THE METHODS OF INDUSTRY AND COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS

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一、单项选择（每小题1分，共10分）1．纳什均衡之所以稳定是因为（ ）。

A ．它们包含着占优策略B ．它们包含着常和博弈C ．它们发生于非合作博弈之中D ．一旦均衡策略被选定，没有局中人有动力单方面偏离纳什均衡【答案】D【解析】纳什均衡是一组满足给定对手的行为时各参与者所做的是它所能做的最好的策略或行为。

由于各参与者没有偏离它的纳什策略的激励，因此这种策略是稳定的。

2．假设六个工人的平均产量是15。

如果第七个工人的边际产量是18，则（ ）。

A ．边际产量上升了B ．边际产量下降了C ．平均产量上升了D ．平均产量下降了【答案】C【解析】由边际产量和平均产量的关系可知，只要边际产量大于平均产量，平均产量上升；只要边际产量小于平均产量，平均产量下降。

由于第七个工人的边际产量大于前六个人的平均产量，因此七个人的平均产量上升。

已知条件只知道前六个人的平均产量，而不知其边际产量，故边际产量的升降无法判断。

3．如果边际消费倾向MPC 为0.8，税收为定量税，则以下措施中使收入水平降低最多的是（ ）。

A ．增加税收100B ．增加税收100，同时设法使MPC 上升到0.85C ．减少政府购买100D ．减少转移支付50，同时设法使MPC 上升到0.9【答案】B【解析】由三部门乘数可知，在定量税下，政府购买乘数为11G k MPC =-，税收乘数为1T MPC k MPC -=-，转移支付乘数为1TR MPC k MPC=-。

A 项，只增加税收100，此时国民收入变化量为0.810010040010.8T Y k -∆=⨯=⨯=--；B 项，增加税收100，同时也设法使MPC 上升到0.85，此时国民收入0.85100100566.710.85T Y k -∆=⨯=⨯=--；C 项，减少政府购买100，国民收入110010050010.8G Y k ∆=⨯=-⨯=--；D 项，减少转移支付50，同时设法使MPC 上升到0.9，此时国民收入0.9505045010.9TR Y k ∆=-⨯=-⨯=--。

*CHAPTER 2(Core Chapter)COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGEANSWERS TO REVIEW QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS1. The mercantilists believed that the way for a nation to become rich and powerful was toexport more than it imported. The resulting export surplus would then be settled by an inflow of gold and silver and the more gold and silver a nation had, the richer and more powerful it was. Thus, the government had to do all in its power to stimulate th e nation’s exports and discourage and restrict imports. However, since all nations could not simultaneously have an export surplus and the amount of gold and silver was fixed at any particular point in time, one nation could gain only at the expense of other nations. The mercantilists thus preached economic nationalism, believing that national interests were basically in conflict.Adam Smith, on the other hand, believed that free trade would make all nations better off.All of this is relevant today because many of the arguments made in favor of restricting international trade to protect domestic jobs are very similar to the mercantilists arguments made three or four centuries ago. That is why we can say that “mercantilism is alive and well in the twenty-fi rst century”. Thus we have to be prepared to answer anddemonstrate that these arguments are basically wrong.2. According to Adam Smith, the basis for trade was absolute advantage, or one country beingmore productive or efficient in the production of some commodities and other countries being more productive in the production of other commodities.The gains from trade arise as each country specialized in the production of the commodities in which it had an absolute advantage and importing those commodities in which the nation had an absolute disadvantage.Adam Smith believed in free trade and laissez-faire, or as little government interference with the economic system as possible. There were to be only a few exceptions to this policy of laissez-faire and free trade. One of these was the protection of industries important for national defense.3. Ricardo’s law of comparative advantage is superior to Smith’s theory of absolute advantagein that it showed that even if a nation is less efficient than or has an absolute disadvantage in the production of all commodities with respect to the other nations, there is still a basis forbeneficial trade for all nations.The gains from trade arise from the increased production of all commodities that arises when each country specializes in the production of and exports the commoditiesof its comparative advantage and imports the other commodities.A nation that is less efficient than others will be able to export the commodities of itscomparative advantage by having its wages and other costs sufficiently lower than in othernations so as to make the commodities of its comparative advantage cheaper in terms of the same currency with respect to the other nations.4. a. In case A, the United States has an absolute and a comparative advantage in wheat andthe United Kingdom in cloth. In case B, the United States has an absolute advantage (so that the United Kingdom has an absolute disadvantage) in both commodities. In case C, theUnited States has an absolute advantage in wheat but has neither an absolute advantage nor disadvantage in cloth. In case D, the United States has an absolute advantage over theUnited Kingdom in both commodities.b. In case A, the United States has a comparative advantage in wheat and the UnitedKingdom in cloth. In case B, the United States has a comparative advantage in wheat and the United Kingdom in cloth. In case C, the United States has a comparative advantage in wheat and the United Kingdom in cloth. In case D, the United States and the United Kingdom havea comparative advantage in neither commodities.5. a. The United States gains 1C.b. The United Kingdom gains 4C.c. 3C < 4W < 8C.d. The United States would gain 3C while the United Kingdom would gain 2C.6. a. The cost in terms of labor content of producing wheat is 1/4 in the United States and 1 inthe United Kingdom, while the cost in terms of labor content of producing cloth is 1/3 in the United States and 1/2 in the United Kingdom.b. In the United States, Pw=$1.50 and Pc=$2.00.c. In the United Kingdom, Pw=£1.00 and Pc=£0.50.7. The United States has a comparative disadvantage in the production of textiles. Restrictingtextile imports would keep U.S. workers from eventually moving into industries in which the United States has a comparative advantage and in which wages are higher.8. Ricardo’s explanation of the law of comparative is unacceptable because it is based on thelabor theory of value, which is not an acceptable theory of value.The explanation of the law of comparative advantage can be based on the opportunity cost doctrine, which is an acceptable theory of value.9. The production possibilities frontier reflects the opportunity costs of producing bothcommodities in the nation.The production possibilities frontier under constant costs is a (negatively sloped) straight line.The absolute slope of the production possibilities frontier reflects or gives the price of the commodity plotted along the horizontal axis in relation to the commodity plotted along the vertical axis.10. a. See Figure 1.1.b. In the United States Pw/Pc=3/4, while in the United Kingdom, Pw/Pc=2.c. In the United States Pc/Pw=4/3, while in the United Kingdom Pc/Pw=1/2.d. See Figure 1.2.The autarky points are A and A' in the United States and the United Kingdom, respectively.The points of production with trade are B and B' in the United States and the United Kingdom, respectively.The points of consumption are E and E' in the United States and the United Kingdom, respectively. The gains from trade are shown by E > A for the U.S. and E' > A' for the U.K.ANSWERS TO REVIEW QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS1. a. Increasing opportunity costs arise because resources or factors of production are nothomogeneous (i.e., all units of the same factor are not identical or of the same quality) and not used in the same fixed proportion or intensity in the production of all commodities.This means that as the nation produces more of a commodity; it must utilize resources that become progressively less efficient or less suited for the production of that commodity. As a result, the nation must give up more and more of the second commodity to release justenough resources to produce each additional unit of the first commodity (i.e., it facesincreasing costs).b. In the real world, the production frontiers of different nations will usually differ becauseof differences in factor endowments and technology.2. a. See Figure3.1.b. The slope of the transformationcurve increases as the nationproduces more of X and decreasesas the nation produces more of Y.These reflect increasingopportunity costs as the nationproduces more of X or Y.3. a. See Figures 3.2a and 3.2b.b. Nation 1 has a comparative advantage in X and Nation 2 in Y.c. If the relative commodity price line in autarky has equal slope in both nations. This is rare.4. a. See Figures 3.3a and 3.3 b. Points B and B’ are the production points in Nations 1 and 2,respectively, with specialization and trade and E and E’ are the consumption points.b. Nation 1 gains by the amount by which community indifference curve III (point E) isabove indifference curve I (point A). Nation 2 gains to the extent that community indifference curve III’ (point E’) is above indifference curve I’ (point A).5. a. The equilibrium-relative commodity price in isolation is the relative price that prevailsin the nation without trade or in autarky.b. The equilibrium-relative commodity price in isolation for the commodity plotted alongthe horizontal axis is given by the (absolute) slope of the tangent of the production frontier and the community indifference curve at the point of production and consumption in thenation in isolation.c. The nation with the lower equilibrium relative commodity price in isolation or autarkyhas a comparative advantage in the commodity measured along the commodity axis and a comparative disadvantage in the commodity measured along the vertical axis.6. a. Nation 1 is better off at point E’ than at point A’ because point E’ is on higher communityindifference curve III than at point A, which is on lower community indifference curve I.b. Nation 1 consumes less of commodity Y at point E’ (40Y) than at point A’ (60Y) becauseP Y/P X is much higher at point E’ (P B’ =1) than at point A’ (P A’ =1/4, the inverse of P X/P Y=4).7. a. The reason for incomplete specialization under increasing costs is that as each nationspecializes in the production of the commodity of its comparative advantage, the relative commodity price in each nation moves toward each other (i.e., become less unequal) until they are identical in both nations. At that point, it does not pay for either nation to continue to expand the production of the commodity of its initial comparative advantage. This occurs before either nation has completely specialized in production.b. Under constant costs, each nation specializes completely in production of thecommodity of its comparative advantage (i.e., produces only that commodity). The reason is that since it pays for the nation to obtain some of the commodity of its comparativedisadvantage from the other nation, then it pays for the nation to get all of the commodity of its comparative disadvantage from the other nation (i.e., to specialize completely in the production of the commodity of its comparative advantage).8. See Figure 3.5 (Please disregard Figure 3.4, which shows how to derive the demand andsupply curve for commodity X for Nation 1 and Nation 2 that are used to show how theequilibrium relative commodity price is determined with trade – a topic that is covered inAppendix A3.1.Nations 1 and 2 have identical production frontiers (shown by a single curve) but different tastes (indifference curves). In isolation, Nation 1 produces and consumes at point A and Nation 2 at point A’. Since P A < P A’, Nation 1 has a comparative advantage in X and Nation2 in Y.With trade, Nation 1 specializes in the production of X and produces at B, while Nation 2 specializes in Y and produces at B’ (which coincides with B). By exchanging BC = C’E’ of X for CE = C’B of Y with each other (see trade triangles BCE and B’C’E’), Nation 1 ends up consuming at E on indifference curve III (higher than indifference curve I at point A) and Nation 2 consumes at on indifference curve III’ (higher than indifference curve I’ at po int A’).9. a. If the terms of trade of a nation improved from 100 to 110 over a given period of time, theterms of trade of the trade partner would deteriorate by about 9 percent over the same period of time [(100-110)/110 = -0.09 =0.9%].b. A deterioration in the terms of trade of the trade partner can be said to be unfavorable to thetrade partner because the trade partner must pay a higher price for its imports in terms of its exports.c. This does not necessarily mean that the welfare of the trade partner has decreased becausethe deterioration in its terms of trade may have resulted from an increase in productivity that is shared with the other nation.10. It is true that Mexico's wages are much lower than U.S. wages (they are about one fifth of theaverage wage in the United States), but labor productivity is much higher in the United Statesand so labor costs are not necessarily higher than in Mexico. In any event, trade can still be based on comparative advantage.*CHAPTER 4(Core Chapter)THE HECKSCHER-OHLIN AND OTHER TRADE THEORIES ANSWERS TO REVIEW QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS1. a. The Heckscher–Ohlin (H-0) theorem postulates that a nation will export thosecommodi ties whose production requires the intensive use of the nation’s relativelyabundant and cheap factor and import the commodities whose production requires theintensive use of the nation’s relatively scarce and expensive factor. In short, the relatively labor-rich nation exports relatively labor-intensive commodities and imports the relatively capital-intensive commodities.b. Heckscher and Ohlin identify the relative difference in factor endowments amongnations as the basic determinant of comparative advantage and international trade.c. The H-O Theory represents an extension of the standard trade model because itexplains the basis for comparative advantage (classical economists, such as Ricardo hadassumed it) and examines the effect of international trade on factor prices and incomedistribution (which classical economists had left unanswered).2. See Figure 4.1.3. a. The factor–price equalization theorem postulates that international trade will bringabout the equalization of the returns to homogeneous or identical factors across nations.b. The Stopler-Samuelson theorem postulates that free international trade reduces the realincome of the nation’s relatively scarce factor and increases the real income of the nation’s relatively abundant factor.c. The specific-factors model postulates that the opening of trade (1) benefits the specificfactor used in the production of t he nation’s export commodity, (2) harms the specific factor used in the production of the nation’s import-competing industry, and (3) leads to anambiguous effect (i.e., it may benefit or harm) the mobile factor.d. Trade acts as a substitute for the international mobility of factors of production in itseffect on factor prices. With perfect mobility, labor would migrate from the low-wagenation to the high-wage nation until wages in the two nations are equalized. Similarly,capital would move from the low-interest to the high-interest nation until the rate ofinterest was equalized in the two nations.4. a. The Leontief paradox refers to the original Leontief’s finding that U.S. importsubstitutes were more K-intensive than U.S. exports. This was the opposite of what the H-O theorem postulated.b. The Leontief paradox was resolved by including human capital into the calculationsand excluding industries based on natural resources. Recent research using data on many sectors, for many countries, over many years, and considering that countries couldspecialize in a particular subset or group of commodities that were best suited to theirspecific factor endowments, provides strong support for the H-O theorem.c. The Hecksher-Olhin theory remains the centerpiece of modern trade theory for explaininginternational trade today. To be sure, there are other forces (such as economies of scale,product differentiation, and technological differences across countries) that provide additional reasons and explanations for some international trade not explained by the basic H-O model.These other trade theories complement the basic H-O model in explaining the pattern ofinternational trade in the world today.5. International trade with developing economies, especially newly industrializing economies(NIEs), contributed in two ways to increased wage inequalities between skilled and unskilled workers in the United States during the past two decades. Directly, by reducing the demand for unskilled workers as a result of increased U.S. imports of labor-intensive manufactures and, indirectly, by speeding up the introduction of labor-saving innovations, which furtherreduced the U.S. demand for unskilled workers. International trade, however, was only asmall cause of increased wage inequalities in the United States. The most important causewas technological change.6. a. Economies of scale refer to the production situation where output grows proportionatelymore than the increase in inputs or factors of production. For example, output may morethan double with a doubling of inputs.b. Even if two nations were identical in every respect, there is still a basis for mutuallybeneficial trade based on economies of scale. When each nation specializes in theproduction of one commodity, the combined total world output of both commodities will be greater than without specialization when economies of scale are present. With trade, each nation then shares in these gains.c. The new international economies of scale refers to the increase in productivity resultingfrom firms purchasing parts and components from nations where they are made cheaper and better, and by establishing production facilities abroad.7. a. Product differentiation refers to products that are similar, but not identical.Intra-industry trade refers to trade in differentiated products, as opposed to inter-industry trade in completely different products.b. Intra-industry trade arises in order to take advantage of important economies of scale inproduction. That is, with intra-industry trade each firm or plant in industrial countries can specialize in the production of only one, or at most a few, varieties and styles of the same product rather than many different varieties and styles of a product and achieve economies of scale.c. With few varieties and styles, more specialized and faster machinery can be developedfor a continuous operation and a longer production run. The nation then imports othervarieties and styles from other nations. Intra-industry trade benefits consumers because of the wider range of choices (i.e., the greater variety of differentiated products) available at the lower prices made possible by economies of scale in production.*CHAPTER 5(Core Chapter)TRADE RESTRICTIONS: TARIFFSANSWERS TO REVIEW QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS1. a. See Figure 5.1.b. Consumption is 70X, production is 50X and imports are 20X.c. The consumption effect is –30X, the production effect is +30X, the trade effect is –60X,and the revenue effect is $30 (see Figure 5.1).2. a. The consumer surplus is $250 without and $l22.50 with the tariff (see Figure 5.1).b. Of the increase in the revenue of producers with the tariff (as compared with theirrevenues under free trade), $22.50 represents the increase in production costs and another $22.50 represents the increase in rent or producer surplus (see Figure 5.1).c. The dollar value or the protection cost of the tariff is $45 (see Figure 5.1).3.The dollar value or the protection cost of the tariff is $45 (see Figure 5.2).4.The dollar value or the protection cost of the tariff is $45 (see Figure5.3).5. The optimum tariff is the tariff that maximizes the net benefit resulting from theimprovement in the nation’s terms of trade against the negative effect resulting fromreduction in the volume of trade.6. a. When a nation imposes an optimum tariff, the trad e partner’s welfare declines becauseof the lower volume of trade and the deterioration in its terms of trade.b. The trade partner is likely to retaliate and in the end both nations are likely to losebecause of the reduction in the volume of trade.7. Even when the trade partner does not retaliate when one nation imposes the optimum tariff,the gains of the tariff-imposing nation are less than the losses of the trade partner, so thatthe world as a whole is worse off than under free trade. It is in this sense that free trademaximizes world welfare.8. a. The nominal tariff is calculated on the market price of the product or service. The rateof effective protection, on the other hand, is calculated on the value added in the nation. It is equal to the value of the price of the commodity or service minus the value of theimported inputs used in the production of the commodity or service.b. The nominal tariff is important to consumers because it determines by how much theprice of the imported commodity increases. The rate of effective protection is important for domestic producers because it determines the actual rate of protection provided by thetariff to domestic processing.9. a. Rates of effective protection in industrial nations are generally much higher than thecorresponding nominal rates and increase with the degree of processing.b. The tariff structure of developed nations is of great concern for developing nationsbecause it discourages manufacturing production in developing nations.10. If a nation reduces the nominal tariff on the importation of the raw materials required toproduce a commodity but does not reduce the tariff on the importation of the finalcommodity produced with the imported raw material, then the effective tariff rates willincrease relative to the nominal tariff rate on the commodity.*CHAPTER 6(Core Chapter)NONTARIFF TRADE BARRIERS ANDTHE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PROTECTIONISMANSWERS TO REVIEW QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS1. a. An import quota will increase the price of the product to domestic consumers, reducethe domestic consumption of the good, increase domestic production, and result in aprotection or deadweight loss to the economy.b. The effects of an import quota are identical to those of an equivalent import tariff,except that with a quota the government does not collect a tariff revenue (unless it auctions off import quotas to the highest bidder). The import quota is also more restrictive than an equivalent import tariff because foreign producers cannot increase their exports bylowering their prices.2.By penciling in D”X in Figure 1, we can see that the effects of the import quota are:P x=$2.00 and consumption is 60X, of which 40X are produced domestically and 20X areimported; by auctioning off import licenses, the revenue effect would be $20.3.The effects of an export quota of 20X are identical to those of an import quota of 20X or a100 percent import tariff on commodity X, except that the revenue effect is collected by the exporters, rather than by the domestic importers or their government.7. a. The infant-industry argument postulates that temporary protection may be justified inorder to allow a developing nation to develop an industry in which it has a potentialcomparative advantage. Temporary trade protection is then justified to establish and protect the domestic industr y during its “infancy” until it can grow and meet foreign competition.For this argument to be valid, however, protection must be temporary and the return in the grown-up industry must be sufficiently high to also offset the higher prices paid bydomestic consumers of the commodity during the period of infancy.b. The infant-industry argument must be qualified in several important ways to beacceptable. First, this argument is more justified for developing nations (where capitalmarkets may not function properly) than for industrial nations. Second, it is usuallydifficult to identify which industry or potential industry qualifies for this treatment, andexperience has shown that protection, once given, is difficult to remove. Third, and most important, what trade protection (say in the form of an import tariff) can do, an equivalent production subsidy to the infant industry can do better.8. a. According to strategic industrial trade policy a nation can create a comparativeadvantage (through temporary trade protection, subsidies, tax benefits, and cooperativegovernment–industry programs) in a high-technology field deemed crucial to future growth in the nation.b. There are also serious difficulties in carrying strategic industrial and trade policies.First, it is extremely difficult to pick winners (i.e., choose the industries that will contribute significantly to growth in the future). Second, if most leading nations undertake strategictrade policies at the same time, their efforts are largely neutralized. Third, when a country does achieve substantial success with a strategic trade policy, this comes at the expense of other countries (i.e., it is a beggar-thy-neighbor policy), which are, therefore, likely to retaliate. Faced with all these practical difficulties, even supporters of strategic trade policy grudgingly acknowledge that free trade is still the best policy, after all.*CHAPTER 7(Core Chapter)ECONOMIC INTEGRATIONANSWERS TO REVIEW QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS1.If Nation A imposes a 100 percent ad valorem tariff on imports of commodity X fromNation B and Nation C, Nation A will produce commodity X domestically because thedomestic price of commodity X is $10 as compared with the tariff-inclusive price of $16 if Nation A imported commodity X from Nation B and $12 if Nation A imported commodity X from nation C.2. a. If Nation A forms a customs union with Nation B, Nation A will import commodity Xfrom Nation B at the price of $8 instead of producing it itself at $10 or importing it fromNation C at the tariff-inclusive price of $12.b. The formation by Nation A of a customs union with Nation B leads to trade creationonly because Nation A replaces the domestic production of commodity X at Px=$10 with tariff-free imports of commodity X from Nation B at Px=$8.3.If Nation A imposes a 50 percent ad valorem tariff on imports of commodity X fromNation B and Nation C, Nation A will import commodity X from nation C at thetariff-inclusive price of $9 instead of producing commodity X itself or importing it from Nation B at the tariff-inclusive price of $12.4. a. If Nation A forms a customs union with Nation B, Nation A will import commodity Xfrom Nation B at the price of $8 instead of importing it from Nation C at the tariff-inclusive price of $9.b. The formation by Nation A of a customs union with Nation B leads not only to tradecreation but also to trade diversion because it replaces lower-cost imports of commodity X of $6 (from the point of view of Nation A as a whole) with higher priced imports ofCommodity X from Nation B at $8.Specifically, Nation A's importers do not import commodity X from Nation C because the tariff-inclusive price of commodity X from Nation C is $9 as compared with the no-tariff price of $8 for imports of commodity X from Nation B. However, since the government of Nation A collects the $3 tariff per unit on imports of commodity X fromNation C, the net effective price for imports of commodity X from Nation C is really $6 for Nation A as a whole.5. a. See Figure 7.1.b. The net gain from the trade-diverting customs union shown in Figure 1 is given byC'JJ'+B'HH'-MJ'H'N. As contrasted with the case in Figure 7-1 in the text, however, the sum of the areas of the two triangles (measuring gains) is here greater than the area therectangle (measuring the loss). Thus, the nation would now gain from the formation of acustom union. Had we drawn the figure on graph paper, we would have been able tomeasure the net gain in monetary terms also.6. A customs union that leads to both trade creation and trade diversion is more likely to leadto a net positive welfare gain of the nation joining the union (1) the smaller is the relative inefficiency of the union member in relation to the non-union member and (2) the higher is the level of the tariff imposed by the customs union on the non-union member.7.The dynamic benefits resulting from the formation of a customs union are (1) increasedcompetition, (2) economies of scale, (3) stimulus to investment, and (4) better utilization of economic resources. These are likely to be much more significant than the static benefits.8.See Figure 7.2. The formation of the customs union has no effect.。

国际经济学II --- 国际贸易实证研究2007年春季何茵中国经济研究中心620答疑: Mondays 1:30-3:00 & 预约yin.he@课程简介这门课旨在介绍如何将实证研究的方法- 计量、调查、投入-产出分析、模拟、以及实证一般均衡的方法- 用于估计国际经济学（主要是国际贸易）的理论。

在修这门课之前，你应该已经学过了国际贸易和经济计量学（包括时间序列分析）。

下面是这门课的阅读材料。

其中所包括的问题只是所有国际贸易问题的一部分，所列文献也只是所有相关文献的一小部分。

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没有星号的作学习参考用。

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希望它能成为一篇可发表文章或毕业论文的一部分。

3. 总结汇报（10%）：在课上将自己的research proposal进行报告，征求大家的建议，以获得改进。

4. 课堂参与（20%）：对课程进行中要求的必读文献进行报告和讨论，每人报告的文章数量与选课人数成反比。

同时积极参与课堂讨论。

教科书Bowen, Hollander, and Viaene (BHV), Applied International Trade Analysis (U. of Michigan Press, 1998).参考文献I. Introduction: Measurement and Data Sources: 1周*BHV, Chapter 1*R. Ballance, et al, "Consistency Tests of Alternative Measures of Comparative Advantage," Rev. of Economics and Statistics, Feb. 1987, 157-161*K. Maskus, "Comparing International Trade Data and Product and National Characteristics Data for the Analysis of Trade Models," in Hooper and Richardson, eds., International Economic Transactions: Issues in Measurement and Empirical Research, 1991, 17-56 (hereafter IET)*R.C. Feenstra, et al, "US Imports, Exports, and Tariff Data, 1989-2001," NBER working paper 9387, December 2002.II. Testing Trade Theories, Part 1: 2-5周A. Surveys:*E. Leamer and J. Levinsohn, "International Trade Theory: the Evidence" in Grossman and Rogoff, eds., Handbook of International Economics Vol. 3, 1341-1345.*J. Harrigan, "Specialization and the Volume of Trade: Do the Data Obey the Laws?" NBER working paper 8675, December 2001.A.V. Deardorff, "Testing Trade Theories and Predicting Trade Flows," in Jones andKenen, eds., Handbook of International Economics Vol. 1, 1984, 467-518.E. Helpman, "Explaining the Structure of Foreign Trade: Where do We Stand?" manuscript, 1998B. Ricardian Model:*BHV, Chapter 3.6*S. Golub and C. Hsieh, "Classical Ricardian Theory of Comparative Advantage Revisited," Review of International Economics, May 2000, 221-234.C. Factor-Proportions Model:*BHV, Chapter 4.4 and Chapter 8E. Leamer, Sources of International Comparative Advantage, (MIT Press, 1984)R. Stern and K. Maskus, "Determinants of the Structure of U.S. Foreign Trade, 1958-76" J. of International Economics, May 1981, 207-224.*H. Bowen, et al, "Multicountry, Multifactor Tests of the Factor Abundance Theory," American Economic Review, Dec. 1987, 791-809.*D. Trefler, "The Case of the Missing Trade and Other Mysteries" American Economic Review, December 1995, 1029-1046.D. Davis, et al, "Using International and Japanese Regional data to Determine when the Factor Abundance Theory of Trade Works" American Economic Review, June 1997, 421-446.*J. Harrigan, "Technology, Factor Supplies, and International Specialization: Estimating the Neoclassical Model," American Economic Review, September 1997, 475-494.*D. Davis and D. Weinstein, "An Account of Global Factor Trade," American Economic Review, December 2001, 1423-1453.K. Maskus, "A Test of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek Theorem: the Leontief Commonplace," Journal of International Economics, Nov. 1985, 201-212.J. Harrigan, "Factor Endowments and the International Location of Production: Econometric Evidence for the OECD, 1970-1985," J. of International Economics, August 1995, 123-141.Dan Trefler, "International Factor Price Differences: Leontief Was Right!" J. of Political Economy, December 1993, 961-987.X. Gabaix, "The Factor Content of Trade: A Rejection of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Leontief Hypothesis," manuscript, 1997.D. Gravity Models: Feb 12-19*J. Frankel, E. Stein, and S. Wei, "Trading Blocs and the Americas: The Natural, the Unnatural and the Super-Natural," Journal of Development Economics 1995, 61-95. J. Bergstrand, "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," Review of Economics and Statistics 1985, 474-481.*J. Bergstrand, "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," Rev. of Economics and Statistics 1989, 143-153.*S. Evenett and W. Keller, "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," Journal of Political Economy 2002, 281-316.J. Anderson, "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review 1979, 106-116.A. Deardorff, "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?" in J. Frankel, ed., The Regionalization of the World Economy, 1997.*J. McCallum, "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, June 1995, 615-623.C. Evans, "Do National Border Effects Matter?" manuscript, 1998.*J. Anderson and E. van Wincoop, "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review (forthcoming), NBER working paper 8079, January 2001.E. Balistreri and R. Hillberry, "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle, Comment," manuscript, December 2002.J. Anderson and E. van Wincoop, "Borders, Trade, and Welfare," NBER working paper 8515, October 2001.J. Harrigan, "OECD Imports and Trade Barriers in 1983," Journal of International Economics, August 1993, 92-111.K. Maskus and M. Penubarti, "How Trade-Related are Intellectual Property Rights?" J. of International Economics November 1995, 227-248.III. Testing Trade Theories, Part 2: 6-8周E. Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition and Bilateral Trade Flows:*E. Helpman, "Imperfect Competition and International Trade: Evidence from 14 Countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 1987, 62-81.*D. Hummels and J. Levinsohn, "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," Quarterly J. of Economics 1995, 799-836.*J. Harrigan, "Scale Economies and the Volume of Trade," Rev. of Economics and Statistics, May 1994, 283-293.W. Antweiler and D. Trefler, "Increasing Returns and All That: A View from Trade," American Economic Review March 2002, 93-119.F. Other Theories:*B. Balassa, "Intra-Industry Specialization: A Cross-Country Analysis," European Economic Review, 1986, 27-42.R. Feenstra, "Gains from Trade in Differentiated Products: Japanese Compact Trucks," in Feenstra, EMIT, 119-136.J. Levinsohn and R. Feenstra, "Identifying the Competition," J. of International Economics, May 1990, 199-216.*L. Hunter, "The Contribution of Nonhomothetic Preferences to Trade," J. of International Economics, May 1991, 345-358.L. Hunter and J. Markusen, "Per-Capita Income as a Determinant of Trade, " in Feenstra, ed., Empirical Methods for International Trade (MIT Press), 1988, 119-136 (book hereafter called EMIT).J. Bergstrand, "The Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem, the Linder Hypothesis, and the Volume and Pattern of International Trade," Economic Journal, Dec. 1990, 1216-1229.P. Armington, "A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production," IMF Staff Papers, March 1969, 159-177.*D. Hummels, "Time as a Trade Barrier," manuscript, July 2001, available at R. Feenstra and A. Rose, "Putting Things in Order: Trade Dynamics and Product Cycles," Review of Economics and Statistics August 2000, 369-382.G. Export Dynamics:*A. Bernard and J.B. Jensen, "Exceptional Exporter Performance: Cause, Effect, or Both?" Journal of International Economics 1999, 1-26.*M. Roberts and J. Tybout, "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review 1997, 545-564.J. Tybout, "Plant- and Firm-Level Evidence on "New" Trade Theories," manuscript, March 2001.IV. International Trade, Growth, and Spillovers: 9-11周BHV, Chapter 14.Gene Grossman and E. Helpman, Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy (MIT Press), 1991.R. Barro and X. Sala-I-Martin, Economic Growth (McGraw Hill), 1995.R. Barro, Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," Quarterly J. of Economics May 1991, 407-443.*G. Mankiw, D. Romer and D. Weil, "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," Quarterly J. of Economics, May 1992, 407-437.*R. Levine and D. Renelt, "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, Sept. 1992, 942-963.D. Dollar, "Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985," Economic Development aAnd Cultural Change, 1992, 523-544.D. Ben-David, "Trade and Convergence Among Countries," J. of International Economics May 1996, 279-298.*J. Frankel and D. Romer, "Does Trade Cause Growth?" American Economic Review June 1999, 379-399.*D. Coe, E. Helpman and A. Hoffmaister, "North-South R&D Spillovers," Economic Journal 1997, 134-149.*W. Keller, "Geographic Localization of International Technology Diffusion," American Economic Review March 2002, 120-142.*David Greenaway, Wyn Morgan, and Peter Wright, "Trade liberalisation and growth in developing countries," J. of Development Economics, Vol. 67, 2002, pp. 229-244 *Markus Taube, "Spillover-effects, crowding-in and the contributions of FDI to growth in China：A Review of the Literature"V. Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: 12-13周BHV, Chapter 11.S. Grubaugh, "Determinants of Direct Foreign Investment," Rev. of Economics and Statistics, Feb. 1987, 149-151.*S.L. Brainard, "An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity-Concentration Tradeoff between Multinational Sales and Trade," American Economic Review 1997, 520-544. *D. Carr, J. Markusen, and K. Maskus, "Estimating the Knowledge Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise," American Economic Review June 2001, 693-708.James R. Markusen and Keith E. Maskus, "General Equilibrium Approaches to the Multinational Firm: A Review of Theory and Evidence," NBER workingpaper number 8334J. Markusen, "The Boundaries of Multinational Enterprises and the Theory of International Trade," J. of Economic Perspectives, Spring 1995, 169-189.K. Head, J. Ries, and D. Swenson, "Agglomeration Benefits and Location Choice: Evidence from Japanese Manufacturing Investments in the United States," J. of International Economics May 1995, 223-248.*B. Blonigen, "In Search of Substitution Effects between Foreign Production and Exports," Journal of International Economics 2001, 81-104.B. Blonigen, "Tariff-Jumping Antidumping Duties," Journal of International Economics June 2002, 31-50.*Leonard K. Cheng and Yum K. Kwan, "What are the determinants of the location of foreign direct investment? The Chinese experience," J. of International Economics Aug. 2000 pp.379-400VI. Empirical Trade Policy Analysis: 14-17周A. Theoretical Introduction: April 9BHV, Chapters 5 and 10.*J. Francois and K. Reinert, eds., Applied Methods for Trade Policy Analysis (Cambridge U. Press), 1997, chs. 1-3 (hereafter AMTPA).*D. Brown, "Tariffs, the Terms of Trade, and National Product Differentiation," J. of Policy Modelling, 1987, 503-526.R. Feenstra, "Estimating the Effects of Trade Policy," in Grossman and Rogoff, eds., Handbook of International Economics: Vol. 3 (North-Holland), 1995, 1553-1596. R. Baldwin, "Trade Policies in Developed Countries," in R. Jones and P. Kenen, eds., Handbook of International Economics: Vol. 1 (North-Holland), 1984, 571-619 (hereafter HIE1).Anne Krueger, "Trade Policies in Developing Countries," in HIE1, 519-569.B. Partial-Equilibrium Models: April 14*J. Francois and K. Hall, "Partial Equilibrium Modeling," in AMTPA, ch. 5.*G. Hufbauer and K. Elliott, Measuring the Costs of Protection in the United States (Institute for International Economics), 1994, chapters 1-2.E. Dinopoulos and M. Kreinin, "Effects of the US-Japan Auto VER on European Prices and U.S. Welfare," Rev. of Economics and Statistics, August 1998, 484-491.*B. Aw Roberts, "Estimating the Effect of Quantitative Restrictions in Imperfectly Competitive Markets: the Footwear Case," in R. Baldwin, ed., Empirical Studies of Commercial Policy (U of Chicago Press), 1991, 201-213 (hereafter ESCP).A. Dixit, "Optimal Trade and Industrial Policies for the U.S. Automobile Industry," in Feenstra, ed., EMIT, 141-165.*D. Rodrik, "Imperfect Competition, Scale Economies, and Trade Policy in Developing Countries," in R. Baldwin, ed., Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis (U of Chicago Press), 1988, 109-137 (hereafter TPIEA).P. Krugman and A. Smith, eds., Empirical Studies of Strategic Trade Policy (U of Chicago Press), 1991.C. Computational General Equilibrium Models of Trade Liberalization: April 16-24 *K. Reinert andD. Roland-Holst, "Social Accounting Matrices," in AMTPA, ch. 4. *S. Devarajan, et al, "Simple General Equilibrium Modeling," in AMTPA, ch. 6. J. Shoven and J. Whalley, Applying General Equilibrium (Cambridge Univ. Press), chapters 4-5.R. Harris, "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," American Economic Review 1984, 1016-1032. J. de Melo and D. Tarr, A General Equilibrium Analysis of US Foreign Trade Policy (MIT Press), 1992.*D. Brown and R. Stern, "US-Canada Bilateral Tariff Elimination: The Role of Product Differentiation and Market Structure," in R. Feenstra, ed., Trade Policies for International Competitiveness (U of Chicago Press), 1989, 217-245.*T. Hertel, E. Ianchovichina, and B. McDonald, "Multi-Region General Equilibrium Modeling," in AMTPA, ch. 9.*D. Konan and K. Maskus, "Joint Trade Liberalization and Tax Reform in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Egypt," Journal of Development Economics April 2000, 365-392. *T. Rutherford and D. Tarr, "Trade Liberalization, Product Variety and Growth in a Small Open Economy: A Quantitative Assessment," Journal of International Economics March 2002, 247-272.C. Shiells, A. Deardorff, and R. Stern, "Estimates of the Elasticities of Substitution between Imports and Home Goods for the United States," Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 1986, 497-519.T.N. Srinivasan and J. Whalley, eds., General Equilibrium Trade Policy Modelling (MIT Press), 1986.J. de Melo, "Computable General Equilibrium Models for Trade Policy Analysis in Developing Countries: A Survey," J. of Policy Modelling, 1988, 469-503.J. Francois and K. Reinert, AMTPA, balance of book.VII. Trade and Exchange Rates: 18周*BHV, chapter 13*M. Knetter, "International Comparisons of Pricing-to-Market Behavior," American Economic Review 1992, 473-486.*R. Feenstra, "Symmetric Pass-Through of Tariffs and Exchange Rates under Imperfect Competition: An Empirical Test," Journal of International Economics 1989, 25-45. VIII. Other TopicsA. Endogenous Trade PolicyA. Bohara and W. Kaempfer, "A Test of Tariff Endogeneity in the United States," American Economic Review, Sept. 1991, 952-960.D. Trefler, "Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy," J. of Political Economy 1993, 138-160. T. Prusa, "Why Are So Many Antidumping Petitions Withdrawn?" J. of International Economics 1992, 1-20.K. Gawande and U. Bandyopadhyay, "Is Protection for Sale? Evidence on the Grossman-Helpman Theory of Endogenous Protection," Review of Economics and Statistics February 2000, 139-152.K. Gawande, "Testing Theories of Endogenous Protection: Robust Evidence from U.S. Nontariff Barrier Data," in K. Maskus, et al, eds., Quiet Pioneering: Robert M. Stern and His International Economic Legacy, (U of Michigan Press), 1997, 37-70.B. Trade and Labor MarketsR. Lawrence and M. Slaughter, "International Trade and American Wages in the 1980s: Giant Sucking Sound or Small Hiccup?" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Microeconomics 2 1993, 161-226.E. Leamer, "A Trade Economist's View of U.S. Wages and Globalization," manuscript, 1995.Ana Revenga, "Exporting Jobs? The Impact of Import Competition on Employment and Wages in U.S. Manufacturing," Quarterly J. of Economics, Feb. 1992, 255-282.Adrian Wood, "How Trade Hurt Unskilled Workers," J. of Economic Perspectives, Summer 1995, 57-80.R. Feenstra and G. Hanson, "The Exact Measurement of Productivity, Outsourcing and Its Impact on Wages: Estimates for the U.S., 1972-1990," manuscript, 1996.B. Aitken, A. Harrison, and R. Lipsey, "Wages and Foreign Ownership: A Comparative Study of Mexico, Venezuela, and the United States," J. of International Economics, May 1996, 345-372.G. Hanson and M. Slaughter, "Labor-Market Adjustment in Open Economies: Evidence from US States," Journal of International Economics June 2002, 3-30.C. Trade, Environment, and Other IssuesW. Antweiler, B. Copeland, and M.S. Taylor, "Is Free Trade Good for the Environment?" American Economic Review September 2001, 877-908.S-J Wei, "How Taxing is Corruption on International Investors?" Review of Economics and Statistics February 2000, 1-11.Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (2000), International Trade and Core Labor Standards, Paris: OECD.11。

【关键字】分析西安欧亚学院本科毕业论文（设计）题目：保利房地产股份有限公司财务状况分析学生姓名：李明昊指导老师：张佳荣所在分院：会计学院专业：会计学班级：1003二0一四年五月摘要随着我国经济的迅速发展，企业的财务状况引起人们越来越多的关注。

在市场经济条件下,企业之间的竞争越来越残酷,越来越激烈,从而暴露出当前企业在财务管理上的种种问题和弊端。

那么企业要在竞争激烈的市场中占取一席之地，并保持优势，就必须对所面临问题进行研究，以求找到解决这些问题的对策和方法，因而做好对企业的财务状况分析也就显得尤为重要了。

通过对财务状况的分析，可以全面地了解企业的经营和发展状况，更加全面科学地评价企业的经营业绩，定位企业的竞争地位，预测企业的经营前景。

房地产业作为国民经济的支柱产业，因其产业相关度高，带动性强，与金融业和人民生活联系密切，发展态势关系到整个国民经济的稳定发展和金融安全。

因此，做好对房地产业的财务状况分析有着十分重要的现实意义。

本文以保利房地产股份有限公司为例，从该公司2011-2013年度的财务报表入手，对公司三年的财务报表相关信息进行解读和分析，通过财务报表分析、财务指标分析等基本财务分析方法,全面的分析和评价保利房地产股份有限公司的财务状况和经营业绩，找出其存在的问题与不足，并针对性地对该公司存在问题提出解决对策和建议，为企业以及房地产行业未来经济的发展提供参考。

关键词：房地产；财务分析；财务指标ABSTRACTWith the rapid development of China's economy, the financial position of the enterprise attracted more and more attention. In a market economy, competition among enterprises is increasingly brutal , more intense, thereby exposing the current enterprise financial management problems and deficiencies . So companies want to take up a place in the competitive market, and maintain our competitive edge , we must face the issue of research strategies and methods in order to find solutions to these problems , so do the analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise it is particularly important. Through the analysis of financial condition and can fully understand the operation and development of enterprises,more comprehensive scientific evaluation of business performance , competitive position in corporate positioning , forecasting operating business prospects . The real estate industry as a pillar industry of the national economy , its industry related high, driven by strong contact with the financial industry and the people living close to the stable development of the relationship between the development of the situation and the financial security of the entire national economy. Therefore, to do the analysis of the financial condition of the real estate industry has a very important practical significance. In this paper, Poly Real Estate Co., Ltd. , for example, starting from the financial statements of the company for the year 2011-2013 , the company 's financial statements for three years to interpret and analyze relevant information , through financial statement analysis, financial analysis and other basic indicators of financial analysis, comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the financial condition and Poly Real Estate corporation 's results of operations , identify problems and shortcomings of its existence , and put forward countermeasures and suggestions to solve the problems of the company targeted for the enterprise as well as the future economic development of the real estate industry reference.Key words: real estate ; financial analysis ; financial indicators1.1研究的背景和意义当前，我国房地产行业发展势头迅猛，已经成为了国民经济的支柱产业，其产业相关度高，带动性强，与金融业和人民生活联系密切，发展态势关系到整个国民经济的稳定发展和金融安全。

Part Ⅰ。

Fill in the blank with suitable content.1.Seven themes recur throughout the study of international economics. These are the gains from trade ， the pattern of trade ， protectionism the balance of payments ， exchange rate determination ， international policy coordination ， international capital market.2。

Countries engage in international trade for two basic reasons ： comparative advantage and economics of scale 。

3。

A country has a comparative advantage in producing a good if the opportunity cost of producing that good in terms of other goods is lower in that country than it is in other countries.4。

Labor is the only one factor of production. LC a 、LW a and *LC a 、*LW a are the unit labor requirement in cheese and wine at Home and Foreign ， respectively 。

If aLC/aLW<aLC*/aLW* ， Home has a comparative advantage in cheese 。

《物流与供应链管理》(LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT)Capsule summary of the book：The world changes unpredictably, which is dependent on the quick transformation of supply chain to adapt to the variational circumstances. This book focuses tightly on those variations mentioned above, emphasizing the problems that appear whenenterprises attach importance to complicated management, as well as whenforecast-driven business modeltransforms into demand-driven business model. Also, this book elaborates how to gives enterprises dominating and competitivesuperiority with effectivelogistics and supply chain management.Chapter1 Logistics, the supply chainand competitive strategy1.1Supply chain management is a wider concept than logisticsOne goal of supply chain managementmight be to reduce or eliminate the buffers of inventory that existbetween organizations in a chain through the sharing of information ondemand and current stock levels. This is the concept of ‘Co-ManagedInventory’ (CMI).The focus of supply chain management is upon the managementof relationships in order toachieve a more profitable outcome for allparties in the chain. This brings with it some significantchallengessince there may be occasions when the narrow self-interest of one partyhas to be subsumed for the benefit of the chain as a whole.1.2Competitive advantageAt itsmost elemental, commercial success derives from either a cost advantageor a value advantage or, ideally, both. It is as simple as that – themost profitable competitor in any industry sector tends to be the lowestcost producer or the supplier providing a product with the greatestperceiveddifferentiated values.A useful way of examining the available options is topresent them as a simple matrix.Value advantageCost advantageTo summarize, those organizations that will be the leaders in the marketsof the future will be those that have sought and achieved the twinpeaks of excellence: they have gained both cost leadership and serviceleadership.1.3 The supply chain becomes the value chainOrganizations shouldlook at each activity in their value chain and assess whether they have a real competitive advantage in the activity. If they do not, the argumentgoes, then perhapstheyshould consider outsourcing that activity to apartner who can provide that cost or value advantage.1.4The mission of logistics managementThe scope oflogistics spans the organization, fromthe management of raw materials through to the delivery of the finalproduct.The last decade has seen the rapid introduction of flexiblemanufacturing systems (FMS), of new approaches to inventory based onmaterials requirements planning (MRP) and just-in-time (JIT) methodsand, perhaps most important of all, a sustained emphasis on total qualitymanagement (TQM).1.5 The changing competitive environment●The new rules of competition●Globalization of industry●Downward pressure on price●Customers taking controlSummary:This chapter familiarizes the reader with the tenets of competitive strategyand within them the vectors of strategic direction: cost and valueadvantage.Vertically integrated businesses continue to be dismembered, refocusedand transformed into virtual ones held together not by ownership but by closely integrated core business processes and financial engineering.Instead of rivalry and mistrust within the supply chain, newcompetitive pressures are demanding speed and flexibility, which themselvesrequire greater openness and trust. In fact the ability to manageprocess innovation and integration are becoming as important capabilitiesas product innovation.Chapter2T Logistics and customervalue2.1 Delivering customer valueQuality × ServiceCustomer value = ––––––––––––––––Cost × TimeQuality: The functionality, performance and technical specificationof the offer.Service: The availability, support and commitment provided to thecustomer.Cost: The customer’s transaction costs including price and lifecycle costs.Time: The time taken to respond to customer requirements, e.g.delivery lead times.2.2 What is customer service?Customer service could be examinedunder three headings:1. Pre-transaction elementsWritten statements of service policy, Accessibility, Organization structure, System flexibility.2. Transaction elementsOrder cycle time, Inventory availability, Order fill rate, Order status information.3. Post-transaction elementsAvailability of spares, Call-out time, Product tracing/warranty, Customer complaints, claims, etc.2.3 The impact of out-of-stockIn the circumstance of out-of-stock, generally,31%Substitute same brand15%Delay purchase19%Substitute different brand26%Buy item at another store9%Do not purchase itemThe impact of logistics and customer service on marketingConsumerfranchise * Customerfranchise * Supply chainefficiency = Marketingeffectiveness•Brand values•Corporate image•Availability•Customer service•Partnership•Quick response•Flexibility•Reduced asset base•Low–cost supplier•Market share•Customer retention•Superior ROI2.4 Customer service and customer retentionThe importance of customer retention is underlined by the conceptof the ‘lifetime value’ of acustomer. The lifetime value of a customer iscalculated as follows:Lifetime value = Average transaction value× Yearly frequencyof purchase× Customer ‘lifeexpectancy’A prime objective of any customer service strategy should be to enhancecustomer retention.2.5Market-driven supply chainsNow, instead ofdesigning supply chains from the ‘factory outwards’ the challenge is todesign them from the ‘customer backwards’his new perspective sees the consumer not at the end of the supplychain but at its start. In effect this is the philosophical differencebetween supply chain management and what more properly might becalled ‘demand chain management’.1.IdentifyvaluesegmentsWhat do our customers value?2.Define thevaluepropositionHow do we translate theserequirements into an offer?3.Identifythe marketwinnersWhat does it take to succeedin this market?4.Develop thesupply chainstrategyHow do we deliver againstthis proposition?2.6Defining customer service objectivesThe whole purpose of supply chain management and logistics is to provide customers with the level and quality of service that they requireand to do so at less cost to the total supply chain. The perfect order is achievedwhen the customer’s service requirements are met in full.To calculate the actual service level usingthe perfect order concept requires performance on each element to bemonitored and then the percentage achievement on each element to bemultipliedtogether.2.7Setting customer service prioritiesQuadrant 1: Seek cost reductions2: Provide high availability3: Review4: Centralized inventory2.8Setting service standardssome of the key areaswhere standards are essential:Order cycle time Stock availability Order-size constraints Ordering convenience Frequency of delivery Delivery reliability Documentation quality Claims procedure Order completeness Technical support Order status informationthe following measures provide valuable indicators of performance：Pre-transactionStock availabilityTarget delivery dates Response times to queriesTransactionOrder fill rateOn-time deliverBack orders by ageShipment delaysProduct substitutionsPost-transactionFirst call fix rateCustomer complaintsReturns/claimsInvoice errorsService parts availabilitySummary:Ultimately all businesses compete through seeking to deliver superiorcustomer value and logistics processes provide the means by which customerservice is delivered.Logistics management can play a key role in enhancing customerlifetime value through increasing customer satisfaction and enhancedcustomer retention. To achieve this will require the development of amarket-driven logistics strategy and the redefinition of service objectivesbased upon customers’ specific requirements. ‘Perfect order’achievement should form the basis for the measurement of service performanceand the creation of service standard.Chapter3 Measuring logistics costs and performance3.1Logistics and the bottom lineProfitProfitSalesROI = ––––––––––––––––This ratio can be further expanded:ROI = –––––– × –––––––––––CapitalemployedSales Capital employedIt will be seen that ROI is the product of two ratios: the first,profit/sales, being commonly referred to as the margin and the second,sales/capital employed, termed capital turnover or asset turn. Thus togain improvement on ROI one or other, or both, of these ratios mustincrease. Typically many companies will focus their main attention onthe margin in their attempt to driveup ROI, yet it can often be moreeffective to use the leverage of improved capital turnover to boost ROI.3.2 Customer profitability analysisBuildDanger zoneCost engineerProtectChapter4 Creating the responsive supply chain4.1Product ‘push’ versus demand ‘pull’whilst independent demand may be forecast using traditional methods,dependent demand must be calculated, based upon the demand at thenext level in the logistics chain.4.2 The foundations of agilityBusiness process re-engineering (BPR) is the term frequently appliedto the activity of simplifying and reshaping the organizational processeswith the goal of achieving the desired outcomes in shorter time-framesat less cost. Many processes in the supply chain are lengthy because theconstituent activities are performed in ‘series’, i.e. in a linear, ‘one afterthe other’ way. It is often possible to re-engineer t he process so thatthose same activities can be performed ‘in parallel’, i.e. simultaneously.Postponement refers to the process by which the commitment of a productto its final form or location is delayed for as long as possible. Whendecisions on the final configuration or pack have to be made ahead ofdemand there is the inevitable risk that the products that are availableare not the ones the customer wants.The philosophy of postponement ideally would begin on the drawingboard so that products are designe d with late configuration inmind. The longer that products can remain as generic ‘work in progress’ then the more flexibility there will be to ensure the ‘rightproduct in the right place at the right time’.Chapter5 Strategic lead-time management5.1 The concept of lead timeFrom the customer’s viewpoint there is only one lead time: the elapsedtime from order to delivery. Clearly this is a crucial competitive variableas more and more markets become increasingly time competitive.Nevertheless it represents only a partial view of lead time. Just as important, from the supplier’s perspective, is the time it takes to convertan order into cash and, indeed, the total time that working capitalis committed from when materials are first procured through to whenth e customer’s payment is received.5.2 Logistics pipeline managementThe goals of logistics pipeline management are:●Lower costs●Higher quality●More flexibility●Faster response timesAn indicator of the efficiency of a supply chain is given by itsthroughput efficiency, which can be measured as:Value-addedtime*100End-to-end pipeline timeThroughput efficiency can be as low as 10 per cent, meaning that mosttime spent in a supply chain is non-value-adding time.5.3 The lead-time gapReducing logistics lead timeBottleneck managementImproving visibility of demandSummary:Time compression in the pipeline has the potential both to speed upresponse times and to reduce supply chain cost. The key to achievingthese dual goals is through focusing on the reduction of non-value-addingtime –and particularly time spent as inventory. Whereas in the past logisticssystems were very dependent upon a forecast, with all the problemsthat entailed, now the focal point has become lead-time reduction.Chapter6 The synchronous supply chain6.1 The role of information in the virtual supply chainFunctions of a logistics information system:Planning functionCo-ordination functionDatabaseCustomer servicecommunication functionControl function6.2 Implications for logisticsThe basic principle of synchronization is to ensure that all elements ofthe chain act as one and hence there must be early identification ofshipping and replenishment requirements and, most importantly of all,there must be the highest level of planning discipline.In a synchronous supply chain the management of in-bound materialsflow becomes a crucial issue.The idea of ‘stockless distribution centres’ or ‘cross-docking’enables a more frequent and efficient replenishment of product frommanufacture to individual stores.6.3 ‘Quick response’ logisticsWhat has made QR possible is thedevelopment of information technologyand in particular the rise ofInternet-enabled data exchange, bar coding, the use of electronic pointof sale (EPOS) systems with laser scanners and so on.Quick responseLess inventoryrequiredReducedlead timesLesspipelineinventoryLesssafety stockReducedforecastingerrorSummary:The key to supply chain responsiveness is synchronization.Synchronization implies that each entity in the network is closely connectedto the others and that they share the same information. In thepast there was often limited visibility, either upstream or downstream,meaning that organizations were forced to act independently, makingtheir own forecasts, and, as a result, i nevitably relying upon a ‘push’rather than a ‘pull’ philosophy.Chapter7 Managing the global pipeline7.1 The trend towards globalization in the supply chainFocused factoriesCentralization of inventoriesPostponement and localization7.2 Gaining visibility in the global pipelineSupply chain event management (SCEM) is the term given to theprocess of monitoring the planned sequence of activities along a supplychain and the subsequent reporting of any divergence from that plan.Ideally SCEM will also enable a proactive, even automatic, response to deviations from the plan.Chapter8 Managing risk in thesupply chain8.1 Why are supply chains more vulnerable?A focus on efficiency rather than effectivenessThe globalization of supply chainsFocused factories and centralized distributionThe trend to outsourcingReduction of the supplier base8.2 Understanding the supply chain risk profileSupply chain risk = Probability of disruption × ImpactThis audit shouldexamine potential risk to business disruptions arising from five sources: Supply riskDemand riskProcess riskControl riskEnvironmental risk8.3 Managing supply chain risk1.Understand the supply chain2.Improve the supply chain3.Identify the critical paths (nodes and links)4.Manage the critical paths5.Improve network visibility6.Establish a supply chain continuity team7.Work with suppliers and customers to improvesupply chain risk management proceduresSummary:All the evidence indicates that as markets become more volatile and thebusiness environment more turbulent, so supply chains become more vulnerableto disruption. Not all of the risk to supply chain continuity isexternal. Significant risk can be created as a result of management decisionsthat are taken on supply chain design and strategy.Chapter9 Overcoming the barriers tosupply chain integration9.1 Creating the logistics visionIdeally the logistics vision should be built around the simple issue of‘How do we intend to use logistics and supply chain management tocreate value for our customers?’The four elements of logistics-derived customer value highlightedpreviously are ‘Better, Faster, Cheaper, Closer’ and the criterion for agood logistics vision s tatement is that it should provide the roadmapfor how these four goals are to be achieved.9.2 Developing the logistics organizationThe horizontal organization has a number of distinguishing characteristics.It is:Organized around processesFlat and de-layeredBuilt upon multi-functional teamsGuided by performance metrics that are market-based9.3 BenchmarkingCompetitive benchmarking might simply be defined as the continuousmeasurement of the company’s products, services, processes andpractices against the standards of best competitors and other companieswho are recognized as leaders. The measures that are chosen forthe comparison must directly or indirectly impact upon customers’evaluation of the company’s performance.Identifying logistics performance indicatorsThe idea behind the balanced scorecard is thatthere are a number of key performance indicators –most of them probablynon-financial measures –that will provide management with abetter means of meeting strategic goals than the more traditional financiallyoriented measures.Step 1: Articulate logistics and supply chain strategy2: What are the measurable outcomes of success?3: What are the processes that impact these outcomes?4: What are the drivers of performance within these processes?In this framework the four key outcomes of success are suggested to be:Better, Faster, Cheaper, CloserSummary:internally integrated across functions and they are externally integratedwith upstream suppliers and downstream customers. Many companiesare impeded in their attempts to become more agile and responsivebecause of an entrenched functional structure. They manage functionsrather than processes and hence have a fragmented approach to themarketplace. It is also difficult for such firms to contemplate externalintegration when they lack internal integration.Chapter10Entering the era ofnetwork competition10.1 Seven major business transformationsFrom supplier-centric to customer-centricFrom push to pullFrom inventory to informationFrom transactions to relationshipsFrom ‘trucks and sheds’ to ‘end-to-end’ pipeline managementFrom functions to processesFrom stand-alone competition to network rivalry10.2 From 3PL to 4PL™Third-party logistics service providers are companies who provide arange of logistics activities for their clients. They might operate distributioncentres, manage the delivery of the product through theirtransport fleets or undertake value-adding services such as re-packing.The fourth-party logistics service provider was that because modern supply networksare increasingly global and certainly more complex, the capabilities tomanage the network probably do not exist in any one organization. Insuch situations, there is a need for an organization who can use itsknowledge of supply chains and specialist third-party service providersto manage and integrate the complete end-to-end supply chain.The 4PL™ would assemble a coalition of the ‘best of breed’ serviceproviders and – using its own information systems capability – ensure acost-effective and sustainable supply chain solution.Whether the 4PL™ be a joint venture or some other model there arefour key components that must be in place. These are:1. Systems architecture and integration skills2. A supply chain ‘control room’3. Ability to capture and utilize information and knowledge across the network4. Access to ‘best of breed’asset providers。

STRATEGIC AND COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS: Methods and Techniques for Analyzing Business CompetitionBy Craig Fleisher and Babette Bensoussan (Prentice Hall, 2002)Book DescriptionGiven the priority of competitiveness in modern companies, practitioners of competitive or strategic corporate intelligence (CI) need to come to terms with what business and competitive analysis is and how it works. More importantly, they need to be able to convert the wealth of available data and information into a valuable form for decision-making and action. Collected data must be converted into intelligence. This is accomplished through analysis.Strategic and Competitive Analysis comprehensively examines the wide spectrum of techniques involved in analyzing business and competitive data and information including environmental analysis, industry analysis, competitor analysis, and temporal analysis models. It helps business analysts and decision-makers to draw effective conclusions from limited data and to put together information that does not often fit together at first glance.The Analysis IcebergStrategic management involves all aspects of a business and requires a knowledge and understanding of the environmental impacts on an organization to ensure that correct decisions are made and taken. It is not just about looking at best fit but of taking into account the needs of different stakeholders and diagnosing the factors required to formulate a good strategy.So how do you formulate strategies and ensure they are the right ones? It is only through the careful collection,examination and evaluation of the facts, that appropriate strategic alternatives can be weighed in light of organizational resources and requirements.In today’s world of information overload, collection of data or information is not, in our opinion, the key issue. Instead, it is the examination and evaluation of the information through analysis that is the key to defining appropriate strategies. This process requires skill, time and effort. While most organizations gather some forms of competitive information, few formally analyze it and integrate the results into their business strategy.When we use the word analysis we mean the separation of the whole into its constituent parts to understand each parts value, kind, quantity or quality. It is not about reasoning from the universal or general to the particular (called synthesis) nor is it about summarizing the information collected. It is about breaking down an issue into its parts. Today’s strategic mindset says that every organization needs to have at least some professionals who are actively engaged in evaluating and examining each part.Analysis is a multifaceted, multi-disciplinary combination of scientific and non-scientific processes by which an individual interprets the data or information to provide meaningful insights. It is used to derive correlations, evaluate trends and patterns, identify performance gaps and above all to identify and evaluate opportunities available to organizations.The reason we do analysis is that although there may be plenty of information around, the issues being analyzed are often quite complex and the overall reality of the situation may not be all that obvious at first glance. Ultimately though, drawing boundaries or boxes around industries, products and markets is a matter of judgment and judgment needs to take account of the purpose of the analysis. Fortunately the precise delineations used in establishing boundaries is seldom critical to the outcome of the analysis as long as we remain wary of the influences that are operating and understand the assumptions, biases and mindsets that we bring to any analytical process.Premises Underlying the Development of the BookThere are literally hundreds of business and competitive analysis techniques that we could have included in this book. It was not our intention to offer an exhaustive listing of the population of these techniques assuming that it could be accurately done in the first place. Instead, we have extensively reviewed the literature in the field, considered survey research and our own experiences in determining those we view as potentially being the most valuable across a broad range of applications in the analysis process.Although we have tried to include both "classic" and evolving techniques, we recognize that some techniques that are being used in consulting and industry may not be included here. We recognize and hope that analysts will creatively develop techniques not included in this book that provide for better outcomes in their specific contexts. The reader should also be alert to the fact that any listing of techniques is bound to run into a variety of problems of semantics and definitional confusion. Some of the techniques included in this book are known by multiple names. This may have occurred because the technique came to be associated with a particular originating organization (e.g., the BCG Matrix), a particular company's use (e.g., the GE Business Screen), a particular author (e.g., Porter's Five Forces Model), or has retained a generic nomenclature (e.g., environmental analysis). We recognize that some of the techniques included in this book have seen modifications in use over the years or are derivatives of other closely related techniques. In all cases, we have tried to include and describe the most popularly known versions of the techniques as opposed to all of a technique's possible derivatives. We have tried to alert the reader to where there is overlap between techniques by suggesting that the reader refer to the overlapping constructs elsewhere in the text.We must also note to our readers that it was not our intention to "invent a new wheel" when it comes to the analytical techniques. The techniques we have included herein all have a history. This books techniques have been and are in use in real organizations; they do not exist just in theory.Many of the techniques included herein were conceptualized by leading economists, financial and cost accountants, futurists, business professors, consultants, and other insightful practitioners or theoreticians. They often developed their ideas in an effort to solve pressing analytical problems that they faced. We are grateful to these individuals for enlightening our understanding of business and competitive analysis. We make a sincere attempt to acknowledge the originators of these techniques in the book. Nevertheless, there are times when accurately making this acknowledgement can be difficult such as when the technique (e.g., SWOT or TOWS) wasquickly and widely accepted and forms the common held body of knowledge underlying the domain.Purpose of the BookWe had a fairly simple purpose in writing this book. We wanted to provide our readers with a helpful text that would assist them in understanding the business and competitive factors impacting their organizations. We know from our own experience and research and most experts recognize that better analysis is positively associated with better decision-making and strategic thinking. Better decision making and strategic thinking are needed by today’s organizations in order to understand the actions necessary to achieve competitive advantages in the marketplace and continuing performance results that are better than ones competitors. We trust our readers will find this guide of value in your endeavors to understand and evaluate your competitive world.The AudienceThe book was written with both the CI specialist and non-specialist in mind. The book encourages readers to review, understand and improve the current practices of business and competitive analysis with which they are engaged. Especially relevant is the comparative methodology, called the FAROUT© method, underlying the description of each technique that helps the reader apply the proper technique under their particular environmental and organizational circumstances.How to Use the BookTo assist our readers, the majority of this book is self-contained with the array of analytical techniques being supported by references for further reading for those individuals that want lengthier treatments. The book is organized into three main sections. Section one provides an introduction that establishes the context for the comprehensive selection of analytical tools. As such, it includes several chapters that describe and discuss the basic facts about analysis, and how analysis relates to strategy, business and competitive intelligence. The last chapter in the section describes our unique FAROUT© method for understanding the application of the various tools. We strongly recommend that readers thoroughly review it before progressing into the remaining sections containing the analytical techniques themselves.We have tried to make the book easy for the reader to use. The basic structure of the chapters containing the analytical techniques is common throughout the book. Readers will benefit themselves by becoming comfortable with the template that we describe thoroughly in chapter 4. We did not design the book for the reader to complete in one sitting. Instead, we have designed it in order that it may be frequently used as a handy comparison and reference source. In this respect, it can be applied in a "just in time" fashion so as to proactively or concurrently meet analytical needs as they arise in the larger CI processThe book features conceptual ideas about business and competitive analysis along with a strong bias toward practical application. Among the unique aspects of this book that readers should find valuable are that:•It provides in one easy location, two dozen of the most common and popular models of analysis in used in business. Normally executives and students would have to go to multiple sources to locate eachmodel as many authors have written a book on his/her particular model or pet theoretical approach.Here, for the first time, the most commonly used models are defined and explained in one book.•Every model is also uniquely evaluated using FAROUT© - an evaluation process for identifying the ease of use, practicality and usefulness of each model. This will be the first time that FAROUT© will be introduced to the market. FAROUT© allows analysts or decision-makers to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the techniques.•An easy to use, consistent format (i.e., template) is utilized to provide the reader with a faster understanding of how to apply the techniques•The book covers both the so-called classic strategy techniques such as portfolio and value chain analysis along with some of the newer popular techniques such as scenario analysis and SERVO analysis.•It provides external techniques addressing the environments and industry that the organization competes in along with the techniques for focusing internally on the organization•Provides references to more comprehensive treatments of the techniques for those who want to investigate them in greater depthTABLE OF CONTENTSPREFACEPART 1 ANALYSIS AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO STRATEGY AND CI1. The Strategy and CI Process2. Analysis and its Pitfalls3. The FAROUT methodPART 2 THE TECHNIQUES OF STRATEGY AND COMPETITIVE ANALYSISSection 1: Strategic Analytical Techniques4. BCG growth/share portfolio matrix5. GE business screen matrix6. Industry analysis7. Strategic group analysis8. SWOT analysis9. Value chain analysisSection 2: Competitive and Customer Analysis Techniques10. Blindspot analysis11. Competitor analysis12. Customer segmentation analysis13. Customer value analysis14. Functional capability and resource analysis15. Management profilingSection 3: Environmental Analysis Techniques16. Issue analysis17. Macroenvironmental (STEEP) analysis18. Scenario analysis19. Stakeholder analysisSection 4: Evolutionary Analysis Techniques20. Experience curve analysis21. Growth vector analysis22. Patent analysis23. Product life cycle analysis24. S-curve (Technology Life Cycle) analysis Section 5: Financial Analysis Techniques25. Financial ratio and statement analysis26. Strategic funds programming27. Sustainable growth rate analysis。

关于经济规律的重要论述英语1. The law of supply and demand determines price levels in an economy.供求关系决定了经济中的价格水平。

2. Competition is a necessary and beneficial aspect of free markets.竞争是自由市场的必要且有益的方面。

3. The law of diminishing returns states that as more resources are allocated to a particular activity, the marginal output decreases.递减收益法则指出，当更多资源被分配给特定活动时，边际产出会减少。

4. The law of comparative advantage suggests that countries should specialize in producing goods and services that they have a lower opportunity cost in producing.比较优势法则认为，国家应专注于生产其生产机会成本较低的商品和服务。

5. Inflation is caused by an increase in the money supply relative to the amount of goods and services available in an economy.通货膨胀是由货币供应相对于经济中可用的商品和服务量增加而引起的。

6. The law of diminishing marginal utility states that each additional unit of a good or service provides less satisfaction or utility to a consumer.边际效用递减法则指出，每增加一单位的商品或服务对消费者提供的满足感或效用减少。

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哈佛分析框架与企业财务分析外文文献翻译This article explores the Harvard analysis framework and its n in corporate financial analysis。

The Harvard analysis framework is a strategic management tool that helps businesses analyze their internal and external environments to identify opportunities and threats。

When applied to financial analysis。

the framework can help businesses identify financial strengths and weaknesses and develop strategies to improve their financial performance。

This article provides an overview of the Harvard analysis framework and its key components。

and discusses its n in corporate financial analysis.nIn today's competitive business environment。

it is essential for businesses to have a thorough understanding of their internal and external environments。

This understanding can help businesses identify opportunities and threats。