棉花研究分析
分类：
（一）棉花基本分类
按长度来分，棉花分为长绒棉和细绒棉，细绒棉的长度一般在25~31毫米，长绒棉的长度在33毫米以上。我国所产原棉约99%为细绒棉。正常成熟的细绒棉，色精白、洁白或乳白，纤维柔软有丝光，长度23~33毫米，单纤维强力3.3~5克，细度4500~6400米/克。棉籽肥大，着生有灰白色短绒。
Classification:
(1) Cotton basic classification
According to the length, cotton into long-staple cotton and cotton, linen cotton length generally in 25 ~ 31 mm, the length of the leading producer of long-staple cotton in 33 mm and above.Raw cotton from about 99% in our country as the fine cotton.Normal mature of fine cotton, color white, white or milky white, fiber soft silk, 23 to 33 mm in length, single fiber strength 3.3 ~ 5 g, fineness of 4500 ~ 6400 m/g.Hypertrophy of cotton seed, born with grey linter.
（二）棉花质量主要指标
1．品级。品级是指棉花品质的级别。根据棉花的成熟程度、色泽特征和轧工质量，
分为7个级，7级以下为级外。品级标准级是3级。
主体品级：含有相邻品级的一批棉花中，所占比例80%及以上的品级。同一批棉花中，除了主体品级的比例达到80%及以上外，还不允许有跨主体品级的棉花。不符者应挑包整理或协商处理。（注：跨主体品级是指主体品级及其上下相邻品级之外的其它品级，即同一批棉花中，不能有与主体品级相差2个级及以上的棉花）。如：一批棉花中，(1)若1
级占10%，2级占80%，3级占10%，该批棉花的主体品级是2级。（2）若1级占10%，2
级占75%，3级占15%，则该批棉花无主体品级（没有占到80%及以上的级别），需重新整理。（3）若1级占90%，3级占10%，虽然主体品级1级的比例达90%，但有3级棉花存在，属跨主体品级1级的范围，该批棉花不符合国家标准的要求，需重新整理。
2．长度。棉花长度是指棉纤维伸直后的长度。国家标准规定：以1毫米为级距，采
用“保证长度”的原则，分为7个级。分级如下：
25毫米，包括25.9毫米及以下；
26毫米，包括26.0—26.9毫米；
27毫米，包括27.0—27.9毫米；
28毫米，包括28.8—28.9毫米；
29毫米，包括29.0—29.9毫米；
30毫米，包括30.0—30.9毫米；
31毫米，包括31.0毫米及以上。
5级棉花长度在于27毫米时，按27毫米计；6、7级棉花长度均按25毫米计。长度标准级是28毫米。
3．马克隆值。这是反映棉花成熟程度和细度的综合指标，国家标准规定分为A、B、C 三个级，标准级是B级。各级的范围是：
A级：3.7-4.2；
B级：3.5-3.6，4.3-4.9；
C级：3.4及以下，5.0及以上。
(2)The quality of cotton main indicators
1. The grades.Grade refers to the cotton quality level.According to the mature degree of cotton, color characteristics and the rolling quality of work, is divided into seven levels, level 7 level as below.Quality standard is level 3.
The subject grades: a batch of cotton, containing adjacent grade proportion of grade of 80% or more.With a batch of cotton, in addition to subject grade proportion reached 80% or more, also not allowed to have cross subject grades of
cotton.Inconsistent should choose package sorting or negotiation process.(note: cross subject grade quality refers to the subject and its adjacent grade other than grades, that is the same in the cotton, there can be differ with the subject grade cotton grade two and above).Such as: a group of cotton, if (1) level 1 (10%), 2 (80%), 3 (10%), the main body of the batch of cotton grade is grade 2.(2) if the level 1 (10%), 2 (75%), 3 (15%), then this batch of cotton without subject grades (no) accounted for 80% and above level, need to rearrange.(3) if the level 1 (90%), 3 (10%), while the subject grade level 1 ratio of 90%, but there is a level 3 cotton, is a cross subject of grade 1 level range, the batch of cotton does not accord with the requirement of national standard, need to rearrange.
2. Length.The cotton length refers to the length of cotton fiber after the
straight.Standard regulations of the state: 1 mm as notches, adopt the principle of "length", is divided into seven levels.Classification is as follows:
25 mm, including 25.9 mm and below;
26 mm, including 26.0-26.9 mm;
27 mm, including 27.0-27.9 mm;
28 mm, including 28.8-28.9 mm;
29 mm, including 29.0-29.9 mm;
30 mm, including 30.0-30.9 mm;
31 mm, including 31.0 mm and above.
Level 5 cotton length is 27 mm, according to 27 millimeters;Level 6 or 7 cotton length are calculated by 25 millimeters.The standard length is 28 mm.
3. The incompatible micronaire.
This is cotton maturity and fineness of comprehensive index, the standard provisions of the state is divided into A, B, C three level, standard level is class B.At all levels of the range is:
Class A: 3.7-4.2;
B: 3.5-3.5, 3.6-4.9;
Class C: and under 3.4, 5.0 and above.
（三）我国主要棉花品种简介
以下为我国各主产棉省推广面积50万亩以上的主要品种及新育成品种（系）的介绍
1）鲁棉品种
2）豫棉品种
3) 新疆棉品
（3）The introduction of cotton varieties in our country below for our country the main area of more than 500000 acres, the main varieties and breeding new varieties (or lines) is introduced as follows：
1)Shandong cotton varieties
2)Henan cotton varieties
3) XinJiang Cotton varieties
—鲁棉品种
—Shandong cotton varieties
—豫棉品种
—Henan cotton varieties
—新疆棉品种—XinJiang Cotton varieties
价格走势：
棉价后市分析（2014棉花市场分析及2015价格预测）
1、棉价走势预期
今年国家取消临时收储政策，不论是棉农、收购商还是棉纺企业，都预计国内棉价仍将保持低位运行，上涨空间有限。
棉农综合认为，目前棉花价格与棉农的心理预期差之甚远，惜售心理严重。棉农对目前国家实行的目标价格管理政策知之甚少，对于国家下一步出台相关政策仍有期待，因此存棉不卖。
加工企业认为，今年国内棉价已经“一落千丈”，随着新棉规模上市，供给的快速增加，棉价后期仍会呈现下行趋势。
2、从国际方面看
部分国家棉花种植面积增加，全球棉花库存偏高，随着棉花规模上市，国际棉价出现下跌。同时，国外棉价低于国内棉价，外棉占有价格优势，纺织企业更青睐质量好价格低的外棉。短期内，棉花供应过剩的格局难以扭转，预计棉价低迷仍将持续一段时间。
图二进口棉花价格指数与国内棉花价格指数的比较
3、从国内市场来看
10-11月，全国纺纱量连续两个月下跌，冀鲁豫市场的纱线价格保持振荡调整格局，以减少库存为主,开机率依旧不饱和，下游企业对棉花需求不足，国内
棉市掀起一波降价风潮。山东省大型纺企先后下调皮棉到厂价，11月底3128级皮棉价格已跌至13000元/吨，较上周下跌400元/吨。新疆站台提货价目前在14200-14400元/吨，运至山东、河北的成本价在14700-14900元/吨，较上周下跌200元/吨，成交清淡。期货市场方面，近期郑棉CF1501合约、CF1505合约均在13000元/吨下方运行，ICE期棉在60美分/磅下方波动，市场悲观氛围较浓。
近期棉价大跌的主要原因：
一是供应增加。11月中旬以来，新疆手摘棉、机采棉集中上市。截至11月25日新疆地区棉花加工已完成263余万吨，入库239.9万吨，已接近总产量的66%。如果加上200型企业、非“目标价格试点改革”企业、纺企加工厂生产的棉花，预计新疆棉花至少已加工完成300万吨。
二是产量和消费量不平衡。三年收储时期，加工的棉花绝大部分进入国储库。若按600万吨的产量，60万吨的月消费量来计算，12月底后将有420万吨变成社会库存，由纺企、棉企、棉商共同分担。但由于资金及经营情况方面的压力，多数纺企坚持随用随买，所以，大部分库存压力将集中到轧花厂及棉商。尤其是进入11月中下旬，棉花加工量明显高于销售量，轧花厂库存压力持续增长。
三是棉花质量不尽人意。国内棉混等混级及三丝问题严重，多地棉花颜色、纤维长度、马值等指标不达标。
目前除有资质证和400型打包机的棉厂，收购少量国储棉外，绝大多数加工企业收购进度较慢。大量新棉上市集中在11-12月，届时棉花收购价格下跌，将对1月价格形成压制。
综上所述，目前棉花价格已处于历史低位，预计11月底至2015年1月上旬棉价将呈现振荡探底态势运行。但棉价继续深度下跌的可能性不大，主要原因：一是农业部数据显示，今年全国棉花种植面积比去年下降8.7%，全年棉花产量比上年有所减少;二是企业挺价，国内一些大型棉商、轧花厂表示将坚持棉花报价不变，给市场带来些许支撑。
今年国家取消收储政策，在新疆开展棉花目标价格改革试点。除新疆试点外，国家今年还将对山东等9省棉花生产者给予定额补贴，补贴标准为每吨皮棉2000
元。加上补贴，一吨皮棉的价格在16000元左右，折合籽棉价格为3.68元左右，目前补贴政策已经明确，农户应该可以放心售棉，减少市场观望情绪。
新疆棉价格在13700-13800元/吨，内地山东、江苏、河南、河北等地仓库报价14400-14600元/吨(毛重提货)，但用棉企业询价、采购的积极性仍不高。
Prices Tendency:
Cotton prices (2014 cotton market analysis and 2015 price forecast)
1, The cotton price trend forecast
National cancel reserve policy this year, whether farmers and sellers or cotton spinning enterprise, is expected to domestic cotton prices will remain low, limited upside.
Cotton farmers comprehensive thought, the price of cotton and cotton farmers far the poor psychological expectations, psychological serious rised.Cotton farmers know very little about the state shall practise a target price management policy, the national relevant policies are still looking forward to next, so don't sell cotton.
Processing enterprises believe that the domestic cotton prices this year has been "dive", as the size of the crop, rapid increase of supply, prices will still be late presents downward trend.
2,From the international side
Part of the national cotton planting area increased, global inventories on the high side, as the scale of cotton, international cotton prices fell.At the same time, foreign prices lower than domestic cotton prices, cotton has a price advantage, textile enterprises prefer good quality low price of cotton.In the short term, the pattern of the excess supply of cotton is difficult to reverse, cotton prices downturn still is expected to last for a period of time.
Figure 2 imported cotton prices and domestic cotton prices index in comparison
3, From the domestic market
November 10 - national yarn quantity decline for two consecutive months, hebei shangdong and henan province yarn prices remain oscillation adjustment pattern of the market, in order to reduce inventories, machine still not saturated, the downstream enterprises lack of demand for cotton, domestic cotton in a wave of price cuts.Shandong large FangQi have cut cotton DaoChangJia, at the end of November 3128 grade cotton prices have dropped to 13000 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton from last week.Xinjiang platform delivery price is in 14200-14400 yuan/ton, shipped to the cost price of shandong, hebei in 14700-14900 yuan/ton, down from last week 200 yuan/ton, light volume.The futures market, the recent zheng cotton CF1501 contracts, CF1505 contracts are run under 13000 yuan/ton, ICE period cotton under 60 cents/pound, market pessimistic atmosphere is strong.
The main reason for the recent cotton prices plunge:
One is the increased supply.Since mid-november, pick up cotton hand picking cotton in xinjiang, focus on the market.As of November 25, xinjiang cotton processing has completed more than 263 ten thousand tons, 2.399 million tons of inventory, is close to 66% of the total output.If combined with 200 type enterprise, the pilot program of the "target price", FangQi processing factory production of cotton, is expected to xinjiang cotton has finished in at least 3 million tons.
Second, the output and consumption imbalance.Three years, collection and storage period for the most part processing cotton into the repository.If the output of 6 million tons, 600000 tons of monthly consumption to calculate, after the end of December 4.2 million tons of inventory in a society by FangQi cotton, cotton mills, traders share.But as a result of pressure on capital and operating situation, most FangQi adhere to buy along with it, so most of the inventory pressure will focus to cotton ginning mill and cotton.Especially in mid to late November, cotton was
significantly higher than that of sales, cotton ginning mill inventory pressure continues to grow.
Third is the cotton quality is unsatisfactory.Domestic cotton blended mix level and three problems such as serious, more color cotton, fiber length, horse value indicators such as substandard housing.
At present there are professional and CARDS in addition to the 400 type packer cotton factory, buy a small amount of state reserve cotton, the vast majority of processing enterprises purchase progress is slow.A large number of listed concentration of the crop in November and December, when the cotton purchase prices, price forming pressing for January.
To sum up, the price of cotton has been historically low, is expected to the end of November to early January 2015 cotton prices will trend oscillation dip.But is unlikely to depth of cotton prices continue to fall, the main reasons: one is the ministry of agriculture, according to data from the national cotton acreage this year than last year fell 8.7%, annual output of cotton last year has decreased;2 it is enterprise's price, some large domestic cotton, cotton ginning mill said it would adhere to the cotton price is the same, give some support to market.
Government cancel the purchase and storage policy this year to carry out the target price of cotton in xinjiang pilot reforms.Except xinjiang pilot, the state will also be in nine provinces of shandong this year quota subsidies for cotton producers, the standards of subsidies for cotton 2000 yuan per https://www.doczj.com/doc/43939791.html,bined with subsidies, the price of a ton of cotton in 16000 yuan, or seed cotton price of 3.68 yuan, the current subsidy policy has been clear, farmers should be able to rest assured to sell cotton, reduce markets wait-and-see mood.
XinJiangMian prices in 13700-13800 yuan/ton, shandong, jiangsu, henan, hebei and other mainland warehouse quotation for 14400-14400 yuan/ton (gross weight) to pick up the goods, but the enterprise inquiry, the purchase of cotton enthusiasm is not high.