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The Perils of Power Sharing

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Adrienne LeBas

Journal of Democracy, Volume 25, Number 2, April 2014, pp. 52-66 (Article) 3XEOLVKHG E\ 7KH -RKQV +RSNLQV 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV

DOI: 10.1353/jod.2014.0035

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A New Twilight in Zimbabwe?

The Perils of Power sharing

Adrienne LeBas

Adrienne LeBas is assistant professor of government at American Uni-versity. She is the author of From Protest to Parties: Party-Building and Democratization in Africa (2011).

O n 31 July 2013, President Robert Mugabe and his party, the Zim-babwe African National Union–Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), claimed victory in concurrent presidential, parliamentary, and local-government elections. The official results gave Mugabe a margin of nearly a mil-lion votes over Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T), Mugabe’s longtime rival and also his partner in a power-sharing arrangement since 2009. Parliamentary results were sim-ilarly decisive: The MDC-T lost seats in provinces that it had dominated since 2000, and also lost control of several local-government councils. ZANU-PF increased its share of the 210-member House of Assembly from 45 percent to more than 70 percent of the seats. Most important, the elections terminated a power-sharing arrangement between ZANU-PF and the opposition that had resulted in the rebuilding of Zimbabwe’s economy, the resumption of foreign-aid flows, and the restoration of basic services such as health care and education.

ZANU-PF made electoral gains without recourse to violence or visible intimidation, leading some observer missions, such as that of the African Union (AU), to laud the elections as “free, fair, and credible.” The United States, the United Kingdom, and others, however, rejected the results, cit-ing election irregularities and an uneven electoral playing field. Evidence points to some electoral manipulation, which likely occurred due to a great-ly flawed voter roll. But the easy explanations for the opposition’s stun-ning electoral reversal—repression and manipulation by ZANU-PF—do not seem sufficient. The MDC had faced consistent repression, violence, and electoral manipulation throughout the 2000s, yet previous elections were highly competitive. Until July 2013, there was cause for optimism about an eventual election-led transition in Zimbabwe. What changed?

Journal of Democracy Volume 25, Number 2 April 2014

? 2014 National Endowment for Democracy and Johns Hopkins University Press

Adrienne LeBas

53 So far, most analyses have focused more on whether the 2013 elec-tion results were rigged than on why four years of power sharing failed to level the electoral playing field. In my view, there are two main rea-sons that power sharing undermined—rather than enhanced—the pros-pects for democratization in Zimbabwe. First, there were significant flaws in the structure and the implementation of the 2008 Global Politi-cal Agreement (GPA), the three-party accord that governed the power-sharing arrangement. The GPA’s lack of strong enforcement mecha-nisms allowed institutional reforms to be only partially implemented or postponed indefinitely. The GPA also failed to address the biggest obstacles to democratization in Zimbabwe: the politicized nature of the military and police and the culture of impunity created by many years of state-sponsored violence. Second,power sharing brought the opposition into government, reducing its ability to run as an outside challenger and making it difficult for the party to claim credit for concrete policy gains. The MDC’s participation in the inclusive government also compromised its organizational strength and mobilizing reach. Key staff were divert-ed to government offices, grassroots structures were neglected, and ties with the party’s civil society allies frayed.

Thus ZANU-PF’s success in the 2013 elections was due partly to rigging and manipulation but also to a genuine erosion of opposition support and organizational strength. Both issues can be traced to the perverse dynamics of power sharing in Zimbabwe. Some deficiencies stem from the design of the agreement and the reluctance of its for-eign backers, notably South Africa, to enforce the GPA’s provisions. But Zimbabwe’s experience suggests a deeper tension in power-sharing agreements: They may be effective in ending immediate crises, but they do not necessarily push countries away from entrenched authoritarian-ism toward democratization.1 Particularly where opposition parties have a shot at winning flawed elections, competition—not negotiation—may be a surer path to democracy in the long run.

Zimbabwe’s most recent period of political crisis began in 2000. Af-ter nearly fifteen years of political dominance by ZANU-PF, a loose co-alition of civil society groups and organized labor succeeded in defeat-ing a proposed constitution in a March referendum. Even in ZANU-PF’s heartland, the three Mashonaland provinces in north-central and north-eastern Zimbabwe, many voted against the government’s proposed con-stitution. Outside these provinces, more than 60 percent of Zimbabwe-ans voted no in the referendum. Even more troubling from ZANU-PF’s perspective, the “no”-vote alliance soon launched an opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), that seemed poised to win parliamentary elections in June.

In response to the rising opposition threat, ZANU-PF resorted to vio-lence and repression. ZANU-PF activists and veterans of Zimbabwe’s liberation war led large-scale invasions of white-owned commercial

54Journal of Democracy farms. In rural areas, they attacked MDC candidates and activists, as well as those perceived to be MDC supporters. Up to 10,000 MDC sup-porters took refuge in the cities, and as many as 200,000 commercial-farm workers and their families were internally displaced.

Despite the violence, the MDC still won 48 percent of the parliamen-tary seats contested in the June 2000 elections. The MDC largely main-tained this level of support in subsequent contests, even as repression became more systematic and sustained. From 2000 to 2008, violence, intimidation, and increasing social polarization formed the backdrop to what were surprisingly competitive elections. In 2005, the MDC split into two factions. The split did not, however, lead to the broader frag-mentation of the opposition vote that would have strengthened ZANU-PF’s position. Over the next two years, many of those who had defected reaffiliated with the Tsvangirai-led main faction of the MDC (MDC-T), which went on to win the bulk of the opposition vote in the 2008 elec-tions. That year, several incumbents affiliated with the splinter faction, then known as MDC-Mutambara (MDC-M), were defeated by new, rel-atively unknown candidates running on the MDC-T ticket. From 2005 to today, competition between the MDC-T and ZANU-PF has dominated politics in Zimbabwe.

The 2008 elections were Zimbabwe’s most competitive since inde-pendence, and they might have served as the beginning of a true dem-ocratic opening. In the first round, Tsvangirai won 48 percent of the presidential vote to Mugabe’s 43 percent. Independent candidate Simba Makoni took another 8 percent, depriving both frontrunners of a first-round majority win and forcing a runoff. The two MDC factions did exceptionally well in the parliamentary vote: MDC-T won 100of 210 seats in the House of Assembly, and the MDC-M won an additional 10. Together, the two MDC factions commanded a majority in parliament for the first time. As Zimbabwe headed toward the runoff, there was optimism that the MDC-T might win control of both parliament and the presidency.

This potential for greater political opening quickly closed. As the runoff neared, state-security forces unleashed a campaign of violence and intimidation in rural areas that was unprecedented in its scope and intensity.2 In order to ensure Mugabe’s reelection, the military launched an operation, codenamed Makavhotera Papi(Who Did You Vote For?), that resulted in the beatings, torture, and deaths of hundreds of MDC activists and supporters. Tens of thousands of Zimbabweans fled their homes. Citing the violence, Tsvangirai dropped out of the race a few days ahead of the June 27 runoff date, leaving Mugabe to win more than 85percent of the votes cast.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC), South Af-rica, and the AU had previously made only muted objections to vio-lence and repression in Zimbabwe, but the violence preceding the runoff

Adrienne LeBas

55 prompted a reconsideration of the region’s “hands-off” policy. The day before the June balloting, SADC called for a postponement and for in-terparty negotiations to take place. Mugabe refused. After the runoff, SADC declared that the contest “did not represent the will of the people of Zimbabwe,” and the AU passed a resolution calling for the formation of a government of national unity. SADC recruited South African presi-dent Thabo Mbeki, previously seen as a strong backer of ZANU-PF, to bring ZANU-PF to the table and negotiate a settlement between the parties. On 15 September 2008, ZANU-PF and the two MDC factions signed the Global Political Agreement, which established the framework for a power-sharing government. The GPA was adopted as a constitu-tional amendment in December 2008. On 11 February 2009, Tsvangirai was sworn in as prime minister, with MDC-M leader Arthur Mutambara as his deputy. Three days later, the multiparty cabinet was sworn in.

The motivations of the parties to the GPA were mixed. For the small-er of the two MDC factions, power sharing was a boon, transforming the MDC-M from a minor party to a shareholder in power and patron-age resources. In addition to the deputy prime minister position, it was awarded three ministerial portfolios. For MDC-T, however, participa-tion in the negotiations and in the inclusive government created internal conflict. Some members of the party’s governing council opposed pow-er sharing, and negotiations with ZANU-PF had always been unpopular with the MDC-T grassroots, which had borne the brunt of state-spon-sored violence in the past. As for ZANU-PF, the party was under intense pressure from its regional allies to negotiate with the MDC. But hard-liners within the party remained hostile to the inclusive government. Zimbabwe’s military chiefs refused to attend Tsvangirai’s swearing-in ceremony, and ZANU-PF’s actions throughout the first six months of inclusive government suggested either an active attempt to sabotage the GPA or a blithe disregard of its terms.

From the beginning, power sharing in Zimbabwe lacked the kind of strong domestic consensus that typically backs governments of national unity. As the inclusive government began to falter, it became appar-ent that SADC would not enforce ZANU-PF compliance with the GPA. Given this and absent a strong internal consensus, the cards were stacked against transformative change under power sharing.

Little Progress on Institutional Reform As Michael Bratton and Eldred Masunungure detailed in these pages in 2008, the authoritarian cast of Zimbabwe’s party-state presented sig-nificant obstacles to the success of a power-sharing arrangement.3 The inclusive government did little to diminish these tendencies. But the failure of Zimbabwe’s power-sharing experiment was not entirely pre-destined, nor was it the result of ZANU-PF obstructionism alone. Flaws

56Journal of Democracy within the agreement and in the opposition’s strategy contributed to the lack of progress on institutional reform.

First, and perhaps most important, the GPA did not clearly specify the division of executive power, nor did it contain robust dispute-res-

olution procedures. The president,

prime minister, and cabinet were all accorded some degree of executive

authority by the GPA, but the agree-ment was grafted onto a constitu-tion that granted extensive powers to the presidency. The language of the agreement was, throughout, as-pirational rather than precise. The parties were enjoined to “have re-gard to the principles and spirit un-

derlying the Inclusive Government”

and to “take decisions by consensus

and take collective responsibility for all cabinet decisions.”

Collective decision making was never put into practice. Within two weeks of Tsvangirai’s swearing-in, Mugabe unilaterally appointed min-isterial permanent secretaries in violation of the GPA’s requirement to consult with the prime minister. Mugabe subsequently refused to swear in a deputy minister selected by the MDC-T, and he appointed ZANU-PF stalwarts as provincial governors without input from the prime min-ister or the cabinet. The MDC-T challenged these illegal presidential appointments in court, but two years passed before the Supreme Court invalidated the governor appointments. Appeals to SADC and Mbeki also did little to curb ZANU-PF violations of the agreement.

The GPA required reforms in a number of areas, but timelines and implementation details for the bulk of these reforms were left vague. Constitutional reform was an exception to this general rule. SADC viewed the ratification of a new constitution by popular referendum as the primary precondition for holding general elections. Thus the clear-est guidelines in the GPA were those relating to constitutional reform.

A constitutional parliamentary select committee was empowered to con-duct popular-outreach exercises, draft the initial document, and shep-herd this draft through parliament before putting it to a referendum. Ac-cording to the detailed timeline laid out in the GPA, all this was to take place within a year and a half of the installation of the inclusive govern-ment. General elections were therefore expected in 2011 or 2012, well before presidential and parliamentary terms were scheduled to expire. Constitutional reform fell behind schedule almost immediately. The first public hearings began in July 2010, six months after they were scheduled to have been completed. The delays continued as the parties disagreed over how outreach data was to be analyzed. By the GPA’s The primary body tasked with oversight of the GPA , the Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC), was systematically starved of resources and assistance from state institutions.

Adrienne LeBas

57 timetable, a new constitution should have been adopted by the end of 2010, allowing plenty of time for passing implementation legislation before holding elections. But by the end of 2011, there was still no draft constitution. It was early 2013 before the parties agreed on a final docu-ment, only months before both presidential and parliamentary terms of office were set to end.

Reforms in other areas fared worse. The GPA mandated the creation of an advisory body on economic policy, the National Economic Coun-cil, but it was never convened. Though a new National Security Council (NSC) met sporadically, Mugabe and his security chiefs continued to make military decisions in closed meetings that excluded Tsvangirai. The primary body tasked with oversight of the GPA, the Joint Moni-toring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC), was systematically starved of resources and assistance from state institutions. Police regu-larly refused to apprehend those whom JOMIC identified as involved in party violence, and JOMIC had no ability to sanction police officers who applied the law selectively. The weakness of the NSC and JOMIC left the door open for rising violence and intimidation in both rural and urban areas.

From 2000 to 2009, ZANU-PF’s grip on power relied on two factors: 1) the extralegal appropriation and redistribution of resources along partisan lines; and 2) the violent harassment and intimidation of those perceived to be associated with the opposition. The formation of the unity government had no appreciable impact on this kind of ZANU-PF “politics as usual.” Within the first weeks of power sharing, the party embarked on a series of farm invasions, targeting a hundred or so of the country’s remaining four-hundred white-owned commercial farms. Likewise, throughout 2009, state-security forces detained several dozen civil society activists and MDC officials. As in the period preceding power sharing, the whereabouts of those detained were not released, and court orders to produce and charge the accused were ignored.

Violence and intimidation disrupted the constitutional-reform pro-cess. The first All Stakeholders Conference, held in advance of the broader public-outreach meetings, had to close early after ZANU-PF activists stormed the hall, singing revolutionary songs and refusing to disperse. Disruption and violence sponsored by ZANU-PF intensified once the public-outreach meetings commenced. Army personnel, war veterans, and youth activists appeared at these sessions, either to dis-suade participants from speaking freely or to shift the balance of views expressed there. In areas where the MDC-T was dominant, such as Ha-rare, outreach meetings were disrupted by armed ZANU-PF militia and subsequently suspended. When these meetings eventually reconvened, police were present and attendance was low.

The GPA tasked the power-sharing government with rebuilding the rule of law and depoliticizing the security forces, but it provided no

58Journal of Democracy means for the opposition to check ZANU-PF abuses. The prime minis-ter’s integration into military decision making was easily circumvented, and police training remained under the control of ZANU-PF hard-liners. Because the police force remained politicized, JOMIC was unable to pursue those responsible for violence or other violations of the GPA. Unsurprisingly, state-sponsored violence and opposition harassment continued during the inclusive government. Dozens of MDC activists and officeholders, as well as civil society activists and lawyers, were arrested on trumped-up charges.4 War veterans continued to beat up and intimidate perceived opposition supporters in rural areas, and a previ-ously marginal ZANU-PF militia known as Chipangano became increas-ingly active in Harare’s low-income areas. For the first time, Harare’s MDC voters became acquainted with the climate of fear and intimida-tion that had previously characterized only the rural areas.

None of this was surprising. Security issues were a “third rail” dur-ing power-sharing negotiations: ZANU-PF would have likely pulled out of negotiations had the agreement truly threatened its control over the military and police. Consequently, the military chiefs responsible for the 2008 violence retained their positions, as did the head of the police. Impunity was built into the GPA. Legislation passed during the power-sharing period further entrenched ZANU-PF hard-liners’ im-munity from prosecution. In October 2012, legislation creating Zim-babwe’s first Human Rights Commission was signed into law with little strenuous objection from the opposition. The law establishes a transitional-justice mechanism, but it also bars the Commission from investigating any crimes committed before the installation of the in-clusive government in February 2009. As Zimbabwe headed toward new elections, the prosecution of those responsible for past electoral violence was taken off the table.

The June 2013 Elections

As delays in the constitutional-reform process mounted, elections had to be pushed back. Presidential and parliamentary terms of office were set to expire in June 2013, but it was only in January 2013 that the parties approved a constitutional draft. This imposed a very tight timeline for holding the constitutional referendum and, pending its re-sult, writing the new constitution’s provisions into law. The MDC-T appealed to SADC to extend the inclusive government’s tenure, arguing that the necessary reforms and safeguards could not be in place in time for a midyear election. But ZANU-PF succeeded in forcing a July 2013 election date.

The July balloting therefore took place without vital reforms. The repressive 2002 Public Order and Security Act (POSA) remained in force, placing serious constraints on freedoms of expression and assem-

Adrienne LeBas

59 bly. State-controlled media remained largely closed to the opposition throughout the campaign period, and repressive media laws were used to restrict independent broadcasting. These laws were in violation of the rights guaranteed in the newly adopted constitution, but the three months between the March referendum and the July election were insuf-ficient for putting in place implementing legislation.

Political freedoms are important for creating a level playing field, but the lack of electoral reform likely had a greater impact on the polls. The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) was neither adequately funded nor free of partisan influence. It also lacked full control over the com-piling and review of the voter roll, which remained partly housed with the Register General, a ZANU-PF political appointee. In early July, just weeks before the election, an independent audit of the register found more than 900,000 duplicate registrations, large numbers of deceased voters, and a systematic bias against registration in urban areas.5 These flaws went uncorrected before the election, and the ZEC failed to pro-vide an electronic copy of the final roll to opposition parties. Thus the voter roll was likely a major source of electoral manipulation.

Power sharing did not level the electoral playing field, but there were also significant shifts in public opinion during the inclusive govern-ment. Credible opinion polls showed a decline in expressed support for the MDC from 2008. In 2009, 57 percent of Zimbabweans had voiced their intentions to vote for the MDC, versus only 10 percent for ZANU-PF. Afrobarometer data gathered in June 2012, however, showed ex-pressed voting intentions for ZANU-PF and the MDC-T to be roughly tied, at about 30 percent of respondents for each.6 The Afrobarometer results also illustrate the toll taken on the electorate by ongoing violence and intimidation. In 2012, nearly 90 percent of respondents said that multiparty competitions “always” or “often” lead to violent conflict, and more than 60 percent said that they personally feared becoming a victim of violence or intimidation.7

These polls indicated a shift in the fortunes of the opposition, but the scale of ZANU-PF’s victory still took many by surprise. Mugabe won 61 percent of the presidential vote to Tsvangirai’s 34 percent, though Tsvangirai received roughly the same number of votes as he had in the first round in 2008. Parliamentary results were even more devastating for the opposition. The MDC-T won only 49 seats in the House of As-sembly versus ZANU-PF’s 160, while the other MDC faction lost its entire elected delegation.8ZANU-PF’s margin in the Senate was only slightly less overwhelming. Overall, the MDC-T won only about 30 per-cent of the popular parliamentary vote, though again it won roughly the same number of votes as in 2008.

Suspiciously inflated increases in the number of ZANU-PF votes took many parliamentary seats from the MDC-T, especially in Zimbabwe’s cities. In several Harare and Bulawayo constituencies, the two MDC

60Journal of Democracy factions lost seats that they had held since 2000 and suffered significant declines in the party’s number of votes. In Matabeleland South, previ-ously an MDC stronghold in the far southwest of the country, ZANU-PF won 11 of 12 parliamentary seats. In Manicaland in the east, the MDC-T went from 20 of 26 seats to only 4. There was undoubtedly manipula-tion at play, probably due more to the flawed voter roll than to the vote count itself. Despite likely rigging, however, voting patterns and public-opinion polling point to a real erosion of MDC-T support, as do the shifting organizational fortunes of the two parties, which were apparent throughout the inclusive government. The MDC-T largely abandoned the tactics that had served it well before 2008, while ZANU-PF built upon its successful strategies of polarization and partisan patronage, ex-tending them to new constituencies in urban areas.

MDC-T Weakened

The MDC-T entered the power-sharing government in a weakened position. The party’s grassroots structures had been badly damaged by the violence preceding the 2008 runoff. Many activists refused to re-turn to rural constituencies, and others had been killed or had fled the country. Further, the idea of a negotiated settlement with ZANU-PF was unpopular with the grassroots. Many MDC-T activists, especially within the youth wing, felt that negotiation and power sharing with ZANU-PF had legitimated what they viewed as stolen elections and betrayed those who had been victims of state-sponsored violence. Thus the MDC-T’s organizational reach and activist commitment were already weak when the party entered the inclusive government.

The actions of the MDC-T leadership during power sharing further damaged the party’s internal organization and its relationship with ex-ternal allies in civil society. Some of the party’s problems emerged from a simple diversion of resources and attention. As the MDC-T struggled to staff the prime minister’s office and the seventeen ministries over which it had control, it transferred nearly all its seasoned organizational staff away from the party’s Harvest House headquarters in Harare. Other party decisions raised questions about its priorities and its long-term strategy. It was clear by 2011 that neither SADC nor the domestic courts would adequately enforce the GPA, but the MDC-T never developed a coherent strategy for responding to violations. The party’s periodic threats to withdraw from the government and its lobbying of Mbeki and SADC did not make the MDC-T look like a strong and vibrant opposi-tion force. The party largely abandoned the strategies that had worked for it in the past. It did not organize public meetings or protests, and par-ty leaders abandoned the consciously polarizing prodemocracy rhetoric that had helped the MDC-T to sustain the commitment of its activists during periods of repression and state-sponsored violence. 9

Adrienne LeBas

61 The party’s upper leadership visibly benefited from participation in the inclusive government, creating further tensions at the grassroots level. After initially protesting government-provided Mercedes-Benz automobiles, MDC-T ministers ended up accepting the cars in a move that many Zimbabweans viewed as symbolic of the party’s loss of prin-ciples.10 Elected officials closer to the grassroots reported a crisis of expectations, as party youths and supporters began to demand the mate-rial rewards that they saw accruing to MDC-T officeholders.11 In Harare Province, grassroots structures were battered by violence from ZANU-PF’s Chipangano and by intense intraparty conflict. Yet branch-level organizers reported difficulty reaching party leadership.12 Though the MDC-T leadership announced a massive registration drive in 2011 with a goal of attracting a million new voters, branch officials received little in the way of funds for organizing registration events or T-shirts and party cards to give to young voters.13

MDC-T leadership admitted that grassroots party-building had been neglected during the first years of power sharing, as the movement of party leaders and MPs into government left a “void” at party headquar-ters.14 Yet it was not until mid-2012 that Tsvangirai reinstituted weekly meetings at Harvest House and MDC-T organizing secretary Nelson Chamisa took time away from ministerial duties to spend two days a week on party business.

The MDC-T also faced trouble with its allies in civil society. Through-out the 2000s, civil society organizations had provided vital support to the opposition, which had ranged from direct material and legal assistance to informal help mobilizing voters. By 2012, these important ties were seriously frayed, if not broken. Civil society activists were disappointed that the opposition had not attempted to repeal or revise repressive public-order and civil society laws. Many in civil society viewed as a betrayal the MDC-T’s failure in July 2012 to block the passage of the flawed Human Rights Bill, and still others were outraged that civil society organizations continued to face harassment and threats of closure under the Private Vol-untary Organisations Act, which the MDC never moved to amend.

Civil society activists felt that the MDC factions should have used their parliamentary majority to try to repeal repressive public-order, me-dia, and civil society laws, even if these efforts would have ended with a presidential veto. MDC-T leaders, on the other hand, felt that doing so would likely provoke confrontation with ZANU-PF and would therefore have been inconsistent with their role in the inclusive government. To many in civil society, the MDC-T’s vision of its role in the inclusive government compromised its status as a pro-democracy movement. Nor did the MDC-T seem concerned about the growing distance between the party and civil society. When asked why the party’s former partners had trouble getting meetings with Tsvangirai and other MDC-T leaders, one official explained: “Civil society has to understand that we are in

62Journal of Democracy government now. We can’t meet only with them; we have to think of all Zimbabweans.”15

In contrast to the MDC-T, ZANU-PF emerged from the power-sharing period strengthened. It found new means of deploying patronage, not just to military officials and party loyalists but also to potentially vulner-able MDC-T voters. In the run-up to the elections, ZANU-PF explic-itly targeted urban constituencies where the MDC-T had previously won by substantial margins. A member of ZANU-PF’s elections directorate suggested that this urban strategy was formulated around the time that the inclusive government was established: “We identified a need that we could realistically deliver on, and we ran with it.”16 The Chipangano militia’s attacks on Harare markets and commuter buses allowed ZANU-PF to take control of market stalls and bus stations—important patronage resources—away from the MDC-T’s municipal council.17 ZANU-PF also attempted to extend land-based patronage, its standard strategy in rural areas, to urban voters. In Harare, it established the Harare North Housing Union, which passed out small parcels of land to settlers. The MDC-T–controlled Harare City Council warned that this action directly un-dermined council authority, mentioning that these new settlements were illegal and could be destroyed.18 Yet urban squatters stayed on the new land, the security of which they no doubt credited to ZANU-PF.

ZANU-PF’s attempts to woo urban voters were transparent. A week before the election, ZANU-PF local-government minister Ignatius Chombo ordered local governments and municipalities to write off all outstanding utility bills, a move that would likely throw cash-strapped (and MDC-governed) municipalities into bankruptcy. The canceling of utility bills and encouragement of illegal land-grabbing were consistent with a nationwide program of sustained ZANU-PF interference with MDC-T–controlled local councils during the inclusive government.19 This strategy had paid significant dividends by the time of the 2013 elections: Council performance had declined, allegations of corruption by MDC-T councilors had increased, and popular opinion in urban areas had begun to turn against the MDC-T.

The differences between the two parties were also apparent during the election campaign. The MDC-T chose to run on a policy-based platform, despite limited evidence that this appealed to voters, while ZANU-PF relied on the nationalistic and polarizing rhetoric that had served it well in past elections. Indeed, its 2013 campaign, like ev-ery campaign since 2000, focused on “patriotic history”—the idea that ZANU-PF had a right to rule due to its role in the liberation war. In early July, at the rally that kicked off the party’s campaign, Mugabe spoke of Zimbabwe’s long tradition of armed resistance to colonial rule, and his comments clearly placed Tsvangirai outside that tradi-tion. As in past campaigns, ZANU-PF focused on one simple point: The MDC did not have the right to rule.

Adrienne LeBas

63 The MDC-T’s failure to rebut this claim directly—or to make the case for the opposition as a democratizing force—did little to rally its base or prevent the defection of some urban voters to ZANU-PF. A focus on ser-vice delivery by MDC-T candidates did not help the party, especially when voters were steadily reminded by ZANU-PF of corruption scandals that had plagued MDC-controlled local councils in 2011 and 2012. Yet the MDC-T chose to run on performance rather than a continued commitment to democratization and political reform. Power sharing, however, made it difficult to assess the parties’ relative contributions to policy success. This made a performance-based campaign strategy questionable at best.

As I have argued elsewhere, the political polarization that character-ized the years between 2000 and 2008 reinforced party cohesion and played a role in keeping popular constituencies tied to their respective parties.20 By abandoning the rhetoric and campaign platform that had built the party, the MDC-T contributed to the erosion of its grassroots support and the growing apathy of its core activists. The party’s declin-ing commitment to internal democracy, especially evident in its reluc-tance to commit to open primaries in all constituencies, created tension between party leaders and the grassroots. Whether the MDC-T manages to recover its strength in the coming years will depend on its ability to reestablish its credentials as a pro-democracy movement and to regain the voters and activists whom it lost in 2013. But recent statements do not suggest that the party leadership has learned lessons from power sharing or from its neglect of party organization.

Tsvangirai may or may not retain the party leadership. Certainly, there are many in Zimbabwe who feel that he is a tired candidate who is now also weakened by scandals in his personal life and by the popu-lar perception that he became wealthy after becoming prime minister. Yet there are few viable successors within the MDC-T. The one bright spot is the continued cohesion of the opposition vote in Zimbabwe: The MDC splinter faction lost ground in the 2013 elections, and the MDC-T retained more than 80 percent of the total opposition vote. In the after-math of defeat, it remains to be seen if the MDC-T can rebuild the social coalition that was its base of support in the 2000s.

Looking Ahead

Power sharing in Zimbabwe fell far short of achieving its aims. Of the dozens of tasks laid out in the GPA, a sizeable share were not un-dertaken at all; the majority were only partly implemented; and only a handful were implemented in accordance with the agreement. This fail-ure to reform meant that the July 2013 elections did not occur on a level playing field. Furthermore, the ruling party’s culture of impunity and violence remained unchallenged. Though the 2013 elections were them-selves largely peaceful, the power-sharing period had been violent. Zim-

64Journal of Democracy babwean voters went to the polls knowing that ZANU-PF violence and retribution were a very real possibility in the event of an election loss.

Power sharing did yield some successes alongside these failures. Zimbabwe has a new constitution, one that contains stronger human-rights guarantees and some decentralization of power. The presidency has lost its powers to veto legislation and dismiss parliament; presidents will also be limited to two terms in office, though Mugabe will remain eligible to run again in 2018. Most important, the inclusive government allowed a period of economic recovery. Dollarization ended hyperinfla-tion; the renewal of donor assistance allowed for the restoration of basic services; businesses and local governments were again able to import necessary materials. Can this progress be sustained, given the ruling party’s hostility to foreign direct investment and its frosty relationship with foreign donors?

There are reasons to be skeptical. For the first time since 2000, ZANU-PF is firmly in control of both the presidency and parliament. The party holds a two-thirds majority in the House of Assembly, enough to unilater-ally amend the constitution. Repressive public-order and press laws re-main on the books. Yet Zimbabwe has not entered a new period of stable electoral authoritarianism. Mugabe is now ninety years old and may not serve out his full five-year term of office. ZANU-PF is no longer as or-ganizationally solid as it once was. In July 2012, the party dissolved its district coordinating committees, and its increased reliance on the military and on its irregular militia cannot make up for its lack of grassroots orga-nization. Succession also remains a fraught issue within ZANU-PF, which is currently divided between two major factions. Vice-President Joyce Mujuru seems to be on the rise, and she is seen as a moderate who favors economic and political reform. But party hard-liners, notably Emmerson Mnangagwa, retain the backing of many in the military. The upcoming party congress in December 2014 may or may not resolve this division. The potential for a succession crisis to split the party is what enabled the elderly president to refuse to face a challenger for the party leadership in 2009 and to remain ZANU-PF’s presidential candidate in 2013. Absent the unifying threat of a strong MDC-T, these tensions and organizational weaknesses are likely to increase.

Zimbabwe’s experience suggests that competitive elections—not inter-national efforts to encourage institutional reform—may be the best route to democratization. They may create increased conflict and instability in the short run, as rising opposition parties chip away at entrenched pow-erholders. But the historical record suggests that competition and dead-lock are what drive elites toward creating checks on power. International intervention can actually undermine this process, as placing pressure on governments to implement power sharing halts this process of competi-tion and bargaining. In Zimbabwe and elsewhere, it has merely postponed the difficult conflicts that result in genuine institutional reform.

Adrienne LeBas

65 The international community should also be more cautious about sanctions and other means of isolating entrenched authoritarian govern-ments. Where there is not a vibrant opposition, these strategies might limit authoritarian abuses and create some pressure for increased politi-cal opening. But where there is a viable electoral opposition, as there was in Zimbabwe in the 2000s, these strategies are likely to backfire. Many Western governments have implemented targeted sanctions such as travel restrictions against Mugabe’s inner circle. By doing so, they have given ZANU-PF hard-liners a valuable electoral resource and a justification for marginalizing reformist voices within the party. On the stump, Mugabe and other ZANU-PF leaders misrepresented targeted sanctions as general sanctions and they pointed to Western govern-ments’ actions and rhetoric as evidence of the West’s ongoing neocolo-nialist designs on southern Africa. This has been an appeal that garners genuine support in Zimbabwe, and one that has helped to silence tech-nocratic and reformist voices within ZANU-PF.

In the coming years, ZANU-PF may become more conflict-ridden and factionalized, a process that will again open up space for party mod-erates. Normalization of relations between ZANU-PF and the West, as well as continued donor funding for education and health care, may speed this process. The EU’s decision to restore direct support to Zim-babwe’s ministries is probably a step in the right direction. There re-mains competent technocratic staff within the ministries, and Mujuru and other ZANU-PF politicians would rather campaign on government performance than on appeals to Zimbabwe’s liberation-war past.

Latin American transitions to democracy should be our guide in set-tings such as Zimbabwe. In Latin America, reducing the stakes of po-litical loss for entrenched incumbents and their supporters—by offering them “golden parachutes” and assurances that they would not be pros-ecuted—helped to ease them out of power. Removing targeted sanc-tions against the engineers of violence in Zimbabwe may feel wrong, but external pressure has failed to change ZANU-PF’s behavior. At this point, when power within ZANU-PF is uncertain, punitive sanctions and cutting off foreign aid would both do more harm than good. Reengage-ment between a ZANU-PF administration and Western donors could open up space for negotiation between moderates within ZANU-PF and their MDC counterparts. Though the 2013 elections did close some po-litical space in Zimbabwe, particularly from the standpoint of formal opposition parties, there remains the possibility of reopening.

NOTES

1. Scholars have pointed out that power sharing often only postpones conflict and at times may even perpetuate it. Denis Tull and Andreas Mehler, “The Hidden Costs of Pow-er Sharing: Reproducing Insurgent Violence in Africa,” African Affairs 104 (July 2005):

66Journal of Democracy

375–98; Ian S. Spears, “Africa: The Limits of Power-Sharing,” Journal of Democracy 13 (July 2002): 123–36. Even boosters premise their support on power-sharing institutions exercising a real constraint on executive power, which is not always the case. Pippa Nor-ris, Driving Democracy: Do Power-Sharing Institutions Work? (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008).

2. Human Rights Watch, “Bullets for Each of You”: State-Sponsored Violence Since Zimbabwe’s March 29 Elections (New York: Human Rights Watch, 2008).

3. Michael Bratton and Eldred Masunungure, “Zimbabwe’s Long Agony,” Journal of Democracy 19 (October 2008): 41–55.

4. See, for instance, the monthly event audits published by the Zimbabwe Peace Proj-ect, available at https://www.doczj.com/doc/5114807009.html,.

5. Research and Advocacy Unit, “Key Statistics from the June 2013 Voters Roll,” Harare, 5 July 2013.

6. Michael Bratton and Eldred Masunungure, “Voting Intentions in Zimbabwe: A Mar-gin of Terror?” Afrobarometer Working Paper No. 103, August 2012.

7. Bratton and Masunungure, “Voting Intentions,” 6.

8. The MDC-T was allocated 22 seats in the House of Assembly on a separate women’s roll, and the MDC-N received two seats through the same mechanism.

9. Adrienne LeBas, From Protest to Parties: Party-Building and Democratization in Africa (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011), ch. 7.

10. A few months later, controversy again erupted over the purchase of a Mercedes for Harare’s mayor by the MDC-T–controlled city council.

11. JoAnne McGregor, “Surveillance and the City: Patronage, Power-Sharing, and the Politics of Urban Control in Zimbabwe,” Journal of Southern African Studies 39 (Decem-ber 2013): 790.

12. Interviews with Harare branch and provincial MDC-T officials, 10, 11, and 13 July 2012.

13. Ibid.

14. Interviews with Nelson Chamisa, 12 July 2012, and with Lucia Matibenga, 12 July 2012.

15. Interview with MDC-T official in the prime minister’s office, 12 July 2012.

16. Quoted in Jason Moyo, “How Zanu-PF Won Harare from the MDC,” Mail and Guardian (Johannesburg), 8 August 2013.

17. “Zanu PF in Bid to Recapture Urban Vote,” Zimbabwe Standard (Harare), 24 Sep-tember 2011.

18. This election strategy constituted a strange reversal, as urban squatters had been vi-olently evicted from illegal plots by ZANU-PF in 2005. Operation Murambatsvina (Drive Out the Trash) left 700,000 or more Zimbabweans without homes or other property. Vic-tims were perceived to be MDC supporters.

19. McGregor, “Surveillance and the City.”

20. LeBas, From Protest to Parties.

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