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并购的风险因素分析
摘要：
目的——目前世界市场经济的全球化趋势，这意味着公司合作和加强两国关系。公司致力于发展当地市场没有许多可能性，所以合并和收购(并购)可以有机会为他们与来自世界各地的公司合作。本文的主要目标是最重要的并购交易的风险因素。这将是基于世界各地的一些著名的合并和收购的原因是什么写论文或研究的目的？
设计/方法/方法——在欧洲和美国一些研究表明，许多并购注定要失败。本文是基于研究的数据写的。Selen,g·科尔文(2003)和s·杰克逊·r·舒勒(2002)。也有相似的结论1998 - 2002年在波兰市场。几乎40%的交易失败。本文将比较一些合并和收购的案例。
发现这种分析的结果，考虑理论和实践解决方案，显示了并购失败的主要原因。他们存在内部和外部风险因素。并购的选择更短和更便宜的方式发展相当于传统的资本投资。另一方面，他们有耗时和高风险的特点。
研究局限性——这项研究是基于一些世界并购流程指出主要的重点是这些交易的风险因素。
实际意义——本文的结论应该找对那些有兴趣的公司的领域投资。它显示了本地和国际市场的主要威胁。
社会影响，本研究对社会的影响是什么？它将如何影响公众的态度？它将如何影响企业社会责任或环境问题？怎么通知公共或行业政策吗？它会如何影响生活质量？
创意/价值——本文显示最重要的内部和外部风险因素。了解那些方面可能非常有助于企业在并购交易过程中避免错误。
关键字：合并、收购、风险因素、整合、公司价值、金融风险、操作风险。
论文类型的观点
介绍目前世界市场经济的特点是全球化趋势，这意味着公司合作和加强两国关系。20世纪初以来的并购数量迅速增加不仅显现在世界经济中，而且在波兰这种情况更加明显。21世纪的头两年的并购使世界各地的活力严重下降。在2003年,这些交易的数量和金额又开始增长。并购是一个更短和更便宜的发展方式相当于传统的资本投资。另一方面，他们是特别耗时的,特点是高风险。在欧洲和美国一些研究表明，许多交易不达到目标，注定要失败。美国在2003年进行的研究显示，几乎70%的并购交易都没有达到的主要目标公司价值的增长(Selen,科尔文,2003)。AT Kearney的分析师得出类似的结论，只有约15%的并购交易在美国实现财务成功(杰克逊,舒勒,2002)。我们可以看到类似的研究结果在波兰并购市场在1998 - 2002年,超过40%的交易是注定要失败(Piecek,2004)。
本文的主要目标是分析最重要的并购交易的风险因素。这将是基于一些世界上著名的合并和收购的案例。
合并和收购——基本定义
合并和收购的公司事务导致股权结构的变化。
并购是相似的公司结合，两个公司变到一个独立的法律实体。在某些情况下，在结合
不等于―合并‖，结合不是一个收购行为是纯粹出于政治或营销的原因。合并两个公司，股东通常用他们的旧公司的股票在新公司换取同等数量的股票(布里格姆,休斯顿,2001)。
并购可以像收购一样，但结果两个公司合并成一个新的公司名称(通常是结合原公司的名称)和新品牌。并购或收购，另一方面的特点是大的公司购买一个小公司。
收购合并可以产生相同的优点,但它并不一定是一个共同决定因素。一个更大的公司可以发起敌意收购更小的公司，这基本上意味着收购该公司面对的阻力较小的公司的管理层(Sudarsanam,2005)。
合并，收购，收购方通常根据目标公司股东指定的转化率提供一个现金每股的价格收购的目标公司的全部股票。无论哪种方式，买方基本上从财务上购买目标公司，购买其股票直接成为其控股股东。
并购涉及的两家公司将共同决定成为一个实体。在商业和经济学上是两家公司的结合成一个更大的公司。这些公司的活动是自愿的和一致的。在市场合作伙伴关系中通常有一个相同的立场(Lewandowski,1998)。合并可以在两种不同的方式中进行。首先，两家公司合并溶解和新公司形成。合并后公司的股东收到新公司的股票。这种合并称为整合(统一)(多宾斯,Fr?ckowiak威特,1992)。第二种类型是通过收购合并，即合并。在这种情况下的公司之一是连接到另一个。将失去法人资格的公司，股价将收购公司的新股价所取代。
合并的定义表明,至少有一个公司失去了法律实体,这意味着两家公司合并,成为一个更大的实体。
收购(收购)这一术语通常意味着一个公司的行为控制着另外一个公司。这是可以做到通过购买公司的股票被收购，私有化、租赁、合资或购买本公司的资产(Fr?ckowiak,1998)。因此，接管了被并购的公司是一个更大的公司的一部分(如资本集团的一部分)。这时候被并购公司失去了独立法人。另一方面,该公司收购不会失去其实体。
通常传统的合并和收购是没有区别的。很难明确区分这两个概念并确保我们正在处理两个中的哪一个。在文学中这两个概念往往交替使用。
并购限制和风险
事实表明并购的主要风险复杂的和过程是极其耗时的。合并或收购的影响可以持续好几年。此外,并购的运营成本往往非常高，因此并购之初的从组织和个人的变化，对解雇工人的遣散费，技术和技术变革，培训工人等壁垒和限制,期间或之后的整合过程可以分为内部来源的企业自身和外部的公司只有有限的影响力。
内部限制，包括工人的电阻变化或获得资金交易，可以消除通过适当的操作进行管理，如初步研究关于公司财务的可能性和通知员工关于计划的变化。
并购过程的实现等经济因素特别是取决于经济形势，国内生产总值，法律和管理解决方案，利率水平以及非经济因素如政治紧张局势。这些因素可以算做外部限制的消除或缓和更加困难,经常是不可能的。
年初以来的第五波并购顾问和咨询公司一直在进行研究,应该描述风险因素与合并和收购。主要风险组,根据受访者的意见扮演主要的角色在决定欧洲公司的合并或收购，是表1中给出。这项研究是由戈德史密斯贴水头盔的代表性美国私人股本基金。
两家公司的管理风格上的差异是并购交易中最重要的危险因素之一。这种风险主要关
注国际关系的心态和文化事务的参与者可以是不同的。购买一家生物技术公司Hyberitech 最大的制药公司之一——礼来公司在1986年收购的一个例子，失败了是由于不同的管理风格。有一个非正式的管理方式在Hyberitech反对独裁风格应用以来，由于误解许多经理人Hyberitech离开他们的工作。礼来公司出售的Hyberitech 1995年不到5%的价格被收购(胡克,1997)。
第二个重要的风险因素在这个研究是尽职调查分析。这源于这样一个事实：尽职调查通常只对收购公司的财务报告进行验证(天玺,Roux Weddigen,2004)。虽然是评估目标公司的一个非常重要的元素，分析经理不能忘记战略分析，不仅考虑财务业绩还要为收购计划的买家发现潜在利润。一个的交易失败的例子就是由于过于乐观的预期和不尽职调查分析导致明基收购西门子手机在2005年6月宣告失败。明基的经理想要加强品牌的市场地位的策略并没有产生预期的效果，因为收购的海外公司西门子移动，其正在一个非常困难的经济状况。
第二因素是至关重要的，成功的并购是遵照不同国家的法律制度，特别是antimonopolistic领域的立法。此外，尤其是在中欧和东欧中东欧国家，政府往往是公司的合伙人，它影响这公司内部变化和并购计划。
根据j·c·胡克并购过程中的风险可以分为三个基本组：经营风险、金融风险和支付风险(胡克,1997)。操作风险的担忧，新公司可能不会产生预期的结果，这将产生低规模优势。可以重组进入新领域的业务活动。风险较小的是收购公司扩大其产品范围或增加市场份额。低经营风险的一个例子是维斯瓦河S.A.的合并,2006年Wolczanka s . a合并两家公司之前没有相互竞争,但生产的是互补商品，所以合并导致更大范围的产品。
金融风险与金融事务。公司通常用借来的资本融资。除此之外，他们不得不接管债务和债务购买的候选人。使用贷款资金的交易可能导致更好的为股东盈利的能力和更好的财务比率，但另一方面，公司的总债务却大幅增长了，因此，金融成本和净利润增长具有可变性。?ywiec集团有限公司收购Brewpole容积与依赖公司(WarkaElbreweryLe?ajsk有限公司有限公司有限公司)之前，?ywiec集团S.A.的特点是有相当稳定的财务状况。1999年，收购后不到12个月，整个集团的财务成本从800万PLN PLN1.2亿年和2001年增长到了近2亿PLN(Zywiec集团1998 - 1998年)。这一系列的重组活动导致的财务状况的改善和减少了?ywiec集团的财务风险。
过高的风险与收购公司支付的价格
被收购公司的股东，有时协同效应和增加的收入导致买方估计过于乐观。奖金太高时，产生的成本可能超过优势事务,导致失败。
安格K?dzierska-Szczepaniak，格但斯克大学，波兰
外文原文
Risk Factors of Mergers and Acqrisitions
Angelika K?dzierska-Szczepaniak
Gdansk University, Poland
Abstract
Purpose –The world market economy is currently characterized by the tendency to globalization, which means that companies have to cooperate and tighten their relations. Companies working on the local market do not have many possibilities for development, so mergers and acquisitions (M&A) can be a chance for them to cooperate with companies from all over the world. The main goal of this paper is to present the most important risk factors for M&A transactions. It will be based on some famous mergers and acquisitions made all over the world What are the reason(s) for writing the paper or the aims of the research?
Design/methodology/approach – Some research made in Europe and USA show that many of mergers and acquisitions are destined to fail. The data in this paper is based on research of L.Selen, G. Colvin (2003) and S. Jackson, R. Schuler (2002). There were also similar conclusions on the Polish market in 1998-2002. Almost 40% of the transactions were failure. The paper will be a comparison of some mergers and acquisitions made all over the world. Case studies, synthesis and description will be used in this article.
Findings – The result of this analysis, that takes into consideration theoretical and practical solutions, shows the main reasons of M&A failure. They lie in the internal and exterior risk factors. Mergers and Acquisitions are the alternative, shorter and cheaper way of development in comparison with the traditional capital investment. On the other hand, they are time-consuming and characterized of high risk.
Research limitations/implications – This research is based on some world M&A processes case-studies. The main focus is on the risk factors of those transactions.
Practical implications - Conclusions of this paper should me helpful for those companies that are interested in brown field investment. It shows the main threats both on the local and international market.
Social implications (if applicable) - What will be the impact on society of this research? How will it influence public attitudes? How will it influence (corporate) social responsibility or environmental issues? How could it inform public or industry policy? How might it affect quality of life? Not all papers will have social implications.
Originality/value - This paper shows the most important internal and exterior risk factors. The knowledge about those aspects can be very helpful for companies to avoid mistakes in M&A transactions.
Keywords Mergers, acquisitions, risk factors, consolidation, company value, synergy effects,
financial risk, operational risk.
Paper type Viewpoint
Introduction The world market economy is currently characterized by the tendency towards globalization, which means that companies have to cooperate and tighten their relations. Since the beginning of the 20th century the number of mergers and acquisitions has been increasing rapidly not only in the world economy, but also in the Polish one. The first two years of the 21st century brought a decrease in the dynamism of mergers and acquisitions all over the world. In 2003 the value and volume of those transactions started to grow again. Mergers and acquisitions are an alternative, shorter and cheaper way of development in comparison with the traditional capital investment. On the other hand, they are time-consuming and characterized by high risk. Some researches made in Europe and USA show that many of those transactions do not reach the goals and are destined to fail. American research conducted in 2003 shows that almost 70% of mergers and acquisitions do not reach the main goal which is the growth of the company value (Selen, Colvin, 2003). The analysts of AT Kearney came to a similar conclusion that only about 15% of M&A transactions in the United States achieved financial success (Jackson, Schuler, 2002). We could see similar research results on the Polish merger and acquisitions market in 1998-2002 where over 40% of the transactions were destined to fail (Piecek, 2004).
The main goal of this paper is to present the most important risk factors for M&A transactions. It will be based on some famous mergers and acquisitions made all over the world.
Mergers and Acquisitions – Basic Definitions
Mergers and acquisitions of companies are transactions which cause changes in the stock ownership structure and frequently in the main business strategy.
Mergers and acquisitions are similar corporate actions which combine two previously separate companies into a single legal entity. In some cases, terming the combination a "merger" rather than an acquisition is done purely for political or marketing reasons. In a merger of two corporations, the shareholders usually have their shares in the old company exchanged for an equal number of shares in the merged entity (Brigham, Houston, 2001).
A merger can resemble a takeover but it results in a new company name (often combining the names of the original companies) and in new branding. A takeover, or acquisition, on the other hand, is characterized by the purchase of a smaller company by a much larger one.
An acquisition can produce the same benefits as a merger, but it does not necessarily have to be a mutual decision. A larger company can initiate a hostile takeover of a smaller firm, which essentially means buying the company in the face of resistance from the smaller company's management (Sudarsanam, 2005).
Unlike in a merger, in an acquisition, the acquiring firm usually offers a cash price per share to the target firm's shareholders or the acquiring firm's shares to the shareholders of the target firm according to a specified conversion ratio. Either way, the buyer essentially finances the purchase of the target company, buying it outright from its shareholders.
Merger involves the mutual decision of two companies to combine and become one entity. In business and economics it is a combination of two companies into one larger company. The activity of those companies is voluntary and unanimous. The partners usually have a similar position on the market (Lewandowski, 1998). The merger can proceed in two different ways. First, both companies that merge are dissolved and quite a new company comes into being. The shareholders of merged firms receive shares of the new company in exchange for the previous one. This kind of merger is called consolidation (unification) (Dobbins, Fr?ckowiak, Witt, 1992). The second type is merger made through acquisition, i.e. incorporation. In this case one of the companies is attached to the other one. The company that is incorporated loses its legal personality and the shares are replaced by the new shares of the attaching company.
The definition shows that in a merger at least one company loses its legal entity, which means that two companies combine and become one larger entity.
The term acquisition (takeover) usually means the act of one company taking control over another
company. It can be done by means of buying shares of the company being acquired, privatization, tenancy, joint venture or buying assets of this company (Fr?ckowiak, 1998). As a result, the company that was taken over is a part of the bigger company (e.g. it is a part of a capital group). When it happens the company loses its independence and is controlled by the new owner. On the other hand, the company that was acquired does not lose its entity.
The differences between mergers and acquisitions are often conventional. It is very difficult to clearly distinguish between the two notions and make sure that we are dealing with either of the two. In literature those words are often used interchangeably.
Restrictions and risk in mergers and acquisitions
The major risk in M&A processes results from the fact that they are complex and time-consuming. The effects of a merger or acquisition can be felt for several years. Moreover, mergers and acquisitions are very often connected with very high operating costs which result from the organizational and personal changes, severance pay for dismissed workers, technical and technological changes, training workers, etc. Barriers and the limitations which can appear before, during or after the consolidation process can be divided into internal which have their source in the enterprise itself and external on which the company only has limited influence.
The inter nal limitations, which include workers’ resistance to changes or gaining funds for transactions, can be eliminated by proper actions undertaken by the management, such as preliminary research about the company’s financial possibilities and informing employ ees about planned changes.
The realization of M&A process depends especially on such economic factors as the economic situation, GDP, legal and administrative solutions, the level of interest rate as well as non-economic factors such as political tensions. These factors can be rated among external limitations whose elimination or moderation is more difficult and very often impossible.
Since the beginning of the fifth wave of M&A advisory and consulting firms have been conducting research that should characterize risk factors connected with mergers and acquisitions. The main risk groups which according to the respondents’ opinions play the main role in taking decisions about mergers or acquisitions of European companies, are presented in Chart 1. The research was carried out by Goldsmith Agio Helms on the representative sample of American private equity funds.
The difference in management styles of both companies is one of the most important risk factors in M&A transactions. Such risk concerns primarily the international connections where the mentality and culture of transaction’s participants can be different. The purchase of a biotechnological company Hyberitech by one of the largest pharmaceutical firms - the Eli Lilly in 1986 was an example of an acquisition which failed due to different management styles. There was an informal style of management in Hyberitech as opposed to an authoritarian style applied in Eli Lilly. As a result of misunderstandings, many managers of Hyberitech left their jobs. Eli Lilly sold the Hyberitech for less than 5% price of purchase in 1995 (Hooke, 1997).
The second important risk factor o in this research is due diligence analysis. This results from the fact that due diligence is often limited only to the verification of the financial reports of the acquired company (Cullinan, Roux, Weddigen, 2004). While it is a very important element of the whole assessment of the company, the managers cannot forget about strategic analysis which takes into consideration not only the financial results but also the logic of the planned acquisition and potential profits for the buyer. The example of the transaction which failed as a result of excessively optimistic expectations and inaccuracy in due diligence analysis was the acquisition of Siemens Mobile by BenQ in June 2005. Managers of BenQ wanted to strengthen the market position of the brand. This strategy, however, did not produce the desired effect, because the acquired company, Siemens Mobile, was in a very difficult financial situation. The transaction proved unsuccessful and the new company BenQ-Siemens announced the bankruptcy of its factories in Europe and changes in company strategy.
The next factor that is crucial for the success of mergers and acquisitions is the legal system in different countries, especially in the field of antimonopolistic legislation. Moreover, particularly in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, the state is often a co-owner of the company and has influence on both changes within the company and the changes connected with planned mergers and acquisitions.
According to J. C. Hooke the risk in mergers and acquisitions processes can be divided into three basic groups: operating risk, financial risk and overpaying risk (Hooke, 1997). Operating risk concerns the fact that the new company may not generate the expected results, which will be responsible for low advantages of scale. That can be connected with unsuccessful restructuring, entering new areas of business activity or job resignations on the part of the highly qualified managers of the acquired company. The risk is smaller when the acquiring company broadens its product range or increases the market share only. An example of low operating risk was the
《金融风险管理案例分析》 ——华谊兄弟 姓名：周冰倩 学院：行知学院商学分院 专业：金融学
学号：12856218 金融风险管理案例分析之华谊兄弟 前言： 在21世纪初的中国娱乐业市场，涌现出一批商业巨头，而华谊公司正是个中翘楚。从一家小型的广告公司，到如今庞大的商业帝国，华谊走过了一条不可思议的崛起之路。当然，时势造英雄，这不仅仅归功于王中军王中磊两位创始人的商业才能，也要归功于繁荣的中国市场。 华谊概况： 华谊兄弟传媒集团是中国大陆一家知名综合性民营娱乐集团，于1994年创立。1998年正式进入电影行业，因投资冯小刚的贺岁片而声名鹊起，随后全面进入传媒产业，投资及运营电影、电视剧、艺人经纪、唱片、娱乐营销等领域，在这些领域都取得了不错的成绩。时至今日，华谊兄弟传媒集团已经发展成为一个涵盖广告、影视、音乐、发行、艺术设计、建筑、汽车梢售、文化经纪、投资等的大型民营企业集团，并于2009年10月30日创业板正式上市。 一．信用风险： 信用风险又称违约风险，是指借款人、证券发行人或交易对方因种种原因，不愿或无力履行合同条件而构成违约，致使银行、投资者或交易对方遭受损失的可能性。 我认为可能会导致出现信用风险的原因有两个：
（1）经济运行的周期性。 （2）是对于公司经营有影响的特殊事件的发生。 宏观经济与政策环境： 2013年起，全球经济逐渐复苏，中国经济保持稳定的增长态势，经济运行总体平稳。2014年将是中国全面深化改革的重要一年，中国经济的主要特征是由高速增长向中高速增长转换。伴随着这种增速转换，中国经济的结构性调整特征十分明显，服务业发展动能逐渐增强。国内外良好的经济环境和国内深化改革的政策目标都将刺激中国服务业，第三产业的发展。 行业态势： 优势： 1.中国电影产业规模快速增长，为大型电影企业提供了发展机会。而且娱乐影视这整个行业发展快，对优质作品需求大，有利于公司发挥自身优势满足市场需求，保持行业领先地位。 2.华谊拥有出色的制作、宣传与发行能力，在国产大片市场处于优势地位；电视剧制作实力强产量高；艺人经纪业务拥有艺人数量超过百人。公司独创的经营管理模式，有助于降低风险保证收益。 3.公司以工作室独立运营进行作品创作等经营管理模式，有助于公司降低经营风险，取得最大收益。公司产业完整，影视资源丰富，电影、电视剧和艺人经纪三大业务板块有效整合，协同发展，在产业链完整性和影视资源丰富性方面有较为突出的优势。 劣势： 1.虽然我国电影产量已初具规模，但其中具备较高商业价值的影片数量仍然较少，高质量影片供应量的增加将直接推动电影票房收入的增长。 2.影片产量和放映数量均在增长，但银幕数量以及高质量影片的供应不足限制了整个行业的发展速度。规模大，产业链完整，运作高效的电影企业将在发展中获胜。 综上所述，尽管存在着一些不利因素，但总体来看，电视剧市场以及国内外的经济环境外部因素都是有利于华谊公司的发展的。因此，外部环境对该公司造成的信用风险的压力较小。 华谊重大事件年表： 1994年，华谊兄弟广告公司创立 1997年，年销售额达6亿，进入中国十大广告公司行列 2000年，并购金牌经纪人王京花的经纪公司，成立华谊兄弟时代经纪有限公司；太合控股2000万入股，成立华谊兄弟太合影视投资公司 2001年，成立华谊兄弟太合文化经纪有限公司 2002年，华谊取得西影股份发行公司超过40%的股份 2004年，出资3000万收购战国音乐，成立华谊兄弟音乐有限公司；TOM集团出资500万美元收购华谊27%的股权，华谊更名为华谊兄弟传媒集团 2005年，中国最大SP之一华友世纪对华谊兄弟音乐有限公司进行超过3500万战略性投资；华谊以3500万入股天音公司成立新的天音传媒有限公司；金牌经纪人王京花带领一些艺人跳槽橙天娱乐
财务风险管理 尽管近年来金融风险大大增加，但风险和风险管理不是当代的主要问题。全球市场越来越多的问题是，风险可能来自几千英里以外的与这些事件无关的国外市场。意味着需要的信息可以在瞬间得到，而其后的市场反应，很快就发生了。经济气候和市场可能会快速影响外汇汇率变化、利率及大宗商品价格，交易对手会迅速成为一个问题。因此，重要的一点是要确保金融风险是可以被识别并且管理得当的。准备是风险管理工作的一个关键组成部分。 什么是风险？ 风险给机会提供了基础。风险和暴露的条款让它们在含义上有了细微的差别。风险是指有损失的可能性，而暴露是可能的损失，尽管他们通常可以互换。风险起因是由于暴露。金融市场的暴露影响大多数机构，包括直接或间接的影响。当一个组织的金融市场暴露，有损失的可能性，但也是一个获利或利润的机会。金融市场的暴露可以提供战略性或竞争性的利益。 风险损失的可能性事件来自如市场价格的变化。事件发生的可能性很小，但这可能导致损失率很高，特别麻烦，因为他们往往比预想的要严重得多。换句话说，可能就是变异的风险回报。由于它并不总是可能的，或者能满意地把风险消除，在决定如何管理它中了解它是很重要的一步。识别暴露和风险形式的基础需要相应的财务风险管理策略。 财务风险是如何产生的呢？ 无数金融性质的交易包括销售和采购，投资和贷款，以及其他各种业务活动，产生了财务风险。它可以出现在合法的交易中，新项目中，兼并和收购中，债务融资中，能源部分的成本中，或通过管理的活动，利益相关者，竞争者，外国政府，或天气出现。当金融的价格变化很大，它可以增加成本，降低财政收入，或影响其他有不利影响的盈利能力的组织。金融波动可能使人们难以规划和预算商品和服务的价格，并分配资金。 有三种金融风险的主要来源： 1、金融风险起因于组织所暴露出来的市场价格的变化，如利率、汇率、和大宗商品价格。 2、引起金融风险的行为有与其他组织的交易如供应商、客户，和对方在金融衍生产品中的交易。 3、由于内部行动或失败的组织，特别是人、过程和系统所造成的金融风险。 什么是财务风险管理？ 财务风险管理是用来处理金融市场中不确定的事情的。它涉及到一个组织所面临的评估和组织的发展战略、内部管理的优先事项和当政策一致时的财务风险。企业积极应对金融风险可以使企业成为一个具有竞争优势的组织。它还确保管理，业务人员，利益相关者，董事会董事在对风险的关键问题达成协议。金融风险管理组织就必须作出那些不被接受的有关风险的决定。那些被动不采取行动的战略是在默认情况下接受所有的风险，组织使用各种策略和产品来管理金融风险。重要的是要了解这些产品和战略方面，通过工作来减少该组织内的风险承受能力和目标范围内的风险。 风险管理的策略往往涉及衍生工具。在金融机构和有组织的交易所，衍生物广泛地进行
企业财务风险及应对探讨文献综述 重庆工商大学会计专业200X级X班XX 指导老师XXX 目录 摘要 ............................................................................................................................... 错误!未定义书签。 一、财务风险基础理论研究在理论界，财务风险已经成为现在财务理论的核心内容，得到了学者的广泛关注和重视。财务风险与企业资金的筹措、运用、管理以及安全密切相关，它是从价值方面反映企业在理财活动里边以及处理财务关系中所遇到的风险。.......................... 错误!未定义书签。 1、财务风险的概念研究........................................................................................ 错误!未定义书签。James C. Van Horn, John M. Wachowicz Jr(2001)在《Fundamental of Financial Management》里面更宽泛地说明了财务风险包括可能丧失偿债能力的风险，以及由于使用财务杠杆而导致的每股收益变动。 ......................................................................................................................................... 错误!未定义书签。 2、财务风险的类型研究........................................................................................ 错误!未定义书签。 二、财务风险产生因素研究.......................................................................................... 错误!未定义书签。 三、财务风险管理策略研究.......................................................................................... 错误!未定义书签。参考文献 ......................................................................................................................... 错误!未定义书签。
A)关于商业银行信用风险管理的文献综述 摘要：随着银行业自身的快速发展以及业务量的增加，信用风险问题在银行的经营过程中逐渐暴漏出来，这就在一定程度上要求银行业对信用风险进行管理以降低其发生的可能性。当前，国内外学者对信用风险管理的研究越来越多，使得银行业可以根据自身的实际情况选择相应的风险管理方法和工具。本文主要从银行信用风险的定义、银行内部评级体系和银行信用风险量化几个方面对当前的信用风险管理研究进行了文献综述，最后对国内外信用风险管理的相关文献做出了总结。 关键词：商业银行，信用风险，风险管理，文献综述 一、关于银行信用风险定义的研究 1.风险的定义 风险（Risk）最早起源于拉丁美洲人的日常生活用语“Resum”，原意是“因航海或海上活动，其可能伴随而来的各种无法预测的危险或风险”。而《辞海》中将风险定义为“人们在生产建设和日常生活中遭遇能导致人身伤亡、财产受损及其他经济损失的自然灾害、意外事故和其他不测事件的可能性”。在我国的《中国大百科全书（经济学）》中，提出“风险通常是指由于当事者主观上不能控制的一些因素的影响，使得实际结果与当事者的事先估计有较大的背离而带来的经济损失”。 2.银行信用风险的定义 亨利〃范〃格罗（2005）将信用风险定义为债务人或金融工具的发行者不能根据信贷协定的约定条款支付利息或本金的可能性，是银行业固有的风险。闰晓莉、徐建中（2007）认为信用风险狭义上一般是指借款人到期不能或不愿履行还本付息协议，致使银行金融机构遭受损失的可能性，即它实际上是一种违约风险。广义上是指由于各种不确定因素对银行信用的影响，使银行金融机构经营的实际收益结果与预期目标发生背离，从而导致银行金融机构在经营活动中遭受损失或获取额外收益的一种可能性。 二、关于银行内部评级体系的研究 1.银行进行内部评级必要性的研究
目录 1.雷曼兄弟简介 (1) 2.雷曼兄弟破产过程 (1) 3.雷曼兄弟破产原因分析 (3) 3.1 自身原因 (3) 3.2 外部原因 (6) 4.应对措施及建议 (8)
1.雷曼兄弟简介 雷曼兄弟控股公司是美国第四大投资银行。作为一家全球性的投资银行，雷曼兄弟公司具有158年的历史。其雄厚的财务实力，以及“全球最具实力股票债券承销交易商”的名号可以追述到一个世纪前。 雷曼公司的业务能力一直受到众多世界知名公司的广泛认可。它不仅担任这些跨国公司和政府的重要财务顾问，同时拥有多名业界公认的国际最佳分析师。由此，它在很多业务领域都居于全球领先地位，包括股票、固定收益、交易和研究、投资银行业务、私人银行业务、资产管理以及风险投资。这一切都有助于雷曼兄弟稳固其在业务领域的领导地位。《商业周刊》评选雷曼兄弟公司为2000年最佳投资银行，《国际融资评论》授予其2002年度最佳投资银行称号，其整体调研实力也高居《机构投资者》排名榜榜首。 这样一家信誉名声都响彻业界的全球性多元化投资银行，于北京时间2008年9月15日，在次级抵押贷款市场危机加剧的形势下，丢盔弃甲。根据美国破产法，美国第四大投资银行雷曼兄弟控股公司向美国联邦破产法庭递交破产保护申请。以资产衡量，这是美国金融业最大的一宗公司破产案。 2.雷曼兄弟破产过程 表1罗列了自2007年夏天美国的次贷危机爆发以来，金融市场上所发生的一些重大事件和雷曼兄弟是如何一步步走向破产的。 表1 雷曼兄弟破产过程
3.1自身原因 1. 进入不熟悉的业务，且发展太快，业务过于集中。 作为一家顶级的投资银行，雷曼兄弟在很长一段时间内注重于传统的投资银行业务（证券发行承销，兼并收购顾问等）。 进入20世纪90年代后，随着固定收益产品、金融衍生品的流行和交易的飞速发展，雷曼兄弟也大力拓展了这些领域的业务，并取得了巨大的成功，被称为华尔街上的“债券之王”。 在2000年后房地产和信贷这些非传统的业务蓬勃发展之后，雷曼兄弟和其它华尔街上的银行一样，开始涉足此类业务。这本无可厚非，但雷曼的扩张速度太快（美林、贝尔斯登、摩根士丹利等也存在相同的问题）。雷曼兄弟破产前的几年一直是住宅抵押债券和商业地产债券的顶级承销商和账簿管理人。即使是在房地产市场下滑的2007年，雷曼兄弟的商业地产债券业务仍然增长了约13%。这样一来，雷曼兄弟面临的系统性风险非常大。在市场情况好的年份，整个市场都在向上，市场流动性泛滥，投资者被乐观情绪所蒙蔽，巨大的系统性风险给雷曼带来了巨大的收益；可是当市场崩溃的时候，如此大的系统风险必然带来巨大的负面影响。 2. 财务结构不合理，自身资本太少，杠杆率太高且过度依赖短期融资。 以雷曼为代表的投资银行与花旗、摩根大通、美洲银行等综合性银行不同，它们的自有资本太少，资本充足率太低。为了筹集资金来扩大业务，它们只好依赖债券市场和银行间拆借市场，在债券市场发债来满足中长期资金的需求，在银
中英文资料外文翻译 财务风险重要性分析 译文： 摘要：本文探讨了美国大型非金融企业从1964年至2008年股票价格风险的决定小性因素。我们通过相关结构以及简化模型，研究诸如债务总额，债务期限，现金持有量，及股利政策等公司财务特征，我们发现，股票价格风险主要通过经营和资产特点，如企业年龄，规模，有形资产，经营性现金流及其波动的水平来体现。与此相反，隐含的财务风险普遍偏低，且比产权比率稳定。在过去30年，我们对财务风险采取的措施有所减少，反而对股票波动（如独特性风险）采取的措施逐渐增加。因此，股票价格风险的记载趋势比公司的资产风险趋势更具代表性。综合二者，结果表明，典型的美国公司谨慎管理的财政政策大大降低了财务风险。因此，现在看来微不足道的剩余财务风险相对底层的非金融公司为一典型的经济风险。 关键词：资本结构；财务风险；风险管理；企业融资 1 绪论 2008年的金融危机对金融杠杆的作用产生重大影响。毫无疑问，向金融机构的巨额举债和内部融资均有风险。事实上，有证据表明，全球主要银行精心策划的杠杆（如通过抵押贷款和担保债务）和所谓的“影子银行系统”可能是最近的经济和金融混乱的根本原因。财务杠杆在非金融企业的作用不太明显。迄今为止，尽管资本市场已困在危机中，美国非金融部门的问题相比金融业的困境来说显得微不足道。例如，非金融企业破产机遇仅限于自20世纪30年代大萧条以来的最大经济衰退。事实上，非金融公司申请破产的事件大都发生在美国各行业（如汽车制造业，报纸，房地产）所面临的基本经济压力即金融危机之前。这令人惊讶的事实引出了一个问题“非金融公司的财务风险是如何重要？”。这个问题的核心是关于公司的总风险以及公司风险组成部分的各决定因素的不确定性。 最近在资产定价和企业融资再度引发的两个学术研究中分析了股票价格风险利
龙源期刊网 https://www.doczj.com/doc/1410250121.html, 关于商业银行信用风险的文献综述 作者：余峰 来源：《大经贸》2016年第05期 【摘要】随着我国商业银行的快速发展，信用风险问题在商业银行的经营过程中日益突出。本文主要从银行信用风险的定义、传统的信用风险管理和现代银行信用风险量化研究几个方面对当前的信用风险管理研究进行了文献综述，最后对国内外信用风险管理的相关文献做出了总结。 【关键词】商业银行信用风险文献综述 一、银行信用风险的定义 信用风险（CreditRisk）又称违约风险，是指交易对手未能履行约定契约中的义务而造成经济损失的风险，即受信人不能履行还本付息的责任而使授信人的预期收益与实际收益发生偏离的可能性。很多学者分别从广义和狭义的角度来定义信用风险。他们认为，狭义的信用风险一般是指信贷风险，而广义的则是指因债务人的违约而引发的一系列风险，其中包括在资产业务中因债务人没有及时偿还所借贷款而导致资产质量变换，负债业务中客户大规模提前支取导致挤兑从而加剧支付的难度等。 根据巴塞尔新资本协议，金融风险分为市场风险、信用风险、操作风险三大类。麦肯锡通过研究发现，商业银行的风险60%来自信用风险，其余40%来自市场风险和操作风险；前银 监会主席刘明康也认为，信用风险是在中国经济体制改革的形势下，商业银行所面临的最主要也是最大的风险之一。 二、传统的商业银行信用风险管理方法 商业银行传统的信用风险管理方法有信贷决策的“6C”模型和信用评分模型等。“6C”模型是指由有关专家根据借款人的品德（character）、能力（capacity）、资本（capital）、抵押品（collateral）、经营环境（condition）、事业的连续性（continuity）等六个因素评定其信用程度和综合还款能力，决定是否最终发放贷款。运用这种方法的缺点是，专家用在“6C”上的权重有可能以借款人的不同而变化，专家难以确定共同要遵循的标准，造成评估的主观性、随意性和不一致性。 而信用评分模型主要是通过对企业财务指标进行加权计算，对借款企业实施信用评分，并将总分与临界值进行比较，低于该值的企业被归入不发放贷款的企业行列。信用评分模型中最具代表性的是爱德华·阿尔特曼（Altman）1968年对美国破产和非破产生产企业进行观察，采用了22个财务比率经过数理统计筛选建立的著名的5变量Z-score模型和在此基础上改进的“Zeta”判别分析模型。将Z值的大小同衡量标准相比，可以区分破产公司和非破产公司。
金融风险管理案例集 南京审计学院金融学院 2009年9月2日
金融风险管理案例集 目录 案例一：法国兴业银行巨亏 案例二：雷曼兄弟破产 案例三：英国诺森罗克银行挤兑事件 案例四：“中航油”事件 案例五：中信泰富炒汇巨亏事件 案例六：美国通用汽车公司破产 案例七：越南金融危机 案例八：深发展15亿元贷款无法收回 案例九：AIG 危机 案例十：中国金属旗下钢铁公司破产 案例十一：俄罗斯金融危机 案例十二：冰岛的“国家破产”
案例一：法国兴业银行巨亏 一、案情 2008年1月18日,法国兴业银行收到了一封来自另一家大银行的电子邮件,要求确认此前约定的一笔交易,但法国兴业银行和这家银行根本没有交易往来。因此,兴业银行进行了一次内部查清,结果发现,这是一笔虚假交易。伪造邮件的是兴业银行交易员凯维埃尔。更深入地调查显示,法国兴业银行因凯维埃尔的行为损失了49亿欧元,约合71亿美元。 凯维埃尔从事的是什么业务,导致如此巨额损失?欧洲股指期货交易,一种衍生金融工具产品。早在2005年6月,他利用自己高超的电脑技术,绕过兴业银行的五道安全限制,开始了违规的欧洲股指期货交易,“我在安联保险上建仓,赌股市会下跌。不久伦敦地铁发生爆炸,股市真的大跌。我就像中了头彩……盈利50万欧元。”2007年,凯维埃尔再赌市场下跌,因此大量做空,他又赌赢了,到2007年12月31日,他的账面盈余达到了14亿欧元,而当年兴行银行的总盈利不过是55亿欧元。从2008年开始,凯维埃尔认为欧洲股指上涨,于是开始买涨。然后,欧洲乃至全球股市都在暴跌,凯维埃尔的巨额盈利转眼变成了巨大损失。 二、原因 1.风险巨大,破坏性强。由于衍生金融工具牵涉的金额巨大,一旦出现亏损就将引起较大的震动。巴林银行因衍生工具投机导致9.27亿英镑的亏损,最终导致拥有233年历史、总投资59亿英镑的老牌银行破产。法国兴业银行事件中,损失达到71亿美元,成为历史上最大规模的金融案件,震惊了世界。 2.暴发突然,难以预料。因违规进行衍生金融工具交易而受损、倒闭的投资机构,其资产似乎在一夜间就化为乌有,暴发的突然性往往出乎人们的预料。巴林银行在1994年底税前利润仍为1.5亿美元,而仅仅不到3个月后,它就因衍生工具上巨额损失而破产。中航油(新加坡)公司在破产的6个月前,其CEO还公开宣称公司运行良好,风险极低,在申请破产的前1个月前,还被新加坡证券委员会授予“最具透明度的企业”。 3.原因复杂,不易监管。衍生金融工具风险的产生既有金融自由化、金融市场全球化等宏观因素,也有管理层疏于监督、金融企业内部控制不充分等微观因素,形成原因比较复杂,即使是非常严格的监管制度,也不能完全避免风险。像法兴银行这个创建于拿破仑时代的银行,内部风险控制不可谓不严,但凯维埃尔还是获得了非法使用巨额资金的权限,违规操作近一年才被发现。这警示我们,再严密的规章制度,再安全的电脑软件,都可能存在漏洞。对银行系统的风险控制,绝不可掉以轻心,特别是市场繁荣之际,应警惕因盈利而放松正常监管。
外文文献翻译 Commercial Bank Risk Management : An Analysis of the Process
外文文献： Commercial Bank Risk Management: An Analysis of the Process Abstract Throughout the past year, on-site visits to financial service firms were conducted to review and evaluate their financial risk management systems. The commercial banking analysis covered a number of North American super-regionals and quasi±money-center institutions as well as several firms outside the U.S. The information obtained covered both the philosophy and practice of financial risk management. This article outlines the results of this investigation. It reports the state of risk management techniques in the industry. It reports the standard of practice and evaluates how and why it is conducted in the particular way chosen. In addition, critiques are offered where appropriate. We discuss the problems which the industry finds most difficult to address, shortcomings of the current methodology used to analyze risk, and the elements that are missing in the current procedures of risk management. 1. Introduction The past decade has seen dramatic losses in the banking industry. Firms that had been performing well suddenly announced large losses due to credit exposures that turned sour, interest rate positions taken, or derivative exposures that may or may not have been assumed to hedge balance sheet risk. In response to this, commercial banks have almost universally embarked upon an upgrading of their risk management and control systems. Coincidental to this activity, and in part because of our recognition of the industry's vulnerability to financial risk, the Wharton Financial Institutions Center, with the support of the Sloan Foundation, has been involved in an analysis of financial risk management processes in the financial sector. Through the past academic year, on-site visits were conducted to review and evaluate the risk management systems and the process of risk evaluation that is in place. In the banking sector, system evaluation was conducted covering many of North America's
本科毕业论文（设计） 外文翻译 Financial Risk Management Although financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneously, which means that change, and subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly. The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. Counterparties can rapidly become problematic. As a result, it is important to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of risk management. What Is Risk? Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as a result of exposure. Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly or indirectly. When an organization has financial market exposure, there is a possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit. Financial market exposure may provide strategic or competitive benefits. Risk is the likelihood of losses resulting from events such as changes in market prices. Events with a low probability of occurring, but that may result in a high loss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated. Put another way, risk is the probable variability of returns. Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate risk, understanding it is an important step in determining how to manage it.
金融银行信用风险管理外文翻译文献 (文档含中英文对照即英文原文和中文翻译) 原文: Managing Credit Risks with Knowledge Management for Financial Banks Pan Jin Department of Economics Economics and Management School of Wuhan University Wuhan,Hubei Province,430072,China Abstract-Nowadays,financial banks are operating in a knowledge society and there are more and more credit risks breaking out in banks.So,this paper first discusses the implications of knowledge and knowledge management, and then analyzes credit risks of financial banks
with knowledge management. Finally, the paper studies ways for banks to manage credit risks with knowledge management. With the application of knowledge management in financial banks, customers will acquire better service and banks will acquire more rewards. Index Terms–knowledge management; credit risk; risk management; incentive mechanism; financial banks I.INTRODUCTION Nowadays,banks are operating in a“knowledge society”.So, what is knowledge? Davenport(1996)[1]thinks knowledge is professional intellect, such as know-what, know-how, know-why, and self-motivated creativity, or experience, concepts, values, beliefs and ways of working that can be shared and communicated. The awareness of the importance of knowledge results in the critical issue of “knowledge management”. So, what is knowledge management? According to Malhothra(2001)[2], knowledge management(KM)caters to the critical issues of organizational adaptation, survival and competence in face of increasingly discontinuous environmental change. Essentially it embodies organizational processes that seek synergistic combination of data and information processing capacity of information technologies and the creative and innovative capacity of human beings. Through the processes of creating,sustaining, applying, sharing and renewing knowledge, we can enhance organizational performance and create value. Many dissertations have studied knowledge managementapplications in some special fields. Aybübe Aurum(2004)[3] analyzes knowledge management in software engineering and D.J.Harvey＆R.Holdsworth(2005)[4]study knowledge management in the aerospace industry. Li Yang(2007)[5] studies knowledge management in information-based education and Jayasundara＆Chaminda Chiran(2008)[6] review the prevailing literature on knowledge management in banking industries. Liang ping and Wu Kebao(2010)[7]study the incentive mechanism of knowledge management in Banking. There are also many papers about risks analysis and risks management. Before the 1980s, the dominant mathematical theory of risks analysis was to describe a pair of random vectors.But,the simplification assumptions and methods used by classical competing risks
Financial Risk Management Although financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneously, which means that change, and subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly. The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. Counterparties can rapidly become problematic. As a result, it is important to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of risk management. What Is Risk? Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as a result of exposure. Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly or indirectly. When an organization has financial market exposure, there is a possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit. Financial market exposure may provide strategic or competitive benefits. Risk is the likelihood of losses resulting from events such as changes in market prices. Events with a low probability of occurring, but that may result in a high loss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated. Put another way, risk is the probable variability of returns. Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate risk,
外文翻译 原文 Credit Risk and Credit Derivatives in Banking Material Source: http://www.wiwi.uni-augsburg.de/vwl/institut/paper/228.pdf Author：Udo Broll Using the industrial economics approach to the microeconomics of banking we analyze a large bank under credit risk. Our aim is to study how a risky loan portfolio a?ects optimal bank behavior in the loan and deposit markets, when credit derivatives to hedge credit risk are available. We examine hedging without and with basis risk. In the absence of basis risk the usual separation result is con?rmed. In case of basis risk, however, we ?nd a weaker notion of separation. 1 Introduction Credit risk is one of the oldest and most important forms of risk faced by banks as ?nancial intermediaries. The risk of borrower default —on interest and/or principal —carries the potential of wiping out enough of a bank’s capital to force it into bankruptcy. Managing this kind of risk through selecting and monitoring borrowers and through creating a diversi?ed loan portfolio has always been one of the predominant challenges in running a bank. Since the 1980s a number of new risk sharing markets and ?nancial instruments have become available which make credit risk more manageable (see Neal, and Bank for International Settlements, 2001). Banks can pool assets with credit risk and sell parts of the pool. This asset securitization or creation of asset backed securities has seen considerable growth in areas such as home mortgages or automobile loans, where underlying loan contracts and payment schedules are fairly standardized and risk characteristics are similar. Loan sales play a role, e.g., in takeover ?nancing, where a bank originates a loan and sells it in sm aller shares to other banks. More recently, credit derivatives such as credit swaps, credit options, and credit-linked notes have gained importance as instruments to manage risk in situations, where the diversity of loan types and credit risks makes it di?cult to securitize loans or sell them individually. In the sequel we will use the term credit derivatives both for securities