西方资本主义的意识形态危机

西方资本主义的意识形态危机Joseph E. Stiglitz纽约——几年前，一种强大的意识形态——对无拘无束的自由市场的信仰——几乎将世界推入万劫不复。

即使是在这一意识形态的全盛期——从20世纪80年代早期一直到2007年——美国式去监管化资本主义也只是给世界上最富有国家中的最富有阶层带去了更多的物质享受。

事实上，在这一意识形态长达30年的全盛期中，大多数美国人的收入在年复一年地减少或是停滞不前。

此外，美国产出的增长在经济学上是不可持续的。

太多的美国财富流入了太少的人的腰包，因此增长只能通过消费维持，而消费又只能通过越积越多的债务来融资。

我希望金融危机可以在某种程度上教育一下美国人（也包括其他国家的人），让他们明白，我们需要增进公平、加强监管、促进市场和政府之间的平衡。

可是实际情况并非如此。

相反，右翼经济学大有卷土重来之势，其背后的推手无他，意识形态和特殊利益耳。

右翼经济学重振旗鼓将再次威胁全球经济——至少是欧洲和美国的经济，因为右翼经济学思想在这些地区最为盛行。

在美国，右翼重振旗鼓——其追随者显然是在试图否定数学和经济学的基本定律——正在威胁迫使国债违约。

如果国会要求支出超过收入，那么就会产生赤字，而有赤字需要融资。

但右翼并不是小心衡量每笔政府支出项目的收益和由此带来的增税融资成本，而是意欲采用大棒政策——不允许国债增加，这将迫使支出限定在税收水平之下。

这就带来了一个问题：什么支出最重要——如果不是支付国债利息的支出的话，那么违约就难免了。

此外，目前由自由市场意识形态导致的危机还在继续，远未结束，此时削减支出将不可避免地拉长衰退时间。

十年前，当经济处于繁荣期的时候，美国出现了大笔盈余，以至于国债有被根除之虞。

但入不敷出的减税和战争、大衰退以及暴涨的医保成本（部分原因是乔治·布什政府做出的放任制药公司自由定价的承诺，为此不惜投入政府资金）很快就把巨额盈变成了创出和平年代记录的赤字。

为了解决美国赤字问题，人们立刻采取了如下药方：刺激经济，让美国重回工作轨道；停止无意义战争；控制军事和药品支出；还有增税（至少是对特别富裕阶层增税）。

但右翼所想的并不是这些政策，而是对企业和富裕阶层进一步减税，同时削减投资和社会保障支出，这将把美国经济的未来推向更加危险的境地，还会破坏保存下来社会契约。

与此同时，美国金融部门还在竭力游说放松管制，以便让它们回到先前造成了灾难性后果的鲁莽行事模式。

但欧洲的形势也好不到哪里去。

当希腊和其他国家陷入危机时，欧洲人开出了老方一帖——收紧财政和私有化，这样的措施只会令实施它们的国家积贫积弱。

这一药方在东亚、拉美和其他地方均以失败告终，这回在欧洲也难逃失败命运。

事实上，在爱尔兰、拉脱维亚和希腊，这一药方已经失败了。

有一个替代方案：由欧盟和IMF支持的增长战略。

增长能够重建人们对希腊偿还债务的信心，使利率下降，并为进一步刺激增长的投资开拓财政空间。

增长本身则可以增加税收收入，减少社会支出（比如失业救济）需求。

而由此获得提振的信心可以进一步刺激增长。

遗憾的是，金融市场和右翼经济学家已经成功地将问题往后拉了一大把：他们相信，紧缩将带来信心，而信心又会带来增长。

但紧缩根本就是有害于增长的，它将恶化政府的财政状况，至少不可能像紧缩的鼓吹者所描绘的那样带来大幅改善。

不管从哪个角度看，信心都会受到打击，而最终的结果将是下降螺旋。

我们真的需要在屡战屡败的思想的指导下进行又一场高成本实验吗？不！但事实表明，我们可能得再忍受一次这样的实验。

只要欧洲和美国任何一方没能回到稳健增长的康庄大道，对全球经济都是一种打击。

而如果欧洲和美国均告失败，那后果将是灾难性的，就算主要新兴市场国家能够实现自我实现的增长也救不了世界。

不幸的是，除非明智派胜出，否则世界将在错误的道路上越走越远。

约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨是哥伦比亚大学大学教授，诺贝尔经济学奖获得者，著有《自由落体：汽油市场和全球经济的坠落》。

Joseph E. Stiglitz is University Professor at Columbia University, a Nobel laureate in economics, and the author of Freefall: Free Markets and the Sinking of the Global EconomyThe Ideological Crisis of Western Capitalism Joseph E. StiglitzNEW YORK – Just a few years ago, a powerful ideology – the belief in free and unfettered markets – brought the world to the brink of ruin. Even in its hey-day, from the early 1980’s until 2007, American-style deregulated capitalism brought greater material well-being only to the very richest in the richest country of the world. Indeed, over the course of this ideology’s 30-year ascendance, most Americans saw their incomes decline or stagnate year after year.Moreover, output growth in the United States was not economically sustainable. With so much of US national income going to so few, growth could continue only through consumption financed by a mounting pile of debt.I was among those who hoped that, somehow, the financial crisis would teach Americans (and others) a lesson about the need for greater equality, stronger regulation, and a better balance between the market and government. Alas, that has not been the case. On the contrary, a resurgence of right-wing economics, driven, as always, by ideology and special interests, once again threatens the global economy – or at least the economies of Europe and America, where these ideas continue to flourish.In the US, this right-wing resurgence, whose adherents evidently seek to repeal the basic laws of math and economics, is threatening to force a default on the national debt. If Congress mandates expenditures that exceed revenues, there will be a deficit, and that deficit has to be financed. Rather than carefully balancing the benefits of each government expenditure program with the costs of raising taxes to finance those benefits, the right seeks to use asledgehammer – not allowing the national debt to increase forces expenditures to be limited to taxes.This leaves open the question of which expenditures get priority – and if expenditures to pay interest on the national debt do not, a default is inevitable. Moreover, to cut back expenditures now, in the midst of an ongoing crisis brought on by free-market ideology, would inevitably simply prolong the downturn.A decade ago, in the midst of an economic boom, the US faced a surplus so large that it threatened to eliminate the national debt. Unaffordable tax cuts and wars, a major recession, and soaring health-care costs –fueled in part by the commitment of George W. Bush’s administration to giving drug companies free rein in setting prices, even with government money at stake – quickly transformed a huge surplus into record peacetime deficits.The remedies to the US deficit follow immediately from this diagnosis: put America back to work by stimulating the economy; end the mindless wars; rein in military and drug costs; and raise taxes, at least on the very rich. But the right will have none of this, and instead is pushing for even more tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, together with expenditure cuts in investments and social protection that put the future of the US economy in peril and that shred what remains of the social contract. Meanwhile, the US financial sector has been lobbying hard to free itself of regulations, so that it can return to its previous, disastrously carefree, ways.But matters are little better in Europe. As Greece and others face crises, the medicine du jour is simply timeworn austerity packages and privatization, which will merely leave the countries that embrace them poorer and more vulnerable. This medicine failed in East Asia, Latin America, and elsewhere, and it will fail in Europe this time around, too. Indeed, it has already failed in Ireland, Latvia, and Greece.There is an alternative: an economic-growth strategy supported by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Growth would restore confidence that Greece could repay its debts, causing interest rates to fall and leaving more fiscal room for further growth-enhancing investments. Growth itself increases tax revenues and reduces the need for social expenditures, such as unemployment benefits. And the confidence that this engenders leads to still further growth.Regrettably, the financial markets and right-wing economists have gotten the problem exactly backwards: they believe that austerity produces confidence, and that confidence will produce growth. But austerity undermines growth, worsening the government’s fiscalposition, or at least yielding less improvement than austerity’s advocates promise. On both counts, confidence is undermined, and a downward spiral is set in motion.Do we really need another costly experiment with ideas that have failed repeatedly? We shouldn’t, but increasingly it appears that we will have to endure another one nonetheless. A failure of either Europe or the US to return to robust growth would be bad for the global economy. A failure in both would be disastrous –even if the major emerging-market countries have attained self-sustaining growth. Unfortunately, unless wiser heads prevail, that is the way the world is heading.。