附录
Rethinking Fast Growth in China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves
I．Introduction
Since2000, China’s foreign exchange reserves have been growing fast. By the end of2001, China’s foreign exchange reserves had exceeded US$200bn and by the end of 2002 hadreached US$286.4bn. By the end of2003, it had reached US$403.3bn and in 2004 it reachedUS$609.9bn. In l 999, China’s foreign exchange reserves accounted for l 5.6 percent of itsGDP. The ratio has been growing continually and Was 36.88 percent of GDP by 2004, making China the second largest foreign exchange reserve holder in the worldafter Japan. Statistics released by Japan’s Ministry ofFinance on 7 July 2005 show that by the end of June the same year, Japan’foreign exchange reserve were valued at US$43.5bn.
China has reserves ofUS$771 bn by the end ofJune 2005. However, China has a larger ratioofforeign exchange reserve to GDP than Japan. In 2005, China’s ratio offoreign exchangereserve to GDP was 37 percent, whereas that of Japan was 18 percent. By the end ofDecember 2005, China’s foreign exchange reserves had expanded further to reach US$818.87bn.
II．Cause of China’s Sustained High Growth
of Foreign Exchange Reserves
The main re ason for China’s sustained fast-expanding foreign exchange reserves in recentyears, is continual surpluses in the current and capital accounts of China’s balance ofpayments. In terms of sources, foreign exchange reserves can be divided into creditor’s rights-based reserve and debt-based reserve. The former is reserve from current accounts, whereas the latter is from the capital accounts．Foreign exchange reserves of developingcountries are mainly composed ofdebt-based reserve. Since the latter halfofthe 1990s, thestructure of China’s foreign exchange reserve sources has undergone significant change. From 1994 to 1996, China’s foreign exchange reserves were mainly composed of debt-based reserve. The increased foreign exchange
reserves mainly came from capital accountsurplus, which mainly resulted from the increase in foreign direct investment(FDI)．Since 1997, the creditor’s rights segment ofChina’s foreign exchange reserves has gradually becomemore increased. However, during 2003-2004 the debt-based reserve rebounded dramatically. In that period,the capital account surplus soared from US$52.726bn in 2003 to US$110.66bnin2004, andChina’s foreignexchangereservesincreasedbyUS$206.681bnin2004. Thiswasclosely related to the continually growing expectations toward renminbi revaluation and theinflux ofinternational“hot money”in pursuit of speculative gain s.
It is noteworthy that since 2004, the expectation for renminbi appreciation has beengrowing continually and a large amount of speculative capitalhas swarmed in. The Central Bank has adopted a compulsory foreign exchange settlement policy to maintainthe relative stability of the renminbi exchange rate, which is an important factor behindexpanding foreign exchange reserves. Seen from the current situation and the developmenttrend in the near future, the factors that have caused expansion ofChina’s foreign exchangereserves will continue.
Admittedly, the sustained surpluses in the current and capital accounts of China’s balance of payments in recent yearsare the main reason for its continually fast-expanding foreign exchange reserves. However, two fundamental factors are worthconsidering：(i)flaws in the formation of the renminbi exchange rate regime are theinstitutional root cause of sustained high growth offoreign exchange reservesand(ii)thevarious theoretical misconceptions about China’s foreign exchange reserves have swayedpolicies and contributed to the sustained fast growth in China’s foreign exchange reserves.
In terms ofinstitutional causes, the eruption ofthe 1997 Asian financial crisis held back the process of the China’s reform of the renminbi exchange rate regime.The renminbi came under great pressure to depreciate. To maintain the stability of the renminbi exchange rate, there was a forceddeparturefromtheorigi nal“managedfloating exchange rate regime.”Inthewakeofthe crisis, the Chinese economy was afected by the global economic recession and worseningdeflation, whichhas graduallymadetherenminbiexchangerateregime shifttoafactor“US-dollar-pegged fixed exchange rate regime.”Apart from the external impacts, the errors inChina’s macroeconomic policies an d strategies, such as those concerning foreign trade, foreign capital, foreign exchange reserve and industrial policies, have led to a distortion in theformation ofthe renminbi exchange rate regime．An obvious feature of
that distortion is thecompulsory settlement and sales of foreign exchange in the banks, and the closed inter-bankforeign exchange market. In such an institutional framework, the implementation of thecompulsory foreign exchange settlement and sales, the convertibility ofthe current accountsandtheCentralBank’s controlontheforeign exchangepositionofthebanksdesignatedforforeign exchange operations have meant that banks, enterprises andresidents unable to holdforeign exchangeattheirownwil1. The CentralBank,meanwhile, holdsaconsiderableamountofforeign exchangeintheform ofstateforeign exchangereserves. Suchan arrangementwilldefinitely lead to the sustained an d accelerated expansion of foreign exchange reserves.
In terms of policy orientation, there have long been many theoretical misconceptions regardingthebasicfunctionsandrolesofforeign exchange reserves：forexample, that foreignexchange reserves equal economic strength, exaggeration ofthe function offoreign exchangereserves, and accumulating reserves without definite andjustifiable reasons. All these factorshave strongly pushed the sustained high growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves.
III．Analysis of the Theoretical Misconceptions on
China's Foreign Exchange Reserves
1．Regarding the Opinion that Foreign Exchange
Reserves Equal Economic Strength
Since the 1990s, there has been a popular opinion that the more foreign exchange reservesChina has, the better it is, and that the growth offoreign exchange reserves reflects China’s economic strength and improvement of its international status. The rapid growth in foreignexchange reserves is seen as a sign of sound economic operation. In reality, this is a biasedviewpoint that fails to apprec iate China’s actual economic condition．
Foreign exchange reserve is a balancing item for international payments, which isclosely related to various aspects of the economy and to changes in the worldeconomy. Inconsidering the rational scale of foreign exchange reserves, one must take into accountvarious factors in the economy，including the scale and development pace of the nationaleconomy, the level ofeconomic opening up and foreign dependency, the level and structureofforeign trade development, the level ofutilization offoreign investment and the capacityoffinancinginternationally, theefficiencyofeconomic adjustmentand regulation, andtheforeign exchange management system. From an international perspective，developedcountries are more
powerful in terms of overall national strength, and have bettermacroeconomic regulation frameworks. Their home currencies are convertible and can beused for international payments. Therefore, theirdemand for foreign exchange reserves isrelatively weak. In contrast, developing countries are fettered by a low development level, with an imperfect macroeconomic regulation system. They are short of foreign exchangeresources and their home currencies are often not suitable for international use. Therefore, they are highly dependent on the international market and have a stronger demand forforeign exchange reserves．
Indeterminingarational scaleofforeign exchangereserves, Chinaneedsto beawareoftheinternationallyacceptedempirical standards, andtoconsideritsownactualeconomic conditions, thatis, theimperfectmacroeconomicregulation system, unstable macroeconomy, imperfectmarketeconomic system,relativelyfragilefinancialsystemandforeign exchangeregime, andinconvertibilityoftherenminbi. In addition, Chinaisundergoingeconomictransitionandfacesmany uncertainties. Therefore, it needs to hold reserves to cope with possible contingencies. However, thisdoesnotmean thatthemore reserves are，thebetteroftheeconomywillbe . There areseveral reasons，as follows：
(1)EverythingNeeds to be “within Limits,”and so does the Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserves
(2)The Scale ofForeign Exchange Reserves does not Necessarily Represent the OverallEconomic Strength ofa Country
(3)InGeneral,GrowthofForeignExchangeReservesdoesnotNecessarilyhaveaPositiveCo rrelation with Economic Operation
2.Exaggeration of the Function of Foreign Exchange Reserves
With the rapid development offinancial globalization, the basic functions offoreign exchangereserve have also undergone changes. The demand for foreign exchange reserves is notonly for transactions and risk prevention, but there isalso“development-oriented demand'’. Especially in the case of emerging-marketcountries, increasing attention is often paid toforeign exchange reserves as a way to boost public morale, strengthen internationalcredibility, to improve financing capacity in the international market and to reduce reform risks. Such demand for foreign exchange reserves is called development-oriented demand. There has been development in the understanding of the function of the foreign
exchangereserve. In the past, the use of foreign exchange reserves was confined to coping withinternational payment deficits and maintaining exchan ge rate stability ofhome currencies. Now it is used as a means to safeguard the international reputation of a country and toenhance its competitive edge in the international market. However, a one-sidedunderstanding of the role change has led to the specious view that change in the quantityofforeign exchange reserves is an important criterion or confidence index for measuring thesoundness of the macroeconomy. In this view, the main function of the foreign exchangereserve does not lie in its utility, but in its role as an index. For that reason, it has graduallybecome a mainstream opinion that the more foreign exchange reserves a country has, theberet it will be. The function of foreign exchange reserve has been deified and its role ofadjustment of international payments has been exaggerated. In reality, the role of foreignexchange reserve in adjusting international payments and preventing financial crisis islimited and has two main functions, which are outlined in the following two sections．
(1)Foreign Exchange Reserves can Only Adjust Temporary Imbalance of InternationalPayments
It is only a temporary measure to use foreign exchange reserves to balance internationalpayments. It is implemented only for saving time in domestic economic restructuring. Whena country encounters a large amount of deficit in international payments over a relativelylong period of time, although foreign exchange reserves can be used to intervene in theprocess, its role will be limited no matter how large the scale of the reserve is. If foreignexchange reserves were to diminish rapidly, public confidence might collapse, which mighthave a disastrous impact on domestic economic development.
(2)Large-scale Foreign Exchange Reserves are not the Decisive Factor in thePreventionofFinancial Crisis
The Asian financial crisis that broke out in the 1990s is a typical case for the study ofmodern financiaI crisis. Some Asian economies became severely affected as a result ofinterest rate changes in international markets, increases in foreign debt, abnormal changesin international capital flow and the speculative attack by international hot money. Althoughthose countries were all holding high level of foreign exchange reserves before the crisisburst out, they still could not manage to survive the attack of large quantities of speculativecapita1. The main reason is that the causes of the crisis were complicated. They includewrong government policies, a
worsening economic foundation, abrupt changes in investorconfidence and in their market anticipationfragile financial systems and errors in financialmanagement. The root cause is that against the backdrop of a re-shaped internationaleconomic landscape, and accelerated financial globalization and liberalization, structuralproblems, coupled with policy blunders, had intensified in those crisis-afflicted transitionalcountries. As a result, even their high-level foreign exchange reserves could not save them.
China successfully survived the Asian financial crisis. A rather popular view is that itwas because of China’s high-level foreign exchange reserves. Such a view deservesdiscussion. Admittedly,China was able to make use of high-level foreign exchange reservesfor the demand oftransactions, crisis prevention and development. In particular, it did playan active role in bolstering confidence in the economic development. However,those werenotthekeyfactors. Infact, duringtheAsian financial crisis, Chinaonlyhadforeignexchangereserves of US$150bn. Compared with the huge amounts of international speculative hotmoney, this was but a drop in the bucket. Its role in warding ofthe financial crisis was verylimited. A very important reason for China’s success in surviving the crisis was that Chinahad not opened up its capital market, and had imposed strict control on its capital account. Thanks to this“firewall,”the large-scale flow of speculative capital was prevented.
With C hina’s relatively stringent foreign exchange management,it is worth discussingthe necessity to maintain a large pool of foreign exchange reserves as an anti-withdrawalemergency fund. For example, consider whether high-level foreign exchange reserve canreally help to improve the confidence of foreign investors. By the end of 2004, Japan hadforeign exchange reserves ofUS$844.5bn, ranking first in the world. Chinese Taiwan，inthe same period, owned US$240bn foreign exchange reserves and had a high foreignexchange reserve--GDP ratio. But so far, no statistics indicate that either Japan or ChineseTaiwan have much attraction for foreign investors. In contrast, foreign exchange reservesoftheUSAcan only sustainimportsforlessthan amonth, whichare farbelowthetheoreticalwarning limit. Despite this, no country or individual has any doubt about theUS capacity to make international payments. As proof,the USA has long maintained itsedge in attracting foreign investors. When the 1997 Asian financial crisis erupted, theaffected Asian countries were all holding a large pool of foreign exchange reserves, butnone of them escaped the crisis．
3. Making Reserve “For the Reserve’s Sake”
Regarding China’s foreign exchange reserves, there is a theoretical
misconception thatleads to advocating reserve for reserve’s sake. This view is derived from the idea thatforeign exchange reserves equal economic strength, and the view that deifies the functionof foreign exchange reserve. This view is manifested in two ways．
(1)Passive Holding ofForeign Exchange Reserves
Under the influence of the view that foreign exchange reserves equal economic strength, and the more reserves the better, some take a one-sided view thatprecautionary holding offoreign exchange reserves will avert peril, and reserves should not be used until the criticalmoment. As a result, foreign exchange reserves have in reality not been effectively utilizedalthough there has been a large pool of them. Reflecting such a view, in the management offoreign exchange reserves, such factors as the economic benefit, social benefit, risk control, efficiency of operation, structure of currencies of reserves and their asset structure havebeen ignored. This has made the management of reserves rigid and inflexible.
(2)Taking the Increasing ofForeign Exchange Reserves as a Policy Objective
Foreign exchange reserves are the important part of a country’s monetary policy. Changein reserves is an item for balancing international payments, and it is usually a result ofintervention in the foreign exchange market by the central banks of various countries. Change in the reserve aims to stabilize the exchange rate. Therefore, change in the foreignexchange reserve in itself is not a policy objective, but, rather, keeps the exchange ratestable to protect the export competitiveness of domesticenterprises. This is closely relatedto measures to boost economic growth and to ensure full employment, both of which arekey internal factors in maintaining the balance ofdevelopment. Obviously, change in foreignexchange reserves is not the only target of monetary policy. In China there has been atendency to take increasing foreign exchange reserves as the policy objective.
No doubt, the various theoretical misconceptions regarding the scale ofChina’s foreignexchange reserves are important factors in the country’s sustained rapid expansion ofreserves, amaterthatbrews risk.
IV．Adjustment of Foreign Exchange Reserve Policies China’s foreign exchange reserves have maintained a high growth rate. Although large-scale foreign exchange reserves have strengthened financial security, the security of theforeign exchangereserveassetitselfisworrisome. Chinahas paidahighpriceand shoulderedhigh risks for its large pool of foreign exchange reserves.
There are further high risks, suchas loss of interest and the shrinking of the real value of its foreign exchange reserves. Thelarge scale of foreign exchange reserves have had a series of adverse impacts on China’s economic development, and has created risk. The current condition of China’s foreignexchange reserves has become a critical hidden danger threatening financial safety. Therefore, there is an urgent need to adjust China’S foreign exchange reserve policies.
1. Control the Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserves
First, China’s foreign exchange reserves should be maintained at a reasonable leve1. Froman international perspective, it is generally accepted that the minimum foreign exchangereserves shouldbeableto sustainimportsforatleast 3months, aperiodthatisconsideredthe warning threshold. Based on intemational experience, the warning limit for the ratio offoreign exchange reserve to foreign debt balance is 30 percent. From China’s point ofview, its imports over 3 months in 2004 would have needed approximately US$140bn offoreignexchange, whereas another US$70bn would have been needed to satisfy the warning limitfor the ratio offoreign exchange reserve to foreign debt balance. Ifthe needs for satisfyingforeign investors’transfer of their profits to their home countries, financial reform andother contingencies are taken into consideration, the scale of China’S foreign exchangereserves should be largely maintained at a rational level ofUS$300-400bn.
Second, China needs to choose the appropriate time to adjust relevant macroeconomic
policies and strategies that have led to the sustained surplus in its balance of internationalpayments, including foreign trade, foreign investment and industrial policies. Regardingtrade policy, for instance, China has long implemented the traditional trade strategy that isbased on the basic principle of creating foreign exchange through exports. This has led tosustained trade surplus and rapid expansion of foreign exchange reserves, which not onlyexacerbates the pressure for renminbi appreciation, but also carries great risk. Moreover, improving the determination of the basis of the renminbi exchange rate, and rectifying itsdistorted formation mechanism, will improve the foreign exchange market, increase theflexibility ofexchange rate and improve the exchange rate form ation mechanism．This Can holdbacktherapidgrowthinforeign exchangereserves. Nodoubt, adjustingthe relevant macroeconomic policies, including foreign trade policy and strategies, is whatis needed for ens uring China’s security of foreign exchange reserves．
2. Strengthen Management of Foreign Exchange Reserves
In the current situation, apart from controlling the scale of foreign exchange reserves, it ismore importan t for China to implement sound man agement and use of reserves. First, itshould be well man aged so as to produce the maximum economic and social benefits. Inmanaging foreign exchange reserves, besides reducing its adverse impacts on themacroeconomy, the most urgent task is to bring out the positive role of the large pool ofrenminbi deposits and foreign exchange reserves in boosting economic growth, and toestablish a new mechanism to transform reserves and deposit fund into investment andcapita1. Second, risk management of foreign exchange reserves should be strengthenedand a risk management framework should be established and improved. Third, the efficiencyof foreign exchange reserve operation should be improved. Finally, the currency and assetstructures of foreign exchange reserves should be considered in a rational way.
对中国外汇储备快速增长的反思
I．序言
从2000年起，中国的外汇储备一直快速增长。2001年底，中国的外汇储备已超过2000亿美元；2002年底，达到2864亿美元；2003年底，达到4030亿美元；及至2004年底，这一数字已达到6099亿美元。在1999年，中国的外汇储备占国内生产总值的15.6%。这一比例不断增长，到2004年已经达到36.88%，至此中国已经成为仅次于日本的世界第二大外汇储备国。根据日本财政部在2005年7月公布的数据显示，到2005年6月底，日本的外汇储备总额为8435亿美元。
2005年6月底，中国的外汇储备达到7710亿美元。但中国的外汇储备占国内生产总值的比例要大于日本。2005年，中国的外汇储备占国内生产总值的37%，而日本是18%。2005年12月底，中国的外汇储备已经增长到8188.7亿美元。
II．中国外汇储备持续快速增长的原因
近年来中国外汇储备持续快速增长的主要原因是中国国际收支平衡中经常项目和资本项目的长期盈余。从来源来看，外汇储备可以分为以债权人权利为基础的储备和以债务为基础的储备。前者来自于经常项目，后者来自于资本项目。而发展中国家的外汇储备主要是由以债务为基础的储备构成。自20世纪90年代后半期以来，中国外汇储备来源的结构发生了很大变化。从1994年到1996年，中国外汇储备主要由以债务为基础的储备构成。所增长的外汇储备主要来自于外国直接投资引起增加的资本项目。从1997年开始，中国外汇储备的债权人权利部分开始不断增长。不过，在2003-2004年间，以债务为基础的储备大幅反弹。在此期间，资本项目的盈余从2003年的527.26亿美元激增到2004年的1106.6亿美元，2004年中国的外汇储备增加了2066.81亿美元。这与不断增长的对人民币升值的预期和追求投机收益的国际“热钱”的涌入密切相关。
值得注意的是，自2004以来，对人民币升值的预期不断增长，同时大量投机资本蜂拥而至。中央银行采取了强制性的外汇储备结算政策来维持人民币汇率的相对稳定，而这正是外汇储备增长的一个重要因素。从目前的状况和近期的发展趋势看来，造成中国外汇储备增长的因素还将持续存在。
无可否认，近年来中国的国际收支平衡中，经常项目和资本项目的持续盈余是中国外汇储备不断快速增长的主要原因。不过，还有两个基本因素值得考虑：（i）人民币汇率制度形成中的缺陷是外汇储备持续高速增长的体制根源；（ii）关于中国外汇储备的各种理论误解使得政策摇摆不定，也促使了中国外汇储备的持续高速增长。
在体制根源方面，1997年爆发的亚洲金融危机抑制了中国人民币汇率制度的改革进程。当时人民币承受了巨大的贬值压力。为了维持人民币汇率的稳定性，中国不得不远离原本的“可控制的浮动汇率制度”。危机结束后，中国经济受到了全球经济衰退和不断恶化的通货紧缩的影响，这使得人民币汇率制度实际上转变成为“与美元挂钩的汇率制度”。除了外部影响，中国的宏观经济政策和战略，例如有关外贸、外国资本、外汇储备、和产业政策上的错误，也导致了人民币汇率制度形成的畸变。这种畸变的一个明显特征就是银行的强制性外汇结售和封闭的银行间外汇市场。在此种体制框架之下，强制性外汇结售的执行，经常项目的可兑换性，以及中央银行对指定办理外汇业务银行的控制，都意味着银行、企业和居民不能依照自己的意愿持有外汇。与此同时，中央银行以国家外汇储备的形式持有相当数量的外汇。这样的安排必然会导致外汇储备的持续加速增长。
在政策倾向方面，长期存在着许多对于外汇储备的基本功能和作用的理论误解：例如，将外汇储备等同于经济实力，夸大外汇储备的功能，在没有明确合理理由的情况下积累外汇储备。所有这些因素都有力的推动了中国外汇储备的持续高速增长。
III．关于中国外汇储备理论误解的分析
1.关于外汇储备等同于经济实力的观点
自20世纪90年代起，有一种很普遍的观点：中国的外汇储备越多越好，外汇储备的增长反映着中国的经济实力和国际地位的提高。外汇储备的高速增长被看做是经济运行良好的标志。事实上，这是一种不能正确评价中国实际经济状况的片面观点。
外汇储备是国际收支的一项平衡项目，它与本国经济的各个方面和世界经济的种种变化密切相关。在考虑外汇储备的合理规模时，必须要考虑到本国经济的各种因素，包括国民经济的规模和发展速度，经济开放和对外依赖的程度，外贸发展的水平和结构，国外投资的利用程度和国际融资的能力，经济调整和规范的效率，以及外汇管理系统。从国际角度来看，发达国家拥有更强的综合实力和更好的宏观经济调控框架。他们本国的货币是可兑换的，并且可用于国际支付。因此他们对于外汇储备的需求就相对较弱。与此相反，发展中国家受低发展水平和不完善的宏观经济调控系统的束缚，他们的外汇资源短缺，并且本国货币常常不能用于国际支付。因此它们在国际市场中的依赖性很高，对外汇储备的需求也很大。
在决定外汇储备的合理规模时，中国需要知道国际公认的经验标准，需要考虑本国的实际经济状况:不完善的宏观经济调控系统，不稳定的宏观经济，不完
善的市场经济体系，相对脆弱的金融体系和外汇制度，以及人民币的不可兑换性。另外，中国正在经历经济转型，面临着许多的不确定性，因此需要持有外汇储备以备不时之需。
但这并不意味着拥有越多的外汇储备，经济就会越好，原因有以下几点：
（1）任何事情都需要有“度”，外汇储备也不例外。
（2）外汇储备的规模并不一定代表着一个国家的整体经济实力。
（3）一般说来，外汇储备并不一定与经济运行状况成正比。
2. 对外汇储备功能的夸大之词
随着金融全球化的快速发展，外汇储备的基本功能也有了变化。对外汇储备的需求不再仅仅是为了交易和风险防范，还出现了“以发展为导向的需求”。尤其是在新兴市场国家，外汇储备得到了越来越多的关注，它已经变成了提高公众士气，加强国际信誉，改善在国际市场的融资能力，降低变革风险的一种方式。这种对外汇储备的需求就被称之为“以发展为导向的需求”，人们对于外汇储备功能的理解有了一定的发展。过去，外汇储备只被用来弥补国际收支赤字和维持本国货币汇率稳定。现在它被用作维护一个国家的国际声誉和增强其在国际市场竞争优势的手段。然而，对于外汇储备作用变化的片面理解形成了一个似是而非的观点：外汇储备数量上的变化是宏观经济是否运行良好的一个重要的评判标准或信心指数。在这个观点中，外汇储备的主要功能并不在于它的效用，而在于它作为一项指数的作用。因此，渐渐形成了一种主流认识，认为一个国家拥有越多的外汇储备越好。进而外汇储备的功能被神化，它调节国际收支的作用被夸大。事实上，外汇储备调节国际收支和防止金融危机发生的作用是有限的，并且仅限于以下两个方面：
（1）外汇储备只能调节暂时的国际收支失衡。
用外汇储备来平衡国际收支只是一个临时措施，它只能为国内经济重组节省时间。如果一个国家在相对较长的时期内面临高额的国际收支逆差，尽管外汇储备可以用来干预这一过程，但不管这个国家的外汇储备规模有多大，它的作用都是有限的。如果外汇储备减少的太快，公众的信心也许会崩溃，这可能会对国内经济发展产生灾难性的影响。
（2）大规模的外汇储备并不是防止金融危机发生的决定性因素。
20世纪90年代爆发的亚洲金融危机是研究现代金融危机的一个典型案例。由于国际市场的利率变化，外债的增加，国际资金流动的异常变化以及国际热钱的投机性冲击，一些亚洲国家的经济受到了很大的影响。尽管那些国家在危机爆发前全都持有大量的外汇储备，他们仍然不能在大量投机资本的冲击下幸存。主要原因是这场危机的起因非常复杂，包括错误的政府政策，不断恶化的经济基础，
投资者信心和市场预期的突然变化，脆弱的金融体系以及金融监管中的错误。而根本原因是当时的大背景，即重塑的国际经济格局，加速的金融全球化和自由化以及结构性问题，政策失误，这些统统加剧了危机对这些经济转型国家的影响。所以，即使他们拥有大量的外汇储备也无济于事。
中国从亚洲金融危机中幸存了下来。一种比较普遍的观点认为这是中国拥有大量外汇储备的缘故。这种观点值得探讨。诚然，中国可以利用大笔的外汇储备以满足交易，防范危机和发展的需求。特别是外汇储备的确在增强信心，发展经济方面发挥了积极的作用。但这些并不是中国幸存于亚洲金融危机的关键因素。事实上，在亚洲金融危机爆发期间，中国只有1500亿美元的外汇储备。同巨额的国际投机热钱相比，这仅仅是沧海一粟，它防范金融危机的作用十分有限。中国幸存于亚洲金融危机的一个重要原因是中国尚未开放其资本市场，并严格控制其资本项目。幸亏有这样一道“防火墙”，大规模的投机资本被挡在了门外。
鉴于中国相对严格的外汇管理制度，保持大量的外汇储备作为防提款紧急基金的必要性值得探讨。例如，考虑一下大量的外汇储备是否真的有助于增强外国投资者的信心。到2004年底，日本的外汇储备为8445亿美元，位列世界第一。中国台湾同期的外汇储备为2400亿美元，而且其外汇储备占国内生产总值的比率很高。但到目前为止，没有数据显示日本或台湾对外国投资者有多少吸引力。相反，美国的外汇储备只够维持不到一个月的进口，这远远低于理论上的警戒线。尽管如此，没有一个国家或个人会怀疑美国的国际支付能力。作为证明，美国长期保持着他吸引外资的优势。1997年亚洲金融危机爆发时，受到影响的亚洲国家全都持有大量的外汇储备，但没有一个躲过了这场危机。
3．为了储备而储备
关于中国的外汇储备，有一种理论上的误解：提倡为了储备而储备。这种误解起源于外汇储备等同于经济实力和将外汇储备功能神化的观点，表现在以下两个方面：
（1）被动持有外汇储备
在外汇储备等同于经济实力，外汇储备越多越好的观点影响之下，有些人片面的认为预先持有外汇储备能防止危险，并且不到紧急时刻不得使用。结果尽管中国拥有大量的外汇储备，但实际上它们并没有得到有效的利用。基于这种观点，外汇储备管理中的经济效益，社会效益，风险控制，运行效率，货币结构及其资产结构等因素统统都被忽略了。这使外汇储备的管理变得僵硬死板。
（2）将增加外汇储备作为政策目标
外汇储备是一个国家货币政策的重要组成部分。储备的变化用于平衡国际收支，它通常是各国的中央银行干预外汇市场的结果。改变储备的目的是为了稳定
汇率。因此改变外汇储备本身并不是政策目标，而是要保持汇率稳定以保护本国企业的出口竞争力。这与促进经济增长和确保充分就业的措施密切相关，而这两者都是保持发展平衡的关键内部因素。显然，改变外汇储备并不是货币政策的唯一目标。但在中国却有将外汇储备不断增长作为政策目标的趋势。
毫无疑问，关于中国外汇储备规模的各种理论误解是的中国外汇储备持续快速增长的重要因素，并且正酝酿着风险。
IV．对外汇储备政策的调整
中国的外汇储备一直保持着高增长率。尽管大规模的外汇储备加强了金融安全，但外汇储备资产本身的安全却仍然令人担忧。中国已经为其庞大的外汇储备付出了高昂的代价，承担了巨大的风险。还有更多的风险在等着，例如利息损失和外汇储备实际价值的缩水。大规模的外汇储备对中国的经济发展已有一系列的不利影响，并且制造了风险。中国外汇储备的现状已经变成了威胁金融安全的一个重要隐患。因此，目前迫切需要调整中国的外汇储备政策。
1.控制外汇储备的规模
首先，中国的外汇储备应该保持在合理的水平内。国际上普遍认为，外汇储备应该能够维持至少3个月的进口，3个月是公认的警告阀值。依据国际经验，外汇储备占外债余额的警戒比率为30%。从中国的角度来看，2004年中国3个月的进口需要大约1400亿美元的外汇储备，但还需要700亿美元来满足外汇储备占外债余额的警戒比率。如果考虑到外国投资者将利润转移到他们本国，金融改革以及其他不时之需，中国的外汇储备规模应该大体保持在3000-4000亿美元这样一个合理的范围内。
其次，中国需要选择一个合适的时机，对导致其国际收支持续顺差的相关宏观经济政策和策略作出调整，包括外贸，国外投资和产业政策。例如，关于贸易政策，中国长期以来实行传统的贸易战略，即依据通过出口创造外汇的基本原则，这就导致了贸易的持续顺差和外汇储备的高速增长，不仅加剧了人民币升值的压力，还带来了巨大的风险。此外，增强以人民币汇率为基础的决心，矫正其扭曲的形成机制，将会改善外汇市场，增强汇率灵活性和完善汇率形成机制，这样就能阻止外汇储备的高速增长。毫无疑问，调整相关的宏观经济政策，包括外贸政策和策略，正是确保中国外汇储备安全的需要。
2. 加强外汇储备的管理
就目前的情况看来，除了要控制外汇储备的规模，更重要的是中国要实施健全的外汇储备管理和使用制度。首先，应当妥善管理外汇储备，以便产生最大的
经济效益和社会效益。管理外汇储备，除了要降低其对宏观经济的不利影响，目前最迫切的任务是发挥大规模的人民币存款和外汇储备在促进经济增长方面的积极作用，建立起一套新的将储备和存款转变成为投资和资本的机制。其次，应当加强对外汇储备的风险管理，建立和改善风险管理框架。再次，应该改进外汇储备的运行效率。最后，应当理性的思考外汇储备的币种和资产结构。
一、我国外汇储备适度规模的理论估计 一国的外汇储备可以看作本国对外汇发行国的债权，持有合理数量的外汇储备既是出于保护本国经济安全的考虑，也是一国经济实力的体现。但是外汇储备如果构成不合理或者超过适度区间，就会带来一定的负面效应。那么，我国的外汇储备是否偏高呢？ 根据我国现阶段经济发展水平和外汇储备的实际需要两方面因素考虑，我国的外汇储备规模应为4540亿美元。鉴于4540亿美元是以2004年的数据为依据得出的结果，相对于我国当前所需要的外汇储备规模应该是偏小的，但考虑到我国现在外汇储备已经超过万亿美元大关，还是可以明显看出我国的外汇储备有过剩的倾向。 二、外汇储备过高的负面效应 过高的外汇储备给我国的经济平稳运行,已经带来了不小的挑战，主要表现在以下几个方面: 1.外汇储备过高,加大了人民币升值的压力。 2.高额的外汇储备改变了我国的货币的供应结构，一定程度上加大了通货膨胀的压力。影响我国货币政策的独立性。 3.外汇储备的汇率风险。 4.持有外汇储备的机会成本。 三、解决外汇储备过高问题的建议 通过以上分析，我们可以了解到超过适度规模的外汇储备会给一国经济平衡发展带来压力和风险。因此，我国有必要采取一些积极措施来抑制外汇储备不正常的扩大。当前我国的外汇储备管理可以从两个方面入手。首先是遏制外汇储备持续高速增长的势头，控制外汇储备规模。其次，对外汇储备结构适当调整，改变我国长期以来美元资产在外汇储备中独大的局面。 1.外汇储备规模的调整。(1)对进口措施进行调整。进口政策调整不仅可以减少我国过高的贸易顺差,也有利于消除政策干预造成的价格扭曲,建立开放的市场体系和灵敏的市场机制。同时,通过进口先进的技术和设备，也有利于促进我国相关产业的技术升级和产能扩大。(2)购买战略石油储备。石油是当今世界最重要的战略资源，被喻为“工业的血液”。但石油的蕴藏和使用却极不平衡。产油国和工业国之间控制与反控制的博弈，频繁发生的自然灾害以及国际游资在石油期货市场上的投机行为，都会造成石油价格的剧烈波动。今年国际原油价格曾经一度摸高至80美元一桶。过高的石油价格给我国国内经济的平稳发展带来了一定的负面影响。为了避免国际原油价格波动对我国国内经济的冲击，我国可以在石油价格回落到合理的时候，利用我国的外汇储备，加紧购买石油，扩大石油战略储备。(3)为社保基金注资。目前，全国的社保基金
中国外汇储备统计分析 [内容摘要] 文章针对中国高额外汇储备的现状，结合相关经济理论和统计方法，通过建立时间序列ARMA模型和多元回归模型，对1985年以来中国历年年末外汇储备量进行综合分析，对外汇储备的未来趋势做简单的预测，选取部分对外汇储备有较大影响的经济因素作为回归模型的解释变量，进行简要的分析。最后对中国外汇储备的结构以及中国外汇储备的适度性问题进行讨了论。 [关键词]外汇储备 ARMA模型多元回归模型 引言 国家外汇储备是一个国家货币当局持有并可以随时兑换外国货币的资产，是一个国家国际清偿力的重要组成部分，同时对于平衡国际收支、稳定汇率有重要的影响。一定的外汇储备是一国进行经济调节、实现内外平衡的重要手段。近年来中国外汇储备经历了高速增长阶段，成为世界外汇储备大国。中国外汇储备的合理性问题备受关注，中国高额外汇储备的利弊问题也成为相关专家学者长期讨论的话题。对于外汇储备是否越多越好，中国外汇储备是否超额等问题，也始终未能得出一致的结论。如何根据我国国情确定适度的外汇储备规模成为当前外汇管理的一项极为重要的任务。 一、中国外汇储备现状 1985—2012年年末中国外汇储备量和增长率（表1.1，图1.1）。1996 年底，我国外汇储备首次突破1000 亿美元大关， 2000 以后，我国外汇储备开始呈现快速增长趋势，2005 年末达到8188.72 亿美元，居全球第二。2006 年2 月，我国外汇储备达8537 亿美元，超过日本，跃居全球第一，成为最大的外汇储备持有国。同年11月，我国外汇储备突破10000亿美元。2009 年末, 我国外汇储备23991.52 亿美元, 超过G7 国家外汇储备之和。截至2012 年12 月，我国外汇储备规模33116亿美元，稳居全球第一。1990—2011 年20年间，中国的外汇储备增长了286.6 倍。
外文翻译 原文 Firms in International Trade Material Source: https://www.doczj.com/doc/4a11643137.html, Author: Andrew B. Bernard For most of its lengthy history the field of international trade largely ignored the role of the firm in mediating the flow of goods and services. Traditional trade theory explained the flow of goods between countries in terms of comparative advantage, that is, variation in the opportunity costs of production across countries and industries. Even the research focusing on differentiated varieties and increasing returns to scale that followed Helpman and Krugman continued to retain the characterization of the representative firm.?However, the assumption of a representative firm, while greatly enhancing the tractability of general equilibrium analysis, is emphatically rejected in the data. My research over the past decade has been an attempt to explore international trade from below: to understand the decisions of heterogeneous firms in shaping international trade and their effects on productivity growth and welfare. Firm Heterogeneity and Trade My early work with J. Bradford Jensen was motivated by a simple question: what do we know about firms that trade? The answer at the time was "very little" and our initial efforts focused on locating firm-level data and describing the world of exporting firms. Our first study compared exporters and non-exporters for the entire U.S. manufacturing sector and established a set of facts about exporting plants and firms.?Two major results stand out. First, only a small fraction of firms are exporters at any given time. Even in sectors where the United States is thought to have comparative advantage, such as Instruments, a majority of firms produce only for the domestic market. Similarly, some firms are exporting even in net import sectors such as Textiles and Apparel. Second, exporters are substantially and significantly different than non-exporters, even in the same industry and region. Exporters are dramatically larger, more productive, pay higher wages, use more skilled workers, and are more technology- and capital-intensive than their non-exporting counterparts. In related
中国外汇储备的分析(图文) 中国外储的分析 1、外汇储备简介 2、外储的配置分析 3、外汇资产的投资收益和外储流动性 4、外汇负债的投资收益和最终结算 5、止损的办法和后期的外储管理 6、总结 1、外汇储备简介 外汇储备是指一个国家的外汇积累.截至到2011年3月,中国的外汇储备总额超过3万亿美元. 从上图可以看到,中国的外汇储备在2000年年底时不足1700亿美元,之后开始大幅度增长.主要原因在于中国加入WTO,由于人民币汇率被人为低估(1:8),并提供了大量廉价资源和劳动力.形成资本洼地,也吸引了大量外商投资(FDI).大规模进行低端消费品制造,相对应的，美国从2001年开始走美元贬值之路,鼓励超前消费.一边是中国促进出口，一边是美国促进消费。于是积累了大量外汇顺差。这些外汇顺差是我国外汇储备的主要来源，另外一部分来自于FDI。 对于积累下来的外汇,中国央行在一定期限内以规定的比率强制结汇的方式.使得外汇迅速归拢到中央银行的手里.形成外汇储备资产.而中央银行发行对应的人民币交给老百姓作为流通使用.在这
个过程中,央行属于借款人.借的是老百姓和外商投资者手里的外汇.这些外汇收到央行之后,就记录在资产一栏.而老百姓和外商属于债权人.手里的人民币就是债权凭证.对于央行来说,这些印发的人民币需要记录在负债一栏,这是一一对应的关系.这样央行的资 产负债表才能做到平衡.这个过程也决定了这些外汇只能印发一次人民币.不然资产负债表就无法平衡.另外,央行的这些外汇储备一旦遭遇投资损失导致资产这一栏缩水的话,那对应的人民币负债也必须减少.就是得回收人民币来冲销外汇损失.如果不这么做的话,持有人民币的债权人.在卖出人民币,回收属于他们自己的资产— 外汇的时候,央行就会出现资不抵债的情况.所以,国内流通使用的人民币,说白了就是美元代用券.央行的外汇储备关乎着人民币的 坚挺程度.好比我们把银子存在钱庄,钱庄印了一张纸给你.盖上章.称之为银票.凭这个可以代替银子流通.也可以随时回银庄兑换银子.如果钱庄被强盗洗劫了.真金白银都没了.你说这些盖上章的银票还有人要么. 2、外储的配置分析 央行的资产负债表有两头,我们先来研究资产这一栏.因为这属于 国家的真金白银,其重要性不言而喻.先来看央行的资产负债表和 外储管理局发布的国际投资头寸表 因为中国外储的详细头寸布置是不公开的.这里只能做一个大概的估算.因为这两张表在时间不一致,我们选最近的时间点.央行的资产负债表选2011年1月份(人民币计价).外储管理局的选2010年
中国的对外贸易 第一、最近十年来我国的对外贸易白皮书基本内的容 自20世纪70年代末改革开放以来，对外贸易一直是中国经济最为活跃、增长最快的部分之一。2001年中国加入世界贸易组织以后，对外贸易的活力进一步增强。改革开放30年来的经验表明，外贸对拉动经济增长、扩大社会就业、推动产业升级、促进体制机制创新等方面的作用日益突出，对国民经济发展发挥着越来越重要的作用。同时，中国对外贸易发展也使中国经济成为世界经济一部分，促进了经济全球化向有利于世界各国和地区共同繁荣的方向发展。 大家知道，2011年12月11日是中国加入世贸组织十周年。10年来，中国走出了一条以开放促发展、促改革的道路。过去10年是中国发展最好最快的10年，也是与世界各国优势互补、利益共享的10年。在总结纪念“入世”十周年活动的背景下，我们首次发布《中国的对外贸易》白皮书，就是通过全面、客观地介绍中国对外贸易的基本情况，让社会各界更好地认识中国的对外贸易。我们也希望通过发表对外贸易白皮书，向国际社会和国内各界介绍中国对外贸易取得的历史性进步，表明中国将更加坚定地走改革开放道路的态度和决心。在新的历史条件下，我们将更加深入地参与经济全球化和区域经济一体化，更好地统筹国内国外两个大局，实现对外贸易的科学发展、可持续发展，实现与世界各国的共同发展和繁荣。 《中国的对外贸易》白皮书由前言、正文、结束语三部分组成，约1.3 万字。主要内容概括起来有以下六个方面： 一、中国对外贸易的历史性进步。详细介绍了改革开放以来中国外贸取得的成绩。中国对外贸易总量跻身世界前列，目前已经是世界第一大出口和第二大进口国。中国对外贸易结构发生了根本性变化，出口商品已经由初级产品为主向工业制成品为主转化。与此同时，中国已逐步形成了全方位和多元化的进出口市场格局，服务贸易国际竞争力不断增强。 二、中国外贸体制的改革与完善。回顾并阐述中国政府通过加快对外经济贸易法制化建设，采取进一步降低关税，削减非关税措施，全面放开外贸经营权，进一步扩大服务市场开放和营造更为公平的市场竞争环境等措施，中国的外贸体制逐步与国际贸易规则接轨，建立起统一、开放、符合多边贸易规则的对外贸易制度。 三、中国外贸发展对世界的贡献。国际金融危机爆发以来，中国对外贸易在全球率先趋稳回升，促进了世界经济复苏。中国对外贸易的发展不仅提高了中国与贸易伙伴的国民福利，而且为贸易伙伴提供了广阔市场。此外，中国全面参与并推动了全球经济治理机制的改革，是对最不发达国家开放市场程度最大的发展中国家之一。 四、促进对外贸易基本平衡增长。阐明一国对外贸易是顺差还是逆差，主要由其经济结构以及产品或服务的国际竞争力决定。中国并不刻意追求对外贸易的顺差。中国的货物贸易顺差主要来源于外商投资企业和加工贸易，中国政府为促进对外贸易平衡、协调发展采取了一系列切实有效的措施，取得了积极成效。 五、构建全方位互利合作经贸关系。中国的对外贸易是全方位发展的对外贸易，中国坚持与不分大小、贫富的所有贸易伙伴发展务实合作和互利共赢的经贸关系。中国十分重视双边和区域经贸合作的机制化建设，积极主动地参与并推动区域经济一体化进程，深入参与和推动世界贸易组织多哈回合谈判，努力维护多边贸易体制的权威性。 六、实现对外贸易的可持续发展。具体阐述了中国政府推动对外贸易全面、协调、可持续发展的努力。通过培育外贸发展的综合竞争优势，加快推进外贸发展中的节能减排，加强与贸易有关的知识产权保护，提高出口商品的质量和安全要求，增强进出口企业的社会责任意识，促进战略性新兴产业的国际合作等措施加快转变外贸发展方式，力争实现外贸的可持续发展。 简而言之，白皮书全面回顾了改革开放尤其是加入世界贸易组织以来我国对外贸易发展和改革进程，阐明了中国外贸发展对世界的贡献，澄清了中国货物贸易顺差产生的根源，阐述了中国政府为解决贸易不平衡问题、构建互利共赢的贸易关系、实现外贸的可持续发展所进行的努力，以及为此已经实施和将要实施的政策、措施。 第二、中国对外贸易值得关注的问题 1、入世以来我国对外贸易发展有哪些亮点？ 2011年是我国加入世贸组织十周年，弹指一挥间，加入世贸组织的时候，中国经济正面临着严峻的考验和挑战，当时东南亚金融危机的冲击还没有完全过去。但实践告诉我们，在过去的十年里，在dang zy、guowy的正确领导下，我们紧紧抓住加入世界贸易组织这个历史契机，化压力为动力、化挑战为机遇，既认真地履行了承诺，又充分享受了权利，在更大的范围和更深的程度参与了国际分工与合作，推动了中国经济社会的全面发展，取得
附录 F.1英文参考资料及中文翻译 F. 1 .1international trade documents role General international trade documents (international trade documents) is the international trade of use all the documents, documents and certificates collectively. Usually with international trade documents to deal with in and out of delivery of the goods El, transportation, insurance, inspection and quarantine, customs declaration, the settlement of exchange, etc. Special international trade documents usually refers to the settlement documents, especially the l/c under the way of settlement of documents. International trade documents and the use of import and export trade program closely related, the documents in the import and export enterprise work throughout the export, purchase, transportation, the whole process of the proceeds, the effort is big, timeliness strong, is broad, in addition to import and export enterprise internal between various departments the cooperation with the outside, still must and bank, customs, transportation department, insurance companies, the inspection and quarantine agencies and the relevant administrative authorities happen various contact, linked together, mutual influence, also are conditions. International trade documents for the performance of a contract is necessary means International trade is the transnational goods business, due to the particularity of the multinational business, which is the purchase and sale of the different departments are located in different countries, are remote, in most cases, the goods and payment can't perform simple direct exchange, but only as the medium of exchange with documents means. The international trade of the documents that sales of goods through the documents realization sale, the seller should not only will the actual delivery of goods export shipment, and should submit to the buyer include the title to the goods vouchers, complete documents to show real assignment. The seller/p means that the delivery of the goods, and the buyer payment is get to buy goods on behalf of property rights certificate, the deal is no longer with the goods as the core, but with documents as the core. Documents and payment of the convection principle has become the international trade of general principles of the commodity business. As international trade experts "; m Cardiff in the export trade in his book mentioned: "from a business perspective, can say CIF the purpose of the contract is not the buying and selling of goods itself, but the documents relating to the goods business." What say here "documents" is the international trade of documents. International trade documents many kinds, every kind of documents has its
龙源期刊网 https://www.doczj.com/doc/4a11643137.html, 我国外汇储备的现状及问题与分析 作者：尹继民 来源：《新西部·中旬刊》2012年第08期 【摘要】本文介绍了我国外汇储备现状，分析了我国外汇储备存在的问题及产生问题的原因，提出规避外汇风险的建议：调整我国外汇储备结构，适当拓宽投资渠道；利用外汇储备增加我国黄金、能源等占率储备；合理利用外汇储备促进我国的产业优化升级；将外汇储备投资于医疗、教育等关系国计民生的行业。 【关键词】外汇储备；利弊；改革 外汇储备（Foreign Exchange Reserve），又称外汇存底，指一国政府所持有的国际储 备资产中的外汇部分，即一国政府保有的以外币表示的债权。是一个国家货币当局持有并可以随时兑换外国货币的资产。狭义而言，外汇储备是一个国家经济实力的重要组成部分，是一国用于平衡国际收支平衡，稳定汇率，偿还对外债务的外汇积累。广义而言，外汇储备是指以外汇计价的资产，包括现钞、国外银行存款、国外有价债券等。外汇储备是一个国家国际清偿能力的重要组成部分，同时对于平衡国际收支、稳定汇率有重要的影响。 一、我国外汇储备现状 1996年底，我国的外汇储备首次突破1000亿元大关，在此后的四年，外汇储备上升的态势相对平稳。从2000年开始，我国的外汇储备开始呈现快速增长的趋势，并在2005年末，增至8188.72亿美元，居全球第三位。2006年2月，我国外汇储备达8537亿美元，并且超过日本，成为全球最大的外汇持有国。截止2012年一季度我国外汇储备为32557亿美元。表1是一个关于我国近几年来外汇储备规模变化的表格。 二、我国外汇储备中存在的问题 1、我国外汇储备结构过于单一，主要集中于对美元的持有 目前我国巨额的外汇储备主要是对美元的持有，美元资产占我国外汇储备的比率高达70%，而持有的美元中60%集中投资于美国国债和中长期债权。不可否认，美元是世界主要流通的货币，是各国外汇储备的重要持有形式。但如果外汇储备过于集中于美元，必然会导致我国外汇储备受制于美元；另外，对美国国债和中长期债券的大量投资缓解了美国政府的赤字，那些国债有效的刺激了美国经济的繁荣发展，却无法推动我国经济的发展。 此外，金融危机发生后，美国政府为了刺激经济的发展出台了高达七千亿的救市计划，进一步提高了财政赤字，这意味着美国政府将增发新的国债，其结果是美国国债价格不可避免的下跌，我国持有的美国国债的收益自然受到损失；进一步的财政赤字，还会导致美联储继续的
外文翻译 原文 World Trade and International Trade Material Source:https://www.doczj.com/doc/4a11643137.html, Author: Ted Alax In today’s complex economic world, neither individuals nor nations are self-sufficient. Nations have utilized different economic resources; people have developed different skills. This is the foundation of world trade and economic activity. As a result of this trade and activity, international finance and banking have evolved. For example, the United States is a major consumer of coffee, yet it does not have the climate to grow any or its own. Consequently, the United States must import coffee from countries (such as Brazil, Colombia and Guatemala) that grow coffee efficiently. On the other hand, the United States has large industrial plants capable of producing a variety of goods, such as chemicals and airplanes, which can be sold to nations that need them. If nations traded item for item, such as one automobile for 10,000 bags of coffee, foreign trade would be extremely cumbersome and restrictive. So instead of batter, which is trade of goods without an exchange of money, the United State receives money in payment for what it sells. It pays for Brazilian coffee with dollars, which Brazil can then use to buy wool from Australia, which in turn can buy textiles Great Britain, which can then buy tobacco from the United State. Foreign trade, the exchange of goods between nations, takes place for many reasons. The first, as mentioned above is that no nation has all of the commodities that it needs. Raw materials are scattered around the world. Large deposits of copper are mined in Peru and Zaire, diamonds are mined in South Africa and petroleum is recovered in the Middle East. Countries that do not have these resources within their own boundaries must buy from countries that export them. Foreign trade also occurs because a country often does not have enough of a particular item to meet its needs. Although the United States is a major producer of sugar, it consumes more than it can produce internally and thus must import sugar.
我国外汇储备的现状及问题与分析 本文介绍了我国外汇储备现状，分析了我国外汇储备存在的问题及产生问题的原因，提出规避外汇风险的建议：调整我国外汇储备结构，适当拓宽投资渠道；利用外汇储备增加我国黄金、能源等占率储备；合理利用外汇储备促进我国的产业优化升级；将外汇储备投资于医疗、教育等关系国计民生的行业。 标签：外汇储备；利弊；改革 外汇储备（Foreign Exchange Reserve），又称外汇存底，指一国政府所持有的国际储备资产中的外汇部分，即一国政府保有的以外币表示的债权。是一个国家货币当局持有并可以随时兑换外国货币的资产。狭义而言，外汇储备是一个国家经济实力的重要组成部分，是一国用于平衡国际收支平衡，稳定汇率，偿还对外债务的外汇积累。广义而言，外汇储备是指以外汇计价的资产，包括现钞、国外银行存款、国外有价债券等。外汇储备是一个国家国际清偿能力的重要组成部分，同时对于平衡国际收支、稳定汇率有重要的影响。 一、我国外汇储备现状 1996年底，我国的外汇储备首次突破1000亿元大关，在此后的四年，外汇储备上升的态势相对平稳。从2000年开始，我国的外汇储备开始呈现快速增长的趋势，并在2005年末，增至8188.72亿美元，居全球第三位。2006年2月，我国外汇储备达8537亿美元，并且超过日本，成为全球最大的外汇持有国。截止2012年一季度我国外汇储备为32557亿美元。表1是一个关于我国近几年来外汇储备规模变化的表格。 二、我国外汇储备中存在的问题 1、我国外汇储备结构过于单一，主要集中于对美元的持有 目前我国巨额的外汇储备主要是对美元的持有，美元资产占我国外汇储备的比率高达70%，而持有的美元中60%集中投资于美国国债和中长期债权。不可否认，美元是世界主要流通的货币，是各国外汇储备的重要持有形式。但如果外汇储备过于集中于美元，必然会导致我国外汇储备受制于美元；另外，对美国国债和中长期债券的大量投资缓解了美国政府的赤字，那些国债有效的刺激了美国经济的繁荣发展，却无法推动我国经济的发展。 此外，金融危机发生后，美国政府为了刺激经济的发展出台了高达七千亿的救市计划，进一步提高了财政赤字，这意味着美国政府将增发新的国债，其结果是美国国债价格不可避免的下跌，我国持有的美国国债的收益自然受到损失；进一步的财政赤字，还会导致美联储继续的增发纸币，使得美元继续贬值，我国将承受利率与汇率的双重损失。正是因为我国的外汇储备过于集中于美元使得其缺乏流动性。
Positioning in Practice Strategic Role of Marketing For large firms that have two or more strategic business units (SBUs), there are generally three levels of strategy: corporate-level strategy, strategic-business-unit-level (or business-level) strategy, and marketing strategy. A corporate strategy provides direction on the company's mission, the kinds of businesses it should be in, and its growth policies. A business-level strategy addresses the way a strategic business unit will compete within its industry. Finally, a marketing strategy provides a plan for pursuing the company's objectives within a specific market segment. Note that the higher level of strategy provides both the objectives and guidelines for the lower level of strategy. At corporate level, management must coordinate the activities of multiple strategic business units. Thus the decisions about the organization's scope and appropriate resource deployments/allocation across its various divisions or businesses are the primary focus of corporate strategy.Attempts to develop and maintain distinctive competencies tend to focus on generating superior financial, capital, and human resources; designing effective organizational structures and processes; and seeking synergy among the firm's various businesses. At business-level strategy, managers focus on how the SBU will compete within its industry. A major issue addressed in business strategy is how to achieve and sustain a competitive advantage. Synergy for the unit is sought across product-markets and across functional department within the unit. The primary purpose of a marketing strategy is to effectively allocate and coordinate marketing resources and activities to accomplish the firm's objectives within a specific product-market. The decisions about the scope of a marketing strategy involve specifying the target market segment(s) to pursue and the breadth of the product line to offered. At this level of strategy, firms seek competitive advantage and synergy through a well-integrated program of marketing mix elements tailored to the needs and wants of customers in the target segment(s). Strategic Role of Positioning Based on the above discussion, it is clear that marketing strategy consists of two parts: target market strategy and marketing mix strategy. Target market strategy consists of three processes: market segmentation, targeting (or target market selection), and positioning. Marketing mix strategy refers to the process of creating a unique
1950年至今中国外汇储备的变化趋势和原因分析 摘要：从1950年至今，我国的外汇储备从量到质都发生了巨大的变化，从改革开放之前年均不足5个亿的外汇储备，甚至是某些年份的负储备，到改革开放之后外汇储备的成倍增长，我国外汇储备的规模一步步扩大，甚至可以说实现了跨越式增长。而这正体现了1950年特别是改革开放至今我国经济的飞速发展以及我国外汇经济政策随经济形势的调整与改革。本文旨在分析1950年至今我国外汇储备的变化趋势及其原因，并就当前经济形势对于我国外汇经济政策的一些意见。 关键字：外汇储备;发展趋势;经济政策 一、问题的提出：1950年至今我国外汇储备情况分析 表一国家外汇储备规模 （1950年-2011年） 单位：亿美元
表二我国外汇储备柱状图 单位：亿美元
自建国以来,我国的外汇储备经过了从无到有,进而在小规模上取得迅速发展的过程,我国外汇储备的增长,是我国十几年来发展的巨大成就，尤其是30年来改革开放政策取得成效的一个结果。而这个结果在经过卓有成效的经营管理后,反过来又成为促进宏观经济稳定和发展的一个重要因素。 从表一不难看出,在新中国建立初期,外汇储备的数量很少,平均水平只有1亿到2亿美元左右。这一时期,国际国的政治和经济都处于敏感时期,国家实行的也是封闭条件下的计划经济,对外贸易很少,外资无法流入,长期下来,中国经济发展陷入了一个贫困化的泥潭。 直到1978年,我国实行了改革开放政策,外汇数量出现了小额的增长,但仍不稳定,存在大起大落的现象。在1980年我国外汇为—12。96亿美元，1981年开始变为正值为27美元，随着我国国力的不断增强，我国的外汇储备也不断的增强。1983年,由于实行了外汇留成制度和贸易外汇部结算价, 对鼓励出口，增加外汇收入，支持地方生产建设，发展对外贸易产生了极大的影响,外汇储备增长很快,到达了89亿元。然而，就在1984年，出现了经济过热的现象，进口猛增，出口下降，经常账户出现较大逆差，到1986年外汇储备低至20亿。1989年和1990年，为促进经济回升，曾两次下调人民币汇率，有力地推动了出口，资本流入平稳增长。到1991年外汇储备激增四倍，从56亿美元增加到217亿美元。经历过几十年的大起大落，在1994年1月推出了外汇体制改革，实行并轨制,我国开始实行以市场供求为基础的、单一的、有管理的浮动汇率制。这项举措大大提高了国企业出口的积极性。到1996年，外汇储备从1993年的200多亿增加到1050亿。1998年，受1997年8月爆发的亚洲金融危机的影响，我国出口出现很大幅度的下降，但由于我国政府采取了积极的措施，外汇储备没有出现下降，反而继续保持增长的趋势，到年底达到1449。59亿美元，仅此与日本，跃居世界第二。2001年，我国加入了WTO，加入了国际市场至此，我国外汇储备呈现连续增长的势头。 二、我国外汇储备变化的原因分析 我国外汇储备经过了几十年的发展，尤其是改革开放后，迅速增加，集中反映了国家经济发展的成就。30多年来，对外经济交流的扩大，对外经济贸易的发展，外资的大量涌入和国适时的各项政策，都为外汇增长做出了突出的贡献。我国的外汇储备已经成为我国综合实力的集中表现。 根据近几年的数据来看，外汇储备的增长似乎过快，但是这却是在当前所处的经济发展阶段下，国际收支“双顺差”的客观结果。所以很多人认为外汇储备
巨额外汇储备能否用于解决民生问题 国际金融作业 专业：经济学 学号：2010161007 姓名：郭帅
巨额外汇储备能否用于解决民生问题 截至9月末，中国外汇储备达32850.95亿美元，这引起了社会各界广泛的关注和讨论。 有观点认为，我国外汇储备是国内千千万万企业或个人用实实在在的商品、能源、资源以及隐性的环境代价换来的，是老百姓的“血汗钱”。因此应该还富于民，巨额的外汇与其一直缩水不如用于解决关乎人民利益的民生问题。 对此，国家外汇管理局称，我国外汇储备是由人民银行通过投放基础货币在外汇市场购汇形成的。购汇所使用的本币资金直接来源于中央银行的负债，反映为中央银行负债的增加，因此外汇储备直接体现在中央银行资产负债表的资产方，与相应的央行负债对应。在人民银行买入外汇的时候，已经向原外汇持有人支付了相应的人民币。换句话说，外汇储备形成过程中，企业和个人不是把外汇无偿交给国家，而是卖给了国家，并获得了等值人民币。这些交易都是出于等价和自愿的原则，企业和个人的经济利益在外汇和人民币兑换时已经实现。 外汇储备应该“取之于民，用之于民”，如果直接分给民众不合适，那是否可以剥离一部分外汇储备成立主权养老基金，以充实我国社会保障体系？ 国家外汇管理局称，不论是将外汇储备直接分给老百姓的建议，还是将外汇储备直接用于养老、医疗、教育等社会福利的建议，都涉及外汇储备是否可以无偿分配使用的问题。外汇储备不同于财政盈余资金，是中央银行在外汇市场购汇形成，在中央银行的资产负债表上对应着本币负债。免费使用外汇储备，性质上相当于中央银行随意印钞票，无节制地扩大货币发行，会造成通货膨胀等严重后果。在“依法合规、有偿使用、提高效率、有效监管”的管理原则指导下，外