KDB Daewoo Securities upgraded to AA+ (highest credit rating given to a
domestic securities firm) By KR, KIS, and NICE on Nov. 2011 2012 Outlook Report December 19, 2011
Industry Report
Display
(Overweight)
Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd.
Jonathan Hwang +822-768-4140 j.hwang@https://www.doczj.com/doc/9213300272.html,
Brian Oh +822-768-4136 brian.oh@https://www.doczj.com/doc/9213300272.html,
OLED TVs for 1H; Apple iTV for 2H
In 2011, the LCD and display-related industries were hit the hardest by the global economic slump. The supply glut intensified, as, after aggressive capacity expansion, TV demand contracted in the wake of the slowdowns of advanced economies. This down cycle became prolonged and deeper as Chinese panel makers significantly cut panel prices on the back of large-scale government subsidies. However, with crises come opportunities. Given that display supply-demand conditions are rapidly changing, companies that are quickly responding to these changes should find opportunities.
There are no LCD capacity expansion plans for 2012. New supply should mostly stem from Chinese 8G lines, which commenced operations in 4Q11. On the other hand, top-tier firms are utilizing their excess capacity to produce next-generation products, including small- and medium-sized LTPS, oxide-TFT, and OLED.
On the demand side, while PC and TV markets are anticipated to stay stagnant, LCD demand is expected to be driven by mobile devices (e.g., smartphones, tablet PCs, and Ultrabooks). TV demand should pick up in 1H thanks to the UEFA Euro 2012 and the London Olympics, but may slow in 2H. Going forward, the TV market is likely to be divided into: 1) low-end TVs and 2) innovative products like OLED TVs and the Apple iTV. OLED TVs and the Apple iTV are unlikely to significantly impact TV demand in 2012; however, they should lead the TV market over the medium- to long-term. Of particular note, we expect that the Apple iTV will bring a new platform to the smart TV segment. We maintain our Overweight rating on the display industry. Our top picks are LG Display (LGD; 034220 KS/Buy) in light of its specialty product sales expansion; SFA Engineering (056190 KQ/Buy) and Avaco (083930 KQ/Buy) in light of the expected benefits of the growing OLED and oxide-TFT investments; and Silicon Works (108320 KQ/Buy) in light of its focus on sales to Apple.
Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S.
I. Investment summary (3)
1. 2011 Review: Passing through the longest and deepest down cycle (3)
2. TV demand to determine the display market’s supply/demand dynamics (4)
3. OLED TV: Supplier-driven market (5)
4. Smart TV: Apple iTV deserves closer attention (8)
II. Valuation (13)
III. Supply/demand and price outlooks (17)
1. Supply outlook (17)
2. Demand outlook (19)
3. Price outlook (23)
LG Display (034220 KS) (26)
SFA Engineering (056190 KQ) (30)
Avaco (083930 KQ) (33)
Silicon Works (108320 KQ) (36)
I. Investment summary
1. 2011 Review: Passing through the longest and deepest down cycle
LGDês share price has advanced by 30% from the previous bottom in 4Q, after sliding by over 50% from the early-2011 level until end-3Q. LGDês shares appear to be passing through a bottom for the third time since their listing. Global panel makers have been incurring losses for four to five consecutive quarters and are expected to remain in the red until end-1Q12. The current down cycle is projected to be longer and deeper than in the past, since 1) LCD TV sales plunged amid fiscal crises in advanced economies and 2) Chinese panel makers aggressively cut panel prices on the back of the governmentês large-scale subsidies. After display shares hit bottoms in 2006 and 2008, share prices advanced sharply by 78% in 2007 and by 87% in 2009. In both cases, panel prices surged because supply tightened rapidly after panel makers reduced investments. Next year, LCD investments are projected to decrease by over 50% YoY, and leading panel makers have no plans to construct new production lines. However, full-scale mass-production by Chinese panel makers and an already-high LCD TV penetration rate should prevent demand from surging. Thus, share prices are unlikely to rebound as sharply as they did in the past.
Figure 1. LG Displayês share performance and LCD panel price trend
Source: Witsview, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 2. Quarterly operating profit trends of global panel makers
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Display shares are passing through a bottom caused by a plunge in LCD TV sales in advanced economies
The worst has passed, but shares are unlikely to rebound as sharply as before
010,000
20,00030,000
40,000
50,00060,00005
06
07
08
09
10
11
00F 00F -9
-6
-3
3
6
(W)(%)12F
13F
[Supply]
1) No LCD capacity expansion plans
2) Korea: Relocation of existing fabs to China 3) China: Ramp-up and expansion of 8G fabs
4) Taiwan: Liquidity concerns, potential restructuring
-1,500
-1,000
-50005001,0001,5001Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
1Q11
(Wbn)
2. TV demand to determine the display market’s supply/demand dynamics
Will display shares stage a rebound in 2012 (as they did in 2007 and 2009)?
On the supply side, the outlook is positive. Global panel makers are unlikely to expand production capacity due to the degradation of profitability and liquidity. Chinese panel makers, including BOE and CSOT, are expected to account for no more than 10% of global TV panel shipments (even if their 8G lines, which just commenced mass-production, manage to achieve yields in excess of 90%). Based on past experience, Chinese companies are unlikely to achieve full capacity at their 8G lines next year.
Demand for TVs is expected to be the key variable for the supply and demand dynamics of the display market. We expect strong sales of mobile devices (e.g., smartphones and tablet PCs) to continue. However, the demand outlooks for traditional PCs and TVs, which together take up 70% of the display market, remain uncertain. In particular, the display market is waiting with bated breath for the recovery of TV sales, which were stagnant this year.
Black Friday TV sales grew in stores and online by 7% YoY to US$11.4bn and by 24% YoY to US$800mn, respectively, surpassing expectations. The strong sales are thought to be attributable to 1) sales promotions similar to those in previous years and 2) robust consumption in North America, as evidenced by a double-digit growth in LCD TV sales since September. Next year, major sporting events, namely the UEFA Euro 2012 (starting on June 8th ) and the London Olympics (starting on July 27th ), are expected to boost LCD TV demand, particularly in 1H. However, 2H demand should slow down as a result of this pull-in demand.
Figure 3. YoY growth of LCD TV sales in North America
Source: Display Search, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Table 1. Black Friday promotions in 2010 and 2011
Item
2010 2011 Item
2010 2011 TCL 32‰ LCD TV
1366x768 720p 60Hz HDTV US$ 279.99 (US$ 379.99) 26% discount US$ 269.99 (US$ 379.99) 29% discount Vizio 32‰ LCD TV (LED) 1366x768 720p 60Hz HDTV US$ 398.00 (US$ 450.00) 12% discount US$ 428.95 (US$ 499.99) 14% discount Samsung 42‰ PDP TV
1024x768 720p 600Hz HDTV US$ 499.99 (US$ 599.99) 17% discount US$ 399.99 (US$ 499.99) 20% discount LG 42‰ LCD TV
1920x1080 1080p 60Hz HDTV US$ 499.99 (US$ 749.99) 30% discount US$ 499.99 (US$ 699.99) 29% discount Samsung 40‰ LCD TV (LED) 1920x1080 1080p 60Hz HDTV
US$ 899.99 (US$ 1,199.99) 25% discount
US$ 497.99 (US$ 699.99) 29% discount
Samsung 40‰ LCD TV (LED) 1920x1080 240Hz 3D HDTV
US$ 1,599.99 (US$ 1,999.99) 20% discount
US$ 1,199.99 (US$ 1,999.99) 40% discount
Source: GSMArena, Amazon, Best Buy, Target, Walmart, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Supply outlook is positive
Better than expected Black Friday sales
3. OLED TV: Supplier-driven market
1) OLED panels spreading from mobile devices to TVs
OLED panels, which had mostly been adopted in handsets (less than 5‰), have been adopted full swing in larger-sized tablet PCs since 2H11. OLED panels have been used in handsets since 2007. The OLED panel market started to take off in 2009, aided by the proliferation of smartphones. Although OLED cell phones accounted for only 1.7% (20mn units) of total cell phones in 2009, this percentage is expected to rise to 6.1% (95mn units) in 2011 and 9.0% (150mn units) in 2012.
The growth of the OLED market is gaining momentum, as difficulties related to high-resolution displays and the production of larger-sized panels have been addressed. Samsung Electronics (SEC) has recently broken the 300ppi (pixels per inch) barrier in OLED technology with the launches of the Galaxy S II HD and the Galaxy Nexus.
Figure 4. OLED panel shipment area trends and forecast
Source: Display Search, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
OLED cell phone
shipments are expected to jump from
20mn units in 2009 to 150mn in 2012
Table 2. Smartphones and tablet PCs with OLED display panels
Item
Specification / Display technology Item
Specification / Display technology
Galaxy S II
Super AMOLED plus (RGB) 4.3‰ 480x800, 217 PPI Launched in Apr. 2011
Motorola RAZR Super AMOLED (PenTile) 4.3‰ 540x960, 256 PPI Launched in Oct. 2011
Galaxy Note
Super AMOLED (PenTile) 5.3‰ 800x1280, 285 PPI Launched in Nov. 2011
Galaxy Nexus
Super AMOLED (PenTile) 4.65‰ 720x1280, 316 PPI Launched in Nov. 2011
Nokia Lumia 800 AMOLED (PenTile) 3.7‰ 480x800, 252 PPI Launched in Nov. 2011
Galaxy Tab 7.7
Super AMOLED plus (RGB) 7.7‰ 800x1280, 196 PPI Launched in Dec. 2011
Source: GSMArena, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
2) Commercial launch of OLED TVs in 2012; Infiltration of mass market in 2015
Samsung Mobile Display (SMD) has begun mass-producing 5.5G OLED this year. And both SMD and LGD have built 8G pilot lines for TVs. Although 15‰ and 32‰ OLED TVs were announced in the past, OLED TVs have never been commercially launched. At CES 2012, 55‰ OLED TVs are projected to be launched; SEC is expected to unveil a RGB model, while LGD is likely to introduce a white OLED model. In particular, if TV makers produce OLED TVs at large panel lines (instead of at small- to medium-sized panel lines) and use metallic oxide substrates rather than low temperature polysilicon (LTPS), they will likely be able to cut production costs markedly. This should enhance the marketability of their products. Even if OLED TVs are launched next year, their impact on TV demand will likely be limited for the time being, as OLED TVs should account for less than 0.1% (200,000 units) of total TV shipments (230mn units). Taking into account the penetration of LCD TVs, OLED TVs are expected to become widespread (more than 20% of total TV shipments) in 2015, the year in which: 1) 8G capacity is anticipated to reach 400,000 glasses per month (38.4mn units of 40‰ panels per year) and 2) the first new TV replacement cycle since 2007 should arrive (the typical cycle spans 7~8 years).
Figure 5. Penetration trends of CRT TVs and LCD TVs
Figure 6. Proportion and capacity of large area LCD and OLED panels
Source: Display Search, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Display Search, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 7. LCD capacity by generation
Figure 8. OLED capacity by generation
Source: Display Search, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Display Search, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
55‰ OLED TVs are
projected to be launched in CES 2012
OLED TVs should account for less than 0.1% of the total TV shipments in 2012
3) OLED: Suppliers-driven market
The strengths of OLED TVs against LCD TVs are 1) higher visibility and contrast ratio arising from self-illumination, 2) faster response time, and 3) superior color gamut and viewing angles. However, we believe that these picture-related strengths are not enough to convince consumers to purchase higher priced OLED TVs. Rather, consumers might be attracted to the fact that OLEDs could be one third thinner than LCDs and that they have better flexible or transparent properties thanks to plastic substrates.
OLED TVs provide more added value to suppliers than consumers, given that: 1) only top-tier display makers with solid customer bases will be able to enter the market due to the high initial investment burden, increasing their pricing power; 2) OLEDs can deliver higher operating leverage than LCDs thanks to the lower contribution of materials costs, allowing top-tier firms to maintain high profitability and differentiated performance; and 3) there is more room for cost reduction (vs. LCDs). In particular, suppliers will be able to save even more cost if they use oxide substrates instead of LTPS substrates.
Figure 9. Basic structure of LCD panel
Figure 10. Basic structure of OLED panel
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 11. Cost structure of LCD panel
Figure 12. Cost structure of OLED panel
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Superior picture quality alone unlikely to
guarantee a high price premium
OLED TVs to improve profitability at panel
makers
Polarizer 6.5%
Driver IC
3.8%Inverter 5.2%
8.4%
9.7%Yield loss
2.3%Liquid crystal
3.2%
Others Glass
Glass 5.8%
22.7%
6.9%
Other materials
4.2%
Labor cost 8.6%
Yield loss 5.0%Depreciation
35.3%
4. Smart TV: Apple iTV deserves closer attention
In our view, OLED TVs are more of a technology that generates added value for suppliers than one that offers a new experience for consumers. We believe the Apple iTV will have more far-reaching impacts on the market as it is focused on providing a new viewer experience. In other words, while consumers are likely to resist paying high price premiums for OLED TVs, they will likely be willing to pay a hefty price premium for the Apple iTV.
1) Today’s smart TVs lack innovation
Before the iPhone was launched in June 2007, smartphones had already been in the market
for some time. However, they were only embraced by early adopters and failed to gain widespread popularity. At the time, most consumers believed mobile phones should be single purpose devices and were skeptical of IP-based applications.
The release of the iPhone marked a major breakthrough in the consumer perception of smartphones and the industry has been experiencing extraordinary growth ever since. This change in perception has been driven by the innovation of smartphone interfaces and platforms. We believe that the current smart TV industry mimics the smartphone market prior to the release of the iPhone. While companies like SEC and LG Electronics (LGE) have rolled out smart TVs, they have yet to find the optimal interface and platform.
Figure 13. Current smart TV industry is similar to the early stages of the smartphone market
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities
Figure 14. Platform launches and smartphone shipments by manufacturer
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Todayês smart TVs =
smartphones of the pre-iPhone
days
=
51015202530351Q082Q08
3Q084Q081Q092Q093Q094Q09
1Q10
2Q103Q104Q101Q112Q11
3Q114Q11F
Apple Samsung Nokia RIM HTC
(mn units)SEC emerged as the No.1 global smartphone maker over Apple
↑Android 1.0↑Android 1.1↑Android 1.5(Cupcake)↑Android 1.6(Donut)Android 2.0/2.1(Eclair)↑Android 2.2(Froyo)↑Android 2.3(Gingerbread)
Android 3.0(Honeycomb)
↑Android 4.0(Icecream)
↑iOS 1(iPhone)
↑iOS 2(iPhone 3G)
↑iOS 3(iPhone 3GS)
↑
iOS 4(iPhone 4)
↑iOS 5(iPhone 4S)
2) Evolution of interfaces and platforms
As illustrated by the smartphone example, the interfaces and platforms of IT devices are critical to bridge the chasm between early adopters and mainstream users. New products are initially accepted by only a handful of early adopters who value innovation; over time,
general consumers, who place a priority on utility, drive the mainstream market. Many of the IT products that are initially successful fail to capture the mainstream market largely due to their software (not hardware), especially in terms of interface and platform. In the early days of the smartphone industry, companies simply adopted compact versions of the interfaces and platforms of traditional PCs (which use a computer keyboard and mouse). Earlier versions of smartphones were unsuccessful because their interfaces and platforms were not suitable for mobile devices. Appleês iPhone solved this problem by developing a proper interface (full-touch screen) and platform (application-based) for smartphones.
Figure 15. PC interface and IP platform
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 16. Smartphone interface and IP platform
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Interfaces and platforms
are critical to bridging
the chasm in IT products
The smartphone chasm
was closed by a full-
touch interface and an
app-based platform
3) Apple’s iTV paves the way for interface and platform innovation
Finding the proper interface and platform for smart TVs is probably the key challenge for every TV maker. Both SEC and LGE will vie for leadership in the smart TV market as SEC does not want to lose its no.1 position in the TV market while LGE is determined not to repeat the same mistake it made in the smartphone market. However, software providers, rather than hardware makers, are the ones actively engaged in the development of new TV interfaces and platforms, with Apple, Google and Microsoft leading the way. Their common goal is to develop 1) an interface that recognizes voice and motions and 2) a cloud-based streaming technology. We believe that Apple is the most advanced player in the smart TV market (as well as in the smartphone segment), considering that: 1) the iPhone and iPad spawned an ecosystem based on their integrated iOS, and 2) Siri (a voice recognition system for iPhone 4S) is considered far more advanced than any other existing system. Furthermore, the company has reportedly filed for a patent for its cloud-based video transmitting technology.
Lately, some media have reported that Apple plans to produce the iTV at Sharpês 10G LCD lines starting in February 2012 (although Apple has not yet confirmed this). We expect that the Apple iTV will be rolled out in 2H12, and that Sharp and LGD will become the panel suppliers for the product
Figure 17. Steve Jobsê comments on the future of TV
Source: Steve Jobs, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 18. Apple iTVês interface and platform forecast
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
TV revolution will be led by whoever finds the right interface and
platform
Apple acquired Siri last year for US$200mn
"I'd like to create an integrated television set ?"
"It would be seamlessly synced with all your devices and with iCloud ?
"
"It will have the simplest user
interface you could imagine.
I finally cracked it"
"I want to watch KBS""I want to watch sports channels""Please show every channel with Girls Generation"
4) Google TV and Microsoft’s Xbox
Apple, Google and Microsoft have already advanced into the TV market (with set top boxes or TVs), but none of them have produced any meaningful outcomes. Apple is expected to release a full TV model (not a set top box) in 2H12, and Google also plans to launch Google TV 2.0 in partnership with Sony, SEC and LGE in 1H12. Google TV 2.0 is anticipated to provide more content than the previous model, with better interface, search functions and applications.
Google recently acquired Clever Sense, the developer of a voice recognition application named Alfred. If Googleês new TV model is equipped with Majel (a voice recognition project), it should be able to support over 20 different languages vs. the three languages (English, French and German) supported by Appleês Siri.
Microsoftês Kinect (a sensor module) installed in the Xbox game console enables the device to recognize motion as well as voice. Koreaês Pantech has already adopted a motion sensor technology for its smartphone. Going forward, we expect the application of the motion sensor technology to broaden to include TV interface.
Figure 19. Sonyês Google TV
Figure 20. Apple TV (set-top Box)
Source: Sony Source: Apple
Figure 21. Microsoft Xboxês motion sensor - Kinect Figure 22. SKY IM-A800ês (Vega LTE) motion sensor
Source: Microsoft Source: Pantech
Google acquires Clever
Sense, a voice
recognition firm
Microsoft holds a
competitive edge in
motion sensor
technology
Microsoft recently announced a plan to expand its broadcasting content via a firmware upgrade for the Xbox. Microsoft plans to become a virtual cable operator in strategic partnership with existing media firms, utilizing its search engine (Bing) and Kinect interface to catch up with Apple and Google.
Figure 23. TV content enhancement for Microsoftês Xbox
Source: Microsoft
Microsoft has the
potential to increase its presence in the TV market
II. Valuation
1. Overweight; Top picks: LGD, SFA Engineering, Acaco, and Silicon Works
In 2011, the LCD and display-related industries were hit the hardest by the global economic slump. The supply glut intensified, as, after aggressive capacity expansion, TV demand contracted in the wake of the slowdowns of advanced economies. This down cycle became prolonged and deeper as Chinese panel makers significantly cut panel prices on the back of large-scale government subsidies. However, with crises come opportunities. Given that display supply-demand conditions are rapidly changing, companies that are quickly responding to these changes should find opportunities.
The display industry has been de-rated due to structural oversupply. Display-related companiesê valuations plummeted to the 2008 crisis levels before recovering slightly. Since display shares have already reflected the weak 2012 outlook, we believe that companies engaging in growing businesses are attractive.
We maintain our Overweight rating on the display industry. Our top picks are LGD (LGD; 034220 KS/Buy) in light of its specialty product sales expansion; SFA Engineering (056190 KQ/Buy) and Avaco (083930 KQ/Buy) in light of the expected benefits of the growing OLED and oxide-TFT investments; and Silicon Works (108320 KQ/Buy) in light of its focus on sales to Apple.
Table 3. Ratings and target prices for key players in the display industry
Current price Target price
P/E P/B EV/EBITDA
Company Ticker Rating
(W) (W)
(x)
(x)
(x)
LG Display
034220 Buy 23,750 30,000
15.2 0.8
2.3 SFA Engineering 056190 Buy 59,600 80,000 11.0 2.6 6.7 Avaco
083930 Buy 11,900 18,000 10.9 1.4 7.4 Silicon Works 108320 Buy 32,250 40,000 10.7 2.0 6.7 KC Tech
029460 Buy 5,810 8,000 7.2 0.9 5.6 Top Engineering 065130 Trading Buy 5,310 7,000 9.2 0.6 6.8 DMS 068790 Trading Buy 4,785 7,000 6.2 0.6 7.7 MNtech
095500
Trading Buy 5,670 10,000
4.8 0.7
3.5
Note: As of December 15, 2011; Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 24. LG Displayês OP and 12m-fwd P/B trend and forecasts
Figure 25. LG Displayês 12m-fwd P/B band
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Valuations remain at post-crisis levels
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12(W)0.7x
1.0x
1.3x
2.2x
12F
Table 4. Earnings and valuations of global display panel makers
(Wbn, %, x)
Revenues OP
NP ROE P/E
P/B EV/EBITDA
12F 13F
12F
13F
12F
13F
12F 13F
12F
13F
12F
13F
12F 13F
LG Display 28,494 30,489 698 1,208 558 966 5.4 8.7 15.2 8.8 0.8 0.8 2.3 1.9
SEC 183,654 206,467 19,456 21,725 16,981 19,394 15.9 15.6 10.2 8.9 1.6 1.3 4.3 3.9 LGE
56,299 57,718 1,347 1,733 962 1,304 7.5 9.1 14.1 10.4 1.1 1.0 6.6
5.8 Samsung SDI 5,543 6,208 300 353 391 448 5.3 5.4 1
6.6 14.5 0.8 0.8 10.0 8.8 Sharp 42,994 44,325 1,430 1,666 618 789 4.2 5.3 18.3 14.5 0.7 0.7 4.5 4.5 Sony 100,276 101,624 2,809 3,959 1,142 1,826 3.1 4.9 1
7.3 10.8 0.5 0.5 2.8 2.5 Panasonic 122,710 125,389 4,583 5,311 1,934 2,637 5.5 7.0 11.9
8.7 0.6 0.6 4.0 3.7 Hitachi 141,297 141,460 7,249 7,773 3,447 3,729 12.1 12.0 8.2 7.3 1.0 0.9 4.8 4.5 AUO 15,187 16,244 -823 77 -1,011 -102 -12.7 -2.0 - 143.8 0.6 0.6 4.2 2.9 CMI 19,966 21,137 -552 238 -979 -181 -11.9 -1.0 - - 0.5 0.5 5.3 3.5 Avg. 5.1 7.3 14.0 25.3 0.9 0.8 4.8 4.3 Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 26. Share performances of major Korean IT companies
Figure 27. Share performances of global display panel makers
Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Thomson Reuters
Figure 28. ROE-P/B comparison of global display peers (12F)
Figure 29. EBITDA margin trends of global LCD panel makers
Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
-20
-10
0102030
40501Q07
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
1Q11
LG Display
AUO
CMI
(%)
Table 5. Earnings and valuations of global display equipment makers
(Wbn, %, x)
Revenues OP
NP ROE P/E
P/B EV/EBITDA
12F 13F
12F
13F
12F
13F
12F 13F
12F
13F
12F
13F
12F 13F
SFA Engineering 928 1,109 113 151 97 128 24.9 26.6 11.0
8.3 2.6 2.1 6.7 4.5
KC Tech 221 284 23 34 26 34 12.7 14.8 7.2 5.5 0.9 0.8 5.6 3.9 Avaco 185 242
12 19 11 17 13.4 17.2 10.9 7.3 1.4 1.2 7.4 4.7 DMS 164 195 18 24 13 15 7.4
8.2 7.4 6.2 0.6 0.6 8.5 7.7 Top Engineering 108 148 11 19 9 16 6.0 10.5 9.2 4.9 0.6 0.5 6.8
5.0 ULVAC 3,313 3,570 85 135 34 68 1.6 4.6 21.4 11.0 0.5 0.5 8.3 7.0 TEL 8,970 9,942 811 1,223 545 831
6.7 9.2 18.8 12.3 1.1 1.1 5.7 3.9 DNS 3,462 3,777 244 331 163 207 12.2 14.0 12.6 9.9 1.3 1.1
7.6 5.8 MJC 428 524 18 36 12 33 3.7 11.9 9.5 3.6 0.4 0.4 2.7 1.9 TOK 1,162 1,204 112 128 72 82 4.2 4.7 14.3 12.5 0.6 0.5 2.2 2.0 NSK 11,166 11,822 811 911 479 536 11.2 11.6
8.0 7.2 0.9 0.8 5.1 4.7 Avg.
9.4 12.1 11.8 8.1 1.0 0.9 6.0 4.6 Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 30. Share performances of global LCD equipment makers
Figure 31. ROE-P/B comparison of global equipment makers (12F)
Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 32. Market cap/new orders of Korean display equipment
makers (12F)
Figure 33. OP margin trends of global LCD equipment makers (12F)
Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Table 6. Earnings and valuations of global display parts makers (fabless companies)
(Wbn, %, x)
Revenues OP
NP ROE P/E
P/B EV/EBITDA
12F 13F
12F
13F
12F
13F
12F 13F
12F
13F
12F
13F
12F 13F
Silicon Works 405 485 47 59 49
60 20.3 20.8 10.7 8.8 2.0 1.7 6.7 4.9
Nextchip 59 69 13 16 14 17 18.6 19.1 11.7 9.7 2.1 1.8
8.8 7.7 Telechips 91 105 6 10 9 12
8.3 10.5 6.2 4.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 Qualcomm 23,987 26,454 9,378 10,286 8,091 9,278 18.1 19.5 13.3 11.8 2.5 2.2 8.3 7.2 NVIDIA 5,113 5,395 1,110 1,077 973 990 15.9 13.9 10.7 10.1 1.7 1.5 5.7 5.2 Broadcom 8,916 9,964 1,569 1,871 1,876 2,075 19.1 19.7 10.5 9.5 2.1 1.8 7.8 5.4 Marvell
4,143 4,695 876 1,187 891 1,160 13.9 17.2 10.6 8.1 1.4 1.2 6.5 4.5 Novatek 1,399 1,531 183 204 158 179 18.4 19.5 10.2 9.2 1.8 1.7 6.9 6.0 Mediatek 3,981 4,445 683 858 695 802 16.7 18.4 15.9 13.5 2.6 2.4 10.2 9.4 Realtek 839 894 105 105 66 65 9.5 9.8 12.0 12.3 1.2 1.2 4.1 4.0 ARM Holdings 967 1,099 391 484 324 400 15.2 16.5 41.4 34.1 6.4 5.5 29.9 24.3 Avg. 15.8 16.8 13.9 12.0 2.2 2.0 8.7 7.2 Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 34. Share performances of global fabless peers
Figure 35. Share performances of Korean fabless peers
Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Thomson Reuters
Figure 36. ROE-P/B comparison of global fabless peers (12F)
Figure 37. EPSG-P/E comparison of global fabless peers (12F)
Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
III. Supply/demand and price outlooks
1. Supply outlook
1) No LCD capacity expansion plans for 2012
In 2012, global LCD panel production capacity is expected to increase 11% YoY to 220mn Km 2 (in terms of glass area input). Global panel producers have no plans to construct new
Source: Display Search, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 39. Global LCD panel capacity trend and forecasts
Source: Display Search, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Global LCD production capacity is expected to increase 11.4% YoY in 2012
Leading companies are converting existing lines to produce next-
generation products
10
1112F 10
1112F 10
1112F 10
1112F 10
1112F 10
1112F SE C
LGD
CMI
A UO
Sharp
B OE
CMI (L)
2) Korean companies to maintain dominance in the OLED market
SMDês production capacity jumped 277% YoY this year thanks to the operation of its 5.5 line. We expect the companyês production capacity to expand 137% YoY in 2012 on the back of OLED investments in excess of W5tr. New production lines that are scheduled to start investments in 2012 include the 5.5G A3 and the 8G V1 (for TV production).
The number of mobile phones adopting OLED panels, which currently stands at just 20mn units (1.7% of the total), is projected to increase to 95mn units (up 6.1% YoY) in 2011 and to 150mn units (up 9.0% YoY) in 2012. The growth of the OLED market is gaining momentum, as difficulties related to high-resolution displays and the production of larger-sized panels have been addressed. SECês recently-launched Galaxy S II HD and Galaxy Nexus have broken the 300ppi (pixels per inch) barrier with OLED technology.
LGD stopped mass-producing small- to mid-sized OLED panels, but the company is expected to invest in TV-use OLED lines. The company is likely to use oxide substrates, not the LTPS substrates used by SMD. As LGD can utilize its existing TFT LCD lines for oxide substrate production, mass-production should improve the companyês investment efficiency.
Table 7. New lines of global LCD makers (?000 sheets/month)
Company
Factory
Phase
Gen.
1Q11
2Q11 3Q11 4Q11F 1Q12F 2Q12F
3Q12F
4Q12F 1 8 100
100 100 100 100 100 100
100 SEC L8-2
2 8 50 70 80 80 80 80 80 80 1 8 125
125 125 125 140 140 140 140 2 8 120
120 135 135 140 140 140 140 P8 3 8 10
40 60 60 70 70 70 70 LGD
P9 1 8 -
- - - - 20 50 60 1 8 5
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 8 20
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 CMI Fab8 3 8 -
10 20 25 30 30 33 33 AUO L8B 1 8
25 40 45 45 47 50 50 1 6 30
30 30 30 30 30 30 30 2 6 20
30 30 30 30 30 30 30 B3 3 6 - 20 30 30 30 30 30 30 1 8 -
- 5 35 45 45 45 45 BOE
B4
2 8 - - - - 15 30 45 45 1 6 -
- 20 40 60 65 65 65 CEC Panda Nanjing
2 6 - - - 7 15 18 18 18 1 8 -
- - 15 30 45 50 60 CSOT Shenzhen
2 8 - -
-
-
-
15 30
45
Source: Display Search, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Table 8. New lines of global OLED makers (?000 sheets/month)
Company
Factory
Phase
Gen.
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11F
1Q12F
2Q12F
3Q12F
4Q12F
A1 1 4(1/2)
45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 1 5.5(1/4)
- 8 44 56 64 64 72 80 2 5.5(1/4)
- 8 28 32 32 32 32 32 A2 3 5.5(1/4)
- - - - - - 8 16 A3 1 5.5 - - - - - - - 12 SMD
V1 1 8(1/6) - - - - 3 6 6 6 AP1 1 4(1/2)
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 4(1/2)
4 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 AP2
2 4(1/2)
- 4 5 10 10 10 10 10 LG Display
M1* 1 8(1/2)
-
-
-
-
2
4 8
8
*Note: LG Displayês M1 is expected to be an 8G white OLED production facility Source: Display Search, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
OLED production capacity to increase 137% YoY in 2012
Overseas peers are not capable of investing heavily in OLED
Source: Display Search, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Display Search, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
2) TV panel demand outlook
In 2012, we expect LCD TV demand to jump 12%, to 227.8mn units. Moreover, emerging economies should surpass advanced economies in terms of LCD TV shipments for the first time in history. Shipments to advanced economies contracted 6% this year, but should edge up 1%, to 105mn units, next year. Shipments to emerging economies soared 28% this year, and should surge 24%, to 122.8mn units in 2012.
Next year, major sporting events, namely the UEFA Euro 2012 (starting on June 8th ) and the London Olympics (starting on July 27th ), are expected to boost LCD TV demand, particularly in 1H. In 2H, however, demand may slow slightly, as a result of this pull-in demand and consumers waiting for the release of new products.
We expect 1) the spread of low-end LED TVs and 2) the release of innovative products such as OLED TVs and the Apple iTV to deepen polarization in the TV market. Low-end LED TVs cut production costs by 15% (vs. high-end edge-type LED models) by eliminating expensive parts such as LGP (light guide plate) and optical film. Although the OLED TV and Apple iTV markets are unlikely to pick up sharply next year, they should lead TV market growth in the mid- to long-term. In particular, Appleês iTV will likely present a new TV platform.
Figure 44. Global TV shipment trend and forecasts
Figure 45. Global LED TV shipment trend and forecasts
Source: Display Search, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Display Search, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
Figure 46. TV shipment trend and forecasts in developed countries
Figure 47. TV shipment trend and forecasts in developing countries
Source: Display Search, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Display Search, KDB Daewoo Securities Research
LCD TV demand to rise 12% (up 1% in
advanced markets; up 24% in emerging markets)
工程成本费用估算表构成明细 一、土地费用： 1、土地使用权出让金：地价款； 2、征地补偿费：适用于划拨地； 3、拆迁安置补偿费：适用用拆迁用地； 4、土地交易费：契税,按地价地3%计收； 二、前期工程费： 1、地籍测绘费： 按土地面积0.3元/平M左右计；（可忽略不计） 2、总体规划设计费： 经验值：土地面积2元/平M左右；（注：通常规划设计与建筑设计均委托一家,又未采取方案招标地,此笔费用可不支出） 3、地质勘察费： 地勘均是根据钻点数及钻探深度来计取费用,每M单价根据土质情况及工程量大小不等（50-90元/M）,无固定经验值,因总价较小,不对指标产生影响,地质较均匀地可按间隔25M 至30M取1个孔,每孔深度平均可按20M估计,每M单价70元左右； 4、建筑设计费： 有设计收费标准规范,但实际市场因竞争都未按此计收；收费标准是按不同档建安造价按费率计取；通行按建筑面积每平M15元计取；（普通住宅18~25元/平M左右,小区内单体较雷同地,设计收费会更低） 5、工程招标代理咨询费： 有专门地计价标准,但市场通行打折较多,通常招标代理及编制标底费：建安造价地 1.8‰~2.5‰； 6、质量安全监督费： 根据文件规定收取； 7、工程监理费： 有物价局地定价标准,市场通行打五折,通常工程监理费：建安造价地0.8%~1.2%；总造价越大,费率越低. 8、建设综合配套费： 在北京市为元/平M； 9、人防费： 人防异地建设费：如果工程自身确无法建人防面积,则应按应建人防面积, 每平M1640元左右（各地人防办有专门计价标准）缴纳异地建设费；（有些地市会加收人防设计费按人防面积每平M30元左右） 10、施工图审查费： 建筑面积2元/平M； 11、报建费： 办理施工许可证时需建设单位缴纳地费用.但此笔费用实际已包括在建安工程预算成本中,但因需要提前缴纳,故有些估算表中考虑前期投入资金会列此笔费用；北京市主要有以下几项： 散装水泥专项资金：0.69元/平M； 新型墙体材料专项基金：8元/平M； 电气防火检测费:0.5元/平M(普通住宅) 避雷装置检测费: 1.1元/平M(普通住宅)
1、土地使用权出让金：地价款； 2、征地补偿费：适用于划拨地； 3、拆迁安置补偿费：适用用拆迁用地； 4、土地交易费：契税，按地价的3%计收； 二、前期工程费： 1、地籍测绘费： 按土地面积元/平米左右计；（可忽略不计） 2、总体规划设计费： 经验值：土地面积2元/平米左右；（注：通常规划设计与建筑设计均委托一家，又未采取方案招标的，此笔费用可不支出） 3、地质勘察费： 地勘均是根据钻点数及钻探深度来计取费用，每米单价根据土质情况及工程量大小不等（50-90元/米），无固定经验值，因总价较小，不对指标产生影响，地质较均匀的可按间隔25米至30米取1个孔，每孔深度平均可按20米估计，每米单价70元左右； 4、建筑设计费： 有设计收费标准规范，但实际市场因竞争都未按此计收；收费标准是按不同档建安造价按费率计取；通行按建筑面积每平米15元计取；（普通住宅18~25元/平米左右，小区内单体较雷同的，设计收费会更低） 5、工程招标代理咨询费： 有专门的计价标准，但市场通行打折较多，通常招标代理及编制标底费：建安造价的‰~‰； 6、质量安全监督费： 根据文件规定收取； 7、工程监理费： 有物价局的定价标准，市场通行打五折，通常工程监理费：建安造价的%~%；总造价越大，费率越低。 8、建设综合配套费： 在北京市为元/平米； 9、人防费： 人防异地建设费：如果项目自身确无法建人防面积，则应按应建人防面积，每平米1640元左右（各地人防办有专门计价标准）缴纳异地建设费；（有些地市会加收人防设计费按人防面积每平米30元左右） 10、施工图审查费： 建筑面积2元/平米；
11、报建费： 办理施工许可证时需建设单位缴纳的费用。但此笔费用实际已包括在建安工程预算成本中，但因需要提前缴纳，故有些估算表中考虑前期投入资金会列此笔费用；北京市主要有以下几项： A.散装水泥专项资金：元/平米； B.新型墙体材料专项基金：8元/平米； C.电气防火检测费:元/平米(普通住宅) D.避雷装置检测费: 元/平米(普通住宅) 三、建安工程费：（均按北京概算取全费估算，费率26%左右） 1、小高层住宅（8层~13层）：1720~1820元/平米，其中： 土建1450元/平米；[含结构、公共区域精装、户内粗装] 安装315元/平米；[含电气、给排水、采暖通风、消防、智能综合布线] 2、高层住宅（13层~33层）：1850~2150元/平米，其中： 土建1520元/平米[含结构、公共区域精装、户内粗装] 安装385元/平米[含电气、给排水、采暖通风、消防、智能综合布线] 3、底层商业建筑(框剪结构)：3100~3500元/平米，其中： 土建2000元/平米[含结构、公共区域精装、营业部分初装] 安装1100元/平米[含电气、自动扶梯、给排水、采暖通风、中央空调、消防、智能综合布线] 4、学校等其他公用建筑（4层框架）2050~2200元/平米，其中： 土建1750元/平米[含结构、室内外简装] 安装300元/平米[含电气、给排水、采暖通风、消防、智能综合布线] 5、会所等公用建筑(框剪)：3800~4200元/平米，其中： 土建3000元/平米[含结构、初装] 安装800元/平米[含电气、给排水、采暖通风、消防、智能综合布线] 四、其它建安设备费： 1、电梯设备费：（电梯安装费：设备费的10%）； 电梯主要根据载重吨位、时速以及品牌和配置不同，价位差别较大，通常时速提高一档，价格提高较多；市场上通用的品牌，如西奥、富士达、广日等价位基本同，以上述品牌电梯为例： A． 800kg~1000kg，s~s，30万元/台左右； B．1000kg，2m/s，23层23站，45万元/台；
1. 项目成本估算的工作内容 成本估算包括识别和考虑各种成本计算方案。成本估算过程考虑预期的成本节省是否能够弥补额外设计工作的成本。在项目进程中，可对成本估算进行细化，反映额外的详细细节。在整个项目生命期内，项目估算的准确性随着项目的绩效而提高。 编制项目成本估算需要进行三个土要步骤。 (1)识别并分析成本的构成科目。该部分的主要工作就是确定完成项目活动需要物质资源的种类。 (2)根据已识别的项目成本构成科目，估算每一科目的成本大小。 (3)分析成本估算结果，找出各种可以相互替代的成本，协调各种成本之间的比例关系。 2.项目成本估算的依据 项目成本估算的依据包括以下内容： 1)．事业环境因素 成本估算过程考虑市场条件，在市场中从谁、在何种条件和条款下能够得到何种产品、服务和结果。 2)．组织过程资产 在编制成本管理计划时，将考虑现存的正式和非正式的计划、方针、程序和指导原则，选择使用的成本估算工具、监测和报告方法。包括： (1)成本估算方针。一些组织已预先定义了成本估算的方针。 (2)成本估算模板。一些组织已建立了供项目团队使用的模板（或格式标准）。 (3)历史信息。从组织内部不同的地方获得的与项目产品和服务有关的信息将影响到项目成本。 (4)项目文档。参与项目的一个或多个组织将留存以前项目实施记录。
(5)项目团队知识。项目团队成员可能回忆起以前的实际成本或成本估算。 (6)吸取的教训。吸取的教训包括从以前执行的类似项目中（范围和规模类似）获得的成本估算。 3)．项目范围说明书 包括制约因素、假设和需求。制约因素是限制成本估算的特定因素。 4)．工作分解结构 项目的工作分解结构( WBS)说明了项日所有组成部分与项目交付成果之间的关系。 5)．工作分解结构词汇表 工作分解结构词汇表和相关的详细工作说明书提供了可交付成果的标识和完成每个可交付成果所需的WBS组件的工作说明。 6)．项目管理计划 项目管理计划提供了执行、监控项目的总体计划，其中包括为成本管理规划和控制提供指导的从属计划。如果有其他计划成果，则应在成本估算时考虑。 (1)进度管理计划。决定项目成本的主要因素是资源的类型利数量，以及这些资源应用到完成项目工作的时间。 (2)人员配备管理计划。项目人员的属性和人工费率是编制进度计划成本估算的必要组成部分。 (3)风险登记册。当编制成本估算时，成本估算师将考虑风险应对方面的信息。 3.项目成本估算的工作方法 项目成本估算的工作方法包括以下内容。 1)．类比估算 类比估算足一种专家判断。成本类比估算，指利用过去类似项目的实际成本作为当前项
项目成本费用估算表中可变成本包括哪些费用？ 项目成本费用估算表中可变成本包括哪些费用？具体费用应该用什么基数计算？ 固定资产投资估算方法 （一）静态投资部分的估算方法 1.单位生产能力估算法 计算公式为： C2=（C1/Q1）*Q2*f C1—已建类似项目的投资额； C2—拟建项目投资额； Q1—已建类似项目的生产能力； Q2—拟建项目的生产能力； F—不同时期、不同地点的定额、单价、费用变更等的综合调整系数。 单位生产能力估算法估算误差较大，可达±30％。此法只能是粗略地快速估算，由于误差大，应用该估算法时需要小心，应注意以下几点： （1）地方性。建设地点不同，地方性差异主要表现为：两地经济情况不同；土壤、地质、水文情况不同；气候、自然条件的差异；材料、设备的来源、运输状况不同等。 （2）配套性。一个工程项目或装置，均有许多配套装置和设施，也可能产生差异，如：公用工程、辅助工程、厂外工程和生活福利工程等，这些工程随地方差异和工程规模的变化均各不相同，它们并不与主体工程的变化成线性关系。 （3）时间性。工程建设项目的兴建，不一定是在同一时间建设，时间差异或多或少存在，在这段时间内可能在技术、标准、价格等方面发生变化。 2.生产能力指数法 生产能力指数法又称指数估算法，它是根据已建成的类似项目生产能力和投资额来粗略估算拟建项目投资额的方法。其计算公式为：C2=C1（Q2/Q1）X*f 式中 X-生产能力指数。 其他符号含义同前。 上式表明，造价与规模（或容量）呈非线性关系，且单位造价随工程规模（或容量）的增大而减小。在正常情况下，0≤x≤1.不同生产率水平的国家和不同性质的项目中，x的取值是不相同的。比如化工项目美国取x=0.6，英国取x=0.66，日本取x=0.7. 若已建类似项目的生产规模与拟建项目生产规模相差不大，Q1与Q2的比值在0.5-2之间，则指数x的取值近似为1. 若已建类似项目的生产规模与拟建项目生产规模相差不大于50倍，且拟建项目生产规模的扩大仅靠增大设备规模来达到时，则x的取值约在0.6-0.7之间；若是靠增加相同规格设备的数量达到时，x的取值约在0.8—0.9 之间。 指数法主要应用于拟建装置或项目与用来参考的已知装置或项目的规模不同的场合。 生产能力指数法与单位生产能力估算法相比精确度略高，其误差可控制在±20％以内，尽管估价误差仍较大，但有它独特的好处：即这种估价方法不需要详细的工程设计资料，只知道工艺流程及规模就可以；其次对于总承包工程而言，可作为估价的旁证，在总承包工程报价时，承包商大都采用这种方法估价。 3.系数估算法 系数估算法也称为因子估算法，它是以拟建项目的主体工程费或主要设备费为基数，以其他工程费占主体工程费的百分比为系数估算项目总投资的方法。这种方法简单易行，但是精度较低，一般用于项目建议书阶段。系数估算法的种类很多，下面介绍几种主要类型。 （1）设备系数法。以拟建项目的设备费为基数，根据已建成的同类项目的建筑安装费和其他工程费等占设备价值的百分比，求出拟建项目建筑安装工程费和其他工程费，进而求出建设项目总投资。其计算公式如下：C=E（1+flpl+f2p2+f3p3+.。。。。。） +I 式中C-拟建项目投资额；
项目成本费用估算表构成明细 一、土地费用： 1、土地使用权出让金：地价款； 2、征地补偿费：适用于划拨地； 3、拆迁安置补偿费：适用用拆迁用地； 4、土地交易费：契税，按地价的3%计收； 二、前期工程费： 1、地籍测绘费： 按土地面积0.3元/平米左右计；（可忽略不计） 2、总体规划设计费： 经验值：土地面积2元/平米左右；（注：通常规划设计与建筑设计均委托一家，又未采取方案招标的，此笔费用可不支出） 3、地质勘察费： 地勘均是根据钻点数及钻探深度来计取费用，每米单价根据土质情况及工程量大小不等（50-90元/米），无固定经验值，因总价较小，不对指标产生影响，地质较均匀的可按间隔25米至30米取1个孔，每孔深度平均可按20米估计，每米单价70元左右； 4、建筑设计费： 有设计收费标准规范，但实际市场因竞争都未按此计收；收费标准是按不同档建安造价按费率计取；通行按建筑面积每平米15元计取；（普通住宅18~25元/平米左右，小区内单体较雷同的，设计收费会更低） 5、工程招标代理咨询费： 有专门的计价标准，但市场通行打折较多，通常招标代理及编制标底费：建安造价的1.8‰~2.5‰； 6、质量安全监督费： 根据文件规定收取； 7、工程监理费： 有物价局的定价标准，市场通行打五折，通常工程监理费：建安造价的0.8%~1.2%；总造价越大，费率越低。 8、建设综合配套费： 在北京市为元/平米； 9、人防费： 人防异地建设费：如果项目自身确无法建人防面积，则应按应建人防面积，每平米1640元左右（各地人防办有专门计价标准）缴纳异地建设费；（有些地市会加收人防设计费按人防面积每平米30元左右） 10、施工图审查费： 建筑面积2元/平米； 11、报建费： 办理施工许可证时需建设单位缴纳的费用。但此笔费用实际已包括在建安工程预算成本中，但因需要提前缴纳，故有些估算表中考虑前期投入资金会列此笔费用；北京市主要有以下几项： 散装水泥专项资金：0.69元/平米； 新型墙体材料专项基金：8元/平米； 电气防火检测费:0.5元/平米(普通住宅) 避雷装置检测费: 1.1元/平米(普通住宅)
费用项目计费标准与依据总价单价 一．土地费用１．土地出让地价款２．征地费３．拆迁安置补偿费４．土地转让费５．土地投资折价６．土地租用费 二．前期工程费 １．地质勘测测绘费设计概算的０．５％左右元２．规划设计费建安工程费的３％左右３．可行性研究费占总投资的１％－３％４．道路费５．供水费６．供电费７．土地平整费 三．基础设施建设费１．供电工程２．供水工程３．供气工程４．排污工程５．小区道路工程６．路灯工程７．小区绿化工程８．环卫设施 四．建安工程费１．单项工程多层800 ２．单项工程小高层1300 ３．单项工程高层1800 五．公共配套设施建设费１．居委会２．派出所３．托儿所４．幼儿园５．公共厕所６．停车场 六．开发间接费 七．管理费用约为前五项的３％左右 八．销售费用销售收入的４％－６％ 九．财务费用年贷款40%,贷款利率% 十．开发期间税费１．固定资产投资方向调节税２．土地使用税３．市政支管线分摊费４．供电贴费５．用电权费６．分散建设市政公用设施建设费７．绿化建设费８．电话初装费 十一．其他费用１．临时用地２．临建图３．施工图预算或标底编制费４．工程合同预算或标底审查费５．招标管理费６．总承包管理费７．合同公证费８．施工执照费９．工程质量监督费１０．工程监理费１１．竣工图编制费１２．工程保险费 十二．不可预见费前十项之和的３％－７％合计上述十二项之和
房地产开发项目投资可行性研究及融资方案编制一种编制房地产项目可行性研究报告、融资方案、项目建议书的方法与技术，这种方法集方便、快速、速成、安全等优点的房地产可行性研究或融资软件：房地产经济评价可行性研究及概预决算管理系统：房地产投资分析软件（房地产投资估算软件、房地产投资专家系统、房地产项目评估软件、房地产投资项目可行性研究与分析决策软件）可实现房地产项目投资成本分析、房地产投资收益分析、房地产投资经营分析、房地产经济分析与评价、房地产项目投资决策分析与评价、房地产投资可行性分析与评价、房地产项目投资风险分析与决策，包含投资成本测算、经营成本测算、经营收入测算（销售收入、租赁收入）、投资计划（含分期投资计划、投资分类计划）、资金筹措计划（融资分析）、房地产项目财务分析和房地产项目财务评价（销售收入与经营税金及附加表、租赁收入与经营税金及附加表、还款付息表、损益表、现金流量表、资本来源与应用表、资产负债表、投资分类损益表）、非土地拍卖和土地拍卖多方案经济分析、临界点分析（含盈亏平衡分析）、敏感性分析、概率分析快速电算化，并可撰写房地产项目可行性研究报告、房地产项目建议书和房地产商业计划书，为房地产开发或固定资产置业投资企业（单位）的项目投资决策，房地产预可行性研究、预项目实施过程中成本核算、成本控制和项目竣工后的财务决算、房地产项目后评价提供依据，是实现房地产项目管理中的投资分析、房地产项目投资决策分析、房地产投资项目评估，编制房地产项目策划书（报告）、房地产项目投资可行性分析研究报告、房地产项目建议书（报告）、房地产项目评估书（报告）、房地产项目贷款评估书（报告）及土地拍卖土地报价研究报告的好助手，也是房地产市场分析的不可缺少的工具，也可方便使用于投资领域的房地产行业分析。是房地产项目投资咨询师、房地产策划师的助手。目前该系统已形成三大版本（标准版、专业版、企业版），为了合适大众化需要开发的标准版并以几百元/套超低价格入市，并附送正版光盘及成功的操作方案并包教会初学者编制房地产可行性研究报告。
总成本费用估算表 辅助报表 4 单位：万元序年份合计 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 号项目 1 外购原材料68862.5 2 4395.48 5860.64 7325.80 7325.80 7325.80 7325.80 7325.80 7325.80 7325.80 7325.80 2 外购燃料及动力5242.94 344.66 446.21 557.76 557.76 557.76 557.76 557.76 557.76 557.76 557.76 3 工资及福利2160.00 216.00 216.00 216.00 216.00 216.00 216.00 216.00 216.00 216.00 216.00 4 修理费1076.10 107.61 107.61 107.61 107.61 107.61 107.61 107.61 107.61 107.61 107.61 5 折旧费1481.50 148.15 148.15 148.15 148.15 148.15 148.15 148.15 148.15 148.15 148.15 6 摊销费78.00 8.80 8.80 8.80 8.80 8.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 7 利息支出511.26 119.43 109.80 83.83 36.96 26.87 26.87 26.87 26.87 26.87 26.87 7.1 长期借款利息254.35 100.44 86.87 56.96 10.08 7.2 流动资金借款利息256.91 18.99 22.93 26.87 26.87 26.87 26.87 26.87 26.87 26.87 26.87 8 其他费用5543.20 554.32 554.32 554.32 554.32 554.32 554.32 554.32 554.32 554.32 554.32 8.1 销售费用2088.00 208.80 208.80 208.80 208.80 208.80 208.32 208.80 208.80 208.80 208.80 8.2 其他制造费用215.20 21.52 21.52 21.52 21.52 21.52 21.52 21.52 21.52 21.52 21.52 8.3 其他管理费用3240.00 324.00 324.00 324.00 324.00 324.00 324.00 324.00 324.00 324.00 324.00 8.4 其他财务费 9 总成本费用84955.53 5884.44 7451.53 9002.27 8955.40 8945.31 8943.31 8943.31 8943.31 8943.31 8943.31 其中 :1、固定成本10850.06 1154.31 1144.68 1118.71 1071.84 1061.75 1059.75 1059.75 1059.75 1059.75 1059.75 2、可变成本74105.46 4730.14 6306.85 7883.56 7883.56 7883.56 7883.56 7883.56 7883.56 7883.56 7883.56 10 经营成本82884.76 5068.07 7184.78 8761.49 8761.49 8761.49 8761.49 8761.49 8761.49 8761.49 8761.49
公司理财 附表1 总成本费用估算表 项目名称 金额 （万元） 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 生产负荷 0 50% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 原辅料 1474.750 737.38 1474.751474.751474.751474.751474.75 1474.751474.751474.751474.751474.75燃料及动力 1394 0 697.00 1394.001394.001394.001394.001394.00 1394.001394.001394.001394.001394.00工资及福利 280 0 140.00 280.00280.00280.00280.00280.00 280.00280.00280.00280.00280.00管理费用 483 0 241.50 483.00483.00483.00483.00483.00 483.00483.00483.00483.00483.00销售费用 644 0 322.00 644.00644.00644.00644.00644.00 644.00644.00644.00644.00644.00维修费用 0 80.50 161.00161.00161.00161.00161.00 161.00161.00161.00161.00161.00利息支出 161 0.00 47.60 94.29 94.29 94.29 94.29 94.29 94.29 94.29 94.29 94.29 94.29 固定资 产折旧 360.70 360.70360.70360.70360.70360.70 360.70360.70360.70360.70360.70 摊销费 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 总成本费用 0 2626.67 4891.744891.744891.744891.744891.74 4891.744891.744891.744891.744891.74固定成本 0 1192.30 2022.992022.992022.992022.992022.99 2022.992022.992022.992022.992022.99可变成本 0 1434.38 2868.752868.752868.752868.752868.75 2868.752868.752868.752868.752868.75经营成本 2218.38 4436.75 4436.75 4436.75 4436.754436.75 4436.75 4436.75 4436.75 4436.75 4436.75 盈亏平衡点 48.59% 第 1 页 共 4 页
一、营业收入及税金得估算 (一)营业收入得估算 营业收入=产品或服务数量量×单位价格 (二)相关税金得估算 1.增值税 案例考试一般不考虑增值税得问题。所有价格均不含增值税。 2、营业税金及附加 营业税金及附加就是指包含在营业收入之内得营业税、消费税、资源税、城市维护建设税、教育费附加等内容。 考试时一般会简化,告诉计算方法,例如:以营业额为基数,营业税金及附加费率为10%。 (三)补贴收入 案例考试一般也会回避“补贴收入”,考了一定就会告诉您就是否计算所得税。 二、成本与费用得估算 (一)总成本费用估算 1.总成本费用构成与计算 (1)生产成本加期间费用估算法 总成本费用=生产成本+期间费用 其中,生产成本=直接材料费+直接燃料与动力费+直接工资+其她直接支出+制造费用 期间费用=管理费用+财务费用+营业费用 (2)生产要素估算法
总成本费用=外购原材料、燃料及动力费+工资薪酬+折旧费 +摊销费+修理费+利息支出+其她费用 式中其她费用包括其她制造费用、其她管理费用与其她营业费用这三项费用,就是指由制造费用、管理费用与营业费用中分别扣除工资或薪酬、折旧费、摊销费与修理费等以后得其余部分。 按生产要素法估算得总成本费用,其结果列入“总成本费用估算表”,见下表。 总成本费用估算表(生产要素法) 人民币单位:万元 序 号 项目合计 计算期 … n 1 外购原 材料
2 外购燃料及动力费 3 工资及福利费 4 修理费 5 其她费用 6 经营成本 (1+2+3+4+ 5) 7 折旧费 8 摊销费 9 利息支出
10 总成本费用合计(6+7+8+9) 其中:固定成本 可变成本 表总成本6+7+8+9 其中固定可变 上表中只有工资与福利费用,固定成本就是计时工资,可变成本就是计件工资,怎么区分固定成本=折旧+摊销+利息+计件工资+修理+其她就是不就是4+5+7+8+9项
总成本费用的估算 一、总成本费用的构成 生产成本加期间费用估算法 总成本费用由生产成本和期间费用两部分构成。 1．生产成本的构成 生产成本也称制造成本，是指企业生产经营过程中实际消耗的直接材料、直接工资、其他直接支出和制造费用。 1)直接材料 它包括企业生产经营过程中实际消耗的原材料、辅助材料、设备配件、外购半成品、燃料、动力、包装物、低值易耗品以及其他直接材料等。 2)直接工资 直接工资包括企业直接从事产品生产人员的工资、奖金、津贴和补贴。 3)其他直接支出 其他直接支出包括直接从事产品生产人员的职工福利费等。 4)制造费用 制造费用是指企业各个生产单位(分厂、车间)为组织和管理生产所发生的各项费用，包括各生产单位车问、分厂管理人员的工资、职工的福利费、折旧费、维简费、修理费、物料消耗及低值易耗品摊销、劳动保护费、水电费、办公费、差旅费、运输费、保险费、租赁费(不包括融资租赁费)、设计制图费、试验检验费、环境保护费以及其他制造费用等。制造费用一般是间接计人成本，当制造费用发生时一般无法再接判定它所归属的成本计算对象，因而不能直接计入所生产的产品成本中去，而须按费用发生的地方先行归集，月终时再采用一定的方法在各成本计算对象间进行分配，计入各成本计算对象的成本中。 2．期间费用的构成 期间费用是指在一定会计期间发生的与生产经营没有直接关系或关系不密切的管理费 用、财务费用和销售费用。期间费用不计入产品的生产成本，直接体现为当期损益。 1)管理费用 管理费用是指企业行政管理部门为管理和组织经营活动所发生的各项费用。包括公司 经费(工厂总部管理人员工资、职工福利费、差旅费、办公费、折旧费、修理费、物料消 耗及低值易耗品摊销(以及其他公司经费)、工会经费、职工教育经费、劳动保险费、董事 总成本费用 生产成本 期间费用 直接费用 制造费用——间接费用（分摊计入成本） 直接材料（含燃料、动力） 直接工资及福利费 其他直接支出 管理费用 财务费用 营业费用 直接计入成本
在项目财务分析中，为了对运营期间的总费用一目了然，将管理费用、财务费用和营业费用这三项费用与生产成本合并为总成本费用。 成本是指企业为生产产品、提供劳务等发生的费用，可归属于产品成本、劳务成本。费用是指企业在日常活动中发生的会导致所有者权益减少的、与向所有者分配利润无关的经济利益的总流出，主要是管理费用、财务费用和营业费用这三项。 成本与费用(cost)的种类：成本与费用按其计算范围可分为单位产品成本和总成本费用;按成本与产量的关系分为固定成本和可变成本;按会计核算的要求有生产成本或称制造成本;按财务分析的特定要求有经营成本。 (1)总成本费用构成 总成本费用是指在一定时期(如1年)内因生产和销售产品发生的全部费用。总成本费用的构成和估算通常采用以下两种方法。 1)生产成本加期间费用估算法 从总成本费用的形成过程来看，总成本由生产成本和期间费用构成，即：总成本费用=生产成本+期间费用 其中，生产成本=直接材料费+直接燃料和动力费+直接工资及福利费+其他直接支出+制造费用 即，生产成本=直接费用+制造费用。制造费用是指企业各生产车间为组织和管理生产所发生的各项费用。 期间费用=管理费用+财务费用+营业费用 期间费用是指一定会计期间内发生的与生产经营没有直接关系和关系不密切的管理费用、财务费用、营业费用等。 管理费用是企业行政管理部门为管理和组织经营活动发生的各项费用。财务费用是指企业为筹集资金而发生的各项费用。营业费用是企业在销售产品和提供服务过程中发生的费用。 ① 制造费用包括生产单位管理人员工资和福利费、折旧费、修理费(生产单位和管理用房屋、建筑物、设备)、办公费、水电费、机物料消耗、劳动保护费，