Internet economies: Going local 互联网经济走向本土化
THE internet is flattening the world. Or so they say. Yet new statistics from the OECD, a rich-country think-tank, and Boston Consulting Group (BCG) show that the global “network of networks” is shaped by local f orces.
互联网正在让世界变平。或者说他们是这么说。然而，富国智库经合组织和波士顿咨询集团发布的新统计数据表明本土力量塑造了全球的“综合网络”。
The OECD’s statistics on broadband internet access in its member countries have long been closely watched (in particular the mediocre ranking of America, which still lags behind most of Europe in high-speed links). The organisation has now broken out numbers on wireless broadband subscriptions. And the national differences turn out to be even bigger (see chart).
长期以来，经合组织关于其成员国宽带连接情况的统计数据一直备受关注（美国居中的排名尤其受到了关注，美国在高速连接方面仍然落后于大多数欧洲国家）。目前经合组织统计出了无线宽带用户的数量。结果表明国与国之间的差异更大了。
BCG, for its part, in a new study of 46 countries, looks at how businesses, consumers and governments use the net. The data show that different countries have distinct internet economies. Britain’s internet infrastruct ure rates poorly, mainly because of its slow broadband speeds, but it has the highest per-person online spending and its government agencies are very active. Hong Kong, by contrast, tops the world in connectivity, but its consumers prefer to spend their money offline.
波士顿咨询公司对46个国家进行了新研究，关注了企业、消费者和政府的网络使用情况。数据表明不同的国家具有不同的互联网经济。英国的互联网基础设施排名比较靠后，主要是因为其宽带速度缓慢，但是英国每个人的网上消费是最高的，其政府机构也非常活跃。相比之下，香港就其连接情况而言位居世界第一，但是香港的消费者不喜欢在网上消费。
The differences spring from a country’s political and economic heritage. South Korea, for instanc e, has more political ambition than Britain to lead in broadband. If the British like to shop online it is not least because they also like to use credit cards, the easiest means to pay online. In Hong Kong, with its dense retail infrastructure, there is not much need for consumers to shop virtually.
一个国家的政治和经济状况导致了不同的情况。比如，韩国在宽带建设方面比英国更加雄心勃勃。如果英国人喜欢网上购物，这尤其是因为他们也喜欢使用网上支付最简便的方法——信用卡。在香港，零售商店随处可见，实际上消费者并不怎么需要购物。
To compare countries, BCG has come up with an “e-intensity index”. South Korea, Denmark and Sweden come out on top, whereas India, Egypt and Indonesia wind up at the bottom. Some countries, including Britain and Japan, do much better than would be expected given their GDP per person; others—Saudi Arabia and Italy—do worse.
为了比较各国的情况，波士顿咨询公司创造了“电子密度指数”。韩国、丹麦和瑞典位居前列，而印度、埃及和印尼则是垫底。要是将其人均国内生产总值考虑在内，英国和日本等一些国家的名次会比预期靠前得多，沙特和意大利等其他国家则会更加靠后。
Some of these differences will certainly go away, says Paul Zwillenberg of BCG. But overall, he
predicts, the internet will continue to become more and more local: cultures are different, so the more people go onli ne, the more the internet will resemble them. “There will be hundreds of internet flavours,” he says.
波士顿咨询公司的保罗?兹韦伦勃格表示，其中的一些差异以后必定会消失。但是他预测，总体而言，互联网将越来越本土化：文化不同，因此上网的人越多，互联网就会越像他们。他说：“今后会出现数百种互联网。”
Back to black 返璞归真
ONE common trend in many Western countries, regardless of the health of their recorded-music markets, is clear: vinyl is back. Sales of LPs were up in both Britain and Germany last year. In America vinyl sales are running 39% above last year’s level (see chart). In Spain sales have risen from 16,000 in 2005 to 104,000 in 2010. That is an increase from a tiny base, but any rise in media sales in Spain’s ravaged market is noteworthy.
很多西方国家，无论其唱片市场是否健康发展，他们的一个共同趋势都很明显：唱片又开始盛行。去年，黑胶唱片的销量在英国和德国纷纷上涨。美国，唱片销量比去年上升了39%（见图表）。西班牙，唱片销量从2005年的16000上升到2010年的104000，该增长的基数很低，但是西班牙市场曾严重受挫，因此任何媒体销量的增长都是值得注意的。
This is a second revival for vinyl. The first, in the late 1990s, was driven largely by dance music. Teenagers bought Technics turntables and dreamed of becoming disc jockeys in Ibiza. But being a DJ is difficult and involves lugging heavy crates. Many have now gone over to laptops and memory sticks.
这是黑胶唱片的第二次复兴。于上世纪90年代末期出现的第一次复兴，主要是由蹦迪音乐促发的。伊比沙岛的青少年们购买工艺唱盘机，梦想在成为摇滚音乐演奏者（DJ）。但是成为DJ是非常困难的，而且还需要携带很多沉重的板条箱。很多人现在选择使用笔记本电脑和记忆棒。
These days the most fervent vinyl enthusiasts are mostly after rock music. Chris Muratore of Nielsen, a research firm, says a little over half the top-selling vinyl albums in America this year have been releases by indie bands such as Bon Iver and Fleet Foxes. Last year’s bestselling new vinyl album was “The Suburbs” by Arcade Fire. Most of the other records sold are reissues of classic albums. Those idiosyncratic baby-boomers who were persuaded to trade in their LPs for CDs 20 years ago are now being told to buy records once again.
目前，最热情的唱片狂热者基本上是摇滚乐的追随者。Nielsen研究公司的Chris Muratore 说，美国今年最畅销的黑胶唱片，有略微超过一半是由Bon Iver和Fleet Foxes这样的乐队发行的。去年最畅销的新唱片专辑是拱廊之火(Arcade Fire)乐团的《郊外》，销售的大部分其他唱片则是古典专辑的再版物。那些出生在婴儿潮的特殊一代，20年前曾被说服用他们的黑胶唱片换取激光唱片，而现在他们再次购买黑胶唱片。
What is going on? Oliver Goss of Record Pressing, a San Francisco vinyl factory, says it is a mixture of convenience and beauty. Many vinyl records come with codes for downloading the album from the internet, making them more convenient than CDs. And fans like having something large and heavy to hold in their hands. Some think that half the records sold are not actually played.
到底是怎么回事呢？旧金山黑胶唱片工厂——唱片出版社（Record Pressing）的Oliver Goss 说，黑胶唱片是便利与唯美的结合。很多黑胶唱片都带有从网络下载专辑时所需要的代码，使得唱片比光盘要更加便利，而且，唱片的狂热者们喜欢拥有比较大比较沉的东西。有人认为售出的唱片中有一半并没有用来播放音乐。
Vinyl has a distinction factor, too.“It is just cooler than a download,” explains Steve Redmond, a spokesman for Britain’s annual Record Store Day. People used to buy bootleg CDs and Japanese imports containing music that none of their friends could get hold of. Now that almost every track is available free on music-streaming services like Spotify or on a pirate website, music fans need something else to boast about. That limited-edition 12-inch in translucent blue vinyl will do nicely.
黑胶唱片本身卓越的特性也是一个原因。“唱片要比下载更加棒。”英国一年一度唱片店日的发言人Steve Redmond解释说。过去人们经常购买盗版光碟和从日本进口的商品，那里面有他们的朋友所不能获得的音乐。现在几乎任何渠道都可以获得免费的音乐，从Spotify的音乐流媒体到盗版音乐网站。音乐狂热者还需要一些其他的方式来炫耀，限量版12英寸半透明的蓝色唱片恰恰能满足音乐狂热者们的要求
A climate of conflict 气候之争
PANELS of experts assessing scientific investigations tend to be messy affairs, particularly when their customers are governments. People with expertise in one field, such as renewable energy, may have a bias towards it. Summaries of their work are the result of political negotiations. And findings are further boiled down in an attempt to win media coverage.
那些评估科学考察的专家的有代表性的调查往往成了棘手的事务，尤其是当他们的客户是政府时更是如此。在某个领域，如可再生能源方面拥有专业知识的人或许对此有侧重。他们的工作总结就是政治谈判的结果。而且调查的结果被进一步归结为试图获得（赢得）媒体报道。
Much of this can be seen in a new “special report” on renewable energy by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was released last week. Possible conflicts of interest, revealed by Steve McIntyre, a blogger, have led to another controversy about the panel—only 18 months after its embarrassment over an incorrect claim about the imminent demise of the Himalayas’ glaci ers.
从新的有关可再生能源的“特别报告”[1]中就可以看到以上的大部分情况，该报告是在上周由政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC，以下简称气候委员会）发布的。一个叫史帝夫．麦因特（Steve McIntyre）的博客透露，可能的利益冲突已经导致（引发）了对调查的又一场
争议——这距离上次关于喜马拉雅山冰川即将消失的错误言论仅有18个月的时间[2]。
For a start, the press release about the report was misleading. “Close to 80% of the world’s energy supply could be met by renewables by mid-century if backed by the right enabling public policies, a new report shows,” it claims. In fact, the report merely discusses the assumptions needed to produce this outcome, one of the more extreme scenarios the IPCC looked at.
首先，新闻机构发布的这个报道就有误导性。它声称“一个新的报告显示，如果在正确且有效的公共政策支持下，在本世纪中叶，可再生能源可以提供全球近80%的能源供应”。事实上，该报告仅仅讨论了能够出现这种结果的假设，气候委员会检查（或察看）的很极端的情况之一。
A poorly written press release might have caused less of a stir, were it not for the fact that Greenpeace had come up with the scenario. Its development was led by Sven Teske, director of the group’s renewable-energy campaign. He was also one of the 12 authors of the chapter in question. What is more, a Greenpeace publication based on this scenario was graced by a foreword written by Rajendra Pachauri, the IPCC’s chairman.
一个写得不好的新闻稿或许不会造成太大的轰动，假如不是因为绿色和平已经提供（出）了这样的设想（或方案）的事实。该设想是由思凡?泰斯科（Sven Teske）领导编写的，他是绿色和平组织可再生能源项目主管，也是相关有争议内容的12个作者之一。此外，气候委员会的主席金德拉?帕乔里（Rajendra Pachauri）还为绿色和平组织的一个出版物作序，为其添彩不少，该出版物是也是以有争议的章节为依据的。
As if to underline such problems, when the governments that make up the IPCC met in May to release the summary of the report, they also adopted, for the first time, a policy on conflicts of interest among expert authors. Such a policy had been strongly recommended by an outside panel asked to look into the IPCC last year.
气候委员会的政府成员在五月份会见时，发布了该报告的摘要，似乎就是为了强调这样的问题，他们也是第一次接受了在专家作者之间产生利益冲突的政策。去年，这样的政策受到一个要求调查气候委员会的外部专家小组强烈地支持。
Although Mr Teske’s case produced headlines, it is not necessarily the most worrying conflict of interest. Environmentalists are concerned about the number of “pro-dam” people on the team of authors reporting on hydropower. And it is not just the authors that may be conflicted. Each chapter of an IPCC report goes through a review process to ensure that all comments have been addressed satisfactorily. One of the two editors overseeing this process for the chapter on wind energy was Christian Kjaer, the boss of a lobbying group, the European Wind Energy Association. He points out that he did not seek the role of review editor, but was asked when someone else dropped out. Given the procedural nature of the task, he does not think that he had a conflict of interest.
虽然泰斯科的报告成了头条新闻，不过这不会成为最让人担忧的利益冲突。对于报告水利方面的作者，环保人士则关注其小组中“支持水坝”的人数。并不仅是作者会陷入冲突。气候委员会报告的每一章节都要通过审查程序以确保所有的评论都被处理地非常满意。在监督有关风能那一章的两个编辑之一是克利斯蒂坦?凯嘉尔（Christian Kjaer），他是一个游说集团欧洲风能协会的老板。他指出，他并没有要求评论编辑的职责，而是当另外的人退出时被请来的。
鉴于该任务的程序化特点，他并不认为有利益冲突。
Personal bias can be overcome with large, balanced author teams, but in the case of the report on renewables it is not obvious there was such a balance. The report discusses the downsides of various renewable energies, the challenge of incorporating them into existing infrastructure at scale and the vast if poorly bounded costs of deploying them: $1.5 trillion to $7.2 trillion in the 2020s, depending on the scenario. But the summary, in particular, is largely upbeat.
个人偏见可以在很大程度上被均衡的作者团队所解决，不过在报道可再生能源方面，却很少能够看到这样的均衡。该报告讨论了各种可再生能源的缺点，把这些可再生能源按比例整合到现存能源结构中面临的的挑战，还有如果部署不好这些能源,将面临巨大的成本：根据具报告，21世纪20年代需要投入1.5万亿到7.2万亿美元不等。不过该报告的摘要在很大程度上还是持乐观态度。
A case in point is the generating capacity of renewables. The report discusses the fact that this is smaller than for other forms of power generation. But the summary glosses over the problem, for instance by not mentioning that, although renewables have accounted for almost half the world’s new generating capacity in the past two years, the other half has probably generated a lot more electricity.
一个恰当的例子就是可再生能源的发电量。该报告讨论了可再生能源比其他形式的能源发电规模小的事实。不过，这个报告总结掩饰了问题。比如，没有提及，在过去的两年间，虽然可再生能源占到了全球新增发电量的几乎一半，但是另一半其它能源可能产生了多的多的电量。
This is not all the boffins’ fault. Some countries, such as Germany, which nominated Mr Teske, are very keen on renewables—and wanted the summary to reflect this. Brazil has little interest in anything that can be seen as biofuel-bashing.
这也不全是科学家们的错。一些例如德国这样非常热衷于可再生能源的国家提名了泰斯科，并希望摘要上能体现这一点。巴西则对被看作是反对生物燃料的东西一点兴趣也没有。
The lesson of the latest IPCC row is that its authors and organisers must fight harder against groupthink—and speedily implement the new conflict-of-interest policy. It is wrong, as Mr Pachauri seems to think, that the policy should not immediately and fully apply to everyone involved in the panel’s current climate assessment. It would be churlish to see no progress on reforming the IPCC, but blindness to believe there had been enough.
从气候委员会最新一系列事件中所吸取的教训就是，它的作者和组织都必须更加尽力地对抗群体思维——并且迅速实施新的利益冲突政策。就像帕乔里似乎思考的那样，涉及专家小组目前气候评估的政策不能立即，全方位地适用于每个人，这一点是错误的。若不是盲目相信气候委员会做的足够好了，那么在改革气候委员会方面看不到有任何进展将令人感到非常不愉快。
注：[1]特别报告：这是指在阿联酋首都阿布扎比发布《可再生能源特别报告》，其中指出，全球可再生能源在未来能满足全球能源需求，在开发潜能、技术条件和成本控制等方面可再生能源均没有瓶颈，唯一的发展障碍就是缺乏政府的支持政策。根据IPCC的这份《特别报告》，在现行的科学技术条件下，到2050年时，可再生能源可开发总量的2.5%将能满足全
球大约80%的能源需求；该报告同时特别强调，可再生能源在减缓气候变化、加大能源普及范围、能源使用的平等性和安全性等方面将能扮演更重要的角色。如能清除现存的政策瓶颈，可再生能源将会释放更多潜能。
[2]这个错误的宣言指的是：IPCC在2007年发布的第四次评估报告中写道，喜马拉雅冰川会在2035年前消失，随即有人指出，该报告数据存在错误，最终于2010年IPCC就此事进行了道歉，距现在约为18个月的时间。
Nightmareliner
IT WAS tempting fate to call an ambitious new aircraft the “Dreamliner”. A combination of radical technology and a novel outsourced system of manufacture has turned the Boeing 787 into a nightmare.
这曾是一件非常诱人的事：一架被寄予厚望的新型飞机被冠名以“梦幻客机”。然而，基础科技与全新外包生产系统的结合，将波音公司的787客机变成了一个梦魇。
Since its launch in December 2003, delay has piled on delay. The 787’s seal of approval from the American and European aviation authorities on August 26th and its first delivery—to All Nippon Airways in late September—come more than three years behind schedule.
自从2003年9月宣布研发生产787以来，延期就接踵而至。来自欧美航空局的787客机批准印章直到今年8月26号才下来，而第一次交付给全日本航空的787飞机要今年9月底才能到位。它们都比原定计划晚了超过有三年。
Nor do the company’s woes end th ere: it now faces the difficult task of ramping up production and delivering 787s to impatient customers. Three dozen part-finished 787s are lying around airfields by Boeing’s Everett factory north of Seattle, with ten more inside. The original plan was to have delivered over 100 787s by the end of 2009. Instead the company will be lucky to dispatch seven by the end of this year, and it will be late 2013 before production reaches the ten planes a month needed to break into profit.
波音公司的痛苦仍在继续：客户们越来越急不可耐，而公司却很难让产量实现跨越式增长。36架部分完成的787已经在波音埃弗雷特生产基地（坐落于西雅图北部）的停机坪上停放着了，还有10多架停在库房里面。波音公司原本计划在2009年底之前交付100多架787。但现在，它能在今年交付7架飞机就已经很幸运了。迟至2013年，波音公司才能将产量提高到每月10架飞机，从而扭亏为盈。
The delays were caused by suppliers. V ought in America and Alenia in Italy delivered defective chunks of the new composite plastic fuselage. V ought struggled so much that Boeing had to buy it. There were also hitches in the supply of smaller parts such as fasteners. Delays, reworking and compensation to customers all burned cash. Inventory costs at Boeing Commercial Airplanes
swelled from about $17 billion in December 2009 to more than $24 billion by December 2010.
延期主要是来自供应商。美国的V ought公司和意大利的Alenia公司曾交付了有缺陷的新型合成塑料机身。但是，在V ought使出浑身解数之后，波音公司不得不买下此类次品。连安全带这样的小配件也出现了故障。延期、返工以及客户补偿都耗资巨大。从2009年12月到2010年12月，波音商业飞机的库存费用从大约170亿美元膨胀到了240亿美元以上。
Bernstein, a research firm, estimates that Boeing will not start making money until it delivers its 45th aircraft, and the overall programme will not earn a profit until 1,000 aircraft have been delivered. Boeing officials suggest that this is too pessimistic. More details should emerge in October, with Boeing’s third-quarter results.
一家研究公司Bernstein预计：波音公司在它送出自己第45架飞机之前，是不会开始盈利的；而整个项目需要交付1000架飞机才能获得盈利。波音公司的官员认为这个预测未免太过于悲观了。更多的细节需要到10月份等波音第三季度财务报告出来之后才可以看到。
The Dreamlin er’s delays are especially painful because its launch was Boeing’s most successful ever. Attracted by the new plane’s promise of fuel economy—20% better than competitors—customers flocked to order more than 950. The strong plastic fuselage also allows for a nicer cabin with bigger windows and fresher, less pressurised air. The current order book is still 821 after cancellations. But early orders were all booked either at discounted launch prices or at levels set before the plane’s production costs soared, a nd Boeing has little hope of putting up the price.
“梦幻客机”曾经被认为是波音最成功的项目之一，因此它的延误就越发显得令人痛苦。蜂拥而至的客户预订了超过950架787客机，他们被新型飞机的燃油经济所吸引——波音公司承诺787会比其他竞争者多省20%的燃油。
Hopes were high in 2003 that the Dreamliner’s revolutionary plastic airframe would make for easier assembly than conventional aluminium ones. This may yet prove to be true, as even Airbus has opted to follow Boeing, switching to plastic in its new aircraft. Privately, Boeing officials admit that an all-new plane, a new technology and a new way of working with manufacturers (which involved risk-sharing), was too much novelty all at once.
2003年，人们对梦幻客机的期望非常高。它的革命性塑料机身比起传统的铝合金机身来，要更易于装配。这或许是事实：毕竟连空客都选择学波音，将传统机身换成了新型的塑料机身。波音官员私底下承认，要将一架全新的飞机、一项新的技术以及一种新的跟厂商合作的方式（同时会共享风险）同时整合起来，是一件过于新颖的事情。
The nightmare is having knock-on effects. On August 29th Boeing’s board approved the launch of an upgraded version of its best-selling 737 single-aisle model, to be called the 737 MAX. This is a sign that Boeing is playing catch-up with Airbus, which has won over 1,200 orders for its re-engined single-aisle A320. Boeing had been hoping to hold off until it could offer an all-new single-aisle aircraft, based on the 787’s plastic technology. But in July American Airlines—one of
Boeing’s core customers—decided to give Airbus the lion’s share of its order (the world’s biggest) to renew its single-aisle fleet. Boeing had to scale back its ambitions. “We have the technology,” says an insider. “But the lesson of the 787 is that we could not get the production up to scratch in time.”
这个噩梦正在造成连锁效应。今年8月29日，波音董事会批准了对其最畅销的737单过道飞机进行升级，并取名为737 MAX。这是波音努力追逐空客的信号。空客公司的重新安装引擎后的A320单过道飞机曾赢得了超过1200个订单。波音想提供一架全新的以787塑料技术为基础的单过道飞机，它曾希望在此之前按兵不动。但是，今年七月份，美国航空——波音的核心顾客——为了更新单过道飞机，它决定向空客提供最大份额的订单（也是全世界最大的）。波音不得不相应压低自己的雄心。“我们是有技术，”一个内部人员说道，“但是787带来的教训是：我们无法让及时地生产出产品。”
Think different1
INNOV ATION is today’s equivalent of the H oly Grail. Rich-world governments see it as a way of staving off stagnation. Poor governments see it as a way of speeding up growth. And businesspeople everywhere see it as the key to survival.
如今，创新等同于圣杯：富裕世界的政府视其为避免经济萧条的方法，贫穷国家的政府把它当做加速经济增长的手段，任何地方的商人们都将其看做企业生存的关键。
Which makes Clay Christensen the closest thing we have to Sir Galahad. Fourteen years ago Mr Christensen, a knight of the Harvard Business School, revolutionised the study of the subject with “The Innovator’s Dilemma”, a book that popularised the term “disruptive innovation”. This month he publishes a new study, “The Innovator’s DNA”, co-written with Jeff Dyer and Hal Gregersen, which tries to take us inside the minds of successful innovators. How do they go about their business? How do they differ from regular suits? And what can companies learn from their mental habits?
是什么让克雷?克里斯坦森成为苦苦追寻圣杯的加拉哈特爵士呢？在十四年前，克里斯坦森——哈佛商学院的一名骑士——写了本具有革命性意义的学术著作《创新者的两难》。其中一条著名的专业术语，“破坏性创新”，因此书而为人熟知。这个月，他与两位合写人，杰夫?戴尔和哈尔?葛瑞格森，又将出版一本新书，名叫《创新者DNA》。这本书试图使读者深入了解成功创新者们的思想：他们是怎样做生意的？他们跟平常人如何不同？企业应该从他们的思维习惯里学到什么？
Mr Christensen and his colleagues list five habits of mind that characterise disruptive innovators: associating, questioning, observing, networking and experimenting. Innovators excel at
connecting seemingly unconnected things. Marc Benioff got the idea for https://www.doczj.com/doc/6e14591339.html, by looking at enterprise software through the prism of online businesses such as Amazon and eBay. Why were software companies flogging cumbersome products in the form of CD-ROMs rather than as flexible services over the internet? https://www.doczj.com/doc/6e14591339.html, is now worth $19 billion.
克里斯坦森先生和同僚们列出了破坏性创新者的五个思维习惯特征：爱关联，常提问，易洞察，好交际，敢实验。创新者们擅长将看似毫无关联的东西联系在一起。马克?贝尼奥夫曾透过网络生意（如亚马逊和易趣）的棱镜来观察企业软件，并因此获得创建https://www.doczj.com/doc/6e14591339.html, 的点子。为什么软件公司总是把笨重的软件产品刻在光盘里面，而不采用灵活得多的网络服务方式？如今，https://www.doczj.com/doc/6e14591339.html,的市值已是190亿美元。
These creative associations often come from broadening your experience. Mr Benioff had his lucrative epiphany while on sabbatical—swimming with dolphins, he says. Joe Morton, co-founder of XANGO, got the idea for a new health drink when he tasted mangosteen fruit in Malaysia. Mr Christensen and co reckon that businesspeople are 35% more likely to sprout a new idea if they have lived in a foreign country (a rather precise statistic). But this is not a recipe for just hanging loose: IDEO, an innovation consultancy, argues that the best innovators are “T-shaped”—they need to have depth in one area as well as breadth in lots.
这些有创意的关联通常都来自于广泛的知识面。贝尼奥夫说，他的赚钱点子是在一次年假中与海豚齐游时突然想到的。而XANGO公司的创始人，乔?莫顿，在马来西亚品尝山竹果时才想到开发一种新的保健饮料。克里斯坦森他们计算过：曾经在国外待过的商人会比别人想出一个新点子的概率多35%（一个相当精确的统计）。然而，这不仅仅是一个轻轻松松的成功秘诀。艾迪欧——一家商业模式创新咨询公司——认为：最成功的创新者是“T子型人才”：他们不仅需要在某一方面钻研得很深，还需要懂许多其他方面的知识。
Innovators are constantly asking why things aren’t done differently. William Hunter, the founder of Angiotech Pharmaceuticals, asked doctors why they didn’t cover the stents they use in heart operations with drugs to reduce the amount of scar tissue (which accounts for 20% of rejections). David Neeleman, the founder of JetBlue and Azul, wondered why people treated airline tickets like cash, freaking out when they lose them, whereas customers could instead be given an electronic code?
创新者们经常问，为什么事情不是采用不同的方法完成的呢。Angiotech Pharmaceuticals的创始人，威廉?亨特，曾经问医生：为何不把用来减少瘢痕组织（20%的排斥效应来自于此）的药物应用到心脏手术中去呢？大卫?尼尔曼——捷蓝航空和阿苏尔航空的创始人——曾惊讶道：我们为什么要让顾客为丢失机票而抓狂（因为他们将机票看做是现金），而不是提供给他们一份电子号码呢？
This taste for questions is linked to a talent for observation. Corey Wride came up with the idea for Movie Mouth, a company that uses popular films to teach foreign languages, when he was working in Brazil. He noticed that the best English speakers had picked it up from film stars, not school teachers. Bu t people without a flair for languages find the “Brad Pitt” method tricky—actors speak too fast. So Mr Wride invented a computer program that allows users to slow
films down, hear explanations of various idioms and even speak the actors’ lines for them.
喜欢问问题通常是与天生的洞察力分不开的。科里?瑞德在巴西工作时，曾突发奇想创办了“电影口”——一家利用著名电影来教授外语的公司。他注意到，那些英语最好的人会从电影明星那里学到很多东西，而不是从英语老师那儿。但是，缺少语言天赋的人发现“布拉德?皮特”方法非常复杂：因为演员们说得太快了。因此，瑞德开发了一个电脑程序。它能让用户们调慢电影播放速度，从而听清不同俚语的解释，它甚至还能朗诵演员们的台词。
For all their reputation as misfits, innovators tend to be great networkers. But they hang around gabfests to pick up ideas, not to win contracts. Michael Lazaridis, the founder of Research in Motion, says he had the idea for the BlackBerry at a trade show, when someone told him how Coca-Cola machines used wireless technology to signal that they needed refilling. Kent Bowen has turned CPS Technologies into one of the world’s fizziest ceramics companies by encouraging his employees to network with scientists who are confronted with similar problems in different fields: for example, the company eliminated troublesome ice crystals by talking to experts on freezing sperm (really).
对于那些与名誉不相称的创新者来说，他们更倾向成为杰出的交际者。不过，他们喜欢在冗长的交谈中激发创意，而不是想方设法赢取合同。迈克?拉扎利迪斯是RIM的创始人。据他说，在一次商展中，有人告诉他可口可乐机器是怎样运用无线技术去感应判断是否需要再填充的，而他就在此刻找到了开发黑莓手机的灵感。肯特?鲍文鼓励员工跟在不同领域面临同样问题的科学家们交流。依靠这个办法，他成功地将CPS Technology转变为世界上最具创造力的陶瓷品公司。例如，麻烦的冰晶问题就是靠在冰冻精子专家的交谈中被解决的（真的，不骗你）。
Innovators are also inveterate experimenters, who fiddle with both their products and their business models. Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, now sells e-readers and rents out computer power and data storage (by one estimate a quarter of small and medium-sized companies in Silicon Valley use the company’s cloud). These experiments are frequently serendipitous. IKEA never planned to base its business on self-assembly. But then a marketing manager discovered that the best way to get some furniture back into a lorry, after a photo-shoot, was to take its legs off, and a new business model was born.
创新者有实验癖，他们喜欢摆弄自己的商业产品以及商业模式。亚马逊创始人，杰夫?贝索斯，现在在卖电子阅读器，另外还提供电脑运算和数据储存的租赁服务（据估计，硅谷有四分之一的中小型企业都在使用这家公司的云服务）。这些实验成果通常是偶然发现的。宜家家居从来不把自行组装当做一门重要生意。但是后来，市场部经理在一次拍照中发现：将家具装进卡车里的最好办法是去掉它们的立柱。于是，一个全新的商业模式诞生了。
Listen to mommy
听妈妈的话
Messrs Christensen, Dyer and Gregersen argue that companies that have the highest “innovation premiums” (calculated by looking at the proportion of their market value that cannot be accounted
for by their current products) display the same five habits of mind as individual innovators. They work hard to recruit creative people. (Mr Bezos asks job applicants to tell him about something they have invented.) They work equally hard at stimulating observation and questioning. Keyence Corporation, a Japanese maker of automation devices for factories, requires its salespeople to spend hours wat ching its customers’ production lines. Procter & Gamble and Google have found that job swaps provoke useful questions: the Googlers were stunned that P&G did not invite “mommy bloggers”—women who write popular blogs on child-rearing—to attend its press conferences.
克里斯坦森，戴尔和葛瑞格森提到，具有最高“创新溢价”2（是靠计算超出当前市场中由当前产品所创造现金流的比例得出来的）的公司展现出了跟个体创新者相同的五个思维习惯。他们非常努力地招收极具创造力的员工（贝索斯会让求职者们谈谈自己发明过的东西）。他们同样非常努力地激发洞察力与好奇心。肯恩士集团——一家为工厂生产自动化器件的日本制造商——要求销售人员花更多的精力去考察客户们的生产线。而宝洁和谷歌曾发现，工作调换能激发一些有用的问题：谷歌人曾为宝洁没有邀请“妈妈博客”（写关于育儿的大众博客的女性）来参加新闻发布会而感到十分的震惊。
For all their insistence that innovation can be learned, Mr Christensen and co produce a lot of evidence that the disruptive sort requires genius. Nearly all the world’s most innovative companies are run by megaminds who set themselves hubristic goals such as “putting a ding in the universe” (Steve Jobs). During Mr Jobs’s first tenure at Apple, the company’s innovation premium was 37%. In 1985-98, when Mr Jobs was elsewhere, the premium fell to minus 30%. Now that Mr Jobs is back, the pr emium has risen to 52%. The innovator’s DNA is rare, alas. And unlike Mr Jobs’s products, it is impossible to clone.
克里斯坦森他们坚持认为创新是学得会的，但是他们也找了不少的证据来证明破坏性创新需要天才。世界上几乎所有创新公司都被那些有大智慧的人所管理，而他们自己也经常设定一些狂妄的目标，如“敲响宇宙钟声”（史蒂夫?乔布斯）。在乔布斯第一次担任苹果总裁期间，公司的创新溢价是37%。乔布斯于1985-98离开苹果去了其他地方，而苹果的创新溢价跌落到了-30%。现在乔布斯又回到了苹果，它的溢价指数又飙升至52%。哎，创新者DNA是多么罕见啊。而且，这也不像乔布斯的产品，因为它是绝无可能被山寨的。
“I REWROTE MY entire book after my experience of Spain and seeing what is happening in America, to recast it in terms of survival job-hunting,” says Richard Bolles. His book, “What Colour is Your Parachute?”, was first published in 1970 as a guide to finding a fulfilling job and has sold millions of copies. When Mr Bolles went to Spain in March to give advice on dealing with its indignant army of unemployed, he found that nobody had much idea how to get people back to work.
“由于西班牙的经历和当今美国的见闻，我重写了整本书，并用生存性求职的观点重塑了这
本书，”理查德.鲍尔斯如是说。他的书《你的降落伞是什么颜色？》作为一本求职指南首次发表于1970年并获得了几百万的销量。今年三月他去西班牙为怨气冲天的失业人群提供指导时，才发现大家对如何帮助失业者重返工作岗位一无所知。
Even in tough times there are jobs to be had, but applicants have to work far harder to get an employer’s attention, says Mr Bolles. The main thing is to give them hope and teach them the latest techniques for looking for work, of which he lists no fewer than 18. They need to market themselves better and consider a broader range of employers than they might have thought of. Not least, they must “clean up their act on the internet”. Facebook is now routinely scrutinised by human-resources departments, which will be instantly put off if they find anything negative or embarrassing.
鲍尔斯提到，即使在很糟的情况下仍然会有工作可做，但此时应聘者需要付出很多努力才能获得雇主的青睐。关键是要给求职者以信心，并且教给他们最新的求职技巧，鲍尔斯列出了不超过18条这样的技巧。求职者需要更好地推销自己且应该扩大原来设想的求职范围；尤为重要的是，他们应该清理其在网络上的痕迹，现在公司的人力部门经常定期检查Facebook，一旦发现任何负面或者不妥的迹象，求职就会被耽搁。
Better the devil you know
恶魔之上
The good thing about the internet is that it offers a vast amount of information to jobhunters, especially once they have secured an interview. https://www.doczj.com/doc/6e14591339.html,, a website launched in 2008 that now covers more than 120,000 companies worldwide, lets employees (anonymously) share information about firms, ranging from what people think about the boss to salary levels and details about the interview process. Last year’s annual Glassdoor list of oddball interview questions was topped by Goldman Sachs, w hich asked a candidate for an analyst’s job, “If you were shrunk to the size of a pencil and put in a blender, how would you get out?” One Glassdoor contributor’s suggested answer was, “Ask the government to bail me out,” which would probably not have secured the job.
网络很好的一点就是它为求职者提供了海量的讯息，这一优点在获得面试后尤其明显。网站https://www.doczj.com/doc/6e14591339.html,成立于2008年，现在覆盖了全球120,000家公司，雇员们可以在这个网站上匿名分享关于公司的信息，从对老板的看法、薪资水平到面试细节都有。去年高盛位列该网站的年度怪问题清单之首，高盛问一个求职分析员的人“如果你被缩到铅笔那么小并被放进了一个搅拌机，该怎么逃出来？”，网站上有人给出的参考答案是“让政府救援我”，当然这个答案不一定能保证你获得这份工作。
Whom you know has always played an important part in the search for work, but social media are changing it from an art into a science. Last May LinkedIn became one of this year’s hottest initial public offerings, with its share price doubling on the first day of trading, because the social-networking site for professionals started in 2002 has become an integral part of the job market, useful for jobseekers and recruiters alike. It has around 120m members, more than half of them outside America and many of them professionals earning $100,000 a year and above. The website enables them to identify mutual contacts who can introduce would-be employees and employers to each other. Such personal recommendations are thought to have a better chance of success than applications or job offers to total strangers. BranchOut, a start-up launched last year
which mostly deals with less exalted jobs, is trying to do something similar, using people’s networks of friends on Facebook to fill the jobs it lists.
人脉关系在找工作中一直都扮演着重要的角色，但是社会媒介已经把人脉资源从艺术变为了科学。去年五月，LinkedIn网站成了当年最火的股票首次公开发行，上市首日股价就翻了倍，这是由于这家成立于2002年的专业人士社交网站已经成了求职中不可或缺的部分。LinkedIn 有1.2亿会员，一半以上的会员在美国之外，其中很多会员年薪超过10万美元，LinkeIn使得专业人士们能够辨别可以介绍雇主或雇员的联系人，一般认为这样的私人推荐成功率更高。BranchOut是去年新成立的网站，主要处理中低端的工作，但和LinkeIn一样也是使用Facebook上的朋友网络来推荐工作。
Using these social-media tools to find a job is just the first step. According to Reid Hoffman, the founder of LinkedIn, the site is increasingly becoming a peer-to-peer career-development network. In future, he predicts, members of LinkedIn doing similar so rts of work will “trade intelligence” about professional best practice with each other. “It will be a way to upgrade yourself constantly by trading intelligence, on, say, how to do my job as a product manager better.”
用上述这些社会网络来找到工作仅仅的第一步。根据LinkedIn的创始人里德.霍夫曼所言，LinkedIn开始越来越像一个对等的网络。他预测，未来LinkedIn上同行业的人会彼此交换职业智慧。霍夫曼说，交换智慧也是一种不断提升自我的方法，比如说，可以（交流）如何能成为一个更好的产品经理。
The growing need for workers to keep upgrading and adapting their skills is one of the themes of a new book, “The Shift: The Future of Work is Already Here”, by Lynda Gratton of the London Business School. She argues that the pace of change will be so rapid that people may have to acquire a new expertise every few years if they want to be part of the lucrative market for scarce talent. She calls this process “serial mastery” and notes that the current educational system in most countries, from kindergarten through university, does a poor job of equipping people for continuous learning. There is likely to be a wave of innovation in further education, particularly online, that will cater to this need in a more flexible, personalised way than the traditional degree or postgraduate course. For some people, this evolution will take place within a single firm offering long-term employment. But for a growing number of workers the trick will be to jump from one company to another to take advantage of changing skill shortages.
伦敦商学院的琳达.格拉顿写了一本书叫《转变：未来的工作已在此处》，不断增加的对工人持续提升自我和改进技能的需求是该书的主题之一。在书中她认为，变化是如此之快，以至于要维持稀有人才的位置人们每几年就必须拥有一项新技能。她把这一过程称为“序列掌握”，并且指出现行的教育制度，从幼儿园到大学，在教会人们持续学习方面做得很差。在继续教育方面可能会涌现一波创新的浪潮，尤其是网络教育方面，因为网络教学比传统的学位教育更灵活和自主。部分人可能会在一个公司待很久，这项变革（网络教育）就其间发生；但对越来越多的人来说，这项变革可能意味着利用变化的技能短缺、从一个公司跳到另一个公司。
According to Ms Gratton, people will also have to invest more in their personal “social capital”, which wil l involve three elements. First, they need to build themselves a “posse”, a small group of up to 15 people they can turn to when the going gets rough, says Ms Gratton. They should have some expertise in common, have built up trust in each other and be able to work effectively
together.
根据格拉顿女士所说，人们同时也会在个人的“社会资本”方面投资更多，这主要涉及三个因素。第一，他们需要建立一个大概15人的小“团队”，在困境时可向这些人群寻求帮助；这些人应该有共通的技能，同时彼此之间建立了信任并且能够有效地一起工作。
Second, they need a “big-ideas crowd” who can keep them mentally fresh. This echoes the discussion of “managed serendipity” in last year’s business bestseller, “The Power of Pull”, in which John Hagel and John Seely Brown argued that the successful worker of the future will live in clusters of talented, open-minded people and spend a lot of time going to thought-provoking conferences. Third, they need a “regenerative community” to maintain their emotional capital, meaning family and friends in the real world “with whom you laugh, share a meal, tell stories and relax”.
第二，人们需要一个“大想法团”，这样可以保持思想上的新鲜，这和去年畅销商业书籍《拉动的力量》中讨论的“有管理的意外发现”相呼应；在这部畅销书中，约翰.海格尔和约翰.塞利.布朗认为，未来成功的工作人士应该居住在开放和有才华的人之中并且会花大量时间参加启迪思想的聚会。第三，人们需要一个“再生团体”来维护情绪资本，也即现实中“可以一起欢笑、一起吃饭、一起讲故事和放松”的朋友和家庭。
In a world where more people may work from home, there is a danger that they will become isolated. One remedy is the emergence of “collaborative workspaces” or “hubs” in big cities around the world. These are often more than shared offices with hot desks for people who prefer to be with other people even if they are not working for the same employer. The hub operator may also organise courses for professional development—on marketing or taxation, say—and social events.
在一个多数人都在家工作的世界，可能会有人和人相互隔绝的危险，一个可能的解决办法就是全球大城市中“协作工作区或工作中心”的出现，而这些地方也不仅仅是供那些为不同雇主工作、同时情愿和大家待在一块儿的人共享的办公地。这些工作中心的运营者也可以组织一些职业发展的课程（比关于营销或者关于税收）和社会活动。
Moreover, working from home will not be so isolating if home is next door to where potential workmates live. As Richard Florida argues in “The Rise of the Creative Class”, talented knowledge workers are choosing to cluster together in cities such as New York, Los Angeles, London and Shanghai so they can interact with each other easily, both formally and serendipitously. This has obvious implications for the price of property and other goods and services in areas where these workers choose to live, work, play, mingle and spend some of their ever-growing wealth.
此外，如果隔壁住着的就是潜在的同事，那么在家工作就不一定是那么与世隔绝了。就像理查德.佛罗里达在《创造阶层的崛起》中说的那样，有才华有知识的工人正在逐渐选择向纽约、洛杉矶、伦敦和上海这些城市聚集，这样他们可以更方便地以正式和非正式的方式互动；这些人将在这生活、工作、娱乐和社交，同时花掉他们不断累积的财富，这对这些区域的房价和物价也会有明显的影响，
Ms Gratton’s main mess age—that workers will have to take responsibility for their own future—makes good sense. People who work their way up the corporate ladder in the traditional
“Organisation Man” way will increasingly be the exception—and that is surely a good thing. “The pleasures of the traditional working role were the certainty of a parent-child relationship. You could leave it in the hands of the corporation to make the big decisions about your working life,” Ms Gratton explains. Now the world is moving towards an “adult-adult” relationship, which will require “each one of us to take a more thoughtful, determined and energetic approach to exercising the choices available to us”.
格拉顿女士传递的主要讯息——工作人士将不得不为他们的未来负责——是非常有意义的。传统在大公司里逐步上爬的“组织人”的工作方式将会越来越少见——而且这也肯定是个好事。格拉顿女士解释到：“传统工作角色的好处在于一种父子关系式的确定性，你可以把个人职业生涯的大问题丢给组织来决定。” 现在的世界正向一个成人式的关系发展，这种关系要求“每个人都用更关注、更坚定和更活跃的方式来做出选择”。
My pleasure
个人乐趣
Karl Marx thought that much modern industrial work was essentially dehumanising, reducing people to factors of production. These days a growing number of people are doing jobs they find fulfilling because they involve things they actually like doing. This has always been true for sports stars, authors and the like, but the idea that work can be a source of positive pleasure is spreading into other fields.
卡尔.马克思认为现代的工业劳作使人沦为一种生产要素，本质上是不人道的。现在，越来越多工作的人找到了满足感，因为他们做的是真正喜欢的事情，这一点对体育明星、作家和类似的人来说尤为真确，而工作可能成为快乐之源的观点也正逐渐在其他领域传播开来。
One indication of this trend is the rapid growth of employment in non-profit organisations, where many jobs offer a sense of social purpose as well as a salary (which in return might be lower than it would otherwise be). Surveys consistently find that many of today’s under-30s in rich countries want to spend their working day trying to make the world a better place as well as being properly paid, and turn down jobs that do not offer such satisfaction. Employers have cottoned on to this and now often mention a “social purpose” in their recruitment advertisements.
这一趋势（工作可能成为快乐之源这一观点的传播）的一个结果就是，既提供薪水又提供社会使命感的非盈利组织的雇佣的快速增加（这里的薪水会比类似但没有社会使命感的工作低）。调查不断揭示，现在富裕国家有许多30岁以下的人想要的工作是既能将世界变得更好、同时又能得到合理的薪水，而且他们愿意拒绝那些没有提供类似满足感的工作。雇主喜欢这一现象，现在常常在招聘面试中提到“社会使命”。
The talented, sought-after few, for their part, are encountering problems of their own as work takes up an ever-expanding part of their lives. The waves of lay-offs that followed the global financial crisis left a lot of extra work to do for those who remained, and the ubiquity of communications tools makes it difficult for them to get away from their job. But most employees just want the opportunity to do something they enjoy and balance their work obligations with other parts of their life. Many mothers of young children would like to keep working, at least part-time, and many older people who are still in good health when they reach the formal retirement age would like to continue in a job they like doing. Such preferences are reflected in the growing demand for childcare facilities and greater flexibility in pension arrangements.
对有才华的稀缺人才而言，他们面临着工作占据了生命绝大部分时间的问题。金融危机之后的裁员潮使得留下来的员工承担了很多额外的工作，而通讯工具的无孔不入使他们很难逃离工作。但大多数雇员都希望能有机会做些他们中意的事情，同时平衡好工作职责和生活其他部分。许多小孩的妈妈都希望能继续工作，至少能兼职；而许多老人达到退休年龄时身体也不错，他们也想继续从事喜欢的工作；不断增长的托儿所需求和退休金的灵活安排都体现了这些偏好。
Success by association
结盟取得成功
What about the people who do not command any kind of premium in the marketplace? One strategy could be to find a high-flyer and stick close. Even if joining their posse is out of reach, there are still horses to be fed and watered. The time-poor new rich are generating demand for household staff, and this sort of work can be very well paid. A private secretary and general factotum can earn up to $150,000 a year nowadays. Salaries for standard butlers range from $60,000 to $125,000 and a head butler can make as much as $250,000, according to the website of the Butler Bureau.
对于在市场上没有任何优势的人怎么办？一个策略就是找到一个有大抱负的人并紧密跟随，即使加入这类人的小团体很困难，但他们总有日常琐事要处理。时间宝贵的新贵需要家务助理，而且这类工作薪水还可能很高。一个私人秘书兼家务总管现在年薪可达15万美元；根据管家办公室的网站，普通管家的薪水在6万到12.5万美金，而总管家的年薪则可能多至25万美元。
As more and more people live to a ripe old age, demand for home-care workers is likely to soar. America will need 2m more of them in the next decade alone, says Ai-Jen Poo of the National Domestic Workers Alliance, an organisation that represents those who work in other people’s homes. But there are winners and losers even among domestic workers. As Ms Poo points out, many of them are badly paid, get little or no time off and are vulnerable to injury because they have had no proper training for lifting immobile people. A high proportion of them are illegal immigrants who have no come-back against ill-treatment. Unless the pay and training of home-care workers are improved, observes Ms Poo, ageing baby-boomers may have trouble finding competent people to look after them in their dotage.
随着越来越多的人步入老年，家庭护工的需求可能会急剧增长。全国住家工人联盟的朴爱珍认为，接下来十年美国可能会需要超过200万的家庭护工。朴女士指出，大部分家庭护工薪水都很差、没有休假而且对伤病很脆弱，这是因为他们没有接受移动残疾人士的合适训练，他们大部分都是对虐待没有退路的非法移民。朴女士观察指出，如果这些护工的报酬和培训得不到提高，不断老去的婴儿潮一代将会发现他们找不到能干的人来照料自己。
The traditional way for workers to protect themselves against exploitation has been to club together to form a trade union. In rich countries unions have been in decline in the private sector, but they remain powerful in the public sector and there are pockets of growth among people in vulnerable occupations. The National Domestic Workers Alliance, which was formed only four ye ars ago, has already got the state of New York to adopt America’s first bill of rights for people working in family homes, guaranteeing overtime pay, protection from discrimination and harassment, a minimum of one day’s rest a week and a minimum of three days’ paid leave a
year—not much, but better than nothing. Similar legislation is being debated in California.
工人保护自己免受剥削的传统方法是形成工会，富裕国家的工会在私人部门不断衰落，但在公共部门却始终强势，而且对于弱势行业的工人来说工会还有很大发展空间。全国住家工人联合会成立仅有4年，但已经成功地让纽约对住家工人施行了美国第一权利法案，保证加班工作、免受歧视和骚扰、每周至少一天休假以及一年至少3天的带薪假期——这些权利不多，但有总比没有好，同样的法案在加州也正在讨论中。
America’s Freelancers Union has also been growing rapidly. Set up in 1995, it now has 150,000 members and expects to add a further 100,000 in the next 18 months. It is very different from a traditional trade union in that it does not engage in collective bargaining with its members’ widely dispersed employers. Instead, it uses its members’ combined buying muscle to negotiate better terms for things like health care and pensions. It also runs fitness centres. In Britain, the Professional Contractors Group does something similar. ODesk has also negotiated benefits packages for contractors using its site.
成立于1995年的美国自由职业联盟也在快速成长，现在有15万会员，未来18个月预计会再增加10万会员。该联盟并不致力于和其会员分散四处的雇主统一谈判，这一点和传统的工会不同；联盟用会员的联合购买力量在其他事项方面谈判出更好的条件，比如医疗保健和养老金方面；联盟还有健身中心。在英国，职业承包商团体也做类似的事情。Odesk（一个外包商网站）用他们的网站为承包商们谈判到了一揽子福利。
This may be the start of a “new mutualism movement” that will be very different from traditional trade unionism, says Sara Horowitz, the Freelancers Union’s founder. “If work is goi ng to be more gig-like and short-term, the supportive safety-net institutions will need to be much more about enabling flexibility in the workforce.” This new movement will bring together mutual organisations, co-operatives, friendly societies and social-enterprise start-ups to build a “marketbased safety net” and exercise political influence to get better protection for members. It will get its power from information and aggregation. For example, the Freelancers Union is currently developing a “crowdsourced” system for rating employers on how promptly they pay contractors.
自由职业联盟创始人的萨拉.霍洛维茨说，这可能是不同于传统工会的“共生运动”的开始，“如果工作变得更加轻便和短期化，那么作为安全网的支持性机构也应该给工人们多些灵活性”。这种新运动可能会带来更多共生的合作组织、互助会和初创社会企业，由此建立起一个“基于市场的安全网”并施加政治影响为会员争取更多的保护，这类组织会从信息和集聚中获得力量。比如，自由职业联盟现在就在建立了一个“crowdsourced”系统，用来给雇主打分，评判他们是否合理地支付了承包商。
The Brain Activity Map 绘制大脑活动地图 Hard cell 棘手的细胞 An ambitious project to map the brain is in the works. Possibly too ambitious 一个绘制大脑活动地图的宏伟计划正在准备当中，或许有些太宏伟了 NEWS of what protagonists hope will be America’s next big science project continues to dribble out. 有关其发起人心中下一个科学大工程的新闻报道层出不穷。 A leak to the New York Times, published on February 17th, let the cat out of the bag, with a report that Barack Obama’s administration is thinking of sponsoring what will be known as the Brain Activity Map. 2月17日，《纽约时报》刊登的一位线人报告终于泄露了秘密，报告称奥巴马政府正在考虑赞助将被称为“大脑活动地图”的计划。 And on March 7th several of those protagonists published a manifesto for the project in Science. 3月7日，部分发起人在《科学》杂志上发表声明证实了这一计划。 The purpose of BAM is to change the scale at which the brain is understood. “大脑活动地图”计划的目标是改变人们在认知大脑时采用的度量方法。 At the moment, neuroscience operates at two disconnected levels. 眼下，神经学的研究处在两个断开的层次。 The higher one, where the dimensions of features are measured in centimetres, has many techniques at its disposal, notably functional magnetic-res onance imaging, which measures changes in tissues’ fuel consumption. 在相对宏观的层次当中各个特征的规模用厘米来衡量，有很多技术可以使用，尤其是用来测量组织中能量消耗变动情况的核磁共振成像技术。 This lets researchers see which bits of the brain are active in particular tasks—as long as those tasks can be performed by a person lying down inside a scanner. 该技术可使研究人员找出在完成具体的任务时，大脑的哪些部分处于活跃状态。At the other end of the scale, where features are measured in microns, lots of research has been done on how individual nerve cells work, how messages are sent from one to another, and how the connections between cells strengthen and weaken as memories are formed. 而另一个度量的层次则要求用微米来测量各种特征，这一层次的研究很多都是关于单个神经细胞是如何工作的、信息在神经细胞之间是如何传递的以及当产生记忆的时候神经细胞之间的联系是如何得到加强和减弱的。 Between these two, though, all is darkness. 然而，位于这两个层次之间的研究还处于一片漆黑当中。 It is like trying to navigate America with an atlas that shows the states, the big cities and the main highways, and has a few street maps of local neighbourhoods, but displays nothing in between.
《经济学家》读译参考（第13篇）：一路繁衍——你知道外来入侵物种吗？ Go forth and multiply 一往无前，生生不息 WHAT makes for a successful invasion? Often, the answer is to have better weapons than the enemy. And, as it is with people, so it is with plants—at least, that is the conclusion of a p_______①published in ★Biology Letters[1] by Naomi Cappuccino, of Carleton University, and Thor Arnason, of the University of Ottawa, both in Canada. 怎样才能成功入侵？答案常常是：拥有比敌人更好的武器。人是这样，植物也是如此——至少，《生物书简》上发表的一篇论文是这么认为的，作者是来自加拿大加里敦大学的纳奥米?卡普奇诺和渥太华大学的索尔?阿纳森。 The phenomenon of alien species ★popping up[2] in unexpected parts of the world has grown over the past few d________② as people and goods become more mobile and （1）?plant seeds and animal larvae have ★hitched[3] along for the ride?. Most such aliens blend into the ecosystem in which they arrive without too much fuss. (Indeed, many probably fail to establish themselves at all—but those failures, of course, are never noticed.) Occasionally, though, something ★goes bananas[4] and starts trying to take the place over, and an invasive species is born. Dr Cappuccino and Dr Arnason asked themselves w_______③. 过去的几十年，随着人和货物的流动日益频繁，植物种子和动物幼体也乘机“搭便车”四处播散，世界各地无意间出现了越来越多的外来物种。这些外来物种大多数都轻而易举地融入了所到之处的生态系统。（事实上，许多物种可能还没有站稳脚跟——当然，人们从未注意到这一点。）不过，偶尔也有某些物种疯狂繁殖，开始企图占领原有物种的生长空间，一种入侵物种就这样形成了。卡普奇诺和阿纳森对此感到百思不得其解。 One hypothesis is that aliens leave their predators b________④. Since the predators in their new homelands are not adapted to exploit them, they are able to reproduce unchecked. That is a nice idea, but it does not explain why only certain aliens become invasive. Dr Cappuccino and Dr Arnason suspected this might be because native predators are [b]（2）
Central banks 各国央行 Brave new words 大胆新言论 Rich-world central banks explore more doveish strategies 发达国家央行探索更加温和的政策 FOR four years rich-world central banks have done their best to rejuvenate economies with conventional and unconventional monetary policy. Now, with short-term interest rates still stuck near zero and their balance-sheets stuffed with government bonds, the central banks of America, Britain and Japan are experimenting with a shift in approach: coupling monetary action with commitments designed to alter the public’s expectati ons of interest rates, inflation and the economy. The sense of change is reinforced by the prospect of new leaders at the Japanese and British central banks, and the increasing prominence of several doves at America’s. 4年来，发达国家央行为经济复苏想尽了一切办法，常规和非常规货币政策你方唱罢我登场。时至今日，短期利率依然近乎于零，资产负债表上依然满是政府债券。美国、英国和日本央行正在尝试改变路线：为了改变公众对于利率、通胀和经济前景的预期，他们做出一系列承诺，并将货币政策与承诺相结合。日本和英国央行新领导人即将走马上任，加上美国几位鸽派人物的声音日益突出，使改变即将到来的感觉愈发强烈。 A more doveish stance would entail tolerating higher inflation, at least temporarily, in pursuit of higher output: a significant shift given the primacy central banks have long given to low inflation. Bond investors have begun to price in higher inflation (see chart). But just how far each central bank is prepared to go is still uncertain. 为了提高产值，更加温和的政策意味着必须要容忍更高水平的通胀，至少短期内会是如此：央行长期以来将低通胀率视为第一要务的政策即将迎来重大改变。一些大胆的投资人已经开始以更高的通胀率定价（见图）。但是各国央行的新政力度到底有多大尚不得而知。 In Japan, Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, has used the term “regime change” to describe the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ’s) agreement to raise its inflation targe t to 2% from 1%, and pursue it with unlimited asset purchases. There are expectations for even more forceful action once Masaaki Shirakawa, the current governor, and his two deputies depart on March 19th. Under Mr Shirakawa the BoJ bought lots more assets, but critics said he undercut the positive impact by repeatedly saying they were not enough to end deflation and by restricting the maturity of bonds the bank bought. 日本首相安倍晋三曾以“制度改革”一词来形容日本央行的政策变化。日本央行同意将通胀目标从1%提高到2%，并表示为了实现这一目标资产收购将不设上限。有人预期现任行长白川方明和两位副行长3月19日离任之后，会有力度更大的政策出台。白川在任期间日本央行购入了大量资产，但是有人批评到，由于白川经常强调购入的资产数量仍不足以结束通货紧缩，而且对买入债券的期限种类
China in Laos Busted flush How a Sino-Lao special economic zone hit the skids May 26th 2011 | BOTEN, LAOS | from the print edition ?Tweet ? Soon all this will be jungle again AT HOME and abroad, China is a byword for fast-track development, where yesterday’s paddy field is tomorrow’s factory, highway or hotel. Less noticed is that such development can just as quickly go into reverse. Golden City, in Boten, just over the border from China in tiny Laos, is a case in point. When a Hong Kong-registered company signed a 30-year, renewable lease with the Lao government in 2003 to set up a 1,640-hectare special economic zone built with mainland money and expertise, Golden City was touted as a
Iran’s election and the internet 伊朗总统选举与互联网 Behind a thick curtain 重重幕帘后的伊朗总统选举 In the run-up to the presidential poll, the authorities are blocking the web 总统选举民意测验姗姗走来，互联网转身离开 Jun 15th 2013| TEHRAN |From the print edition AFTER a string of strong performances on the world stage in recent years, Iran’s national kick-boxing team has had to drop out of an international championship in Greece this month. The Greek embassy in Tehran, citing “communications disruptions in Iran”, said that poor internet c onnectivity, which has drastically slowed down in the run-up to the presidential election on June 14th, was to blame. Apparently the Greeks could not get onto an essential server to process the fighters’ visas. “When the elections come, the internet goes,”explains a 31-year-old Iranian teacher. “We are behind a thick curtain at the moment. It happens at every election, even the parliamentary ones.” 这个月，曾经叱咤风云几度春秋的伊朗国家跆拳道队不得不黯然离开希腊国际大奖赛的舞台。希腊驻德黑兰大使馆指责伊朗境内几乎停滞的缓慢网速是罪魁祸首。6月14日，总统选举前夕，“伊朗出现了‘沟通混乱’”。慢得掉渣的网速使希腊大使馆完全无法展开正常工作，更别提给这些跆拳道选手们发放Visa了。“大选迎面走来，但是互联网离我们远去”，一个31岁的伊朗教师解释道，“一块深深幕帘遮挡住了我们。这种‘遮挡’发生在每次选举的前夕，即便是国会选举也是如此。” Wary of the role social networks and videos played in fomenting massive street protests after the disputed re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinej ad as president in 2009, the state’s cyber sleuths are taking no chances this time. Since March, virtual private networks (VPNs), the chief means whereby many of Iran’s 43m internet users evade censorship filters, have been blocked. This is the first time the authorities have managed so protracted and comprehensive a blockage of the VPNs, which means that thousands of foreign websites, including The Economist’s, are blocked, along with Twitter and Facebook. Users trying to get access to such sites are redirected to a slide-show of flowers and mosques. 2009年，内贾德几经波折，终于再次当选总统之后，席卷而来的社交网络与宣传短片煽动了规模庞大的街头抗议。这次教训使得今年的网络侦探们格外谨慎行事。早在三月份，虚拟的私营网络（VPNs）——这个曾经帮助43，000，000伊朗网民摆脱网络监视的“法宝”，就被政府封锁了。这是有史以来伊朗权威部门如此兴师动众地大规模封锁VPNs，这一举动意味着包括经济学人、推特、脸书等在内的成千上万的国外网站一同从伊朗网络上消失。那些仍不死心的网民打开输入这些网址时，发现进入的是一些满是鲜花与清真寺的幻灯片。 The only way netizens can reach censored sites is by using an array of “proxy” applications that work only sporadically and are considered less safe from the Revolutionary Guard’s snooping internet police. Speeds on these proxies are often intolerably slow, uploading virtually impossible. An owner of an engineering firm in Tehran says he has stopped sending technical drawings to clients over the net and uses an expensive private courier instead. 唯一的能打开这些“禁网”的方法就要靠一系列“代理软件”了。即便如此，这些软件也动不动就“罢工”。伊朗革命自卫队的网络警察眼里，这些网站极不安全。经过代理软件处理的网速通常是极其缓慢，想要下载任何东西几乎也是天方夜谭。德黑兰的一位工程公司的老板无奈地表示，形势逼迫他放弃了用网络给客户发技术草图，转
经济学人双语阅读1
经济学人杂志双语阅读 Consumer spending in Asia：Shopaholics wanted Consumer spending in Asia亚洲消费状况 Shopaholics wanted 购物狂时代该来了？ Jun 25th 2009 | HONG KONG From The Economist print edition Can Asians replace Americans as a driver of global growth? 亚洲人能够代替美国人做全球经济的发动机吗？ ASIA'S emerging economies are bouncing back much more strongly than any others. While America's industrial production continued to slide in May, output in emerging Asia has regained its pre-crisis level (see chart 1). This is largely due to China; but although production in the region's smaller economies is still well down on a year ago, it is rebounding in those countries too. Taiwan's industrial output rose by an annualised 80% in the three months to May compared with the previous three months. JPMorgan estimates that emerging Asia's GDP has grown by an annualised 7% in the second quarter. 时下亚洲新兴经济体们的恢复势头比其他任何国家都要迅猛。在美国工业生产继续下滑的5月，亚洲新兴国家的产出已经回到了它们危机前的水平(见表一)。这很大程度上要归功于中国，此外尽 管该地区较小经济体的生产比去年仍有所下降，但最近这些国家也
15年每周经济学人报刊中英文对照
空气污染英国需要采取更多措施来净化污浊的空气 Air pollution空气污染The big smoke雾都 Britain needs to do more to clean up its dirty air 英国需要采取更多措施来净化污浊的空气VISITING Oxford Street, a road teeming with tatty shops and overcrowded with people, is plainly a trial. Less plainly, levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a noxious gas, have been found to be around three times higher there than the legal limit. In 2013 the annual mean concentration of NO2 on the street was one of the highest levels found anywhere in Europe. 来到牛津街，你会看到街道两边布满了各式杂乱的商店，而道路上人满为患。行走在这条街上，很明显是个磨练。不为人觉察的是，这里有毒气体二氧化氮(NO2)测出含量超出法定水平的约三倍以上。２０１３年，这条街的NO2年均浓度是欧洲最高之一。 British air is far cleaner than it was a few decades ago. Fewer people use coal-burning stoves; old industrial plants have been decommissioned. But since 2009 levels of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter, coarse or fine particles that are linked to lung cancer and asthma, have fallen more slowly. The exact number of deaths caused by dirty air is unknown. But in 2010 a government advisory group estimated that removing man-made fine particulate matter from the atmosphere would increase life expectancy for those born in 2008 by an average of six months. 英国的空气比几十年前干净多了。使用燃煤炉灶的人越来越少；老工业厂已经停产。但自2009年起，氧 化氮、微粒物质、以及与肺癌和哮喘相关的粗、细颗粒含量的下降速度减慢了。因污浊空气所引发的死亡人数是未知的。但2010年，一个政府顾问组估算如果将大气中人为造成的微粒物质除去的话，2008年的出生人口人均寿命将增加六个月。 Much of the slowdown is the result of fumes from diesel cars, which were championed by successive governments because they use less fuel and thus produce less carbon dioxide than petrol cars. In 2001 only 14% of all cars ran on diesel; by 2013 the proportion had increased to 35%. (Greener “hybrid” and electric cars have increased ninefold since 2006, but account for just 0.5% of the entire fleet.) Second-hand cars are particularly noxious, but even newer ones have not been as clean as hoped. Many cars that belched out few pollutants in tests produced more when on the roads. 下降速度放缓的大部分原因在于柴油汽车排放的尾气—这为历任政府所支持，因为柴油汽车耗用更少的能源，比汽油汽车排放更少的二氧化碳。2001年，仅14%的汽车使用柴油。2013年，这个比例上涨到了35%。（更绿色的“混合动力”和电瓶车自2006年以来增加了九倍，但仅占汽车总量的0.5%。）二手汽 车尤其有害，但新车也没所期望的那样清洁。很多车在污染物排放测试中排放量低，车在上路时却排放了更多。 Climate change and geoengineering气候变化与地质工程学Fears of a bright planet 地球发光，令人担心Experiments designed to learn more about ways of geoengineering the climate should be allowed to proceed为更好地利用工程学手段研究气候问题所设计的实验应该获准进行下去。SHINY things absorb less heat when left in the sun. This means that if the Earth could be made a little shinier it would be less susceptible to global warming. Ways to brighten it, such as adding nanoscale specks of salt to low clouds, making them whiter, or putting a thin haze of particles into the stratosphere, are the province of “geoengineering”. The small band of scientists which have been studying this subject over the past decade or so have mostly been using computer models. Some of them are now proposing outdoor experiments—using seawater-fed sprayers to churn out particles of the exact size needed to brighten clouds, or spewing sulphur particles from underneath a large balloon 20km up in the sky.发光的物体放在太阳下面会吸收较少的热量。这就意味着如果让地球发一点光的话，受到全球变暖的影响就会小一些。让地球发光的方式，比方说在低空云层上添加纳米级的盐微粒，让云变得更白，或者是将一层薄的雾状物洒向平流层，这些都属于地质工程学的范畴。过去十年左右研究这一领域的一小批科学家主要使用计算机模型，其中一些人现在提出要做室外实验――就是用装有
【经济学人】双语阅读：政治遗传学人体政治 Science and technology 科学技术 The genetics of politics 政治遗传学 Body politic 人体政治 Slowly, and in some quarters grudgingly, the influence of genes in shaping political outlook and behaviour is being recognized 在某些方面，塑造政治前景和行为的基因影响正在慢慢地被人们所接受，虽然还是不情愿。 IN 1882 W.S. Gilbert wrote, to a tune by Sir Arthur Sullivan, a ditty that went I often think it's comical how Nature always does contrive/that every boy and every gal that's born into the world alive/is either a little Liberal or else a little Conservative. 在1882年，W.S吉尔伯特写的一首小诗-是为阿瑟-沙利文爵士的一首曲子而作，我一直认为，大自然的精工雕作是那么可笑/每个出生到这个世界上，并存活下来的男孩和女孩们/不是有一点自由倾向，就是有一点保守。 In the 19th century, that view, though humorously intended, would not have been out of place among respectable thinkers. 在十九世纪，这个观点虽然有一点幽默的意味，但是在那些备受尊敬的思想家眼中，也并不是一无是处。 The detail of a man's opinion might be changed by circumstances. 一个人意见的详细观点可能会由于环境而改变。 But the idea that much of his character was ingrained at birth held no terrors. 但是，这种与生俱来的，由他的性格决定的观念也没什么恐怖的。 It is not, however, a view that cut much ice in 20th-century social-scientific thinking, particularly after the second world war. 然而，它在二十世纪的社会科学思想中没有占到一席之地，特别是二战之后。 Those who allowed that it might have some value were generally shouted down and sometimes abused, along with all others vehemently suspected of the heresy of believing that genetic differences between individuals could have a role in shaping their behavioural differences. 那些认为它有一些价值的人们发出的呐喊，通常会被持不同观点人们的声音所掩盖，有时还会遭到辱骂，和那些对当时的异端邪说----即个体之间的遗传差异在塑造他们各自不同的行为上起了一定的作用----有些猜测的人们一样受到不公平对待。
来源于https://www.doczj.com/doc/6e14591339.html,/wordpress/（The Economist《经济学人》中文版）和https://www.doczj.com/doc/6e14591339.html,/（《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版） 11月10, 2008 [2008.11.08] 美国大选：无限期望 America's election：Great expectations NO ONE should doubt the magnitude of what Barack Obama achieved this week. When the president-elect was born, in 1961, many states, and not just in the South, had laws on their books that enforced segregation, banned mixed-race unions like that of his parents and restricted voting rights. This week America can claim more credibly that any other western country to have at last become politically colour-blind. Other milestones along the road to civil rights have been passed amid bitterness and bloodshed. This one was marked by joy, white as well as black (see article). 相信无人质疑奥巴马于本周取胜的重要意义。这位新总统出生于1961年，那时美国很多州的法律都要求强化种族分离、禁止像奥巴马父母那样的跨族通婚、限制选举权利；这些不仅限于南部地区，而出现在全国范围内。从本周开始，美国可以更加自信的宣称：任何其他的西方国家都变得有些政治色盲了。在通向民权的道路上，其它里程碑似的重大历史事件都是在痛苦与血泊中通过的；而此次总统选举则以愉快著称，受到了包括白人及黑人在内的全国选民的称赞。 Mr Obama lost the white vote, it is true, by 43-55%; but he won almost exactly same share of it as the last three (white) Democratic candidates; Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry. And he won heavily among younger white voters. America will now have a president with half-brothers in Kenya, old schoolmates in Indonesia and a view of the world that seems to be based on respect rather than confrontation. 奥巴马丢掉了大约43%-55%的白人选票，这是不争的事实；但他与过去三位白人民主党候选人–克林顿、戈尔和肯尼迪–得到的白人选票几乎相同。同时，他在年轻一代的白人选民中取得了重大胜利。这位新总统有一个同父异母的兄弟在肯尼亚，有老同学在印尼，他的世界观似乎建立在尊重而不是对抗的基础之上。 That matters. Under George Bush America’s international standing has sunk to awful lows. This week Americans voted in record-smashing numbers for many reasons, but one of them was an abhorrence of how their shining city’s reputation has been tarnished. Their country will now be easier for its friends to like and harder for its foes to hate. 这很重要。在布什治下，美国的国际声誉降到了糟糕地步。本周美国选民的投票数量突破了历史纪录，其中原因很多，有一个就是他们对曾经辉煌无比的城市形象已然黯淡无光而感到愤恨。现在他们的国家将会更易赢得朋友的喜爱，而不易引起敌人的仇恨。 In its own way the election illustrates this redeeming effect. For the past eight years the debacle in Florida in 2000 has been cited (not always fairly) as an example of shabby American politics. Yet here was a clear victory delivered by millions of volunteers-and by the intelligent use of technology to ride a wave of excitement that is all too rare in most democracies. Mr Obama showed that, with the right message, a candidate with no money or machine behind him can build his own.
经济学人杂志双语阅读：Fatalism v fetishism宿命论VS进口至上说 Economics focus 经济聚焦 Fatalism v fetishism 宿命论VS进口至上说 Jun 11th 2009 From The Economist print edition How will developing countries grow after the financial crisis? 金融危机后发展中国家将如何成长？ FORTY years ago Singapore, now home to the world's busiest port, was a forlorn outpost still garrisoned by the British. In 1961 South Korea was less industrialised than the communist north and dependent on American aid. In 1978 China's exports amounted to less than 5% of its GDP. These countries, and many of their neighbours, have since traded their way out of poverty. Given their success, it is easy to forget that some development economists were once prey to “export fatalism”. Poor countries, they believed, had little to gain from venturing into the world market. If they tried to expand their exports, they would thwart each other, driving down the price of their commodities. 现今世界最繁忙的港口坐落于新加坡-在40年前它还只是英国人驻军的遥远哨所。1961年的南朝鲜靠美国援助度日，在产业化的路上远远落后于他们北面的社会主义邻居。1987年的中国出口额占GDP总量不到5%。之后，这些国家和他们的邻居们靠开放商路脱离了贫穷。在这些国家成功的光环下，过去许多发展经济学家深受“出口宿命说”(注一)折磨的往事被淡忘了。他们曾经相信，穷国投身全球市场并无利可图。一旦他们试图扩大出口，那么穷国之间便会互相伤害并造成他们出产的商品价格下降。 The financial crisis of the past nine months is stirring a new export fatalism in the minds of some economists. Even after the global economy recovers, developing countries may find it harder to pursue a policy of “export-led growth”, which served countries like South Korea so well. Under this strategy, sometimes called “export fetishism”, countries spur sales abroad, often by keeping their curr encies cheap. Some save the proceeds in foreign-currency reserves, rather than spending them on imports. This strategy is one reason why the developing world's current-account surplus exceeded $700 billion in 2008, as measured by the IMF. In the past, these surpluses were offset by American deficits. But America may now rethink the bargain. This imbalance, whereby foreigners sell their goods to America in exchange for its assets, was one potential cause of the country's financial crisis. 过去九个月里的金融危机在某些经济学家的脑海里搅起了新的出口宿命论。就算是在金融危机过后，也许发展中 国家也可能会觉得他们要想采用那种使南朝鲜一类的国家受益颇多的“出口带动型增长”政策变得更加困难了。在这种被称为“出口至上主义”的策略下，政府常以保持本国货币的廉价来激励跨国贸易。一些国家选择把出口收益存入外汇储备，而不是用它们来进口。国际货币基金组织统计出，2008年发展中国家的经常账户(注二)有7千亿美元的结余，这(出口至上主义的策略)也许就是原因之一。在过去，这些结余会被美国的贸易逆差抵消。但是美国现在可能要重新考虑一下