第15卷 第5期
2017年10月南水北调与水利科技S outh 2to 2North W ater Transfers and Water Science &Techn ology V ol.15N o.5O ct.2017水文水资源
收稿日期:2016212212 修回日期:2017203215 网络出版时间:2017208229
网络出版地址:http://k https://www.doczj.com/doc/9515289282.html, https://www.doczj.com/doc/9515289282.html,/k cms/detail/13.1334.T V.20170829.1915.001.html
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(51279183;51509222);郑州大学重大科技项目培育基金(2015ZDPY01)
Funds:Nation al Natu ral Science Foundation of Chin a(51279183;51509222);M ajor S cien ce and T echnology Project of Zhengzhou Un iversity
(2015ZDPY01)
作者简介:王豪杰(19942),男,河南商丘人,主要从事水文学及水资源研究。E 2mail:1143743304@https://www.doczj.com/doc/9515289282.html,
通讯作者:左其亭(19672),男,河南固始人,教授,博士,博导,长期从事水文学及水资源研究。E 2m ail:z uoqt@z https://www.doczj.com/doc/9515289282.html,
DOI:10.13476/https://www.doczj.com/doc/9515289282.html,ki.nsbdqk.2017.05.006
王豪杰,左其亭,罗增良.沙颍河代表站径流演变特征及归因分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(5):
36242.W A N G Hao 2jie,ZU O Q i 2t ing ,L U O Z eng 2L iang.R unoff evo lutio n characterist ics of a ty pical stat ion in
Shaying he River basin and attr ibut ion analysis [J].South 2to 2N or th Water T ransfers and Wat er Science &
T echno lo gy ,2017,15(5):36242.(in Chinese)
沙颍河代表站径流演变特征及归因分析
王豪杰1,左其亭1,2,罗增良1
(1.郑州大学水利与环境学院,郑州450001;2.郑州大学水科学研究中心,郑州450001)
摘要:径流演变特征研究可为在变化环境下制定流域水资源规划、建立流域水文响应机制提供科学依据。以沙颍河流域代表水文站阜阳站为例,运用M 2K 检验法和小波分析法分析了1956年-2011年径流变化特征,并从气候变化及人类活动的角度分析了径流变化的主要驱动因素。结果表明:沙颍河阜阳站径流总体呈下降趋势,但下降趋势不明显,总体未达到95%显著性水平;在1966年前后存在明显的突变点;径流存在13a 、26a 两类周期变化特性,周期演变过程受人类活动影响显著。就驱动因素而言,人类活动对径流变化的贡献率在65%以上,气候变化对径流变化的影响较弱,表现为从负向到正向的趋势。
关键词:径流演变;气候变化;人类活动;蒸发率函数;阜阳站
中图分类号:P333 文献标识码:A 文章编号:167221683(2017)0520036207
Runoff evolution characteristics of a typical station in Shayinghe River basin and attribution analysis
WA N G H ao 2jie 1,ZU O Qi 2ting 1,2,L U O Zeng 2L iang 1
(1.School of W ater Conser vancy &Envir onment,Zheng z hou Univers ity ,Zheng z hou 450001,China;
2.Center f or Water S cience Resear ch ,Zhengz hou Univer sity ,Zhengz hou 450001,China)
Abstract:T he study on the character istics o f runo ff ev olut ion can prov ide a scient ific basis fo r the development o f water re 2sour ces plans and establishment o f hydrolog ical r esponse mechanisms.In t his study ,the runoff evo lution cha racteristics of F uy 2ang stat ion wer e analyzed using M 2K test and wav elet analy sis based on the discharg e data o f Fuyang hydro metric station from 1956to 2011,and the main facto rs influencing the r unoff chang es w ere analy zed from the per spectiv e o f climate chang e and hu 2man activ ities.T he r esults show ed that t he r unoff o f F uyang statio n of Shaying he R iver decreased but the decr easing trend w as no t significant,no t reaching the 95%sig nificance level.A n abrupt chang e occur red ar ound 1966.T here was a 132year perio dic variatio n and a 262y ear perio dic v ariation of t he r unoff,and the per io dic evo lutio n pr ocess w as affected by human activ ities sig 2nificantly.As fo r the driv ing fact ors,the contributio n rat e of human activit ies to runoff changes was mo re than 65%.T he impact of climate change o n r unoff changes was r elativ ely weak,and tended to turn fro m neg ative to po sitiv e.
Key words:runo ff evolut ion;climate chang e;human activ ities;ev apo ration rate funct ion;F uy ang statio n
近几十年来随着工业社会的迅速发展和人类活
动的快速扩张,自然环境受人类活动的影响日益加深,全球气候也随之发生剧烈变化[1]。全球性的气候变化和人类对水资源利用程度的逐渐加深,对水#36#
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