【经济学人】第三次科技革命
第一次工业革命伴随着纺织行业的发展兴起于18世纪的英国。这次革命将数百个分散的手工作坊聚集到有几百人的供方里，工厂制诞生。20世纪早期，亨利福特主导的大型流水线生产线开启了大规模生产的时代。前两次工业革命让人们变得更加富裕以及城市化。现在，第三次技术革命正在来临。制造业变得更加智能。本周特别报告显示：这可不仅仅是对商业的根本改变，它还有更多其它方面的变化。
THE first industrial revolution began in Britain in the late 18th century, with the mechanisation of the textile industry. Tasks previously done laboriously by hand in hundreds of weavers’ cottages were brought together in a single cotton mill, and the factory was born. The second industrial revolution came in the early 20th century, when Henry Ford mastered the moving assembly line and ushered in the age of mass production. The first two industrial revolutions made people richer and more urban. Now a third revolution is under way. Manufacturing is going digital. As this week’s special report argues, this could change not just business, but much else besides.
第一次工业革命伴随着纺织行业的发展兴起于18世纪的英国。这次革命将数百个分散的手工作坊聚集到有几百人的供方里，工厂制诞生。20世纪早期，亨利福特主导的大型流水线生产线开启了大规模生产的时代。前两次工业革命让人们变得更加富裕以及城市化。现在，第三次技术革命正在来临。制造业变得更加智能。本周特别报告显示：这可不仅仅是对商业的根本改变，它还有更多其它方面的变化。1
A number of remarkable technologies are converging: clever software, novel materials, more dexterous robots, new processes (notably three-dimensional printing) and a whole range of web-based services. The factory of the past was based on cranking out zillions of identical products: Ford famously said that car-buyers could have any colour they liked, as long as it was black. But the cost of producing much smaller batches of a wider variety, with each product tailored precisely to eac h customer’s whims, is falling. The factory of the future will focus on mass customisation—and may look more like those weavers’ cottages than Ford’s assembly line.
技术融合愈发明显：智能软件、新型材料、智能机器人、新型的工艺（比如三维印刷技术）全方位的网络服务。过去的工厂化生产基于的是相同磨具，生产的产品都是同质化的：福特著名的名言就是：也许你喜欢颜色各异的T—型车，但是我们只生产黑色T型车。但是成本高昂的大规模生产正趋于衰落。跟灵巧的客户定制模式多元化生产正在兴起。与福特的大规模流水线相比，未来的工厂将更像以往的手工作坊——更加注重客户需求。
Towards a third dimension
立体发展：
The old way of making things involved taking lots of parts and screwing or welding them together. Now a product can be designed on a computer and “printed” on a 3D printer, which creates a solid object by building up successive layers of material. The digital design can be tweaked with a few mouseclicks. The 3D printer can run unattended, and can make many things which are too complex for a traditional factory to handle. In time, these amazing machines may be able to make almost anything, anywhere—from your garage to an African village.
旧有的生产方式是将大量的零配件用螺丝焊接在一起。现在的由电脑设计的产品直接连接3D打印机，这将创建固有产品对象和材料提供层面紧密相联。数字设计可以通过轻敲鼠标调整涉及，3D打印机能够自动运行，而且处理更多跟复杂的事情。这些对于传统的工厂类型都是难以胜任的。时间层面，这些不可思议的机器能在任何时间任何地点做出任何你想要
的产品——无论你是在车库还是非洲村庄。
The applications of 3D printing are especially mind-boggling. Already, hearing aids and high-tech parts of military jets are being printed in customised shapes. The geography of supply chains will change. An engineer working in the middle of a desert who finds he lacks a certain tool no longer has to have it delivered from the nearest city. He can simply download the design and print it. The days when projects ground to a halt for want of a piece of kit, or when customers complained that they could no longer find spare parts for things they had bought, will one day seem quaint.
3D打印技术的应用尤其令人惊喜。现在，助听器以及军用飞机的高科技零件已经采取这种方式进行生产了。传统的地域供应链将会改变。在沙漠工作的工程师发现缺少某种工具的话，也不必在从附近的城市邮寄了。他可以简单的下载设计图把他打印出来就可以了。某天当一个项目由于某个部分停工，或者客户抱怨他们找不到合适的汽车零配件的时候，这样的日子或许看起来有点奇怪了。
Other changes are nearly as momentous. New materials are lighter, stronger and more durable than the old ones. Carbon fibre is replacing steel and aluminium in products ranging from aeroplanes to mountain bikes. New techniques let engineers shape objects at a tiny scale. Nanotechnology is giving products enhanced features, such as bandages that help heal cuts, engines that run more efficiently and crockery that cleans more easily. Genetically engineered viruses are being developed to make items such as batteries. And with the internet allowing ever more designers to collaborate on new products, the barriers to entry are falling. Ford needed heaps of capital to build his colossal River Rouge factory; his modern equivalent can start with little besides a laptop and a hunger to invent.
其他方便的变化也很重要。新型材料比旧有的材料更轻、硬度强更耐用。碳纤维已经取代铁和铝被引用到从飞机制造到山地车的各个领域内。新的技术能让工程师们在及其微笑的尺度内任意塑造物品。纳米技术能让产品功能更强，比如能哦股帮助愈合伤口的绷带，陶瓷制造的引擎效率更高，更容易清理。基因工程正在对病毒的结构进行研究，用以生产电池。互联网的应用让新产品设计师们能够相互协调，打破进入壁垒。福特公司帮助建立了大型的聚酯国内工厂，福特公司最新的汽车会装配灵巧的智能电脑和新奇的发明。
Like all revolutions, this one will be disruptive. Digital technology has already rocked the media and retailing industries, just as cotton mills crushed hand looms and the Model T put farriers out of work. Many people will look at the factories of the future and shudder. They will not be full of grimy machines manned by men in oily overalls. Many will be squeaky clean—and almost deserted. Some carmakers already produce twice as many vehicles per employee as they did only a decade or so ago. Most jobs will not be on the factory floor but in the offices nearby, which will be full of designers, engineers, IT specialists, logistics experts, marketing staff and other professionals. The manufacturing jobs of the future will require more skills. Many dull, repetitive tasks will become obsolete: you no longer need riveters when a product has no rivets.
跟所有革命一样，后果是有破坏性的。数字技术已经改变了美体和零售行业，正如纺织工坊的繁荣正式由T型车的出厂技术的一样。很多人将会对未来工厂感到恐惧。这些工厂里不再充斥着油雾满身的工人。工厂里只会听到轻微的机器转动的声音——而里面几乎空无一人。现代的汽车制造商几乎是过去两倍的产量。而工人几乎只是过去的十分之一。大部分工作并不是在工厂而是在办公室完成的，里面有设计师、工程师、IT技术人员、市场营销专家以及行政人员。制造业的工作做起未来将会需要更多的技术。许多重复、无聊的技术工种将会消失：毕竟你的产品也在不需要铆钉了。
The revolution will affect not only how things are made, but where. Factories used to move to
low-wage countries to curb labour costs. But labour costs are growing less and less important: a $499 first-generation iPad included only about $33 of manufacturing labour, of which the final assembly in China accounted for just $8. Offshore production is increasingly moving back to rich countries not because Chinese wages are rising, but because companies now want to be closer to their customers so that they can respond more quickly to changes in demand. And some products are so sophisticated that it helps to have the people who design them and the people who make them in the same place. The Boston Consulting Group reckons that in areas such as transport, computers, fabricated metals and machinery, 10-30% of the goods that America now imports from China could be made at home by 2020, boosting American output by $20 billion-55 billion a year. 技术革命不仅对如何制造产品带来影响。在何地制造也会产生影响。现代很多工厂通常会到劳动力成本较低的国家生产以节省劳动成本。但是未来的劳动成本将会越来越高。IPAD 的499元成本当中只有33元是制造成本，而最后在中国的装配成本只有8元。跨国生产企业逐渐搬回富裕的国家，不是因为中国劳动力成本的增长，而是因为想离消费者更近以便及时应对顾客需求变化。有些产品是如此复杂，以至于设计者和生产者们必须在一起进行工作才能完成。波士顿咨询集团估计，预计到2020年，目前美国从中国进口的交通运输设备、电脑、金属和机械制品的10%-30%都可以自己生产。而出口将会增长到200--550亿美元。The shock of the new
新技术的冲击
Consumers will have little difficulty adapting to the new age of better products, swiftly delivered. Governments, however, may find it harder. Their instinct is to protect industries and companies that already exist, not the upstarts that would destroy them. They shower old factories with subsidies and bully bosses who want to move production abroad. They spend billions backing the new technologies which they, in their wisdom, think will prevail. And they cling to a romantic belief that manufacturing is superior to services, let alone finance.
消费者对快递和新产品的功能的适应可能稍有不便。然而政府可能就会感到十分困难了。政府取向保护那些已经存在的工业和企业，免于新技术的冲击。他们给予旧有的工厂高昂补贴以便让那些国外的坏老板们把工厂移到国外。他们花费数十亿美元拒绝新技术，他们自以为聪明的认为自己会获胜。他们理想的想法是制造业永远优先于服务。那么我们就让他们一个人玩去吧。
None of this makes sense. The lines between manufacturing and services are blurring. Rolls-Royce no longer sells jet engines; it sells the hours that each engine is actually thrusting an aeroplane through the sky. Governments have always been lousy at picking winners, and they are likely to become more so, as legions of entrepreneurs and tinkerers swap designs online, turn them into products at home and market them globally from a garage. As the revolution rages, governments should stick to the basics: better schools for a skilled workforce, clear rules and a level playing field for enterprises of all kinds. Leave the rest to the revolutionaries.
这显然是毫无道理的，制造和服务之间本身就难以区别。劳斯雷斯便不再出售飞机引擎；他实际上是出售时间，对飞机引擎的信任迅捷的把你送到世界各地。政府在挑选获胜者从未成功过，很可能未来也是如此。如今许多思想家和企业界认识在线互通有无，他们可能在家生产制成品而市场就更自己车库一样。对于新技术革命的冲击，政府应该做好基本的措施：良好的技工学校，将革命者们，置于明确公平的企业竞争环境中。
Leopard seals share their suppers 豹海豹会分享它们的晚餐 Bad news if you are a penguin 假如你是一只企鹅，这真是个坏消息 Leopard seals resemble their terrestrial namesakes in two ways.They have polka-dot pelts.And they are powerful,generally solitary carnivores that are quite capable of killing a human being if they so choose—as has indeed happened once,in2003,when a British marine biologist was the victim. 豹海豹与生活在陆地上的同名动物（豹）有着两点相似之处。其一，它们的皮毛上都有着圆点花纹。其二，它们都是强大的独栖性食肉动物，只要它们愿意，是完全有能力杀死一个人的——正如2003年真实发生的那样，当时一位英国海洋生物学家就成了受害者。 Curiously,though,there have also been reports of leopard seals behaving in a friendly manner towards people—apparently trying to present gifts,in the form of prey,to divers. 但奇怪的是，也有报道称豹海豹对人类表现得十分友好——它们很显然把猎物作为礼物赠送给了潜水员。 Until now,there has been no explanation for this philanthropy.But work just published in Polar Biology by James Robbins of Plymouth University, in Britain,suggests that what the seals are actually looking for is a dining partner.
Japanese commuters try new ways to deter gropers 日本通勤族尝试用新方法防止性骚扰 Victims are fighting back with apps,badges and invisible ink 受害者正在用应用程序、徽章和隐形墨水来反击 Throughout her20s,Yayoi Matsunaga was groped,almost daily,on packed rush-hour trains going to and from work.Three decades later,she discovered that her friend’s daughter was being molested on her commute to high school. 在松永弥生20多岁的时候，她几乎每天都会在上下班高峰拥挤的列车上被人骚扰。30年过去了，她发现她朋友的女儿仍会在上高中的通勤路上被人骚扰。 The teenager,after fruitless talks with the police and railway companies, decided to hang a sign from her bag that read:“Groping is a crime.I will not cry myself to sleep.”The groping stopped immediately. 在与警方和铁路部门交涉无果后，这名女孩决定在她的书包上挂一个牌子，上面写着：“性骚扰就是犯罪，我不会暗自哭泣的。”效果立竿见影。 Inspired,Ms Matsunaga launched a crowdfunding campaign in2015to create badges with the same message.They proved as effective as the sign: nearly95%of users stopped experiencing groping on public transport, according to a survey.
考研同源外刊《经济学人》最常用600个词汇（下） 401、Final goods最终产品 旨在最终使用而非转卖或进一步加工的商品。(参见"中间产品"，intermediate goods) 402、Financial economics金融经济学 经济学的一个分支。分析理性投资者如何通过最有效的方式使用资金和进行投资以期达到目标。 403、Financial intermediary金融中介 接受储蓄存款并将其出借给借款者的机构。包括存款机构(如商业银行和储蓄银行)和非存款机构(如货币市场共同基金、经纪人商行、保险公司或养老基金)。 404、Firm(business firm)厂商 (企业)经济体系中基本的私人生产单位。它雇用劳动，购买其他投入品，以制造和销售商品。 405、Fiscal-monetary mix财政-货币政策组合 用以干预宏观经济活动的财政政策和货币政策的组合。紧缩的货币政策和宽松的财政政策，倾向于鼓励消费和抑制投资。而宽松的货币政策和紧缩的财政政策，则具有相反的功效。 406、Fiscal policy财政政策 一种政府计划。内容包括：(1)商品和服务的购买及转移支付等支出；(2)税收的数量和种类。 407、Fiscal cost固定成本 见固定成本(cost，fixed)。 408、Fixed exchange rate固定汇率
见外汇汇率(foreign exchangs rate)。 409、Flexible exchange rates弹性汇率制 一种国际汇率制度。在该制度条件下，汇率主要由市场力量(即供给和需求)决定，政府不设定及维持某种特定的汇率。有时也称作"浮动汇率制"(floating exchange rates)。当政府对外汇市场不加干预时，该制度称为纯粹的浮动汇率制。 410、Floating exchange rates浮动汇率制 见弹性汇率制(flexible exchange rates)。 411、Flow vs stock流量与存量 流量是指，带有时间跨度或曰在一个时段上所累积变动的量(好比通过一个河段的水流)。存量则指，在某一个时点上某一变量的量值(如同湖中所盛的水)。收人代表每一年的美元流入数，因此是一个流量。而到1998年12月为止某人的财富则是一个存量。 412、Foreign exchange外汇 各国用以偿付对他国所欠债务的通货(或其他金融票据)。 413、Foreign exchange market外汇市场 不同国家的通货进行交易的市场。 414、Foreign exchange rate外汇汇率 一国通货与他国通货的交换比率或曰价格。例如，如果你可以用1美元购买19德国马克，那么马克的汇率就是19。如果一国通货钉住某一汇率水平，并准备随时捍卫这一汇率，则称该国实行的是固定汇率制(fixed ex-change rate)。而由市场供求力量来决定的汇率称为弹性汇率制(flexible exchange rates)。 415、Fourfirm concentration rate四企业集中度 见集中度(concentration ratio)。 416、Fractional-reserve banking部分准备金 银行制度现代银行体系的一种管制形式。依法要求有关金融机构将其所吸收的存款
Autism? 自闭症 Why it's not “Rain Woman”? 为什么它不是“雨女” Women have fewer cognitive disorders than men do because their bodies are better at ignoring the mutations which cause them? 与男性相比，患有认知障碍的女性较少，因为她们自身的身体能更好的忽略导致认知障碍的基因突变 AUTISM is a strange condition. Sometimes its symptoms of “social blindness”(an inability to read or comprehend the emotions of others) occur alone. This is dubbed high-functioning autism, or Asperger's syndrome. Though their fellow men and women may regard them as a bit odd, high-functioning autists are often successful (sometimes very successful) members of society. On other occasions, though, autism manifests as part of a range of cognitive problems. Then, the condition is debilitating. What is common to those on all parts of the so-called autistic spectrum is that they are more often men than women —so much more often that one school of thought suggests autism is an extreme manifestation of what it means, mentally, to be male. Boys are four times more likely to be diagnosed with autism than girls are. For high-functioning autism, the ratio is seven to one.?
The dash off cash 挥金如土 Rich countries must start planning for a cashless future 发达国家必须开始为无现金的未来做计划 For the past3,000years,when people thought of money they thought of cash.From buying food to settling bar tabs,day-to-day dealings involved creased paper or clinking bits of metal. 在过去的3000年里，每当提起钱，人们总会想到现金。从购买食物到酒吧吧台结算消费，日常交易用到的都是皱巴巴的纸币或叮当作响的硬币。 Over the past decade,however,digital payments have taken off—tapping your plastic on a terminal or swiping a smartphone has become normal.然而，过去十年间，数字支付已经兴起——在终端上刷卡或刷手机已经变得平常。Now this revolution is about to turn cash into an endangered species in some rich economies.That will make the economy more efficient—but it also poses new problems that could hold the transition hostage. 如今，这场革命即将要把一些发达国家的现金变为“濒危物种”。数字支付能够让经济更高效，但同时也带来了一些可能会阻碍经济转型的新的问题。 Countries are eliminating cash at varying speeds.But the direction of travel is clear,and in some cases the journey is nearly complete.In Sweden the number of retail cash transactions per person has fallen by80%in the
Free exchange 自由交易 The digital proletariat 数字无产阶级（无产阶级，不占有生产资料的阶级，这里意思我们产生数据，却无偿的交由互联网公司使用） 导读： Economists propose a radical solution to the problems posed byartificial intelligence 经济学家提出了一个彻底解决人工智能相关问题的方法。 正文： YOUhave multiple jobs, whetheryouknowitornot. 不管你有没有意识到，你身上都有多种生意。 Most begin first thing in the morning, when you pick up your phoneand begin generatingthe data thatmake up Silicon Valley’smost importantresource. 大多数生意在早晨开始，你拿起手机时就开始产生了数据。这些数据组成了硅谷最重要的资源 That, atleast, ishowwe oughtto think aboutthe role ofdata-creation in the economy, according to a fascinating new economics paper. 至少，这就是我们应该思考的：数据创造在经济里扮演怎样的角色，这是根据一篇很有吸引力的新经济文章提到的。
We are all digital labourers, helpingmake possible the fortunes generated by firms like Google andFacebook, the authors argue. 其中作者认为，我们就是所有数字的劳工，帮助像谷歌和脸书这样的公司创造财富。（fortunes命运，幸运，富有）Ifthe economy is to function properlyin the future—and ifa crisisoftechnological unemployment isto be avoided—we musttake accountofthis, and change the relationship between biginternetcompaniesand theirusers. 在未来经济运转良好的情况下，如果想要避免工业发展带来的失业危机，我们必须着眼于这件事情，并且改变大型互联网公司和他们用户之间的关系。 Artificial intelligence (AI) is getting better all the time, and stands poised totransform a host of industries, say the authors 作者说，人工智能势头一直越来越好，势必（准备）改变一大批工业。 But, in orderto learn to drive a carorrecognize a face, the algorithmsthatmake clever machines tick（滴答，拟声词，表示机器运作）mustusuallybe trained on massive amountsofdata. 但是，为了做到自动驾驶和人脸识别（主语是AI），使智能机器运作的法则必须经常用非常大量的数据进行测试。Internetfirms gather these data from users every time they click on aGoogle search result, say, orissue a command to Alexa.
The Brain Activity Map 绘制大脑活动地图 Hard cell 棘手的细胞 An ambitious project to map the brain is in the works. Possibly too ambitious 一个绘制大脑活动地图的宏伟计划正在准备当中，或许有些太宏伟了 NEWS of what protagonists hope will be America’s next big science project continues to dribble out. 有关其发起人心中下一个科学大工程的新闻报道层出不穷。 A leak to the New York Times, published on February 17th, let the cat out of the bag, with a report that Barack Obama’s administration is thinking of sponsoring what will be known as the Brain Activity Map. 2月17日，《纽约时报》刊登的一位线人报告终于泄露了秘密，报告称奥巴马政府正在考虑赞助将被称为“大脑活动地图”的计划。 And on March 7th several of those protagonists published a manifesto for the project in Science. 3月7日，部分发起人在《科学》杂志上发表声明证实了这一计划。 The purpose of BAM is to change the scale at which the brain is understood. “大脑活动地图”计划的目标是改变人们在认知大脑时采用的度量方法。 At the moment, neuroscience operates at two disconnected levels. 眼下，神经学的研究处在两个断开的层次。 The higher one, where the dimensions of features are measured in centimetres, has many techniques at its disposal, notably functional magnetic-res onance imaging, which measures changes in tissues’ fuel consumption. 在相对宏观的层次当中各个特征的规模用厘米来衡量，有很多技术可以使用，尤其是用来测量组织中能量消耗变动情况的核磁共振成像技术。 This lets researchers see which bits of the brain are active in particular tasks—as long as those tasks can be performed by a person lying down inside a scanner. 该技术可使研究人员找出在完成具体的任务时，大脑的哪些部分处于活跃状态。At the other end of the scale, where features are measured in microns, lots of research has been done on how individual nerve cells work, how messages are sent from one to another, and how the connections between cells strengthen and weaken as memories are formed. 而另一个度量的层次则要求用微米来测量各种特征，这一层次的研究很多都是关于单个神经细胞是如何工作的、信息在神经细胞之间是如何传递的以及当产生记忆的时候神经细胞之间的联系是如何得到加强和减弱的。 Between these two, though, all is darkness. 然而，位于这两个层次之间的研究还处于一片漆黑当中。 It is like trying to navigate America with an atlas that shows the states, the big cities and the main highways, and has a few street maps of local neighbourhoods, but displays nothing in between.
Disney Star Wars, Disney and myth-making How one company came to master the business of storytelling FROM a galaxy far, far away to a cinema just down the road: “The Force Awakens”, the newest instalment of the Star Wars saga, is inescapable this Christmas. The first Star Wars title since Lucasfilm, the owner of the franchise, was acquired by Disney in 2012 for $4.1 billion, it represents more than just the revival of a beloved science-fiction series. It is the latest example of the way Disney has prospered over the past decade from a series of shrewd acquisitions (see article). Having bought Pixar, Marvel and Lucasfilm, Disney has skilfullycapitalised on their intellectual property—and in so doing, cemented its position as the market leader in the industrialisation of mythology. Its success rests on its mastery of the three elements of modern myth-making: tropes, technology and toys. From Homer to Han Solo Start with the tropes. Disney properties, which include everything from “Thor” to “Toy Story”, draw on well-worn devices of mythic structure to give their stories cultural resonance. Walt Disney himself had an intuitive grasp of the power of fables. George Lucas, the creator of Star Wars, is an avid student of the work of Joseph Campbell, an American comparative mythologist who outlined the “monomyth” structure in which a hero answers a call, is assisted by a mentor figure, voyages to another world, survives various trials and emerges triumphant. Both film-makers merrily plundered ancient mythology and folklore. The Marvel universe goes even further, directly appropriating chunks of Greco-Roman and Norse mythology. (This makes Disney's enthusiasm for fierce enforcement of intellectual-property laws, and the seemingly perpetual extension of copyright, somewhat ironic.) The internal mechanics of myths may not have changed much over the ages, but the technology used to impart them certainly has. That highlights Disney's second area of expertise. In Homer's day, legends were passed on in the form of dactylic hexameters; modern myth-makers prefer computer graphics, special effects, 3D projection, surround sound and internet video distribution,
What went wrong IN RECENT months many economists and policymakers, including such unlikely bedfellows as Paul Krugman, an economist and New York Times columnist, and Hank Paulson, a former American treasury secretary, have put “global imbalances”—the huge current-account surpluses run by countries like China, alongside America’s huge deficit—at the root of the financial crisis. But the IMF disagrees. It argues, in new papers released on Friday March 6th, that the “main culprit” was deficient regulation of t he financial system, together with a failure of market discipline. Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist, said this week that global imbalances contributed only “indirectly” to the crisis. This may sound like buck-passing by the world’s main interna tional macroeconomic organisation. But the distinction has important consequences for whether macroeconomic policy or more regulation of financial markets will provide the solutions to the mess. In broad strokes, the global imbalances view of the crisis argues that a glut of money from countries with high savings rates, such as China and the oil-producing states, came flooding into America. This kept interest rates low and fuelled the credit boom and the related boom in the prices of assets, such as houses and equity, whose collapse precipitated the financial crisis. A workable long-term fix for the problems of the world economy would, therefore, involve figuring out what to do about these imbalances. But the IMF argues that imbalances could not have caused the crisis without the creative ability of financial institutions to develop new structures and instruments to cater to investors’ demand for higher yields. These instruments turned out to be more risky than they appeared. Investors, overly optimistic about continued rises in asset prices, did not look closely into the nature of the assets that they bought, preferring to rely on the analysis of credit-rating agencies which were, in some cases, also selling advice on how to game the ratings system. This “failure of market discipline”, the fund argues, played a big role in the crisis. As big a problem, according to the IMF, was that financial regulation was flawed, ineffective and too limited in scope. What it calls the “shadow banking system”—the loosely regulated but highly interconnected network of investment banks, hedge funds, mortgage originators, and the like—was not subject to the sorts of prudential regulation (capital-adequacy norms, for example) that applied to banks. In part, the fund argues, this was because they were not thought to be systemically important, in the sense that banks were understood to be. But their being unregulated made it more attractive for banks (whose affiliates the non-banks often were) to evade capital requirements by pushing risk into these entities. In time, this network of institutions grew so large that they were indeed systemically important: in the now-familiar phrase, they were “too big” or “too interconnected” to fail. By late 2007, some estimates of the assets of the bank-like institutions in America outside the scope of existing prudential regulation, was around $10 trillion, as large as the assets of the regulated American banking system itself. Given this interpretation, it is not surprising that the IMF has thrown its weight strongly behind an enormous increase in the scale and scope of financial regulation in a series of papers leading up to the G20 meetings. Among many other proposals, it wants the shadow banking system to be subjected to the same sorts of prudential requirements that banks must follow. Sensibly, it is calling for regulation to concentrate on what an institution does, not what it is called (that is, the basis of regulation should be activities, not entities). It also wants regulators to focus more broadly on
1、The Americas Argentina's debt Let's not make a deal Argentina may spurn a chance to settle with its creditors 美洲阿根廷债务别签协议啦阿根廷或将还债机会弃如敝履 WHEN Argentina defaulted on its debt for the second time in 13 years last July, the government blamed a pesky clause in its contracts with bondholders. 去年七月，阿根廷发生了十三年来的第二次债务违约，而政府却将这次违约归咎于与债权人签订的合同中的某项麻烦条款。 The so-called Rights Upon Future Offers (RUFO) clause was set to expire on December 31st,in theory opening the way to a settlement with bondholders who had refused Argentina's earlier offers of partial payment. 由于之前债权人拒绝阿根廷部分偿还，这项本应于12月31日到期的未来发行权利（RUFO）条款理论上可以解决与债权人之间的债务问题。 A deal would make it easier to borrow dollars, which the country badly needs to pay for imports. 这项协议可以为阿根廷借入美元提供更多便利，有了美元，阿根廷就可以解决进口商品所使用货币的燃眉之急。 But the president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, may spurn the opportunity. 不过，克里斯蒂娜?费尔南德斯?基什内尔总统却有可能将这一机会弃如敝履。 After its previous default (in 2001) Argentina offered RUFO as a way to entice bond holders to swap the old debt for new bonds worth much less than the original ones. 上次（2001年）债务违约后，阿根廷通过RUFO 怂恿债券持有人进行债务掉期，也就是说用原先价格较低的旧债券交换价格较高的新债券。 The clause says that any future deal offered to some bondholders would be extended to all of them. 这一条款规定，合同签署后，政府和部分债券持有人达成的协议将适用于全体债券持有人。 In 2012 a court in New York ruled that Argentina would have to pay in full the small minority of bondholders who refused the debt swap. 2012年，纽约一家法院判定阿根廷政府应向拒绝债务掉期的少数债券持有人一次付清所有债务。 These are mostly American hedge funds, which bought the bonds at a fraction of their face value. 后者主要是美国对冲基金，它们当初就是以远远低于面值的价格买入了阿根廷债券。 Argentina argued that complying with the court order would trigger billions in payments to all holders of bonds issued under New York law, and so chose to default. 阿根廷称，根据纽约法律，按法庭裁决行事将导致对债券持有人支付高达数十亿的费用，于是便选择了违约。 Since the court's ruling, its foreign-exchange reserves have dwindled to 30 billion, less than needed to pay for six months' imports. 法院作出判决后，阿根廷外汇储备已缩减至300亿美元，甚至不足以支付六个月的商品进口。 Low commodity prices mean that few dollars are flowing in. 较低物价意味着美元流入会更少。 The government has responded by further restricting imports, which has led to shortages of supplies to factories and of some consumer goods. 由于限制进口导致工厂供货和部分日用品出现了短缺，政府已对进一步限制进口做出了回应。 That is one reason why the economy is expected to shrink by around 1% in 2015. 这便是阿根廷经济增速预计将在2015年下跌1个百分点的原因之一。 Debt payments during the year will siphon off some 40% of international reserves. 全年的债务将造成外汇储备流失40%。In December Argentina tried to reduce that drain by offering holders of bonds due for repayment new securities that mature in 2024. 十二月时，阿根廷曾试图给债券持有人提供2024年到期的新债券，以避免本国外汇储备消耗过快。 The gambit failed miserably:just 4% of creditors volunteered to exchange their 2015 bonds. 这项策略后以惨败告终:只有4%的债权人自愿用2015年债券进行兑换。 Things are so desperate that the government will soon make an attractive offer to holdout bondholders, some observers believe. 一些观察家认为，当前情况万分危急，政府不久就会制定出富有吸引力的政策来维系人心。 The expiration of the RUFO clause makes the cost bearable; the government would not have to make the same offer to the other bondholders. 这次RUFO条款期满后，违约成本尚可担负；但政府今后不会再和其他债券持有人签署同样的协议了。But that is a minority view. 不过，这只是小部分人的看法。 The real obstacles to paying off the holdouts have always been political rather than contractual, many think. 许多人认为，一直以来，政府无力清偿债务的真正原因都不是合同问题，而是各种政治方面的因素。 Ms Fernandez and her advisers demonised them as vultures and blamed them for many of Argentina's woes. 在费尔南德斯总