Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations
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CFA试题1.The least accurate statement about measures of dispersion fora distribution is that the:A. range provides no information about the shape of the data distribution.B. arithmetic average of the deviations around the mean will always be equal to one.C. mean absolute deviation will always be less than or equal to the standard deviation.2.One is most likely to reject the null hypothesis when the p-value of the test statistic:A. is negative.B. exceeds a specified level of significance.C. falls below a specified level of significance.3. A recessionary gap is more likely to be observed when:A. real GDP is above potential GDP.B. real GDP is below potential GDP.C. employment is above full-employment equilibrium.4.In an effort to influence the economy, a central bank conducted open market activities by selling government bonds. This implies that the central bank is most likely attempting to:A. contract the economy by reducing bank reservesB. expand the economy through a lower policy interest rateC. contract the economy through a lower policy interest rate5.A company using IFRS reports its interest payments on long-term debt as a financing activity. If the company reported under US GAAP, the most likely effect would be a:A. higher cash flow from operations.B. higher cash flow from financing activities.C. lower cash flow from investing activities.6.Under U.S. GAAP what is the most likely effect of the reversal of a valuation allowance related to a deferred tax asset on net income?A. No effectB. A decreaseC. An increase7.The following information is available about a company: (All figures in $ thousands) 2011 2010Deferred tax assets 200 160Deferred tax liabilities (450) (360)Net deferred tax liabilities (250) (200)Earnings before taxes 4,000 3,800Income taxes at the statutory rate 1,200 1,140Current income tax expense 1,000 900The company’s 2011 income tax expense (in thousands) is closest to:A. $1,000B. $1,050C. $1,2508.A bond has a modified duration of 6.5 and convexity of -42.4. If interest rates decrease by 1.0 percent, the percentage change in the value of the bond will be closest to:A. -6.92%.B. +2.76%.C. +6.08%.9.Assume the following six-month forward rates (presented on an annualized, bond-equivalent basis) were calculated from the yield curve.Notation Forward Rate1f0 0.50%1f1 0.70%1f2 1.00%1f3 1.50%1f4 2.20%1f5 3.00%1f6 4.00%The 3-year spot rate is closest to:A. 0.74%.B. 1.48%.C. 2.06%.10.The following table shows data for the stock of JKU and a market-index.Expected return of JKU 15%Expected return of market index 12%Risk free rate 5%Standard deviation of JKU returns 20%Standard deviation of market index returns 15%Correlation of JKU and market index returns 0.75Based on the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), JKU is mostlikely:A. overvalued.B. undervalued.C. fairly valued.11.An analyst conducts a significance test to determine if the relation between two variables is real or the result of chance. His null hypothesis is that the population correlation coefficient is equal to zero and his alternative hypothesis is that the population correlation coefficient is different from zero. He gathers the following information:Value of the test statistic 2.8092Critical value at the 0.05 significance level 1.96Critical value at the 0.01 significance level 2.58The analyst most likely conducted a:A. one-tailed test and can reject his null hypothesis.B. two-tailed test and can reject his null hypothesis.C. two-tailed test and cannot reject his null hypothesis.12.The free-rider problem, an obstacle to efficiency, is most likely associated with:A. monopoliesB. public goodsC. subsidies and quotas13.Assume that two firms in a duopoly enter into a collusive agreement in an attempt to form a cartel and restrict output, raise prices, and increase profits. Given this, the most likely outcome according to the Nash equilibrium is that:A. Both firms cheatB. Both firms complyC. One firm cheats and the other firm complies14.Which of the following is least likely to be a warning sign of low quality earnings?A. Greater use of operating leases than peer companies.B. Use of a higher discount rate in pension plan assumptions.C. A ratio of operating cash flow to net income greater than1.0.15.Based on best practices in corporate governance procedures, independent board members most likely:A. Meet only in the presence of management.B. Have a “lead” director when the board chair is not independent.C. Hire independent consultants who are pre-approved by management.16.A series of interest rate put options that expire on different dates but have the same exercise rate is best defined as a (n):A. Interest rate cap.B. Interest rate floor.C. Interest rate collar.17. In comparison to a forward contract, a futures contract is most likely to be less:A. Liquid.B. Publicized.C. Customized.18.If the volatility of returns of an underlying security increases, then:A. both call and put option prices increase.B. both call and put option prices decrease.C. call prices increase and put prices decrease.19.High Plains Capital is a hedge fund with a portfolio valued at $475,000,000 at the beginning of the year. One year later, the value of assets under management is $541,500,000. The hedge fund charges a 1.5% management fee based on the end-of-year portfolio value, and a 10% incentive fee. If the incentive fee and management fee are calculated independently, the effective return for a hedge fund investor is closest to:A. 10.89%.B. 11.06%.C. 12.29%.20.Relative to an investor with a steeper indifference curve, the optimal portfolio for an investor with a flatter indifference curve will most likely have:A. A lower level of risk and return.B. A higher level of risk and return.C. The same level of risk and return.21.A project has the following expected cash flows:Time Cash Flow($)0 (125,000)1 100,0002 200,000If the risk-free interest rate is 4 percent, expected inflation is 3 percent, the market risk premium is 8 percent and the Beta for the project is 1, the investment’s net present value (NPV) is closest to:A. $113,000.B. $124,000.C. $139,000.22.Given the following information about three portfolios: PortfolioMean return on theportfolio (%) Standard deviation of the return on the portfolio (%) A 10 20 B 18 15 C63If the risk-free rate is 4%, which portfolio has the highest Sharpe ratio?A. Portfolio AB. Portfolio BC. Portfolio C23.An analyst gathers the following annual information ($ millions) about a company that pays no dividends and has no debt: Net income 45.8 Depreciation18.2 Loss on sale of equipment 1.6 Decrease in accounts receivable 4.2Increase in inventories 3.4 Increase in accounts payable 2.5 Capital expenditures 7.3 Proceeds from sale of stock8.5The company’s annual free cash flow to equity ($ millions) is closest to:A. 53.1.B. 58.4.C. 61.6.24.Analyst gathers the following information about a company andthe market:Current market price per share of common stock €32.00 Most recent dividend per share paid on common stock €2.40Expected dividend payout rate 40% Expected return on equity (ROE) 15% Beta for the common stock1.5 Expected return on the market portfolio 12% Risk-free rate of return 4%A. 16.0%.B. 16.5%.C. 17.2%.25.A market has the following limit orders standing on its book for a particular stock:Buyer Bid Size (# of shares) Limit Price ($) SellerOffer Size (# of shares) Limit Price ($) 1 500 18.5 1 200 20.2 2 300 18.9 2 300 20.35</td> 3 400 19.2 3 400 20.5 4 200 20.1 4 100 20.65< /td> 510020.15520020.7< /td> If a trader submits an immediate-or-cancel limit buy order for 700 shares at a price of $20.50, the most likely average price the trader would pay is:A. $20.35.B. $20.50.C. $20.58.26.An equity portfolio manager is evaluating her sector allocation strategy for the upcoming year. She expects global economic slowdown for the next two years. Further, she believes thatcompanies will be facing diminishing growth rates with respect to revenues and profits. Owing to these beliefs, the portfolio manager will most likely:A. Overweight materials.B. Overweight consumer staples.C. Underweight telecommunications.27.An investor establishes a short position in a futures contract on Day 0 when the price per contract is $100. The investor deposits $5 per contract to meet the initial margin requirement. The maintenance margin requirement per contract is $3. The Day 1 settlement price that would require the investor deposit additional funds on Day 2 equal to $4 per contract is closest to:A. $96.B. $103.C. $104.28.According to put-call parity, a synthetic put contains a:A. Long position in the call.B. Long position in the underlying.C. Short position in the risk-free bond.29.A bond has a 10-year maturity, a $1,000 face value, and a 7% coupon rate. If the market requires a yield of 8% on the bond, it will most likely trade at a:A. Discount.B. Premium.C. Discount or premium, depending on its duration.30.Which of the following least likely describes an advantage of investing in hedge funds through a fund of funds? A fund of fundsmay provide investors with:A. Lower fees due to economies of scale.B. Access to funds that are closed to new investors.C. Access to managers with expertise in finding reliable and good-quality hedge funds.31.A fundamental analyst studying 100 potential companies for inclusion in her stock portfolio uses the following three screening criteria:Screening Criterion Number of Companies meeting the screenMarket-to-Book Ratio >4 20Current Ratio >2 40Return on Equity >10% 25Assuming that the screening criteria are independent, the probability (in %) that a given company will meet all three screening criteria is closest to:A. 2.0.B. 8.5.C. 20.0.32.An expansionary fiscal policy is most likely associated with:A. crowding out of private investmentsB. an increase in capital gains tax ratesC. an increase in government spending on social insurance andbenefits33.A company which prepares its financial statements using IFRS wrote down its inventory value by €20,000 in 2009. In 2010, prices increased and the same inventory was worth €30,000 more than its value at the end of 2009. Which of the following statements is most accurate? In 2010, the company’s cost of sales:A. was unaffected.B. decreased by €20,000.C. decreased by €30,000.34.The financial statement that would be most helpful to an analyst in understanding the changes that have occurred in a company’s retained earnings over a year is the statement of:A. changes in equityB. financial positionC. comprehensive income35.A financial analyst utilizing his analytical expertise and up-to-date information buys a company’s stock. His close friends, who lack information or expertise, imitate the financial analyst’s action and buy the stock. Which of the following statements concerning this behavioral bias is most accurate?A. It improves market efficiency.B. It is identical to representativeness.C. It is inconsistent with rational behavior.36.A market participant has a view regarding the potential movement of a stock. He sells a customized over-the-counter put option on the stock when the stock is trading at $38. The put has an exercise price of $36 and the put seller receives $2.25 in premium. The price of the stock is $35 at expiration. The profit or loss for the put seller at expiration is:A. $(1.25)B. $1.25C. $2.2537.If market interest rates rise, the price of a callable bond, compared to an otherwise identical option-free bond, will most likely decrease by:A. Less than the option-free bond.B. More than the option-free bond.C. The same amount as the option-free bond.38.For an A- rated corporate bond that has deteriorating fundamentals, but is expected to remain investment grade, the greatest risk is most likely:A. default riskB. liquidity riskC. credit spread risk39.CIf three bonds are otherwise identical, the one exhibiting the highest level of positive convexity is most likely the one that is:A. Putable.B. Callable.C. Option-free.pared to the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), where lending and borrowing are carried out at the risk-free rate, a zero-beta CAPM would most likely result in a security market line (SML) with:A. Unchanged intercept and slope.B. A higher intercept and flatter slope.C. A lower intercept and steeper slope.41.Assume U.S. GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) applies unless otherwise noted.Two companies operating in the same industry both achieved the same return on equity with the same net sales, but the two companies were different with respect to return on total assets. Compared with the company that had the higher return on total assets, thecompany with the lower return on total assets most likely had a higher:A. total asset turnoverB. financial leverage multiplierC. proportion of common equity in its capital structure42.A company reported net income of $400,000 for the year. At the end of the year, the company had an unrealized gain of $50,000 on its available-for-sale securities, an unrealized gain of $40,000 on held-to-maturity securities and an unrealized loss of $100,000 on its portfolio of held-for-trading securities. The comp any’ s comprehensive income (in $) for the year is closest to:A. 350,000.B. 390,000.C. 450,000.43.The use of financial ratio analysis is most likely limited in which of the following situations? When:A. providing a means of evaluating management’s abilityB. comparing companies using different accounting methodsC. providing insights into microeconomic relationships within a company that help analysts project earnings and free cash flow44.A company is considering issuing a 10-year, option-free, semiannual coupon bond with a 9 percent coupon rate. The bond is expected to sell at 95 percent of par value. If the company’s marginal tax rate is 30 percent, then the after-tax cost of debt is closest to:A. 6.30%.B. 6.86%.C. 9.80%.45.The best description of the measure of cash flow to use when estimating the total value of a firm is the operating free cash flow:A. Prior to interest payments on debt.B. Prior to interest payments on debt but after deducting funds needed for capital expenditures.C. After adjustment for payments to debt holders, but before dividend payments to common stockholders.46. An analyst gathers the following information about a company: Balance SheetAssets Liabilities and Shareholders’ EquityCash $5,000 Accounts payable $10,000 Accounts receivable 15,000 Notes payable 15,000 Inventory 25,000 Long-term debt 40,000Net fixed assets 80,000 Commonshareholders’equity60,000Total assets $125,000 Total liabilities andequity$125,000Additional InformationNumber of outstanding shares 7,000Market value of long-term debt $45,000Market value of accountsreceivable and inventory90% of reported valuesNet fixed assets 120% of reported value Accounts payable and notes payable Same as the reported value Using asset-based valuation approach, the estimated value per share is closest to:A. $ 9.57.B. $10.29.C. $11.00.47.An investor goes long an FRA that expires in 30 days for which the underlying is 90-day LIBOR for a notional of $10 million. A dealer quotes this instrument at 4.5 percent. At expiration, 60-day LIBOR is 3.5 percent and 90-day LIBOR is 4 percent. The payment made at expiration is closest to:A. $ 12,376 from the investor to the dealerB. $ 12,376 from the dealer to the investorC. $ 16,570 from the investor to the dealer48.An endowment’s fi xed income portfolio comprises three bonds whose market values, par values, coupon rates, and durations are given in the following table:Bond 1 Bond 2 Bond 3Market value $500,000 $1,200,000 $300,000Par value $580,000 $1,100,000 $320,000Coupon rate 11.00% 6.00% 9.00%Duration 6.2 8.1 2.9The portfolio’s duration is closest to:A. 5.73.B. 6.31C. 6.85.49.Consider a $100 par value bond, with an 8% coupon paid annually, maturing in 20 years. If the bond currently sells for $96.47, the yield to maturity is closest to:A. 7.41%.B. 8.29%.C. 8.37%.50.Which of the following statements is least accurate? An investor may construct a portfolio located on the capital market line (CML) by:A. Investing a portion of his capital in the risk-free assetand the balance in a fully diversified portfolio of all equities.B. Investing a portion of his capital in the risk-free assetand the balance in a fully diversified portfolio of all risky assets.C. Borrowing capital at the risk-free rate and investing allhis capital plus all borrowed capital in a fully diversified portfolio of all risky assets.51.A money manager has $1,000,000 to invest for one year. She has identified three alternative one-year certificates of deposit (CD) shown below:Compounding frequencyCD1 Monthly 7.82%CD2 Quarterly 8.00%CD3 Continuously 7.95%Which CD has the highest effective annual rate (EAR)?A. CD 1B. CD 2C. CD 352.An analyst wants to estimate the return on the S&P 500 Index for the current year using the following data and assumptions: Sample size = 50 securities from the indexMean return for those stocks in the sample for the previous year = 0.114.Variance = 0.0529The reliability factor for a 95% confidence interval with unknown population variance and sample size greater than 30 is .If he assumes that the S&P return this year will be the same as it was last year, which of the following is the best estimate of the 95% confidence interval for this year’s S&P return?A. –0.11600 to +0.34400B. +0.05024 to +0.17775C. +0.06110 to +0.1669053.Which of the following will most likely cause the short-run aggregate supply (SRAS) curve to shift to the right?A. Increase in nominal wagesB. Increase in the supply of human capitalC. Increase in business taxes54.Generational accounting indicates the United States, as well as other developed nations, faces severe generational imbalances regarding government programs such as Social Security. Which of the following is most likely a possible outcome?A. Reduction in income taxesB. Increase in government discretionary spendingC. Creation of new money to pay government obligations55.Which of the following is most consistent with real business cycle (RBC) models? The arguments and recommendations of RBC models suggest that:A. monetary variables have a major impact on GDP growth.B. persons are unemployed because their asking wages are too high.C. governments should intervene when the economy is in contraction.56.A firm’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 12.5. The firm has decided to repurchase shares using external funds that have an after-tax cost of 9%. After the repurchase, the earnings per share (EPS) will most likely:A. Increase.B. Decrease.C. Remain unchanged.57. A compa ny’s series B, 8% preferred stock has the following features:• A par value of $50 and pays quarterly dividends.• Its current market value is $35.•The shares are retractable (at par) with the retraction date set for three years from today.•Similarly rated preferred issues have an estimated nominal required rate of return of 12%.• Analysts expect a sustainable growth rate of 4% for the company’s earnings.The intrinsic value estimate of a share of this preferred issue is closest to:A. $33.33.B. $45.02.C. $52.00.58.An analyst determines that a 5.50 percent coupon option-free bond, maturing in 7 years, would experience a 3 percent decrease in price if market interest rates rise by 50 basis points. If market interest rates instead fall by 50 basis points, the bond’s price would increase by:A. Exactly 3%.B. Less than 3%.C. More than 3%.59.The table below provides a probability distribution of stock returns for shares of Orion Corporation:Rate ofProbability Return (%)0.15 -120.6 110.25 18The variance of returns for Orion Corporation stock is closest to:A. 44.36B. 50.94C. 88.7160. According to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) if investors borrow at a rate that exceeds the risk-free lending rate the resulting borrowing portfolios will:A. Plot on a flatter line.B. Plot on a steeper line.C. No longer plot on a straight line.61.An analyst collects the following set of past stock returns: -2.3%, -5.1%, 7.6%, 8.2%, 9.1%, and 9.8%. Which of the following measures of return is most likely the highest?A. Median returnB. Geometric mean returnC. Arithmetic mean return62.In the short run, an increase in output at low levels of production will most likely cause:A. an increase in the marginal cost due to the rising total fixed costB. an increase in the marginal cost due to the law of diminishing returnsC. a decrease in the marginal cost due to economies from greater specialization63. A company has just completed the sale of a tract of land for €3.5 million which was originally acquired at a cost of €2.0 million. The purchaser made a down-payment of €200,000 with the remainder to be paid in equal installments over the next 10 years.A short time after the sale, significant doubt arose about the purchaser ’s ability to meet the future obligations for the land purchase. When compared to the cost recovery method of revenue recognition, the profit (in €) that the company will recognize in the year of the sale under the installment method is most likely to be higher by:A. 85,714.B. 114,286.C. 150,000.64.Two mutually exclusive projects have the following cash flows (€) and internal rates of return (IRR):Project IRR Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4A 27.97% - 2,450 345 849 635 3,645B 28.37% - 2,450 345 849 1,051 3,175Assuming a discount rate of 8% annually for both projects, the firm should most likely accept:A. Both projects.B. Project A only.C. Project B only.65.The post-audit performed as part of the capital budgeting process is least likely to:A. Improve a firm’s operations.B. Produce concrete ideas for future investments.C. Force management to revise the original forecast to match actual results.66.The following information is available for a firm.Market Risk Premium: 7.00%Risk-free Rate: 2.00%Comparable Firm Return: 10.40%Comparable Firm Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 1Comparable Firm Tax Rate: 40.00%The firm’s unlevered beta is closest to:A. 0.75.B. 1.05.C. 1.20.67.An analyst gathers the following data to determine the attractiveness of the company’s common stock:Dividends per share in 2002 $2Dividends per share in 2008 $3Expected return on the market 17%Expected nominal risk-free return 9%Stock’s beta 1.8Stock’s market price as of 1 January 2009 $19A. $12.82.B. $18.29.C. $19.57.68. Two parties agree to a forward contract on a non-dividend paying stock at a price of $103.00. At contract expiration the stock trades at $105.00. In a cash-settled forward contract, the:A. short pays the long $2.00.B. short pays the long $103.00.C. long pays the short $105.00.69.For a commodity if futures prices prices are above the spot price then the market, then the market is most likely to be:A. In contango.B. In backwardation.C. Trading at a premium.70.Over time, the major source of investment return and risk can most likely be attributed to:A. Stock selection.B. Asset allocation.C. Risk management.71.Which of the following statements most accurately describes a valuation allowance for deferred taxes? A valuation allowance is required under:A. both IFRS and US GAAP on deferred tax assets arising from the translation of foreign operations.B. US GAAP if there is doubt about recovering a deferred tax asset.C. IFRS on revaluation of a deferred tax asset.72.Assume U.S. GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) applies unless otherwise noted.For the most recent year a manufacturing company reports the following items on their income statement:Interest expense $62,500 Loss on disposal of fixed assets $50,000 Realized gain on sale of available-for-sale securities $17,750Which of the items is classified as an operating item in the company’s income statement?A. Interest expense.B. Loss on disposal of fixed assets.C. Realized gain on sale of available-for-sale securities.73.A company prepares its financial statements in accordance withU.S. GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles). It expected to be the sole supplier for a state-wide school milk program and had production facilities valued at $28.4 million. Recently several other companies were also granted milk-supply contracts throughout the state and the company now estimates that it will only be able to generate cash flows of $3 million per year for the next 7 years with its facilities. The firm has a cost of capital of 10%. The impairment loss (in $-millions) on the production facilities will most likely be reported in the company’s financial statements as a:A. 13.8 reduction in operating cash flowsB. 13.8 impairment loss in the income statementC. 7.4 reduction in the balance sheet carrying amount74.At the beginning of the year a company purchased a fixed asset for $500,000 with no expected residual value. The company depreciates similar assets on a straight-line basis over 10 years, while the tax authorities allow declining balance depreciation at the rate of 15% per year. In both cases the company takes a full year’s depreciation in the first year and the tax rate is 40%. Which of the following statements concerning this asset at the end of the year is most accurate?A. The tax base is $500,000.B. The deferred tax asset is $10,000.C. The temporary difference is $25,000.75.During 2010, Company A sold a piece of land with a cost of $6 million to Company B for $10 million. Company B made a $2 million down payment with the remaining balance to be paid over the next 5 years. It has been determined that there is significant doubt about the ability and commitment of the buyer to complete all payments. Company A would most likely report a profit in 2010 of:A. $4 million using the accrual methodB. $0.8 million using the installment methodC. $2 million using the cost recovery method76.The unit contribution margin for a product is $12. Assuming fixed costs of $12,000, interest costs of $3,000, and a tax rate of 40%, the operating breakeven point (in units) is closest to:A. 750.B. 1,000.C. 1,250.77.An equity fund manager gathers the following data in order to assess the investment potential of a company and its stock:Company Industry Average Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) 14% 12%Return on Assets (ROA) 20% 15%Dividend Yield 0% 1.20%Consensus estimate of stock’s value $53 N/ACurrent price of company’s stock $50 N/ABased on the above information, which of the following statements most accurately describes the company and its stock? The company is a:A. growth company and its stock is a growth stock.B. growth company and its stock is a speculative stock.C. speculative company and its stock is a growth stock.78.The lower bound on a European call price is the greater of zero and:A. The underlying price minus the exercise price.B. The present value of the exercise price minus the underlying price.C. The underlying price minus the present value of the exercise price.79.A company is long an interest rate swap with a current market。
CHAPTER 8 MANAGEMENT OF TRANSACTION EXPOSURE SUGGESTED ANSWERS AND SOLUTIONS TO END—OF—CHAPTER QUESTIONS ANDPROBLEMSQUESTIONS1。
How would you define transaction exposure? How is it different from economic exposure? Answer:Transaction exposure is the sensitivity of realized domestic currency values of the firm’s contractual cash flows denominated in foreign currencies to unexpected changes in exchange rates。
Unlike economic exposure, transaction exposure is well-defined and short-term。
2。
Discuss and compare hedging transaction exposure using the forward contract vs。
money market instruments。
When do the alternative hedging approaches produce the same result?Answer: Hedging transaction exposure by a forward contract is achieved by selling or buying foreign currency receivables or payables forward。
On the other hand,money market hedge is achieved by borrowing or lending the present value of foreign currency receivables or payables, thereby creating offsetting foreign currency positions. If the interest rate parity is holding, the two hedging methods are equivalent。
前言学弟学妹们,当你们看到这篇复习资料的时候, 学长已经在文档上传的当天上午参加了国际金融的考试, 本复习资料主要针对对象为成都信息工程学院(CUIT)英语系大三学生, 且立足教材也基于托马斯·A ·普格尔(Thomas A. Pugel)先生所著国际金融英文版·第15版, 其他版本或者相似教材也可作为参考, 本资料的整理除了参考维基百科,百度百科以及MBA 智库百科,当然最重要的是我们老师的课件. 为了帮助同学们顺利通过考试, 当然是拿到高分, 希望此资料能够帮助你们节省时间, 达到高效复习的效果.外国语学院2011级,陈爵歌(Louis) 2014年1月6日晚于宿舍 Chapter 2Transnationality Index (跨国化指数)(TNI ) is a means of ranking multinational corporations that is employed by economists and politicians. (反映跨国公司海外经营活动的经济强度,是衡量海外业务在公司整体业务中地位的重要指标) Foreign assets to total assets(外国资产占总资产比)Foreign sales to total sales(海外销售占总销售)Foreign employees to total employees(外籍雇员占总雇员)跨国化指数的构成联合国跨国公司与投资司使用的跨国化指数由三个指标构成:国外资产对公司总资产的百分比;国外销售对公司总销售的百分比;国外雇员人数对公司雇员总人数的百分比关于TNI 的计算公式:International Economic Integration( 国际经济一体化)International economic integration refers to the extent and strength of real -sector and financial -sector linkages among national economies.(国际经济一体化是指两个或两个以上的国家在现有生产力发展水平和国际分工的基础上,由政府间通过协商缔结条约,让渡一定的国家主权,建立两国或多国的经济联盟,从而使经济达到某种程度的结合以提高其在国际经济中的地位)Real Sector(实际经济部门): The sector of the economy engaged in the production and sale of goods and services(指物质的、精神的产品和服务的生产、流通等经济活动。
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这本书系统地介绍了资产管理中的因子投资方法,包括如何分析和选择不同的投资因子,以及如何构建和管理因子投资组合。
4. 《The Business of Asset Management》- 作者:Karel Hullebroeck,Tim Yates
这本书详细介绍了资产管理业务的各个方面,包括市场趋势、资产配置、投资策略和风险管理等内容。
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Part I Bilingual key wordsPart II Terms and Concepts You Need to KnowPart I Bilingual key words1,货币与货币制度monetary system货币 money法定货币fiat money铸币 coin银行券banknote纸币 Paper currency,paper money 货币总量monetary aggregates交易媒介medium of exchange计算单位unit of account价值贮藏store of value通货currency支票check电子货币electronic money支付系统payment system准货币 Quasi-money电子资金划拨EFT Electronic Funds Transfer 借记卡debit card信用卡credit card销售终端point-of-sale存款货币deposit money本位制 standard本位币standard money辅币 fractional money货币法偿能力 legal tender powers复本位制bimetallic standard银本位 silver standard金币本位gold specie standard金汇兑本位gold exchange standard金本位制gold standard金平价gold parity金块本位制 gold bullion standard国际货币制度international monetary system布雷顿森林体系 Bretton Woods Monetary System 牙买加体系Jamaica system美元化dollarization欧元EURO欧洲货币联盟Europe Monetary Union ,EMU最优通货区理论theory of optimum currency area2,信用credit债权 claim债务 debt, debt ,obligation, indebtedness借入 borrowing贷出lending高利贷usury实物信用 physical credit货币信用monetary credit金融finance国际信用international credit银行信用bank credit直接融资direct finance间接融资indirect finance信用风险credit risk泡沫经济bubble economy信用制度credit system信用形式form of credit商业信用commercial credit赊销sale on account,account sales,sale on credit,credit sales 商业票据commercial paper ,commercial bill背书endorsement银行信用bank credit政府信用sovereign credit公债public debts国库券treasury消费信用consumer credit消费贷款consumer loans,loan for consumption 出口信贷export credit买方信贷buyer's credit卖方信贷seller's credit银团贷款consortium loan直接投资direct investment3, 利息与利率利息interest利率interest rate回报率、报酬率return rate of return资本化capitalization本金principal单利simple interest复利 compound interest年利率annual interest rate月利率monthly interest rate日利率daily interest rate官定利率,官方利率 official interest rate 市场利率 market interest rate固定利率fixed interest rate浮动利率floating rate基准利率 benchmark interest rate差别利率 differential interest rate长期利率long-term interest rate短期利率 short-term interest rate名义利率 nominal interest rate实际利率real interest rate即期利率spot rate of interest远期利率forward rate of interest到期收益率yield to maturity利率的风险结构risk structure of interest rate利率的期限结构term structure of interest rate违约风险default risk风险溢价risk premium流动性风险liquidity risk税收风险tax risk预期假说expectation theory expectation hypothesis分割市场理论 market segmentation theory segmented markets theory 流动性升水理论liquidity premium theory利率对储蓄的弹性interest elasticity of saving利率对投资的弹性interest elasticity of investment利率管制interest rate control利率市场化改革 market oriented reform of interest rate4,金融市场金融市场financial market货币市场money market资本市场capital market外汇市场foreign exchange market,exchange market现货市场spot market期货市场futures market金融工具financial instruments直接融资direct finance间接融资indirect finance原生金融工具underlying financial instruments 衍生金融工具derivative financial instruments 流动性liquidity商业票据commercial paper, commercial bill股票stock certificate, stocks, shares普通股股票common stock优先股股票preferred stock债券bond企业债券enterprise bond政府债券government bond金融债券financial bond投资基金investment funds公司型基金corporate type investment fund契约型基金contractual type investment fund 开放型基金open-end fund封闭型基金close-end fund现货交易physicals transaction期货交易futures transaction期货合约future contract金融期货合约financial futures contract外汇期货foreign exchange futures利率期货interest rate futures股票价格指数期货stock index futures contract 期权options期权合约option contract金融期权合约financial option contract看涨期权call, call option看跌期权put, put option欧式期权European type option美式期权 American type option金融互换swaps利率互换interest rate swap货币互换currency swap直接发行direct issue平价发行at par, emission, par issue溢价发行issue at a premium折价发行issue at a discount间接发行indirect issue承销价格 underwriting price认购价格subscription price证券行市 security market股票价格指数share price index,stock index道 --琼斯股价指数 Dow Jones Stock Price Index标准 --普尔股票价格指数Standard & Pool's Composite Index《金融时报》股票价格指数 Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index 日经股票价格指数 Tokyo Stock Price Index恒生股票价格指数Hong Kong Heng Sheng Stock Index上证综合指数Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index深圳成份股指数ShenZhen Stock Exchange Component Index上证 180指数Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 Index上证 50指数 Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index资本资产定价模型capital asset pricing model, CAPM套利定价理论arbitrage pricing theory, APT期权定价理论option pricing theory, OPT收益,收益率yield名义收益率nominal yield实际收益率real yield持有期收益率yield through the whole period到期收益率yield to maturity买卖差价bid-ask spread到期日due date5,金融机构融资交易成本the cost of financing金融风险financial risk金融中介机构financial intermediation跨国金融中介multinational financial intermediation管理性金融机构managerial financial institution商业性金融机构commercial financial institution政策性金融机构policy financial institution中国人民银行People's Bank of China国际金融机构international financial institution国际货币基金组织(IMF) International Monetary Fund世界银行The World Bank国际金融公司 (IFC) International Financial Corporation国际开发协会 (IDA) International Development Association多边投资担保机构 (MIGA) Multi-Investment Guarantee Agency国际清算银行( BIS)Bank for International Settlements区域性金融机构regional financial institution亚洲开发银行 (ADB)Asian Development Bank非洲开发银行 (AFDB) African Development Bank泛美开发银行 (IADB) Inter-American Development Bank欧洲中央银行European Central Bank商业银行commercial bank专业性银行specialized bank投资银行investment bank不动产抵押银行fixed asset mortgage bank开发银行development bank储蓄银行saving bank进出口银行export-import bank政策性银行policy bank跨国银行multinational bank总分行制 branch banking system单一银行制unit banking system控股公司制share holding banking system连锁银行制chains banking system职能分工型银行functional division commercial bank 全能型银行multi-function commercial bank《巴塞尔协议》“Basle Agreement”银行资产业务asset business贷款loan证券投资portfolio investment贴现discount银行负债业务liability business活期存款demand deposit定期存款time deposit储蓄存款saving银行同业拆借inter-bank offered credit发行金融债券financial bond表外业务off-balance sheet business中间业务middleman business汇兑remittance信用证letter of credit代收业务business of collection代客买卖trading agency信贷承诺credit commitment金融创新 financial innovation网络银行internet bank不良贷款bad loan存款保险制度deposit insurance system资产管理assets management负债管理liability management资产负债综合管理comprehensive management of assets and liability 风险管理risk management信用合作机构credit cooperation农村信用合作社rural credit cooperatives城市信用合作社urban credit cooperatives保险公司insurance company保险费insurance premium保险基金insurance funds再保险re-insurance证券公司securities company投资基金investment funds信托机构trust company代理业务agency business租赁leasing融资租赁机构 financing leasing institution转租赁sub-lease回租租赁sale and lease财务公司financial company金融资产管理公司financial assets management company邮政储蓄机构postal savings institution7,中央银行central bank一元式中央银行unit central bank system二元式中央银行dual central bank system复合中央银行制度compound central bank system跨国中央银行制度multinational central bank system准中央银行制度quasi central bank system欧洲中央银行European System of Central Bank , ESCB发行的银行bank of issue银行的银行bank of bank最后贷款人lender of last resort再抵押re-mortgage ,re-collateralize国家的银行the state bank支付清算系统 payment and clearing system支付系统payment system票据交换所 clearing house8,货币需求货币需求demand for money货币数量论quantity theory of money货币必要量volume of money needed货币流通速度velocity of money交易方程式equation of exchange剑桥方程式equation of Cambridge现金交易说cash transaction approach现金余额说cash balance theory货币需求动机motive of the demand for money 交易动机transaction motive预防动机precautionary motive投机动机speculative motive流动性偏好liquidity preference流动性陷阱liquidity trap平方根法则square-root rule货币主义monetarism恒久性收入permanent income名义货币需求nominal demand for money实际货币需求real demand for money资产选择portfolio selection9货币供给货币供给money supply通货currency准货币quasi money名义货币供给 nominal money supply实际货币供给real money supply基础货币base money货币乘数money multiplier原始存款 primary deposit派生存款derivative deposit现金漏损loss of cashes提现率withdrawal rate公开市场操作open-market operation再贴现率rediscount rate法定准备率legal reserve rate超额准备率excess reserves rate外生变量exogenous variable内生变量endogenous variable ,货币供给通货膨胀均衡equilibrium通货膨胀inflation通货膨胀率inflation rate居民消费价格指数 Consume Price Index,CPI批发物价指数Wholesale Price Index,WPI国内生产总值平减指数GDP deflator需求拉上型通货膨胀demand-pull inflation成本推动型通货膨胀cost-push inflation结构型通货膨胀structural inflation爬行式通货膨胀creeping inflation温和式通货膨胀moderate inflation恶性通货膨胀rampant inflation,runaway inflation,galloping inflation,hyperinflation公开型通货膨胀open inflation隐蔽型通货膨胀hidden inflation指数化indexation通货紧缩deflation工资——价格螺旋wage-price spiralPart IITerms and Concepts You Need to KnowBusiness CycleShort run fluctuations in the level of economic activity as measured by output ofgoods and servicesCheckable DepositsDeposits that are subject to withdrawal by writing a checkDefaultWhen a borrower fails to repay a financial claimDepository InstitutionsFinancial intermediaries that issue checkable depositsDeregulationThe removing or phasing out of existing regulationsDirect FinanceWhen net lenders lend their funds directly to net borrowersEconomicsThe study of how society decides what gets produced, how it gets produced, and who gets whatExpansionThe phase of the business cycle where economic activity increases and unemployment falls Federal Reserve ("Fed")The central bank of the United States that regulates the banking system and determines monetary policyFinanceThe study of how the financial system coordinates and channels the flow of funds from lenders to borrowers (and vice versa) and how new funds get created by financial intermediaries in the borrowing processFinancial InstitutionsFirms that provide financial services to net lenders and net borrowers; the most important financial institutions are financial intermediariesFinancial IntermediariesFinancial institutions that borrow from net lenders for the purpose of lending to net borrowersFinancial MarketsMarkets in which financial claims are tradedFiscal PolicyGovernment spending and taxing decisions to speed up or slow down the level of economic activityIndirect FinanceWhen net borrowers borrow from financial intermediaries that have acquired the funds to lend from net lendersLaissez FaireThe view that government should pursue a “hands off” policy with regard to the economy LiquidityThe ease with which a financial claim can be converted to cash without loss of value MacroeconomicsThe branch of economics that studies the aggregate (total) behavior of households and firmsMicroeconomicsThe branch of economics that studies the behavior of individual decision-making units such as households and business firmsMonetary PolicyThe Fed's efforts to promote the overall health and stability of the economyMoneySomething that is generally used and accepted as payment for goods and servicesNet Borrow ersSpending units such as households and firms whose spending exceeds their incomeNet LendersSpending units such as households and firms whose income exceeds their spendingRecessionThe phase of the business cycle where economic activity declines over at least two consecutive quarters and unemployment risesSavingIncome not spent on consumptionTransactions CostsThe costs associated with borrowing and lending or making other exchanges。
按轻重缓急暗补暗亏颁发营业执照办理存款业务保护农民的生产积极性备付金(超额准备金)本外币并账本外币对冲操作本位利益奔小康避税币种搭配不当币种构成变相社会集资表外科目(业务)薄弱环节不变成本不变价不动产不良贷款(资产)财务公司财政赤字财政挤银行财政政策与货币政策的配合采取循序渐进的方法操作弹性操纵汇率产品构成产品积压产销率产销衔接产业政策长期国债敞口头寸炒股承购包销成套机电产品城市信用社城市合作银行城市商业银行城乡居民收入增长超过物价涨幅持续升温重复布点重置成本重组计划筹资渠道初见成效出口统一管理、归口经营出口退税储蓄存款从价税从紧控制存贷款比例存款保险体系存款货币银行存款准备金打白条大额存单大额提现大面积滑坡大一统的银行体制呆账(请见“坏账”)呆账准备金呆滞贷款贷款沉淀贷款分类贷款限额管理贷款约束机制代理国库代理金融机构贷款戴帽贷款倒逼机制道德风险地区差别第一产业第二产业第三产业递延资产订货不足定期存款定向募集东道国(请见“母国”)独立核算短期国债对冲操作对非金融部门债权多种所有制形式恶性通货膨胀二级市场发行货币发行总股本法定准备金法人股法人股东法治房地产投资放松银根非现场稽核非银行金融机构非赢利性机构分税制风险暴露(风险敞口)风险管理风险意识风险资本比例风险资本标准服务事业收入扶贫负增长复式预算制改革试点杠杆率杠杆收购高息集资个人股根本扭转公开市场操作公款私存公用事业公有经济公有制工业成本利润率工业增加值供大于求鼓励措施股份合作企业股份制企业股份制银行固定资产贷款关税减免关税减让关税优惠规范行为规模效益国计民生国家对个人其他支出国家风险国际分工国际收支国有独资商业银行国有经济(部门)国有企业国有制国有资产流失国债回购国债一级自营商过度竞争过度膨胀过热迹象合理预期核心资本合资企业红利宏观经济运营良好宏观调控宏观调控目标坏账还本付息换汇成本汇兑在途汇兑支出汇率并轨活期存款汇率失调混合所有制货币政策态势货款拖欠基本建设投资基本经济要素基本适度基准利率机关团体存款机会成本激励机制积压严重挤提存款挤占挪用技改投资技术密集型产品计划单列市计划经济集体经济加大结构调整力度加工贸易加快态势加强税收征管稽查加权价价格放开价格形成机制减亏简化手续交投活跃缴存准备金结构扭曲结构失调结构性矛盾突出结构优化结汇、售汇金融脆弱金融动荡金融风波金融恐慌金融危机金融压抑金融衍生物金融诈骗紧缩银根经常账户可兑换经济特区经济体制改革经济增长方式的转变经济增长减速经济制裁经营自主权景气回升境外投资竞争加剧局部性金融风波开办人民币业务可维持(可持续)经济增长可变成本可自由兑换货币控制现金投放扣除物价因素库存产品跨国银行业务跨年度采购会计准则来料加工离岸银行业务理顺外贸体制利率杠杆的调节作用利润驱动利息回收率联行清算连锁企业良性循环两极分化零售物价指数流动性比例流动资产周转率/流通速度流动资金贷款流通体制流通网络留购(租赁期满时承租人可购买租赁物)垄断行业乱集资乱收费乱摊派买方市场卖方市场卖出回购证券贸易差额民间信用免二减三明补明亏名牌产品母国(请见“东道国”)内部审计内地与香港内债扭亏为盈扭曲金融分配农副产品采购支出农村信用社泡沫效应泡沫经济培育新的经济增长点片面追求发展速度平衡发展瓶颈制约平稳回升铺底流动资金普遍回升配套改革配套人民币资金企业办社会企业集团战略企业兼并重组企业领导班子企业所得税企业效益企业资金违规流入股市欠税欠息强化税收征管强制措施翘尾因素切一刀清理收回贷款(破产)清算倾斜政策区别对待趋势加强全球化权益回报率缺乏后劲绕规模贷款人均国内生产总值人均收入人民币升值压力认缴资本软贷款软预算约束软着陆三角债善政廉政商业贷款上市公司设备利用社会保障审批金融机构审慎监管生产能力闲置生息资产实际利用外资实际有效汇率实时实收资本实现利润市场分割市场经济市场占有率(市场份额)市场准入市价总值适度从紧适时调节收回对金融机构贷款税后还贷税收流失税源不足私营经济(私人经济)私有制所有者权益逃税套汇剔除季节性因素调节流动性贴现窗口同比同业拆借(放)同业拆借市场利率(中国)同业融通票据同业往来透支退税头寸吞吐基础货币脱媒现象外部审计外国直接投资外汇储备外汇调剂外汇占款外向型经济外债外资企业完善现代企业制度完税凭证违法经营委托存款稳步增长稳健的银行系统稳中求进物价监测吸纳流动性稀缺经济洗钱系统内调度系统性金融危机下岗工人下游企业现场稽核现金滞留(居民手中)乡镇企业消费物价指数消费税消灭财政赤字销货款回笼销售平淡协议外资金额新经济增长点新开工项目新增贷款新增就业位置信贷规模考核信号失真信托投资公司信息不对称信息反馈信息共享系统信息披露信用扩张信用评级姓“资”还是姓“社”行政措施需求膨胀虚伪存款削减冗员寻租迅速反弹养老基金一刀切一级市场应收未收利息银行网点赢利能力营业税硬贷款(商业贷款)用地审批有管理的浮动汇率证券投资游资(热钱)有市场的产品有效供给诱发新一轮经济扩张逾期贷款与国际市场接轨预算外支出(收入)预调月环比再贷款在国际金融机构储备头寸在人行存款在途资金增加农业投入增势减缓增收节支措施增长平稳增值税涨幅偏高账外账折旧整顿政策工具政策性业务政策性银行政策组合政府干预证券交易清算证券业务占款支付困难支付能力直接调控方式向间接调控方式转变职能转换职业道德指令性措施指令性计划制定和实施货币政策滞后影响中介机构中央与地方财政分灶吃饭重点建设周期谷底周转速度主办银行主权风险注册资本逐步到位逐步取消抓大放小专款专用转贷转轨经济转机转折关头准财政赤字准货币资本不足资本利润率资本账户可兑换资不抵债资产负债表资产负债率资产集中资产贡献率资产利润率资产质量资产组合资金成本资金到位资金宽裕资金利用率资金缺口资金体外循环资金占压自筹投资项目自有资金综合国力综合效益指标综合治理总成交额总交易量总成本所有者权益逃税(请见“避税”)套汇剔除季节性因素调节流动性贴现窗口同比同业拆借(放)同业拆借市场利率(中国)同业融通票据同业往来透支退税头寸吞吐基础货币脱媒现象外部审计外国直接投资外汇储备外汇调剂外汇占款外向型经济外债外资企业完善现代企业制度完税凭证违法经营委托存款稳健的银行系统稳中求进无纸交易物价监测吸纳流动性稀缺经济洗钱系统内调度系统性金融危机下岗工人下游企业现场稽核现金滞留(居民手中)乡镇企业消费物价指数消费税消灭财政赤字销货款回笼销售平淡协议外资金额新经济增长点新开工项目新增贷款新增就业位置信贷规模考核信号失真信托投资公司信息不对称信息反馈信息共享系统信息披露信用扩张信用评级姓“资”还是姓“社”行政措施需求膨胀虚伪存款削减冗员寻租迅速反弹养老基金一刀切一级市场应收未收利息银行网点赢利能力营业税硬贷款(商业贷款)用地审批有管理的浮动汇率证券投资游资(热钱)有市场的产品有效供给诱发新一轮经济扩张逾期贷款与国际惯例接轨与国际市场接轨预算外支出(收入)预调月环比再贷款在国际金融机构储备头寸在人行存款在途资金增加农业投入增势减缓增收节支措施增长平稳增值税涨幅偏高账外账折旧整顿政策工具政策性业务政策性银行政策组合政府干预证券交易清算证券业务占款支付困难支付能力直接调控方式向间接调控方式转变职能转换职业道德指令性措施指令性计划制定和实施货币政策滞后影响中介机构中央与地方财政分灶吃饭重点建设周期谷底周转速度主办银行主权风险注册资本逐步到位逐步取消抓大放小专款专用转贷转轨经济转机转折关头准财政赤字准货币资本不足资本充足率资本利润率资本账户可兑换资不抵债资产负债表资产负债率资产集中资产贡献率资产利润率资产质量资产组合资金成本资金到位资金宽裕资金利用率资金缺口资金体外循环资金占压自筹投资项目自有资金综合国力综合效益指标综合治理总成交额总交易量总成本最后贷款人最后贷款人safety neton comparable basisto prioritizeimplicit subsidyhidden lossto license;to grant a licence toto take depositsto protect farmers'incentive to produceexcess reservesconsolidation of domestic and foreign currencyaccountssterilization operationlocalized interest;departmentalismto strive to prosper;to strive to become well-to-dotax avoidancecurrency mismatchcurrency compositiondisguised irregular(or illegal) fund raisingoff-balance-sheet items(operation)weaknesses;loopholesfixed costat constant price;in real termsreal estateproblem loans;non-performing loans(assets)finance companiesfiscal deficitfiscal pressure on the central bank(over monetary policy)coordination of fiscal and monetary policiesin a phased and sequenced manneroperational flexibilityto manipulate exchange rateproduct composition;product mixstock pile;excessive inventorycurrent period inventory;(即期库存,不含前期库存)sales/output ratiomarketabilityindustrial policytreasury bondsopen positionto speculate in the stock marketunderwrite(securities)complete sets of equipment; complete plant(s)urban credit cooperatives(UCCs)urban cooperative banks; municipal united banksmunicipal commercial banksreal growth in household incomepersistent overheatingduplicate projectsreplacement costrestructuring planfunding sources;financing channelsinitial successcanalization of exportsexport tax rebatehousehold deposits(不完全等同于西方savingsdeposits,前者包括活期存款,后者不包括。
金融英语试题及答案一、选择题(每题2分,共20分)1. The term "equity" in finance refers to:A. DebtB. Ownership interest in a companyC. A type of loanD. A financial statement2. Which of the following is not a type of financial derivative?A. FuturesB. OptionsC. StocksD. Swaps3. The process of evaluating the creditworthiness of a borrower is known as:A. Credit analysisB. Market analysisC. Risk managementD. Portfolio management4. In the context of finance, what does "leverage" mean?A. The use of borrowed funds to increase the potential return of an investmentB. The ratio of a company's assets to its liabilitiesC. The process of selling securities to the publicD. The ability to buy or sell securities without owningthem5. A bond that pays no periodic interest but is issued at a discount to its face value is called:A. A zero-coupon bondB. A coupon bondC. A convertible bondD. A junk bond6. Which of the following is a measure of a company's ability to meet its short-term obligations?A. Current ratioB. Debt-to-equity ratioC. Return on equity (ROE)D. Earnings per share (EPS)7. The term structure of interest rates refers to the relationship between:A. The risk of an investment and its expected returnB. The maturity of a debt instrument and its yieldC. The size of a company and its market shareD. The economic cycle and the stock market performance8. A financial instrument that allows the holder to buy or sell an asset at a specified price within a specific time period is known as:A. A futureB. A forwardC. An optionD. A swap9. In finance, the term "carry trade" refers to:A. Borrowing money at a low interest rate to invest in a higher-yielding assetB. The practice of selling securities shortC. The strategy of buying and holding stocks for long periodsD. The process of hedging against currency fluctuations10. The primary market is where:A. Securities are first offered to the publicB. Securities are traded after they have been issuedC. Companies buy back their own sharesD. Investors can purchase commodities二、填空题(每空1分,共10分)11. The ________ is the difference between the bid price and the ask price of a security.12. A ________ is a financial institution that accepts deposits and provides loans.13. The ________ is the process of buying and selling securities on the same day.14. The ________ is the risk that the value of an asset will decrease due to market conditions.15. A ________ is a financial statement that shows a company's financial performance over a specific period.16. The ________ is the risk that a borrower will not repay a loan.17. A ________ is a type of investment fund that pools money from many investors to purchase a diversified portfolio of assets.18. The ________ is the potential for an asset's value toincrease or decrease.19. The ________ is the process of determining the value of a business or business assets.20. A ________ is a financial instrument that represents ownership in a company.三、简答题(每题5分,共30分)21. Explain the concept of "leverage" in finance.22. What is the difference between a "mutual fund" and a "hedge fund"?23. Describe the role of a "stock exchange" in the financial markets.24. What is "risk management" and why is it important in finance?四、论述题(每题20分,共40分)25. Discuss the impact of "inflation" on different types of investments.26. Analyze the importance of "corporate governance" in ensuring the long-term success of a company.答案:一、1. B2. C3. A4. A5. A6. A7. B8. C9. A10. A二、11. Spread12. Bank13. Day trading14. Market risk15. Income statement16. Credit risk17. Mutual fund18. Volatility19. Valuation20. Stock三、21. Leverage in finance refers to the use of borrowed money to finance investments, with the goal of increasing potential returns. However, it。
Chapter 9International Financial Statement AnalysisDiscussion Questions1. a. Business strategy analysisDifficulties in cross-border business strategy analysis: Identifying key profit drivers and business risk in two or more countries can be daunting. Business and legal environments and corporate objectives vary around the world. Many risks (such as regulatory risk, foreign exchange risk, and credit risk) need to be evaluated and brought together coherently. In some countries, sources of information are limited and may not be accurate.b. Accounting analysisDifficulties in accounting analysis: Two issues are important here. The first is cross-country variation in accounting measurement quality, disclosure quality, and audit quality. National characteristics that cause this variation include required and generally accepted practices, monitoring and enforcement, and extent in managerial discretion in financial reporting. The second issue concerns the difficulty in obtaining information needed to conduct accounting analysis. The level of credibility and rigor of financial reporting in Anglo-American countries generally is much higher than that found elsewhere. In fact, financial reporting quality can be surprisingly low in both developed and emerging-market countries.c. Financial analysis (ratio analysis and cash flow analysis)Difficulties in financial analysis: Extensive evidence reveals substantial cross-country differences in profitability, leverage, and other financial statement ratios and amounts that result from both accounting and non-accounting factors. Differences in financial statement items caused by national differences in accounting principles can be significant, and unpredictable in amount. Even after financial statement amounts are made reasonably comparable, interpretation of those amounts must consider cross-country differences in economic, competitive, and other conditions.d. Prospective analysis (forecasting and valuation)Difficulties in prospective analysis: Exchange rate fluctuations, accounting differences, different business practices and customs, capital market differences, and many other factors have major effects on international forecasting and valuation. Application of price multiples in a cross-border setting requires that the determinants of each multiple, and reasons why multiples vary across firms, be thoroughly understood. National differences in accounting principles are one source of cross-country variations in these ratios.Finally, all four stages of business analysis may be affected by:i. information access,ii. timeliness of informationiii. foreign currency issuesiv. differences in financial statement formatsv. language and terminology barriers.2. Here we will consider the information needs of investors, creditors, regulators, and competitors.Investors have high information needs at all stages of business analysis. They need to be able to accurately assess the merits of the company’s business strategy, the quality of its accounting, the company’s financial strength, and its future prospects. Since each step in the business analysis process builds on its predecessors, each step is critical in its turn. It can’t be said that any one step is more or less important than the others.Creditors need to go through much the same analysis, but are advantaged in that through direct contact with the companies they often have more extensive and detailed information than do investors. The goal of analysis is also often somewhat different. Many investors, hoping that their shares will increase in value, are interested in prospective analysis. The creditor’s interest is more often limited to being sure (with a margin of safety) that the loan will be repaid. For the creditor, the accounting analysis, financial analysis, and forecasting, all are important; valuation is less so. Regulators have much different interests. Since regulators have no direct interest in the future earnings of the companies they regulate, a prospective analysis (in most cases) is of limited value to them. However, if regulators need to be aware of the financial strength of the companies they regulate, they will need to conduct accounting analysis and (in many cases) financial analysis, particularly when assessing how much of an economic burden can be imposed on companies resulting from a particular regulation.Competitors are intensely interested in finding out as much about a company as possible. Business strategy analysis of one’s competitors is an important part of formulating one’s own business strategy, especially in terms of assessing strengths and weaknesses. Accounting and financial analysis also can uncover strengths and weaknesses. Prospective analysis may be important if a merger or acquisition is contemplated.3. Information accessibility is a major condition for an efficient capital market, that is, information must be rapidly analyzed and made available to investors capable of acting on it. In the United States and other broadly-based financial markets, a whole industry specializing in information analysis and dissemination has developed. Similar investment analysis services in many non-U.S. capital markets are at an earlier stage of development.4. Investment analysis almost always involves paired comparisons, even if the benchmark alternative is to do nothing. In evaluating the risk and return characteristics of a non-domestic company differences in accounting measures of risk and return are often due as much to differences in measurement rules between countries as they are to real economic differences. Corporate transparency compounds the problem by depriving analysts of information necessary to adjust for national measurement differences. Many analysts consider the disclosure issue to be even more important than measurement differences.5. One way of coping with GAAP differences is to restate foreign accounting measures to an internationally recognized set of principles or the reporting framework of the investor’s home country. An alternative tack is to develop a detailed understanding of accounting practices in the investee’s country.Students will definitely disagree on this one. Eventually some will offer a compromise: use the former coping mechanism if the investee company is being compared with a firm in the investor’s home country and adopt a “multiple principles capability” when comparing the investee company to another company in the same country. Another tack would be to examine who is making the market for the investee’s shares. If local investors are making th e market, one should not ignore local norms. However, if investors in the investor’s country are making the market; e.g., U.S. institutional investors, then restatement to the investor’s home country GAAP makes sense.6. Prospective analysis invo lves forecasting a firm’s future cash flows and then valuing those cash flows. As future cash flow estimates are based on accounting measurements, differences in measurement rules between countries complicate this effort. The range of accounting choicesavailable abroad add to this complexity. However, measurement differences are only one of the variables that complicates prospective analysis, Differences in environmental variables such as rates of inflation, sovereign risk, business practices, and institutions complicate both forecasting and valuation. Different institutions include financial norms, tax regimes and market enforcement mechanisms. In terms of valuation, while P/E multiples may be popular in one country, discounted dividends may be more popular in another. Even if two countries employ the same valuation framework, differences in investment horizons and methods of calculating discount rates/cost of capital will vary.7. Translation of foreign financial statements for the convenience of domestic readers is fundamentally distinct from the translation of branch or subsidiary accounts for purposes of consolidation. In the latter case, translation involves a remeasurement process. In most countries, foreign accounts first are restated to the accounting principles of the parent country prior to restatement to parent currency. Convenience translations merely involve a restatement process in the sense that foreign accounts are multiplied by a constant to change the currency of denomination fro m domestic currency to the currency of the reader’s domicile.8. Rules of thumb can vary substantially from one country to another due to both accounting and non-accounting factors. Japan provides a striking example. Many Japanese companies are members of large trading groups (keiretsu) with large commercial banks at their core. Keiretsu often postpone interest and principal payments, so that long-term debt in Japan works more like equity in the United States. Short-term debt is attractive to Japanese companies because short-term obligations typically have lower interest rates than long-term obligations, and normally are renewed or “rolled over” rather than repaid. Thus, debt has a much different nature and purposein Japan than in the United States.The acid test ratio specifically involves cash, marketable securities and receivables as the numerator in the equation, and current liabilities as the denominator. But what counts as current liabilities versus long-term debt (or how long-term debt is viewed) is very different in Japan than in the U.S. In Japan, high short-term debt is less likely to indicate a lack of liquidity, for the reasons stated above. Banks often are willing to renew these loans because it allows them to adjust their interest rates to changing market conditions. Thus, short-term debt works like long-term debt elsewhere, and Japanese companies can operate successfully with a quick ratio at a level that would be entirely unacceptable in the United States. Note, however, that banking practices in Japan are changing rapidly, and the tolerance in Japan for high levels of debt financing may well decrease in the future.9. Important recommendations include the following:•Be aware that national differences in accounting measurement rules c an add “noise” to reported performance comparisons. The reader should be prepared to unwind accounting differences where necessary.•Use a structured approach, such as the one presented in this chapter, to ensure that all relevant factors are considered.•Cash flow-related measures are less affected by accounting principle differences than are earnings-based measures, thus making them potentially valuable in international analysis.•Audit quality varies dramatically across countries. Become familiar with the level of audit quality in a particular country before reaching conclusions using financialstatements prepared by companies in that country.•Corporate transparency also varies dramatically across countries. Be sure to assess accurately the quality of financial disclosures before reaching conclusions based on them.•Above all, appreciate that measurement and disclosure practices are environmentally based. Appreciation for institutional differences will greatly aid in proper interpretation of accounting based performance and risk measures.10. The following list describes in general fashion what probable effect the Dutch translation practice would have on selected financial ratios in comparison with the temporal method. The analysis assumes that the original financial statements of the two companies are identical in all respects save for the currency translation method used. Inventories are assumed to be carried at cost._________________________________ _______________________________________________ Devaluation ___ R evaluationCurrent ratio (liquidity) decrease increaseInv. At mkt goes downInv at mkt goes upDebt ratio (solvency) increase decreaseLoss goes in ATA so eq. smallerGain in ata eq lrg.Fixed asset turnover (efficiency) increase decreaseNet sales/assets assets smaller so inc.A ssets larger so dec.Return on assets (profitability) increase decreaseloss not in incomeGain not in incomeAs can be seen, the current rate method can have a significant effect on key financial indicators. Accordingly, security analysts must be careful to distinguish between the currency in which a foreign account is denominated and the currency in which it is measured.11. The attest function is what gives credibility to the financial statements. If this function is important in the domestic case, it is even more important internationally where statement readers are separated from the companies they are interested in not only by physical distance but also by cultural distance.12. Internal control is an activity performed by a firm’s int ernal auditors that helps to assure that management’s policies and procedures are being carried out effectively, that financial transactions are being properly reported both internally and externally and that the assets of the firm are safeguarded. Intern al control is relied upon by a firm’s external auditors in determining to what extent their work should replicate the work of the internal auditor. The role of the internal auditor has become even more important in assuring the reliability of management’s financial representations owing to the large number of financial scandals that has rocked the U.S. and other financial markets during the start of this decade. Recent legislation in the U.S., which is increasingly being emulated elsewhere, has made management responsible for assuring that their system of internal controls are not only in place but are working well. This has beennecessary to reduce investor uncertainty regarding the quality and reliability of a firm’s published financial accounts.In the absence of a strong system of internal controls, investors will adopt a more passive approach to investing as opposed to relying on firm-specific information. This involves taking a mutual fund approach to investing which attempts to diversify away information risk, although at the cost of lesser performance.Exercises1. The trend of dividends from a U.S. dollar perspective can be ascertained by translating the peso dividend stream using the $/P exchange rate prevailing at the beginning of the time series or the end. Use of the ending exchange rate provides the following trend data:20X6 ________ 20X7 ________ 20X8 ______Net income (P) 8,500 10,800 15,900Dividends (P mill’s)2,550 3,240 4.770Dividends ($000) 850 1,080 1,590Percentage change --- 27.1% 47.2%2.How the statement of cash flows appearing in Exhibit 9.5 was derived:Beg. Bal. DR. CR. End. Bal.Cash 2,400 3.990New fixed assets 8,500 (3) 2,695 (2) 555 10,640ST $ payable 500 500LT debt 4,800 (3) 1,584 6,384Capital stock 3,818 3,818Retained earnings 1,782 (1) 250 2,030Translation adjustment 1,898Sources Usesof ofFunds FundsSources:Net income (1) 250Depreciation (2) 555Increase in LT debt (3) 1,584Translation adjustment (4) 1,898Uses of funds:Increase in fixed assets (3) 2,6954,287 2,695Net increase in cash 1,5924,287 4,2873. Consolidated Funds Statement(figures appearing in parentheses denote changes due primarily to translation effects) Sources:Net income 250Depreciation 555Increase in LT debt 1,584 (1,584)Translation adjustment 1,898 (1,898)less intercompany payable 138Uses of funds:Increase in fixed assets 2,695 (2,695)Net increase in cash 1,590 (924) The $924 translation effect is that part of the $1,898 gain on the translation of net worth which is related to the translation of cash. It is derived as follows.a. Opening cash of 24,000 krona translated at .10 =$2,400Opening cash retranslated at 12/31 at .133 = 3,192Gain 792b. 6,000 krona increase in cash during the yearinitially translated at .111 =$6666,000 krona retranslated at 12/31 at .133 = 798Gain 132Total translation gain applicable to cash 9244. Yes, Infosys added value for its shareholders as its EVA was a positive RPE 1,540. Operating income more than covered the company’s cost of debt and equity.5. Debit: Cost of goods sold ¥250,000,000Taxes payable 87,500,000Credit Inventories ¥250,000,000Tax expense 87,500,0006. a.20X6 20X7 20X8Sales revenue (£) 23,500 28,650 33,160Sales revenue ($) 49,350 63,030 53,056b. Percentage change 20X7/20X6 20X8/20X7Pounds 21.9% 15.7%Dollars 27.8% -15.8%The two time series do not move in parallel fashion because of changes in exchange rates used to perform the convenience translations.c. This problem can be minimized by translating the time series using the 20X6 exchange rate or by using the 20X8 exchange rate. Trend analysis can also be performed in the local currency.7. a. ROE (per Swedish GAAP) = 4,709/88,338 = 5.3%ROE (per U.S. GAAP) = 3,127/84,761 = 3.7%b. Some students will favor using the ROE based on Swedish GAAP, especially if Volvo’sperformance is being compared with that of another company in Sweden. Others willfavor basing their performance assessment on ROE per U.S. GAAP, especially if Volvois being compared to a U.S. counterpart. The latter at least minimizes the apples tooranges issue. It is not clear which viewpoint is correct, and this question should provoke good discussion of the value of restated accounting numbers.c. Even if students all agreed that an ROE based on U.S. GAAP were preferable, the user ofthis information should take into account all institutional considerations, such asdifferences in tax laws, financial norms and business practices that affect all ratios in the Swedish business environment. In the absence of such analysis, restated ratios are likely to be misinterpreted.8. Assessing reasons for P/E ratio trends and cross-country comparisons is difficult. Thetext discusses two studies that have analyzed differences in P/E ratios between Japan and the United States in the late 1980s. The studies differ greatly in their explanations of the(then) much higher Japanese P/E ratios, and neither study claims to explain more than apart of the difference. Part but not all of the reasons were attributable to accountingmeasurement differences. We suspect that differences in institutional factors probablyexert the dominant reason for observed differences internationally.9. Students answers will naturally vary. However, they should recognize that audit practiceare influenced as much by differences in social, economic and political environments as are measurement standards. They should also recognize that standard setting is as mucha political process as it is a process of logic or sound principles.10. Judging from information provided in Exhibit 9-22, liability cases vary far more bycountry than by auditor – with 35 cases in the U,.S., over twice as many as in the nexthighest country (the U.K., with 17). No audit firms had cases in every country, and thetotal number for each auditor is relatively similar, ranging from 11 (Arthur Andersen) to18 (KPMG). The country where liability cases were least frequent was the Netherlands,with only one case.Why? Laws and regulations in the Anglo-American countries, including the UnitedStates, stress investor protection. This places more liability on the auditor and makes iteasier for companies or shareholders to bring or prove a suit. In response to the threat of litigation, auditors are probably more careful in the United States, and more willing tosubject themselves to strict regulations.Implications? It is reasonable to argue that financial reporting quality is positivelycorrelated with frequency of audit litigation. For example, the patterns of auditorlitigation shown in the table above are consistent with the relatively high financialreporting quality found in the U.S., the U.K., Australia and Canada.11. Student opinions are likely to vary on this one as well. Some will argue for opinionscoined by private professional bodies. Others, in light of Enron, et. al., will opt for more legal opinions. In the end, students should conclude that enforcement mechanisms arealso very important. Recent U.S. indictments of company officers for accountingviolations as well as mandated prison terms is unprecedented. Together with increasing recourse to the courts by aggrieved investors, the imbalance between an auditor’sresponsibility and authority is being redressed.12. Reasonable criteria for judging the merits of a database for company research include(but are not limited to):-coverage (number of companies, countries, years of data).-amount of information for each company (number of financial, market-based measures per company).-reliability, ease of use, language translations, search features.-cost (a re only some of the data “freely available?”).-access and links to other Web sites provided?Case 9-1Sandvik1.a. There are several advantages that accrue to Swedish firms employing the system of special reserves. First, political dividends accrue to firms that align their goals with those of the government. Second, there are tax advantages as expenses recognized in establishing a reserve are tax deductible. Third, the use of reserving allows companies to manage their earnings. Disadvantages include the risk of reducing a company’s reporting credibility with the international investing community. This, in turn, may limit the company’s external financing flexibility.2. The government benefits from the reserving system in that it has ally in maintaining full employment. That is to say, its macroeconomic tool kit is expanded in that it yet another vehicle for managing the economy in addition to monetary and fiscal policy.3. The use of reserves makes it difficult for statement readers who are unfamiliar with Swedish reporting practices to assess the risk and return attributes of the firm. For example, it will not be clear to what extent observed differences in financial ratios between a Swedishcompany and a non-Swedish company are due to accounting differences as opposed to real economic differences in the attributes being measured.4. The use of reserves had a dampening effect on Sandvik’s reported earnings.5. The entries used to increase the reserves can be determined by examining the change in Untaxed Reserves in the balance sheet as well as examining the relevant notes to the financial statements. The entries were:Depreciation expense 172Excess depreciation reserve 172Other expenses 13Other untaxed reserves 136. With reserves Without reservesROS 3,731/15,242 3,731 + 185(1-.03)/15,242= 24.5% = 25.7%ROA 3,731 + 1 + 633 3,731 + 1 + 633 + 185(38,142 + 22,286)/ 2 [(38,142 – 185) + (22,286 + 85)] /2= 14.4% = 15.1%Case 9-2Continental A.G.Students will first gravitate to the notes to the financial statements dealing with Special Reserves and Provisions. Their instincts are correct. The problem facing an external analyst is that it is difficult to determine which of the reserve and provision items are legitimate and which are not. It turns out that two important keys to this case are to be found in footnotes 21 and 22. Focusing on the consolidated figures, we see that Continental is using entries under Other operating income and Other operating expenses to smooth reported earnings. The following analysis backs out 1) Credit to income from the reversal of provisions, 2) Credit to income from the reduction of the general bad debt reserve, and 3) Credit to income from the reversal of special reserves appearing in note 21 and Allocation to special reserves under note 22.Adjustments:19X9Operating income DM68,029Provisions DM33,559General B/D Reserve 2,014Special reserve 32,456Special reserves 1,278Operating income 1,27820X0Operating income DM57,237Provisions DM17,312General B/D Reserves 1,101Special Reserves 38,824Special Reserves 168Operating income 168To determine the net overstatement on an after-tax basis, the students should attempt to approximate Continental’s effective tax rate. Information to do this are contained in footnote 24 and Continental’s income statement.Effective Taxes: 19X9 20X0Income tax 141,476 59,884Income after tax 227,838 93,435Income before tax 369,314 153,319Effective rate: 141,476/369,314 59,884/153,319= 39% = 39%Reduction in taxes:66,751 X .39 57,069 X .39= 26,033 = 22,257Net overstatement:66,751 57,069-26,033 -22,25740,718 34,812This overstatement, as a percentage of reported consolidated earnings, was 18% for 19X9and 37% for 20X0. Dietrich and Marissa have cau se to pay Continental’s CFO a visit.。
会计英语基础试题及答案一、单项选择题(每题2分,共20分)1. The term "accounting" refers to:A. The process of recording, summarizing, analyzing, and interpreting financial informationB. The science of cookingC. The study of plantsD. The practice of law答案:A2. Which of the following is not a financial statement?A. Balance SheetB. Income StatementC. Cash Flow StatementD. Payroll Report答案:D3. The process of identifying, measuring, and communicating economic information is known as:A. AuditingB. BudgetingC. AccountingD. Taxation答案:C4. What is the purpose of an income statement?A. To show the financial position of a company at a specific point in timeB. To show the changes in equity of a company over a period of timeC. To show the results of a company's operations over a period of timeD. To show the cash inflows and outflows of a company over a period of time答案:C5. The accounting equation is:A. Assets = Liabilities + EquityB. Assets - Liabilities = EquityC. Liabilities - Equity = AssetsD. Equity - Assets = Liabilities答案:A6. Which of the following is an example of a tangible asset?A. GoodwillB. PatentsC. MachineryD. Trademarks答案:C7. The term "double-entry bookkeeping" refers to the practice of:A. Recording transactions in two different accountsB. Recording transactions in two different ledgersC. Recording each transaction with a corresponding debit and creditD. Recording each transaction with a corresponding increase and decrease答案:C8. The accounting principle that requires companies to match expenses with revenues in the same period is known as:A. The matching principleB. The accrual basis of accountingC. The cash basis of accountingD. The historical cost principle答案:A9. What is the purpose of depreciation?A. To increase the value of an assetB. To reduce the value of an asset over timeC. To dispose of an assetD. To sell an asset答案:B10. The process of adjusting the accounts at the end of an accounting period to ensure they reflect the actual financial position of the company is called:A. Closing the booksB. Adjusting entriesC. AuditingD. Budgeting答案:B二、多项选择题(每题3分,共15分)1. Which of the following are considered current assets? (Choose all that apply)A. CashB. Accounts ReceivableC. InventoryD. Land答案:A, B, C2. The following are examples of liabilities except:A. Accounts PayableB. Bonds PayableC. Common StockD. Long-term Debt答案:C3. The accrual basis of accounting is different from the cash basis of accounting in that it:A. Recognizes revenues when cash is receivedB. Recognizes revenues when earnedC. Recognizes expenses when cash is paidD. Recognizes expenses when incurred答案:B, D4. Which of the following are considered as equity accounts? (Choose all that apply)A. Retained EarningsB. Common StockC. DividendsD. Treasury Stock答案:A, B, D5. The following are examples of adjusting entries except:A. Accrued RevenueB. Accrued ExpensesC. Prepaid ExpensesD. Depreciation Expense答案:C三、填空题(每题2分,共20分)1. The basic accounting equation is _______ = _______ +_______.答案:Assets, Liabilities, Equity2. The two main types of business entities are _______ and_______.答案:Sole Proprietorship, Corporation3. The process of preparing financial statements is known as _______.答案:Accounting Cycle4. The term used to describe the cost of an asset is _______.答案:Historical Cost5. The accounting principle that requires companies to provide full disclosure in financial reports is known as_______.答案:Full Disclosure Principle6. The _______ statement shows the changes in equity of a company over a period of time.答案:Statement of Changes in Equity7. The _______ statement shows the cash inflows and outflows of a company over a period of time.答案:Cash Flow Statement8. The process of determining the value of an asset is called _______.答案:Valuation9. The _______ principle states that a company should not anticipate revenues or expenses before they are earned or incurred.答案:Cons。
经济学:是研究一个社会如何决定生产,怎样生产和怎样分配的一门社会学科。
Economics:The study of how society decides what gets produced and how, and who gets what.微观经济学:研究个体经济单位如个人、企业的行为决策。
Microeconomics :The branch of economics that studies the behavior of individual decision-making units such as households and business firms.宏观经济学:研究所有的个人、企业作为总体货总量时的行为决策。
Macroeconomics :The branch of economics that studies the aggregate, or total, behavior of all households and firms.金融:研究金融体系如何协调并融通借贷资金,以及金融中介在此过程中进行的资金创造。
Finance:The study of how the financial system coordinates and channels the flow of funds from lenders to borrowers—and vice versa—and how new funds are created by financial intermediaries during the borrowing process.放松管制:废除或逐步撤销现有的管制。
Deregulation:The removing or phasing out of existing regulations.货币:可以接受且通常用来交换商品和服务的交换工具。
Money:Something acceptable and generally used as payment for goods and services.储蓄:收入中未被消费的部分。
Credit Spreads and Business Cycle FluctuationsSimon Gilchrist∗Egon Zakrajˇs ek†June16,2010AbstractThis paper re-examines the evidence on the relationship between credit spreads and economic activity.We construct a new credit spread index,employing an extensivemicro-level data set of secondary market prices of outstanding senior unsecured bondsover the1973–pared with the standard default-risk and otherfinan-cial indicators,our credit spread index is a robust predictor of future economic growthacross a variety of economic indicators,sample periods,and forecast ingan empirical bond-pricing framework,we also decompose our credit spread index into apredictable component that captures the availablefirm-specific information on expecteddefaults and a residual component—the excess bond premium—which we argue reflectsthe price of default risk rather than the risk of default.Our results indicate that a sub-stantial portion of the predictive content of credit spreads for economic activity is dueto the excess bond premium.Shocks to the excess bond premium that are orthogonalto the current state of the economy,the Treasury term structure,and stock returns areshown to cause significant declines in consumption,investment,and output as well asin equity prices.Overall,ourfindings are consistent with the notion that an increasein the excess bond premium reflects a reduction in the risk appetite of thefinancialsector and,as a result,a contraction in the supply of credit with significant adverseconsequences for the macroeconomy.JEL Classification:E32,E44,G12Keywords:corporate credit spreads,default-risk premium,economicfluctuations We thank Eric Swanson,Jonathan Wright,and participants at the2010CEGE Conference on FinancialShocks and the Real Economy for helpful comments and suggestions.Robert Kurtzman and Michael Levere provided outstanding research assistance.The views expressed in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Board of Governors of the FederalReserve System or of anyone else associated with the Federal Reserve System.∗Department of Economics Boston University and NBER.E-mail:sgilchri@†Division of Monetary Affairs,Federal Reserve Board.E-mail:egon.zakrajsek@1IntroductionBetween the summer of2007and the spring of2009,the U.S.economy was gripped by an acute liquidity and credit crunch,by all accounts,the most severefinancial crisis since the Great Depression.At the height of the crisis in the autumn of2008,the government,in an attempt to prevent thefinancial meltdown from engulfing the real economy,effectively assumed control of a number of systemically importantfinancial institution;the Congress, faced with investors’rapidly deteriorating confidence in thefinancial sector,approved the plan to inject a massive amount of capital into the banking system;and the Federal Reserve dramatically expanded the number of emergency credit and liquidity facilities in an attempt to support the functioning of private debt markets.Throughout this period of extremefinancial turmoil,credit spreads—the difference in yields between various private debt instruments and government securities of comparable maturity—served as a crucial gauge of the degree of strains in thefinancial system.In addi-tion,the movements in credit spreads were thought to contain important signals regarding the evolution of the real economy and risks to the economic outlook,a view supported by the insights from the large literature on the predictive content of credit spreads—or asset prices more generally—for future economic activity.1The focus on credit spreads is motivated,in part,byfinancial theories that depart from the Modigliani and Miller[1958]paradigm of frictionlessfinancial markets,theories that emphasize linkages between the quality of borrowers’balance sheets and their access to externalfinance.Movements in credit spreads may also reflect shifts in the effective supply of funds offered byfinancial intermediaries,which,in the presence offinancial market frictions,have important implications for the usefulness of credit spreads as predictors of future economic activity.In the latter case,a deterioration in the balance sheets offinancial intermediaries leads to a reduction in the supply of credit,causing an increase in the cost of debtfinance—the widening of credit spreads—and a subsequent reduction in spending and production.In either case,credit spreads play a crucial role in the dynamic interaction offinancial conditions with the real economy.In this paper,we re-examine the evidence on the relationship between corporate bond credit spreads and economic activity.To do so,wefirst construct a credit spread index—the“GZ credit spread”—that has considerable predictive power for economic activity.Our 1Financial indicators considered in this vast literature include stock prices(Fama[1981]and Harvey [1989]);spreads between long and short-term risk-free interest rates(Harvey[1988];Estrella and Hardouvelis [1991];Estrella and Mishkin[1998];and Hamilton and Kim[2002]);the term structure of interest rates more generally(Ang et al.[2006]);spreads between rates on short-term commercial paper and rates on Treasury bills(Bernanke[1990];Friedman and Kuttner[1992,1998];and Emery[1999]);and yield spreads on longer-term corporate debt(Gertler and Lown[1999];Mody and Taylor[2004];King et al.[2007];Mueller[2007]; Gilchrist et al.[2009];and Faust et al.[2010]).approach builds on the recent work of Gilchrist et al.[2009](GYZ hereafter),in that we use prices of individual corporate bonds traded in the secondary market to construct this high-information content credit spread.According to our forecasting results,the predictive ability of the GZ credit spread for economic activity significantly exceeds that of the widely-used default-risk indicators such as the standard Baa-Aaa corporate bond credit spread and the“paper-bill”spread.Moreover,in predicting the volatile cyclical components of aggregate demand such as businessfixed and inventory investment,the GZ credit spread significantly outperforms the standard indicators of the stance of monetary policy(e.g.,the shape of the Treasury yield curve or the real federal funds rate).As shown recently by Philippon[2009],the predictive content of corporate bond credit spreads for economic activity could reflect—absent anyfinancial market frictions—the abil-ity of the bond market to signal more accurately than the stock market a decline in eco-nomic fundamentals resulting from a reduction in the expected present-value of corporate cashflows prior to a cyclical downturn.To address this issue,we use aflexible empiri-cal bond-pricing framework to decompose the GZ credit spread into two components:a component capturing the usual countercyclical movements in expected defaults;and a com-ponent representing the cyclical changes in the relationship between default risk and credit spreads—the so-called excess bond premium.We then examine the extent to which the forecasting power of the GZ credit spread is due to the measurable default component or the excess bond premium.Our decomposition is motivated in part by the existence of the“credit spread puzzle,”the well-known result from the corporatefinance literature showing that less than one-half of the variation in corporate bond credit spreads can be attributed to thefinancial health of the issuer(e.g.,Elton et al.[2001]).As shown by Collin-Dufresne et al.[2001], Houwelling et al.[2005],Driessen[2005],and Duffie et al.[2007],the unexplained portion of the variation in credit spreads appears to reflect some combination of time-varying liquidity premium,to some extent the tax treatment of corporate bonds,and,most importantly for our purposes,a default-risk factor.2Our results indicate that a substantial portion of 2Although corporate bonds are actively traded,the volume of transactions is far lower and transaction costs are much higher than in the Treasury market(e.g.,Edwards et al.[2007]).Because the information content of prices tends to be lower for less actively traded securities and liquidity is an attractive feature of an asset class,the compensation for liquidity risk shows up in higher corporate bond credit spreads over otherwise comparable Treasuries.Relative to Treasuries,corporate bonds are also at a tax disadvantage, because their interest is taxed at the federal and state levels,whereas the interest earned on Treasuries is subject only to taxes at the federal level.This differential tax treatment should bias the prices of corporate bonds downward in order to equalize the after-tax return across the two asses classes.The implications of this tax effect for the ability of credit spreads to forecast economic activity,however,are likely to be negligible,because the marginal investor in the corporate cash market are banks,pension funds,insurance companies,and other institutional investors—that is,legal entities for which there is no difference in the tax treatment of interest income received from corporate bonds and Treasuries.In addition,major changes in tax laws are infrequent and unrelated to the large cyclical swings in corporate bond credit spreads.the information content of the GZ credit spread can be attributed to the deviations in the pricing of corporate bonds relative to the expected default risk of the issuer.Thisfinding suggests that changes in investor risk attitudes embedded in prices of corporate bonds may account for a significant fraction of the forecasting power of credit spreads for economic activity.We examine the implications of thisfinding using an identified vector autoregression (VAR)framework.According to our analysis,shocks to the excess bond premium that are orthogonal to the current state of the economy,the Treasury term structure,and stock market returns cause economically and statistically significant declines in consumption, investment,and output as well as in equity prices.The confluence of our results is consistent with the notion that an increase in the excess bond premium reflects a reduction in the risk appetite of thefinancial sector and,as a result,a contraction in the supply of credit. Consistent with thefinancial accelerator mechanisms emphasized by Kiyotaki and Moore [1997],Bernanke et al.[1999],and Hall[2010],this reduction in credit availability augurs a change infinancial conditions with significant adverse consequences for macroeconomic outcomes.The remainder of the paper is organized as follows.Section2describes the construc-tion of our high-information content credit spread index.In Section3,we compare the forecasting power of the GZ credit spread to that of some standardfinancial indicators. In Section4,we describe the methodology for decomposing credit spreads into a predicted component due to expected defaults and the excess bond premium.In Section5,we evalu-ate the relative forecasting ability of the default component and the excess bond premium for future economic activity;we also analyze the effect offinancial shocks—identified by orthogonalized movements in the excess bond premium—on the macroeconomy.Section6 concludes.2A High-Information Content Credit Spread IndexAcademics,business economists,and policymakers have long relied on credit spreads to gauge the degree of strains in thefinancial system.In addition,the forward-looking nature offinancial markets should cause the information about investors’expectations of future economic outcomes to become embedded in asset prices,though obtaining an accurate reading of this information can be greatly complicated by the presence of time-varying risk premiums.Nonetheless,credit spreads on corporate debt instruments have been shown to be particularly useful for forecasting economic activity.Results from this strand of research, however,are often sensitive to the choice of a credit spread index under consideration.In particular,credit spreads that contained useful information about economic outcomes in thepast often lose their predictive power for the subsequent cyclical downturn.3These mixed results are partly attributable to the rapid pace offinancial innovation that likely alters the forecasting power offinancial asset prices over time or results in one-offdevelopments that may account for most of the forecasting power of a givenfinancial indicator.In part to address these problems,GYZ utilized secondary market prices of individual senior unsecured corporate bonds over the1990–2007period to construct a broad array of credit spread indexes that vary across maturity and default risk.As pointed out by GYZ,senior unsecured bonds,compared with other corporate debt instruments,represent a class of securities with a relatively long history containing a number of business cycles; moreover,the rapid pace offinancial innovation over the past several decades has done little to alter the basic structure of these securities.Thus,the information content of spreads constructed from yields on senior unsecured corporate bonds is likely to provide more consistent signals regarding economic outcomes relative to spreads based on securities with a shorter history or securities whose structure or the relevant market has undergone a significant structural change.Indeed,the results of GYZ confirm this conjecture:At forecast horizons associated with business cyclefluctuations,the predictive ability of their portfolio credit spreads significantly exceeds—both in-sample and out-of-sample—that of the commonly-used default-risk indicators,such as the paper-bill spread or the Baa and the high-yield corporate credit spread indexes.2.1Data Sources and MethodsIn this paper,we employ the same“bottom-up”approach to construct a credit spread index with a high-information content for future economic activity.Importantly,we extend the time span of the analysis back to the mid-1970s,thereby covering an appreciably greater number of business cycles,a consideration of particular importance when one is evaluating the predictive ability offinancial indicators for economic activity.Specifically,for a sample of more than1,100U.S.nonfinancialfirms covered by the S&P’s Compustat and the Center for Research in Security Prices(CRSP),month-end secondary market prices of their out-standing securities were obtained from the Lehman/Warga(LW)and Merrill Lynch(ML) databases.4To ensure that we are measuring borrowing costs of differentfirms at the same 3For example,the paper-bill spread has lost much of its forecasting power since the early1990s;indeed, according to Thoma and Gray[1998]and Emery[1999],the predictive content of the paper-bill spread may have reflected a one-time event.Similarly,yield spreads based on indexes of high-yield corporate bonds,which contain information from markets that were not in existence prior to the mid-1980s,have done particularly well at forecasting output growth during the previous decade,according to Gertler and Lown[1999]and Mody and Taylor[2004].Stock and Watson[2003],however,find mixed evidence for the high-yield spread as a leading indicator during this period,largely because it falsely predicted an economic downturn in the autumn of1998.4These two data sources include secondary market prices for a majority of dollar-denominated bonds publicly issued in the U.S.corporate cash market.The ML database is a proprietary data source of dailypoint in their capital structure,we limited our sample to senior unsecured issues with a fixed coupon schedule only.The micro-level aspect of our data allows us to construct credit spreads that are not subject to the“duration mismatch”that plagues most commercially-available credit spread indexes.We do so by constructing for each individual corporate issue a synthetic risk-free security that mimics exactly the cash-flows of the corresponding corporate debt instrument. Specifically,consider a corporate bond k issued byfirm i that at time t is promising a sequence of cash-flows{C(s):s=1,2,...,S},consisting of the regular coupon payments and the repayment of the principle at maturity.The price of this bond is given byP it[k]=Ss=1C(s)D(t s),where D(t)=e−r t t is the discount function in period t.To calculate the price of the corresponding risk-free security—denoted by P f t[k]—we discount the cash-flow sequence {C(s):s=1,2,...,S}using continuously-compounded zero-coupon Treasury yields in period t,obtained from the U.S.Treasury yield curve estimated daily by G¨u rkaynak et al. [2007].The resulting price P f t[k]can then be used to calculate the yield—denoted by y f t[k]—of a hypothetical Treasury security with exactly the same cash-flows as the underlying corporate bond.The resulting credit spread S it[k]=y it[k]−y f t[k],where y it[k]denotes the yield of the corporate bond k,is thus free of the bias that would occur were the spreads computed simply by matching the corporate yield to the estimated yield of a Treasury security of the same maturity.To ensure that our results are not driven by a small number of extreme observations,we eliminated all bond/month observations with credit spreads below5basis points and with spreads greater than3,500basis points.In addition,we dropped from our sample very small corporate issues—those with a par value of less than$1million—and all observations with a remaining term-to-maturity of less than one year or more than30years;calculating spreads for maturities of less than one year and more than30years would involve extrapolating the Treasury yield curve beyond its support.5These selection criteria yielded a sample of 5,937individual securities for the period between January1973and December2009.We matched these corporate securities with their issuer’s quarterly income and balance sheet bond prices that starts in1997.Focused on the most liquid securities in the secondary market,bonds in the ML database must have a remaining term-to-maturity of at least one year,afixed coupon schedule,and a minimum amount outstanding of$100million for below investment-grade and$150million for investment-grade issuers.By contrast,the LW database of month-end bond prices has a somewhat broader coverage and is available from1973through mid-1998(see Warga[1991]for details).5We also eliminated a small number of putable bonds from our sample.In contrast,a significant fraction of the securities in our sample is callable,which raises an important issue of how to separate time-varying prepayment risk from the default risk premium.We address this issue in detail later in the paper.Table1:Summary Statistics of Corporate Bond CharacteristicsBond Characteristic Mean SD Min P50MaxNo.of bonds perfirm/month 2.87 3.54 1.00 2.0074.0Mkt.value of issue a($mil.)311.2313.5 1.22231.75,628Maturity at issue(years)13.09.4 1.010.050.0Term to maturity(years)11.48.5 1.08.330.0Duration(years) 6.59 3.170.91 6.1015.6Credit rating(S&P)--D BBB1AAACoupon rate(pct.)7.34 1.99 1.807.0017.5Nominal effective yield(pct.)7.82 3.22 1.037.2544.3Credit spread(bps.)20128351153,499 Note:Sample period:Jan1973–Dec2009;Obs.=330,029;No.of bonds=5,937;No.of firms=1,111.Sample statistics are based on trimmed data(see text for details).a Market value of the outstanding issue deflated by the CPI(1982–84=100).data from Compustat and daily data on equity valuations from CRSP,yielding a matched sample of1,111firms.Table1contains summary statistics for the key characteristics of bonds in our sample. Note that a typicalfirm in our sample has only a few senior unsecured issues outstanding at any point in time—the medianfirm,for example,has two such issues trading in any given month.This distribution,however,exhibits a significant positive skew,as somefirms can have as many as74different senior unsecured bond issues trading in the market at a point in time.The distribution of the real market values of these issues is similarly skewed,with the range running from$1.2million to more than$5.6billion.Not surprisingly,the maturity of these debt instruments is fairly long,with the average maturity at issue of13years;the average remaining term-to-maturity in our sample is11.4years.However,because corporate bonds typically generate significant cashflow in the form of regular coupon payments,their duration is considerably shorter,with both the average and the median duration of a bit more than6years.According to the S&P credit ratings,our sample spans the entire spectrum of credit quality,from“single D”to“triple A.”At“BBB1,”however,the median observation is still solidly in the investment-grade category.Turning to returns,the(nominal)coupon rate on these bonds averaged7.34percent during our sample period,while the average nominal effective yield was7.82percent per annum.Reflecting the wide range of credit quality, the distribution of nominal yields is quite wide,with the minimum of1.03percent and the maximum of more than44percent.Relative to Treasuries,an average bond in our sample has an expected return of201basis points above the comparable risk-free rate,with the6Other than than the GZ credit spread,all yields are taken from the“Selected Interest Rates”(H.15)All three credit spreads are clearly countercyclical,rising prior to and during economic downturns.Nonetheless,the pair-wise correlations between the three series are fairly small and do not exhibit much of a systematic pattern.For example,the correlation between the paper-bill and the Baa-Aaa spread is0.21,whereas the paper-bill and the GZ spread are slightly negatively correlated,with the correlation coefficient of-0.16.Perhaps not too surprising,the highest correlation,0.37,is between the two corporate bond credit spread indexes.Regarding their variability,the Baa-Aaa and the paper-bill spreads are the least volatile,with the standard deviations of50and67basis points,respectively.7Reflecting its broader coverage,both in terms of credit quality and maturity,the standard deviation of the GZ credit spread—at about100basis points—is considerably higher.3Credit Spreads and Economic ActivityThis section examines the predictive power of the GZ credit spread for various measures of economic activity and compares its forecasting performance with that of several commonly-usedfinancial indicators.Letting Y t denote a measure of economic activity in period t,wedefine∇h Y t+h≡c h ln Y t+h Yt ,where h denotes the forecast horizon and c is a scaling constant that depends on the fre-quency of the data(i.e.,c=1,200for monthly data and c=400for quarterly data).We estimate the following univariate forecasting specification:∇h Y t+h=α+pi=0βi∇Y t−i+γ1TS t+γ2R FF t+γ3CS t+ t+h,(2)where TS t denotes the“term spread”—that is,the slope of the Treasury yield curve,defined as the difference between the three-month constant-maturity Treasury yield and the10-year constant-maturity yield;R FF t denotes the real federal funds rate;CS t denotes a creditstatistical release published by the Federal Reserve Board.Note that the GZ credit spread is measured relative to Treasury yields,whereas the Baa-Aaa spread is defined as the difference between yields on long-term corporate debt instruments of varying credit quality.As emphasized by Duffee[1998],the corporate-Treasury yield spreads can be influenced significantly by time-varying prepayment risk premiums,reflecting the call provisions on corporate issues.According to Duca[1999],corporate bond spread indexes measured relative to the yield on Aaa-rated bonds are more reflective of default risk than those measured relative to comparable-maturity Treasuries.7A significant portion of the volatility in the paper-bill spread reflects year-end funding pressures.These pressures can arise as the maturity of the paper crosses over year-end,and investors demand a premium to hold paper over the turn of the year.Trends in business sector credit quality and the amount of outstanding commercial paper are important determinants of year-end pressures.spread;and t+h is the forecast error.8The forecasting regression(2)is estimated by OLS, and the lag length p of each specification is determined by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC).For the forecasting horizons h>1,the MA(h−1)structure of the error term t+h induced by overlapping observations is taken into account by computing the covariance matrix of regression coefficients according to Hodrick[1992].9Within this framework,we analyze the information content of the three credit spreads shown in Figure1for future economic growth.First,we examine the ability of these credit spreads to forecast the key monthly indicators of economic activity:the growth of private (nonfarm)payroll employment and the growth in manufacturing industrial production. Using quarterly data,we also consider the predictive content of these default-risk indicators for the broadest measure of economic activity,namely the growth rate of real GDP as well as its main components.3.1Forecasting ResultsThe results in Table2detail the predictive power of variousfinancial indicators for the two monthly measures of economic activity.We focus on two forecast horizons:3-and 12-month ahead and report standardized estimates of the coefficients associated with the financial indicators as well as the in-sample goodness-of-fit as measured by the adjusted R2. Thefirst column in each panel of the table contains results from our baseline specification, which includes the term spread and the real federal funds rate,along with the current and p lags of∇Y t,as predictors.Consistent with previousfindings,the shape of the Treasury term structure has significant predictive content for the two economic indicators at both forecast horizons,with aflat or inverted yield curve signalling a slowdown in labor demand and a deceleration in industrial output.The real federal funds rate has some additional predictive power for changes in the labor market conditions at both the3-and12-month forecast horizons but has no explanatory power for the growth of industrial production at either horizon.The remaining three columns in each panel contain results from our baseline speci-fication augmented with the three default-risk indicators.Relative to the baseline,the paper-bill spread forecasts both economic indicators at the3-month horizon;at the year-8In calculating the real federal funds rate,we employ a simplifying assumption that the expected inflation is equal to lagged core PCE inflation.Specifically,real funds rate in period t is defined as the average effective federal funds rate during period t less realized inflation,where realized inflation is given by the log-difference between the core PCE price index in period t−1and its lagged value a year earlier.9Ang and Bekaert[2007]compare the performance of various HAC estimators of standard errors in the context of overlapping observations.According to theirfindings,the standard errors developed by Hodrick [1992]retain the correct size even in relatively small samples.In the case of non-overlapping data(i.e., h=1),our inference is based on the heteroscedasticity-consistent asymptotic covariance matrix(HC3) computed according to MacKinnon and White[1985].Table2:Financial Indicators and Economic Activity(1973–2009)Private Payroll EmploymentFinancial Indicator Forecast Horizon:3months Forecast Horizon:12months Term spread-0.080-0.085-0.084-0.096-0.240-0.241-0.220-0.263[1.92][2.03][2.04][2.34][4.81][4.78][4.72][5.41] Real FFR-0.079-0.009-0.075-0.128-0.122-0.108-0.157-0.208[1.75][0.14][1.62][2.79][2.34][1.71][3.15][4.09] CP-bill spread--0.108----0.023--[2.41][0.68]Baa-Aaa spread---0.019---0.108-[0.49][2.20]GZ spread----0.272----0.462[6.64][14.0] Adj.R20.6610.6680.6610.7050.4320.4310.4410.583Manufacturing Industrial ProductionFinancial Indicator Forecast Horizon:3months Forecast Horizon:12months Term spread-0.144-0.166-0.174-0.186-0.332-0.346-0.323-0.368[2.15][2.48][2.72][2.84][3.95][4.12][3.88][4.44] Real FFR-0.070-0.117-0.048-0.145-0.0990.016-0.107-0.189[0.97][1.28][0.67][2.09][1.08][0.15][1.20][2.14] CP-bill spread--0.285----0.179--[4.23][3.02]Baa-Aaa spread---0.108---0.032-[1.63][0.39]GZ spread----0.353----0.417[4.88][6.06] Adj.R20.2760.3250.2830.3630.2250.2430.2240.363 Note:Sample period:Jan1973–Dec2009.Dependent variable is∇h Y t+h,where Y t denotes the log of an indicator of economic activity in month t and h is the forecast horizon.In addition to the specified financial indicator in month t,each specification also includes a constant,current,and p lags of∇Y t(not reported),where p is determined by the AIC.Entries in the table are the standardized estimates of the OLS coefficients associated with eachfinancial indicator;absolute t-statistics reported in brackets are based on the asymptotic covariance matrix computed according to Hodrick[1992].ahead forecast horizon,in contrast,the paper-bill spread has predictive content only for the growth in industrial production.Note also that the addition of the paper-bill spread—where statistically significant—results only in a modest increase in the adjusted R2relative to the baseline specification.The forecasting ability of the Baa-Aaa spread appears to be equally unimpressive.At the3-month horizon,the coefficients on the Baa-Aaa credit。