R语言线性回归案例数据分析可视化报告在本实验中，我们将查看来自所有30个职业棒球大联盟球队的数据，并检查一个赛季的得分与其他球员统计数据之间的线性关系。
我们的目标是通过图表和数字总结这些关系，以便找出哪个变量（如果有的话）可以帮助我们最好地预测一个赛季中球队的得分情况。
数据用变量at_bats绘制这种关系作为预测。
关系看起来是线性的吗？如果你知道一个团队的at_bats，你会习惯使用线性模型来预测运行次数吗？散点图.如果关系看起来是线性的，我们可以用相关系数来量化关系的强度。
.残差平方和回想一下我们描述单个变量分布的方式。
回想一下，我们讨论了中心，传播和形状等特征。
能够描述两个数值变量（例如上面的runand at_bats）的关系也是有用的。
从前面的练习中查看你的情节，描述这两个变量之间的关系。
确保讨论关系的形式，方向和强度以及任何不寻常的观察。
正如我们用均值和标准差来总结单个变量一样，我们可以通过找出最符合其关联的线来总结这两个变量之间的关系。
使用下面的交互功能来选择您认为通过点云的最佳工作的线路。
# Click two points to make a line.After running this command, you’ll be prompted to click two points on the plot to define a line. Once you’ve done that, the line you specified will be shown in black and the residuals in blue. Note that there are 30 residuals, one for each of the 30 observations. Recall that the residuals are the difference between the observed values and the values predicted by the line:e i=y i−y^i ei=yi−y^iThe most common way to do linear regression is to select the line that minimizes the sum of squared residuals. To visualize the squared residuals, you can rerun the plot command and add the argument showSquares = TRUE.## Click two points to make a line.Note that the output from the plot_ss function provides you with the slope and intercept of your line as well as the sum of squares.Run the function several times. What was the smallest sum of squares that you got? How does it compare to your neighbors?Answer: The smallest sum of squares is 123721.9. It explains the dispersion from mean. The linear modelIt is rather cumbersome to try to get the correct least squares line, i.e. the line that minimizes the sum of squared residuals, through trial and error. Instead we can use the lm function in R to fit the linear model (a.k.a. regression line).The first argument in the function lm is a formula that takes the form y ~ x. Here it can be read that we want to make a linear model of runs as a function of at_bats. The second argument specifies that R should look in the mlb11 data frame to find the runs and at_bats variables.The output of lm is an object that contains all of the information we need about the linear model that was just fit. We can access this information using the summary function.Let’s consider this output piece by piece. First, the formula used to describe the model is shown at the top. After the formula you find the five-number summary of the residuals. The “Coefficients” table shown next is key; its first column displays the linear model’s y-intercept and the coefficient of at_bats. With this table, we can write down the least squares regression line for the linear model:y^=−2789.2429+0.6305∗atbats y^=−2789.2429+0.6305∗atbatsOne last piece of information we will discuss from the summary output is the MultipleR-squared, or more simply, R2R2. The R2R2value represents the proportion of variability in the response variable that is explained by the explanatory variable. For this model, 37.3% of the variability in runs is explained by at-bats.output, write the equation of the regression line. What does the slope tell us in thecontext of the relationship between success of a team and its home runs?Answer: homeruns has positive relationship with runs, which means 1 homeruns increase 1.835 times runs.Prediction and prediction errors Let’s create a scatterplot with the least squares line laid on top.The function abline plots a line based on its slope and intercept. Here, we used a shortcut by providing the model m1, which contains both parameter estimates. This line can be used to predict y y at any value of x x. When predictions are made for values of x x that are beyond the range of the observed data, it is referred to as extrapolation and is not usually recommended. However, predictions made within the range of the data are more reliable. They’re also used to compute the residuals.many runs would he or she predict for a team with 5,578 at-bats? Is this an overestimate or an underestimate, and by how much? In other words, what is the residual for thisprediction?Model diagnosticsTo assess whether the linear model is reliable, we need to check for (1) linearity, (2) nearly normal residuals, and (3) constant variability.Linearity: You already checked if the relationship between runs and at-bats is linear using a scatterplot. We should also verify this condition with a plot of the residuals vs. at-bats. Recall that any code following a # is intended to be a comment that helps understand the code but is ignored by R.6.Is there any apparent pattern in the residuals plot? What does this indicate about the linearity of the relationship between runs and at-bats?Answer: the residuals has normal linearity of the relationship between runs ans at-bats, which mean is 0.Nearly normal residuals: To check this condition, we can look at a histogramor a normal probability plot of the residuals.7.Based on the histogram and the normal probability plot, does the nearly normal residuals condition appear to be met?Answer: Yes.It’s nearly normal.Constant variability:1. Choose another traditional variable from mlb11 that you think might be a goodpredictor of runs. Produce a scatterplot of the two variables and fit a linear model. Ata glance, does there seem to be a linear relationship?Answer: Yes, the scatterplot shows they have a linear relationship..1.How does this relationship compare to the relationship between runs and at_bats?Use the R22 values from the two model summaries to compare. Does your variable seem to predict runs better than at_bats? How can you tell?1. Now that you can summarize the linear relationship between two variables, investigatethe relationships between runs and each of the other five traditional variables. Which variable best predicts runs? Support your conclusion using the graphical andnumerical methods we’ve discussed (for the sake of conciseness, only include output for the best variable, not all five).Answer: The new_obs is the best predicts runs since it has smallest Std. Error, which the points are on or very close to the line.1.Now examine the three newer variables. These are the statistics used by the author of Moneyball to predict a teams success. In general, are they more or less effective at predicting runs that the old variables? Explain using appropriate graphical andnumerical evidence. Of all ten variables we’ve analyzed, which seems to be the best predictor of runs? Using the limited (or not so limited) information you know about these baseball statistics, does your result make sense?Answer: ‘new_slug’ as 87.85% ,‘new_onbase’ as 77.85% ,and ‘new_obs’ as 68.84% are predicte better on ‘runs’ than old variables.1. Check the model diagnostics for the regression model with the variable you decidedwas the best predictor for runs.This is a product of OpenIntro that is released under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported. This lab was adapted for OpenIntro by Andrew Bray and Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel from a lab written by the faculty and TAs of UCLA Statistics.。
