Commercial Aviation China Market Outlook
2014-2033
Low-Cost Carrier Model in Regional Aviation China Regional Aircraft
Market Forecast
Definitions
China Market Outlook
2014-2033
Join us as we build a bright future for the Chinese regional aviation market.
Guan Dongyuan
Senior Vice President, Embraer
President, Embraer China
6Global
Market
Overview
Global Air Transportation Market Overview Over the past 40 years, the global air transport industry has been characterized by strong growth rates. Although the global air transport system has faced frequent downturns, it has withstood external shocks and has always maintained normal growth.Embraer foresees a 4.8% year-over-year increase in revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) over the next two decades. The Middle East will be the fastest-growing region with 7.1% average annual PRK growth, followed by China with 6.8%, Latin America with 6.0%, the Asia-Pacific region with 5.4%, Africa with 5.3% and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) with 5.2%. Developed economies will grow less due to their market maturity - Europe at 3.9% and North America at 2.7%.By 2033, global air transport demand is expected to increase 2.6 times, reaching 13.6 trillion RPKs. The Asia-Pacific region and China will be the largest markets in the world, accounting for 40% of global RPKs. Europe and North America will follow at 36% of global RPKs. The main drivers of future growth are:· full recovery of the economy of the United States and Europe · rapid economic growth in emerging markets · surge of an urban middle class and its purchasing power · more liberal industry regulation · increased competition and search for business efficiency · vigorous promotion of energy-saving technology Global Economic Trends - Overview The average annual global GDP growth rate is expected to be 3.2% over the next 20 years. The average annual growth rate in emerging economies is expected to reach 5.0% while that of developed economies will be 2.0%. China remains the economy with the fastest growth rate (5.5%) while Africa ranks second with 4.6%, followed by the Middle East with 3.9% and Latin America with 3.8%. The average annual growth rates in North America and Europe are expected to be 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively.However, downside economic risks still loom large in the future. Ukraine's domestic political conflict led to serious friction among the United States, the European Union and Russia, especially economic sanctions between the EU and Russia, which have seriously hampered economic development. Volatility in the Euro zone financial markets increased. China’s overheated economy led to austerity measures and credit restrictions. Infrastructure bottlenecks and regional conflicts in emerging markets led to disruption of oil exports and transportation. These, together with other factors, will undoubtedly produce unfavorable effects on the global economy.Urban Middle Class to Surge in Emerging Economies More than half of the world’s population lives in urban areas. Around half of the population in the Asia-Pacific region and China is expected to live in urban areas by 2020. Half of all Africans will live in cities by 2035.The surge in purchasing power of the world’s urban middle class is correlates to the effects
Source: INNOVATA
Source: Civil Aviation Administration Of China Source: Civil Aviation Administration Of China