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金融市场

金融市场
金融市场

before you knew it every county had an airplane

不知不觉每个国家都有了飞机

because there was a best practice,

因为这些最佳的设计

there was a best technology and

这些最好的技术

it was not unique to any one county.

并不是一个国家所独有的

So that's why I view this course

这就是为什么我把这门课程定位为

as fundamentally about technology.

基本理论课程

I want to say something about morality

我想提一提道德问题

and about mixed feelings that people have about finance.

以及人们对金融的不同观点

I know that undergraduates--

我知道本科生

I don't know how you feel about finance.

我不知道你们是如何看待金融的

Some people have a reaction--

有些人的反应是···

if you say you're taking a course in finance

如果你说你正在上一门金融课

they think that maybe you're selling out

别人认为你在推销你自己

or maybe you value money too much and that

或者你有些拜金

you should really be in some other field.

而你应该选择其他的专业领域

This is a longstanding conflict in our thinking.

这种思想斗争广泛存在

There is some contempt for finance,I believe,

我觉得有人蔑视金融

because it make so much money for many people.

因为他让人们赚了太多的钱

Many of our students go into finance.

而且许多学生从事金融学

Yale is very strong in providing people to the financial community 耶鲁为金融界提供了大量的人才

and,I have to say,they do very well.

我必须说他们做得都很不错

My first advice is if you want to make money

我的第一个建议是如果你想赚钱

which I don't particularly advise,

虽然我并不鼓励

but if you do it's not a bad idea

但是如果你要赚钱

to go into finance.

从事金融并不是个坏主意

Just as,you know,you can make a lot of money

就像如果你懂的有机化学

with organic chemistry too.

你也能赚很多钱

I think that what you have to do as a young person 我认为作为一个年轻人你们应该做的

is develop your human capital

是发展你们的人力资本

and that means knowing how to do things.

而这意味着你们要知道怎样做事情

But there is a hostility toward finance

但是人们对于金融有敌对情绪

that I think is very fundamental

我认为这种情绪对于很多人来说

to a lot of our thinking.

是深植于心的

I want to say something about that.

我想就这几点说几句话

Part of it is that some people

出现这种情绪的原因之一

in finance get so rich.

是一些人因为金融暴富

If you look at the list of the richest people

如果你看一下财富排行榜的话

they are all connected to finance,right?

他们都与金融有或多或少的联系对吧

I mean they understand it.

我的意思是他们都懂金融

Maybe they're not--

也许他们不是

Maybe they're in publishing

也许有一些人是从事出版事业的

or some other field but they understand finance

或者是其他行业的但是他们都懂金融

and a lot of them are directly in finance.

而且他们中很多人直接从事金融业

So what do we make of that

所以我们怎么看那些人

Well part of it is we get very

我们也许会有点

We get a sort of jealousy of these people

我们对这些人有一些仇富的情绪

because why should someone have billions of dollars?

为什么有人成了亿万富翁

Did they really deserve that?

他们真的配吗

Some people (who make a lot of money)get self-important 有些人赚了很多钱就变得狂妄自大

who make a lot of money--

他们赚了很多钱

and they end up not making a lot of friends in the process. 而且他们不会交到很多朋友

The Yale University Press is publishing a new book

耶鲁大学出版了一本新书

by Steve Fraser about Well Street.

《华尔街文化史》作者是史蒂夫·弗雷瑟

He gives examples in this book about hostility

他在书中给出了一些仇富的实例

toward--it goes way back--In Fraser's book

早以前的时候···Fraser的书中写到

he give an example of--

他举了个例子关于

I've never heard of this person before,

我从来没有听过这个人

but William Durr,

他叫威廉·德尔

who was a financier in colonial America in the 1700s,

他是十八世纪美国殖民地的金融家

made a lot of money and helped finance

他赚了很多钱

the Revolutionary War in the United States.

并且资助了美国独立战争

He ended up being chased down

他最终的下场

the street by an angry mob.

却是被一群愤怒的暴徒沿街追打

People hated him and why was that?

人们都憎恨他为什么呢

Well it was partly because he got so rich

部分原因是因为他太富有了

and he started wanting to show off.

于是他想要四处炫耀

He had what they called"Livery servants" 他拥有一群被叫做“制服仆人”的仆人

not just servants,

这些并不只是仆人

but servants who were wearing livery.

而是穿着制服的仆人

It look like a military uniform.

他们的衣服就像军人穿的军装一样

35分钟

It look like aristocracy comeing back

看上去就像贵族卷土重来

in the form of

只是这次披上了

rich financial successes

财富与金融外衣

and we don't like that.

所以我们不喜欢这种事情

There is a feeling of hostility toward that. 人们对这种事情肯定有一种敌视的情绪There has been a long discussion

曾经有一次很长的讨论

about what people owe each other

关于自己欠别人多少

and how okay it is to try to make money.

而自己应该赚多少才适合

I don't know if you remermber--

我不知道你们是否还记得

I have to start erasing here--

我要把这边擦掉

one of the most well known Yale professors 一位十九世纪非常有名的

of the nineteenth century was

耶鲁大学教授

William Graham Sumner,

威廉·格雷厄姆·萨姆纳

who wrote a famous piece called,

他写了一部很有名的著作叫做

What Social Classes Owe to Each Other 《社会各阶级间的作用》

Sumener graduated from Yale in 1863.

他在1863年从耶鲁大学毕业

He was member of Skull and Bones--

他是骷髅会的成员之一

have you heard of that

听说过吗

You know that group?

听说过哪个社团吗

He spent his entire career at Yale and he wrote-- 他将毕生奉献给了耶鲁

He was Head of our social sciences department, 它是社会科学系的主任

before we had separate

社会科学是

departments of economics and psychology,etc.

经济学系与心理学系等系的前身

He was a very prominent exponent of the idea

他是个非常卓越的倡导者

that people should go out for their own interest. 他们提倡人们应该追求自己的利益

One social class does not owe anything to another 一个社会阶层对另一个社会阶层并没有亏欠and we should not feel guilty

而且我们不必为追求经济利益

about pursuing financial interests.

感到内疚

That led to an attiude among

这致使我们社会中的很大一部分人

a good segment of our society that

有这样的观点

it's okay to go out and make money

出去赚钱没什么不好的

because making money means

因为赚钱就意味着

doing productive things for the economy

为经济做了贡献

and ultimately it's a benfit to society.

并且最终这有益于社会

But we have some discomefort with that.

但是我们对此会感到有一些不快

Another book,which I haven't

另一本书虽然我还没有把他

put on reserve yet but I'm going to,

列进参考书目但是我要加上它

is by Peter Unger

是彼得·昂格尔写的

who is a philosopher.

他是个哲学家

It's a remarkable book called

这是本很出众的书

Living High and Letting Die

《让生活从高处死去》

that refers to a more broad

其中探讨的哲学范畴

philosophical issue that we have.

非常宽泛

It is that most of us are really

我们绝大多数人

making money for ourself--

我们都为自己赚钱

that's what we do with our lives--and

这就是我们的生活方式

whether or not that is moral.

赚钱方式也无论道德与否

It's not just rich people who do that--

并不是只有富人才这样做

the rest of us do it also--

所有人都这样做

and in Peter Unger's book

而在彼得·昂格尔的书中

he-One the first page,

他在第一页上

he has an address

印有一个地址

and it's an address for UNICEF,

这个地址是UNICEF的地址

which is the United Nations Children's Fund, UNICEF是联合国儿童基金

and he starts his book with that address

他的书以这个地址开始

where you could send the money right now. 读者可以直接把钱寄到这个地址

I thought it was very impressive that

我觉得这种做法令人印象深刻

he put that on page one of the book

他把地址放在书的第一页

because it puts the reader in a dilemma.

这是读者陷入了一种道德上的两难困境He points out that estimated that

他指出据估计

for every $3 you send to UNICEF,

你给联合国儿童基金会每寄去3美元

you can save a life.

就能救助一个人的性命

That's because there are people in this world

因为在世界上有些人

who are not getting medical care.

无法接受到医疗救助

There are people who are dying of disease

有些人因疾病而死

for which there are known cures

而这些疾病是可以被治愈的

because they don't have the best medicine.

但是他们没有最好的药物

which are often not even expensive

这些药甚至并非很昂贵

but they're living in such poverty

但是他们是在生活太穷困了

So he say,

所以他在书中写道

why don't you stop right now

为什么你不立刻放下手中的书

and send $100 to UNICEF

给联合国基金会寄去100美元呢

It was very impactful to start a book that way 这是一个有力的开场白

because I doubt that hardly any readers actually 因为我认为几乎不会有读者真的

write out a check on the spot to UNICEF;

写张支票寄给联合国儿童基金会

but if you don't,then you are in some sense

如果你无动于衷你会在某种意义上responsible for the loss 30 lives.

要为那逝去的30个生命负责

It's quite atriking and it helps you to reflect

这是很震撼的促使你反思

on what make us behave the way we do.

是什么使我们冷漠地无动于衷

By the way,when you go back

顺便当你使用电脑

to your computer,Google UNICEF,

用谷歌搜索联合国儿童基金会

and you can give $100

你只需花一个小时

to UNICEF within the hour

就能向联合国儿童基金会捐赠100美元Maybe I could ask for a show of hands

也许我们可以让你们举手示意

of how many people did that.

有多少人这样做过

I expect that not many of you will and

我估计你们没有人会这么做

I don't think that proves that you are bad people--

但是我并不认为这说明你们是坏人

this is a very interesting philosophical question--

这是一个非常有趣的哲学为题

but what it mean is that

但是

there is a moral dilemma

对于经济

underlying all of our ceconomic lives

我们会在道德上左右为难

I think this moral dilemma is

而对于金融来说

the same as the moral dilemma in finance.

这种两难的困境也是相同的

It's just that people in finance

只是从事金融行业的人们

are sometimes very successful

有的时候非常成功

and they could give a lot of more than $100 to UNICEF 他们可以给联合国儿童基金更多的钱

One thing that I wanted to emphasize

在这堂课上我还要强调一点

in this course,or try to emphasize,

或者是试图强调

is that part of finance

金融中的一部分

is actually philanthropy

慈善事业

The most important--The most successful people

最重要的在金融领域最唱功的人士

in finance,I believe,end up giving the money away

我认为最终会把钱捐出去

and that means--you can't consume a billion dollars.

这就意味着你不可能花十亿美元

There's no way you can do that.

你不可能这样做

You can only drive one car at a time

你只能一次开一辆车

and if you have five cars--

而且如果你有五辆车

well I mean that's kind of--

我的意思是那种

all right you could have five cars

好吧你能有五辆车

and you could drive a different one everyday,

而且你可以每天开不同的车

but it's starting to seem a little ridiculous,right?

但是这有点荒谬

At any rate,you're not using them

无论如何你不可能都用到他们

and they're going to end up being used by somebody else. 他们最终会被送给别人

So I think the outcome

所以我认为有钱人

should be philanthropy

就应该做慈善事业

and those of you who are successful

而你们中那些成功人士

really ought to give it away.

真的应该将财富捐出去

I'm bring in outside speakers

我会要请客做嘉宾

as part of this course and,

在课上讲座

I'm going to,among them,bring in people

而这些可做嘉宾中

who I think have been philanthropists.

会有一些慈善家

That's the mode of thinking that is most attractive

当你想到金融市场的时候

when you think about financial markets.

慈善是很有兴趣的

So let me tell you about--

我来介绍一下

I have slots now for four outside speakers.

我将安排四位客座嘉宾

I've lined up two of them

我已经安排好了其中两位

and let me tell you about the two

让我为你们介绍一下

that I've already lined up

这两位我已经联系好了的嘉宾

The first one is our David Swensen.

第一位是大卫·斯文森

42分钟

David Swensen came to Yale University in 1985

大卫·斯文森在1985年来到耶鲁大学

from Well Street,

来自华尔街

although he was a Yale graduate.

他是耶鲁的研究生

At that time the Yale endowment was

在那时耶鲁的基金

acutually slightly one billion dollars.

实际上略小于十亿

What is the endowment of Yale?

耶鲁基金是什么

The endowment is defined as the financial assets

that Yale University owns.

金融资产

Yale also has an art collection,

耶鲁还有一些艺术藏品

which is worth many billions,

价值好几亿美元

but we don't count that as part of the endowment

但我们并不把它作为金融的一部分

because they will never sell it

因为学校不会卖掉他们

so it doesn't provide income for us.

所以他不会为学校提供任何收入

Yale also has a physical plant.

耶鲁还有一些事务产业

like this beautiful building that we're in,

例如我们所处的这栋漂亮的建筑

but that's not part of the endowment either.

但是他们也不是基金的一部分

The financial assets that Yale had,at that time,

在那时耶鲁拥有的金融资产

were about one billion dollars.

大概有十亿美元

Since then,Daivd Swensen has invested or

从那时起大卫·斯文森投资

has managed the investment of this endowment

或者说开始管理这笔基金

and it has done phenomenally well.

而且成效相当的明显

Yale now has over twenty-two billion dollars in its endowment.

耶鲁现在拥有超过220亿美金的基金

The return he got from 1996 to 2006

从1996到2006

was 17% a year on investments.

他的个人投资收益率为一年17%

Last year the return on the Yale portfolio

去年耶鲁大学投资组合的收益率

was 28% in one year

是28%

Now I don't know how impressed you are,

我不知道你们是否被震撼到了

the year before that it was 22% in one year.

前年的收益率是22%

Now some of this might be luck

这里面也许有运气的成分

but I don't think it's all luck

但我并不认为这都归因于好运

because he's done this consistently for so many years. 因为他一直从事着这项事业

If you look up around this campus now,

如果你在校园里观察的话

you'll see a lot of construction,

你会看到很多建筑

a lot of things are being spruced and improved.

其中很多都被修正并改进过了

I think David Swensen has a big hand in doing that 我认为大卫斯文森在投资上很有一手

because we have the money that makes it possible.

因为有了钱这一切成为了可能

The endowment at Yale is something like

耶鲁基金总额目前折合下来是

two million dollars per student now

每个学生两百万美元

that's just sitting here as money that could be spent. 这笔钱就放在那里随时可以拆现花掉

How did he do this

他是怎么做到的呢

That's one of the amazing things.

这就是神奇的地方

It seems to have something to do,I think,

我认为也许

with academic understanding.

这与学术理解有关

That being part of university community

即对于一个在校学生来说

is a good thing for investing

经营投资是很有好处的

and you can see some evidence in that.

而且你们可以看到关于这的证据

Harvard University Princeton University,

哈佛大学普林斯顿大学

and other university have done

和其他的大学

extremely well on their endowments

各自的基金上都经营的很好

however,not quite as well as Yale.

但是都比不上耶鲁大学

Yale I think,is the number one performer

我认为耶鲁的经营收益是排第一名的

so it's very interesting that we're able

所以很有意思的是我们能够

it's very significant that

很有意义的是

We're able to get David Swensen.

我们能够请到大卫斯文森

He doesn't do a lot of public speaking

他很少做公共演讲

but he is willing,for young people like you

但他很愿意为你们这样的年轻学生们

to do this

做这次演讲

so that's one of our outside speakers

这是客座嘉宾之一

He also has two books about investing

他也写过两本投资方面的著作

that we'll talk about.

我们会谈到的

The second person I have set up now to come

我邀请的第二位客座嘉宾

although the date on the syllabus online

也许网上教学大纲的日期

is going to be changed--is Andrew Redleaf

会有所的变动是安德鲁·雷德利夫

who is also a Yale graduate

他也是一个耶鲁的毕业生

and who set up a hedge fund called Whitebox Advisors 他创设了Whitebox Advisors对冲基金

It has done phenomenally well in investing

此基金在投资领域有着卓越的表现

I think--I have on the syllabus

我在大纲中放了一篇

a New York Times artical about him.

《纽约时报》上关于他的文章

He's a very original and creative thinker

他的想法独到而又有创见

who looks at things from a unique perspective

从独到的视角审视一切

and I find it very interesting talking with him

我觉得跟他聊天是很有意思的事情

To do well in investing you have to

如果你想要在投资中表现出色

have your independent view of things

而你必须有独立的观点

and really be thinking how about things work

了解事物的运行规律

and he is someone who does that.

而且他正是这样一个人

Incidentally,the New York Times had

顺便提一下《纽约时报》中

another article about Redleaf,

另一篇关于雷德利夫的报告

saying that he was really one of the first persons

说他是第一位

to clearly delineate the subprime crisis that we're now in. 真正清晰地描述了目前的次贷危机

He saw it coming and,

他遇见了这一场危机

I have to say,profited from it

而且不得不佩服他还从中获利

If you know the subprime crisis is coming,

如果你能语言次贷危机

then there's always a way to profit from that

那总有从中获利的方法

and that's what he did

而他就是这样做的

But he also has a philanthropic side

同时也热心于慈善

so it all comes out very well.

总的来说他的一切都是近乎昭然

I think in the remaining time

剩下的时间里

I will just go through an outline of the

我大体讲一下

an outline of the course

这门课程的框架

and that means go through the topics

大概讲一下每节课

of the various lectures and then

所涉及的主体

I'll let you go for today

然后我们就下课

So the way this course is divided up

这门课程的划分

is different then the Financial Theory course.

与另一科目“金融理论”不一样

If you look at John Geanakoplos's course

如果你们听约翰·吉纳科普洛斯的

on Financial Theory

金融理论课

his mathematical concepts are central

他的大纲中心部分

to his outline of the course

是金融学中的数学概念

but this being a Financial Markets course,

而我们这是金融市场课

I'm dividing it up more

于是我从金融市场和

in terms of markets and instiutions.

金融机构的角度来划分这一课

I still want to start with some theory

课程开始的时候我会涉及一些理论

and I thought that--well I will--I plan to start by talking about 我认为这些理论

the most basic concepts

是风险管理的最基本的概念

of risk management,which underlie finance.

也是金融学中最基础的概念

That will be Wednesday's lecture

这就是星期三那堂课的主要内容

I call it the uniersal principle of

我称之为风险管理的普遍原则

risk management pooling and the hedging of risk

风险汇聚和风险对冲

I think it's the most important

我认为

theoretical concept that underlies

这是构成金融学和保险学

finance and insurance,

最为重要的理论核心概念

which we'll also talk about

而这些我们在以后的课程中

a little bit in this course

还会再提到

The idea is that if you spread

这种观念就是说如果你把风险分散

they don't disappear,they're still there

风险仍然存在并没有消失

but they're spread out over many people

但如果风险分散到许多人身上

and the impact on any one person is reduced

那每一个人受到的风险冲击就会减少

So a basic principle of insurance is that

保险学的基本概念就是

if each person or each family suffers the risk, 如果单个人或家庭遭遇风险

for example,that a person,father or mother,

举个例子某个人的父亲或者母亲

might die then it is a terrible blow to the family 不幸去世而是这个家庭遭受沉重的打击but it's not a blow to society as a whole

但这并不会给社会整体带来太大的影响because people die and it has

因为人的死亡

a certain statistical regularity.

有某种统计学的规律性

It makes sense that we pay families

我们给失去亲人的家庭

who has lost a father or a mother

付钱是有一些道理的

so that they can keep going

这样他们可以继续生活

It benefits everyone to have

保险就使得每一个

a situation in place for that.

处境艰难的人获益

I wanted to talk about that with

讲到这些内容的时候

a little bit of reference to probability theory

会涉及一些概率的知识

and so that's what I will be covering.

这就是下一讲的内容

The next lecture will be

下一讲中

among the more mathematical,

会有较多的数学内容

although it's very elementary.

都是基础的知识

If you had a course in probability and statics, 如果你们都学过统计学或者概率论

then you'll find it easy to follow,

你会比较容易理解

but it selt-contained again.

也需要你们独立学习

I feel I have to introduce concepts like

我会讲到像方差协方差

variance and co-variance and correlation

相关系数这样的概念

in order to talk about finance;

为金融学的内容做一些铺垫

so that's what we'll do in Lecture Two.

我们会在第二课讲到

Then text lecture--I want to come back

再后面的一讲就是第三讲

to some basic themes that--the third lecture-- 将会回到基础的主题中

about technology and it relates to

会讲到金融技术这涉及到

another book that I wrote.

另外一本鄙人的拙著

I'm not assigning it,but

这不是指定书目

I wrote a book called New Financial Order

我在2003年写了这本书

in 2003

《金融新秩序》

about technology and finance.

主要探讨金融技术和金融学

A theme of that book was that-

这本书的其中一个主题是

I've already said this to you

尽管已经提过

but it's a very important point--

但这非常重要我想强调一下

fiancial technology is evolving and improving

就是金融技术的演进过程

just the way engineering technology or

与工程技术和生物技术

biochemical technology is improving.

的演进过程并无二致

It's getting better year by year

年复一年金融技术越来越出色

and the course of finance

而在你们的有生之年

over your lifetime

金融学的课题

will be dramatic

都将引人注目

so the financial institutions

正因为此

taht we have ten years from now

和今天的金融机构相比

will look very different from

十年后的金融机构

the ones we have now.

会有着巨大的差距

We have to understanding--in understanding

我们需要了解

the progress of financial technology

理解金融技术演进的过程中

is its fundamental relation to information technology 与信息技术之间的基本关系

Computers,the Internet,and communication devices 计算机网络通讯设备

are fundamental to financial progress

是金融进步的基础

and they make things possible

正是这些技术使得过去不可能的事情

that wouldn't been possible before.

如今变成了现实

Oftentimes,inventions that seem,

通常理论上

in the abstract,to be good ideas

创新固然不错

may be impossible because something

但却很难实现

that you have to do to make it actually

因为把创意变成向现实

come into practice is too expensive and

花费会相当的昂贵

so it's not economic to produce the invention

实现这样的创意非常不划算

But then developments in other fields

而其他领域的发展

can change the relative prices

改变了相对价格

and suddenly make an idea

过去那看似空想

that had been hypothetical and unapplied

而且不切实际的注意

suddenly work well.

就突然之间变得可行了

So financial inventions also involve experimentation. 金融创新也会涉及实验

Like in any other invention,

正如其他的创新一样

nobody knows that will work and

没有人知道哪些是可行的

abstract theory doesn't guide you completely.

有时候理论完全无法指导实践

Once an invention is seen to work

而当一种创新品运行顺畅的时候

it is rapidly copied around the world

就会在世界范围内被模仿

We can see various breaks in financial history

金融史上当新的想法突然间变得可行

when some new idea was suddenly proven workable. 我们就能看到许多的创新突破

Traditionally,finacial inventions were

传统的金融产品

not granted patent rights,

是没有专利的

but now in the United States and

但现在在美国

in a number of other countries

和其他的一些国家中

it has become possible to patent financial inventions 金融产品也拥有了专利

I know I've done that in my life and

我就做了这样的事情

so I think it

我认为

gives a different perspective on finance.

这也给我们提供了审视金融的另一个角度Then I want to talk about insurance.

然后我们谈谈保险业

The institution of insurance is something

保险机构的出现

that really came in--it's one of the earliest--

我认为这是金融业中

I consider it a division of finance--

最早的分支之一

really came in the 1600s when

大约在17世纪

probability theory was invested.

概率论刚刚诞生

The mathematical theory of probability

在那之前概率的数学理论

was unknown until that time

是不存在的

and you can see that insurance suddenly

而随着概率论的出现

made an appearance at that time.

保险业也突然出现了

This will be an historical as well as

这对于保险业来说不仅具有历史意义

a theoretical discussion of insurance.

同样具有理论意义

Then I will move to portfolio diversification

之后我们会讲讲投资组合的多元化

and supporting financial institutions.

和辅助的金融机构

this is again a more theoretical lecture.

同样这节课设计更多的理论

It will be about the capital asset pricing model 会讲到资本资产的定价模型

It will be about the securities market line

证券市场的风险线

about the beta,about the mutual fund theorem, beta系数共同基金定律

and it will also be about institutions

还有当下的一些金融机构

that we have--about investment companies

包括投资公司

and their management.

以及他们的管理

So it's really parallel to an insurance discussion

讨论的主线与保险业实现对应的

Isurance pools risk like

保险业分散风险是通过

life risks or fire risks

与个人签订保险合同

by writing policies to individual policyholoders

比如寿险合同或者火险合同

Portfolio management pools risks in a different way

而投资组合管理采用不同的方式

by assembling a diversified portfolio

多元化的资产配置

or a portfolio that's negatively correlated

或者风险负相关性的

with a risk that someone has.

投资组合

Then I want to go to the efficient markets theory

这之后我们会讲到有效市场假设

"Efficient markets"is a theory about

有效市场是

well it came in about three decades ago,

大约三十年前甚至四十年前

maybe it's closer to four decades ago

有人提出了这一假说

it's a theory that financial markets work very well

他认为金融市场运行良好

The efficient markets markets hypothesis was encouraged 有效市场的假说倡导

actually the idea goes back over 100 years

实际上这要回溯到一百年以前

it's encouraged by the observation that

观察发现

financial markets seem to respond

金融市场对于新信息的回馈

with great speed to new information and

非常迅速

when new information appears,

而且当新信息出现

prices will suddenly adjust

金融市场中的价格

in the financial markets.

会迅速调整

Certain kinds of financial markets

人们称这种金融市场为

called"Prediction markets"

浅谈互联网金融对商业银行传统业务的影响

浅谈互联网金融对商业银行传统业务的影响 摘要:随着货币数字化、大数据、信用理念的发展以及互联网对金融业的渗透,“互联网金融”成为一个新的研究和讨论热点。互联网金融发展势头强劲,网络银行、第三方支付、金融理财产品网络销售、网络保险销售,以及网络小额信贷等多种形式应运而生,本文试图通过分析互联网金融的主要特征及其现状,以余额宝为例,探讨互联网金融对商业银行传统业务的影响,并提出商业银行应对互联网金融挑战的策略。 关键词:互联网金融;余额宝;第三方支付;商业银行 互联网金融是指以依托于社交网络、支付、云计算以及搜索引擎等互联网工具,实现资金融通、信息中介和支付等业务的一种新兴金融。互联网金融在我国的发展主要表现在三个方面:首先是移动支付逐渐替代传统支付业务(银行汇款、信用卡等);其次是大电子商务企业涉足金融,阿里巴巴金融冲击传统信贷模式;最后是P2P网络贷款平台井喷式的发展。 一、互联网金融的特征 1.低成本、高效的信息处理能力。在互联网金融模式下,资金供求方运行完全依赖于互联网和移动通信网络进行联系和沟通,并可以实现多方同时交易,客户信用等级的评价以及风险管理也主要通过数据分析来完成,交易双方在信息收集成本、借贷双方信用等级评价成本、双边签约成本以及贷后风险管理成本等极小。 2.交易信息相对对称。互联网金融通过社交网络生成和传播信息,任何企业和个人的信息都会与其他主体发生联系。交易双方通过互联网搜集信息,能够较全面了解一个企业或个人的财力和信用情况,降低信息不对称。 3.操作更加便捷。通过第三方支付平台,用户在将银行卡与第三方支付账号绑定并设定后,仅凭账号和密码就可完成所有支付交易,客户不需要到营业网点去,只需要有一部智能手机终端或电脑设备,就可以随时随地完成资金的划转和信贷,这极大方便了客户。 4.大众化。传统金融服务有明显的金融排斥性特征,即金融服务大都只针对那些中高端收入群体或大型企业,众多低收入群体或者是小型企业大都享受不到

金融市场与机构课后习题答案.doc

Chapter 1 Role of Financial Markets and Institutions Questions 1. Explain the meaning of surplus units and deficit units. Provide an example of each. ANSWER: Surplus units provide funds to the financial markets while deficit units obtain funds from the financial markets. Surplus units include households with savings, while deficit units include firms or government agencies that borrow funds. 2. Distinguish between primary and secondary markets. ANSWER: Primary markets are used for the issuance of new securities while secondary markets are used for the trading of existing securities. 3. Distinguish between money and capital markets. ANSWER: Money markets facilitate the trading of short-term (money market) instruments while capital markets facilitate the trading of long-term (capital market) instruments. 4. Distinguish between perfect and imperfect security markets. ANSWER: With perfect financial markets, all information about any securities for sale would be freely available to investors, information about surplus and deficit units would be freely available, and all securities could be unbundled into any size desired. In reality, markets are imperfect, so that surplus and deficit units do not have free access to information, and securities can not be unbundled as desired. 5. Explain why the existence of imperfect markets creates a need for financial institutions. ANSWER: Financial intermediaries are needed to facilitate the exchange of funds between surplus and deficit units. They have the information to provide this service and can even repackage deposits to provide the amount of funds borrowers desire. 6. Explain the meaning of efficient markets. Why might we expect markets to be efficient most of the time? ANSWER: If markets are efficient then prices of securities available in these markets properly reflect all information. We should expect markets to be efficient because if they weren't, investors would capitalize on the discrepancy between what prices are and what they should be. This action would force market prices to represent the appropriate prices as perceived by the market. 7. In recent years, several securities firms have been guilty of using inside information when purchasing securities, thereby achieving returns well above the norm (even when accounting for risk). Does this suggest that the security markets are not efficient? Explain. ANSWER: Efficiency is often defined with regard to publicly available information. In this case, markets can be efficient, but investors with inside information could possibly outperform the market on a consistent basis. A stronger version of efficiency would hypothesize that even access to inside information will not consistently outperform the market. 1

金融市场与机构 (6)

Chapter 6 Are Financial Markets Efficient? Multiple Choice Questions 1. How expectations are formed is important because expectations influence (a) the demand for assets. (b) bond prices. (c) the risk structure of interest rates. (d) the term structure of interest rates. (e) all of the above. Answer: E 2. According to the efficient market hypothesis, the current price of a financial security (a) is the discounted net present value of future interest payments. (b) is determined by the highest successful bidder. (c) fully reflects all available relevant information. (d) is a result of none of the above. Answer: C 3. The efficient market hypothesis (a) is based on the assumption that prices of securities fully reflect all available information. (b) holds that the expected return on a security equals the equilibrium return. (c) both (a) and (b). (d) neither (a) nor (b). Answer: C 4. If the optimal forecast of the return on a security exceeds the equilibrium return, then (a) the market is inefficient. (b) an unexploited profit opportunity exists. (c) the market is in equilibrium. (d) only (a) and (b) of the above are true. (e) only (b) and (c) of the above are true. Answer: D

互联网金融对商业银行的机遇与挑战

龙源期刊网 https://www.doczj.com/doc/d21472888.html, 互联网金融对商业银行的机遇与挑战 作者:于鑫 来源:《商情》2014年第27期 互联网金融作为互联网时代金融的新形态,已经来势汹汹,2012年“三马”在上海成立合资保险公司,京东和苏宁分别进军互联网金融,阿里巴巴“余额宝”,新浪“微银行”,腾讯“微支付”等互联网金融产品的推出,让传统金融业感受到了互联网金融的巨大压力。主要以余额宝为例介绍了现代网络金融产品的创新特点和对商业银行的影响以及启示。 互联网网金融余额宝第三方机构一站式服务; 一、互联网金融产品的创新性 (一)在金融产品模式方面的创新 2013年6月,余额宝作为第一支互联网基金面世,推出不久就受到违规争议。支付宝公 司为规避监管风险,在余额宝的设计上把基金销售行为定义为直销,并严格按照直销来设计业务流程,支付宝收取提供交易平台的管理费,这样就成功地规避了监管风险。证监会对余额宝在第三方支付业务与货币基金产品的组合创新给予肯定和支持。余额宝的另一大产品创新亮点在于将即时支付(T+0)融入客户消费场景,为客户提供账户增值的同时,丝毫不影响客户所有的支付体验,支付宝客户可以使用余额宝资产在淘宝网站进行实时支付或转账到他人的支付宝。 (二)在营销途径方面的创新 余额宝在营销渠道上开创基金公司在大电商平台直销基金的模式。目前,天弘基金是余额宝服务的唯一产品提供者,增利宝也是唯一与余额宝进行对接的产品。增利宝利用支付宝的渠道优势,在零推广成本下,将产品直接显现在近八亿的客户群体面前,独享规模近200亿的市场。公司正是利用互联网的营销渠道优势创造了奇迹;余额宝在营销流程开创互联网一站式销售模式。 (三)在技术应用方面的创新 支付宝客户的备付金具有小额性和流动不定性的特点,特别是在“节日促销”期间有流动性爆发的特点。基金公司要吸收支付宝的备付金,难点在如何化解备付金流动性爆发而带来的风险。货币型基金虽然相当安全,但突发性大规模赎回容易导致基金的流动性不足,而迫使基金出售未到期的资产而发生亏损。随着信息科学技术的发展,天弘基金公司委托金证公司,利用大数据技术,锁定支付宝客户,把握客户购物支付的规律,对“大促”和节前消费等影响备付金流动的因素进行事先预测,有效的解决了备付金的流动性风险,保证增利宝产品的低风险。

【证券】金融市场基础知识知识点总结

第一章金融市场体系 第一节全球金融体系 考点一金融市场的概念 金融市场是指以金融资产为交易对象,已金融资产的供给方和需求方为交易主体形成的交易机制及其关系的总和。广而言之,金融市场是实现货币借贷和资金融通、办理各种票据和有价证券交易活动的市场。比较完善的金融市场定义是:金融市场是交易金融资产并确定金融资产价格的一种机制。 考点二金融市场的分类 考点三影响金融市场的主要因素 一般来说,影响金融市场发展的因素是多方面的,但最为重要的则是以下五个方面:(1)经济因素 (2)法律因素 (3)市场因素 (4)技术因素 (5)体制或管理因素 考点四金融市场的特点和功能

考点五非证券金融市场的概念和分类 非证券金融市场是指除了证券以外的其他金融工具发行和交易的场所。它包括: 1.股权投资市场。股权投资指通过投资取得被投资单位的股份,及企业(或者个人)购买的其他企业(准备上市、未上市公司)的股票或以货币、无形资产和其他事物资产直接投资于其他单位,最终目的是获得较大的经济利益,这种经济利益可以通过分得利润或股利获取,也可以通过其他方式取得。股权投资市场,即实现上述交易过程的市场。 2.信托市场。信托投资是金融信托投资机构用自有资金及组织的资金进行的投资。当信托成为一种商业行为后,特别是其特殊的制度优势成为金融业的重要组成部分后,信托这种服务方式的需求和供给的总和就形成了信托市场,也可以说信托服务业实现其价值的领域即为信托市场。 3.融资租赁市场。融资租赁又称设备租赁或现代租赁,是指实质上转移与资产所有权有关的全部或绝大部分风险和报酬的租赁。 考点六全球金融市场的形成及发展趋势

金融市场与机构 (9)

Chapter 9 The Money Markets Multiple Choice Questions 1. Activity in money markets increased significantly in the late 1970s and early 1980s because of (a) rising short-term interest rates. (b) regulations that limited what banks could pay for deposits. (c) both (a) and (b). (d) neither (a) nor (b). Answer: C 2. Money market securities have all the following characteristics except they are not (a) short term. (b) money. (c) low risk. (d) very liquid. Answer: B 3. Money market instruments (a) are usually sold in large denominations. (b) have low default risk. (c) mature in one year or less. (d) are characterized by all of the above. (e) are characterized by only (a) and (b) of the above. Answer: D 4. The banking industry (a) should have an efficiency advantage in gathering information that would eliminate the need for the money markets. (b) exists primarily to mediate the asymmetric information problem between saver-lenders and borrower-spenders. (c) is subject to more regulations and governmental costs than are the money markets. (d) all of the above are true. (e) only (a) and (b) of the above are true. Answer: D

金融市场和金融机构

第二章金融市场和金融机构 (一) 第二章金融市场和金融机构 ?1 金融体系的定义 ?2 资金流动 ?3 金融制度的功能 ?4 金融创新 ?5 金融市场 ?6 金融市场中的比率 第一部分 金融体系介绍 金融系统(金融体系) ?被用于订立金融合约和交换资产及风险的金融市场和金融机构(中介)的集合 ?金融机构担当投资者的代理人和帮助资本(金)的流动等 ?金融市场是所有金融交易的核心 ?居民户、企业和政府实施其金融决策离不开金融市场和金融机构。 第一节 金融市场 一、金融市场概述 (一)金融市场的概念和分类 1.金融市场: 金融市场是买卖金融工具以融通资金的场所或机制。 ?之所以把金融市场视作为一种场所,是因为只有这样才与市场的一般含义相吻合; ?之所以同时又把金融市场视作为一种机制,是因为金融市场上的融资活动既可以在固定场所进行,也可以不在固定场所进行,如果不在固定场所进行的融资活动就可以理解为一种融资机制。 ?按有无固定场所进行分,金融产品市场可分为两类: ?交易所交易市场(Exchange traded) ?场外市场(Over-the-counter ,OTC) 交易所交易市场 ?芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT) ?纽约证券交易所(NYSE) ?芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE) ?上海证券交易所 ?深圳证券交易所 ?上海黄金交易所 ?上海期货交易所(金属) ?大连商品交易所(农产品) ?郑州商品交易所(农产品) ?中国金融期货交易所(股指期货) ?……

?交易所的主要职责: ?定义交易合约 ?组织交易 ?使交易双方的利益同时得到保护 ?交易规则:由组织化的证券交易所制定,对交易程序进行标准化。 ?传统上,交易双方在交易所内相见并通过特定手语达成交易,而现在交易更多的是采用电子交易系统。 场外市场 ?由电话和计算机将金融机构和大型企业的交易员以及基金经理联系在一起的网络系统。银行等金融机构通常扮演做市商的角色。 ?场外交易的最大优点是合约内容不受交易所限制。 ?场外市场用于交易的电话通常都是被录音的。 ?场外市场与交易所交易市场的一个重要区别在于信用风险的大小。 ?场外市场交易额远远大于交易所交易市场。 ?最简单的交易,例如: ?买入100股IMB股票 ?卖出100万英镑 ?买入1000盎司黄金 ?卖出价值100万美元的通用汽车公司债券 ?第一个交易往往发生在交易所内,而其它三个交易更可能是场外交易,但四种均属现货交易。(二)分类 (三)金融市场的构成要素 1.金融市场主体:即金融市场的参与者 2.金融市场客体:金融市场的交易载体——货币资金。 3.金融市场交易工具:金融市场的交易对象指的是金融工具,也称信用工具,它是证明金融交易金额、期限、价格的书面文件,它对交易双方的权利和义务具有法律约束意义。 4.金融市场价格:在金融市场上,交易对象的价格就是用货币资金表示的价格。 二、货币市场和资本市场 ?按到期期限划分 ?货币市场,期限短于一年,强调流动性 ?短期债务市场:比如美国的短期国库券,企业的商业票据等。 ?资本市场,期限长于一年,强调收益性 ?包括长期债务市场和权益性证券市场。 金融资产 三种基本的金融资产类型:债务、股权和衍生工具 ?债券(固定收益证券,Fixed Income Securities):承诺未来支付固定数量现金的借款合约。 ?公司债券、政府债券、住宅性和商业性按揭贷款、消费贷款。 股票(普通股):公司发行的所有权凭证。 ?每份股票代表对企业所有权的等同份额; ?通常还代表对公司治理事务的投票权; ?股票代表对一家公司资产和收益的剩余索取权(Residual Claim); ?普通股同时具备有限责任的特征,即如果资不抵债,债权人无法向股票所有者索取更多 资金来弥补缺口,债权人的索取权被限定在该企业资产的范围之内。

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fabozzi_金融市场与金融机构基础课后答案.doc

CHAPTER 4 THE U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE AND THE CREATION OF MONEY CENTRAL BANKS AND THEIR PURPOSE The primary role of a central bank is to maintain the stability of the currency and money supply for a country or a group of countries. The role of central banks can be categorized as: (1) risk assessment, (2) risk reduction, (3) oversight of payment systems, (4) crisis management. One of the major ways a central bank accomplishes its goals is through monetary policy. For this reason, central banks are sometimes called monetary authority. In implementing monetary policy, central banks, acting as a reserve bank, require private banks to maintain and deposit the required reserves with the central bank. In times of financial crisis, central banks perform the role of lender of last resort for the banking system. Countries throughout the world may have central banks. Additionally, the European Central Bank is responsible for implementing monetary policy for the member countries of the European Union. There is widespread agreement that central banks should be independent of the government so that decisions of the central bank will not be influenced for short-term political purposes such as pursuing a monetary policy to expand the economy but at the expense of inflation. In implementing monetary and economic policies, the United States is a member of an informal network of nations. This group started in 1976 as the Group of 6, or G6: US, France, Germany, UK, Italy, and Japan. Thereafter, Canada joined to for the G7. In 1998, Russia joined to form the G8. THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE UNITED STATES: THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM The Federal Reserve System consists of 12 banking districts covering the entire country. Created in 1913, the Federal Reserve is the government agency responsible for the management of the US monetary and banking systems. It is independent of the political branches of government. The Fed is managed by a seven-member Board of Governors, who are appointed by the President and approved by Congress. The Fed's tools for monetary management have been made more difficult by financial innovations. The public's increasing acceptance of money market mutual funds has funneled a large amount of money into what are essentially interest-bearing checking accounts. Securitization permits commercial banks to change what once were illiquid consumer loans of several varieties into securities. Selling these securities gives the banks a source of funding that is outside the Fed's influence.

金融市场与机构

Chapter 10 The Bond Market Multiple Choice Questions 1. Compared to money market securities, capital market securities have (a) more liquidity. (b) longer maturities. (c) lower yields. (d) less risk. Answer: B 2. (I) Securities that have an original maturity greater than one year are traded in capital markets. (II) The best known capital market securities are stocks and bonds. (a) (I) is true, (II) false. (b) (I) is false, (II) true. (c) Both are true. (d) Both are false. Answer: C 3. (I) Securities that have an original maturity greater than one year are traded in money markets. (II) The best known money market securities are stocks and bonds. (a) (I) is true, (II) false. (b) (I) is false, (II) true. (c) Both are true. (d) Both are false. Answer: D 4. (I) Firms and individuals use the capital markets for long-term investments. (II) The capital markets provide an alternative to investment in assets such as real estate and gold. (a) (I) is true, (II) false. (b) (I) is false, (II) true. (c) Both are true.

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离岸金融市场研究的文献评述 摘要:随着金融自由化和金融制度创新的进一步发展,离岸金融市场在国际金融体系中占据越来越重要的地位。本文先从国外离岸金融研究的发展入手,从对离岸金融市场的定义到实践中对离岸金融市场建立的建议,阐述了国外学者的研究历程。进而转向国内学者对离岸金融市场的认识过程,并在文末指出了国内外相关研究中目前存在的问题。 关键词:离岸金融市场;研究;评述 离岸金融市场是金融自由化和金融制度创新的产物,从上世纪中期至今,迅速发展成为现代国际金融体系的重要组成部分,建立离岸金融市场的浪潮更是方兴未艾。尤其是亚洲,更是掀起了一股离岸金融的浪潮,新加坡、日本、香港等亚洲国家和地区相继建立其区域性离岸金融中心,为其带来了巨大的收益和便利,甚至带动该国(地区)经济的发展与飞跃。因此,发展我国离岸金融市场成为金融体系改革的重要环节。 一、国外离岸金融研究情况综述 离岸金融理论研究伴随着离岸金融市场的产生而产生,关于离岸金融市场的定义,在国外有不同的见解。Grabbe (1997)从离岸金融市场运行方式上界定指出:“离岸金融市场代表着一种针对管理规则的套利行为,离岸银行是一个金融管理组合体:它所经营的货币在货币发行国之外运动着,因此它所经营的货币是一个国家的(一种法律环境),而它所适用的银行条例和竞争效率却是另一个国家的。”“为促进国际银行业务而专门设定的小型区域”、“可以财政中性的方式进行国际金融业务的地

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