2005-2020 Consumer lifestyles in China_Euromonitor

Consumer Lifestyles - China

Euromonitor International

December 2010

List of Contents and Tables

Structure of the Report (1)

Consumer Trends (1)

Disparate Measures (1)

Shoppingland! (2)

Multi-dimensional Shoppers (3)

the Rise and Rise of https://www.doczj.com/doc/e42131507.html, (4)

Specialist Pragmatist Consumers (4)

Consumer Segmentation (5)

Babies and Infants (5)

Kids (6)

Tweenagers (6)

Teens (7)

Twenty-somethings (8)

Thirty-somethings (8)

Middle-aged Adults (9)

Older Population (9)

Table 1Consumer Segmentation: 2005-2009 (10)

Table 2Consumer Segmentation: 2010-2020 (10)

People (10)

Population (11)

Marital Status (11)

Town Or Country (12)

Table 3Population by Age: 2005-2009 (13)

Table 4Population by Age: 2010-2020 (14)

Table 5Male Population by Age: 2005-2009 (14)

Table 6Male Population by Age: 2010-2020 (14)

Table 7Female Population by Age: 2005-2009 (14)

Table 8Female Population by Age: 2010-2020 (15)

Table 9Population by Ethnic Groups: 2005-2009 (15)

Table 10Population by Ethnic Groups: 2010-2020 (16)

Table 11Population by Marital Status: 2005-2009 (17)

Table 12Population by Marital Status: 2010-2020 (17)

Table 13Marriage and Divorce Rates/Average Age at First Marriage: 2005-2009 (17)

Table 14Population by Urban/Rural Location and Population Density: 2005-2009 (18)

Table 15Population by Urban/Rural Location and Population Density: 2010-2020 (18)

Table 16Population by Major Cities: 2005-2009 (18)

Table 17Population by Major Cities: 2010-2020 (18)

House and Home (18)

Households by Annual Disposable Income (18)

Households by Number of Occupants (19)

Single-person Households (19)

Couples Without Children (20)

Couples With Children (20)

Single-parent Families (21)

Table 18Annual Disposable Income per Household (Current Value): 2005-2009 (21)

Table 19Annual Disposable Income per Household (Constant 2009 Value): 2010-

2020 (21)

Table 20Households by Number of Persons: 2005-2009 (22)

Table 21Households by Number of Persons: 2010-2020 (22)

Table 22Households by Type: 2005-2009 (22)

Table 23Households by Type: 2010-2020 (22)

Home Ownership (22)

Running Costs (23)

Shopping for Household Goods (24)

Possession of Household Durables (24)

DIY and Gardening (25)

Pet Ownership (26)

Table 24Households by Tenure: 2005-2009 (26)

Table 25Households by Tenure: 2010-2020 (26)

Table 26Households by Type of Dwelling: 2005-2009 (27)

Table 27Households by Type of Dwelling: 2010-2020 (27)

Table 28Running Costs: 2005-2009 (27)

Table 29Possession of Household Durables: 2005-2009 (27)

Table 30Possession of Household Durables: 2010-2020 (28)

Table 31Pet Population: 2005-2009 (28)

Income (28)

Average Income (28)

Average Income by Age (29)

Table 32Annual Gross and Disposable Income (Current Value): 2005-2009 (29)

Table 33Annual Gross and Disposable Income (Constant 2009 Value): 2005-2009 (29)

Table 34Annual Gross and Disposable Income (Constant 2009 Value): 2010-2020 (29)

Table 35Average Annual Gross Income by Age (Current Value): 2005-2009 (30)

Table 36Average Annual Gross Income by Age (Constant 2009 Value): 2005-2009 (30)

Consumer Expenditure (30)

Living Costs (30)

Table 37Consumer Expenditure by Broad Category (Current Value): 2005-2009 (31)

Table 38Consumer Expenditure by Broad Category (Constant 2009 Value): 2005-

2009 (31)

Table 39Consumer Expenditure by Broad Category (Constant 2009 Value): 2010-

2020 (32)

Work (32)

Working Conditions (32)

Commuting (33)

Working Women (33)

Alternative Work Options (34)

Retirement (34)

Unemployment (34)

Table 40Employed Population: 2005-2009 (35)

Table 41Employed Population: 2010-2020 (35)

Table 42Unemployed Population: 2005-2009 (35)

Table 43Unemployed Population: 2010-2020 (36)

Learning (36)

School Life (36)

University Life (37)

Adult Learning (38)

Table 44School Students: 2005-2009 (38)

Table 45Graduates: 2005-2009 (39)

Eating (including Soft Drinks) (39)

Shopping for Food and Drinks (39)

Dining in (41)

Dining Out (42)

Café Culture (42)

Table 47Consumer Expenditure on Food (Current Value): 2005-2009 (42)

Table 48Consumer Expenditure on Food (Constant 2009 Value): 2005-2009 (43)

Table 49Consumer Expenditure on Food (Constant 2009 Value): 2010-2020 (43)

Table 50Consumer Expenditure on Non-Alcoholic Beverages (Current Value): 2005-

2009 (43)

Table 51Consumer Expenditure on Non-Alcoholic Beverages (Constant 2009 Value):

2005-2009 (43)

Table 52Consumer Expenditure on Non-Alcoholic Beverages (Constant 2009 Value):

2010-2020 (44)

Table 53Consumer Foodservice by Type (Current Value): 2005-2009 (44)

Table 54Consumer Foodservice by Type (Constant 2009 Value): 2005-2009 (44)

Drinking (44)

Drinking Habits (44)

Shopping for Alcoholic Beverages (46)

Table 55Consumer Expenditure on Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco (Current

Value): 2005-2009 (46)

Table 56Consumer Expenditure on Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco (Constant 2009

Value): 2005-2009 (46)

Table 57Consumer Expenditure on Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco (Constant 2009

Value): 2010-2020 (47)

Smoking (47)

Smoking Habits (47)

Shopping for Cigarettes and Tobacco (48)

Table 58Smoking Prevalence: 2005-2009 (48)

Personal Appearance (48)

Shopping for Toiletries and Cosmetics (48)

Attitudes Towards Hair and Beauty (49)

Table 59Expenditure on Cosmetics and Toiletries (Current Value): 2005-2009 (50)

Table 60Expenditure on Cosmetics and Toiletries (Constant 2009 Value): 2005-2009 (51)

Fashion (51)

Fashion Trends (51)

Shopping for Clothes, Shoes and Luxury Goods (52)

Table 61Consumer Expenditure on Clothing and Footwear (Current Value): 2005-

2009 (53)

Table 62Consumer Expenditure on Clothing and Footwear (Constant 2009 Value):

2005-2009 (53)

Table 63Consumer Expenditure on Clothing and Footwear (Constant 2009 Value):

2010-2020 (53)

Health and Wellness (54)

Healthcare (54)

Health and Well-being (54)

Sport and Fitness (56)

Nutrition (57)

Home Medication and Vitamins (57)

Table 64Health Expenditure: 2005-2009 (58)

Table 66Obese and Overweight Population: 2005-2009 (58)

Table 67Consumer Expenditure on Health and Wellness (Current Value): 2005-2009 (58)

Table 68Consumer Expenditure on Health and Wellness (Constant 2009 Value):

2005-2009 (58)

Leisure and Recreation (59)

Staying in (59)

Going Out (60)

Public Holidays, Celebrations and Gift Giving Occasions (60)

Culture (62)

Holidays (62)

Table 69Household Possession of Cable TV: 2005-2009 (64)

Table 70Household Possession of Cable TV: 2010-2020 (64)

Table 71Consumer Expenditure on Package Holidays (Current Value): 2005-2009 (65)

Table 72Consumer Expenditure on Package Holidays (Constant 2009 Value): 2005-

2009 (65)

Table 73Consumer Expenditure on Package Holidays (Constant 2009 Value): 2010-

2020 (65)

Consumer Technology (65)

In-home Technology (65)

Portable Technology (66)

E-commerce and M-commerce (67)

Table 74Household Possession of Broadband Internet-Enabled Computers, DVD

Players and Video Game Consoles: 2005-2009 (68)

Table 75Household Possession of Broadband Internet-Enabled Computers, DVD

Players and Video Game Consoles: 2010-2020 (68)

Table 76Household Possession of Mobile Telephones and Mobile Telephone Calls:

2005-2009 (68)

Table 77Household Possession of Mobile Telephones and Mobile Telephone Calls:

2010-2020 (69)

Table 78Internet Retailing (Current Value): 2005-2009 (69)

Table 79Internet Retailing (Constant 2009 Value): 2005-2009 (69)

Transport (69)

Getting Around (69)

Air Travel (71)

Table 80Household Possession of Passenger Vehicles: 2005-2009 (72)

Table 81Household Possession of Passenger Vehicles: 2010-2020 (72)

Table 82Consumer Expenditure on Transport Services (Current Value): 2005-2009 (72)

Table 83Consumer Expenditure on Transport Services (Constant 2009 Value): 2005-

2009 (73)

Table 84Consumer Expenditure on Transport Services (Constant 2009 Value): 2010-

2020 (73)

Money (73)

Savings (73)

Loans and Mortgages (74)

Credit (75)

Table 85Savings and Savings Ratio: 2005-2009 (76)

Table 86Consumer Loans, Mortgages and Credit (Current Value): 2005-2009 (76)

Table 87Consumer Loans, Mortgages and Credit (Constant 2009 Value): 2005-2009 (76)

Table 88Financial Cards in Circulation: 2005-2009 (77)

CONSUMER LIFESTYLES IN CHINA

STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT

This report forms part of the report series that complements the Euromonitor International Countries and Consumer Database. Each country profile is structured under the following primary headings:

?Consumer Trends

?Consumer Segmentation

?People

?House and Home

?Income

?Consumer Expenditure

?Work

?Learning

?Eating (including Soft Drinks)

?Drinking

?Smoking

?Personal Appearance

?Fashion

?Health and Wellness

?Leisure and Recreation

?Consumer Technology

?Transport

?Money

The information in this report was gathered from a wide range of sources, starting with national statistics offices. This information was cross-checked for consistency, probability and mathematical accuracy.

As well, the report seeks to fill the gaps in the official national statistics by using private-sector surveys and official pan-regional and global sources. Furthermore, Euromonitor International has undertaken an extensive amount of modelling in order to generate unique datasets that complement the available national standards.

The wide range of sources used in the compilation of this report means that there are occasional discrepancies in the data, which were not reconcilable in every instance. Even when data are produced on specific parameters by the same national statistical office, such as total population in a particular year, discrepancies can occur depending on whether the data was derived from a survey, a national census or a projection and whether the data were based on mid-year or January figures.

To identify recent past trends, data are presented for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. For projections, data are presented for 2010, 2015 and 2020.

CONSUMER TRENDS

Disparate Measures

Income disparity in China is underestimated by official figures, and even much of the West is unaware how wide the gap has actually become. Of course this is not through overt negligence of the poorer communities in China, but rather through the massive concentration of growth in very focused areas of China’s geography and social strata. The government recognise a Gini co-efficient ranking of 0.47, which is above the internationally accepted World Bank recommendation of 0.40 that points to the potential for wide-scale civil unrest. But unofficial figures from The China Reform Foundation estimating the true levels of income in China place this figure closer to 0.55, which is on a par with many of South America’s developing economies.

The difference in accepted figures comes from a long-standing culture in China of not fully revealing true incomes. This is perfectly normal amongst the vast majority of Chinese who may hold more than one job on which they avoid paying taxes. Many Chinese all the way down the income ladder have a certain amount of untaxed income that may come from a side venture, or from extra work taken up outside of their normal working hours. The real trend here, though, is the one of an exponentially increasing amount of grey or hidden income amassed alongside increases in real income. Some 80% of grey income is held by the top 20% earning households, and the proportionality extends further up the ladder, too, with the top 10% earning households amassing a staggering two-thirds of all the almost RMBY10 trillion in China in 2009.

This means that the Chinese economy is bigger than official figures show by some 30%, and that the levels of savings must then be far greater than the 25%-30% assumed today. The elites in China are in fact a great deal richer than statistics show, and this works down to substantial changes in even upper-middle class earnings and savings, too.

Outlook

This trend for increased avoidance of tax on earnings at the very top is endemic in China and points to some degree of corruption at government level, most notably at the provincial level. Government measures to address income disparity through increasing minimum wages will address anxiety and unrest but not much more. As consumers in China are pragmatic, then so the government is, too. The growth of the economy, should this grey income begin to circulate more freely, will be greater than current figures allow for and Beijing will of course welcome that.

Impact

The impact on the economy of this extra liquidity offered up by the very rich will continue to push the trend for high-end luxury purchases and big-ticket items. Consumption will increase throughout the whole economy, but the highest rates of growth will be found amongst those industries that require substantial capital, and at the very top-end of consumer marketplaces ranging from fashion and jewellery to foreign holidays and cars. The continued demand for housing by the very rich, even in an inflated market, is illustrative of this extra wealth. As the housing bubble bursts, as many expect it to during 2011, much of the accrued grey income will go with it. Shoppingland!

Where shopping is fun for everyone! With much of China’s leisure and recreational space still under development even in the biggest cities, and the experience of shopping is new to most middle-class Chinese, shopping has become a major part of the recreational timetable for many Chinese. This is true not just for young families, but also for couples and groups of friends.

The rise of multi-format retail spaces in Chinese cities has acted as the catalyst for this trend as it has allowed all-year-round roofed retail environments to not only contain shops that cater for every taste, but also to include adjoining recreational spaces such as coffee shops, internet cafes, video arcades, restaurants and cinemas. In fact, these concentrated retail environments are becoming so popular that additional recreational spaces such as parks are being built around them in a back-to-front development schedule that speaks volumes of the popularity of retail therapy in China today.

These changing habits are having considerable impact on consumption in China as they work to fast-forward shoppers’ evolution and socialisation amongst a wider audience including children, elderly persons, and notably men. Decisions on purchases, ranging from groceries to flat-screen televisions, that would ordinarily be made by one member of the family, perhaps with input from his or her friends and colleagues, have now become a much

more inclusive process which may involve friends and colleagues, as well as prior research among all members of the family.

Outlook

There is no reason to think that this trend will not continue over the coming years as retailtainment is manifest further and wider across China through the continued expansion of multi-format retail environments, mega-malls, and shopping districts.

Competition from the burgeoning internet retail sector could also be seen instead as a complementary force in the expansion of retailtainment as the two phenomena offer distinctly differing services from one another. Retailtainment is as much about window-shopping and assessing suitability of goods and services as it is about actual purchases. The internet offers much in terms of a researching faculty, but some things need to be seen first-hand in order to make a final decision. In many ways the two may rely on one another increasingly over the coming years and so a more promotion-based and interactive shopping experience may take shape across China.

Impact

Socialising younger members of society into consumer habits and behaviours, as well as allowing them to build early brand associations, will have a deep impact on the marketplace of the future. This is happening both through familial shopping trips, and through groups of teenagers, boys and girls, living the ‘mall-rat’ lifestyle made famous by 1980s–and 1990s American super-malls.

The same is true for male shoppers who may not have ordinarily done much in terms of browsing and window-shopping, but as this form of retail expands, will be faster socialised into consumer culture, be much more brand aware, and at the same time be open to a wider variety of choice in products than they would otherwise have imagined. Of course this is not only true for men, but men illustrate the point much more vividly in China where, up until his early twenties, a boy’s mother will generally do much of his clothes shopping.

Multi-dimensional Shoppers

Consumers in China are increasingly looking beyond the basic functional attributes of a product and are now concerned with various other dimensions of appeal in line with more sophisticated consumer habits commonly found in developed economies. Chinese consumers are more able to use personal choice in their spending and are purchasing independently and intelligently as opposed to dictatorially. This may seem alien to many in the West and other developed economies, but Chinese consumers have relied on recommendations from social equals, and those higher up the pecking order, before making purchase decisions in the past. This is perhaps residual behaviour left over from decades of command economics and centuries of Confucian culture, but regardless, it is changing today.

Chinese consumers are interested in aesthetic appeal, innovative design, and implied status of products. They are also more interested in how specific products target their own personal needs and less interested in general observations from peers. Value-added features, which were not previously recognised or demanded in China, have now become key selling attributes in this competitive marketplace. Consumers are not just demanding leather gloves, but calfskin gloves. Washing liquid must now be complemented by fabric softener, and this softener must be packaged attractively and smell even better. Mobile phones need longer battery lives as well as faster central processing units (CPUs) with which to more effectively browse their mobile internet capabilities. Outlook

This trend is concentrated, for the moment, in the more developed urban centres, but is quickly finding its way across the whole of China’s urban and even rural environments. There will be striking growth in the proliferation of multi-dimensional consumer demands in China, both qualitatively and quantitatively. There will be growth even beyond the psychological dimensions associated with status and prosperity that will, for many consumers, turn instead to conservation, ecology, health and well-being. Gender, social group affiliations, local pride, and national and cultural pride will also become further emotional traits associated with products. Impact

The impact that this multi-dimensional consumer will have on the market will effect changes not only in the products, but also in retail channels, distribution, packaging, and advertising. Demands will increase as knowledge bases do, and global trends and events, as well as those of a local and national nature, will account for many trends. The internet will play an integral role in much of this dissemination of information as Chinese consumer trends both diverge from and converge with global tastes and global knowledge over time and not just the dictat of global brands.

the Rise and Rise of https://www.doczj.com/doc/e42131507.html,

E-commerce will potentially transform the way millions of Chinese consume every day from the smallest to the very largest of purchases. With the number of internet users now officially the highest globally, penetration of broadband internet at close to 90%, and with fibre-optic high-speed internet looming over the horizon, China’s future infrastructure for full integration into this digitally-led economy looks set. Added to this is the internet penetration of rural and interior China, which the government is looking to push through in order to better connect the entire Chinese economy.

Already figures show massive triple-digit growth over only the past few years, and this growth is exponential. The trend taps into the need for Chinese consumers to properly research items, to get the best deal, and to shop for convenience. Added to this is the exclusivity factor associated with the many and varied distributors found online that may not be located on your local high street. Fashionable Japanese and European clothing brands, hard-to-find electronic items, as well as niche products so far lacking distribution in China, are all in demand online. In many respects Chinese consumers have developed faster than the marketplace, and e-commerce is one way in which consumers can truly interact with a wider marketplace that better suits their needs.

Domestic online business-to-consumer and consumer-to-consumer retail portals such as eBay, Amazon, and Taobao have all managed to recognise a need in China for a mediator to ease through transactions that involve multiple steps in a secure and expedient manner. Taobao in particular has managed to tick all the boxes in this respect and in doing so has become the dominant force in online retail. By offering small businesses space in which to create a web-shop within the Taobao website, and linking this to a secure payment method for consumers, as well as offering a forum and chat messaging service which consumers can use to comment, leave feedback, and even chat directly to sellers live, Taobao has created a blueprint for companies looking to successfully sell online in China.

The mobile internet is also another way in which consumers are looking to spend online. The use of the mobile as a device to connect to the World Wide Web, although in the case of China not exactly the whole World Wide Web, has allowed millions more Chinese consumers with lower incomes to connect to this world. Relatively inexpensive mobile phones are usually internet ready as standard, and as technology advances, they will become increasingly faster and better equipped to offer would-be m-commerce patrons a greater online experience.

Outlook

The future for this industry looks healthy as every requirement is present and accounted for: a population of young, educated and affluent Chinese willing to act as the pioneers; an increasing customer base; and the technology that is largely already in place. Expect the e-commerce and m-commerce revolution to expand into all sectors of retail and marketing over the coming years.

Impact

Sales through online channels will increase for items available at traditional retail spaces, but also amongst goods otherwise not available to ordinary Chinese through these more traditional channels. As consumers become more familiar with and more comfortable using the online medium, consumption will increase to include services such as transportation, the paying of household bills, grocery shopping, and other smaller ticket items.

Specialist Pragmatist Consumers

A trend towards concentrating spending in areas thought to best maximise utility by sacrificing spending in other areas, or ‘trading-off’, is increasingly popular amongst Chinese urbanites. This trend involves almost pigeon-holing or categorising oneself into one very distinct group or another. Numerous examples of this trend

exist, ranging from the young professional climbing the social ladder amongst colleagues who would rather spend all of his or her disposable income on the latest designer office fashions and cosmetics at the expense of food essentials, to health-conscious middle-aged and grey Chinese who spend proportionally much higher amounts on health and wellness products and supplements than anything else. Pragmatism has long been associated with the Chinese way of thinking about themselves in the world, but never has it been so evident in consumer habits than today.

This has led to a heightened demand amongst vast swathes of Chinese consumers for the very best products in every particular market. As this trend continues, the Chinese market will develop complex tastes and demands at the luxury and high-end of every conceivable sector as people better educate themselves and evolve as consumers at a rate beyond that which their actual disposable incomes would ordinarily allow. China’s economy is fast becoming an economy of specialist consumers.

Outlook

The pragmatic inclination is not one that can be assumed to be transitory, and it should remain the case that even as incomes amongst the lower-middle classes keep their spending power below those they might consider to be their direct competitors socially and professionally, they will continue to concentrate their efforts by focusing spending on the area best-suited to achieving their immediate goals. China’s job market, academic market, and social market given the gender imbalance, are all important and competitive battlegrounds especially for young Chinese. Expect pragmatic consumption to continue as brand awareness and image become ever more of an imperative in the successful achievement of China’s grand aspirations.

Impact

Expenditure on high-end and expensive luxury items will see proportional increases that perhaps levels of incomes would not usually allow. Purchases influenced by this trend for pragmatism will be especially pronounced amongst young professionals and will include imported items carrying some amount of cachet. Designer clothing, shoes, accessories, cosmetics, jewellery and watches, imported alcohol, foodservice and even cars, will all see growth here.

As the financial services sector opens up to increasing numbers of lenders, the pragmatist consumer could be the first to make full use of any lending and credit facilities that may be available.

CONSUMER SEGMENTATION

Babies and Infants

The numbers of babies and infants have remained comparatively steady as a percentage of the total population of China since 2005. The trend over the forecast period will be one of slow decline in overall numbers within this category as a fall of almost 2 million is predicted by 2020.

Although China’s infamous ‘One-Child Policy’ has clearly had a dramatic impact on this category over the past 30 years, there are numerous other factors relating to a decreasing birth rate amongst the Chinese to take into account over the coming years. Although further relaxation in the laws regarding families being allowed only one child is imminent, according to many sources close to Beijing, the move from a rural to an urbanised populace is already having a substantial influence on the numbers of babies and infants in China and will continue to do so. Urban living and a lifestyle geared more towards career and personal endeavour over family responsibility is fast becoming the norm amongst young Chinese of child-rearing age. Add to this the financial burdens associated with being the sole carer for ageing parents, which is the legacy of the one-child policy, and the raising of a large family, even given the opportunity, does not seem appealing to most young Chinese. Spending on babies and infants will increase over the forecast period as the average income in China similarly increases. Expenditure on children comes not just from parents, but also from extended family, particularly grandparents. This is especially true during the baby and infant stages of childhood as Chinese families rally around the parents to ensure the new additions to the family want for nothing.

Impact

A huge increase in the popularity of foreign goods for babies and infants is evident in China today, not least since the domestic milk contamination scare of 2008. Quality is paramount and as incomes increase amongst the city dwelling young parents so too does spending on babies and infants. There are no barriers in this marketplace as parents aim to furnish their children with every advantage available, be it relatively expensive baby foods, pre-school education, toys, games, or pioneering gadgets or trends from the West. Childcare is one area in which China is well equipped outside of the market as extended family are assumed to be readily available on an almost full-time basis in this regard. Overall the demand for specifically baby and infant related products should continue to increase sharply over the forecast period in spite of falling numbers of babies and infants. This increasing quantitative demand will be coupled with a qualitative demand, particularly in the first- and second-tier cities across China.

Kids

A decline of almost 11% in real numbers over the review period is forecast to stabilise and eventually turn into an increase by 2020. Growth in spending, on the other hand, will follow a similar path to the previous category in that consumption in terms of quality and quantity will surely increase across many sectors of the market associated with children. This will include toys, games, food and beverages, as well as household durables, especially electronic items such as computers and video games machines.

The empowerment of children is transforming this particular consumer market. Children are very much in the frontline of China’s new domestic consumption demand and will continue to be vocal in the consumption decisions of the household. Advertising is routinely targeted at this market utilising celebrities, both domestic and foreign, as well as famous cartoon characters from the region. This junior spending power extends beyond the classic remit of toys and games, to food, and foodservice in particular. Western fast food is still seen as a luxury amongst Chinese families and a weekly trip to the local shopping mall for a taste of Western fast food is de rigueur amongst middle class Chinese eager to please their youngest members.

Kids in China are increasingly being targeted at a younger age for products such as sports clothing, footwear and electronic items like MP3 players and even mobile phones. This urge amongst kids to grow older younger is also mirrored by parents in China. Chinese parents are well aware of the importance of intellectual development at this stage in their child’s life. Edutainment and increased spending on educational and cultural pastimes are increasingly popular, even if not with the kids themselves. This can take the form of increased time spent away at weekends at historical and cultural sites, early English lessons, learning to play a musical instrument, and at the most basic level through books and learning aids.

Impact

The review period has seen spending on kids increase across all consumer markets and this trend will continue over the forecast period regardless of the growth or decline in overall numbers. Spending on kids will expand to include those items popular in the West amongst children of a similar age, as well as those items popular amongst older children during the review period. A particularly dynamic market is that of high-end electronics, particularly those portable items such as MP3 players, handheld video games machines and mobile phones amongst the top end of this age group. Although overall consumption amongst kids will be dwarfed by spending amongst older age groups, it is the potential market for a much wider range of goods amongst this age group, previously unheard of during the review period.

Parents’ attitudes towards the nutritional content of their children’s diets will also become increasingly important alongside the academic and cultural development deemed so important. This will manifest itself in a more hands-on approach to eating habits and consumption of fast food, and an increased propensity to prepare fresh food, as well as healthy alternatives to the plethora of snacks and drinks currently aimed at this market.

Tweenagers

The numbers of tweenagers in China has fallen rapidly over the review period and this trend will continue over the next five to seven years as a legacy of the One-Child Policy before any year on year growth is recorded. As with the previous two age groups, the story of numbers comes second to the actual spending on this demographic.

Tweenagers continue their consumption habits and prove a pervasive force in the household decision making process when it comes to food and entertainment spending. At this age the propensity to spend across an even wider array of sectors means that clothing and personal electronic goods become more prominent in addition to the snacks and drinks sectors. Although pocket money is almost unheard of in China, as with younger children Chinese tweenagers are doted on by parents and extended family, and this trend will continue to see spending increase over the forecast period as it has done over the review period.

As China develops its leisure and recreational facilities, tweenagers find themselves with increased options for consumption on trips to the cinema, parks, and other cultural attractions favoured by parents. Chinese children, up to the age of 18, in fact, are by Western standards extremely dependent on their parents, and children in this category are rarely allowed to venture out on their own or with friends. Instead spending by this age group is still largely chaperoned by parents. Tobacco and alcohol consumption is virtually unheard of amongst this age group.

Sports recreation becomes important to children at this age and parents in China are increasingly determined to push their children to be more proactive in this area. Detrimental factors associated with unhealthy lifestyles are a major driving force behind the increased propensity towards sports in China today, although there is a substantial gender imbalance here that will be addressed over the forecast period. Consumption of after school sports clubs, and sports equipment, as well as nutritional drinks and foods will all increase over the forecast period as both the government and parents push for greater involvement here.

Impact

Tweenagers are amongst the pioneers of the new digital China and, with the aid of their parents, will join the ranks of the teenagers and mid-twenties in propelling consumer spending on technology in China to new heights over the forecast period. Laptop and desktop computers are particularly important to this group as these items are appealing to both parents and children alike. Socialising takes place largely over the digital medium in China today with QQ and MSN video and text chat programmes commanding almost the whole of the domestic market and in many cases much of the tweenagers’ spare time. Video games systems and portable MP3 players are also increasingly important to the ever more discerning group of pre-teen consumers.

Snacks and drinks, as well as fashionable foodservice, will be the areas in which this group will really be able to push for greater spending from their parents. It is important to remember that brand loyalty and concepts of self-identity are nascent in this group and will carry over into the teen years where spending will become independent of parents whilst at the same time increasing in monetary terms. This age group has grown rapidly over the review period in terms of their spending power and will continue to grow and mimic their older counterparts in the teenager category over the coming years.

Teens

Image is key as teenagers begin to imagine themselves in modern China and exert the newfound freedoms afforded them by the open market. Although spending is largely through a parent, some amount of choice coupled with teenage growing pains keeps this particular age group amongst the most vibrant and pioneering of all consumers. This is particularly true amongst the middle classes and students who are open to Western marketing and identify themselves with global brands. On this note, brand identity becomes of vital importance while brand loyalty similarly becomes tangible amongst teens.

In terms of numbers, this group is forecast to see a drop in numbers of around a third between 2005 and 2020. A drop of 12.3% has already been recorded over the last five years. But again, this is not a story of numbers, but more of cumulative spending power. Whether this spending power will continue to grow at current rates towards the latter end of the forecast period remains to be seen, as the burden of an ageing China begins to take its toll more prominently, but growth is guaranteed amongst this age group and across diverse sectors of the consumer market.

Impact

The huge impact of Western popular media culture is having a profound impact on the tastes of young Chinese in terms of dress, music, sports, recreational, and eating habits. The general rule amongst teenagers in China is

that whatever is ‘cool’ in the United States is a must-have for Chinese teenagers; this is particularly the case amongst Chinese girls, who begin to develop an identity perhaps ahead of their male counterparts and are extremely well versed in fashion and pop cultural output from America. Popular US sitcoms with huge amounts of product placement as well as the rise of the teen-star in America are largely responsible for shifting consumer momentum.

Medium-priced electronic goods such as MP3 players, video games systems, laptops and video players are not outside of the realm of these new consumers even without direct parental input. Fashion, of course, is a huge market for this group and particularly amongst females. Men’s fashion is catching up, though. This is particularly true in the casual and sports fashion industries as marketing dollars and sporting celebrities lend themselves to concepts of identity popular amongst young Chinese today and will continue to do so over the forecast period. Chinese brands are slowly picking up market share, and even respect, amongst the fashion-conscious set, but foreign brands are still king in this marketplace and especially amongst the younger age groups.

Alcoholism has begun to make its mark amongst this age group and is a growing problem, relative to China’s recent history. The consumption of tobacco through cigarettes is also fast becoming a major problem for Chinese teens. One third of all cigarettes manufactured in the world are consumed in China, and three out of every five Chinese smokers begin smoking between the ages of 15 and 20years. A 2008 China Tobacco Control study claimed that 40 million of the country’s 130 million teens aged between 13 and 18 years have attempted smoking and 15 million are addicted. The study goes on to claim that 68% of the 130 million smoked their first cigarette before the age of thirteen.

Twenty-somethings

This is the first age group that has enjoyed a steady growth over the review period and will continue to increase for at least the next five years according to forecasts. By 2020, the number of Chinese in their twenties will sit at roughly 2008 levels of around 176 million. Again this group, similar to the teens, will spend as pioneers of new technology and be influenced by a shifting culture towards Western or global aesthetics and trends. The main difference here to all previous categories is that in this age bracket there exists both the compulsion and the means to consume in comparatively high quantity. Educated, young professionals with a more relaxed attitude to social relations and a penchant for spending on leisure and lifestyle purchases will drive dynamic growth in consumption patterns across China’s cities over the coming years as long as China can continue its economic growth.

Impact

With more money to burn and aspirations focused towards a Western lifestyle, twenty-somethings in China are being targeted by most sectors of the consumer market. High-end luxury brands and popular global brands are particularly well-served by this age group as global and domestic marketing is channelled to precisely these young educated Chinese via a plethora of media outlets. Electronics including computers, mobile phones, video players such as DVDs and Blu-ray machines, contemporary home furnishing, personal transportation units such as electric bikes, motorcycles, and cars are all highly saleable here. Financial services will also be hugely popular over the forecast period as twenty-somethings look to procure more of this Western lifestyle such as the larger purchases mentioned as well as holidays abroad and homes away from their parents.

Thirty-somethings

The number of thirty-somethings has fallen by some 30 million over the past five years and will continue to drop at this rate for the next five. Figures show that this age group will again grow by 2020 to some 200 million, a figure largely in line with current day totals. Income per head will continue to greatly increase over the forecast years just as it has exploded over the review period.

With the average income of the 30 to 35 year olds being the highest in China, it is this group that has the means to really drive forward Chinese consumption over the coming decade. Thirty-somethings today in China show a broad span of divergence in their spending patterns and this will only increase over the forecast period as the traditional Chinese family is further influenced by more Western conceptions of lifestyle away from traditional familial archetypes. People in their thirties, then, cannot necessarily be pigeon-holed as easily as can other

demographics because marriage, children, and the huge variations in income amongst this age group have major implications for spending power and choices.

Impact

A vast array of goods and services will be marketed to this age group. The thirty-somethings in China will have more in common with the older twenty-somethings than they will with the middle-aged consumers as we progress through the forecast period. A more aspirational lifestyle with one eye set firmly on the West will be the marker for this group of consumers, and with fewer thirty-somethings choosing the traditional path of marriage and kids, the market is open to increased spending on lifestyle goods and services otherwise reserved for the elite twenty-something market. Money will not be the determining factor in the consumer choices of many of these young professional men and women.

It must be remembered that the age of first marriage in China has been pushed up dramatically over the review period, but still hovers around the late twenties. For those thirty-somethings who choose to raise a family, the emphasis will be on quality and providence. Expect financial services and insurance spending to really take off amongst this age group over the forecast period as larger purchases such as homes and multiple cars become must-haves for modern Chinese families.

Middle-aged Adults

With growth of nearly 18% over the review period, and further growth of some 47 million forecast over the next five years, this segment is the largest across all age groups sitting at a comfortable half billion in 2010. Approximately half of those persons earning over US$40,000, and nearly 60% of earners in the highest bracket – over US$100,000, are in their forties. An eye on high-end items and sufficient resources to spend on themselves, families as well as extended families, which may include grandchildren by this age, constitute the main characteristics of this segment.

Impact

This is a time for a person to enjoy the fruits of his or her labour. In terms of consumption this sector will be largely subsidising spending amongst the younger age groups, right up to the twenty- and even thirty-somethings in some cases. Aside from this, the middle-aged market will be looking to spend on health and wellness, leisure, culture, and household goods as well as having the spending clout to push for houses, cars, and holidays abroad for both themselves and their families. It is within this age group that the mammoth spending, as well as the very high-end luxury and exclusivity market will be best served over the forecast period. Amongst the eldest members of this age group are those termed as being part of the ‘baby-boomer generation’, many of whom have struggled through some testing times during the Cultural Revolution and the Great Leap Forward, which younger generations have avoided. This will manifest itself, as it is evidenced in older generations in China, in an increased reliance on health and medical spending. Expect spending on high- technology medical care as well as organic and healthier food options. Supplementary vitamins and minerals, as well as medical and health services, will also be purchased in growing quantities over the forecast period as numbers rise and spending power increases.

Older Population

With growth forecast at over 40% during the coming decade, the ageing population of China represent a key trend and a major concern for economic and social planners in Beijing.

The older population of China are forced into compulsory retirement by the age of 60, or 55 for women. Many are encouraged to accept early retirement as a way to make room for younger workers to enter the jobs market. It is not uncommon for Chinese workers in state-run enterprises to retire in their 40s.

Older Chinese are traditionally charged with looking after the house and grandchildren whilst their own children go out to earn a living and support the household financially. State pensions are ample and enough to provide for this sector, but the pension outlay is under continuous review as the sheer numbers of an ageing population make state provision untenable over the longer term.

Many members of the older generations of Chinese are very keen on daily exercises. It is normal to see retired Chinese up and about in the parks and open spaces of urban China practising Tai Chi and other non-impact exercises as early as six o’clock in the morning. This can range from the highly organised groups that compete in regional competitions, to just a couple of friends going for morning stretches before breakfast with the family.

Impact

A pensions’ crisis looms on the horizon within our forecast period. Increasingly, the growing number of older Chinese will have to look for greater financial support from their offspring as well as relying on financial services such as private pension plans, health insurance, and life assurance in the future.

Spending on private health care as well as home nursing, including high-technology DIY nursing kits, and care homes will experience greater demand mirroring trends in Japan and Korea’s greying population. These trends will obviously be brought about by increasing numbers and life expectancy, but will also be further exacerbated by the legacy of the One-Child policy in its restructuring of families into what is now the third generation. A single working Chinese man or woman is potentially charged with the care of both parents, in-laws, and potentially as many as eight grandparents.

Health and well-being, as well as hobby-orientated lifestyles involving perhaps walking and hiking, recreational travelling, photography, and the traditional and ever popular pursuits of morning exercise will be key areas for marketing in a grey China. Marketing will be geared towards quality of life and longevity over the forecast period.

Table 1 Consumer Segmentation: 2005-2009

'000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 % Growth Babies/Infants (0-2 40,944 39,986 39,683 39,357 40,010 -2.3 years)

Kids (3-8 years) 92,442 87,315 85,891 84,448 82,541 -10.7 Tweenagers (9-12 years) 76,341 72,334 70,111 66,019 63,728 -16.5 Teens (13-19 years) 155,308 157,414 149,017 144,478 136,218 -12.3 People in their twenties 164,168 164,632 171,679 176,922 184,220 12.2 People in their thirties 236,912 227,204 223,426 212,271 204,460 -13.7 Middle-aged Adults (40- 415,954 438,509 451,787 473,075 489,312 17.6 64 years)

Older Population (65+ 117,810 120,167 122,886 124,720 127,531 8.3 years)

Source: National statistics, Euromonitor International

Table 2 Consumer Segmentation: 2010-2020

'000

2010 2015 2020 % Growth Babies/Infants (0-2 years) 40,050 39,502 38,207 -4.6 Kids (3-8 years) 81,429 82,165 84,079 3.3 Tweenagers (9-12 years) 62,010 56,606 59,859 -3.5 Teens (13-19 years) 126,311 105,264 99,305 -21.4 People in their twenties 194,105 208,709 176,450 -9.1 People in their thirties 193,306 166,922 200,360 3.6 Middle-aged Adults (40-64 years) 507,664 553,541 543,430 7.0 Older Population (65+ years) 129,544 149,118 181,571 40.2 Source: National statistics, Euromonitor International

PEOPLE

Population

Standing at over 1.3 billion, China’s population is the largest globally and although it may be eclipsed by India’s over the forecast period, will remain comparatively gargantuan by global standards, potentially increasing to almost 1.4 billion by 2020. Increasing life expectancy and declining birth rates have prompted Beijing to think long-term when it comes to policy implementation as it relates to population demographics. China is truly a country of strength in numbers, but the same numbers could potentially destabilise the country’s march to prosperity if proper precautionary measures are not taken.

With a falling fertility rate and increased life expectancy in modern China, the population demographics have seen fundamental shifts throughout the review period and will continue to transform similarly over the next 10 years. There is a particularly noticeable decline in the proportion of under 14s during the review period as one child policy measures began to manifest over a second generation of parents. The median age in China has crept up steadily as these lower fertility rates combine with increasing life expectancy figures across the mainland due to urbanisation, general increases in levels of prosperity, and increased and more modern healthcare provision. The proportion of female over 65s is forecast to outgrow that of their male counterparts over the forecast period in keeping with global life expectancy figures by gender.

China is made up of a majority Han population alongside 56 recognised ethnic minorities. The Han population are encouraged to spread throughout the territorial borders and so historically dominant ethnic minority culture is rapidly diminishing in favour of the cultural norms of the Han majority. This trend is particularly visible in cities such as Lhasa and Urumqi. Ethnic minorities have little power even in regional politics or economics other than perhaps a consultancy role or as the friendly face of multi-ethnic China. On a national scale ethnic minorities in China are largely invisible and increasingly choose to assimilate in terms of language, culture, and custom.

Impact

The spending dynamics of the country are massively affected by changes that are afoot in the make-up of the population. The dominant story of change in China will be that of the increasing importance of the grey consumer. As Chinese men and women live longer, the demand for goods and services catering to this ageing population will be increasingly felt. Qualitative and quantitative demands on the national healthcare system are an obvious worry for the future as Beijing is already struggling with the surge in demand. Private healthcare as well as health and well-being services and nutritional products will all experience surges in demand over the forecast period as the greying population look to subsidise the national healthcare system and prolong their lives. Home nursing services and DIY home nursing aids, which are already big business in Japan and South Korea, will also find demand over the forecast period. These products and services will prove especially popular in China as the legacy of the one child policy means that there are far fewer younger family members to fill the traditional role of carer for parents and grandparents in their old age.

Grey consumers traditionally show a penchant for spending on services, especially healthcare, leisure and travel, as they look to make the most of their twilight years. The hobbies market in particular has proven to be a growth market in similarly ageing societies across Asia. Calligraphy, digital photography, hiking, and non-contact activities such as badminton, table tennis, Tai Chi and Yoga are already popular amongst many people in China and will further gain in popularity over the coming years. Studies from the more developed Japanese grey consumer market show that older generations are also becoming trend-setters as marketing dollars spent on products aimed at the more mature market catch the eye of younger generations; recent examples being that of fold-away bicycles, hiking shoes, and digital cameras. The trend in cross-pollination marketing witnessed in Japan over the past few decades will undoubtedly affect the Chinese consumer market over the forecast period, too.

Marital Status

Marriage is still seen as an imperative for nearly all Chinese, and as a pillar of correct and proper family life and responsibility. As a means to ultimately procreate, marriage has no substitute in China that is not regarded as improper. Family life is central to the functioning of Chinese society and is as good as a requirement by both Confucian and official party standards alike. Traditional attitudes towards marriage have been slow to change and are revered even by the younger generations who are increasingly comfortable putting a romantic bent on marriage to propel it further than solely a matter of family honour and to sustain its importance in a changing

contemporary society. Cohabitation is still largely frowned upon without any formal arrangement in place as overseen by parents and extended family, but this attitude is rapidly changing in urban China and will continue to do so over the forecast period.

The numbers of singles in China is actually forecast to decline following similar decreases over the review period. This is largely due to the fact that the population pyramid is becoming top-heavy and so there are simply fewer younger persons of matrimonial age as a proportion of China’s total population. Related to this are the statistics showing a gradual increase in the average age of first marriage, which do not paint an entirely accurate picture either; although the majority of China’s young population continue to marry at the same age as previous generations, it is the educated urban dwellers who push up the figures here, and it is these young professional urbanites who are marrying at much later ages than the statistics would suggest. It is not at all unusual for young Chinese men and women to marry much closer to 30 years of age rather than the early to mid-twenties posited by the official statistics. Similar increases in the age of first child for mothers in China are evident and, according to the 2010 annual party meeting for ‘New Notions of Marriage and Child-Bearing in Households’, the average age of first-time mothers sits at just over 23 years of age, the highest in the history of the People’s Republic of China.

Divorce rates are increasing across China as a result of the slow erosion of the stigma associated with a failed marriage in a modernising China. Perhaps a more sinister trend, and one that receives very little attention in the media, is that associated with the popularity of divorce propagated by nouveau-riche Chinese, usually middle-aged men, who essentially trade-in older wives for younger models as soon as the children are old enough. The new younger wives offer a chance for more children, too. Although this is a relatively new trend, it follows on from an older trend of entertaining mistresses and, with increasing wealth spreading across China, and the taboo of divorce slowly eroding, it is one that will increase over the forecast period.

All of these changes are largely due to increased levels urbanisation and education amongst men and women in China. The changes in the lifestyles of women are particularly influential here. Women are no longer measured only by the wealth of their husbands and are fully capable of making a mark for themselves in wider society through further education and a career. Western ideals of love and romance also have a part to play in marriage today and will continue to do so over the forecast period as China increasingly interfaces with the West, especially through digital media.

Impact

By concentrating on the changing face of marriage in urban environments, it is possible to forecast continuing growth in more individualistic consumption in line with a more independent and perhaps self-centred lifestyle apart from the traditional familial roles associated with consumption in China. To be sure, family-focused spending will of course continue to be important across China’s urban and rural divide, and will also see great increases in monetary terms because of rising incomes. But it will be in those sectors dominated by the unattached urbanites such as nightlife and entertainment, tourism, sportswear and equipment, digital technology, and gym membership that giant steps will be seen, as well as diversification in alcohol, foodservice, home furnishing, and car purchases.

Men, who are traditionally shopping-averse in China, are becoming more comfortable with making individual purchases in fashion, sports, and technology especially. This will continue over the forecast period as marketing aimed at men is focused on an increasing array of goods and services in line with global marketing trends.

As China becomes more familiar with web-based transactions, it is the rise of the young urbanite that could spearhead monumental growth in this market. Internet shopping is particularly popular amongst young professional women in China today and the growth amongst these early converts as well as their male counterparts will see internet-based shopping flourish over the forecast period. Currently a large tract of this shopping is for luxury and imported goods that make their way into the mainland via Hong Kong. This illustrates that the demand in certain cities is not being fully met, and the diversification of the supply channels that is already afoot amongst young urbanites at grass-roots level.

Town Or Country

The balance between the numbers of rural versus urban dwellers is tipped only slightly in favour of the rural in 2010. With exponential growth in the numbers of urbanites, this will change over the next few years to show a

majority urban population across China’s mainland for the first time in history. The current era of coastal prosperity and the resultant income inequality between the urban Chinese and their rural counterparts will work to ensure that the story of an urbanising China continues beyond the review period, well into the forecast period. The income gap between urban and rural residents has widened from 2.8:1 in 2000 to 3.3:1 in 2009 according to The National Development and Reform Commission.

Much of the urbanisation occurring over the forecast period will take place in cities other than the already populous major cities, the so-called ‘central five’ of Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Tianjin, and Guangzhou. Future urban growth will predominantly take place around China’s second- and third-tier cities and provincial capitals that are fast developing away from the coastal metropolises and attract migration from rural areas as yet largely unaffected by China’s economic prosperity. A pattern of urbanisation can be seen most vividly in ethnic-minority home provinces such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Tibet. Cities are being built seemingly overnight and vast tracts of land are being used to build housing for ethnic Han immigrants from eastern China. With greater urbanisation comes greater consumption. That is the general rule in China prescribed over the review period and will continue to be so into the future. Consumers are brought into, and become a working part of, the marketplace. They have the means to consume through their increased incomes, and the predilection to do so through marketing and advertising. Furthermore, city dwelling necessitates consumption far beyond that of rural lifestyles.

Impact

Without going into too much detail, the urbanisation of China has been, and will continue to be, an integral part in the machine of Chinese domestic consumerism. Consumption in every sector, and amongst all age groups and social demographics, will expand qualitatively and quantitatively over the forecast period as more Chinese become urbanites. Consumption of all goods and services will continue to grow across the forecast period as Beijing ignites a second wave of consumption, even for those products and services that are perhaps reaching saturation in China’s developing economy, by developing second- and third-tier cities along the same lines as the ‘central five’ first-tier cities.

The influx of Han culture to the more remote rural areas will promote consumption of goods and services that are already popular in urban centres further east. One cannot completely discount ethnic-minority cultural tastes and fashions, but China is overwhelmingly Han in its ethnic make-up and will only become more so over the forecast period. Should specifically ethnic-minority fashions or lifestyles become prevalent, this will definitely need to be fostered by the Han majority for any form of economy of scale to make the trend viable as an enterprise.

Rural consumers have, over the review period, continued to shop in line with centuries old patterns in China. This phenomenon will continue for many of China’s rural population and will mean daily shopping at the local market for fresh produce that will be consumed within a couple of days at most. Regarding non-perishable items, rural consumers will for the most part lack the income to be swayed beyond the essential modern conveniences. Access to refrigeration is largely limited to urban environs, and most of China’s rural population currently see a television set as their next big purchase. Transportation is composed largely of bicycles and scooters and is driven by necessity rather than vanity. Thus, it will be the smaller goods that are within the price range of most rural dwellers that will find real demand in the future. Snacks, drinks, small electronic items, and low to mid-range Western branded clothing lines will be particularly well suited. Central to any demand in rural China will be the younger population who have not moved to the provincial capital or another urban city. There are moves by Beijing to attempt to close the income gap in China and concentrate on developing economic prosperity in China’s rural interior. The policy proposals are due to be put through for China’s next five-year plan and may work to afford rural Chinese a better lifestyle, but for the most part the policy seems to engender a continued push for urbanisation as a remedy for unequal distribution of income.

Table 3 Population by Age: 2005-2009

'000/as stated

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 % Growth 0-14 yrs 254,511 241,822 235,241 227,865 223,334 -12.2 15-64 yrs 927,559 945,571 956,353 968,705 977,155 5.3 65+ yrs 117,810 120,167 122,886 124,720 127,531 8.3

TOTAL 1,299,880 1,307,560 1,314,480 1,321,290 1,328,020 2.2 Median age of 35.4 36.2 36.9 37.6 38.2 2.8 years population (years)

Source: National statistics, UN, Euromonitor International

Note: As of 1st January

Table 4 Population by Age: 2010-2020

'000/as stated

2010 2015 2020 % Growth 0-14 yrs 218,397 208,646 211,890 -3.0 15-64 yrs 986,477 1,004,062 989,800 0.3 65+ yrs 129,544 149,118 181,571 40.2 TOTAL 1,334,418 1,361,826 1,383,261 3.7 Median age of population (years) 38.8 41.1 42.0 3.2 years Source: National statistics, UN, Euromonitor International

Note: As of 1st January

Table 5 Male Population by Age: 2005-2009

'000/as stated

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 % Growth 0-14 140,289 133,925 130,099 126,258 123,782 -11.8 15-64 471,889 480,670 486,650 492,719 497,284 5.4 65+ 57,582 59,156 60,531 61,503 62,971 9.4 TOTAL 669,760 673,750 677,280 680,480 684,037 2.1 Median age of male 35.0 35.7 36.4 37.0 37.7 2.7 years population (years)

Source: National statistics, UN, Euromonitor International

Note: As of 1st January

Table 6 Male Population by Age: 2010-2020

'000/as stated

2010 2015 2020 % Growth 0-14 121,161 115,433 117,368 -3.1 15-64 502,395 513,147 506,818 0.9 65+ 63,855 73,112 88,147 38.0 TOTAL 687,411 701,692 712,333 3.6 Median age of male population 38.2 40.2 40.7 2.4 years (years)

Source: National statistics, UN, Euromonitor International

Note: As of 1st January

Table 7 Female Population by Age: 2005-2009

'000/as stated

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 % Growth 0-14 114,222 107,897 105,142 101,607 99,552 -12.8 15-64 455,670 464,901 469,703 475,986 479,871 5.3 65+ 60,228 61,012 62,355 63,217 64,560 7.2 TOTAL 630,120 633,810 637,200 640,810 643,983 2.2 Median age of female 35.8 36.7 37.4 38.1 38.7 2.9 years population (years)

Source: National statistics, UN, Euromonitor International

Note: As of 1st January

Table 8 Female Population by Age: 2010-2020

'000/as stated

2010 2015 2020 % Growth 0-14 97,236 93,213 94,521 -2.8 15-64 484,082 490,915 482,982 -0.2 65+ 65,689 76,007 93,424 42.2 TOTAL 647,007 660,135 670,927 3.7 Median age of female population 39.3 41.9 43.3 4.0 years (years)

Source: National statistics, UN, Euromonitor International

Note: As of 1st January

Table 9 Population by Ethnic Groups: 2005-2009

'000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 % Growth Han 1,189,543 1,196,379 1,202,538 1,208,594 1,214,590 2.1 Mongolian 6,251 6,318 6,378 6,437 6,493 3.9 Hui 10,317 10,389 10,454 10,516 10,579 2.5 Tibetan 5,768 5,819 5,866 5,913 5,958 3.3 Uygur 8,906 8,976 9,046 9,109 9,174 3.0 Miao 9,613 9,715 9,809 9,901 9,988 3.9 Yi 8,267 8,341 8,408 8,475 8,540 3.3 Zhuang 16,357 16,368 16,366 16,374 16,381 0.1 Bouyei 3,150 3,176 3,201 3,223 3,247 3.1 Korean 1,911 1,905 1,899 1,895 1,891 -1.0 Manchu 11,000 11,040 11,072 11,109 11,143 1.3 Dong 3,153 3,182 3,208 3,233 3,258 3.3 Yao 2,856 2,889 2,920 2,949 2,978 4.3 Bai 1,968 1,984 1,998 2,013 2,027 3.0 Tujia 9,060 9,226 9,376 9,524 9,666 6.7 Hani 1,517 1,528 1,538 1,547 1,558 2.7 Kazak 1,308 1,315 1,323 1,330 1,337 2.2 Dai 1,214 1,222 1,228 1,235 1,242 2.3 Li 1,303 1,310 1,317 1,324 1,331 2.1 Lisu 659 662 665 668 671 1.8 Va 415 418 420 422 424 2.2 She 740 744 748 751 755 2.1 Gaoshan 5 5 5 6 6 8.3 Lahu 470 472 474 476 478 1.7 Shui 432 436 439 443 446 3.1 Dongxiang 576 586 596 605 613 6.3 Naxi 321 323 325 326 327 1.9 Jingpo 137 138 139 139 140 1.8 Kirgiz 168 169 170 171 171 2.1 Tu 263 266 269 272 275 4.6 Daur 137 137 138 138 139 1.4 Mulam 228 231 234 237 240 5.2 Qiang 355 363 370 377 384 8.2 Blang 96 96 97 97 98 2.0 Salar 112 113 114 115 116 3.6 Maonan 123 125 128 130 132 7.6 Gelao 642 652 661 670 678 5.6 Xibe 195 196 196 197 198 1.5 Achang 37 37 37 38 38 4.1 Pumi 35 35 36 36 36 2.3 Tajik 44 45 45 46 46 4.3