall, climate change poses significant challenges to the livestock industry. The unpredictable weather patterns and extreme events can disrupt the availability of food and water, affect the health and productivity of livestock, andimpact the quality and availability of animal feed. It is crucial for the livestock industry to adapt and implement strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change and ensure the sustainability of the industry.。
全球气候变化对粮食生产的影响与适应考研英语作文范文The Impact of Global Climate Change on Food Production and AdaptationIn recent years, global climate change has become a pressing issue that poses significant challenges to food production worldwide. The adverse effects of the changing climate, including rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events, are already being witnessed in various regions around the globe. This essay aims to explore the impact of global climate change on food production and discuss potential strategies for adaptation.Firstly, rising temperatures have a direct impact on crop yields. High temperatures can lead to heat stress in plants,negatively affecting their growth and productivity. Crops such as wheat, maize, and rice are particularly vulnerable to temperature extremes. Studies have shown that a 1-degree Celsius increase in temperature during the growing season can result in a decline of 3-5% in wheat and rice yields. As global temperatures continue to rise, it is expected that crop productivity will be significantly reduced, leading to potential food shortages.Secondly, altered precipitation patterns due to climate change also pose challenges to food production. Some regions may experience increased rainfall, leading to waterlogging, soil erosion, and increased incidence of pests and diseases. On the other hand, other areas may face droughts and reduced water supplies, affecting crop growth and yield. For example, in regions heavily dependent on rainfall for agriculture, such as sub-Saharan Africa, decreased precipitation could lead to crop failures and increased food insecurity.Furthermore, global climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, typhoons, and floods. These events can cause significant damage to crops, livestock, and infrastructure, disrupting food production and distribution systems. In addition to physical damage, extreme weather events can also result in post-harvest losses and increased food waste due to transportation and storage difficulties. Consequently, the effects of these events can have long-lasting implications for food availability and accessibility.To adapt to the impact of global climate change on food production, various strategies can be employed. Firstly, there is a need for improved crop breeding and agronomic practices that enhance resilience and tolerance to higher temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. Research and development in drought-tolerant and heat-tolerant crop varieties can help mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on yields.Furthermore, investment in irrigation infrastructure and water management technologies is crucial to ensure water availability for agriculture, particularly in regions proneto droughts. Drip irrigation, rainwater harvesting systems, and improved water storage facilities can contribute to more efficient water use and reduce dependence on rainfall.Additionally, promoting sustainable and climate-smart agricultural practices can help enhance resilience and minimize greenhouse gas emissions. Practices such as conservation agriculture, agroforestry, and organic farming can improve soil health, reduce soil erosion, and enhance carbon sequestration. Moreover, adopting precision farming techniques that utilize data and technology to optimize crop management can improve resource efficiency and reduce environmental impacts.Lastly, strengthening global cooperation and implementing international policies to combat climate change are essential.Countries need to work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, promote renewable energy sources, and adapt to the consequences of climate change. International collaborations can provide support for developing countries in implementing adaptation strategies and ensure equitable access to resources and expertise.In conclusion, global climate change poses significant challenges to food production due to rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events. These impacts have the potential to result in reduced crop yields, food shortages, and increased food insecurity. However, through the adoption of adaptation strategies such as improved crop varieties, water management techniques, sustainable agricultural practices, and global cooperation, it is possible to mitigate the effects of climate change and ensure food security for future generations.。
高二环境保护英语阅读理解25题1<背景文章>Global warming is one of the most pressing issues of our time, having a profound impact on the Earth's ecosystems. Sea - level rise is a significant consequence of global warming. As the Earth's temperature increases, glaciers and ice caps are melting at an alarming rate. This melting ice contributes to the rise in sea levels. For low - lying islands and coastal regions, this is a catastrophic threat. Many small islands are in danger of being completely submerged, displacing countless communities.The increase in temperature also disrupts the climate patterns. Extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall are becoming more frequent and intense. Heatwaves can cause widespread damage to crops, leading to food shortages. Droughts parch the land, making it difficult for plants and animals to survive. On the other hand, excessive rainfall can lead to floods, which can destroy habitats and infrastructure.Species extinction is another tragic result of global warming. Many species have very specific environmental requirements for their survival. As the climate changes, their habitats are altered or destroyed. For example, polar bears rely on sea ice for hunting and breeding. With the reduction insea ice due to global warming, their survival is at risk. Similarly, many species of plants and animals in coral reefs are facing extinction as the warmer waters cause coral bleaching, destroying their homes.In conclusion, global warming is a complex and far - reaching problem that is causing significant damage to the Earth's ecosystems. Urgent action is needed to mitigate its effects and protect the delicate balance of life on our planet.1. What is one of the main causes of sea - level rise according to the article?A. More rainfallB. The melting of glaciers and ice capsC. Human activities near the coastD. Stronger ocean currents答案:B。
第四届“QTL作图和育种模拟研讨会”,2009年8月18-20日,山东泰安育种模拟的原理和遗传模拟工具QuLineCIMMYT’s headquarter in MexicoDr. Borlaug and green revolution ¾¾¾¾¾¾¾Mexico CityEl BatanToluca, 19º N, 2640 masl.High rainfall (800-900 mm)Cd. Obregon, 27º N, 39 masl. 8-11 t/ha under irrigation; 1-2t/ha under reduced irrigationCIMMYT’s Shuttle breedingMay to NovemberBreeding methods with self-pollinated cropsBreeding methods in CIMMYT’s wheat breeding program¾¾¾About 40% ofafter F7About 30% of the crosses are discarded in F1About 20% ofof yield trialsWhy do we need tools in breeding?¾¾¾••••Why do we need tools in breeding?¾¾Questions that can be studied by QuLine: A genetic and breeding simulation tool 1.2.3.4.Questions that can be studied by QuLine (mainly for inbred line development) 5.6.QuLine: A simulation tool for genetics and breeding¾QU-GENE (QUantitative GENEtics)A simulation platform for quantitative analysis of genetic models, developed byThe University of Queensland, Australia¾QuCim (funded by GRDC 2000-2004)A QU-GENE application breeding simulation module, specifically designed forCIMMYT’s wheat breeding programsSimulate most breeding programs for developing inbred linesVersion 1.1 released on July, 2003 (Workshop in Brisbane, Australia)More than 100 global requests for QuCim 1.1¾Renamed as QuLine (currently funded by GCP, H+, and Research Programs of China, i.e. 973, 863, and NSF)Landscape representation of a complex GE system (the real GE system is multi-dimensional)What can QuLine do?¾¾¾¾In genetics(implemented by the QU-GENE engine)¾¾¾¾In breeding (implemented by the QuLine module)How does QuLine work?¾•(= input for QuLine•(= input for QuLine(= input for QuLineDefine the QMP file for the selected bulk selection method: an exampleGeneral simulation parameters¾¾¾¾General simulation parameters ¾¾¾¾¾The number of models in the GE system and the number of runs for breeding strategy¾•9»¾Parameters to describe aset of breeding strategies¾¾Definition of a generation ¾¾¾Practical breeding small plot evaluation atVirtual breedingF6F7F8 (T), F8 (B)F8 (YT)F8 small plotFamilies selected14,760 3,8683,868 2,163 1,9741,974 779779An example for seed source indicator 0Bulk in F3 PYEI, F4PYEII, F5Pedigree in F4Families selected 4000 12001200 600600 100100 1000An example (LRC, Toowoomba, Australia) for seed source indicator 1Definition of each selection round¾¾Definition of each selection round ¾pedigree:bulk:Definition of each selection round¾••Definition of each selection round ¾•••9T for top, e.g. yield, tillering, grains per spike and 1000-kernel weight9B for bottom, e.g. lodging and rusts9M for middle, e.g. height and heading9R for random, for some special studies9Roundsof selectionSeedsourceindicatorGenerationtitleSeedpropagationtypeGenerationadvancemethodReplicationsPlotsizeTestlocationsEnvironmenttype10F6self pedigree175012, Toluca 40F7self bulk17011, Obregon F8(T)self bulk17012, TolucaF8(B)self bulk17013, El BatanF8(YT)self bulk110011, Obregon 10F8(SP)self bulk13011, Obregon An example of generation definitionTraitYieldLodg-ingStem rustLeaf rustStripe rustHeightTilleringHeadingGrains per spike1000 kernel weightTotalSelection mode T B B B B M T M T TF6, among 0.990.960.950.90F6, within 0.900.700.900.950.980.100.05F7, among 0.850.700.980.850.960.700.750.25F8(T), among 0.550.700.990.980.990.900.55F8(B), among 0.900.90F8(YT), among 0.400.40Traits, their selection modes andselected proportionsSteps to run QuLineBreeding strategiesGE systemPopulationInput information about the GxE system and populationsQUGENEQuLine*.fit*.var*.fre*.ham*.cro*.his*.rog*.pou *.fixMajor outputs from QuLineWhat has been done using QuLine?¾Crop Science(2003)¾Crop Science(2004)¾Aust. J. Agri. Sci.(2005)¾Crop Science(2007)Comparison of two breeding strategies: modified pedigree (MODPED) andselected bulk (SELBLK)Breeding methods with self-pollinated cropsBreeding methods in CIMMYT’s wheat breeding program¾¾¾methodsTrait, segregating gene number, gene effects and trait heritabilityTrait Genes Gene effecttypeAA Aa aa Trait range h b2(Indiv. plant)Yield20, 40E0, E1, E2Random value from UD (0, 1)0.05 Lodging3additive05100-300.10 Stem rust5additive00.510-50.30 Leaf rust5additive05100-500.30 Yellow rust5additive05100-500.30 Height3additive403020120-600.45 Tillers/plant 3additive53115-30.35 Heading5additive201612100-600.30 Grains/spike5additive1410670-300.35Trait correlation and pleiotropyTraitYieldLodgingStem rustLeaf rust YellowrustHeightTillers/plantHeadingGrains/spikeSeed weightYield-0.50-0.20-0.10-0.10-0.500.400.300.500.40Lodging-0.56Stem rust-0.25Leaf rust-0.05Yellow rust-0.09Height-0.62Tillers/plant-0.08-0.20-0.40Heading0.60Grains/spike 0.09-0.17-0.30Seed weight-0.07-0.30-0.07Estimated by CIMMYT breedersEstimated from the defined genetic modelExperiment design¾12 Genotype and environment (GE) systems¾Initial population¾¾Result 1: Genetic gain in yield from SELBLK is 3.3% higher than MODPED. SELBLK is slightly more efficient.For gains per spike and 1000-kernel weight, SELBLK has a faster genetic gain. For tillers/plant, MODPED has a faster genetic gain.Result 2: SELBLK retained 25% more crosses in the final selected population (more genetic diversity retained)Result 3: SELBLK required 1/3 less land from F1 to F8 than MODPED. SELBLK is more cost-effective.Result 4: SELBLK produced 40% less families (plots) to be planted from F1 to F8 (less labor required)Modeling of the Single Backcrossing Breeding Strategy(SBBS)(Theor. Appl. Genet., 2009, 118: 683-694)Category% favorablegenes Example% totalparentallinesElite adapted lines (EAL)80-85Major released cultivars in targeted mega-environments (MEs) either developed byCIMMYT or by partners10Adapted lines (AL)75-80Elite advanced lines from CIMMYT’sInternational Nursery and Yield Trials60Intermediate adapted lines (IAL)65-75Advanced lines from CIMMYT’s Yield Trialsin Ciudad Obregón and Toluca, Mexico10Un-adapted (or non-adapted) lines (UAL)20-40Land races 2Second generation of re-synthesized wheat (SYNII)40-60Derived lines between the first generation ofre-synthesized wheat derivatives andadapted lines10First generation of re-synthesized wheat (SYNI)20-40Derived lines between primary re-synthesized wheat and adapted lines5Estimated percentages of favourable alleles or gene combinations in different parental lines in wheat breeding at CIMMYTTwo traits defined in QU-GENE •––––•–––。
翻译二级口译实务-环境保护(Environmental Protection)(总分:200.00,做题时间:90分钟)一、{{B}}英译汉{{/B}}(总题数:4,分数:100.00)1.{{B}} Passage 1{{/B}} To me, the most interesting and immediate question is not whether the United States will ratify the Kyoto Protocol, but whether other parties are prepared to work toward that goal. The next few months will determine whether other patties choose an agreement on their terms without the United States, or whether they prefer an agreement that may require some compromise of ideological positions, but will in fact be effective and will include the United States. // I believe the EU and others, for a number of reasons, will conclude that its interests and those of the environment lie in crafting an agreement that the United States can support. The United States accounts for approximately 25% of global industrial emissions. Any agreement that excludes the United States will not control global warming. In addition, European businesses may wonder why they are asked to assume significant new climate change obligations if U.S. competitors are not going to be subject to roughly the same rules. // I might note two additional factors relevant here: first, the idea of emissions trading is growing in popularity in capitals on the continent, and also in London and Brussels. Second, economists are warning that few countries, with the notable exception of the United Kingdom, are on track to meet their Kyoto commitments. I am hopeful that these forces will allow governments at COP-6 to mold the Protocol into a sensible, practical shape, one which the United States can support. // Let me say a word more about developing country's participation because this is an area where the United States is frequently misunderstood. The undeniable fact is that climate change is a global problem that requires a global solution. To be sure, industrialization in the North contributed enormously to increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Developed countries, including the Untied States, must take significant steps immediately. // Acting alone, however, developed countries cannot stabilize global greenhouse gas concentrations. From a scientific standpoint, meaningful participation by key developing countries is a necessity. Several large developing countries will soon become the world's leading emitters. Developing countries already produce 44% of global fossil fuel emissions. In addition, developing countries are responsible for a disproportionate share of deforestation and other land-use practices that have raised carbon concentrations. // Per capita energy intensity ratios in some, not all, developing countries continue to rise briskly, despite the existence of clean technologies that were not invented when developed countries were industrialized. In the immediate future, 80% of new electric power generation projects will occur in developing countries. All of us want those projects to use the latest cutting edge technologies. // I mention these facts not to bicker about past or future responsibility, for that detracts from our common cause of halting global warming, but to highlight the need for all countries to be a part of the solution. // In a very real sense, developing countries have the most to gain from an effective Protocol in which all the industrialized countries participate. For developing countries, unfortunately, have the least capacity to adapt to climate change. The longer we wait, the harder it will be to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at acceptable levels and the harder these countries will be hit. // The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change points the way: each nation should take national and international steps commensurate with its capacity to contribute to the global solution based on the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities". // Many developing countries have taken significant unilateral action already. China, for example, has sought to conserve energy and reduce emissions growth while simultaneously raising living standards dramatically. Without price reforms and energy efficiency gains, China's emissions would be more than 50% higher than they are now. // We recognize, moreover, that some developing countries may lack the capacity to assume and implement legally binding emissionstargets at this time. For these countries, other types of action would be appropriate at present. All developing countries should explore opportunities under the Clean Development Mechanism, adopt sound national policies on energy and land use, and pursue other climate-friendly measures under the Framework Convention. // The negotiating histories of both the Framework Convention and Kyoto Protocol demonstrate general agreement on the need to mitigate climate change while allowing for continued economic growth. The Untied States believes this formula remains the key to securing developing country action. Developing countries are finding in the Kyoto Protocol avenues to pursue their development and environmental goals simultaneously. There is a growing recognition of the potential of the Clean Development Mechanism to direct advanced technology and major capital flows to the developing world. // (Excerpts from "Under Secretary of State Loy on Kyoto Protocol" made by former Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs Frank E. Loy to American Bar Association Conference)(分数:25.00)__________________________________________________________________________________________ 正确答案:()解析:对我来说,最关心和最迫切的问题不是美国能否批准《京都议定书》,而是其他参与国是否会朝这个目标努力。
英语作文-可持续农业发展政策与措施Sustainable Agriculture Development Policies and Measures。
Introduction。
Sustainable agriculture is crucial for ensuring food security, environmental health, and economic viability. Governments worldwide are increasingly recognizing the importance of implementing effective policies and measures to promote sustainable agricultural practices. This article explores various policies and measures aimed at fostering sustainable agriculture development.Policy Frameworks for Sustainable Agriculture。
Governments play a pivotal role in establishing policy frameworks that incentivize and regulate sustainable agricultural practices. One of the key strategies involves providing subsidies and financial support to farmers who adopt sustainable farming methods such as organic farming, agroforestry, and integrated pest management. These subsidies can offset the initial costs associated with transitioning to sustainable practices and encourage widespread adoption among farmers.Furthermore, regulatory frameworks are essential for ensuring compliance with environmental standards and sustainable practices. Governments can impose regulations on pesticide use, water management, soil conservation, and biodiversity protection to mitigate the negative impacts of agriculture on ecosystems. By enforcing these regulations through monitoring and penalties, governments can promote responsible agricultural practices that minimize environmental degradation.Education and Knowledge Sharing。
全文分为作者个人简介和正文两个部分:作者个人简介:Hello everyone, I am an author dedicated to creating and sharing high-quality document templates. In this era of information overload, accurate and efficient communication has become especially important. I firmly believe that good communication can build bridges between people, playing an indispensable role in academia, career, and daily life. Therefore, I decided to invest my knowledge and skills into creating valuable documents to help people find inspiration and direction when needed.正文:外研版英语八上野生动物的作文题目全文共3篇示例,供读者参考篇1Wild AnimalsAnimals are some of the most fascinating creatures on our planet. From the mighty elephant to the tiny shrew, each species has unique traits and behaviors that allow them to survive in thewild. In this essay, I will explore the world of wild animals, discussing their habitats, adaptations, and the threats they face due to human activities.One of the most striking things about wild animals is the diversity of habitats they occupy. Some animals, like polar bears, thrive in the harsh Arctic environment, while others, such as tigers, roam the dense jungles of Asia. Each habitat presents its own set of challenges, and the animals that live there have evolved specific adaptations to cope with these challenges.For instance, camels are well-adapted to living in the desert, with their ability to go for long periods without water and their thick fur coats that protect them from the scorching sun. On the other hand, penguins have waterproof feathers and a layer of insulating fat that helps them survive in the freezing Antarctic waters.Adaptations are not limited to physical features; many animals also exhibit remarkable behavioral adaptations. One such example is the migration patterns of certain bird species, which travel thousands of miles each year in search of food and breeding grounds. The Arctic tern, for instance, holds the record for the longest migration, flying an astonishing 44,000 miles annually between the Arctic and Antarctic regions.Another fascinating aspect of wild animals is their social structures and communication methods. Wolves, for example, live in tightly-knit family groups called packs, with a strict hierarchy and intricate ways of communicating through body language, vocalizations, and scent marking. Similarly, elephants have complex social bonds and use a range of low-frequency rumbles to communicate over long distances.Despite their remarkable adaptations and intricate social systems, many wild animal populations are facing severe threats due to human activities. Habitat loss, caused by deforestation, urbanization, and climate change, is one of the most significant challenges. As their natural habitats shrink, animals are forced to compete for dwindling resources, leading to declining populations and, in some cases, extinction.Poaching, the illegal hunting and trading of wild animals, is another major threat. The demand for ivory, traditional medicine, and exotic pets has driven many species, such as elephants, rhinos, and pangolins, to the brink of extinction. The illegal wildlife trade not only threatens the survival of these animals but also contributes to the spread of diseases and the disruption of ecosystems.Climate change is also having a profound impact on wild animal populations. Rising temperatures, sea levels, and extreme weather events are altering habitats and disrupting food chains, making it increasingly difficult for some species to adapt and survive.Fortunately, there are efforts being made to protect wild animals and their habitats. Conservation organizations, governments, and local communities are working together to establish protected areas, implement sustainable practices, and raise awareness about the importance of preserving biodiversity.One such initiative is the creation of wildlife corridors, which allow animals to move freely between fragmented habitats, reducing the risk of inbreeding and ensuring genetic diversity. Another promising approach is the reintroduction of species into their former habitats, such as the successful reintroduction of the black-footed ferret in the United States after it was once declared extinct in the wild.篇2Wild Animals: Our Responsibility to ProtectAs a student who cares deeply about the environment, the topic of wild animals is one that resonates strongly with me. Inour rapidly changing world, it's more important than ever to understand the challenges facing these incredible creatures and to take action to protect them. Through this essay, I hope to shed light on the plight of wild animals and inspire others to join the fight to preserve their habitats and ensure their survival for generations to come.To begin, let's consider the harsh realities that many wild animal species face today. Habitat loss, due to human activities such as deforestation, urbanization, and agricultural expansion, is one of the most significant threats. As we encroach upon their natural homes, countless animals are left without the resources they need to survive, leading to dwindling populations and, in some cases, extinction. The impact of climate change on ecosystems further exacerbates this issue, disrupting delicate food chains and altering the very environments that wild animals have adapted to over millions of years.Another pressing concern is the illegal wildlife trade, a multi-billion-dollar industry that threatens numerous species, from elephants and rhinos to pangolins and exotic birds. Fueled by greed and a disregard for the sanctity of life, this trade not only decimates animal populations but also contributes to thespread of zoonotic diseases and disrupts the ecological balance of entire regions.But it's not just the large, charismatic species that are at risk; even the smallest and seemingly insignificant creatures play vital roles in maintaining the intricate web of life on our planet. Bees, for instance, are responsible for pollinating a vast array of crops, and their declining numbers could have catastrophic consequences for global food production. Similarly, the loss of amphibian species, often overlooked but crucial indicators of environmental health, could signal broader ecosystem disturbances.As I delve deeper into this subject, I can't help but feel a profound sense of sadness and urgency. These wild animals, each with their own unique behaviors, adaptations, and roles in the natural world, are facing unprecedented challenges, and their very existence hangs in the balance. It's a sobering reality that should serve as a wake-up call for us all.However, amidst this seeming despair, there are glimmers of hope. Around the world, dedicated individuals and organizations are working tirelessly to protect wild animals and their habitats. From conservation efforts focused on specific species to broader initiatives aimed at preserving entire ecosystems, these heroesare making a tangible difference. Their work reminds us that, even in the face of daunting challenges, there is always the possibility for positive change.But the responsibility for safeguarding our planet's wild animals doesn't solely lie with these brave individuals and groups. We all have a role to play, no matter how small our contribution may seem. By making conscious choices in our daily lives, such as reducing our consumption of single-use plastics, supporting sustainable agriculture, and advocating for stronger environmental policies, we can collectively create a better future for these remarkable creatures.As a student, I believe that education is key to inspiring the next generation of environmental stewards. By learning about the intricate relationships between wild animals and their ecosystems, and by understanding the far-reaching consequences of our actions, we can cultivate a deeper appreciation and respect for the natural world. It's my hope that schools and universities will prioritize these important lessons, empowering young minds to become agents of change.In conclusion, the plight of wild animals is a complex and multifaceted issue, but one that we cannot afford to ignore. These creatures are not only篇3Wild and Free: Exploring the Fascinating World of WildlifeHave you ever stopped to marvel at the sheer diversity and magnificence of the creatures that roam our planet? From the vast savannas of Africa to the lush rainforests of the Amazon, the natural world is teeming with an incredible array of wild animals, each with its own unique behaviors, adaptations, and stories to tell. As a student fascinated by the wonders of nature, I cannot help but be captivated by these extraordinary beings that have existed long before humans walked the Earth.One of the animals that has always captured my imagination is the mighty African elephant. These gentle giants, with their massive size and endearing social bonds, are true icons of the wild. Watching them move in family herds, communicating through low rumbles and trumpets, is a humbling experience that reminds us of the intricate societies that exist beyond our own. Their intelligence and emotional depth are undeniable, as they mourn their dead, display empathy, and even exhibit behaviors akin to celebration. It is no wonder that many cultures revere these majestic creatures as symbols of strength, wisdom, and good luck.Yet, as awe-inspiring as the African elephant is, it is merely one thread in the tapestry of biodiversity that blankets our planet. The rainforests of South America, for instance, are home to a dazzling array of species, each playing a crucial role in the delicate ecosystem. From the vibrant plumage of the resplendent quetzal to the sleek agility of the jaguar, these creatures are living embodiments of nature's artistry. Observing their intricate behaviors, such as the cooperative hunting strategies of killer whales or the ingenious tool-use of primates, fills me with a sense of wonder and humility.However, it is not only the charismatic megafauna that deserves our attention and appreciation. The natural world is replete with creatures that may seem unassuming at first glance but possess extraordinary abilities and adaptations. Take, for instance, the unassuming monarch butterfly, whose incredible migration across continents has baffled scientists for centuries. Or the tiny but tenacious tardigrade, a microscopic organism capable of surviving in the harshest environments, from the depths of the ocean to the vacuum of space. These diminutive wonders remind us that nature's marvels often lie in the smallest and most unexpected places.As I delve deeper into the study of wild animals, I am continually struck by the delicate balance and interconnectedness of life on our planet. Each species, no matter how large or small, plays a vital role in maintaining the intricate web of ecosystems that sustain us all. The disappearance of even a single link in this chain can have far-reaching consequences, rippling through the entire biosphere like a pebble dropped into a still pond.It is this realization that has fueled my passion for conservation and environmental stewardship. As humans, we have an ethical responsibility to protect and preserve the natural habitats that these wild animals call home. Deforestation, poaching, and climate change are threats that loom large, endangering countless species and disrupting the delicate equilibrium of nature.Yet, amidst the challenges, there is hope. Through education, advocacy, and responsible actions, we can make a difference. By fostering a deeper appreciation for the wonders of the natural world and instilling a sense of wonder and respect in the hearts and minds of future generations, we can inspire change on a global scale.In conclusion, the world of wild animals is a vast and fascinating realm, full of mysteries waiting to be unraveled and lessons to be learned. Whether it is the majestic prowess of a lion or the intricate dance of a school of fish, these creatures are living reminders of the incredible diversity and resilience of life on our planet. As students and stewards of this remarkable world, it is our duty to cherish, protect, and learn from these wild and free inhabitants, for they are not only vital components of our ecosystems but also a source of inspiration and wonder that enriches our lives in ways we may never fully comprehend.。
湖南省炎德英才大联考2024届高三第二次诊断性检测试题英语试题文试卷注意事项:1.答卷前,考生务必将自己的姓名、准考证号填写在答题卡上。
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第一部分(共20小题,每小题1.5分,满分30分)1.—Why did you come by taxi?—My car broke down last week and I still it repaired.A.didn’t have B.hadn’t hadC.haven’t had D.won’t have2.Many of us see reading as an investment in ourselves,so it’s only natural that we want to learn something useful________ our efforts.A.in view of B.in response toC.in parallel with D.in return for3.Not having worked out the program, ________ leave the office.A.so he was forbidden to B.and he didn’t want toC.his little son couldn’t make him D.be couldn’t free himself to4.— He made an apology be blamed what he had done.— It's really wise of him.A.so as to not; of B.in order to not; forC.so as not to; for D.in order not to; of5.Like all parents in the world,we want you to grow up in a world __________ is full of love and kindness. A.where B.thatC.when D.what6.—Shall we put off the experiment till next week?—______, I don’t think our teacher will be happy with it.A.Never mind B.Sure, go aheadC.Y es, better not D.I’d rather not7.—What a pity! You missed my birthday party.—Terribly sorry!___________my uncle not visited me unexpectedly.A.Should B.WouldC.Had D.Did8.It rained this morning, _____ actually didn’t bother me because I like walking in the rain.A.what B.whenC.where D.which9.–Let’s take a coffee break, shall we?–I wish I ________, but I have a really tight schedule.A.can B.shall C.could D.should10.The dining room is clean and tidy, with a table already ______for a big meal.A. being laid B.laying C.to lay D.laid11.--- Are you free now? I have something interesting to tell you.---OK, you make it short I will have to work on this term paper due tomorrow.A.now that B.as soon asC.every time D.as long as12.In spring, the scene on the top of the hill is so appealing that it is ________ my words.A.above B.overC.beyond D.off13.一"Peter, have you got your new flat furnished?—Yes. I ______ some used furniture and it was a real bargain.A.will buy B.have bought C.bought D.had bought14.The incident turned him into different person, even if he did not realize it at beginning.A.a; a B.the; the C.the; a D.a; the15.______ what had happened, they knew I would struggle and simply wanted to help because it was the right thing to do.A.Hearing B.To have heard C.Having heard D.Heard16.China’s BeiDou Navigation Satellite System, whose positioning ________ will reach 2.5 meters by 2020, will soon provide services for more countries.A.accuracy B.categoryC.function D.reference17.Fortunately somebody who happened to be passing by called the emergency aid the traffic accident occurred. A.hurriedly B.quickly C.immediately D.shortly18.She seems to prefer American TV Shows to talking to me.A.to watch B.to be watching C.watching D.having watched19._______ a record-breaking seven Golden Globes, the musical La La Land surprisingly does not appeal to Chinese viewers.A.Winning B.WonC.Having won D.To win20.Many questions have been answered by John. He must have previewed the lessons last night, ____ he?A.needn’t B.hasn’t C.didn’t D.mustn’t第二部分阅读理解(满分40分)阅读下列短文,从每题所给的A、B、C、D四个选项中,选出最佳选项。
《作物育种学总论》习题Exercises in general introduction of crop breedingChapter 1 breeding objectives1.terms: breeding objectives, biological yield, economic yield, harvest index, plant breeding, breeding for high photosynthetic efficiency2.what are the basic requirements of modern agriculture for crop varieties?3.what are the principles for formulating breeding objectives?4.what are the main objectives of crop breeding?5., how can we correctly formulate a practical breeding target?6., why can crop yield increase through dwarf breeding?7., formulate a breeding target for a particular crop for a region you are familiar with and explain why.The seco nd chapter is the breed ing mode and varieties of cropsFloral structure and flowering habits of the wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans and other crops・ What are the floral structure and flowering habits conducive to cross pollination? What are thefloral structure and flowering habits conducive to self pollination?Combining the specific crops, the genetic effects of selfing and outcrossing were briefly described・What are the types of crops and what are the basic characteristics of them?What are the breeding characteristics of different types of populations?The third chapter, Germplasm Resources1.concepts: germplasm resources, origin centers, primary centers, secondary centers, native crops, secondary crops, genetic diversity centers, gene banks, primary gene pools, secondary gene pools, and three gene pools2.briefly describe the role of germplasm in crop breeding・3.briefly describe the characteristics and utilization value of local germplasm resources・4.briefly describe the characteristics and utilization value of foreign germplasm resources・What is the role of the theory of 5. Vavilov origin center in crop breeding?6.how to differentiate between primary and secondary centers?7.the main contents and identification methods of crop germplasm resources are discussed・8., what is the significance of establishing the crop gene pool? How to build a crop gene bank?9., what is the significance of establishing a database of crop germplasm resources? How to establish a database of crop germplasm resources?10.what is the necessity and significance of excavation, collection and preservation of germplasm resources?The fourth chapter is introduction and Domestication1.what are the concepts and basic principles of introduction and domestication?2.what are the factors affecting introduction and the law of introduction?The fifth chapter chooses breeding1.describe the basic principles and procedures of breeding・The sixth chapter is cross breeding1.types of cross breeding can be divided into two types according to their guiding ideology What are the respective genetic mechanisms?2.why is it the key to cross breeding to choose the parents correctly? What's the point?3., how to understand the four principles of parental selection in cross breeding?4., what are the advantages and disadvantages of using genetically diverse materials as parents? How do you understand the distance between parents and their parents?5.why should parents be highly cooperative?6.why is hybridization one of the most important factors that affect the success of cross breeding? What are the hybrid ways? How about the genetic proportion of each parent in single cross, three handed, four handed and double crosses? Why do you put the good agronomic parents on the last cross in the three and four crosses?7.explain genealogy, mixed method, derivative system method and single granule transmission method, and give a brief account of their respective work points. Compare their advantages and disadvantages and their applications・The seventh chapter is backcross breeding1.what is backcross breeding? What are the uses and limitations of backcross breeding? What is the most effective breeding in backcross breeding?2.what is a recurrent parent and a non recurrent parent? What roles do they play in backcross breeding? What problems should we pay attention to when choosing recurrent parents and non recurrent parents?What is the genetic effect of 3. backcross? What's the difference between selfing and genetic effects?4., the characters of dominant and recessive single gene control, as well as the backcross breeding process of quantitative characters were briefly described・The eighth chapter is the utilization of HeterosisThe 1. nouns explain heterosis, specific combining ability, test cross, test cross species, test species, one ring system, second ring system, gametophyte self incompatibility, sporophyte self incompatibility and cytoplasmic hybrid2.what are the approaches to utilize crop heterosis? What are the characteristics of each?3.what are the methods of measuring heterosis in crops? How to measure?FourPrinciples and reasons for selection of parents of hybrid varieties ・5.what are the basic conditions for utilizing crop heterosis? What types of crop hybrids are there in6.?What are the characteristics of crop heterosis in 7. crops?8.what are the main directions for the study of Heterosis in maize, rice, cotton, wheat and so on? Why?9.,what are the genetic causes of Heterosis in crops? What do you think of these interpretations?10.what methods are used to determine the combining ability? What are the characteristics of these methods?11.what is cytoplasmic cytoplasmic male sterility? How does this sterility utilize heterosis?12.what is the difference between sporophyte sterility and gametophyte? What are the characteristics of each?13.,there are several types of pollen abortion in male sterility What are the characteristics of each?14.what are the abnormal physiological and biochemical aspects of male sterility in plants?15., what are the conditions for the application of sterile lines?16.what methods can be used for the breeding of restorer lines?17.what principles should be followed in the selection of hybrid varieties? Why?18.how to identify the genetic type of genic male sterile material?How was the germplasm of 19. photoperiod and photoperiod induced male sterility obtained?The ninth chapter is mutation breeding1.what are the species, radiation sources, and major characteristics of the major physical mutagens?2.the materials of radiation mutation treatment and corresponding treatment methods are discussed・3.what are the irradiation intensity and dose intensity? What is its unit? How do you convert new and old units?4.how do you determine the optimum dose of radiation?5.what are the types, properties and principles of the main chemical mutagens? What problems should we pay attention to in using?6.how to determine the concentration and treatment time of chemical mutagens?7., what is the difference between mutation breeding and other breeding (such as cross breeding) in the treatment of future generations?8.why does mutation breeding require close planting in Ml?9.to illustrate the achievements of mutation breeding in Crop Genetics and breeding and agricultural production・10.what are the characteristics and trends of plant mutation breeding?The tenth chapter is distant hybridization breeding1.what is distant hybridization? What is the role and significance of distant hybridization in crop genetics, breeding and scientific research?2.the characteristics and difficulties of distant hybridization were discussed.3., try to explain the reasons for the incompatibility of distant hybridization and the ways to overcome it.4.hybrid sterility and why die? How to overcome?What is the difference between the isolation of 5. Distant Hybrids and that of interspecific hybridization?6.how to overcome the instability of distant hybridization progeny?What is the principle of induction of haploid in 7. distant crosses?8.what are alien addition lines and alien substitution lines?Can il be used directly in agricultural production? How to make use of it in Crop Genetics and breeding?9.to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of somatic hybridization.The eleventh chapter is ploidy breeding1.what are the main ways to induce polyploidy?2.what are the main ways of artificially inducing haploid?3.,the significance of ploidy breeding in plants was discussed・4.how does plant ploidy breeding combine with other breeding methods?5., six times triticale lacks D genome, poor quality of grain. How do you think it improved?The twelfth chapter is disease resistant breeding1., the main role of pest resistance breeding in modernagricultural production?2.. What are the physiological races, physiological, biological and differential hosts?3.what is the gene pair theory of genes?4.what is vertical resistance and horizontal resistance?5., the main links of breeding for disease resistant insects?6.how to maintain the stability of resistance to disease resistant varieties?The thirteenth chapter stress resistant breeding1.main species of crop adversity?2.. The meaning of drought resistanee and salt tolerance of crops?3.general procedures for crop stress resistance breeding?4.main methods of crop stress resistance identification?The fourteenth chapter, group improvement and recurrent choice1.,the concept and function of group improvement・2.principles of population improvement・3., the basic process and main link of population improvement・4., the similarities and differences between composite varietiesand synthetic varieties・5.how do we synthesize base populations for population improvement?6.,how does the recurrent selection approach the combination of population impTovement and breeding practice?SevenWhat are the recurrent selection methods within a population? What are the characteristics of each?8.,what are the similarities and differences between groups and groups?9., in what circumstances is it suitable to apply compound cycle selection?10.why into Recessive Genic Male sterile gene is based on recurrent selection of self pollination and cross pollinated crops?The fifteenth chapter is the experimental technique of crop breeding1.explain the concepts: marginal effects, growth competition, regional trials, varietal adaptability, and varietal stability2.what are the basic requirements for field trials? How can the test error be minimized?3.what are the factors that affect the design of a residential district? How do you deal with these factors?4.,how to overcome inter cell compelition?5.how do you conduct a line comparative test?6.what are the conditions for applying for a regional trial? What standards are you up to?7.how about regional test and production test?8.what are the methods and procedures for the stability parameterestimation using the average number of varieties as the parameter and the adaptive estimation method based on the environmental index?The sixteenth chapter, seed production and management1.what conditions should be applied for the varieties that have been applied for approval?2., what are the similarities and differences between China, Japan, the United States and European countries in their species management systems?What are the substantial and major causes of the 3. species,hybrid degradation? How to prevent?4.in China, self pollination and cross pollination often crop seed production method, the main differenee breeding method and cycle selection proposed in recent years strains breeding method and self propagation method mixed in technology is what?5.show three methods of producing two representative types of parent stock, and point out their substantive differences and their theoretical basis.6.what are the two methods for the production of inbred stock? What,s the difference between them?7.how to speed up breeding?How to select isolation zone in 8. parent breeding and hybrid seed production? How do you determine your parents, ratio?9.what is the key point in regulating the sowing date and ensuring the flowering time in hybrid seed production?Plant breeding, biotechnology, exercisesChapter 1 cell engineering and crop breeding1.what are the main ingredients of the culture medium?2.what is the genetic basis for somaclonal variation in somatic cells?3.how to breed new varieties by somatic cell cloning and variation?4.. What is the practical value of haploid cell culture in crop breeding?What is the difference between microspore development and normdl microspore development under 5. culture conditions?6.what are the factors that affect anther culture?7., how can cell engineering be used to overcome theincompatibility of distant hybridization?The second chapter, transgenic technology and crop breeding1.what is GM crop breeding? What are the contents of its research?2.. Advantages and disadvantages of transgenic breeding and their relationship with conventional breeding・3.procedures for breeding transgenic crops・4.what are the commonly used transgenic methods?5.what are the common methods for identification of transgenic plants?6.the mode and characteristics of exogenous gene integration.Causes and solutions of 7. gene silencing・8.isolation of foreign genes in transgenic plants・9.specific ways of breeding transgenic crops・10.biosafety principles of genetically modified crops.The third chapter is molecular marker assisted selection breeding1.types and genetic characteristics of several major molecular markers・2.订lustrate the principles and methods of gene mapping for important agronomic traits.3.how to understand the development of molecular marker technology and inject new vigor into crop breeding work?PAGEPAGE 5***[JimiSoft:, Unregistered, Software, Convert, Part, Of, File, Read, Help, To, Know, ONLY, How, To, Register.]***。
袁隆平培育杂交水稻英语作文Yuan Longping, a Chinese agronomist and educator, is renowned for his pioneering work in developing hybrid rice varieties. His groundbreaking research and dedication to improving agricultural practices have had a significant impact on global food production. In this essay, I will explore the contributions of Yuan Longping in cultivating hybrid rice and the implications of his work on the agricultural industry.Yuan Longping's interest in rice cultivation began in the 1960s when he started experimenting with hybrid rice varieties. Hybrid rice is a crossbreed of two different rice varieties, resulting in plants that exhibit higher yields and better resistance to pests and diseases. Yuan Longping's research focused on increasing rice productivity to address food shortages in China and other developing countries.One of Yuan Longping's most notable achievements is the development of the first high-yielding hybrid rice variety,known as IR8. This variety revolutionized rice production by doubling or tripling the yield compared to traditional rice varieties. The success of IR8 inspired further research and innovation in hybrid rice breeding, leading to the development of new varieties with even higher yields and improved quality.Yuan Longping's work has had a profound impact on global food security. By increasing rice yields, his hybrid varieties have helped to alleviate hunger and poverty in many regions of the world. In addition, the improved resistance of hybrid rice plants to pests and diseases has reduced the need for chemical pesticides, making rice production more environmentally sustainable.Furthermore, Yuan Longping's research has paved the way for advancements in agricultural science and technology. His innovative breeding techniques and genetic research have provided valuable insights into plant genetics and breeding strategies. The knowledge gained from his work has been instrumental in developing new hybrid varieties of other crops, contributing to increased crop yields and improved agricultural practices.In conclusion, Yuan Longping's contributions to the field of hybrid rice cultivation have been invaluable. His research has not only increased rice yields and improved food security but also advanced agricultural science and technology. As we continue to face challenges such as climate change and population growth, the legacy of Yuan Longping will continue to inspire future generations of researchers and farmers to innovate and strive for a more sustainable and productive agricultural future.。
177Abstract The main conclusions from recent global and regional assessments are reviewed, with an emphasis on China, India, Africa, and the United States. Most stud-ies have provided primarily “best-guess” point estimates, often supplemented with a few sensitivity analyses, but without a comprehensive measure of uncertainties. Although some useful lessons have been learned, most existing estimates of food secu-rity risks leave much to be desired. We explore these estimates, some of their strengths and weaknesses, and some additional opportunities for measuring uncertainties.10.1 I ntroductionThis book has focused on the theory and data behind models used to evaluate climate change impacts, rather than on the output of such models. In part this was because knowing the output of models is of little help without an understanding of the capa-bilities and limitations of the underlying models, and in part because the current pace of new research on applications of models is so rapid that a book devoted to this topic is sure to be outdated in a few years. Yet we recognize that a current summary of the literature will be useful to most readers, and so here provide a brief review of recent findings. For more exhaustive reviews, the readers are encouraged to consult recent assessments by various international groups (e.g., Easterling et al. 2007).As with any discussion of impacts, a useful starting point is to define the scale and variable of interest. As described in Chapter 2, most people in the world are net buyers of food, and consume diets dominated by the three main staples (rice, wheat, and maize). The prices of these commodities are therefore among the most relevant to food security. Most people also live in communities that trade beyond their local borders, in many cases with places across the globe. For this reason the price of food in given country often depends more on global supply and demand than on local production.A global perspective is therefore critical to assessing climate change impacts, even if one is interested in a single country (Reilly et al. 1994). Yet assessments forChapter 10Global and Regional AssessmentsDavid Lobell and Marshall BurkeD. Lobell and M. Burke (eds.), Climate Change and Food Security ,Advances in Global Change Research 37, DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-2953-9_10,© Springer Science + Business Media, B.V . 200D. Lobell ( ) and M. BurkeStanford University, CA, USA1178 D. Lobell and M. Burke individual regions or countries can still be useful, in two main ways. First, they allow more detailed study of local climate and crop changes that can feed into global assessments, which often have very rough estimates of regional yield responses.1 Second, they can focus on local adaptation options that would improve local yields in the face of climate change, regardless of global price changes. This chapter therefore addresses both global and regional studies.10.2 G lobal AssessmentsThe first major studies of global agricultural impacts began roughly 20 years ago, as agriculture was one of the first sectors for which impacts of climate change were thought to be important (Kane et al. 1992; Rosenzweig and Iglesias 1994; Rosenzweig and Parry 1994). Then, as now, these efforts focused on linking three basic modeling pieces that had been previously developed and applied indepen-dently: (1) models of climate response to higher CO 2; (2) models of crop yield responses to climate change, higher CO 2, and, in some cases, potential farmer adap-tations; and (3) models of adjustments in the world food economy in response to differential yield effects in different regions (Fig. 10.1). Some studies focused solely on changes in worldwide aggregate production and prices, while others also investi-gated changes in food security, typically measured by the number of malnourished.One of the first seminal assessments considered the global impacts of doubling CO 2 from pre-industrial levels (Rosenzweig and Parry 1994) by utilizing a network of crop modelers from around the world, who provided estimates of yield impacts from locally calibrated models for prescribed climate changes in over 100 sites in 18 countries. These site-level estimates were then used to infer national levelFig. 10.1 Outline of a common approach to estimating global impacts of climate change on food prices, production, trade, and hunger. Climate scenarios generated from climate models are used to drive crop yield models for individual locations. The simulated yield responses are then summed for different regions and input into a food trade model, which determines the equilibrium price for each commodity and the associated crop areas, yields, production, and trade for each region. The price changes are also often used to estimate the change in number of people at risk of hunger 1For example, yield changes in Rosenzweig and Parry (1994) were prescribed by interpolating results from crop model simulations at individual sites, of which the only sites in sub-Saharan Africa were for maize in Zimbabwe.17910 Global and Regional Assessments production changes for all cereals in all countries, based on similarities of agronomic characteristics among crops and agro-ecological environments among countries. The results were then aggregated into regional yield changes according to the regions defined in the Basic Linked System (BLS) model of agricultural trade.Figure 10.2 presents the yield changes used as input to BLS for the four major com-modity groups treated in that study: wheat, rice, coarse grains, and oilseeds. TheseThailandTurkeyUSA Oil Exporter High Inc.New ZealandNigeriaPakistanFormer USSR + Eastern EuropeKenyaLatin America High Inc. Cal. ExportersLatin America High Inc. Cal. ImportersLatin America Med.−Low Inc.Mexico Med.−Low Inc. High−Med. Inc. Cal. Exporters High−Med. Inc. Cal. Importers Low Inc.IndiaIndonesiaJapanAustraliaBrazil + Similar CountriesCanadaChina + Similar CountriesEgypt + Similar CountriesEuropeAfrica Low Inc. Cal. Importers Africa Med. Inc. Cal. ExportersAfrica Med. Inc. Cal. ImportersAfrica Oil ExportersArgentina−60−40−20020Africa Low Inc. Cal. ExportersFig. 10.2 Yield changes for doubled CO 2 (climate change plus CO 2 fertilization effects) used as input into global trade model in Rosenzweig and Parry (1994), based on crop model simulations for 100+ sites. Bars show yield changes using climate scenarios from the NASA GISS climate model, “+” indicates values for GFDL climate model, and “x” for UKMO climate model. The magnitude of CO 2 fertilization was 4%, 11%, 12%, and 17% for coarse grains, rice, wheat, and oilseeds, respectively. All yield changes correspond to simulations without any farmer adaptation180 D. Lobell and M. Burke results exhibit some of the main features of yield changes in most global assessments. First, the net yield impacts of climate change and doubled CO 2 tends to be negative for most but not all region–commodity combinations. Second, high latitude countries tend to have lower impacts than tropical countries because they start from a cooler baseline. Third, C 3 crops (rice, wheat, and oilseeds) tend to have lower impacts than maize because of greater CO 2 fertilization. Fourth, yield impacts varied substantially for dif-ferent climate model scenarios, three of which were considered in the study.An important innovation by Rosenzweig and colleagues was to examine the potential impact of adaptation in a systematic way. Each modeling group was asked to perform simulations with no adaptation (i.e. climate change and CO 2 effects only, as shown in Fig. 10.2), with “level 1” adaptations, where tactical decisions such as planting date and cultivar choice were optimized, and with “level 2” adaptations, which included more costly adaptations such as development of new irrigation infrastructure and new crop varieties. This design allowed an evaluation of the benefits of both small and large investments in adaptation.Table 10.1 summarizes the global production changes that result from the yield changes illustrated in Fig. 10.2, as well as those under different adaptation scenarios. The authors concluded that, assuming the full effects of CO 2 fertilization were realized, impacts on global cereal production ranged from negligible to slight declines (<10%) depending on the climate model used. Level 1 adaptations had a fairly small effect on overall impacts, but more expensive level 2 adaptations were effective in minimizing negative outcomes.The associated changes in cereal prices for doubled CO 2 and no adaptation ranged from 25% to 150% for the three climate scenarios, with increases in the number of malnourished by 10–60% (malnourishment prevalence in the BLS model increased by roughly 1% for each 2.5% increase in prices). For adaptation level 2, when global production changes ranged from +1 to −2%, price changes ranged from −5% to +35%, and malnourished populations changed by between −2% and +20%. The role of on-farm vs trade adaptations in these projections are discussed further in Chapter 8.Many subsequent global assessments have been conducted since the early 1990s (Reilly et al. 1994; Parry et al. 1999; Fischer et al. 2002; Darwin 2004; Parry et al. 2004; Fischer et al. 2005), providing some consensus on several key points:Table 10.1 The projected impacts of doubled CO 2 on global cereal production (% change) for different climate models, adaptation levels, and with and without CO 2 fertilization (from Rosenzweig and Parry 1994; see text for details on adaptation levels)Scenario GISS GFDL UKMO Climate change only −11−12−20With CO 2 fertilization −1−3−8With CO 2 and adaptation Level 10−2−6With CO 2 and adaptation Level 210−2Climate models: GISS = Goddard Institute for Space Studies (4.2, 11); GFDL = Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (4.0, 8); UKMO = United Kingdom Meteorological Office (5.2, 15). Numbers in parentheses are global average change in temperature (°C) and precipitation (%) for each model.18110 Global and Regional Assessments (i) Global price increases associated with a doubling of CO 2 range from negligible for moderate climate change to significant for more extreme climate scenarios.As a doubling of CO 2 is likely to be reached near mid-century, studies that evalu-ate transient scenarios out to 2100 generally also consider higher CO 2 levels. Long-term price impacts tend to increase as CO 2 levels are increased, because the positive effects of higher CO 2 are increasingly outweighed by the negative impacts of associated climate changes.2 Equilibrium price changes thus often exceed 10% by the end of the century for most emissions scenarios (Easterling et al. 2007). (ii) Impacts are generally more negative for developing countries than developedcountries. This arises mainly from the fact that most developing countries are in tropical climates with a warmer baseline climate, so that warming more quickly pushes crops beyond their optimum temperature range. In addition, tropical countries tend to rely more on C 4 crops like maize, sorghum, and millet that exhibit small CO 2 fertilization effects. As a result of more detrimental effects in developing nations, trade models anticipate substantial expansion of trade flows from North to South.(iii) Although the general North-South gradient in impacts is seen in most models,there can be substantial heterogeneity within regions owing to the specific pat-terns of rainfall and temperature changes. For example, the United States exhib-ited among the most severe yield losses out of all nations in a study that used the Hadley Center’s HadCM3 model (Parry et al. 1999). Even neighboring countries can exhibit quite different responses depending on details of rainfall simulations. This is illustrated by simulated cereal yield impacts by 2050 in India and Pakistan from Fischer et al. (2002), where impacts ranged from 16% higher to 10% lower in India relative to Pakistan depending on the climate model (Fig. 10.3).(iv) Adaptations can substantially reduce the impacts of climate change, but rela-tively easy options such as planting date shifts generally have only a small impact while more expensive changes provide most of the benefit (see Chapter 8). The simulated benefits of adaptations are tempered by two caveats. First, few studies have explicitly incorporated the costs of these adaptations into mea-sures of economic impact, nor have they performed a clear cost-benefit analy-sis. Second, most studies find that adaptation is likely to proceed more effectively in developed nations, thus exacerbating the North–South gradient in impacts and the trade imbalances that result. Additional issues such as how quickly farmers can actually perceive climate trends are discussed in Chapter 8.10.3 R egional AssessmentsIn addition to estimates of regional yield changes that have been developed in the process of global assessments (e.g., Fig. 10.2), there is also a growing wealth of studies focused on particular regions. Indeed, the literature is too vast to provide an exhaustive review. 2However, higher emissions scenarios can actually reduce near-term impacts since the CO 2 fer-tilization effect responds instantly to higher CO 2 levels while the climate system takes several decades to respond.182D. Lobell and M. BurkeInstead we present below a brief summary for four key regions. We focus here on projected impacts in the absence of adaptation, with potential effects of adaptation addressed in Chapter 8.10.3.1 C hinaRice remains the main staple in China as it has for thousands of years, accounting for over one-quarter of the calories and roughly one-sixth of the protein consumed in 2003 (FAO 2007). Wheat, soybean, and maize are also important components of the modern Chinese diet, consumed both directly and indirectly via animal products (Chapter 2). Nearly all rice fields in China are irrigated (Huke and Huke 1997), while the majority of wheat and maize fields are rainfed.China is commonly viewed as facing relatively benign impacts of climate change on agriculture. For example, Rosenzweig and Parry (1994) projected mod-erate yield declines for rice and maize but slight increases for wheat and soybean (Fig. 10.2). A main reason for the modest impacts is that most of the rainfed crops 2010−10−20−30ECHAM HADCM2CGCM1Fig. 10.3 Yield changes in India and Pakistan by 2050 (relative to 1961–1990) simulated with the Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) models of Fischer et al. (2002) for three different climate model scenarios: ECHAM (Max-Planck Institute of Meteorology), HADCM2 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research), and CGCM1 (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis). Not only do average yield changes vary with climate scenario, but the relative impacts in India and Pakistan differ greatly, likely due to the spatial distribution of rainfall change18310 Global and Regional Assessments are concentrated in Northern China where fairly cool temperatures predominate for most of the growing season. In Southern China, where rice is the dominant crop, widespread irrigation is assumed to prevent any significant losses that would arise from greater water stress.Even with these moderating factors, warming is expected to harm yields in most assessments. Figure 10.4a summarizes estimates of rice yield changes from various crop-modeling studies of China that considered a range of warming. Studies often differ by a factor of two, depending on the crop model used, the projected change in rainfall, and other factors. Yet all show a negative response for warming. A recent Ricardian analysis of revenues from 8,405 households throughout China also found a negative marginal impact of temperature on the average crop revenues (Wang et al. 2008).Thus, most projected gains in agriculture in China result from a fertilization effect of CO 2 that is simulated to overwhelm climate related losses. This CO 2 effect is illustrated for rice in Fig. 10.4 by the arrows, whose lengths indicate that the magnitude of CO 2 fertilization also differs considerably by study. Some prominent studies appear to include CO 2 effects that are much bigger than suggested by recent field experiments (see Chapter 7). For example, one analysis of impacts by 2050 projected rice, wheat, and maize yield losses under an A2 emission scenario of 12.4, 20.4, and 22.8%, respectively, without CO 2 fertilization, but yield gains of 6.2, 20.0, and 18.4% with CO 2 fertilization (Lin et al. 2005; Xiong et al. 2007). This corresponds to 18.6, 40.4, and 41.2% yield boost from CO 2 concentrations of 559 ppm, reflecting a major role of reduced water stress from stomatal closure in the version of the CERES models used in that study.China India20200% Y i e l d C h a n g e 0% Y i e l d C h a n g e−40−20−40−200123456Local Temperature Change (C)0123456Local Temperature Change (C)ab Fig. 10.4 Crop model estimates of rice yield changes for different levels of warming for (a ) China and (b ) India, as reported in various studies. Black dots indicate effects without CO 2 fertilization, and gray dots with CO 2 fertilization, with arrows connecting points from the same study. The only difference between points connected by arrows is thus the simulated effect of CO 2. Values were derived from three studies for China (Matthews 1995; Lin et al. 2005; Tao et al. 2008), and five for India (Matthews 1995; Lal et al. 1998; Saseendran et al. 2000; Aggarwal and Mall 2002; Krishnan et al. 2007)184 D. Lobell and M. Burke Most yield impact assessments for China to date assume a constant supply of irrigation water. Given the crucial role that irrigation plays in Chinese agriculture, however, the potential of climate change to increase or decrease water availability and demand is also of concern. Tao et al. (2008) estimated water use in rice at five stations in China for various climate scenarios, and found in nearly all cases that a shortened growing season resulted in overall lower crop evapotranspiration and water use. Water use was further curtailed when CO 2 effects on stomatal closure were taken into account, even when yield gains were simulated. As a result of lower water use, irrigation demand was reduced in nearly all cases except where precipitation was projected to decline. These results suggest that shorter seasons and lower ET rates will tend to diminish water use in agriculture, but the demand for (and surely the availability of) irrigation water will also depend on uncertain precipitation trends.10.3.2 I ndiaIndian agriculture is characterized by a wide range of crops, most prominent among them rice (44 Mha harvested in 2007), wheat (28 Mha), and millet (11 Mha) (FAO 2007). In contrast to China, most crops in India are grown in relatively hot condi-tions. Spring and summer temperatures commonly exceed 40°C even in the current climate. Thus, one would expect crops to be more sensitive to warming. Indeed, a survey of rice crop modeling studies indicate that even with CO 2 fertilization, warming above 2°C is likely to lower Indian rice yields (Fig. 10.4b ). Only a single study with nearly a 40% boost from higher CO 2 (Matthews 1995) shows yield gains for more than 2°C warming.The sensitivity of Indian crops to warming is also evident in statistical analysis of time series data (Table 10.2). Using the approach outlined in Chapter 5 to esti-mate impacts by 2030, many important crops are anticipated to incur yield losses (Lobell et al. 2008). Combined with the fact that India possesses the highest popu-lation of undernourished people in the world (Chapter 2), food security in India appears particularly vulnerable to climate change.In a Ricardian study, net farm revenues in India were similarly found to respond negatively to warming, with a 12% reduction in revenue for a scenario with 2°C warm-ing and a 7% increase in rainfall (Dinar et al. 1998). Thus, whether using crop models, time series based models, or panel based methods, the expected effects of warming are negative for most crops. In the near term, CO 2 benefits may counteract these losses, although not in the case of prominent C 4 crops such as millet and sugarcane.Like China, India is heavily reliant on irrigation and thus the future reliability of water resources will likely play a crucial role in determining the net impact of cli-mate change. Declines in irrigation water, whether resulting from climate change or other factors such as increased urban demand, could greatly increase the sensitiv-ity of crops to higher temperatures. For example, crop model simulations for wheat in Northwest India suggest that the net impact of 1°C warming is roughly double18510 Global and Regional Assessments for a scenario reflecting severe water conservation than under business as usual irrigation (Lal et al. 1998). Unfortunately, the future effects of climate change on water resources in South Asia have not, to our knowledge, been closely examined as of this writing.10.3.3 S ub-Saharan AfricaEach of the 47 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has its own mix of primary crops and diets (Chapter 2). Nonetheless, as a whole Africa can be characterized as a conti-nent heavily dependent on C 4 cereals (maize, sorghum, and millets), cassava, ground-nuts, and, to a lesser extent, rice and wheat. SSA is also generally characterized by hot growing conditions relative to much of the developed world, although Southern African growing seasons can be relatively cool. Outside of a few countries, such as Sudan, irrigation is very rare in SSA, with roughly 5% of cereal area in irrigation as of 1995 and little growth expected by 2025 (Rosegrant et al. 2002).Given these conditions – a warm baseline climate, a lack of irrigation, and a predominance of C 4 crops unlikely to respond strongly to higher CO 2 – it is not surprising that model projections of climate impacts on SSA crops have tended to be negative. In a study using CERES-Maize for all countries in SSA and Latin America, Jones and Thornton (2003) project a fairly average modest decline of 10% by 2055 using a climate scenario from the Hadley CM2 model, though they point to a wide range of impacts between and even within several countries.Others have suggested more negative impacts, most notably the fourth assess-ment report of the IPCC, whose chapter on Africa concludes that “reductions in yield in some countries could be as much as 50% by 2020” (Boko et al. 2007). Table 10.2 Estimated sensitivity of average national yields of Indian crops to a 1°C rise in aver-age growing season temperature, based on time series analysis of 1961–2002 data (adapted from Lobell et al. 2008). The model included both average growing season temperature and rainfall. In several cases (e.g., millet) most of the model’s predictive skill came from rainfall, while tempera-ture sensitivities were not significantInferred yield change (%) per °CCropPercentage contribution to calories in Indian diet Model r 2Mean Standard deviation Wheat220.27−2.60.7Rice270.63−4.0 2.0Sugarcane140.03−0.1 2.2Millet30.63−4.2 4.4Sorghum20.140.8 6.5Maize20.16−3.6 2.5Soybean20.11−7.4 5.5Groundnut20.67−3.4 5.5Rapeseed 20.45−7.4 2.5186 D. Lobell and M. Burke Though this statement is accompanied only by a citation of a discussion paper on historical losses in drought years in Northern Africa, it nonetheless received wide-spread media attention.There has been less work specifically devoted to SSA than many other regions, and as a result the understanding of potential outcomes and uncertainties has been quite limited (Challinor et al. 2007). The World Bank recently commissioned a series of cross-sectional studies of crop revenue in Africa (e.g., Kurukulasuriya et al. 2006), with mixed results but generally negative impacts. Time series models indicate that Southern Africa is extremely sensitive to warming, more so than the warmer tropical regions (Lobell et al. 2008). A likely reason for this is that fertilizer rates and average yields in Southern Africa are considerably higher, so that there is more room for damage in hot years relative to cool years.Combining data from all countries into a panel analysis for the 1961–2002 period, a recent analysis by Schlenker and Lobell (2009) attempted to estimate the probability of different levels of yield impacts by 2050 for five major crops in SSA: maize, sor-ghum, millet, groundnuts, and cassava. The first four were found to have significant negative responses (not accounting for CO 2 fertilization), even in the case of millet that is generally regarded as relatively tolerant of hot conditions. There was no clear rela-tionship between cassava production and either temperature or rainfall, likely because cassava harvests are irregular and therefore collection of production data and definition of growing season weather are much more difficult than for other crops.A comparison of the impact probability distributions for maize with point-esti-mates from previous studies is shown in Fig. 10.5 for four countries (for a more complete comparison, see Schlenker and Lobell 2009). The estimates of Parry et al. (1999) and Jones and Thornton (2003) generally fall within the distributions, although they tend toward the optimistic end of the range in most countries. Impacts projected by the FAO model (Fischer et al. 2002) in contrast appear much more optimistic than the other three studies. Since Fischer et al. (2002) only report estimatesFig. 10.5 Estimated probability distribution of maize yield impacts of climate change, without adaptation, in selected African countries, based on Schlenker and Lobell (2009). Gray bars show 25th–75th percentile of estimates, whiskers show 5th–95th percentile, and middle vertical line shows median projection. Point estimates from Parry et al. (1999) (“P”), Fischer et al. 2002 (“F”), and Jones and Thornton (2003) (“JT”) are shown for comparisonof impacts with CO 2 fertilization, we have subtracted 4% from each projection, equivalent to the reported CO 2 response for the AEZ model (Tubiello et al. 2007). This may explain some of the positive bias in the FAO relative to the other models, but in general the FAO results appear hard to justify, especially given the limited documentation of the model’s performance in simulating present-day African yields. Overall, the results in Fig. 10.5 support the notion that climate change presents a serious risk to African crop yields, and that losses by 2050 could easily exceed 20% in many countries.10.3.4 U nited States of AmericaThe United States dominates international trade of several agricultural commodi-ties. It is the leading exporter of maize, soybeans, and wheat flour, and therefore production of these crops in the United States has an important influence on food prices throughout the world and thus on food security. The United States is also one of the most extensively studied regions in terms of climate change impacts. An early analysis based on crop models indicated that some Northern regions would gain from temperature increases, but that in most important production regions, such as the Corn Belt and Southern Great Plains, warming accompanying a dou-bling of CO 2 would reduce yields by an amount roughly equal to the fertilization effect of CO 2 (Adams et al. 1990). Thus, it was concluded that a doubling of CO 2 would result in small net changes to major commodities in the United States, and that adaptation to warming could even result in net benefits.These conclusions have been generally supported by many subsequent studies, many of which are reviewed in a recent national summary report (CCSP 2008). This report also highlights some factors that have not been considered in most modeling studies, such as the likely northward migration of weeds. The range of several important pests, such as corn earworm, are also currently constrained by winter temperatures and can be expected to expand greatly in future climates (Diffenbaugh et al. 2008). There may also be smaller than expected CO 2 benefits for the most widely grown crop, maize (see Chapter 7). Finally, there might also be greater impacts from extreme heat episodes than most currently used models antici-pate. For instance, Schlenker and Roberts (2008) find that yields of maize, soy-beans, and cotton in the United States are very sensitive to extreme heat (see Chapter 6). Such results raise important questions about the generally low sensitiv-ity of process-based crop models to warming in these systems.As some key regions such as California and Nebraska are heavily dependent on irrigation, changes in water resources will also be important. For much of the coun-try, the future direction of rainfall trends remains ambiguous and therefore water availability may increase or decrease (Thomson et al. 2005a). In the West, heavy dependence on snowpack combined with anticipated higher temperatures will very likely result in reduced water availability during the growing season months (Maurer and Duffy 2005). Interestingly, total national irrigated area was projected。