Effort Estimation
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项目管理专业术语列表Accept 验收Acceptance 验收Acceptance criteria 验收标准Acquire project team 组建项目团队Activity 活动Activity attributes 活动属性Activity code 活动编码Activity Definition 活动定义Activity Description(AD)活动描述/说明Activity Duration estimating 活动历时估算Activity identifier 活动标识符Activity list 活动列表Activity-On-Arrow(AOA)箭线网络图(双代号网络图)Activity-on-Node(AON)节点式网络图(单代号网络图)Activity resource estimating 活动资源估算Activity sequencing 活动排序Actual 实际Actual cost(AC)实际成本Actual Cost of Work Performed(ACWP)已执行工作实际成本Actual duration 实际历时Actual Finish Date(AF)实际完成日期Actual Start Date(AS)实际开始日期Administrative Closure 行政收尾Analogous estimating 类比估算Application area 应用领域Apportioned effort(AE)分配的工作量Approval 批准Approve 批准Approved change request 已批准的变更请求Arrow 箭线Arrow Diagramming Method(ADM)箭线图示法As-of date 截止日期Assumptions假设Assumptions analysis 假设分析Authority 职权Backward Pass 逆推计算法Bar Chart 横道图(甘特图,条形图)Baseline 基准计划(基线)Baseline finish date 基线完成日期Baseline start date 基线开始日期Bill of materials(BOM)材料单bottom-up estimating 自底向上估算brainstorming 头脑风暴budget 预算budget at completion(BAC)完工预算budget estimate 概算budgeted cost of work performed(BCMP)已执行工作的预算成本budgeted cost of work scheduled(BCWS)计划执行预算成本buffer 缓冲buyer 买方calendar unit 日历单位change 变更change control board(CCB)变更控制委员会change control system 变更控制系统change request 变更请求chart of accounts 账目图表charter 章程checklist 检查单claim 索偿close project 结束项目closing processes收尾过程code of accounts 账目编码co-location 同地办公common cause 共同原因communication 沟通communication management plan 沟通管理计划communications planning 沟通规划compensation 补偿component 组件concurrent engineering 并行工程configuration management system 配置管理系统constraint 约束条件contingencies 意外contingency 意外,应急contingency allowance 应急余量contingency planning应急计划contingency reserve 应急储备contract 合同contract administration 合同管理contract closure 合同收尾contract management plan合同管理计划contract statement of work(SOW)合同工作说明书contract work breakdown structure(CWBS)合同工作分解结构control 控制controlling 控制control account 控制账目control account plan 控制账目计划control chart 控制图control limits 控制范围corrective action 纠正措施cost 成本cost baseline 成本基线cost budgeting 成本预算cost control 成本控制cost estimating 成本估算cost management plan成本管理计划cost of quality 质量成本cost performance index(CPI)成本绩效系数cost-plus-fee(CPF)成本加附加费cost-plus-fixed-fee(CPFF)contract 成本加固定附加费合同cost-plus-incentive-fee(CPIF)contract成本加奖励合同cost reimbursable contract成本偿还合同cost V ariance(CV)费用偏差crashing 赶工create WBS(work breakdown structure)创建工作分解结构critical 关键critical activity 关键活动critical chain method 关键链法critical path 关键路径critical path method(CPM)关键路径法current 当前current finish date 当前结束日期current start date 当前开始日期data date(DD)数据日期date 日期decision tree analysis 决策树分析decompose 分解decomposition 分解defect 缺陷defect repair 缺陷修复deliverable 可交付物delphi technique 德尔菲技术dependency 依赖关系design review 设计评审develop 开发,研制develop project charter 制定项目章程develop project management plan 制定项目管理计划develop project scope statement(preliminary)制定项目范围说明书(初步)develop project team 项目团队建设direct and manage project execution 指导和管理项目执行discrete effort 离散工作量document 文档documented procedure 明文的规范dummy activity 虚活动duration(DU or DUR)历时duration compression 历时压缩early 早early finish date(EF)最早完工日期early start date(ES)最早开始日期earned value(EV)挣值法earned value analysis 挣值分析earned value management 挣值管理earned value technique(EVT)挣值技术effort 工作量enterprise environmental factors 事业环境因素estimate 估算estimate at completion(EAC)在完成时的费用估算estimate to complete(ETC)到完成时的估算event 事件event-on-node 单节点事件图exception report 异常报告execute 执行execution 执行executing 执行executing processes 执行过程expected monetary value(EMV)analysis 期望货币值分析expert judgment 专家判断failure mode and effect analysis 失败模式和影响分析fast tracking 快速跟进finish 完成finish date 完成日期finish-to-finish(FF)完成到完成关系finish-to-start(FS)完成到开始关系fixed-price 固定价格firm-fixed-price(FFP)contract 固定总价合同fixed-price-incentive-fee(PFIF)contract固定价格加奖励合同fixed-price or lump-sum contract 固定价格或总额合同float 浮动时间flowcharting 流程图forecasts 预测,预想forward pass 正推法free float(FF)自由时差functional 职能functional manager 职能经理functional organization 职能型组织funds 资金gantt chart 甘特图goods 物品、货物、商品grade 等级graphical evaluation and review technique(GERT)图解评审技术ground rules 基本规则、条例hammock 集合工作hammock activity 集合活动human resource planning 编制人力资源计划imposed date 强制日期influence 影响influence diagram 影响图influencer 有影响力的人information distribution 信息发布initiate 发起initiation 立项initiator 发起人initiating processes 启动过程inspection 审查integral 整体integrated 整体的integrated change control 整体变更控制integrated cost/schedule reporting 成本/进度综合报告invitation for bid(IFB)邀标书issue 问题、争端key event schedule 关键事件进度计划lag 滞后late 迟late finish date(LF)最迟结束时间late startdate(LS)最迟开始日期latest revised estimate 最新修订的估算lead 超前,提前量lessons learned 经验教训lenssons learned knowledge base 经验知识库level of effort(LOE)投入水平leveling 平衡life cycle 生命周期life-cycle costing 全生命期成本估算line manager 产品经理logic 逻辑logic diagram 逻辑图logical relationship 逻辑关系loop 回路manage 管理manage project team 管理项目团队manage stakeholders 管理项目干系人management reserve 管理储备量master schedule 主进度表materiel 物资matrix organization 矩阵型组织methodology 方法论milestone 里程碑milestone schedule 里程碑进度modern project management(MPM)现代项目管理monitor 监督monitoring 监督monitor and control project work 监督和控制项目工作monitoring and controlling processes 监督和控制过程monte carlo analysis 蒙托卡罗分析near-critical activity 近关键路径network 网络network analysis 网络分析network logic 网络逻辑network loop 网络循环network path 网络路径networking 人际网node 节点objective 目标,目的operations 日常运营opportunity 机会organization 组织organization chart 组织图organizational breakdown structure(OBS)组织分解结构organizational planning 组织规划organizational process assets 组织过程资产original duration(OD)初始历时overall change control 整体变更控制overlap 重叠parametric estimating 参数式估算pareto chart 帕累托图path 路径path float 线路时差path convergence 路径会聚path divergence 路径发散percent complete(PC)完成百分比perform 执行perform quality assurance(QA)执行质量保证perform quality control(QC)执行质量控制performance measurement baseline绩效测量基线performance reporting 绩效报告performance reports 绩效报告performing organization 执行机构PERT chart 计划评审技术图phase 阶段plan 计划plan contracting 签约计划plan purchases and acquisitions 编制采购计划planned finish date(PF)计划结束时间planned startdate(PS)计划开始时间planned value 计划值planning package 计划包planning processes 计划过程portfolio 组合portfolio management 项目组合管理position description 岗位描述practice 惯例precedence 优先precedence diagramming method(PDM)前导图法precedence relationship 前导关系predecessor activity 前置活动preventive activity 预防措施probability and impact matrix 概率和影响矩阵procedure 规程process 过程process group 过程组procurement 采购procurement documents 采购文档procurement management plan采购管理计划procurement planning 采购规划product 产品product life cycle 产品生命周期product scope 产品范围product scope description 产品范围描述program 大型项目program evaluation and review technique(PERT)计划评审技术program management 大型项目管理program management office 大型项目管理办公室progressive elaboration 渐进明细project 项目project calendar 项目日历project charter 项目章程project communication management 项目沟通管理project cost management 项目成本管理project human resource management 项目人力资源管理project initiation 项目启动project integration management 项目整体管理project life cycle 项目生命周期project management(PM)项目管理project management body of knowledge(PMBOK)项目管理知识体系project management information system 项目管理信息系统project management knowledge area 项目管理知识域project management office(PMO)项目管理办公室project management plan 项目管理计划project management process 项目管理过程project management process group 项目管理过程组project management professional(PMP)项目管理专业人员project management software 项目管理软件project management system 项目管理系统project management team 项目管理团队project manager (PM)项目经理project network diagram 项目网络图project organization chart 项目组织章程project phase 项目阶段project plan 项目计划project plandevelopment 项目计划开发project planexecution 项目计划实施project planning 项目规划project process groups 项目过程组project procurement management 项目采购管理project quality management 项目质量管理project risk management 项目风险管理project schedule 项目进度project schedule network diagram 项目进度网络图project scope 项目范围project scope management 项目范围管理project scope management plan 项目范围管理计划project scope statement 项目范围说明书project sponsor 项目发起人project stakeholder 项目干系人project summary work breakdown structure(PSWBS)项目概要工作分解结构project team 项目团队project team directory 项目团队名录project team members 项目团队成员project time management 项目时间管理project work 项目工作projected organization 项目型组织quality 质量qualitative risk analysis 定性风险分析quality management plan 项目质量计划quality planning 制定项目质量计划quality assurance(QA)质量保证quality control(QC)质量控制quantitative risk analysis 定量风险分析regulation 规章reliability 可靠性remaining duration(RDU)剩余历时request 请求request for information 信息请求request for proposal(RFP)方案征集书request for quotation(RFQ)报价请求request seller responses 请求卖方回应requested change 已申请的变更requirement 需求reserve 预留reserve 预留分析resource 资源resource breakdown structure(RBS)资源分解结构resource calendar 资源日历resource-constrained schedule 资源受限的进度resource histogram 资源图resource leveling 资源平衡resource-limited schedule 资源受限的进度resource planning 资源规划responsibility 责任responsibility assignment matrix(RAM)责任分配矩阵responsibility chart 责任图responsibility matrix 责任分配矩阵result 成果retain age 保证金rework 返工risk 风险risk acceptance 风险接受risk avoidance 风险规避risk breakdown structure(RBS)风险分解结构risk category 风险类别risk database 风险数据库risk event 突发事件risk identification 风险识别risk management plan 风险管理计划risk management planning编制风险管理计划risk mitigation 风险缓解risk monitoring and control风险监督和控制risk register 风险登记表risk response planning 制定风险应对计划risk responsecontrol 风险应对控制risk responsedevelopment 风险应对开发risk transference 风险转移role 角色rolling wave planning 滚动式计划root cause analysis 根本原因分析S-curve S曲线schedule 进度计划schedule activity 进度活动scheduleanalysis 进度分析schedulecompression 进度压缩schedulecontrol 进度控制schedule development 进度制定schedule management plan进度管理计划schedule milestone 进度里程碑schedule model 进度模型schedule network analysis进度网络分析scheduleperformance index(SPI)进度绩效指数schedulevariance(SV)进度偏差scheduled finish date(SF)计划结束日期scheduled start date(SS)计划开始日期scope 范围scope baseline 范围基线scope change 范围变更scope change control 范围变更控制scope control 范围控制scope creep 范围蔓延scope definition 范围定义scope planning 编制范围管理计划scope verification 范围验证secondary risk 二次风险select sellers 卖方选择sellers 卖方sensitivity analysis 敏感度分析service 服务should-cost estimate 理想成本估算simulation 模拟skill 技能slack 松弛量solicitation 询价,询价规范special cause 特定原因specification 规格说明书specification limits 规格限定sponsor 发起人、出资方staff 人员配备staff acquisition 工作人员招募staffing management plan 人员配备管理计划stakeholder 项目干系人standard 标准start 开始startdate 开始日期start-to-finish(SF)开始到完成关系start-to-start(SS)开始到开始关系statement of work(SOW)工作说明书strengths,weaknesses,opportunities,and threats(SWOT)analysisSWOT分析sub 子subnet 子网subnet work 子网络sub phase 子阶段sub project 子项目successor 后续successor activity 后续活动summary activity 汇总活动system 系统target 目标,预定target completion date(TC)预定完成时间target finish date(TF)预定结束时间target schedule 预定进度target startdate(TS)预定开始时间task 任务team 团队team development 团队建设team members 团队成员technical performance measurement技术性能测量technique 技术template 模板threat 威胁three-point estimate 三点估算threshold 阀值time and material(T&M)contract工时和材料合同time-scaled schedule network diagram 时标进度网络图time-scaled network diagram 时标网络图tool 工具total float(TF)总时差total quality management(TQM)全面质量管理trend analysis 趋势分析triggers 触发条件triple constraint 三约束user 用户validation 确认value engineering价值工程variance 差异variance analysis 差异分析verification 验证virtual team 虚拟团队voice of the customer顾客意见war room 指挥部work 工作work authorization 工作授权work authorization system 工作授权体系work breakdown structure(WBS)工作分解结构work breakdown structure component 工作分解结构部件work breakdown structure dictionary 工作分解结构字典work item 工作项work package 工作包work performance information 工作绩效信息workaround 风险应急。
中央民族大学考博英语模拟试题及其解析1.The machine needs a complete____since it has been in use for over ten years.(A)amending(B)fitting(C)mending(D)renovating2.There were many people present and he appeared only for a few seconds,so I only caught a____of him.(A)glance(B)glimpse(C)look(D)sight3.I don't think it's wise of you to_____your greater knowledge in front of the director,for it may offend him.(A)show up(B)show out(C)show in(D)show off4.The returns in the short______may be small,but over a number of years the investment will be well repaid.Geng duo yuan xiao wan zheng kao bo ying yu zhen ti ji qi jie xi qing lian xi quan guo mian fei zi xun dian hua:si ling ling liu liu ba liu jiu qi ba,huo jia zi xun qq:qi qi er liu qi ba wu san qi.(A)interval(B)range(C)span(D)term5.A thorough study of biology requires_____with the properties of trees and plants,and the habit of birds and beasts.(A)acquisition(B)discrimination(C)curiosity(D) familiarity6.She worked hard at her task before she felt sure that the results would____her long effort.(A)justify(B)testify(C)rectify(D)verify7.I'm very glad to know that my boss has generously agreed to _____my debt in return for certain services.(A)take away(B)cut out(C)write off(D)clear up8.Some journalists often overstate the situation so that their news may create a great____.(A)explosion(B)sensation(C)exaggeration(D) stimulation9.According to what you have just said,am I to understand that his new post____no responsibility with it at all?(A)shoulders(B)possesses(C)carries(D)shares10.Sometimes the student may be asked to write about his____toa certain book or article that has some bearing on the subject being studied.(A)comment(B)reaction(C)impression(D)comprehension11.Please____yourself from smoking and spitting in public places,since the law forbids them.(A)restrain(B)hinder(C)restrict(D)prohibit12.Without telephone it would be impossible to carry on the functions of______every business operation in the whole country.(A)practically(B)preferably(C)precisely(D) presumably13.Preliminary estimation puts the figure at around billion, ____the billion the President is struggling to get through the Congress.(A)in proportion to(B)in reply to(C)in relation to(D) in contrast to14.He is planning another tour abroad,yet his passport will ______at the end of this month.(A)expire(B)exceed(C)terminate(D)cease15.All the off-shore oil explorers were in high spirits as they read________letters from their families.(A)sentimental(B)affectionate(C)intimate(D) sensitive16.several international events in the early1990s seem likely to______,or at least weaken,the trends that emerged in the1980s.(A)revolt(B)revolve(C)reverse(D)revive17.I was unaware of the critical points involved,so my choice was quite______.(A)arbitrary(B)rational(C)mechanical(D) unpredictable18.The local people were joyfully surprised to find the price of vegetables no longer______according to the weather.(A)altered(B)converted(C)fluctuated(D)modified19.The pursuit of leisure on the part of the employees will certainly not_____their prospect of promotion.(A)spur(B)further(C)induce(D)reinforce20.In what_______to a last minute stay of execution,a council announced that emergency funding would keep alive two aging satellites.(A)applies(B)accounts(C)attaches(D)amount1.本题的答案是(C)(A)amending:"修改,修正",通常指对法律条文、国际条约、合同等进行适当的修改。
Why are materialists less happy?The role of gratitude and needsatisfaction in the relationship between materialism and lifesatisfactionJo-Ann Tsang ⇑,Thomas P.Carpenter 1,James A.Roberts 2,Michael B.Frisch 3,Robert D.Carlisle 4,5Baylor University,United Statesa r t i c l e i n f o Article history:Received 21August 2013Received in revised form 5February 2014Accepted 6February 2014Available online 7March 2014Keywords:Gratitude MaterialismNeed satisfaction Life satisfactiona b s t r a c tMaterialism has been consistently related to lower levels of life satisfaction.We suggest that one reason for this negative relationship may be that high materialists find it harder to be grateful,and lower levels of trait gratitude may be related to unmet psychological needs.246undergraduate marketing students (129female)completed self-report dispositional measures of materialism,gratitude,need satisfaction,and life satisfaction via online questionnaire.Statistical mediation analyses were performed using condi-tional process modeling.Consistent with predictions,gratitude and need satisfaction mediated the rela-tionship between materialism and decreased life satisfaction in-sequence.Gratitude was also a direct mediator,whereas need satisfaction played an indirect role through its relationship with gratitude.Results may shed light on why those high in materialism are less happy than those low in materialism,and suggest possibilities for interventions to increase life satisfaction.Ó2014Elsevier Ltd.All rights reserved.Do not spoil what you have by desiring what you have not;remember that what you now have was once among the things you only hoped for.-EpicurusResearch suggests that materialists,despite their increased ten-dency to achieve material goals,tend to be less globally satisfied with their lives.For example,materialists are more likely to be de-pressed (Mueller et al.,2011),lonely (Pieters,2013),and have low-er self-esteem.Understanding the nature of this relationship is an important goal for materialism research (Christopher,Drummond,Jones,Marek,&Therriault,2006).A number of constructs have been posited to account for this relationship,but one factor that has received less attention is gratitude.A better understanding of the role of gratitude may be the antidote to the increasingly nega-tive outcomes associated with the rising tide of materialism in the ever-expanding global consumer culture.In the present research,we outline a model that examines decreased gratitude and im-paired need satisfaction as mediators of the link between material-ism and life satisfaction.We propose that one reason materialists are less satisfied with their lives is that they experience less grati-tude.Rather than being satisfied with what they have,materialists may instead focus on what they do not have,making it difficult to appreciate the positive in their lives.Such an orientation may make it more difficult for materialists to get their psychological needs met,further contributing to lower life satisfaction.1.Materialism and life satisfactionRichins and Dawson (1992)outlined three key facets of materi-alism:(1)centrality ,or making acquisition of material possessions a central focus in one’s life,(2)happiness ,or making the pursuit of material possessions one’s main source of life satisfaction,and (3)success ,or viewing possessions as a marker for success.Given its importance for life satisfaction,we restrict our discussion of materialism to the happiness facet,defining materialism as the degree to which one believes that material possessions are a large determinant of one’s happiness in life./10.1016/j.paid.2014.02.0090191-8869/Ó2014Elsevier Ltd.All rights reserved.Corresponding author.Address:Dept.of Psychology and Neuroscience,BaylorUniversity,One Bear Pl.#97334,Waco,TX 76798-7334,United States.Tel.:+1(254)7102259;fax:+1(254)7103033.E-mail addresses:Joann_Tsang@ (J.-A.Tsang),Thomas_Carpenter@ (T.P.Carpenter),Jim_Roberts@ (J.A.Roberts),Michael_B_Frisch@ (M.B.Frisch),rdcarlisle@ (R.D.Carlisle).1Dept.of Psychology and Neuroscience,Baylor University,Waco,TX 76798,United States.Tel.:+1(254)7102961;fax:+1(254)7103033.2Hankamer School of Business,Marketing Department,Baylor University,One Bear Pl.#98007,Waco,TX 76798-8007,United States.Tel.:+1(254)7104952;fax:+1(254)7101068.3Dept.of Psychology and Neuroscience,Baylor University,Waco,TX 76798-7334,United States.Tel.:+1(254)7102252;fax:+1(254)7103033.4Dept.of Psychology and Neuroscience,Baylor University,Waco,TX 76798,United States.5Present address:Mesa Public Schools,63E.Main Street,Mesa,AZ 85201,United States.A number of studies have shown that materialism predicts de-creased life satisfaction.Higher materialism scores are related to dissatisfaction not only with one’s standard of living,but also dissatisfaction with the amount of fun in life and relationships with one’s friends,along with dissatisfaction with life as a whole (Richins&Dawson,1992;see also Burroughs&Rindfleisch, 2002;Christopher,Saliba,&Deadmarsh,2009;Froh,Emmons, Card,Bono,&Wilson,2011;Kasser,2002;Otero-Lo9pez,Pol,Bolaño, &Mariño,2011;Ryan&Dziurawiec,2001).Materialism is also associated with several negative indicators of well-being,such as loneliness(Pieters,2013),depression(Mueller et al.,2011),and low self-esteem(Christopher et al.,2006;Richins&Dawson, 1992).A series of studies by Kasser and Ryan(1993,1996,and 2001)found that those expressing highly materialistic values expe-rienced fewer positive emotions and greater levels of depression, anxiety,and substance abuse.Kasser(2002)concludes that a value system dominated by materialistic values undermines one’s sense of self,the quality of his or her relationships and willingness to get involved in community events.These may be particularly related to the happiness facet of materialism,which Roberts and Clement (2007)found was negatively related to satisfaction in eight differ-ent life domains.Why are materialists,on average,less happy?Gap theory (Solberg,Diener,&Robinson,2004)posits that materialists have unrealistically high expectations for the satisfaction that material goods will bring them.Consistent with this,Richins(2013)showed that prior to making a purchase,materialists experience higher levels of expectation and anticipatory positive emotion than non-materialists.However,the acquisition of material goods is unable to meet expectations or sustain these emotions,leading to a decline of positive emotion.In order to maintain positive emotions, materialists may therefore need to continually seek out new purchases,resulting in a chronic dissatisfaction and potential decreases in psychological states that are important for well-being, such as gratitude.2.Gratitude,well-being,and materialismGratitude is a positive emotion that is experienced when people perceive that they have a received a valued benefit(Emmons& Crumpler,2000;McCullough,Kilpatrick,Emmons,&Larson, 2001;Tsang,2007).Research has linked gratitude with various indices of well-being(Seligman,Steen,Park,&Peterson,2005; Wood,Froh,&Geraghty,2010),including decreased depression (Fredrickson,Tugade,Waugh,&Larkin,2003;Toepfer,Cichy, &Peters,2012),increased positive life appraisals(Emmons& McCullough,2003),positive affect(Froh,Kashdan,Ozimkowski,& Miller,2009;Toepfer et al.,2012),perceived meaning in life (Kashdan,Uswatte,&Julian,2006;Lambert,Graham,&Fincham, 2009),and life satisfaction(Lavy&Littman-Ovadia,2011;Toepfer et al.,2012;Watkins,Woodward,Stone,&Kolts,2003;Wood, Joseph,&Maltby,2008).Gratitude seems to confer robust benefits for well-being.If materialism is associated with decreased gratitude,it may explain in part why materialists are less happy.Recent research has demonstrated that materialism and gratitude are negatively related(Froh et al.,2011;Lambert,Fincham,Stillman,&Dean, 2009;McCullough,Emmons,&Tsang,2002;Polak&McCullough, 2006).This research has at times pointed to a causal relationship from state gratitude to temporary decreases in materialism (Lambert et al.,2009;Polak&McCullough,2006).However,it is also plausible that a materialistic outlook,which looks for satisfaction in what one does not have,would impair the ability to be grateful for what one has now.In the present study,we examine whether gratitude mediates the relationship between materialism and life satisfaction.3.Need satisfaction as second potential mediatorWhat mechanisms might underlie the mediating effect grati-tude might have on the lower life satisfaction of high materialists? Gratitude may lead to increased life satisfaction because grateful people have important psychological needs satisfied,whereas materialistic people may have unmet psychological needs.Extend-ing the previous theoretical model,we suggest that materialism and decreased gratitude may impact life satisfaction indirectly through a third variable:impaired psychological need satisfaction.Sheldon(2011)defined psychological needs as‘‘evolved ten-dencies to seek out certain basic types of psychosocial experiences and to feel good and thrive when those basic experiences are ob-tained’’(p.552).Well-being increases when basic psychological needs are met,which include relatedness,autonomy,and compe-tence.Materialism may impact life satisfaction by leading individ-uals to neglect important psychosocial needs.Sheldon(2011) noted that although individuals often work toward satisfying un-met needs,people sometimes engage in unsatisfying behaviors. For example,a person high in materialism may deal with unmet relatedness needs by putting in even more hours at the office,lead-ing to further deficits in relatedness and decreased life satisfaction (Kasser,2002;see also Norris,Lambert,DeWall,&Fincham,2012). Materialism might decrease autonomy by compelling people to ac-quire more wealth rather than choosing other activities.It might decrease competence if materialistic people chronically focus on where they fall short in terms of material resources.Research has supported a link between materialism and unmet psychological needs.Kashdan and Breen(2007)found that materi-alism was associated negatively with relatedness,autonomy,and competence,along with lower levels of dispositional gratitude. Howell and Hill(2009)had college students remember a past experiential purchase(e.g.,concert,road trip)or a past material purchase(e.g.,clothing,electronics)and found that experiential purchases increased well-being over material purchases via in-creased relatedness and decreased social comparison.By making life satisfaction contingent on the acquisition of material posses-sions(Richins&Dawson,1992),materialists may be likely to ne-glect other important needs,fostering dissatisfaction with life.Materialism may also impair need satisfaction as a result of de-creased gratitude.As a social emotion,gratitude often leads people to feel connected to others(Algoe,2012).If gratitude is impaired, individuals may be less likely to have those relatedness needs met.Gratitude may also be closely related to autonomy:if one is able to be appreciative for the positive aspects of one’s life,it might make it easier for one to freely engage in other necessary but less enjoyable tasks.Gratitude may be positively related to compe-tency,given that individuals may feel empowered when they per-ceive support from those in their social world;however,gratitude could instead impair competence if individuals perceive that they cannot meet important goals without the support of others.Recent are suggestive of a relationship between gratitude,need satisfac-tion,and life satisfaction.Boehm,Lyubomirsky,and Sheldon (2012;as cited by Lyubomirsky&Layous,2013)demonstrated that both a gratitude and an optimism intervention positively affected life satisfaction through increases in need satisfaction(particularly relatedness and autonomy).Similarly,Sheldon et al.(2010)found that longitudinal interventions to increase need satisfaction pro-duced increases in happiness.Thus,in general,we would expect grateful people to be more likely to have their psychological needs met,and be more satisfied with their lives.4.The present studyWe examine the potential mediating role that need satisfaction and gratitude have for the relationship between materialism andJ.-A.Tsang et al./Personality and Individual Differences64(2014)62–6663life satisfaction.We hypothesized that these variables would medi-ate the relationship between materialism and life satisfaction both directly and in-sequence.Specifically,we hypothesized that mate-rialism would predict decreased gratitude and need satisfaction. These variables,in turn,should uniquely predict life satisfaction and explain why materialists are less satisfied with their lives.In addition,we expected to see sequential mediation,with material-ism predicting decreased gratitude,in turn predicting impairments to need satisfaction and therefore life satisfaction(see Fig.1).5.Method5.1.Participants and procedureParticipants were246(129female)members of the marketing department subject pool from a mid-sized,private university in the southwestern United States,with an average age of21 (range=18–25years).6%were sophomores,74%juniors,and20% seniors.Less than1%of the sample was freshman.75%were Cau-casian,8%Hispanic,5%Asian,5%African American,5%were of mixed race and1%‘‘other.’’Data collection occurred during the Fall 2012semester and was terminated at the end of one semester.Participants completed the10–15min survey in partial fulfill-ment of a course requirement.Data was collected via self-report questionnaires using Qualtrics survey software.Potential respon-dents were sent a link to the anonymous survey via e-mail.5.2.Measures5.2.1.MaterialismWe measured materialism using the15-item version of Richins and Dawson’s(1992)materialism scale.The scale measures three dimensions of materialism withfive items each:happiness,cen-trality,and success.In the present research,only thefive-item hap-piness dimension was utilized(sample item,‘‘My life would be better if I owned certain things I don’t have’’,1=Strongly Disagree, 5=Strongly Agree).A higher score on the happiness dimension of materialism suggests that the respondent views material posses-sions as a route to happiness.This subscale had satisfactory reli-ability for our sample,a=.72.5.2.2.GratitudeDispositional gratitude was measured using the GQ-6 (McCullough et al.,2002).This six-item measure has good psychometric properties(sample item,‘‘I have so much in life to be thankful for’’,1=Strongly disagree,7=Strongly agree).Reliability for this sample was good,a=.80.5.2.3.Need satisfactionNeed satisfaction was measured using the Balanced Measure of Psychological Needs(BMPN;Sheldon&Hilpert,2012).The BMPN has three subscales with six items each:relatedness,competence and autonomy.Participants responded on a1–5Likert-type scale (1=no agreement,5=much agreement).Sample items included:‘‘I felt a sense of contact with people who care for me,and whom I care for’’(relatedness),‘‘I struggled doing something I should be good at’’(competence,reverse-scored),and‘‘I was really doing what interests me’’(autonomy).Reliability for this sample was good for the total scale(a=.80),but low for the relatedness (a=.61),autonomy(a=.52),and competence subscales(a=.66). Due to these low subscale reliabilities,we opted to focus on the to-tal need satisfaction scale score in our analyses.5.2.4.Life satisfactionWe measured life satisfaction with thefive-item Satisfaction with Life Scale(SWLS;Diener,Emmons,Larsen,&Griffin,1985). Items are rated on a7-point Likert-type scale(1=strongly disagree, 7=strongly agree;sample item,‘‘I am satisfied with my life’’).Reli-ability for this sample was good,a=.88.6.ResultsMeans,standard deviations,reliabilities,and correlations are gi-ven in Table1.Prior to analysis,gratitude was square-root trans-formed to improve normality and satisfy test assumptions.All other variables satisfied normality assumptions and had skew in acceptable ranges;because gratitude was reflected during trans-formation,it was re-reflected to maintain original directionality (Tabachnick&Fidell,2007).Results were not qualitatively different with the transformed variable.Mediation was analyzed using the PROCESS macro for SPSS (Model6;Hayes,2013).PROCESS calculates a bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrapped confidence interval(10,000resamples) for the size of each indirect effect,with significant mediation indi-cated by a confidence interval that does not contain zero.To yield standardized coefficients,all variables were converted to z-scores prior to analysis.See Fig.2.Together,the overall model explained21%of the variance in life satisfaction.As predicted and consistent with prior research,there was a significant total effect from materialism to life satisfaction, b=À.24,p<.001.We next sought to determine whether gratitude and need satisfaction would mediate this relationship,both un-iquely and in-sequence.As predicted,there was significant media-tion overall,estimate=À.12,95%CI[À.19,À.06],with our mediators explaining50%of the link between materialism and life-satisfaction.With the mediators controlled,the direct link be-tween materialism and life satisfaction was still significant, b=À.12,p=.048.Thus,our mediators explained approximately half of the association between materialism and life-satisfaction.We next decomposed the mediated effect into three compo-nents.First,gratitude uniquely mediated the relationship between materialism and life satisfaction(independent of need satisfac-tion),estimate=À.05,95%CI[À.11,À.01].As materialism in-creased,gratitude decreased,b=À.32,p<.001.Gratitude,in turn, fed uniquely into life satisfaction,b=.17,p=.01.Decreased grati-tude appeared to play a unique mediating role in explaining why materialists are less satisfied with their lives.In contrast,reduced need satisfaction did not significantly mediate the relationship between materialism and life-satisfactionTable1Descriptive statistics and correlations.M SD1231.Materialism13.79 3.602.Gratitude36.62 4.99À.32⁄⁄⁄3.Life sat24.357.01À.24⁄⁄⁄.35⁄⁄⁄4.Need sat61.489.02À.23⁄⁄⁄.47⁄⁄⁄.40⁄⁄⁄Note.⁄⁄⁄p<.001.64J.-A.Tsang et al./Personality and Individual Differences64(2014)62–66independently of gratitude,estimate=À.02,95%CI[À.08,.01]. Materialism did not uniquely predict need satisfaction,b=À.08, p=.17,although need satisfaction did uniquely predict life satis-faction,b=.30,p<.001.In summary,reduced need satisfaction did not,without gratitude,explain why materialists report less life satisfaction.Finally,we examined whether gratitude and need satisfaction would operate in-sequence to mediate the relationship between materialism and life satisfaction.Materialism predicted decreased gratitude,b=À.32,p<.001,which predicted need satisfaction, b=.45,p<.001,which predicted life satisfaction,b=.30,p<.001. The three-path mediation was significant,estimate=À.04,95%CI [À.08,À.02].Although need satisfaction did not uniquely mediate the link between materialism and life satisfaction,it did play a small,indirect mediating role,following gratitude.*7.DiscussionConsistent with predictions,gratitude and need satisfaction played important mediating roles for the negative relationship between materialism and life satisfaction,mediating50%of the link between materialism and life satisfaction.As in past research,we found that materialism was negatively associated with well-being,with comparable effect sizes(Burroughs& Rindfleisch,2002;Christopher et al.,2009;Richins&Dawson, 1992).Our results suggested that a considerable proportion of the relationship between materialism and decreased life satisfaction can be explained by the decreased gratitude that high materialists experience,and the resultant decreases in basic psychological needs.When the mediation was further decomposed,we found that it appeared to be a function of three smaller indirect effects.Grati-tude in the absence of need satisfaction was a mediator in its own right of the relationship between materialism and decreased life satisfaction.To a certain extent this is not surprising,given the robust relationship between gratitude and various indices of well-being in past research(Wood et al.,2010).If it is in fact diffi-cult to value both materialism and gratitude at the same time, anything that increases materialism would likely be related to a decrease in gratitude and a decrease in the benefits associated with gratitude.In contrast,need satisfaction did not uniquely mediate the relationship between materialism and life satisfaction in the absence of gratitude.This suggests that the decrease in life satis-faction associated with materialism is not simply due to an inabil-ity of materialists to get their basic needs satisfied.Instead,need satisfaction plays an indirect role through its relationship with gratitude.The significant path from materialism to decreased gratitude, decreased need satisfaction,and onto decreased life satisfaction suggests an additional reason why materialism is related to life satisfaction.High materialists are less happy in part because they find it harder to be grateful for what they have.This decrease in gratitude is associated with detriments in basic psychological needs,which are needed in order for individuals to thrive.This suggests a number of potential intervention points for increasing life satisfaction in individuals who are high in materialism.One method,as suggested by some(Lambert et al.,2009;Polak& McCullough,2006)is to increase gratitude,possibly through a gratitude diary intervention(e.g.,Emmons&McCullough,2003). Another possibility is to address materialists’unmet psychological needs(e.g.,Rodrigue,Baz,Widows,&Ehlers,2005;Rodrigue, Widows,&Baz,2006).This may be a viable option if gratitude interventions turn out to be less effective in highly materialistic individuals due to potential value conflicts between materialism and gratitude(Bauer,Wilkie,Kim,&Bodenhausen,2012).Future research can compare the effectiveness of interventions targeted at gratitude versus basic psychological needs in addressing the relationship between materialism and life satisfaction.Other areas for future research include searching for addi-tional mediators.The specific paths in our model,though small, yielded significant mediation in the aggregate.However,future research could explore other mediators.Additionally,the low reliabilities for the need satisfaction subscales in our study pre-vented us from fully exploring whether specific psychological needs were especially relevant to materialism,gratitude and life satisfaction.Future research can investigate whether particular needs such as relatedness are affected by materialism and grati-tude,and whether decreases in specific needs affect life satisfac-tion differently.Though we suggest that materialism affects gratitude,the cross-sectional,correlational design of our study does not allow us to know the causal relationship between materialism and grat-itude with certainty.In fact,other researchers(Lambert et al., 2009)have presented experimental evidence that gratitude caus-ally affects materialism,although they did not rule out causality in the opposite direction.We suspect that the relationship between materialism and gratitude is most likely bidirectional:increases in materialism can lead individuals to be less grateful for what they already have,but increases in gratitude might also lessen material-ism and its detrimental effects(Polak&McCullough,2006).Exper-imental research is needed that manipulates both materialism and gratitude in order to test the possibility of a reciprocal relationship between these two variables.Similarly,our study was limited by use of a college sample,which could have restricted the range of associations and potentially weakened effects.Such a college sam-ple may thus have limited generalizability,although the material-ism-life-satisfaction link has been found to be robust in both college and community samples(e.g.,Richins&Dawson,1992; Roberts&Clement,2007).Positive psychology interventions have been increasing in pop-ularity as individuals become interested not only in alleviating negative affect,but also in increasing life satisfaction and well-being.Much of the intervention research utilizes populations from wealthy nations where materialism continues to increase in norm-ativity(Kasser,2004).Yet these interventions tend to overlook materialism and its link to life satisfaction.As research extends our knowledge about the relationship between materialism and life satisfaction,psychologists can become better equipped to help people shift focus from what they have not,to savoring and appre-ciating what they do have.AcknowledgementWe would like to thank Dr.Shawn Latendresse for his feedback regarding our statistical analyses.⁄Analyses were also conducted with the relatedness,autonomy,and competencesubscales of the need satisfaction scale.Relatedness and autonomy served as indirectmediators following petence served as both a direct and an indirectmediator.J.-A.Tsang et al./Personality and Individual Differences64(2014)62–6665ReferencesAlgoe,S.B.(2012).Find,remind,and bind:The functions of gratitude in everyday relationships.Social and Personality Psychology Compass,6,455–469.Bauer,M. 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考研英语一阅读理解真题大全这类有很长同位语的的句子,其实就是纸老虎,目的就是为了打断我们的思路,割裂前后之间的语义,从而造成理解困难,应付这种语句,我们要先找出其主语,从整理上了解清晰,下文是我为你细心编辑整理的考研英语一阅读理解真题大全,盼望对你有所关心,更多内容,请点击相关栏目查看,感谢!考研英语一阅读理解真题大全1Text 1Among the annoying challenges facing the middle class is one that will probably go unmentioned in the next presidential campaign: What happens when the robots come for their jobs?Dont dismiss that possibility entirely. About half of U.S. jobs are at high risk of being automated, according to a University of Oxford study, with the middle class disproportionately squeezed. Lower-income jobs like gardening or day care dont appeal to robots. But many middle-class occupations-trucking, financial advice, software engineering — have aroused their interest, or soon will. The rich own the robots, so they will be fine.This isnt to be alarmist. Optimists point out that technological upheaval has benefited workers in the past. The Industrial Revolution didnt go so well for Luddites whose jobs were displaced by mechanized looms, but it eventually raised living standards and created more jobs than it destroyed. Likewise, automation should eventually boost productivity, stimulate demand by driving down prices, and free workers from hard, boring work. But in the medium term, middle-class workers may need a lot of help adjusting.The first step, as Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee argue in The Second Machine Age, should be rethinking education and job training. Curriculums —from grammar school to college- should evolve to focus less on memorizing facts and more on creativity and complex communication. V ocational schools should do a better job of fostering problem-solving skills and helping students work alongside robots. Online education can supplement the traditional kind. It could make extra training and instruction affordable. Professionals trying to acquire new skills will be able to do so without going into debt.The challenge of coping with automation underlines the need for the U.S. to revive its fading business dynamism: Starting new companies must be made easier. In previous eras of drastic technological change, entrepreneurs smoothed the transition by dreaming up ways to combine labor and machines. The best uses of 3D printers and virtual reality havent been invented yet. The U.S. needs the new companies that will invent them.Finally, because automation threatens to widen the gap between capital income and labor income, taxes and the safety net will have to be rethought. Taxes on low-wage labor need to be cut, and wage subsidies such as the earned income tax credit should be expanded: This would boost incomes, encourage work, reward companies for job creation, and reduce inequality.Technology will improve society in ways big and small over the next few years, yet this will be little comfort to those who find their lives and careers upended by automation. Destroying the machines that are coming for our jobs would be nuts. But policies to help workers adapt will be indispensable.21.Who will be most threatened by automation?[A] Leading politicians.[B]Low-wage laborers.[C]Robot owners.[D]Middle-class workers.22 .Which of the following best represent the author’s view?[A] Worries about automation are in fact groundless.[B]Optimists opinions on new tech find little support.[C]Issues arising from automation need to be tackled[D]Negative consequences of new tech can be avoidedcation in the age of automation should put more emphasis on[A] creative potential.[B]job-hunting skills.[C]individual needs.[D]cooperative spirit.24.The author suggests that tax policies be aimed at[A] encouraging the development of automation.[B]increasing the return on capital investment.[C]easing the hostility between rich and poor.[D]preventing the income gap from widening.25.In this text, the author presents a problem with[A] opposing views on it.[B]possible solutions to it.[C]its alarming impacts.[D]its major variations.考研英语一阅读理解真题大全2TEXT 1King Juan Carlos of Spain once insistedkings dont abdicate, they die in their sleep. But embarrassing scandals and the popularity of the republicans left in the recent Euro-elections have forced him to eat his words and stand down. So, does the Spanish crisis suggest that monarchy is seeing its last days? Does that mean the writing is on the wall for all European royals, with their magnificent uniforms and majestic lifestyles?The Spanish case provides arguments both for and against monarchy. When public opinion is particularly polarized, as it was following the end of the France regime, monarchs can rise above mere polities and embody a spirit of national unity.It is this apparent transcendence of polities that explains monarchys continuing popularity as heads of state. And so, the Middle East expected, Europe is the most monarch-infested region in the world, with 10 kingdoms (not counting Vatican City and Andorra). But unlike their absolutist counterparts in the Gulf and Asia, most royal families havesurvived because they allow voters to avoid the difficult search for anon-controversial but respected public figure.Even so, kings and queens undoubtedly have a downside. Symbolic of national unity as they claim to be, their very history-and sometimes the way they behave today-embodies outdated and indefensible privileges and inequalities. At a time when Thomas Piketty and other economists are warming of rising inequality and the increasing power of inherited wealth, it is bizarre that wealthy aristocratic families should still be the symbolic heart of modern democratic states.The most successful monarchies strive to abandon or hide their old aristocratic ways. Princes and princesses have day-jobs and ride bicycles, not horses (or helicopters). Even so, these are wealthy families who party with the international 1%, and media intrusiveness makes it increasingly difficult to maintain the right image.While Europes monarchies will no doubt be smart enough to survive for some time to come, it is the British royals who have most to fear from the Spanish example.It is only the Queen who has preserved the monarchys reputation with her rather ordinary (if well-heeled) granny style. The danger will come with Charles, who has both an expensive taste of lifestyle and a pretty hierarchical view of the world. He has failed to understand that monarchies have largely survived because they provide a service-asnon-controversial and non-political heads of state. Charles ought to know that as English history shows, it is kings, not republicans, who are the monarchys worst enemies.21. According to the first two paragraphs, King Juan Carlos of Spain[A]eased his relationship with his rivals.[B]used to enjoy high public support.[C]was unpopular among European royals.[D]ended his reign in embarrassment.22. Monarchs are kept as head of state in Europe mostly[A]to give voters more public figures to look up to.[B]to achieve a balance between tradition and reality.[C]owing to their undoubted and respectable status.[D]due to their everlasting political embodiment.23. Which of the following is shown to be odd, according to Paragraph 4?[A] The role of the nobility in modern democracies.[B] Aristocrats excessive reliance on inherited wealth.[C] The simple lifestyle of the aristocratic families.[D] The nobilitys adherence to their privileges.24. The British royals have most to fear because Charles[A]takes a tough line on political issues.[B]fails to change his lifestyle as advised.[C]takes republicans as his potential allies.[D]fails to adapt himself to his future role.25. Which of the following is the best title of the text?[A]Carlos, Glory and Disgrace Combined[B]Charles, Anxious to Succeed to the Throne[C]Charles, Slow to React to the Coming Threats[D]Carlos, a Lesson for All European Monarchs考研英语一阅读理解真题大全3Text 1The decision of the New York Philharmonic to hire Alan Gilbert as its next music director has been the talk of the classical-music world ever since the sudden announcement of his appointment in 2022. For the most part,the response has been favorable,to say the least. “Hooray! At last!” wrote Anthony Tommasini,a sober-sided classical-music critic.One of the reasons why the appointment came as such a surprise,however,is that Gilbert is comparatively little known. Even Tommasini,who had advocated Gilbert‘s appointment in the Times,calls him “an unpretentious musician with no air of the formidable conductor about him.” As a description of the next music director of an orchestra that has hitherto been led by musicians like Gustav Mahler and Pierre Boulez,that seems likely to have struck at least some Times readers as faint praise.For my part,I have no idea whether Gilbert is a great conductor or even a good one. To be sure,he performs an impressive variety of interesting compositions,but it is not necessary for me to visit AveryFisher Hall,or anywhere else,to hear interesting orchestral music. All I have to do is to go to my CD shelf,or boot up my computer and download still more recorded music from iTunes.Devoted concertgoers who reply that recordings are no substitute for live performance are missing the point. For the time,attention,and money of the art-loving public,classical instrumentalists must compete not only with opera houses,dance troupes,theater companies,and museums,but also with the recorded performances of the great classical musicians of the 20th century. There recordings are cheap,available everywhere,and very often much higher in artistic quality than today‘s live performances; moreover,they can be “consumed” at a time and place of the listener’s choosing. The widespread availability of such recordings has thus brought about a crisis in the institution of the traditional classical concert.One possible response is for classical performers to program attractive new music that is not yet available on record. Gilbert‘s own interest in new music has been widely noted:Alex Ross,a classical-music critic,has described him as a man who is capable of turning the Philharmonic into “a markedly different,more vibrant organization.” But what will be the nature of that difference? Merely expanding the orchestra’s repertoire will not be enough. If Gilbert and the Philharmonic are to succeed,they must first change the relationship between America‘s oldest orchestra and the new audience it hops to attract.21. We learn from Para.1 that Gilbert‘s appointment has[A]incurred criticism.[B]raised suspicion.[C]received acclaim.[D]aroused curiosity.22. Tommasini regards Gilbert as an artist who is[A]influential.[B]modest.[C]respectable.[D]talented.23. The author believes that the devoted concertgoers[A]ignore the expenses of live performances.[B]reject most kinds of recorded performances.[C]exaggerate the variety of live performances.[D]overestimate the value of live performances.24. According to the text,which of the following is true of recordings?[A]They are often inferior to live concerts in quality.[B]They are easily accessible to the general public.[C]They help improve the quality of music.[D]They have only covered masterpieces.25. Regarding Gilbert‘s role in revitalizing the Philharmonic,the author feels[A]doubtful.[B]enthusiastic.[C]confident.[D]puzzled.考研英语一阅读理解真题大全4Text 1In the 2022 film version of The Devil Wears Prada ,Miranda Priestly, played by Meryl Streep, scolds her unattractive assistant for imagining that high fashion doesn’t affect her, Priestly explains how the deep blue color of the assistant’s sweater descended over the years from fashion shows to departments stores and to the bargain bin in which the poor girl doubtless found her garment.This top-down conception of the fashion business couldn’t be more out of date or at odds with the feverish would described in Overdressed, Eliazabeth Cline’s three-year indictment of “fast fashion”. In the last decade or so ,advances in technology have allowed mass-market labels such as Zara ,HM, and Uniqlo to react to trends more quickly and anticipate demand more precisely. Quicker turnarounds mean less wasted inventory, more frequent release, and more profit. These labels encourage style-conscious consumers to see clothes as disposable-meant to last only a wash or two, although they don’t advertise that –and to renew their wardrobe every few weeks. By offering on-trend items at dirt-cheap prices, Cline argues, these brands have hijacked fashion cycles, shaking an industry long accustomed to a seasonal pace.The victims of this revolution , of course ,are not limited to designers. For HM to offer a $5.95 knit miniskirt in all its 2,300-pius stores around the world, it must rely on low-wage overseas labor, order in volumes that strain natural resources, and use massive amounts of harmful chemicals.Overdressed is the fashion world’s answer to consumer-activist bestsellers like Michael Pollan’s The Omnivore’s Dilemma.“Mass-produced clothing ,like fast food, fills a hunger and need, yet is non-durable and wasteful,” Cline argues. Americans, she finds, buy roughly 20 billion garments a year – about 64 items per person – and no matter how much they give away, this excess leads to waste.Towards the end of Overdressed, Cline introduced her ideal, a Brooklyn woman named Sarah Kate Beaumont, who since 2022 has made all of her own clothes – and beautifully. But as Cline is the first to note, it took Beaumont decades to perfect her craft; her example can’t be knocked off.Though several fast-fashion companies have made efforts to curb their impact on labor and the environment – including HM, with its green Conscious Collection line –Cline believes lasting change can only be effected by the customer. She exhibits the idealism common to many advocates of sustainability, be it in food or in energy. Vanity is a constant; people will only start shopping more sustainably when they can’t afford not to.21. Priestly criticizes her assistant for her[A] poor bargaining skill.[B] insensitivity to fashion.[C] obsession with high fashion.[D] lack of imagination.22. According to Cline, mass-maket labels urge consumers to[A] combat unnecessary waste.[B] shut out the feverish fashion world.[C] resist the influence of advertisements.[D] shop for their garments more frequently.23. The word “indictment” (Line 3, Para.2) is closest in meaning to[A] accusation.[B] enthusiasm.[C] indifference.[D] tolerance.24. Which of the following can be inferred from the lase paragraph?[A] Vanity has more often been found in idealists.[B] The fast-fashion industry ignores sustainability.[C] People are more interested in unaffordable garments.[D] Pricing is vital to environment-friendly purchasing.25. What is the subject of the text?[A] Satire on an extravagant lifestyle.[B] Challenge to a high-fashion myth.[C] Criticism of the fast-fashion industry.[D] Exposure of a mass-market secret.考研英语一文章到此就结束了,欢迎大家下载使用并丰富,共享给更多有需要的人。
考点14 阅读之词义猜测(解析版)【命题趋势】词义猜测题型是高考中必考题型,每年考察1-2题。
所以词义猜测题型也是考生需要复习的考点。
词义猜测,即阅读中的完形填空。
可以通过前后句子中的关键词寻找相对应的词。
只要找到方法,拿下词义猜测轻而易举。
当然,着需要我们掌握足够的词汇量才能游刃有余!【重要考向】一、了解词义猜测题型的基本设题方式和基本提示词;二、掌握词义猜测解题技巧;考向一识别词义猜测题【典例】【2022年新高考全国卷Ⅰ阅读理解C篇】Wendy Wilson, extra care manager at 60 Penfold Street, one of the first to embark on the project, said: “Residents really welcome the idea of the project and the creative sessions. We are looking forward to the benefits and fun the project can bring to people here.”30. What do the underlined words “embark on” mean in paragraph 7?A. Improve.B. Oppose.C. Begin.D. Evaluate.【参考答案】词义猜测题。
根据文章倒数第二段“Residents really welcome the idea of the project and the creative sessions. We are looking forward to the benefits and fun the project can bring to people here. (居民们非常欢迎该项目的想法和创意会议。
我们期待这个项目能给这里的人们带来好处和乐趣)”以及划线处前的“one of the first (第一批人之一)”可知Wendy Wilson是着手这项工程的人之一,划线处的含义与C项:“Begin (开始)”含义相近。
2018年全国硕士研究生入学统一考试英语(一)Section I Use of EnglishDirections:Read the following text. Choose the best word (s) for each numbered blank and mark A, B, C or D on the ANSWER SHEET. (10 points)Trust is a tricky business. On the one hand, it's a necessary condition 1 many worthwhile things: child care, friendships, etc. On the other hand, putting your 2, in the wrong place often carries a high 3.4, why do we trust at all? Well, because it feels good. 5 people place their trust in an individual or an institution, their brains release oxytocin, a hormone that 6 pleasurable feelings and triggers the herding instruct that prompts humans to 7 with one another. Scientists have found that exposure 8 this hormone puts us in a trusting 9: In a Swiss study, researchers sprayed oxytocin into the noses of half the subjects; those subjects were ready to lend significantly higher amounts of money to strangers than were their 10 who inhaled something else.11 for us, we also have a sixth sense for dishonesty that may 12 us. A Canadian study found that children as young as 14 months can differentiate 13 a credible person and a dishonest one. Sixty toddlers were each 14 to an adult tester holding a plasticc ontainer. The tester would ask, “What’s in here?” before looking into the container, smiling, and exclaiming, “Wow!” Each subject was then invited to look 15. Half of them found a toy; the other half 16 the container was empty-and realized the tester had 17 them.Among the children who had not been tricked, the majority were 18 to cooperate with the tester in learning a new skill, demonstrating that they trusted his leadership. 19, only five of the 30 children paired with the “20”tester participated in a follow-up activity.1. [A] from [B] for [C] like [D] on2. [A] attention [B] concern [C] faith [D] interest3. [A] benefit [B] price [C] debt [D] hope4. [A] Again [B] Instead [C] Therefore [D] Then5. [A] When [B] Unless [C] Although [D] Until6. [A] selects [B] applies [C] produces [D] maintains7. [A] connect [B] compete [C] consult [D] compare8. [A] at [B] to [C]of [D] by9. [A] context [B] mood [C] period [D] circle10.[A] counterparts [B] substitutes [C] colleagues [D]supporters11.[A] Odd [B] Funny [C] Lucky [D] Ironic12.[A] protect [B] delight [C] surprise [D] monitor13.[A] over [B] within [C] toward [D] between14.[A] added [B] transferred [C] introduced [D] entrusted15.[A] out [B] inside [C] around [D] back16.[A] remembered [B] proved [C] insisted [D] discovered17.[A] fooled [B]wronged [C] betrayed [D] mocked18.[A] forced [B] willing [C] hesitant [D] entitled19.[A] For instance [B] As a result [C] On the whole [D] In contrast20.[A] inflexible [B] incapable [C] unreliable [D] unsuitableSection II Reading ComprehensionPart ADirections:Read the following four texts. Answer the questions below each text by choosing A, B, C or D. Mark your answers on the ANSWER SHEET. (40 points)Text 1Among the annoying challenges facing the middle class is one that will probably go unmentioned in the next presidential campaign: What happens when the robots come for their jobs?Don't dismiss that possibility entirely. About half of U.S. jobs are at high risk of being automated, according to a University of Oxford study, with the middle class disproportionately squeezed. Lower-income jobs like gardening or day care don't appeal to robots. But many middle-class occupations-trucking, financial advice, software engineering — have aroused their interest, or soon will. The rich own the robots, so they will be fine.This isn't to be alarmist. Optimists point out that technological upheaval has benefited workers in the past. The Industrial Revolution didn't go so well for Luddites whose jobs were displaced by mechanized looms, but it eventually raised living standards and created more jobs than it destroyed. Likewise, automation should eventually boost productivity, stimulate demand by driving down prices, and free workers from hard, boring work. But in the medium term, middle-class workers may need a lot of help adjusting.The first step, as Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee argue in The Second Machine Age, should be rethinking education and job training. Curriculums —from grammar school to college- should evolve to focus less on memorizing facts and more on creativity and complex communication. Vocational schools should do a better job of fostering problem-solving skills and helping students work alongside robots. Online education can supplement the traditional kind. It could make extra training and instruction affordable. Professionals trying to acquire new skills will be able to do so without going into debt.The challenge of coping with automation underlines the need for the U.S. to revive its fading business dynamism: Starting new companies must be made easier. In previous eras of drastic technological change, entrepreneurs smoothed the transition by dreaming up ways to combine labor and machines. The best uses of 3D printers and virtual reality haven't been invented yet. The U.S. needs the new companies that will invent them.Finally, because automation threatens to widen the gap between capital income and labor income, taxes and the safety net will have to be rethought. Taxes on low-wage labor need to be cut, and wage subsidies such as the earned income tax credit should be expanded: This would boost incomes, encourage work, reward companies for job creation, and reduce inequality.Technology will improve society in ways big and small over the next few years, yet this will be little comfort to those who find their lives and careers upended by automation.Destroying the machines that are coming for our jobs would be nuts. But policies to help workers adapt will be indispensable.21.Who will be most threatened by automation?[A] Leading politicians.[B]Low-wage laborers.[C]Robot owners.[D]Middle-class workers.22 .Which of the following best represent the author’s view?[A] Worries about automation are in fact groundless.[B]Optimists' opinions on new tech find little support.[C]Issues arising from automation need to be tackled[D]Negative consequences of new tech can be avoidedcation in the age of automation should put more emphasis on[A] creative potential.[B]job-hunting skills.[C]individual needs.[D]cooperative spirit.24.The author suggests that tax policies be aimed at[A] encouraging the development of automation.[B]increasing the return on capital investment.[C]easing the hostility between rich and poor.[D]preventing the income gap from widening.25.In this text, the author presents a problem with[A] opposing views on it.[B]possible solutions to it.[C]its alarming impacts.[D]its major variations.Text 2A new survey by Harvard University finds more than two-thirds of young Americans disapprove of President Trump’s use of Twitter. The implication is that Millennials prefer news from the White House to be filte red through other source, Not a president’s social media platform.Most Americans rely on social media to check daily headlines. Yet as distrust has risen toward all media, people may be starting to beef up their media literacy skills. Such a trend is badly needed. During the 2016 presidential campaign, nearly a quarter of web content shared by Twitter users in the politically critical state of Michigan was fake news, according to the University of Oxford. And a survey conducted for BuzzFeed News found 44 percent of Facebook users rarely or never trust news from the media giant.Young people who are digital natives are indeed becoming more skillful at separating fact from fiction in cyberspace. A Knight Foundation focus-group survey of young people between ages 14and24 found they use “distributed trust” to verify stories. Theycross-check sources and prefer news from different perspectives—especially those that are open about any bias. “Many young people assume a great deal of personalresponsibility for educating themselves and actively seeking out opposing viewpoints,” the survey concluded.Such active research can have another effect. A 2014 survey conducted in Australia, Britain, and the United States by the University of Wisconsin-Madison found that young people’s reliance on social media led to greater political engagement.Social media allows users to experience news events more intimately and immediately while also permitting them to re-share news as a projection of their values and interests. This forces users to be more conscious of their role in passing along information. A survey by Barna research group found the top reason given by Americans for the fake news phenomenon is “reader error,” more so than made-up stories or factual mistakes in reporting. About a third say the problem of fake news lies in “misinterpretation or exagger ation of actual news” via social media. In other words, the choice to share news on social media may be the heart of the issue. “This indicates there is a real personal responsibility in counteracting this problem,” says Roxanne Stone, editor in chief at B arna Group.So when young people are critical of an over-tweeting president, they reveal a mental discipline in thinking skills – and in their choices on when to share on social media.26. According to the Paragraphs 1 and 2, many young Americans cast doubts on[A] the justification of the news-filtering practice.[B] people’s preference for social media platforms.[C] the administrations ability to handle information.[D] social media was a reliable source of news.27. The phrase “beer up”(Line 2, Para. 2) is closest in meaning to[A] sharpen[B] define[C] boast[D] share28. According to the knight foundation survey, young people[A] tend to voice their opinions in cyberspace.[B] verify news by referring to diverse resources.[C] have s strong sense of responsibility.[D] like to exchange views on “distributed trust”29. The Barna survey found that a main cause for the fake news problem is[A] readers outdated values.[B] journalists’ biased reporting[C] readers’ misinterpreta tion[D] journalists’ made-up stories.30. Which of the following would be the best title for the text?[A] A Rise in Critical Skills for Sharing News Online[B] A Counteraction Against the Over-tweeting Trend[C] The Accumulation of Mutual Trust on Social Media.[D] The Platforms for Projection of Personal Interests.Text 3Any fair-minded assessment of the dangers of the deal between Britain's National Health Service (NHS) and DeepMind must start by acknowledging that both sides mean well. DeepMind is one of the leading artificial intelligence (AI) companies in the world. The potential of this work applied to healthcare is very great, but it could also lead to further concentration of power in the tech giants. It Is against that background that the information commissioner, Elizabeth Denham, has issued her damning verdict against the Royal Free hospital trust under the NHS, which handed over to DeepMind the records of 1.6 million patients In 2015 on the basis of a vague agreement which took far too little account of the patients' rights and their expectations of privacy.DeepMind has almost apologized. The NHS trust has mended its ways. Further arrangements- and there may be many-between the NHS and DeepMind will be carefully scrutinised to ensure that all necessary permissions have been asked of patients and all unnecessary data has been cleaned. There are lessons about informed patient consent to learn. But privacy is not the only angle in this case and not even the most important. Ms Denham chose to concentrate the blame on the NHS trust, since under existing law it “controlled” the data and DeepMind merely “processed" it. But this distinction misses the point that it is processing and aggregation, not the mere possession of bits, that gives the data value.The great question is who should benefit from the analysis of all the data that our lives now generate. Privacy law builds on the concept of damage to an individual from identifiable knowledge about them. That misses the way the surveillance economy works. The data of an individual there gains its value only when it is compared with the data of countless millions more.The use of privacy law to curb the tech giants in this instance feels slightly maladapted. This practice does not address the real worry. It is not enough to say that the algorithms DeepMind develops will benefit patients and save lives. What matters is that they will belong to a private monopoly which developed them using public resources. If software promises to save lives on the scale that dugs now can, big data may be expected to behave as a big pharm has done. We are still at the beginning of this revolution and small choices now may turn out to have gigantic consequences later. A long struggle will be needed to avoid a future of digital feudalism. Ms Denham's report is a welcome start.31.Wha is true of the agreement between the NHS and DeepMind ?[A] It caused conflicts among tech giants.[B] It failed to pay due attention to patient’s rights.[C] It fell short of the latter's expectations[D] It put both sides into a dangerous situation.32. The NHS trust responded to Denham's verdict with[A] empty promises.[B] tough resistance.[C] necessary adjustments.[D] sincere apologies.33.The author argues in Paragraph 2 that[A] privacy protection must be secured at all costs.[B] leaking patients' data is worse than selling it.[C] making profits from patients' data is illegal.[D] the value of data comes from the processing of it34.According to the last paragraph, the real worry arising from this deal is[A] the vicious rivalry among big pharmas.[B] the ineffective enforcement of privacy law.[C] the uncontrolled use of new software.[D] the monopoly of big data by tech giants.35.The author's attitude toward the application of AI to healthcare is[A] ambiguous.[B] cautious.[C] appreciative.[D] contemptuous.Text 4The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) continues to bleed red ink. It reported a net loss of $5.6 billion for fiscal 2016, the 10th straight year its expenses have exceeded revenue. Meanwhile, it has more than $120 billion in unfunded liabilities, mostly for employee health and retirement costs. There are many bankruptcies. Fundamentally, the USPS is in a historic squeeze between technological change that has permanently decreased demand for its bread-and-butter product, first-class mail, and a regulatory structure that denies management the flexibility to adjust its operations to the new realityAnd interest groups ranging from postal unions to greeting-card makers exertself-interested pressure on the USPS’s ultimate overseer-Congress-insisting that whatever else happens to the Postal Service, aspects of the status quo they depend on get protected. This is why repeated attempts at reform legislation have failed in recent years, leaving the Postal Service unable to pay its bills except by deferring vital modernization.Now comes word that everyone involved---Democrats, Republicans, the Postal Service, the unions and the system's heaviest users—has finally agreed on a plan to fix the system. Legislation is moving through the House that would save USPS an estimated $28.6 billion over five years, which could help pay for new vehicles, among other survival measures. Most of the money would come from a penny-per-letter permanent rate increase and from shifting postal retirees into Medicare. The latter step would largely offset the financial burden of annually pre-funding retiree health care, thus addressing a long-standing complaint by the USPS and its union.If it clears the House, this measure would still have to get through the Senate – where someone is bound to point out that it amounts to the bare, bare minimum necessary to keep the Postal Servi ce afloat, not comprehensive reform. There’s no change to collective bargaining at the USPS, a major omission considering that personnel accounts for 80 percent of the agency’s costs. Also missing is any discussion of eliminating Saturday letter delivery. That common-sense change enjoys wide public support and would save the USPS $2 billion per year. But postal special-interest groups seem to have killed it, at least in the House. The emerging consensus around the bill is a sign that legislators are getting frightened about a politically embarrassing short-term collapse at the USPS. It is not,however, a sign that they’re getting serious about transforming the postal system for the 21st century.36.The financial problem with the USPS is caused partly by[A]. its unbalanced budget.[B] .its rigid management.[C] .the cost for technical upgrading.[D]. the withdrawal of bank support.37. According to Paragraph 2, the USPS fails to modernize itself due to[A]. the interference from interest groups.[B] .the inadequate funding from Congress.[C] .the shrinking demand for postal service.[D] .the incompetence of postal unions.38.The long-standing complaint by the USPS and its unions can be addressed by[A] .removing its burden of retiree health care.[B] .making more investment in new vehicles.[C] .adopting a new rate-increase mechanism.[D]. attracting more first-class mail users.39.In the last paragraph, the author seems to view legislators with[A] respect.[B] tolerance.[C] discontent.[D] gratitude.40.Which of the following would be the best title for the text?[A] .The USPS Starts to Miss Its Good Old Days[B] .The Postal Service: Keep Away from My Cheese[C] .The USPS: Chronic Illness Requires a Quick Cure[D] .The Postal Service Needs More than a Band-AidPart BDirections:The following paragraphs are given in a wrong order. For Questions 41-45, you are required to reorganize these paragraphs into a coherent article by choosing from the list A-G and filling them into the numbered boxes. Paragraphs C and F have been correctly placed. Mark your answers on ANSWER SHEET. (10 points)A. In December of 1869, Congress appointed a commission to select a site and prepare plans and cost estimates for a new State Department Building. The commission was also to consider possible arrangements for the War and Navy Departments. To the horror of some who expected a Greek Revival twin of the Treasury Building to be erected on the other side of the White House, the elaborate French Second Empire style design by Alfred Mullett was selected, and construction of a building to house all three departments began in June of 1871.B. Completed in 1875, the State Department's south wing was the first to be occupied, with its elegant four-story library (completed in 1876), Diplomatic Reception Room, and Secretary's office decorated with carved wood, Oriental rugs, and stenciled wall patterns.The Navy Department moved into the east wing in 1879, where elaborate wall and ceiling stenciling and marquetry floors decorated the office of the Secretary.C. The State, War, and Navy Building, as it was originally known, housed the three Executive Branch Departments most intimately associated with formulating and conducting the nation's foreign policy in the last quarter of the nineteenth century and the first quarter of the twentieth century-the period when the United States emerged as an international power. The building has housed some of the nation's most significant diplomats and politicians and has been the scene of many historic events.D. Many of the most celebrated national figures have participated in historical events that have taken place within the EEOB's granite walls. Theodore and Franklin D. Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Lyndon B. Johnson, Gerald Ford, and George H. W. Bush all had offices in this building before becoming president. It has housed 16 Secretaries of the Navy, 21 Secretaries of War, and 24 Secretaries of State. Winston Churchill once walked its corridors and Japanese emissaries met here with Secretary of State Cordell Hull after the bombing of Pearl Harbor.E. The Eisenhower Executive Office Building (EEOB) commands a unique position in both the national history and the architectural heritage of the United States. Designed by Supervising Architect of the Treasury, Alfred B. Mullett, it was built from 1871 to 1888 to house the growing staffs of the State, War, and Navy Departments, and is considered one of the best examples of French Second Empire architecture in the country.F. Construction took 17 years as the building slowly rose wing by wing. When the EEOB was finished, it was the largest office building in Washington, with nearly 2 miles of black and white tiled corridors. Almost all of the interior detail is of cast iron or plaster; the use of wood was minimized to insure fire safety. Eight monumental curving staircases of granite with over 4,000 individually cast bronze balusters are capped by four skylight domes and two stained glass rotundas.G. The history of the EEOB began long before its foundations were laid. The first executive offices were constructed between 1799 and 1820. A series of fires (including those set by the British in 1814) and overcrowded conditions led to the construction of the existing Treasury Building. In 1866, the construction of the North Wing of the Treasury Building necessitated the demolition of the State Department building.41. à Cà42. à 43. à F à 44 à 45.Part CDirections:Read the following text carefully and then translate the underlined segments into Chinese. Your translation should be written neatly on the ANSWER SHEET. (10 points) Shakespeare’s life time was coincident with a period of extraordinary activity and achievement in the drama. By the date of his birth Europe was witnessing the passing of the religious drama, and the creation of new forms under the incentive of classical tragedy and comedy. These new forms were at first mainly written by scholars and performed by amateurs, but in England, as everywhere else in western Europe, the growth of a class of professional actors was threatening to make the drama popular, whether it should be new or old, classical or medieval, literary or farcical. Court, school organizations of amateurs, and the traveling actors were all rivals in supplying a widespread desire for dramaticentertainment; and (47) no boy who went a grammar school could be ignorant that the drama was a form of literature which gave glory to Greece and Rome and might yet bring honor to England.When Shakespeare was twelve years old, the first public playhouse was built in London. For a time literature showed no interest in this public stage. Plays aiming at literary distinction were written for school or court, or for the choir boys of St. Paul’s and the royal chapel, who, however, gave plays in public as well as at court.(48)but the professional companies prospered in their permanent theaters, and university men with literature ambitions were quick to turn to these theaters as offering a means of livelihood. By the time Shakespeare was twenty-five, Lyly, Peele, and Greene had made comedies that were at once popular and literary; Kyd had written a tragedy that crowded the pit; and Marlowe had brought poetry and genius to triumph on the common stage - where they had played no part since the death of Euripides. (49)A native literary drama had been created, its alliance with the public playhouses established, and at least some of its great traditions had been begun.The development of the Elizabethan drama for the next twenty-five years is of exceptional interest to students of literary history, for in this brief period we may trace the beginning, growth, blossoming, and decay of many kinds of plays, and of many great careers. We are amazed today at the mere number of plays produced, as well as by the number of dramatists writing at the same time for this London of two hundred thousand inhabitants. (50)To realize how great was the dramatic activity, we must remember further that hosts of plays have been lost, and that probably there is no author of note whose entire work has survived.Section III WritingPart A51. Directions:Write an email to all international experts on campus inviting them to attend the graduation ceremony. In your email you should include time, place and other relevant information about the ceremony.You should write about 100 words neatly on the ANSEWER SHEETDo not use your own name at the end of the email. Use “Li Ming” instead. (10 points) Part B52. Directions:Write an essay of 160-200 words based on the picture below. In your essay, you should write neatly on the ANWSER SHEET.Do not sign you own name at the end of the letter, use “Li Ming ” instead.Do not write the address .(10 points)2018年全国硕士研究生入学统一考试英语(一)试题答案详解注意:英语试卷为花卷,以答案内容进行核对Section I Use of English1、【答案】[B] for【解析】此处考察介词的用法。
2023新高考一卷英语原题及参考答案2023年普通高等学校招生全国统一考试(新高考全国I卷)英语学科注意事项:1.答卷前,考生务必将自己的姓名、准考证号填写在答题卡上。
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1.What will Jack probably do this weekend?A.Go camping.B.Visit a friend.C.Watch a film.2.What does the woman ask the man to do?A.Take care of her bags.B.Pack the food for her.C.Check the train sche dule.3. When will the man see Bob?A.This FridayB.This SaturdayC.Next Monday4.Why does the man apologizeA.For the terrible food.B.For the overchargeC.For the waiter's rudeness.5.What are the speakers talking aboutA.Writing a book.B.Holding a celebration.C.Buying a present.第二节(共15小题;每小题1.5分,满分22.5分)听下面5段对话或独白。
Comparison of Artificial Neural Network and Regression Models in SoftwareEffort EstimationI.F. Barcelos Tronto, J.D. Simões da Silva, N. Sant'Anna1Laboratory for Computing and Applied Mathematics - LACBrazilian National Institute for Space Research - INPEC. Postal 515 – 12245-970 – São José dos Campos - SPBRAZILE-mail: {iris_barcelos, demisio, nilson}@lac.inpe.brKeywords: software effort, artificial neural network, regression analysis, software development estimateAbstract: Estimating development effort remains a complex problem attracting considerable research attention. Improving the estimation techniques available to project managers would facilitate more effective control of time and budgets in software development. In this paper, predictive Artificial Neural Network and regression based models are investigated, comparing the performance of both methods. The results show that ANNs are effective in effort estimation.1. IntroductionThe continuous hardware and software development, jointly with the world economical interaction phenomenon has contributed to the competitiveness increase between producing and delivering companies of software product and services. In addition, there has been a growing need to produce low cost high quality software in a short time.A quality level and international productivity can be achieved through the use of effective software management process, focalizing people, product, process, and project. The project requires planning and accompaniment supported by a group of activities, among which the estimates (effort, resources, time, etc.) are fundamental, because they supply a guide for the other activities. The predictive process involves the set of procedures presented in the Figure 1 [1].Software size estimates are important to determine the software project effort [2], [3,] [4], [5]. However, according to the last research reported by the Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology - MCT, in 2001, only 29% of the companies accomplished size estimates and 45,7% accomplished software effort estimate [6]. There is not a specific study that identifies the causes of the effort low estimates index, but the reliability level of the models can be a possible cause. These data presented by MCT evidences the importance to use an effort estimate alternative approach, through which one can have reliable estimates with simple execution model.Figure 1. The predictive process [1]Predicting software development effort with high precision is still a great challenge for project managers. Consequently, there is an ongoing, high level activity in this research field in order to build, to evaluate, and to recommend prediction techniques [7], [8], [9], [10], [11], [12] [13], [14]. A large number of different predictive models (estimation models and predictive models are considered synonyms) have been proposed over the last years. They range from mathematical functions (e.g. regression analysis [11] and COCOMO [7]) to machine learning models - ML (e.g., estimation by analogy [9], clustering techniques [10], artificial neural artificial – ANN [14], and regression trees [15]). In contrast to a regression model which is defined by a mathematical formula, ML models are not defined by a mathematical formula but may take on many different shapes.Despite the number of research activities, there is still a doubt to advise practitioners as to what prediction models they should select, because the studies have not converged to similar answers.There are a number of factors that should be considered in the selection of a prediction technique, and it is likely that trade-offs will need to be made in the process. Technique selection should be driven by both organizational needs and capability. In terms of need, the most common aim is to maximize the accuracy in prediction; however, other issues may also need to be considered. For instance, a technique that produces slightly less accurate but generally more robust models might be preferred, especially in cases where the organizations do not have access to locally calibrated, well-behaved data sets. While it is very positive that more sophisticated (and potentially more useful) techniques are being employed to build predictive models, genuine benefits will be achieved if the techniques are appropriately used.In this paper, however, the main focus is on investigating the accuracy of the predictions using ANN-based and regression models. A case study was performed to examine the potential of two approaches: a multi-layer perceptron neural network and a linear regression model, using the COCOMO database (7).The paper is organized as follows: Section 2 provides some background information on the different prediction techniques that are used as the basis for the study accomplished. It is followed by a description of the ANN and regression techniques (Sections 3 and 4, respectively) and the case study itself presented in the Section 5. The paper concludes with discussion on the significance of the results and ideas to the continuity of the research.2. The prediction techniquesAccurate and consistent prediction of resource requirements is a crucial component in the effective management of software projects. In despite of extensive research over the last 20 years, the software community is still significantly challenged when it comes to effective resource prediction. On the whole, research efforts have focused on the development of techniques that are quantitatively based, in an effort to remove or reduce subjectivity in the estimation process. Examples of this work include the original parametric and regression-based models: Function Points Analysis [16], COCOMO Models [7], [17] e Ordinal Regression Model [11].However, other techniques for the exploratory data analysis, such as clustering, case-based reasoning and ANN have been effective as a means of predicting software project effort. Zhong et al. [10] describe the use of clustering to predict software quality. A case-based approach called ESTOR was developed for software effort estimation [18]. Vicinanza et al. have shown that ESTOR was comparable to a specialist and it performs significantly better than COCOMO and Function Points on restricted samples of problems. Karunanithi et al. [19] reports the use of neural networks for predicting software reliability, including experiments with both feedforward and Jordan networks with a cascade correlation learning algorithm. Wittig and Finnie [20] describe their use of back propagation learning algorithms on a multilayer perceptron in order to predict development effort. An overall error rate (MMRE) obtained which compares favorably with other methods.Another study by Samson et al. [14] uses an Albus multiplayer perceptron in order to predict software effort. They use Boehm’s COCOMO dataset. The work compares linear regression with a neural networks approach using the COCOMO dataset. But, both approaches seem to perform badly with MMRE of 520,7% and 428,1%, respectively.Srinivasan and Fisher [14] also report the use of a neural network with a back propagation learning algorithm. They found that the neural network outperformed other techniques and gave results de MMRE= 70%. However, it is not clear how the dataset was divided for training and validation purposes.Khoshgoftaar et al. [21] presented a case study considering real time software to predict the testability of each module from source code static measures. They consider ANNs as promising techniques to build predictive models, because they are capable of modeling non linear relationships.Finally, in the last years, a great interest on the use of ANNs has grown. ANNs have been successfully applied to several problem domains, in areas such as medicine, engineering, geology, and physics, in general to designsolutions for estimate problems, classification, control, etc. They can be used as predictive models because they are modeling techniques capable of modeling complex functions.In this work, the artificial neural networks methodology is used to predicting software development effort (in man-hour) from the project size (given by the amount of source code lines). A comparative analysis was accomplished between a regression model and an ANN model that were calibrated and tested in this study.3. Artificial neural networksANNs are massively parallel systems inspired by the architecture of biological neural networks, comprising simple interconnected units (artificial neurons). The neuron computes a weighted sum of its inputs and generates an output if the sum exceeds a certain threshold. This output then becomes an excitatory (positive) or inhibitory (negative) input to other neurons in the network. The process continues until one or more outputs are generated.Figure 2 shows an artificial neuron that computes the weighted sum of its n inputs, and generates an output of y . The neural network results from the arrangement of such units in layers, which are interconnected one to another. The resulting architectures solve problems by learning the characteristics of the available data of related to the problem. There exist many different learning algorithms. Feed-forward Multilayer Perceptrons are the most commonly used form of ANN, although many more sophisticated neural networks have been proposed. Multi-layer architectures are mostly trained by the error back propagation algorithm that requires a differentiable activation function.The ANN is initialized with random weights and gradually learns the relationships implicit in a training data set by adjusting its weights when presented to these data. Among the several available training algorithms the error back propagation is the most used by software metrics researchers.In general the studies concerned with the use of ANNs to predict software development effort have focused mostly on the accuracy comparison of algorithmic models rather than on the suitability of the approach for building software effort prediction systems. An example is the work of Witting and Finnie [22]. They explore the use of a multilayer neural network on the Desharnais and Australian Software Metrics Association (ASMA) data sets. For the Desharnais data set they randomly split the projects three times between 10 test and 71 training (a procedure we largely follow in our analysis). The results from three validations sets are aggregated and yield a high level of accuracy (Desharnais MMRE = 27% and ASMA MMRE = 17%) although some outlier values are excluded. However, other factors such as exploratory value and configurability are equally important and also need to be investigated.4. Linear regressionLinear regression attempts at finding linear relationship between one or more predictor parameters and a dependent variable, minimizing the mean square of the error across the range of observations in the data set. Some researchers have tried building simple local models, e.g. Kok et al. [23], using this type of approach. The philosophy is essentially one of solving local prediction problems before attempting at constructing universal models. The resulting prediction systems take the form:n n ext X X Y βββ,...,110+= (1)Where Y est is the estimated value and X 1, …, X n are independent variables, for example project size (in source code lines), that the estimator has found to significantly contribute to the prediction of effort. A disadvantage with this technique is its vulnerability to extreme outlier values although robust regression techniques, that are less sensitivityto such problems, have been successfully used [5]. Another potential problem is the impact of co-linearity – the tendency of independent variables to be strongly correlated with one another – upon the stability of a regression type prediction system.5. The case studyThe analysis undertaken in this study deals with a set of measures taken from COCOMO dataset [7]. The aim of the case study was to compare two different prediction techniques: ANN and regression models.In this section, we describe the data set used in our analysis, summarize the data preparation activities, and explain the approach followed in to build the models and application, and discusses the results.5.1. The data setThe dataset used in this work is COCOMO a public available data set consisting of a total of 63 projects at the time of this study. It was used for describing and testing one of the most important effort estimative methods: the COCOMO model, implemented by Boehm [7]. Furthermore, various methods have been already applied on it [11]. The variables that describe each project are presented in [7]. The effort is represented by the variable EsforcoIT (the amount of man-hour for the software integration and test phase). The systems are mainly written using the programming languages COBOL, PLI, HMI and FORTRAN. The area types are mainly business, scientific and system software.5.2. Independent variables preparationAll of the 63 completed projects were used in our analysis. The dataset doesn't include effort measures for development phase, but the total effort is given by the variable MMACT. However, the objective is to generate a model that allows predicting effort for each development phase. Thus, we calculated the effort for the requirements specification, product design, detailed design, code and unit test, and integration and test phases, based on the MMACT and in the effort indicators given in [7]. The effort IT was considered to be the dependent variable.The choice of the independent variables was accomplished using the General Regression Models -GRM module, implemented by the software package STATISTICA. It was implemented the best-subset model-building technique for finding the "best" model from a number of possible models. The subset adjusted R-square statistic allowed direct comparisons and choice of the “best" subset between ten models. The independent variables that compose this model are RELY, ACAP, AEXP, MODP, and TOTKDSI.We performed a stepwise regression for the COCOMO projects using the variables presented above. The stepwise regression builds a prediction model by adding to the model, at each stage, the variable with the highest partial correlation to the response variable, taking into account all variables currently in the model. Its aim is to find the set of predictors that maximize F. F accesses whether the regressors, taken together, are significantly associated with the response variable. The criteria used to add a variable is whether it increases the F value for the regression by some specified amount k. When a variable reduces F, also by some specified amount w, it is removed from the model.The stepwise regression results show that only the variable TOTKDSI present a beta value significant (beta = 0,671) and F = 14,85257. When we use only the variable TOTOKSI, the F-value (used as an overall F-test of the relationship between the dependent variable and the set in independent variables) is more strong: F = 50,05215.Consequently, in this work only TOTKDSI is used to build the ANN and regression model. Future works will involve the COCOMO cost drivers and modes. Likewise,Boehm [7] has shown that the most important predictor for these projects is TOTKDSI – thousands of delivered source instructions.5.3. Training and evaluationEstimates of the accuracy of prediction obtained from the training data set are always optimistic. To get a more realistic estimate of the accuracy of prediction we followed the similar procedure as in [11]. Based on this process, we omitted a subset of projects (the test dataset), we next developed a model with the remaining projects (the learning data set), and finally we assessed the predictive accuracy of the model on the test dataset. In this way, we constructed the learning dataset by removing every sixth project starting from the sixth project.Thus, the learning dataset was constructed by removing the projects 6, 12,18,24,30,36,42,48,54 and 60. Since we used all 63 projects of the COCOMO database in order to build our models, the learning dataset contained 53 projects.It is to be noticed that each system imposes a set of constraints on data representation. When there are several variables with nominal values in the project database, the data are normalized to fit the interval [0,1]. No normalization was required for the regression analysis.The neural network was implemented with 1 input, 9 units in the first hidden layer, 4 units in the second layer, and 1 output neuron, using the logistic function. The input variable was TOTKDSI and the neural network was trained to estimate effort IT. The training phase was repeated 15 times, in a search for the best network to solve the problem. Besides, different neural network architectures were tried. But, the results presented in this paper correspond to the neural network with the best generalization performance.The linear regression model was calibrated using stepwise backward method. After a number of experiments, we achieved a final regression model.The predictions obtained from the ANN and the regression model (after training on the COCOMO data) using the test dataset are shown in Table 1.Table 1. Regression and ANN estimates EsforçoIT act Regression ANN6,753 26,026 26,558659,3 93,678 52,373705 673,847 859,7053120,05 202,332 165,46671,12 21,885 25,548512,93 48,577 33,010710,58 111,104 63,0066375,24 969,057 638,45233,5 26,846 26,76469,98 31,561 27,9878Different error measurements have been used by various researchers, but for this project the main measure for model accuracy is the Mean Magnitude of Relative Error (MMRE) and R 2. MMRE is the mean of absolute percentage errors:nM M M MMRE n i act act est ⎟⎟⎠⎞⎜⎜⎝⎛−=∑=100*1 (2)where there are n projects; M act is the actual effort; and M est is the predicted effort.Others researchers have used the adjusted R squared or the coefficient of determination to indicate the percentage of variation in the dependent variable that is “explained” in terms of the independent variables. In this paper, we have decided to adopt the MMRE and the adjusted squared R as prediction performance indicators since these are widely used.We performed a linear regression/correlation analysis to “calibrate” the predictions, with M est treated as the independent variable and M act treated as the dependent variable. The R 2 value indicates the amount of variation in the actual values accounted for by a linear relationship with the estimated values. R 2 values close to 1.0 suggest a strong linear relationship and those close to 0.0 suggest no such relationship.Table 2 summarizes the MRE and R 2 values resulting from a linear regression of M est and M act values for the stepwise backward regression and the ANN models, and results obtained by Kemerer [24] with COCOMO-Basic, Function Points and SLIM models. These results indicate that stepwise regression’s and ANN’s predictions show a strong linear relationship with the actual development effort values for the ten test projects. On this dimension, the performance of the ANN model is less then SLIM’s performance in Kemerer’s experiments, but better than the stepwise regression models. In terms of MMRE, the ANN performs strikingly well compared to the other approaches, and regression model.Table 2. The predictive accuracyRegress. Eq. R- square MMREANN -1,68+1,676*x 0,85 420Regression -1,71+1,623*x 0,83 462FPA -37 +0,96x 0,58 103COCOMO 27,7 + 0,156x 0,70 610SLIM 49,9 +0,082x 0,89 772This experiment illustrates two points. In an absolute sense, none of the models perform particularly well at estimating software development effort, particularly along the MMRE dimension, but in a relative sense ANN approach is competitive with traditional models. In general, even though MMRE is high in the case of all models, a high R2 suggests that by “calibrating” a model’s prediction in a new environment, the adjusted model prediction can be reliably used. Along the R2 dimension, the ANN method provides significant fits to the data.6. Conclusion and future worksThis paper has compared the neural network method to traditional approaches for software effort estimation. A neural network and a stepwise regression analysis were applied to Boehm’s COCOMO dataset in order to predict effort from size. The results of the ANN prediction compare favorably with those obtained from linear regression.The neural network performed better than linear regression on this data set and we can see why. As illustrated in Figure 3, in this dataset there is one observation with very large efforts that are out of all proportions to their sizes, as well as one with a small effort for its size, and a linear function of size will not be very successful at predicting these. On the other hand, an attempt to solve these outliers could influence negatively in the accuarcy regression in accomplishing prediction for other observations. Once the ANN not is limited to a linear function, it can deal moreA more homogeneous dataset with no outliers would show the regression method to better advantage. ANN would also perform better on such a dataset.Although ANN has demonstrated significant advantages in certain circumstances, it does not replace regression and should be regarded as another powerful tool to be used in the calibration of software effort models. Consequently, new experiments are being led in order to combine the ANN and regression techniques to training and testing a software effort prediction, on other datasets.References[1] R. Agarval, “Estimating Software projects,” Software Engineering Notes, Julho 2001, vol. 26, no 4, pp. 60-57.[2] C. Jones, Estimating Software Costs, McGraw-Hill, 1986.[3] R. Lai, and S. Huang, “A model for estimating the size of a formal communication protocol specification and itsimplementation,” IEEE Transaction on Soft. 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