The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2009/10 indicate that world cotton mill use is expected to rise 3 percent above 2008/09. This season’s modest increase comes on the heels of last year’s 10-percent decline that was attributable to the global economic crisis which impacted most countries’ textile mill activity in 2008/09.
While cotton mill use is forecast to expand in a number of countries in 2009/10, mill use is continuing its trend of concentration among a few countries. The share of global
cotton mill use continues to rise for countries such as China, India, and Pakistan (fig. 1). In 2002/03, these three countries accounted for about 53 percent of the world’s cotton mill use; for 2009/10, these countries are projected to account for nearly 68 percent. China leads the way, spinning over 40 percent of the world’s total since 2006/07. Shares for India and Pakistan continue to grow and are forecast to reach 16.5 and 10.5 percent, respectively, during 2009/10. Meanwhile, U.S. mill use continues its downward trend.
204060801002002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
20082009
Figure 1
World cotton consumption shares
Percent Cotton and Wool Outlook
Leslie Meyer
lmeyer@https://www.doczj.com/doc/5b4523322.html, Stephen MacDonald stephenm@https://www.doczj.com/doc/5b4523322.html,
James Kiawu
jkiawu@https://www.doczj.com/doc/5b4523322.html,
Cotton Mill Use Concentration Continues
Cotton Production Forecast Marginally Higher in December
The USDA December forecast of the 2009 U.S. cotton crop was slightly higher this month at 12.6 million bales, but still about 2 percent below the 2008 crop. The national yield increased to 782 pounds per harvested acre, while the harvested area was unchanged at 7.7 million acres and slightly above 2008’s 25-year low. Upland production is estimated at 12.2 million bales, the smallest crop in 20 years. The extra-long staple (ELS) crop remains estimated at 367,000 bales, the smallest since a similar-sized crop was produced in 1995.
On a regional basis, the upland output is mixed when compared with last season. A larger crop is estimated for 2009 in the Southwest and Southeast regions, while smaller production is expected in the Delta and West regions (fig. 2). In the
Southwest, an upland crop of nearly 5.4 million bales is forecast, the second lowest in the last 5 years as average yields are the lowest during this period. Nevertheless, the Southwest region is expected to account for 44 percent of the U.S. upland crop in 2009.
In the Southeast, a slightly larger crop is projected due to a record yield of 881
pounds per harvested acre. The crop, forecast at 3.4 million bales, is the highest for the region since 2006 when area was significantly higher. For the Delta, a crop of only 2.7 million bales is expected this season. Record low area, coupled with below-average yields due to excessive rainfall at harvest time, reduced the Delta crop to its lowest since 1983. In the West region, upland production is expected to reach only 725,000 bales, the lowest since 1946, as area in 2009 was at its lowest since 1922. Although the region’s crop is half the level of just 3 years ago, a record yield in California helped keep the region’s crop from falling further.
12345678910Southeast
Delta
Southwest
West
Source: USDA, NASS, Crop Production reports.
Figure 2
U.S. regional upland cotton production
Million bales Region
Demand for U.S. Cotton Increased
U.S. cotton demand in 2009/10 was increased nearly 4 percent in December to 14.4 million bales, but still the lowest since 1988. While U.S. mill use was unchanged this month at 3.4 million bales, exports were increased 500,000 bales to 11 million. With world cotton mill use projected higher, foreign import demand is also expected to rise considerably and support the higher export forecast.
However, 2009/10 U.S. exports are forecast at their lowest since 2001/02, as fewer supplies in the United States and record supplies in India are expected to limit the potential for U.S. shipments in 2009/10. U.S. cotton supplies this season are the lowest in over a decade, while competition from India is expected to push their exports to near record levels in 2009/10. As a result, the U.S. share of global trade is projected to decline to 32.5 percent, the lowest since 2000/01.
Stocks Decline and Price Expectations Rise in December
Based on these latest supply and demand estimates, ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected to decline nearly 2 million bales from the beginning level to 4.5 million bales. The stock reduction is the second consecutive season for lower U.S. supplies and is the lowest level since 2003/04. The latest estimate places the stocks-to-use ratio at 31 percent, the lowest in four years.
As a result of increased demand expectations as global consumption improves, U.S. farm prices are being influenced by rising world prices. The December forecast for the upland farm price for 2009/10 was increased to a range of 56-64 cents per pound, up 4 cents on each end of the range from November. This compares with 2008/09’s farm price of 47.8 cents per pound.
World Cotton Production to Continue Decline in 2009/10
Global 2009/10 cotton production is estimated at 102.7 million bales, down 4 percent from a year ago, and continuing the trend of declining production which began in 2007/08. Among factors contributing to the decline are the sluggish recovery from the global financial crisis and the world food price shock of 2008 which encouraged cotton farmers to substitute area to food grains and other competing crops.
Reduction in production is expected in some major cotton producing countries. In China, the 2009/10 production is estimated at 31.5 million bales, down 5.2 million bales (14 percent) from the previous year. The rising cost of production, unavailability of farm workers, and bumper official subsidies to grain producers induced Chinese cotton growers to cut area by 13 percent to 5.2 million hectares from the previous year. In Uzbekistan, 2009/10 production is estimated at 4.4 million bales, down 4 percent from a year ago. Uzbek cotton area in 2009/10 is estimated to have declined 9 percent to 1.3 million hectares from a year earlier. Brazil’s 2009/10 cotton production is estimated at 5.4 million bales, 2 percent below the previous year’s crop, as cotton area continues to decline. Planting of the 2009/10 crop is currently ongoing in Brazil, with December and January being the peak planting months. The United States is expected to produce 12.6 million bales in 2009/10, down 2 percent from the preceding year.
Production declines in those countries are expected to be partly offset by increases in other major producing countries. India’s 2009/10 production is estimated at 23.8 million bales, up 5 percent from a year ago. Production in Pakistan is estimated to increase 9 percent to 9.8 million bales, while in Australia, production is expected to rebound by 20 percent–1.8 million bales–from a year earlier. Australia’s cotton is normally planted between October and November and harvested between March and April. Improvement in water availability in Australia has seen production gaining momentum after the sharp downturn in 2007/08.
Global Cotton Trade Up as China Announces Release of Import Quotas
in 2009/10
The forecasts for China’s 2009/10 imports and consumption are each raised 500,000 bales this month, to 9.0 million and 46.8 million bales, respectively. If realized, this will be a 29-percent import increase and 4-percent consumption growth from the previous year. Thus far this marketing year, the government of China has restricted the available supply of cotton within China in order to support prices to producers. The restriction of available supply has been accomplished by limiting the release of cotton from official reserves that absorbed much of the 2008/09 crop. China has also limited the allocation of import quota above its WTO obligations this year. Cotton prices in China have risen sharply, reaching the equivalent of about $1.00 per pound in recent weeks, compared with the current A-index level (basis Far East delivery) of just under 75 cents per pound.
In addition to the effects of the government’s supply management program, China’s mills have had difficulty procuring the 2009 crop because of problematic harvest weather in some areas, a shortage of transportation from the Xinjiang region, and
producers’ withholding of cotton from the market in an effort to maximize returns as prices rise. Anecdotal reports suggest that cotton demand in China, especially for use in the domestic market, is recovering from the economic downturn; however, faced with very high cotton prices, mills have increased their imports of cotton yarn and substituted polyester where possible.
The government of China has recently announced that, in addition to the WTO quota of 894,000 metric tons, it intends to release an additional 1.0 million tons of import quota in January and another 1.0 million tons in April. This additional quota will ease the supply constraint on China’s mills and should result in narrowing of differences between China and world cotton prices, thereby improving the competitive position of China’s spinning industry.
1.25
1.261.271.281.291.301.311.321.331.341.3511/13
11/17
11/21
11/25
11/29
12/3
12/7
12/11
Figure 3
Ratio of China's CC328 Index to the A-Index
Share
Source: https://www.doczj.com/doc/5b4523322.html,, Cotlook, and St. Louis Federal Reserve database (FRED).
Figure 3 shows that by the end of November 2009, China cotton prices, as indicated by the CC 328 index, were stronger relative to the global A-index. However, expectations of additional imports quotas by China have caused the price ratio to decline.
Import increases by other major cotton consumers are expected in 2009/10.
Bangladesh’s 2009/10 imports are expected to increase 5 percent from a year ago to 4 million bales. Turkey and Pakistan are forecast to import 3.3 million bales and 2.6 million bales, up 14 percent and 18 percent, respectively, from the previous year.
World cotton exports in 2009/10 are forecast at 33.9 million bales, up 12 percent from a year earlier. The world’s leading cotton exporter, the United States, is
expected to see a significant decline in cotton exports. The U.S 2009/10 exports are estimated at 11.0 million bales, down 17 percent from the previous year. Brazil, another major cotton exporter, is expected to export 2 million bales in 2009/10-- a 27-percent decline from the record exports in the preceding year. Being a southern hemisphere country with cotton harvests completed between June-July, Brazil’s 2009/10 exports mainly include the crop harvested in the 2008/09 marketing year.
Big export gains from other countries are expected to more than offset these reductions. India’s 2009/10 cotton exports are estimated at 6.8 million bales, more than twice the exports in the previous year. In Australia and Uzbekistan, exports of the fiber are expected to increase 40 percent and 33 percent to 1.7 million bales and 4 million bales, respectively.
World Cotton Consumption to Grow in 2009/10
As the global economy continues to show signs of recovery, world cotton consumption is forecast to increase 3 percent to 114.5 million bales. Besides China, where consumption is expected to rise 4 percent to 46.8 million bales in 2009/10, mill use is expected to show gains in India and Pakistan. Pakistan’s 2009/10 mill use is forecast at 12 million bales, up 4 percent from a year earlier and equal to the record consumption in 2006/07 and 2007/08 marketing years. India’s cotton consumption is forecast to increase 5 percent to a record 18.8 million bales in 2009/10. Mill use in the United States is forecast to decline 5 percent to 3.4 million bales, while in Brazil, consumption is expected to remain at the 4.2 million bales reached in the previous year. Turkey, currently ranking the world’s fourth largest cotton consumer is expected to increase mill use 2 percent to 5.1 million bales from a year ago.
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Data
Monthly tables from Cotton and Wool Outlook are available in Excel (.xls)
spreadsheets at https://www.doczj.com/doc/5b4523322.html,/briefing/cotton/Data/data.htm . These tables contain the latest data on the production, use, imports, exports, prices, and textile trade of cotton and other fibers.
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2009/10
Item2008/09Oct.Nov.Dec.
Million acres
Upland:
Planted9.2978.9898.9898.989 Harvested7.4007.5867.5867.586
Pounds
Yield/harvested acre803799767774
Million 480-lb. bales
Beginning stocks9.888 6.031 6.031 6.031 Production12.38412.63112.12912.225 Total supply 1/22.27218.66518.16318.259 Mill use 3.558 3.370 3.370 3.370 Exports13.04410.0009.95010.425 Total use16.60213.37013.32013.795 Ending stocks 2/ 6.031 5.256 4.806 4.431
Percent
Stocks-to-use ratio36.339.336.132.1
1,000 acres
Extra-long staple:
Planted174.0149.7149.7149.7 Harvested168.7146.2146.2146.2
Pounds
Yield/harvested acre1,2261,2051,2051,205
1,000 480-lb. bales
Beginning stocks156305305305 Production431367367367 Total supply 1/587674674674 Mill use29303030 Exports232500550575 Total use261530580605 Ending stocks 2/3051449469
Percent
Stocks-to-use ratio116.927.216.211.4 1/ Includes imports. 2/ Includes unaccounted.
Last update: 12/11/09.
Sources: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board; and USDC,
U.S. Census Bureau.
2009/10
Item2008/09Oct.Nov.Dec.
Million 480-lb. bales
Supply:
Beginning stocks--
World62.1662.5062.0161.12 Foreign52.1156.1755.6754.79 Production--
World107.48103.78102.74102.72 Foreign94.6790.7890.2590.13 Imports--
World30.2631.9733.1733.88 Foreign30.2631.9733.1633.88
Use:
Mill use--
World111.13112.64113.52114.51 Foreign107.55109.24110.12111.11 Exports--
World30.2331.9533.1533.88 Foreign16.9521.4522.6522.88 Ending stocks--
World61.1256.1353.7251.81 Foreign54.7950.7348.8247.31
Percent
Stocks-to-use ratio:
World55.049.947.345.2 Foreign50.946.444.342.6
Last update: 12/11/09.
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board.
Table 3--U.S. fiber supply
20092008 Item Aug.Sep.Oct.Oct.
1,000 480-lb. bales
Cotton:
Ginnings1471551953,640 Imports since August 10.10.1NA0.0 Stocks, beginning6,3365,3734,3377,920 At mills175176171155 Public storage5,8044,8334,0357,062 CCC stocks4373181821,458
Million pounds
Manmade:
Production477.8476.0492.6503.4 Noncellulosic477.8476.0492.6503.4 Cellulosic NA NA NA NA Total since January 13,616.64,092.64,585.25604.2
20092008
July Aug.Sep.Sep.
Million pounds
Raw fiber imports:138.9138.5133.1161.2 Noncellulosic122.0121.3117.4143.3 Cellulosic16.917.215.717.8 Total since January 1893.21,031.81,164.91,481.6
1,000 pounds
Wool and mohair:
Raw wool imports, clean833.8847.4447.41,231.3 48s-and-finer312.7453.7169.7407.0 Not-finer-than-46s521.1393.7277.7824.3 Total since January 16,006.36,853.67,301.010,822.9
Wool top imports229.4222.7240.490.7 Total since January 11,327.91,550.61,790.92,162.5 Mohair imports, clean0.00.00.00.0 Total since January 1 5.0 5.0 5.00.0
NA = Not available.
Last update: 12/11/09.
Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service; USDC,
U.S. Census Bureau; and Fiber Organon.
Table 4--U.S. cotton system fiber consumption
2009 2008 Item Aug.Sep.Oct.Oct.
1,000 480-lb. bales
Cotton:
All consumed by mills: 1/287253294396 Total since August 1 1/2875408341,140 SA annual rate 2/3,3982,8873,3204,308 SA daily rate 2/ 13.111.112.816.5 Daily rate13.711.513.417.2
Upland consumed by mills: 1/285251292393 Total since August 1 1/2855358271,131 Daily rate13.611.413.317.1
1,000 spindles/hours
Spindles in place:1,0371,0421,0271,290 Active spindles9819919751,242 Spindle hours (1,000)491598475631
Percent
Cotton's share of fibers84.485.986.486.1
1,000 pounds
Manmade:
Total consumed by mills 1/25,41119,84522,18430,676 Total since August 11/25,41145,25667,44084,544 Daily rate1,2109021,0081,334 Noncellulosic staple1,1998849941,308 Cellulosic staple11181426
1/ Adjusted to calendar month. 2/ SA = Seasonally adjusted.
Last update: 12/11/09.
Source: USDC, U.S. Census Bureau.
Table 5--U.S. fiber exports
20092008 Item July Aug.Sep.Sep.
1,000 480-lb. bales
Cotton:
Upland exports1,1827637721,084 Total since August 113,0447631,5362,204 Sales for next season1,35793-2833 Total since August 12,415936572
Extra-long staple exports66.459.725.07.1 Total since August 1232.059.784.815.6 Sales for next season85.30.00.00.0 Total since August 191.20.00.00.0
Million pounds
Manmade:
Raw fiber exports37.145.546.254.5 Noncellulosic36.544.945.753.7 Cellulosic0.50.60.50.8 Total since January 1264.2309.7355.9544.9
1,000 pounds
Wool and mohair:
Raw wool exports, clean911.8889.61,541.9891.4 Total since January 14,252.25,141.86,683.68,841.5 Wool top exports130.8108.6290.639.4 Total since January 1678.8787.41,078.0185.0 Mohair exports, clean66.6107.165.532.4 Total since January 1589.7696.8762.3515.8
Last update: 12/11/09.
Sources: USDA, Export Sales; USDC, U.S. Census Bureau; and Fiber Organon.
Table 6--U.S. and world fiber prices
20092008 Item Sep.Oct.Nov.Nov.
Cents per pound
Domestic cotton prices:
Adjusted world price47.3049.5554.6036.37 Upland spot 41-3455.7859.1964.9039.83 Pima spot 03-4685.4384.4095.25104.00 Average price received by
upland producers55.0056.7057.9054.80
Far Eastern cotton quotes:
A Index64.2666.7572.1055.20 Memphis/Eastern69.9473.2578.8855.00 Memphis/Orleans/Texas70.5673.8079.0654.50 California/Arizona NQ NQ83.5061.00
Dollars per pound
Wool prices (clean):
U.S. 56s NQ NQ NQ NQ Australian 56s 1/ 2.55 2.66 2.59 1.71 U.S. 60s NQ NQ NQ NQ Australian 60s 1/ 3.25 3.52 3.59 2.14 U.S. 64s NQ 2.70NQ NQ Australian 64s 1/ 3.39 3.79 3.86 2.26
NQ = No quote.
1/ In bond, Charleston, SC.
Last update: 12/11/09.
Sources: USDA, Cotton Price Statistics; Cotlook Ltd., Cotton Outlook;
and trade reports.
1,000 pounds 1/
Yarn, thread, and fabric:203,194193,377184,103231,103 Cotton54,12251,52048,79664,262 Linen14,00612,7609,52720,876 Wool3,0683,0932,8753,891 Silk6685827421,353 Manmade131,331125,422122,163140,720
Apparel:1,056,8041,058,4711,112,8501,211,150 Cotton649,614618,683642,352700,367 Linen9,9879,0409,01314,956 Wool28,20135,28039,72545,713 Silk8,2907,2997,73511,509 Manmade360,712388,168414,025438,604
Home furnishings:230,455242,866247,640246,879 Cotton139,500143,448142,320144,876 Linen8948086661,026 Wool314304321446 Silk439274245401 Manmade89,30798,033104,088100,130
Floor coverings:55,29650,47751,57950,608 Cotton7,9658,4147,7236,726 Linen13,28411,50911,7199,301 Wool8,4017,7568,77610,524 Silk2,1472,1142,0601,650 Manmade23,49920,68521,30022,407
Total imports: 2/1,557,0841,559,0221,611,5671,757,518 Cotton854,774825,373844,713921,027 Linen38,90334,68931,48246,805 Wool40,58047,15752,48461,341 Silk11,54410,27010,78514,915 Manmade611,283641,533672,103713,430
1/ Raw-fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear.
Last update: 12/11/09.
Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service; and USDC,
U.S. Census Bureau.
1,000 pounds 1/
Yarn, thread, and fabric:202,544215,351194,740261,917 Cotton110,306118,17498,416141,905 Linen5,6855,6065,7827,377 Wool3,2953,7793,4673,306 Silk1,2201,2731,2532,046 Manmade82,03886,51985,821107,282
Apparel:24,40325,43924,08327,380 Cotton11,59411,99311,37612,320 Linen416571460587 Wool1,5141,9881,7592,219 Silk1,1361,2401,1741,556 Manmade9,7449,6469,31310,697
Home furnishings:4,4075,3165,1945,590 Cotton1,9071,9621,9772,643 Linen133148125174 Wool8410566119 Silk32452244 Manmade2,2513,0573,0042,610
Floor coverings:22,72528,61026,53735,938 Cotton1,6522,2181,9062,615 Linen8451,2529581,364 Wool1,1281,7892,3363,089 Silk27534473 Manmade19,07323,29821,29228,798
Total exports: 2/254,363275,069250,942331,107 Cotton125,595134,510113,866159,593 Linen7,0847,5887,3339,511 Wool6,0287,6727,6368,743 Silk2,4152,6112,4933,719 Manmade113,240122,689119,613149,542
1/ Raw-fiber equivalent. 2/ Includes headgear.
Last update: 12/11/09.
Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service; and USDC,
U.S. Census Bureau.
Table 9--U.S. cotton textile imports, by country of origin
20092008 Region/country July Aug.Sep.Sep.
1,000 pounds 1/
North America159,668152,786156,488192,283 Canada3,2673,0743,4884,458 Costa Rica1,7901,5931,6652,544 Dominican Republic5,2804,7514,9917,499 El Salvador19,61017,08019,21524,466 Guatemala9,4489,55810,84012,847 Haiti15,21313,88614,51816,778 Honduras31,84732,78431,12643,556 Mexico58,75354,43153,37163,100 Nicaragua14,45115,60317,25216,784 South America11,0029,0709,25710,818 Brazil4,9893,7703,9884,235 Colombia2,0721,9662,3682,757 Peru3,7693,1732,7563,612 Europe11,46417,57215,97717,787 Italy1,8042,0211,1881,584 Portugal1,7462,2311,4892,301 Turkey3,7378,9159,3348,662 Asia645,082623,016642,595673,719 Bahrain2,0561,6852,0132,805 Bangladesh54,42248,06553,29555,078 Cambodia23,19924,57025,01530,215 China283,765277,972299,057272,954 Hong Kong1,5821,9011,67415,552 India61,20861,87862,64760,463 Indonesia31,78532,05830,07831,827 Israel1,9902,1331,6342,088 Jordan6,7226,7735,5918,465 Macao8177038557,529 Malaysia3,4804,1783,2996,020 Pakistan84,61578,50875,50179,665 Philippines7,1025,7885,7768,253 South Korea7,5937,1417,1859,419 Sri Lanka8,8147,9518,15310,717 Taiwan3,5043,8833,2256,081 Thailand12,43311,82310,63416,843 Vietnam46,29442,79544,51444,668 Oceania7113311889 Africa27,48622,79520,27626,329 Egypt12,1819,36710,42610,570 Kenya2,5062,8842,7743,378 Lesotho7,4134,6262,8696,175 Madagascar1,7433,1802,1972,950 World 2/854,774825,373844,713921,027 1/ Raw-fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding.
Last update: 12/11/09.
Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service; and USDC,
U.S. Census Bureau.
Table 10--U.S. cotton textile exports, by destination country
20092008 Region/country July Aug.Sep.Sep.
1,000 pounds 1/
North America114,149122,369101,785147,048 Bahamas9912085109 Canada9,48011,1169,40110,722 Costa Rica350288584697 Dominican Republic18,71618,38611,76418,332 El Salvador8,8498,7989,41814,328 Guatemala2,5074,1485,1994,632 Haiti468449250455 Honduras42,27548,25433,15263,226 Jamaica5011658118 Mexico29,67028,34429,38631,952 Nicaragua1,1811,7971,7932,029 Panama176140190112 South America2,1362,4502,8022,857 Brazil303512363732 Chile277333383191 Colombia478776706728 Peru12013237072 Venezuela554439585783 Europe3,4203,7853,6373,337 Belgium411245269530 France112202307118 Germany529550468462 Italy148244234179 Netherlands383388497314 Turkey118409113110 United Kingdom1,2011,0211,0551,055 Asia4,8824,8544,5065,403 China1,1831,1341,435956 Hong Kong480369256583 India369195190236 Israel277316164136 Japan6929138871,097 Philippines29132198 Saudi Arabia10618613873 Singapore270278190203 South Korea595573466818 Sri Lanka439289104 Taiwan74158110107 Thailand1147572125 United Arab Emirates198203216306 Oceania511746771501 Australia415590650392 Africa495305364447 Egypt274632227 World 2/125,595134,510113,866159,593 1/ Raw-fiber equivalent. 2/ Totals may not add due to rounding.
Last update: 12/11/09.
Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service; and USDC,
U.S. Census Bureau.
Table 11--Acreage, yield, and production estimates, 2009
State/region Planted Harvested Yield Production
Pounds/
-- 1,000 acres --harvested acre 1,000 bales Upland:
Alabama255250710370 Florida8281664112 Georgia1,0009909071,870 North Carolina375370986760 South Carolina115114842200 Virginia6564900120 Southeast1,8921,8698813,432
Arkansas520500826860 Louisiana230225704330 Mississippi295285758450 Missouri275263949520 Tennessee300280891520 Delta1,6201,5538282,680
Kansas363272048 Oklahoma200195837340 Texas5,0003,7006495,000 Southwest5,2363,9276595,388
Arizona1401391,450420 California71701,714250 New Mexico302894355 West2412371,468725
Total Upland8,9897,58677412,225
Pima:
Arizona119973 California1301271,247330 New Mexico117892 Texas171793132
Total Pima1501461,205367
Total all9,1397,73278212,592 Last update: 12/11/09.
Source: Based on USDA, NASS, December 2009 Crop Production report.