比尔盖茨清华大学演讲：《未来之路：在中国共同创新》(中英)

中英版本比尔盖茨哈佛毕业演讲稿President Bok, former President Rudenstine, incoming President Faust, members of the Harvard Corporation and the Board of Overseers, members of the faculty, parents, and especially, the graduates:尊敬的Bok校长，Rudenstine前校长，即将上任的Faust校长，哈佛集团的各位成员，监管理事会的各位理事，各位老师，各位家长，各位同学：I've been waiting more than 30 years to say this: "Dad, I always told you I'd come back and get my degree."有一句话我等了三十年，现在终于可以说了：“老爸，我总是跟你说，我会回来拿到我的学位的！”I want to thank Harvard for this timely honor. I'll be changing my job next year … and it will be nice to finally have a college degree on my resume.我要感谢哈佛大学在这个时候给我这个荣誉。

明年，我就要换工作了（注：指从微软公司退休）……我终于可以在简历上写我有一个本科学位，这真是不错啊。

I applaud the graduates today for taking a much more direct route to your degrees. For my part, I'm just happy that the Crimson has called me "Harvard's most successful dropout." I guess that makes me valedictorian of my own special class (I)did the best of everyone who failed.我为今天在座的各位同学感到高兴，你们拿到学位可比我简单多了。

比尔盖茨清华演讲(英文)(2007-09-28 13:41:47)Attending to of high regard president, the teacher, the classmates of Chin Hua university:Acquire Chin Hua university the honorary doctorate academic degree of this top-grade university in the world, let me feel to be honored very Hua is an all of a hundred years history school, was born here a lot of outstanding scientist, businesses and political leader.I visited a Chin Hua last time is in that time, the Chinese student's artistic talent, enthusiasm and created * to leave a very deep impression for , I decide in China to establish the Microsoft Asian institute for to the leadership of ocean Doctor under, at Chin Hua etc. the university excellent graduate student of under help, the Microsoft Asian institute for research obtained success, making huge contribution for the Microsoft see their figures in various international conference is also the new products of Microsoft,such as Windows Vista, to be born, paying industrious that develop quickly in calculator science, the student who is a Chin Hua is a business ofexcited public.We just just started coming in contact with the marvellous experience that the software sorcery are 1,000,000,000 calculator customers in whole world, they just just started sharing an with the technical development of thesemi-conductor, fiber optic, the software can do more affairs:The television of today is still passive of, at the future, you can download a program from Internet, television can and the person communicate, interact;I visited the rice graduate school of the Chinese dept. of agriculture, hospital yesterday, seeing a technical personnel there start using software to distinguish analyse a different rice, is its row preface, hereafter can also pass the analytical calculation of software, the agrochemical which uses less grows a good species of high yield;The medical science field has already started using a software management database;The cellular phone of today has already become ours "numerical purse", can show map, getting to the Internet to check to seek an information, its returning will be able to communicate with person in the future;The emergence of the flat panel computer, make to can be wireless to get to the Internet in the classroom, use computer recording and identify a handwritten , the student didn't need lesson originally and then can carry out a more valid study, the teacher can also see the excellent teaching plan of world-wide locations.Certainly, software of the future still faces a lot of challenges, for example:How make the customer control more easilyHow carry out artificial intelligenceBut aught, in regard to calculator science, we place the ages which is the all the most excited public.China is doing more and more big contribution to the world economy, science and technology innovation in the fast Microsoft company would like to help the growth of Chinese company, helping all results that the Chinese citizensenjoy calculator science progress to bring:The Microsoft has already opened exhibition item, helping China of going into the city and working worker's member, disable and sick person is particularly a blind man to enjoy a science and technology result;The Microsoft has already donated a property to establish 5 to hope primary school and five nets hope up primary school;The Microsoft also cooperates with Chinese government and university, establishing a lot of academic exchanges items, encouraging an excellent and foreign expert to come to 华to speak to learn;Came from 39 more than 2000 students of Pacific Asia University of regions once in the Microsoft Asian institute for research practice, also 120 people acquired a research pecuniary aid, among them the enrollment that Chin Hua have mosThis academic year, the researcher of the Microsoft Asianinstitute for research will set up a course in the Chin Hua:"The popular realm of calculator research".I still want to borrow this opportunity declares, the company of Microsoft will establish in the Chin Hua" outstanding visit the scholar" that item, the institute for research of Microsoft Asia annually will invite the well-known calculator in a world does the expert arrive 姚期智The theories calculator science graduate school that professor leads speaks to first get to invite to come to visit of is what Numb province science and engineering universityin the United States弗朗 . 斯·凯斯霍Professor.（弗朗 . 斯·凯斯霍）（姚期智人名）In a word, I was very happy to arrive at an expensive school today, and at accepted the Harvard of my mother school to award my honorary doctorate academic degree before become a Chin Hua of honorary doctorate.Just, I am some breakthroughs that appear probably in future with everyone's sharing software realm, and theywill bring business enterprise of opportunity, is the help that disable and sick person and student hope everyones can be like my similar optimism:As long as can get to the Internet, can acquire to teach equally opportunity to company's devoting one's minding to the Chinese market is for have a very high expectation by academic careful famous Chin Hua us hold hands to make great effort, create the future brilliancy of the information technique together!Thank everyone.尊敬的顾校长，清华大学的老师、同学们：获得清华大学这所世界一流大学的名誉博士学位，让我感到非常荣幸。

比尔盖茨演讲稿
尊敬的各位来宾，女士们先生们：
很高兴能够在今天这个特别的场合，与大家分享一些关于科技、创新和慈善的想法。

作为微软的创始人和慈善家，我深知科技的力
量和创新的重要性，也深信慈善的意义和价值。

今天，我想和大家
一起探讨如何通过科技和创新来解决世界面临的挑战，以及如何通
过慈善来回馈社会，让世界变得更美好。

首先，让我们来谈谈科技和创新。

在当今世界，科技已经成为
推动社会发展和经济增长的重要力量。

无论是人工智能、大数据、
云计算，还是生物技术、新能源等领域，科技创新都在不断地改变
着我们的生活和工作方式。

我们要善于把握科技的发展趋势，积极
应对科技带来的挑战，推动科技的应用和创新，为社会发展和人类
福祉做出更大的贡献。

其次，让我们来谈谈慈善。

慈善是一种人道主义的精神，是一
种回馈社会、帮助他人的行为。

作为一个成功的企业家和慈善家，
我一直致力于推动慈善事业的发展，希望能够通过自己的努力和贡献，帮助更多需要帮助的人，改善社会的不公平现象，促进社会的
和谐发展。

我相信，只有当每个人都愿意为社会贡献自己的一份力量，我们才能共同创造一个更加美好的世界。

最后，我想说的是，科技和创新与慈善事业并不矛盾，而是可以相辅相成的。

我们可以通过科技和创新来解决社会面临的挑战，同时也可以通过慈善来回馈社会、帮助他人。

只有当科技、创新和慈善三者相结合，我们才能够真正实现社会的可持续发展和人类的共同福祉。

谢谢大家！让我们一起努力，共同创造一个更加美好的未来！。

比尔盖茨清华演讲(英文)(2007-09-28 13:41:47)Attending to of high regard president, the teacher, the classmates of Chin Hua university:Acquire Chin Hua university the honorary doctorate academic degree of this top-grade university in the world, let me feel to be honored very much.Chin Hua is an all of a hundred years history school, was born here a lot of outstanding scientist, businesses and political leader.I visited a Chin Hua last time is in 1997.At that time, the Chinese student's artistic talent, enthusiasm and created * to leave a very deep impression for me.After, I decide in China to establish the Microsoft Asian institute for research.At to the leadership of ocean Doctor under, at Chin Hua etc. the university excellent graduate student of under help, the Microsoft Asian institute for research obtained success, making huge contribution for the Microsoft company.Can see their figures in various international conference tops.They is also the new products of Microsoft,such as Windows Vista, to be born, paying industrious effort.Today that develop quickly in calculator science, the student who is a Chin Hua is a business of excited public.We just just started coming in contact with the marvellous experience that the software sorcery brings.There are 1,000,000,000 calculator customers in whole world, they just just started sharing an information.Along with the technical development of thesemi-conductor, fiber optic, the software can do more affairs:The television of today is still passive of, at the future, you can download a program from Internet, television can and the person communicate, interact;I visited the rice graduate school of the Chinese dept. of agriculture, hospital yesterday, seeing a technical personnel there start using software to distinguish analyse a different rice, is its row preface, hereafter can also pass the analytical calculation of software, the agrochemical which uses less grows a good species of high yield;The medical science field has already started using a software management database;The cellular phone of today has already become ours "numerical purse", can show map, getting to the Internet to check to seek an information, its returning will be able to communicate with person inthe future;The emergence of the flat panel computer, make to can be wireless to get to the Internet in the classroom, use computer recording and identify a handwritten writing.So, the student didn't need lesson originally and then can carry out a more valid study, the teacher can also see the excellent teaching plan of world-wide locations.Certainly, software of the future still faces a lot of challenges, for example:How make the customer control more easily?How carry out artificial intelligence?But aught, in regard to calculator science, we place the ages which is the all the most excited public.China is doing more and more big contribution to the world economy, science and technology innovation in the fast development.The Microsoft company would like to help the growth of Chinese company, helping all results that the Chinese citizens enjoy calculator science progress to bring:The Microsoft has already opened exhibition item, helping China of going into the city and working worker's member, disable and sick person is particularly a blind man to enjoy a science and technology result;The Microsoft has already donated a property to establish 5 to hope primary school and five nets hope up primary school;The Microsoft also cooperates with Chinese government and university, establishing a lot of academic exchanges items, encouraging an excellent and foreign expert to come to 华to speak to learn;Came from 39 more than 2000 students of Pacific Asia University of regions once in the Microsoft Asian institute for research practice, also 120 people acquired a research pecuniary aid, among them the enrollment that Chin Hua have mosThis academic year, the researcher of the Microsoft Asian institute for research will set up a course in the Chin Hua:"The popular realm of calculator research".I still want to borrow this opportunity declares, the company of Microsoft will establish in the Chin Hua" outstanding visit the scholar" item.Under that item, the institute for research of Microsoft Asia annually will invite the well-known calculator in a world does the expert arrive姚期智The theories calculator science graduateschool that professor leads speaks to learn.The first get to invite to come to visit of is what Numb province science and engineering universityin the United States弗朗. 斯·凯斯霍Professor.（弗朗. 斯·凯斯霍）（姚期智人名）In a word, I was very happy to arrive at an expensive school today, and at accepted the Harvard of my mother school to award my honorary doctorate academic degree before become a Chin Hua of honorary doctorate.Just, I am some breakthroughs that appear probably in future with everyone's sharing software realm, and they will bring business enterprise of opportunity, is the help that disable and sick person and student provide.I hope everyones can be like my similar optimism:As long as can get to the Internet, can acquire to teach equally opportunity to teach.Microsoft company's devoting one's minding to the Chinese market is long-term.We for have a very high expectation by academic careful famous Chin Hua university.Let us hold hands to make great effort, create the future brilliancy of the information technique together!Thank everyone.尊敬的顾校长，清华大学的老师、同学们：获得清华大学这所世界一流大学的名誉博士学位，让我感到非常荣幸。

The Road Ahead: Innovating Together in ChinaBy Bill Gates, Chairman of Microsoft CorporationApril 25, 2003 12:00 AM PT,April 19, 2007Honorable President Gu,Faculty and students of Tsinghua University,I'm very honored to be here receiving this degree from Tsinghua, which is one of the top universities in the world. Throughout its 96 years, it not only produced outstanding scientists but also industry and government leaders.When I visited here in 1997 – 10 years ago – I was very impressed by the talent, the enthusiasm and the creativity of the students that I met at Tsinghua. And it inspired me to support Microsoft in creating a research lab here in Beijing.That research lab has gone on to incredible success, led by Harry Shum and joined by top university graduates from this school and others. It's made huge contributions to Microsoft. And if you look at various conferences getting together to discuss the state-of-the-art issues, the researchers from this lab are making huge contributions. Or if you look at the products, even the recent Windows Vista or Office 2007, we have substantial innovations in those products.This is an incredible time to be a student at this University. The frontiers of science, including computer science, have never been nearer. The opportunity to improve people's lives in every way has never been stronger.We've really just scratched the surface of the digital revolution. Yes, we have about a billion personal computers that are connected up to the Internet. And we've already started to transform the way people, I think, are studying information and sharing information. But there are so much more that we can do.The exponential improvement in not only the processor transistors but also what we have in storage or optic fiber bandwidth give us an opportunity to apply software that can work in a far more powerful way.For example, when we think about TV. Today it's just a passive, non-interactive situation, but that's in the process of changing: changing so that you can get any show that you want on the Internet, changing so that it can be interactive so that you can learn as you go home, changing so that the flexibility even to talk and collaborate with others will be part of that experience.If you think about product design – and products are going to be designed digitally. I spent several hours yesterday at the Agricultural Rice Institute talking with the experts there about how they are using software technology to sequence different rice varieties. And they're optimistic that they can come up with new varieties that will require less fertilizer, less water and yet increase the yield. And it's advances like that that really reach out and change the lives not just of those of us who work in technology but people everywhere.The advances in medicine are dependent on software, software that can manage the databases and understand the complex systems. I'm very optimistic that we can makebig breakthroughs based on what software will provide.And if you think about your mobile phone going from being just a voice device to being something that can be a "digital wallet", that can show you maps and you'll be able totalk to it and ask for information and it will go out to the Internet and find the things that you're interested in.In terms of learning, by creating what we call the "student tablet" that will be very inexpensive and the size of a tablet but wirelessly connected to the Internet and able to record your voice or recognize your ink handwriting and yet provide learning experiences that are far more effective – and in fact bringing together all of the world's knowledge on the Internet in a very attractive form. Teachers will be able to see the world's best lectures, and they'll be able to see the best materials and for the first time start to share with each other. And so for anyone who wants to learn or wants to teach, it will be a very, very different world.We certainly have some very tough and interesting problems that I know the students here will be making breakthroughs in. Writing software that's reliable, that's totally secure, software that can handle parallel execution, software that's very easy to use and software that can solve some very tough problems, for example problems of artificial intelligence that we've already spent many decades working on. And so this is an amazing time to be working in the sciences and particularly in computer science.It's also an amazing time to this country. What's going on in China and the growth of its economy with incredible contributions not just within the country but to the global economy as well – you know, starting to be a very major contributor in all the sciences, advances in the medical drugs, advances in computer science. China will start to play a very substantial role, and part of that is the investments that have been made in having world-class universities, of which Tsinghua is really the shining example.For Microsoft, we have a commitment to work with our partners here and make them successful, to make sure that there are literally hundreds of software start-ups that not only sell in the market here but sell tothe entire world.We also want to make sure that the digital advances are available to all the citizens. Andso whether it's displaced workers or migrants or people who have disabilities – for example blind people – trying to use the computer, there are these special programs that we can put together to make sure that software really isn't just for the few but really is about empowering everyone. A good example of that is the 170 Hope Cyber Schools where we provided lots of training.Q/GDW 国家电网公司企业标准Q/GDW ××××－2009 高压电缆带电检测技术规范（征求意见稿）2009-××-××发布2009-××-××实施中华人民共和国国家电网公司发布目录前言1 范围22 规范性引用文件23 定义和符号24 总则25 高压电缆带电检测项目、周期和标准3附录A 高压电缆高频局部放电的典型图谱6附录B 中压电缆局部放电定位图11前言电力设备带电检测是发现设备潜在性运行隐患的有效手段，是电力设备安全、稳定运行的重要保障。

比尔盖茨北大演讲稿（中文）1.1所有这些革命特别是在应用方面的革命都是非常广泛的，突岜终庋奈恢茫馐欠浅钊烁械骄驳氖虑，因为我们看到有成千上万的软件公司在这个市场上经营业务，实际上很多人都到这样的大学里接受计算机科学的学习和教育。

比尔盖茨北大演讲稿(中文)2017-08-11 15:40:49 | #1楼比尔盖茨北大演讲由博雅源收集整理大家早上好！微软认为计算将是个人的，所有的人们创造出来工具，在所有的工具中个人电脑将是重要的一点，它能够为人们提供沟通以及制造，做生意的全新的方式，让这些充满了好奇心的学生，更好地获取各种各样的信息，让他们找到自己问题的答案。

在过去的30年中，确实是令人难以置信的。

我们看到计算以后的方式发展，在30多年以前，可能有几百台电脑，现在有高达几亿台电脑，现在全球有十亿人是PC机的用户，而且互联网把这些PC机的用户连接起来，让他们共享信息。

这就意味着软件和软件的创造力比以往更加地重要。

大概在30多年以前，软件公司的数量非常之少，事实上我还记得软件工程获得最高的奖项在当时就是销售一个软件产品是一千个拷贝，而微软在这方面卖出一百万个这样的软件，我们也意识到这个行业在不断地发生变化。

另外个人电脑的价格在逐渐下降，有一个纵向的循环，看到机器的价格在下降，机器变得越来越有吸引力，同时能够吸引更多潜在的软件购买者，越来越多的软件公司在提供一些专业软件，专门服务于医生、牙医或者其他各个你能够想到的行业。

软件使机器变得更加有吸引力，同时批量生产使价格在逐渐下降。

我们从纵向的循环当中受益匪浅，当然个人电脑的成本在逐渐地下降，我们看到软件通过互联网以前所未有的速度更多更快地提供给了人们，同时我们也发现，软件可以在更多的地方来运行。

现在软件可以在电话上运行，也可以在汽车里运行，也可以在控制电视机电子配件中运行，所以软件是无所不在的。

我们现在在互联网上运行服务，我们提供地图的服务或者搜索的服务，或者是销售的服务都在用到软件。

比尔盖茨演讲稿
尊敬的各位嘉宾，女士们，先生们，。

很高兴能有机会站在这里，与大家分享一些我对未来的看法和
思考。

作为一名科技创新者和慈善家，我一直致力于利用技术和资
源来改善世界，让每个人都能享有更好的生活质量。

首先，我想谈谈科技创新和数字化对我们的影响。

随着科技的
不断发展，我们的生活发生了翻天覆地的变化。

从互联网到人工智能，科技正在深刻地改变着我们的生产方式、生活方式和社会结构。

我们必须充分认识到这一点，并积极应对挑战，把握机遇。

其次，我想强调全球范围内的社会问题和不平等现象。

贫困、
疾病、教育不平等等问题依然困扰着世界许多地区，我们不能对此
视而不见。

作为富裕国家的一员，我们有责任帮助那些处于困境中
的人们，让他们也能享受到科技发展所带来的好处。

最后，我想呼吁大家加强全球合作，共同应对气候变化等全球
性挑战。

气候变化已经对我们的星球造成了严重的影响，我们必须
采取行动，减少碳排放，保护环境，让我们的子孙后代也能生活在
一个美丽的地球上。

在未来的道路上，我们需要更多的创新和合作，我们需要更多的关爱和奉献。

让我们携起手来，共同努力，创造一个更加美好的未来！
谢谢大家！。

比尔盖茨演讲稿英文回答：My fellow global citizens, esteemed colleagues, and distinguished guests,。

It is with great honor and gratitude that I standbefore you today to share my thoughts on the transformative power of technology and its potential to shape a better future for all. Throughout my career, I have had the privilege of witnessing firsthand the profound impact that technological advancements can have on our lives. From the advent of the personal computer to the rise of the internet, technology has revolutionized the way we communicate, learn, work, and connect with one another.As we look ahead to the next chapter of human history,it is clear that technology will continue to play a pivotal role in shaping our world. We are on the cusp of a new eraof technological innovation, marked by the convergence ofartificial intelligence, machine learning, and the Internet of Things. These technologies have the power to unlock unprecedented opportunities and solve some of the world's most pressing challenges.For example, artificial intelligence can be used to develop personalized learning experiences that cater to each student's unique needs. Machine learning can help us identify patterns and make predictions that can improve healthcare outcomes. And the Internet of Things can create interconnected systems that enable us to manage our energy consumption, reduce traffic congestion, and improve public safety.However, it is important to recognize that the transformative power of technology also comes with responsibilities. As we embrace new technologies, we must carefully consider their potential impact on our society and the environment. We need to ensure that technology is used for good and that it does not exacerbate existing inequalities or create new ones.One of the most urgent challenges we face is thedigital divide. Around the world, there are still billions of people who lack access to the internet and the transformative technologies that come with it. This divide not only limits their opportunities but also hinders our collective progress. We must work together to bridge this digital divide and ensure that everyone has the opportunity to benefit from the transformative power of technology.Another challenge we must address is the issue of privacy and data security. As technology becomes more pervasive in our lives, we are generating vast amounts of personal data. It is essential that we protect this data from misuse and ensure that it is used in a responsible and ethical manner.To ensure that technology is used for good, we need to foster a culture of collaboration and multi-stakeholder engagement. Governments, businesses, civil society organizations, and individuals all have a role to play in shaping the future of technology. We need to work together to create a framework that promotes innovation whilesafeguarding our values and protecting the public interest.In conclusion, the transformative power of technology holds immense promise for our future. But to harness this power and create a better world for all, we must use technology wisely and responsibly. We must bridge thedigital divide, protect privacy and data security, andfoster a culture of collaboration. By working together, we can harness the transformative power of technology tocreate a future that is more just, equitable, and sustainable for all.中文回答：尊敬的全球同胞们、亲爱的同事们和尊贵的来宾们，。

（英汉对照）比尔盖茨谈创新（中英对照）Bill gates _ Innovating to zero!创新到零Transcript for Bill Gates on energy: Innovating to zero!I'm going to talk today about energy and climate. And that might seem a bit surprising because my full-time work at the foundation is mostly about vaccines and seeds, about the things that we need to invent and deliver to help the poorest two billion live better lives. But energy and climate are extremely important to these people, in fact, more important than to anyone else on the planet. The climate getting worse, means that many years their crops won't grow. There will be too much rain, not enough rain. Things will change in ways that their fragile environment simply can't support. And that leads to starvation. It leads to uncertainty. It leads to unrest. So, the climate changes will be terrible for them.Also, the price of energy is very important to them. In fact, if you could pick just one thing to lower the price of, to reduce poverty, by far, you would pick energy. Now, the price of energy has come down over time. Really, advanced civilization is based on advances in energy. The coal revolution fueled the industrial revolution, and, even in the 1900's we've seen a very rapid decline in the price of electricity, and that's why we have refrigerators, air-conditioning, we can make modern materials and do so many things. And so, we're in a wonderful situation with electricity in the rich world. But, as we make it cheaper -- and let's go for making it twice as cheap -- we need to meet a new constraint, and that constraint has to do with CO2.CO2 is warming the planet, and the equation on CO2 is actually a very straightforward one. If you sum up the CO2 thatgets emitted, that leads to a temperature increase, and that temperature increase leads to some very negative effects. The effects on the weather and, perhaps worse, the indirect effects, in that the natural ecosystems can't adjust to these rapid changes, and so you get ecosystem collapses.Now, the exact amount of how you map from a certain increase of CO2 to what temperature will be and where the positive feedbacks are, there's some uncertainty there, but not very much. And there's certainly uncertainty about how bad those effects will be, but they will be extremely bad. I asked the top scientists on this several times, do we really have to get down to near zero? Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter? And the answer is that, until we get near to zero, the temperature will continue to rise. And so that's a big challenge. It's very different than saying we're a 12 ft high truck trying to get under a 10 ft bridge, and we can just sort of squeeze under. This is something that has to get to zero.Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide every year, over 26 billion tons. For each American, it's about 20 tons. For people in poor countries, it's less than one ton. It's an average of about five tons for everyone on the planet. And, somehow, we have to make changes that will bring that down to zero. It's been constantly going up. It's only various economic changes that have even flattened it at all, so we have to go from rapidly rising to falling, and falling all the way to zero.This equation has four factors. A little bit of multiplication. So, you've got a thing on the left, CO2, that you want to get to zero, and that's going to be based on the number of people, the services each person's using on average, the energy on average for each service, and the CO2 being put out per unit of energy.So, let's look at each one of these and see how we can get this down to zero. Probably, one of these numbers is going to have to get pretty near to zero. Now that's back from high school algebra, but let's take a look.First we've got population. Now, the world today has 6.8 billion people. That's headed up to about nine billion. Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines（疫苗）, health care, reproductive health services, we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent, but there we see an increase of about 1.3.The second factor is the services we use. This encompasses everything, the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating. These are very good things, and getting rid of poverty means providing these services to almost everyone on the planet. And it's a great thing for this number to go up. In the rich world, perhaps the top one billion, we probably could cut back and use less, but every year, this number, on average, is going to go up, and so, over all, that will more than double the services delivered per person. Here we have a very basic service. Do you have lighting in your house to be able to read your homework, and, in fact, these kids don't, so they're going out and reading their school work under the street lamps.Now, efficiency, E, the energy for each service, here, finally we have some good news. We have something that's not going up. Through various inventions and new ways of doing lighting, through different types of cars, different ways of building buildings. there are a lot of services where you can bring the energy for that service down quite substantially, some individual services even, bring it down by 90 percent. There are other services like how we make fertilizer, or how we do air transport, where the rooms for improvement are far, far less. And so, overallhere, if we're optimistic, we may get a reduction of a factor of three to even, perhaps, a factor of six. But for these first three factors now, we've gone from 26 billion to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons, and that just won't cut it.So let's look at this fourth factor -- this is going to be a key one -- and this is the amount of CO2 put out per each unit of energy. And so the question is, can you actually get that to zero? If you burn coal, no. If you burn natural gas, no. Almost every way we make electricity today, except for the emergingrenewables and nuclear, puts out CO2. And so, what we're going to have to do at a global scale, is create a new system. And so, we need energy miracles.Now, when I use the term miracle, I don't mean something that's impossible. The microprocessor is a miracle. The personal computer is a miracle. The internet and its services are a miracle. So, the people here have participated in the creation of many miracles. Usually, we don't have a deadline, where you have to get the miracle by a certain date. Usually, you just kind of stand by, and some come along, some don't. This is a case where we actually have to drive full speed and get a miracle in a pretty tight time line.Now, I thought, how could I really capture this? Is there some kind of natural illustration, some demonstration that would grab people's imagination here? I thought back to a year ago when I brought mosquitos, and somehow people enjoyed that. (Laughter) It really got them involved in the idea of, you know, there are people who live with mosquitos. So, with energy, all I could come up with is this. I decided that releasing fireflies would be my contribution to the environment here this year. So here we have some natural fireflies. I'm told they don't bite, in fact, theymight not even leave that jar. (Laughter)Now, there's all sorts gimmicky solutions like that one, but they don't really add up to much. We need solutions, either one or several, that have unbelievable scale and unbelievable reliability, and, although there's many directions people are seeking, I really only see five that can achieve the big numbers. I've left out tide, geothermal, fusion, biofuels. Those may make some contribution, and if they can do better than I expect, so much the better, but my key point here is that we're going to have to work on each of these five, and we can't give up any of them because they look daunting, because they all have significant challenges.Let's look first at the burning fossil fuels, either burning coal or burning natural gas. What you need to do there, seems like it might be simple, but it's not, and that's to take all the CO2, after you've burned it, going out the flue, pressurize it, create a liquid, put it somewhere, and hope it stays there. Now we have some pilot things that do this at the 60 to 80 percent level, but getting up to that full percentage, that will be very tricky, and agreeing on where these CO2 quantities should be put will be hard, but the toughest one here is this long term issue. Who's going to be sure? Who's going to guarantee something that is literally billions of times larger than any type of waste you think of in terms of nuclear or other things? This is a lot of volume. So that's a tough one.Next, would be nuclear. It also has three big problems. Cost, particularly in highly regulated countries, is high. The issue of the safety, really feeling good about nothing could go wrong, that, even though you have these human operators, that the fuel doesn't get used for weapons. And then what do you do with thewaste? And, although it's not very large, there are a lot of concerns about that. People need to feel good about it. So three very tough problems that might be solvable, and so, should be worked on.The last three of the five, I've grouped together. These are what people often refer to as the renewable sources. And they actually -- although it's great they don't require fuel -- they have some disadvantages. One is that the density of energy gathered in these technologies is dramatically less than a power plant. This is energy farming, so you're talking about many square miles, thousands of time more area than you think of as a normal energy plant. Also, these are intermittent sources. The sun doesn't shine all day, it doesn't shine every day, and, likewise, the wind doesn't blow all the time. And so, if you depend on these sources, you have to have some way of getting the energy during those time periods that it's not available. So, we've got big cost challenges here. We have transmission challenges. For example, say this energy source is outside your country, you not only need the technology, but you have to deal with the risk of the energy coming from elsewhere.And, finally, this storage problem. And, to dimensionalize this, I went through and looked at all the types of batteries that get made, for cars, for computers, for phones, for flashlights, for everything, and compared that to the amount of electrical energy the world uses, and what I found is that all the batteries we make now could store less than 10 minutes of all the energy. And so, in fact, we need a big breakthrough here, something that's going to be a factor of a hundred better than the approaches we have now. It's not impossible, but it's not a very easy thing. Now, this shows up when you try to get the intermittent source to be above, say,20 to 30 percent of what you're using. If you're counting on it for 100 percent, you need an incredible miracle battery.Now, how we're going to go forward on this: what's the right approach? Is it a Manhattan project? What's the thing that can get us there? Well, we need lots of companies working on this, hundreds. In each of these five paths, we need at least a hundred people. And a lot of them, you'll look at and say they're crazy. That's good. And, I think, here in the TED group, we have many people who are already pursuing this. Bill Gross has several companies, including one called eSolar that has some great solar thermal technologies. Vinod Khosla's investing in dozens of companies that are doing great things and have interesting possibilities, and I'm trying to help back that. Nathan Myhrvold and I actually are backing a company that, perhaps surprisingly, is actually taking the nuclear approach. There are some innovations in nuclear: modular, liquid. And innovation really stopped in this industry quite some ago, so the idea that there's some good ideas laying around is not all that surprising.The idea of T errapower is that, instead of burning a part of uranium, the one percent, which is the U235, we decided, let's burn the 99 percent, the U238. It is kind of a crazy idea. In fact, people had talked about it for a long time, but they could never simulate properly whether it would work or not, and so it's through the advent of modern supercomputers that now you can simulate and see that, yes, with the right material's approach, this looks like it would work.And, because you're burning that 99 percent, you have greatly improved cost profile. You actually burn up the waste, and you can actually use as fuel all the leftover waste from today's reactors. So, instead of worrying about them, you just take that.It's a great thing. It breathes this uranium as it goes along. So it's kind of like a candle. You can see it's a log there, often referred to as a traveling wave reactor. In terms of fuel, this really solves the problem. I've got a picture here of a place in Kentucky. This is the left over, the 99 percent, where they've taken out the part they burn now, so it's called depleted uranium. That would power the U.S. for hundreds of years. And, simply by filtering sea water in an inexpensive process, you'd have enough fuel for the entire lifetime of the rest of the planet.So, you know, it's got lots of challenges ahead, but it is an example of the many hundreds and hundreds of ideas that we need to move forward. So let's think, how should we measure ourselves? What should our report card look like? Well, let's go out to where we really need to get, and then look at the intermediate. For 2050, you've heard many people talk about this 80 percent reduction. That really is very important, that we get there. And that 20 percent will be used up by things going on in poor countries, still some agriculture. Hopefully, we will have cleaned up forestry, cement. So, to get to that 80 percent, the developed countries, including countries like China, will have had to switch their electricity generation altogether. So, the other grade is, are we deploying this zero-emission technology, have we deployed it in all the developed countries and we're in the process of getting it elsewhere. That's super important. That's a key element of making that report card.So, backing up from there, what should the 2020 report card look like? Well, again, it should have the two elements. We should go through these efficiency measures to start getting reductions. The less we emit, the less that sum will be of CO2, and, therefore, the less the temperature. But in some ways, the grade we getthere, doing things that don't get us all the way to the big reductions, is only equally, or maybe even slightly less, important than the other, which is the piece of innovation on these breakthroughs.These breakthroughs, we need to move those at full speed, and we can measure that in terms of companies, pilot projects, regulatory things that have been changed. There's a lot of great books that have been written about this. The Al Gore book, "Our Choice" and the David McKay book, "Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air." They really go through it and create a framework that this can be discussed broadly, because we need broad backing for this. There's a lot that has to come together.So this is a wish. It's a very concrete wish that we invent this technology. If you gave me only one wish for the next 50 years, I could pick who's president, I could pick a vaccine, which is something I love, or I could pick that this thing that's half the cost with no CO2 gets invented, this is the wish I would pick. This is the one with the greatest impact. If we don't get this wish, the division between the people who think short term and long term will be terrible, between the U.S. and China, between poor countries and rich, and most of all the lives of those two billion will be far worse.So, what do we have to do? What am I appealing to you to step forward and drive? We need to go for more research funding. When countries get together in places like Copenhagen, they shouldn't just discuss the CO2. They should discuss this innovation agenda, and you'd be stunned at the ridiculously low levels of spending on these innovative approaches. We do need the market incentives, CO2 tax, cap and trade, something that gets that price signal out there. We need to get the message out.We need to have this dialogue be a more rational, more understandable dialogue, including the steps that the government takes. This is an important wish, but it is one I think we can achieve.Thank you. (Applause) Thank you.Chris Anderson: Thank you. Thank you. (Applause) Thank you. Just so I understand more about Terrapower, right -- I mean, first of all, can you give a sense of what scale of investment this is?Bil Gates: To actually do the software, buy the supercomputer, hire all the great scientists, which we've done, that's only tens of millions, and even once we test our materials out in a Russian reactor to make sure our materials work properly, then you'll only be up in the hundreds of millions. The tough thing is building the pilot reactor, finding the several billion, finding the regulator, the location that will actually build the first one of these. Once you get the first one built, if it works as advertised, then it's just clear as day, because the economics, the energy density, are so different than nuclear as we know it.CA: And so, to understand it right, this involves building deep into the ground almost like a vertical kind of column of nuclear fuel, of this sort of spent uranium, and then the process starts at the top and kind of works down?BG: That's right. T oday, you're always refueling the reactor, so you have lots of people and lots of controls that can go wrong, that thing where you're opening it up and moving things in and out. That's not good. So, if you have very cheap fuel that you can put 60 years in -- just think of it as a log -- put it down and not have those same complexities. And it just sits there and burns for the sixty years, and then it's done.CA: It's a nuclear power plant that is its own waste disposalsolution.BG: Yeah. Well, what happens with the waste, you can let it sit there -- there's a lot less waste under this approach -- then you can actually take that, and put it into another one and burn that. And we start off actually by taking the waste that exists today, that's sitting in these cooling pools or dry casking by reactor. That's our fuel to begin with. So, the thing that's been a problem from those reactors is actually what gets fed into ours, and you're reducing the volume of the waste quite dramatically as you're going through this process.CA: But in your talking to different people around the world about the possibilities here, where is there most interest in actually doing something with this?BG: Well, we haven't picked a particular place, and there's all these interesting disclosure rules about anything that's called nuclear, so we've got a lot of interest, that people from the company have been in Russia, India, China. I've been back seeing the secretary of energy here, talking about how this fits into the energy agenda. So I'm optimistic. You know the French and Japanese have done some work. This is a variant on something that has been done. It's an important advance, but it's like a fast reactor, and a lot of countries have built them, so anybody who's done a fast reactor, is a candidate to be where the first one gets built.CA: So, in your mind, timescale and likelihood of actually taking something like this live?BG: Well, we need, for one of these high-scale, electro-generation things that's very cheap, we have 20 years to invent and then 20 years to deploy. That's sort of the deadline that the environmental models have shown us that we have to meet. And,you know, Terrapower, if things go well, which is wishing for a lot, could easily meet that. And there are, fortunately now, dozens of companies, we need it to be hundreds, who, likewise, if their science goes well, if the funding for their pilot plants goes well, that they can compete for this. And it's best if multiple succeed, because then you could use a mix of these things. We certainly need one to succeed.CA: In terms of big-scale possible game changes, is this the biggest that you're aware of out there?BG: An energy breakthrough is the most important thing. It would have been, even without the environmental constraint, but the environmental constraint just makes it so much greater. In the nuclear space, there are other innovators. You know, we don't know their work as well as we know this one, but the modular people, that's a different approach. There's a liquid type reactor, which seems a little hard, but maybe they say that about us. And so, there are different ones, but the beauty of this is a molecule of uranium has a million times as much energy as a molecule of, say, coal, and so, if you can deal with the negatives, which are essentially the radiation, the footprint and cost, the potential, in terms of effect on land and various things, is almost in a class of its own.CA: If this doesn't work, then what? Do we have to start taking emergency measures to try and keep the temperature of the earth stable?BG: If you get into that situation, it's like if you've been over-eating, and you're about to have a heart-attack. Then where do you go? You may need heart surgery or something. There is a line of research on what's called geoengineering, which are various techniques that would delay the heating to buy us 20 or 30 yearsto get our act together. Now, that's just an insurance policy. You hope you don't need to do that. Some people say you shouldn't even work on the insurance policy because it might make you lazy, that you'll keep eating because you know heart surgery will be there to save you. I'm not sure that's wise, giventhe importance of the problem, but there's now the geoengineering discussion about, should that be in the back pocket in case things happen faster, or this innovation goes a lot slower than we expect.CA: Climate skeptics: if you had a sentence or two to say to them, how might you persuade them that they're wrong?BG: Well, unfortunately, the skeptics come in different camps. The ones who make scientific arguments are very few. Are they saying there's negative feedback effects that have to do with clouds that offset things? There are very, very few things that they can even say there's a chance in a million of those things. The main problem we have here is kind of like AIDS. You make the mistake now, and you pay for it a lot later.And so, when you have all sorts of urgent problems, the idea of taking pain now that has to do with a gain later -- and a somewhat uncertain pain thing. In fact, the IPCC report, that's not necessarily the worst case, and there are people in the rich world who look at IPCC and say, okay, that isn't that big of a deal. The fact is it's that uncertain part that should move us towards this. But my dream here is that, if you can make it economic, and meet the CO2 constraints, then the skeptics say, okay, I don't care that it doesn't put out CO2, I kind of wish it did put out CO2, but I guess I'll accept it because it's cheaper than what's come before. (Applause)CA: And so, that would be your response to the BjornLomborg argument, that basically if you spend all this energy trying to solve the CO2 problem, it's going to take away all your other goals of trying to rid the world of poverty and malaria and so forth, [that] it's a stupid waste of the Earth's resources to put money towards that when there are better things we can do.BG: Well, the actual spending on the R&D piece -- say the U.S. should spend 10 billion a year more than it is right now -- it's not that dramatic. It shouldn't take away from other things. The thing you get into big money on, and this, reasonable people can disagree, is when you have something that's non-economic and you're trying to fund that. That, to me, mostly is a waste. Unless you're very close and you're just funding the learning curve and it's going to get very cheap. I believe we should try more things that have a potential to be far less expensive. If the trade-off you get into is, let's make energy super expensive, then the rich can afford that. I mean, all of us here could pay five times as much for our energy and not change our lifestyle. The disaster is for that two billion.And even Lomborg has changed. His shtick now is, why isn't the R&D getting discussed more. He's still, because of his earlier stuff, still associated with the skeptic camp, but he's realized that's a pretty lonely camp, and so, he's making the R&D point. And so there is a thread of something that I think is appropriate. The R&D piece, it's crazy how little it's funded.CA: Well Bill, I suspect I speak on the behalf of most people here to say, I really hope your wish comes true. Thank you so much.BG: Thank you. (Applause)我今天要谈的是能源与气候，这可能有点出人意料毕竟我在基金会的全职工作主要是关于疾病疫苗和农业种苗的那些的确是需要我们发明传播，以改善世上最贫穷的二十亿人的生活的东西那些的确是需要我们发明传播，以改善世上最贫穷的二十亿人的生活的东西但事实上，能源和气候对这些人极为重要，事实上，比对地球上其他人更加重要但事实上，能源和气候对这些人极为重要，事实上，比对地球上其他人更加重要气候的持续恶化意味着他们的庄稼将多年无法生长，意味着洪涝或干旱气候的持续恶化意味着他们的庄稼将多年无法生长，意味着洪涝或干旱这些变化将令他们脆弱的环境无法承受这些变化将令他们脆弱的环境无法承受这将导致饥荒，导致动荡，导致社会骚乱所以，气候变化将给他们带来严重后果，同时，能源价格也对他们至关重要所以，气候变化将给他们带来严重后果，同时，能源价格也对他们至关重要事实上，如果只能降低一样东西的价格以减少贫困，你一定会首选能源价格事实上，如果只能降低一样东西的价格以减少贫困，你一定会首选能源价格能源价格随着人类历史进程逐渐下降，先进文明是建立在先进能源的基础上的能源价格随着人类历史进程逐渐下降，先进文明是建立在先进能源的基础上的当年的煤炭革命推进了工业革命早在二十世纪初,我们就迎来了电价的快速下跌,这就是我们能够享受冰箱空调的原因早在二十世纪初,我们就迎来了电价的快速下跌,这就是我们能够享受冰箱空调的原因我们由此可以拥有各种现代化的事物，能够做各种事情得益于电力，我们能在一个富裕的世界里过着美妙的生活但是，当我们进一步降低电价的时候，比如再使其便宜两倍我们就有了一个新的限制，这个限制与二氧化碳有关我们就有了一个新的限制，这个限制与二氧化碳有关二氧化碳正在使全球变暖，而计算二氧化碳排放的公式其实非常简单明了二氧化碳正在使全球变暖，而计算二氧化碳排放的公式其实非常简单明了当前二氧化碳巨大的排放量将导致温度上升当前二氧化碳巨大的排放量将导致温度上升温度的升高将引起一系列非常严重的后果比如对天气的直接影响，或对生态系统的间接影响，生态系统无法应对剧烈变化的结果就是生态系统的全面崩溃比如对天气的直接影响，或对生态系统的间接影响，生态系统无法应对剧烈变化的结果就是生态系统的全面崩溃比如对天气的直接影响，或对生态系统的间接影响，生态系统无法应对剧烈变化的结果就是生态系统的全面崩溃二氧化碳排放增加和温度升高究竟成怎样的关系，两者间的正反馈效应为何？二氧化碳排放增加和温度升高究竟成怎样的关系，两者间的正反馈效应为何？二氧化碳排放增加和温度升高究竟成怎样的关系，两者间的正反馈效应为何？这中间有一些不确定因素，但不多至于全球变暖的具体负面影响有多严重，这无法完全确定，但肯定极其严重至于全球变暖的具体负面影响有多严重，这无法完全确定，但肯定极其严重我为此多次请教过顶尖的科学家们：我们真的一定要将二氧化碳排放降到零吗？我为此多次请教过顶尖的科学家们：我们真的一定要将二氧化碳排放降到零吗？减少到一半或四分之一不行吗？他们的回答是，除非我们降到零，否则气温将持续上升，那将是一个巨大的挑战他们的回答是，除非我们降到零，否则气温将持续上升，那将是一个巨大的挑战他们的回答是，除非我们降到零，否则气温将持续上升，那将是一个巨大的挑战这不同于让一辆12英尺高的卡车通过限高10英尺的桥，只要想办法挤过去即可这不同于让一辆12英尺高的卡车通过限高10英尺的桥，只要想办法挤过去即可二氧化碳的排放是要彻底降到零为止当前我们每年都排放大量的二氧化碳，总量超过260亿吨当前我们每年都排放大量的二氧化碳，总量超过260亿吨美国人约排放量约20吨，贫穷国家人均不到一吨，全球人均排放量约为5吨美国人约排放量约20吨，贫穷国家人均不到一吨，全球人均排放量约为5吨美国人约排放量约20吨，贫穷国家人均不到一吨，全球人均排放量约为5吨无论如何，我们都要做出改变，直至把这个数字降到零无论如何，我们都要做出改变，直至把这个数字降到零这个数字现在还在继续上升中，只有经济波动才稍稍抑制其上升的势头这个数字现在还在继续上升中，只有经济波动才稍稍抑制其上升的势头我们不但要扭转其迅速上升的势头，还要让它下降，并且一路降到零我们不但要扭转其迅速上升的势头，还要让它下降，并且一路降到零这个二氧化碳的公式有四个因素，四者相乘这个二氧化碳的公式有四个因素，四者相乘等式左面是二氧化碳排放量，我们的目标是让它降到零二氧化碳排放＝人口总数 X 人均使用的服务量 X 每单位服务平均耗用能源量X 每单位能源的二氧化碳排放二氧化碳排放＝人口总数 X 人均使用的服务量 X 每单位服务平均耗用能源量 X 每单位能源的二氧化碳排放二氧化碳排放＝人口总数 X 人均使用的服务量 X 每单位服务平均耗用能源量X 每单位能源的二氧化碳排放二氧化碳排放＝人口总数 X 人均使用的服务量 X 每单位服务平均耗用能源量 X 每单位能源的二氧化碳排放下面让我们逐个来看各个因子，看看怎样才能将等式最终降为零下面让我们逐个来看各个因子，看看怎样才能将等式最终降为零显然，我们需要至少一个因子非常接近于零，这是简单的高中代数(老美高中才学这个？) 显然，我们需要至少一个因子非常接近于零，这是简单的高中代数(老美高中才学这个？)?我们来看一下，首先是人口我们来看一下，首先是人口目前世界上有68亿人，这将继续增长到约90亿人目前世界上有68亿人，这将继续增长到约90亿人如果我们在新疫苗开发、医疗服务、生殖健康方面的工作做得卓有成效的话如果我们在新疫苗开发、医疗服务、生殖健康方面的工作做得卓有成效的话这个数字可能可以减少10％到15％，这样的话综合增长率约为1.3 这个数字可能可以减少10％到15％，这样的话综合增长率约为1.3第二个因子是我们使用的服务这包括所有东西：我们吃的食物，穿的衣服，电视，暖气，都是些非常美好的事物这包括所有东西：我们吃的食物，穿的衣服，电视，暖气，都是些非常美好的事物这包括所有东西：我们吃的食物，穿的衣服，电视，暖气，都是些非常美好的事物摆脱贫穷就意味着向地球上每个人提供这些服务，这个因子进一步提高才是好事摆脱贫穷就意味着向地球上每个人提供这些服务，这个因子进一步提高才是好事摆脱贫穷就意味着向地球上每个人提供这些服务，这个因子进一步提高才是好事在发达国家里，最富裕的十。