State of the Industry Report
and Research & Development Shanghai Automotive and Die Casting
Exhibition
October 31, 2013
Presented by Steve Udvardy
GDP Growth is Slow and Getting Slower
Problematic
Large Impact on China
Economists Predict "Tepid" Growth In 2013
44 professional economic forecasters, all members of the National Association of Business Economists predict that next year "will have only tepid growth." The economists "have pretty much discounted all the political rhetoric about what will happen to the economy if the 'Bush-era tax cuts' are not renewed. ... Instead, the economists in the survey say the dominant force behind the US economy will be the slowing economies in China and Europe."
Growth in Recovery Periods: 5-6%
Obama’s Policies Are Stunting Economic Expansion President Obama's tough restrictions on oil and gas development in the Gulf, off the Atlantic and Pacific Coasts and in Alaska do not reduce U.S. petroleum consumption but merely shift exploration and production to costlier and riskier locations abroad. EPA limits on CO2 emissions encourage manufacturers to locate in countries where similar regulations do not apply. Both kill U.S. jobs without an environmental benefit.
Difficult Decisions to be Made
(Energy, Trade, Tax)
Unnecessary outsourcing>half the $600B trade deficit
Businesses Understand the Economic Uncertainty Created by Federal Policies and are Holding
Money on the Sidelines
$869B
Mega-Corps: $1.73T in cash
$500B could add 2.4M jobs and 1+% GDP
these excess liquid assets into productive investments,
finding that U.S. employment could expand by about
Die casters can create jobs but…
Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Trending Downward
U.S. GDP Below 2% for all of 2012
Growing GDP is Pertinent to Reducing Unemployment
What Should be Worked on at the
Federal Level
?Create Scientific Requirements for EPA Regulations ?Implement an Energy Policy that Makes Us Oil Independent
?Balance Our Trade
?Eliminate Corporate Tax
?Get out of the Way of Business and Give Business the Confidence to Spend Domestically
This Could Add 3% to Our GDP
U.S. is 4th in Tons of Metal Castings Produced
2011 Data
HPDC is 70-75% of Non-ferrous Castings in U.S.
Million Tonnes Produced in
2010Million Tonnes
Produced in
2011Facilities
Tonnes
Production/Facility
(2010)
Tonnes
Production/Facility
(2011)
China 2.12 2.917000303416 European Union 1.14 1.2171016061704 Germany0.390.4219020532211 Italy0.40.4121019051952 France0.120.138015001625 Other0.230.2523010001087 North America 1.03 1.1454518902092 United States0.780.8845017331956 Canada0.120.135521822364 Mexico0.110.134027503250 India0.470.5239012051333 Japan0.96 1.0161015741656 Brazil0.210.2113016151615 Russia0.230.185******** Other Asia0.440.481090404440 Korea0.240.26600400433 Eastern Europe0.230.25500460500
All Other0.510.53900567589 Total 7.278.4412500582675 China Leads in DC Production -North America Leads in Productivity
Worldwide Automotive
Production
>107M by 2020
Forecast: 200/1000 by 2020
Doing the Math
?Auto DC Aluminum content to grow from 114# in 2012 to over 143# in 2020.
?Auto production in 2020 = 107.1 M
?107.1 M * 143 = 15.9 Billion pounds of aluminum die castings in 2020 –just for automobiles!!?The U.S. produced 1.4 Billion pounds in 2012 for automotive use.
?This doesn’t include any Structural Conversions.