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中小银行竞争力分析中英文对照外文翻译文献

中小银行竞争力分析中英文对照外文翻译文献
中小银行竞争力分析中英文对照外文翻译文献

中小银行竞争力分析中英文对照外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)

What drives the persistent competitiveness of small banks?

Abstract:Several trends in the financial industry could have weakened the competitiveness of small banks in recent years including consolidation and improved financial strength of large banks, competition from nonbank financial firms, and a decline in the real value of deposit insurance. Despite those challenges, small banks have grown more rapidly than larger banks over the period from 1985 to 2001, and their profitability has been sustained at high levels. However, small banks have needed to increase the interest rates offered on deposit accounts in order to attract progressively more deposit funding. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence that this increased interest cost primarily reflects the higher rate of return that small banks were able to earn on their assets. Moreover, we show with an arbitrage model that the decline in the real value of deposit insurance has only a small effect on deposit rates as long as bank failure rates are in the low range of recent years.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s (FDIC) proposal for the modernization of

deposit insurance has recently been the focus of considerable attention (FDIC 2000). As part of its proposal, the FDIC would raise the current $100,000 ceiling on coverage in order to account for the erosion of its real value by inflation since it was set in 1980 (Chart 1). The decline in the real value of deposit insurance would tend to raise the cost of funding assets with deposits, and thus could adversely affect banks that tend to rely heavily on deposits. Large banks, which fund themselves relatively more in the uninsured wholesale markets, could be less affected than small banks.

The decline in the real value of deposit insurance, however, is only one of several trends in the financial industry that could have weakened the competitiveness of small banks in recent years. Among these other developments have been the return to health of large banks, numerous mergers that have increased the size and scope of large banks, and the continued increase in competition from mutual funds and other nonbank financial companies.

Mergers and acquisitions have reduced the number of banks in the United States from more than 14,000 in 1985 to about 8,300 at the end of 2000, and during this time the share of domestic banking assets held by the largest 100 banks rose from about half to almost three-fourths (Chart2). Studies of consolidation in the banking industry and of its impact on small bank competitiveness have reached differing conclusions. However, consolidation interacts with the decline in the real value of deposit insurance to create another potentially adverse impact on the competitiveness of small banks. The creation of “mega-banks” increases the possibility that depositors would consider these larger banks to be “too big to fail” (TBTF), which would implicitly confer a greater level of deposit insurance upon large bank customers than those of small banks. Smaller banks contend that an increase in the nominal value of deposit insurance is needed to help offset this perception of a TBTF policy (Independent Community Bankers Association [2000]).

The evolution of large, complex banking organizations has led federal bank regulators to warn that these institutions create the potential for unusually large systemic risks to the national and international economies should they fail (Greenspan [1999]). However, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement A ct of 1991 (FDICIA) circumscribed regulators’ ability to invoke TBTF. It required that the FDIC pursue the resolution method that poses the least cost to its insurance fund when dealing with a failed bank, and stipulated that exceptions to the “leastcost” method must garner the approval of super majorities of both the Federal Reserve and FDIC

boards plus that of the Secretary of the Treasury in consultation with the President of the United States. Angbazo and Saunders [1997] found the cost of funds to large banks increased after FDICIA was implemented, suggesting that bank creditors believed that FDICIA reduced the likelihood of a large bank benefiting from a TBTF policy. Moreover, bank regulatory agencies maintain that no bank is too large for shareholders and nondeposit liability holders to face complete loss, and for uninsured depositors to be subject to less than 100 percent reimbursement, should the decline in bank asset values be large enough (Greenspan [2001]).

In addition to the consolidation of the banking system, the continued growth of nonbank financial institutions may have weakened the competitive situation of small relative to large banks in recent years (D'Arista and Schlesinger [1993]). Although savings and loan associations, credit unions, mutual funds and finance companies compete with banks of all sizes, they likely pose a greater competitive challenge to smaller banks. In addition to being more dependent on deposit funding than the larger banks, small banks also tend to be more concentrated than large banks in the types of loans extended by finance companies (Dynan, Johnson, and Slowinski [2002]). Over the period studied, however, an outright decline in thrift industry assets offset the added competition from other types of nonbank financial companies, particularly money market mutual funds.

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the competitive position of small banks likely was boosted as a result of the more severe deterioration in asset quality at large banks, and the wider gap at large banks between actual capital levels and those being demanded by markets and the new Basle accord (Chart 3). However, the subsequent economic recovery and brisk expansion of the second half of the 1990s caused delinquency rates to drop dramatically, particularly at large banks. At the same time, the gap between the leverage ratios small banks and large banks also narrowed noticeably, as large banks boosted their capital following the implementation of the Basle Accords in 1991.

Despite the aforementioned headwinds affecting small banks’ competitiveness, Bassett and Brady [2001] found that small banks have grown more rapidly than larger banks over the period from 1985 to 2000. Moreover, they showed that small banks have largely maintained or even increased their levels of profitability throughout much of the period studied, despite paying increasingly large premiums on their deposits relative to large banks in order to fund their more

rapid asset expansion. The purpose of this study is to extend this research by more formally examining the differential impact of the influences mentioned above on the competitive performance of small banks over the period from the mid-1980s to 2001.

First, we employ an arbitrage model to examine the relationship between relative average interest rates on deposits at small and large banks, the level of deposit insurance, bank failure rates, and perceptions about TBTF. The model demonstrates that the sensitivity of relative deposit rates to the level of deposit insurance or views about the importance of TBTF is quite low when bank failure rates are low, as they have been in recent years. We then present econometric evidence suggesting that the rising relative cost of deposits at small banks vis-à-vis large banks over the past decade larg ely reflects small banks’ need to attract funding to sustain their aggressive and profitable asset expansion. The share of uninsured deposits, which has risen as the real value of deposit insurance has declined, and a marked improvement in the balance sheet health of large banks during the 1990s played somewhat smaller roles in boosting deposit rates at small banks.

The next section describes the data used in the article and identifies some key balance sheet differences between large and small banks. Section III illustrates that small banks have been able to grow faster than large banks by offering better deposit rates and that the premium they pay has been rising over time. Section IV presents an arbitrage model of deposit pricing at large and small banks that incorporates deposit insurance and “T oo Big To Fail” effects. Section V presents regression estimates from a reduced form model of deposit rate determination at large and small banks. Conclusions are presented in section VI.

II. Data and Summary Statistics

Except where otherwise indicated, data in this paper are from the quarterly Reports of Condition and Income (Call Reports) for the domestic offices of insured domestically chartered commercial banks and nondeposit trust companies (hereafter, banks). In this article, large banks are those ranked 1 through 100 based on assets at the start of each quarter. Small banks are those ranked outside of the largest 1,000. At the start of the fourth quarter of 2000, large banks had assets of at least $6.94 billion, while all small banks had assets of less than $331 million.

A. Key balance sheet differences between small and large banks.

Small banks rely considerably more on deposits than do large banks. In particular, small time

deposits (those issued in amounts of less than $100,000) funded almost 30 percent of loans and other assets at small banks in 2000, while at large banks the share was 10 percent (Table 1). The share of small banks' assets funded with large time deposits, 13 percent, also exceeds that at large banks, 8 percent. Other interest-bearing deposits, which consist of savings and transactions accounts, also were somewhat more important funding vehicles at small banks, while noninterest-bearing deposits funded comparable shares of small and large banks' assets in 2000.

Large banks funded about one-third of their assets with "other" nondeposit liabilities in 2000,whereas at small banks the share was just 3 percent. Small banks availed themselves somewhat more of FHLB advances, although these represent a fairly small share of liabilities at both groups of banks. Equity also funded a larger share of assets at small than at large banks, 10.3 percent and 8 percent respectively.

Reliance on deposits changed little between 1987 and 1992, but both bank groups shifted toward nondeposit liabilities and capital as sources of funding during the 1990s. Between 1992 and 2000, deposits as a share of assets fell about 4 percentage points at small banks and 10 percentage points at large banks. For both bank groups, "other interest-bearing deposits" was the deposit category that fell most in the 1990s, although at large banks “non-interest-bearing deposits” declined almost as much. Small time deposits (which are fully insured) declined by similar amounts at both bank groups, a drop probably reflecting the increased popularity of alternative household investment vehicles such as mutual funds. However, the share of assets funded by large time deposits actually increased at both bank groups, with a larger increase posted at small banks.

At small banks, the type and average size of large deposit accounts (all those of at least $100,000) are notably different from those at large banks (table 1, memo). At large banks, only about 30 percent of such balances were held as large time deposits in 2000; the remaining 70 percent were in transaction and savings accounts. At small banks, large balances are split about evenly between large time and other deposits. The average size of large deposits at large banks in 2000 was $425,000, and at small banks it was $229,000; however, over the 1990s the average size declined at large banks and rose at about the rate of inflation at small banks.

B. Growth patterns for large and small banks.

As noted, the mergers that have been the vehicle of consolidation typically have involved the

acquisition of smaller banks by much larger banks. This, of course, boosts measured growth of large banks and diminishes that of small banks. To account for this in examining the balance sheet growth and profitability of small vis-à-vis large banks, we merger-adjust data from the quarterly Reports of Condition and Income, filed by all federally insured commercial banks.

Balance sheet data adjusted for mergers show that small banks generally have grown faster than either medium-sized or large banks over the past fifteen years (chart 4, top panel). Indeed, in every year, the growth of assets has been significantly faster at small banks than at large banks. Of course, banks securitize and sell a significant portion of the consumer and real estate loans that they originate and thereby move them off their balance sheets. But data available since 1997 indicate that restoring securitized credit card loans to large banks' balance sheets would not narrow the difference in growth rates significantly. Of course, adding securitized assets to the balance sheet for purposes of comparison presumes that the securitizing bank still would have chosen to originate the loans even if the opportunity to securitize was not available.

In addition, an average of about 350 new, or "de novo," banks were formed each year during the 1997-2000 period, compared with about 150 per year during the preceding four years. Although de novo banks tend to grow rapidly, the growth rate of all small banks is not significantly affected if de novo banks are excluded from the calculation. Moreover, the accelerated pace of entry into a fast growing sector provides substantial evidence of the attractiveness of small banks to investors.

As suggested by the relative rates of merger-adjusted asset growth, the expansion of total deposits at small banks has also exceeded the growth rate at large banks in every year since 1985, after adjusting for mergers (chart 4, middle panel). Uninsured deposits also grew significantly faster at small banks than at large banks (chart 4, bottom panel). Furthermore, the growth rate of uninsured deposits at small banks has been high and steadily increasing during the second half of the past decade, whereas at larger banks the growth of these liabilities shows no trend. However, the growth of assets tended to exceed that of deposits, as the use of nondeposit liabilities grew for all bank size groups.

III. How Have Small Banks Expanded Deposits Faster Than Large Banks?

Chart 5 examines the connection between relative rates paid on deposits at small and large banks and relative deposit growth rates, for various definitions of deposits. The solid line in all four

panels is the difference, expressed in basis points, between the average interest rates paid for deposits by small and large banks. Similarly, the dotted line depicts the growth rate of deposits at small banks less the growth rate at large banks, expressed in percentage points.

Growth of total interest-bearing deposits at small banks consistently exceeded that at large banks between 1985 and 2000 by amounts that tended to reflect movements in the spread between deposit rates paid at small relative to large banks (Chart 5, upper left)。As the period began, small banks were outbidding large banks for deposits, but this relationship reversed in the late 1980s and into 1990, a shift that seemed to prompt a relative acceleration of growth of deposits at large banks. During the 1991-93 period, small banks raised their average rate paid on interest bearing deposits by about a full percentage point relative to rates at large banks, restoring the premium paid by them in the mid-1980s. Evidently as a result, the growth rate of deposits at small banks rose substantially compared with that at large banks during these years. However, even though the deposit rate spread favoring small banks remained elevated and, on balance, rose somewhat over the course of the 1990s, the amount by which deposit growth at small banks exceeded that at large banks trended down over most of the decade.

The remaining panels present the same relationship between relative deposit offering rates and relative deposit growth rates for deposits disaggregated into small time, large time, and other interest-bearing deposits. This greater detail reveals that the positive correlation between relative offering rates and relative deposit growth rates at small banks generally held up for small time deposits over the entire period examined, but tended to diminish during the latter 1990s in the large time and “other” deposit components. The difference between the behavior of small time and the remaining categories of interest-bearing deposits may reflect the fact that small time deposits are (by definition) fully insured while the other categories have large uninsured components.

The relative rise in deposit interest rates, however, did not significantly affect small banks’ profitability, as the rise was apparently offset by higher rates earned on assets at small banks. Net interest margins (NIM) at small banks have traditionally been substantially greater than at the largest 100 banks, and during most of the second part of the 1990s, the NIM at small banks held steady, while it edged down at large banks (Chart 6). In part, small banks maintained their NIM by increasing the share of their portfolios held as loans—which, on average, earn higher yields than securities—throughout the 1990s. Although the NIM at small banks began to narrow somewhat

more over the past three years and fell below its late 1980s level, that decline has been matched by a similar fall off at large banks.

Turning to broader measures of profitability, return on equity (ROE) at large banks has stabilized around an average of about 15 percent throughout the mid- to late-1990s. Small banks ROE has also been fairly stable during the 1990s, and is uniformly above the returns earned during the late-1980s. While ROE at large banks has been significantly greater than ROE at small banks since 1992, this is in large part due to the much greater levels of capital relative to assets held by small banks.

In terms of the return on assets (ROA), small banks have generally been more profitable than large banks (Chart 6, bottom right panel), an achievement that is especially impressive given the greater (and growing) earnings on off-balance-sheet activities at large banks. Indeed, the jump of large banks' ROA over that of small banks in 1999 is attributable to large gains in revenue from capital markets business and trading operations; such revenue is not a significant portion of income at small banks.

IV. Summary and Conclusions

Consolidation within the banking industry over the last decade and a half has increased the size and scope of large banks and produced some banks that are perhaps large enough to fuel depositors’ perceptions that they could be “too big to fail.” In conjunction with the decline in the real value of deposit insurance since 1980, the return to heath of large banks after the early 1990s, and the continued increase in the assets of nonbank financial companies, the competitive position of small banks would appear to have been seriously challenged.

Merger-adjusted Call Report data, however, indicate that small banks prospered throughout the 1990s. Small bank assets have grown at rates exceeding their large bank competitors and they have maintained historically high levels of profitability, even as the average cost of deposits at small banks relative to large banks has increased over the past decade. The results of this paper shed some light on why small banks have remained so competitive.

First, we developed an arbitrage model of deposit pricing with risk-averse investors who choose whether to deposit uninsured funds in a “Too Big T o Fail” institution or a s maller bank on the basis of deposit rate spreads. This model indicates that when the probability of failure for small banks is at the low levels that have prevailed since the early 1990s, then the subsidy provided by

deposit insurance and TBTF is tiny. Although the model suggests that these subsidies become large when the probability of failure reaches elevated levels, it is precisely at those times when deposit insurance creates the greatest degree of moral hazard. That is, it allows a troubled institution to continue to attract insured funding that is subsequently invested in risky assets with the hope that the profits earned on the new investments will return the troubled bank to health, but also creating a larger loss for the bank insurance fund if the bank does not recover.

Second, regression analysis suggests that the increased cost of deposits at small banks relative to large banks during the 1990s stemmed mostly from small banks’ need for deposits to fund their aggressive and apparently more profitable loan growth. Another reason deposit rates may have climbed at small banks relative to large is the improved health of the large bank sector, reflected in their much-improved capital ratios, during the 1990s. Competition from nonbank financial firms is also estimated to have a statistically significant impact on the deposit offering rates at small banks, although it is generally not estimated to affect the deposit rates at large banks. However, the decline in the assets of the thrift industry more than offset the increased assets of money market mutual funds. Thus, on balance, the reduced competition from these sources held down deposit rates at small banks over the period studied.

The growing share of uninsured deposits (which was used as a proxy variable for the decline in the real value of deposit insurance over the 1988 to 2000 period) also had a positive and statistically significant effect on the price of deposits at both large and small banks. Moreover, the regression analysis suggests that the increase in the share of uninsured deposits had a larger effect on small banks than on large banks, particularly for savings and interest-bearing transaction deposits. The arbitrage model suggests that these coefficient estimates could be influenced by the high rate of bank failures in the early 1990s; however, a statistical test of that hypothesis was inconclusive. This factor is estimated to account for roughly the same overall increase the deposit rate spread between small and large banks as the improved balance sheet health at large banks, and about half of the increase owing to the change in their average return on loans.

是什么推动中小银行的持久性竞争力?

彼利巴塞特和汤姆布雷迪[摘要]近年来,金融业在几个方面可能发展较薄弱,包括巩固和完善大型银行,非银行金融机构的竞争,小银行在财务实力方面的竞争力,其存款保险的实际价值下降。尽管有这些挑战,中小银行增长速度在1985年至2001年期间仍然超过了较大的银行,其利润率一直维持在高水平。然而,小银行需要增加存款账户的利息率,以逐步吸引更多的存款资金。在本文中,我们提供的经验证据表明,这种利息成本增加主要反映了小银行可以赚取较高的资产。此外,我们将呈现一个套利模型,存款保险的实际价值下降只会对存款利率产生很小的影响,因为在最近几年银行倒闭率在较低范围内。

简介

美国联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)的存款保险为现代化的建议,最近一直是关注的焦点(联邦存款保险公司2000年)。作为其建议的一部分,FDIC将提高对当前覆盖10万美元的上限,其真正的价值受通货膨胀的侵蚀,因为它是在1980年的设置(图1)。存款保险的实际价值下降,往往会提高资金的存款资产的成本,从而可能造成负面影响往往依赖银行存款严重。大型银行,其基金本身相对没有保险的批发市场,可以比小银行的影响较小。

在金融行业,存款保险的实际价值下降,削弱了一些小银行竞争力,成为近年来的趋势之一。在其他方面,有许多通过并购健康增长的大规模影响范围广的银行,从共同基金和其他非银行金融公司的竞争中获得不断增加的回报。

与1985年14000多个银行相比,2000年底的通过兼并和收购,银行数量已经减少到8300多个。在此期间,国内银行由最大的100家银行持有的资产的份额上升到近四分之三(图2)。综合研究银行业和其对小银行竞争力的影响已达到不同的结论。但是,巩固交互中的存款保险的实际价值下降,导致了另一个对小银行的竞争力可能造成的不良影响。对“超级银行“创造的可能性,增加存款的客户会考虑将这些大银行“太大而

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