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新西兰央行December 2015 Monetary Policy Statement

Monetary Policy Statement December 2015

Projections finalised on 27 November 2015. Data finalised on 3 December 2015. Policy assessment finalised on 9 December 2015.

Contents

1. Policy assessment 3

2. Key policy judgements 4

3. International developments 11

4. Current domestic conditions 18

5. The macroeconomic outlook 30

Chapter 1 Policy assessment

The Reserve Bank today reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent.

Globally, economic growth is below average and inflation is low, despite highly stimulatory monetary conditions. Financial markets remain concerned about weaker growth in emerging economies, particularly in China. Markets are also focused on the expected tightening of policy in the United States and the prospect of an increasing divergence between monetary policies in the major economies.

Growth in the New Zealand economy has softened over 2015, due mainly to lower terms of trade. Combined with increases in the labour supply from strong net immigration, the slowdown has seen an increase in spare capacity and unemployment. A recovery in export prices, the recent lift in confidence, and increasing domestic demand from the rising population are expected to see growth strengthen over the coming year. The New Zealand dollar has risen since August, partly reversing the depreciation that occurred from April. The rise in the exchange rate

is unhelpful and further depreciation would be appropriate in order to support sustainable growth.

House price inflation in Auckland remains high, posing a financial stability risk. Residential building is accelerating, and recent tax and LVR measures are expected to reduce housing pressures. There are some CPI inflation is below the 1 to 3 percent target range, mainly due to the earlier strength in the New Zealand dollar and the 65 percent fall in world oil prices since mid-2014. The inflation rate is expected to move inside the target range from early 2016, as earlier petrol price declines will drop out of the annual calculation, and the lower New Zealand dollar will be reflected in higher tradables prices.

There are a number of uncertainties and risks to this outlook. In the primary sector, there are risks that dairy prices remain weak for longer, and the current El Ni?o results in drought conditions and weaker output. Risks to the domestic outlook include the prospect of net immigration staying high for longer and of household expenditure picking up on the back of strong house prices.

Monetary policy needs to be accommodative to help ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range. We expect to achieve this at current interest rate settings, although the Bank will reduce rates if circumstances warrant. We will continue to watch closely the emerging flow of economic data.

Graeme Wheeler

Governor

Chapter 2

Key policy judgements

The New Zealand economy continues to expand, albeit at a slower rate than in 2014. The deceleration follows a large fall in the terms of trade, and together with strong labour force growth has contributed to an increase in spare capacity in the economy. Annual CPI inflation remains low at 0.4 percent, but is expected to move into the 1 to 3 percent target range in the first quarter of 2016. This will take headline inflation closer to estimates of ‘core’ inflation, which have been centred around 1.5 percent for the past three years. Core measures give a useful signal about the trend in inflation, because they are persistent and tend to move in line with the economic drivers of inflation.

The near-term pick-up in inflation is expected to stem from two factors. First, earlier petrol price falls will drop out of the annual calculation. Second, the New Zealand dollar has depreciated about 10 percent since April, which is now passing into higher prices for tradable goods. Appreciation of the exchange rate since the September Statement means that the outlook for tradables and headline inflation through 2016 is lower than previously projected.

Over the medium term, non-tradables inflation is expected to rise steadily as output growth increases, with some offset in the near term from reductions in ACC vehicle levies. Rapid labour force expansion – through net immigration – is expected to continue moderating upward pressure on inflation. Nonetheless, the stronger outlook for growth implies that the pick-up in non-tradables inflation is projected to be slightly faster than in September.

With inflation projected to increase in the near term, core inflation measures well within the target range, and inflation expectations consistent with the target midpoint, the appropriate course for monetary policy is to support a steady, gradual increase in inflation over the medium term (figures 2.1 and 2.2). Interest rates are currently stimulatory, and the depreciation in the exchange rate since April has provided further support to the tradables sector.

This policy path is consistent with the Policy Targets Agreement (PTA), which sets out a flexible approach to targeting future medium-term inflation. The flexibility reflects the fact that interest rates take 18 to 24 months to have their full effect on inflation, and cannot offset short-term inflation movements. The PTA states that monetary policy should focus on the medium-term trend in inflation when temporary factors, like the recent drop in global oil prices, push CPI inflation away from target in the short term.

Clause 4b of the PTA says that subject to meeting the medium-term inflation target, monetary policy should avoid causing unnecessary

instability in output, interest rates, and the exchange rate, and should have regard to financial system soundness and efficiency. With inflation expected to increase steadily, consistent with the inflation target, a much sharper adjustment in interest rates than projected risks being inconsistent with clause 4b of the PTA, and could not change near-term inflation outcomes.

The outlook for the economy and monetary policy in this Statement

depends on a number of key judgements. Four of the most important are that: ?

migration will add about another 3 percent to the working age population and labour force over the three-year projection;?

El Ni?o conditions will continue, but not result in a significant decline in output;

?

trading partner growth will continue at about its current rate, and world dairy prices will recover slowly towards their long-run average; and

?

consumers will remain cautious, with growth in household credit modest compared with the mid-2000s expansion.

Migration and droughts affect supply capacity in the economy directly, the first through the size of the labour force and the second through growing conditions on farms and electricity generation. It can take some time to get clarity about the overall effects of changes in supply capacity, because they can be persistent and their transmission through the economy remains gradual. As chapter 3 notes, there is considerable uncertainty about the global outlook.

We have seen migration cycles, droughts, changes in global demand and consumer behaviour in the past, and observed how they flow through the economy. History provides a helpful, but imperfect, guide to how things could play out in the future. Both the events themselves and how they flow through the economy will vary from cycle to cycle.

The following discussion outlines what we see as key risks to the

above judgements, and what these risks could imply for the economic outlook and monetary policy. Chapter 5 goes into further detail, looking

at the outcomes for our projections in scenarios where things turn out differently.

Over coming quarters, careful observation of data will be important for understanding whether things might indeed be playing out differently. Box A describes how developments in data have influenced our assessment and policy outlook over the past two years. We will continue to update our assessment and policy settings at each of our regular policy reviews, and to publish a full set of updated projections each quarter.

Net immigration

Record net immigration is adding materially to demand and to labour supply. Given continued strong flows, we have revised up our projection for net immigration (see chapter 5). Based on the cycle to date, we assume the future population boost and associated increases in the labour force will translate more quickly into supply potential than we have assumed in the past.

That has important implications for monetary policy. Under the assumptions we have made, higher-than-expected net inflows would result in upward revisions to our growth projections but the implications for inflationary pressure and monetary policy could be modest. That said, any or all of the projected net inflow, demand effects, and supply contribution could turn out differently than assumed. Monitoring data on the labour market and the composition of migration flows – in particular, on the contribution to the labour force – will be especially important.

El Ni?o

The Pacific region is experiencing El Ni?o conditions. However, given the range of New Zealand weather outcomes possible in an El Ni?o, we have not assumed a drought in our central projection. Instead we have treated drought as a risk.

As noted above, the initial econ o mic effects of a drought are on the economy’s supply capacity. Monetary policy cannot offset any near-term effects on inflation, and should focus on whether weaker confidence and spending through the wider economy weaken the medium-term inflation outlook. The path of monetary policy may not need to change materially if a drought were short-lived and the exchange rate depreciated, supporting incomes and confidence through the wider economy. However, if the effect of the drought were more persistent, or if the exchange rate did not adjust, more-stimulatory monetary policy may be warranted.

World growth and export prices

The sharp fall in world dairy prices since 2014 has been a key driver of the reduction in GDP growth in the New Zealand economy, and of the lower outlook for inflationary pressure. While prices have recovered from their trough and are assumed to continue rising over the next three years, the rise is assumed to be gradual. However, vulnerabilities remain in the economies of some of New Zealand’s Asian trading partners. Any development that slows economic growth in the region – in particular,

a further slowdown in China – would likely delay that recovery in export prices. This would warrant a mix of a lower New Zealand dollar exchange rate and more-stimulatory monetary policy. To the extent that the exchange rate did not depreciate in line with the growth and inflation outlook, more monetary policy stimulus might be needed. Consumer behaviour

Cautious consumer behaviour is a feature of this projection. Consumption growth has been close to that in labour incomes, with household saving higher than in the previous cycle. We assume that consumers will smooth their spending through the current dip in national income growth. However, a stronger pick-up in consumption is a plausible risk, especially if high net immigration, low interest rates, and rising house prices combine to increase confidence and willingness to borrow for consumption. Such a scenario would warrant less monetary stimulus than is currently projected.

Table 2.1

Key forecast variables

Chapter 3 International developments

The global economic environment has deteriorated over 2015. Growth in New Zealand’s trading partners has slowed, and forecasts have been revised down. Monetary policy remains accommodative in most regions, and has been eased further over 2015. Trading partner inflation remains weak, reflecting slack in the global economy and declines in oil prices. Global financial markets have settled since the September Statement. Market participants perceive that the risk of a sharp reduction in Chinese growth has reduced and are less uncertain about the monetary policy outlook in the United States. However, prospects for China and the divergent outlook for monetary policy between the United States and other major economies remain key drivers of financial markets.

Trading partner outlook

Growth in New Zealand’s main trading partners has slowed slightly, to an estimated annual rate of 3.4 percent in the September quarter from 3.6 percent a year earlier. The slowing has been concentrated in Asia and Australia, with most economies in the region growing at a below-trend pace. Growth in the United States, the euro area, and other major advanced economies has continued at a moderate pace (figure 3.1).

Despite significant monetary stimulus, trading partner growth is expected to increase only slightly in 2016 – a softer outlook than a few months ago. Especially important for New Zealand are the weaker outlooks for Asia and Australia, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for around 75 percent of New Zealand’s merchandise exports.

China in particular is an important trading partner for New Zealand, and has an outsized influence on global commodity demand and prices. Growth in China has continued to slow in 2015. Part of the slowdown

in growth is structural, as economic reforms continue and the economy rebalances towards more consumption-led growth. This should support demand for New Zealand’s consumer-focused goods and services exports. There is also a cyclical element to the slowdown in Chinese growth. Growth in fixed asset investment, particularly in the real estate sector, has continued to slow.

Concerns about a hard landing in Chinese growth have reduced since September – in part due to further easing in monetary and fiscal policies by the Chinese authorities. That said, considerable uncertainty remains about the global outlook, and especially so for China and the rest of Asia. The risks remain skewed to the downside.

Growth in global industrial production and trade volumes have slowed over the past year (figure 3.2). Accounting for part of the slowdown in global trade growth has been a reduction in Chinese import volumes, which were 6 percent lower in October than a year earlier. This partly reflects a reduced reliance on imports from the rest of Asia, and slowing growth in China’s import-intensive investment and industrial production.

Also contributing to low growth in global trade in recent years has been the composition of growth in advanced economies. The recoveries in major advanced economies have remained heavily skewed

towards consumption and services, which have a relatively low import component.

In the United States, consumer spending has remained the key component of growth, supported by continued improvement in the

labour market, strong growth in real disposable income, and increasing net wealth. Residential investment is also growing solidly, as conditions in the housing market have continued to improve. However, growth in industrial output and exports have been more subdued, dampened by weaker activity in the energy sector, a stronger US dollar, and weak external demand. Likewise in Europe, domestic demand has been the key component of growth, supported by a gradually improving labour

market, low oil prices, and extremely accommodative monetary policy. Net exports, after being strong in the first half of this year, are expected to weigh on growth over the next year due to weak external demand.

Weak external demand has weighed on economic growth in New Zealand’s Asian trading partners. GDP growth in Asia excluding Japan and China slowed to an estimated 3 percent in the September quarter, down from 4.2 percent a year earlier. This was much weaker than forecast a year ago (figure 3.3).

The value of exports from the Asian region has declined substantially over the past year (figure 3.4), with the decline widespread across countries. While the fall in exports is exaggerated by a fall in USD-denominated export prices, export volumes have also fallen. There are signs that weakness in external demand has begun to weigh on domestic demand in the region, particularly on investment.

There have been widespread declines in commodity prices over the past year as demand growth, especially from China, has slowed and as the supply of many commodities has continued rising. The largest price declines have been for energy and industrial commodities. The prices of agricultural-based commodities have fallen by less.

Low oil prices have boosted real incomes for New Zealand and most of New Zealand’s trading partners. The price of Brent Crude oil has fallen

a further 6 percent since the September Statement to below USD45 per barrel, about 60 percent lower than in mid-2014. Global oil supply has continued to increase, meaning global oil inventories remain near record

highs. The significant imbalance in global oil markets is expected to persist for at least the next year.

Industrial commodities have especially been under pressure since

the September Statement, with the Bloomberg index of industrial

metal prices falling 15 percent. Downward pressure on metal prices is important for Australia, with iron ore accounting for around one fifth of its total exports.

Annual GDP growth in Australia remains below trend, at 2.5 percent in the September quarter. While growth in commodity export volumes has been boosting GDP growth, the substantial deterioration in the terms

of trade in the past few years has weighed on national income growth. Sharp declines in capital expenditure have been a significant headwind to growth, as mining investment has continued to fall, while non-mining business investment has remained subdued, despite improving business

conditions. Low interest rates are supporting household demand with consumption growing at a moderate pace, and residential investment at a very high level. The labour market also appears to have stabilised, with the unemployment rate having been around 6 percent for most of this year.

CPI inflation in New Zealand’s trading partners has declined substantially over the past year, largely due to the decline in oil prices. CPI inflation

in these economies is expected to pick up sharply over the next year as the decline in oil prices drops out of the annual calculation (figure 3.5). Nonetheless, core inflation across a number of New Zealand’s trading partners – both advanced and emerging economies – is subdued, and below most central banks’ targets. Excess capacity in global manufacturing and subdued commodity prices continue to weigh on prices of internationally traded goods. At the same time, economic slack in many countries is dampening domestic inflationary pressures. Across New Zealand’s trading partners, core inflation is expected to trend modestly higher over the projection, as economic slack is absorbed gradually. As a result, monetary policy settings are expected to remain accommodative for an extended period in many regions. However, as discussed below, there are important divergences in the outlook for monetary policy between the United States and many other major economies.

Global financial conditions

Global financial market volatility has reduced since the September Statement (figure 3.6).

Reasons for increased global market volatility in August and September were perceived risks of a hard landing in Chinese growth and substantial volatility in Chinese equities. The risks of an immediate hard landing for the Chinese economy have receded, and equity markets have stabilised, following monetary policy easing and other steps by the Chinese authorities to support output growth. Capital outflows from China and other emerging market economies have also slowed considerably.Also contributing to volatility in August and September was uncertainty about when the United States Federal Reserve would increase interest rates. The target range for the federal funds rate was kept unchanged in September, and market participants have become more confident that the Federal Reserve will increase the target range by 25 basis points in December, reflecting improvements in the labour market and domestic demand.

As those risks have receded, market moves have been driven more by diverging monetary policy outlooks – particularly between the United States and the rest of the world. The increased expectations for tighter monetary policy in the United States have resulted in US bond yields increasing, with the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury bond rate now at a five-year high. While the timing of the start of the tightening cycle is important, so is the pace and extent of interest rate increases. Market pricing implies the pace of tightening will be slow.

The policy outlook is very different for the euro area, with the European Central Bank (ECB) easing monetary policy further in early December in an effort to boost growth and increase inflation. The ECB lowered

its deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.30 percent and extended its quantitative easing programme until at least March 2017, although market participants had expected even more easing. The outlook for accommodative monetary policy has lowered bond yields across the region, increasing the divergence between United States and euro area bond rates and resulting in a weaker euro. The two-year German government bond yield fell as low as -0.44 percent (figure 3.7). At the same time the United States two-year yield has risen to above 0.90 percent, resulting in the largest positive differential since 2006. Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative in many of New Zealand’s other trading partners. The Reserve Bank of Australia

has moved to an explicit easing bias, as inflation has softened more

than expected. However, markets have only a moderate expectation

of further easing priced in at this point. The Bank of Japan has kept its policy settings unchanged since September, but has pushed back when it expects to reach its 2 percent inflation target. Many analysts believe further stimulus will be required in 2016. While the Bank of England is still expected to be the next major central bank after the Federal Reserve to increase its policy rate, market expectations have been pushed back until late 2016, as inflation remains low and as external demand has softened. Market moves since the September Statement have largely been driven by improved risk sentiment and diverging monetary policy. More positive risk sentiment since October has resulted in a rebound in equity prices, although most major indices remain below the levels traded at prior to August (figure 3.8). Meanwhile, longer-dated government bond yields have risen since the September Statement, with the increase in rates in the United States flowing through to several other countries, including New Zealand (figure 3.9). Despite the increase across some countries, 10-year government bond yields remain below highs seen earlier in the year and are low relative to historic rates.

The divergence in monetary policy outlooks across regions has had a substantial impact on exchange rates. The US dollar has strengthened significantly since the middle of 2014, with the US Dollar Index up about 25 percent over this time. A key risk is the potential impact of

a stronger US dollar on some emerging markets, because it makes debt denominated in US dollars more expensive and may help to trigger capital outflows. This risk has diminished since the September Statement, with emerging market currencies generally appreciating against the US dollar (figure 3.10), and capital outflows slowing or starting to reverse. Nevertheless, risks remain given the potential for

further US dollar strengthening as the United States tightening cycle gets under way.

Trends in global monetary policy settings are important for New Zealand – particularly for the New Zealand dollar. While policy tightening in the United States may lead to a lower NZD/USD exchange rate, other New Zealand dollar cross rates may depreciate by less. This reflects the prospect of further easing, or delayed tightening, of monetary policy by New Zealand’s other trading partners. International moves in longer-term bond yields also affect New Zealand interest rates, as evidenced by the recent increase in New Zealand 10-year government bond yields, although near-term rates – which are more relevant for mortgage rates – are less affected.

Chapter 4

Current domestic conditions

Economic growth in New Zealand has moderated over the first half

of 2015. Much of this moderation relates to the substantial decline in prices for New Zealand’s commodity exports since early 2014, which has weighed on incomes and confidence. Commodity export prices have recovered from their lows in recent months. In addition, monetary conditions have become more stimulatory over 2015 as a result of declining mortgage rates and depreciation of the New Zealand dollar TWI. Quarterly economic growth appears to have increased slightly over the second half of 2015. Growth in the economy’s productive capacity remains strong, reflecting record high net immigration. Spare capacity in the New Zealand economy has increased over the past year, particularly in the labour market. Correspondingly, core inflation has remained subdued.

Domestic financial market developments Domestic monetary conditions have eased since the beginning of 2015, with interest rates and the exchange rate having fallen substantially over the year. Interest rates have continued to edge lower since the September Statement. The New Zealand dollar TWI has recovered some of its earlier declines, driven by a number of international and domestic factors.

New Zealand wholesale interest rates have fallen significantly over 2015, initially as expectations for interest rate rises were pared back over the first six months of the year, and then as the OCR was cut by 25 basis points in each of June, July and September. Lower global interest rates owing to more accommodative global monetary policy have also contributed to the decline.

The decline in wholesale interest rates has translated into falls in domestic mortgage rates, in many cases to record low levels. Since

the beginning of the year, one- and two-year fixed mortgage rates have fallen by more than 125 basis points (figure 4.1). Most fixed mortgage rates are lower than in the period over 2011-2014, when the OCR was at 2.50 percent. This is primarily because bank funding costs have fallen, allowing the spread between wholesale and fixed mortgage rates to decline. Wholesale rates are also near their previous lows, as financial markets are pricing in further easing in the OCR.

Households have continued to move to fixed-rate mortgages in recent months, with the proportion on floating mortgage rates falling to 24 percent in October from a peak of more than 60 percent in April 2012

2015年央行重要货币政策汇总

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2015年3月30日,人民银行、住建部、银监会联合印发了《关

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