BP Statistical Review of World Energy
June 2014
BP世界能源统计年鉴
2014年6月
https://www.doczj.com/doc/4c3304635.html,/statisticalreview #BPstats
Energy in 2013: T aking stoc k
2013能源市场:消费增长,库存支撑
Introduction
引言
Energy and the economy
能源和经济
Fuel by fuel
各类燃料的发展状况
Conclusion
结语
Christof Rühl.16 June 2014
克里斯托夫·鲁尔2014年6
月?BP 2014
Energy in 2013: Taking s t o ck
2013能源市场:
消费增长,库存支撑
Energy demand and pr i ces
Primary energy c ons umpt i on Billion toe
8
$2013/bo e
120
Inflation adjusted pr i ces
O u t lin e
? Int rod uc t i on
? Energy and the ec onom y ? Fuel by fu el
O E CD 7
Non-O EC D
6 5 4
3
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
Oil B r e n t 90 Gas European s po t Gas US Coal b ask et
60
30
1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
? Concluding re m a r ks
Source: includes data from ICIS Heren Energy, Energy Intelligence Group, IHS McCloskey and Platts
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能源需求和价格
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10亿吨油当量 8
一次能源需求
扣除通胀因素后的价格
2013美元价格/桶油当量 120 经合组织国家
7 非经合组织国家
6
5 目录
4
石油(布伦特)
90 天然气(欧洲现货价格) 天然气(美国) 煤炭(一揽子价格)
60
30
? 引言 3
1993 1998
2003
2008
2013
1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
? 能源和经济
? 各类燃料的发展状况 ? 结语
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来源: 包括来自C S Heren E n e r g y, Energy nt e llig e nce Gr o u p , IHS McCloskey and 普氏(Platt s )的数据
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To begin with, let ’s step back a lit tle.
首先,稍作回顾。
Ten years ago, the energy world looked rather dif f erent. Much of what we took for granted has changed. It is always a good first step to look back at where you came from bef ore assessing today. What have been some of the major changes over the past decade?
十年前,能源世界大为不同。很多我们当时认为理所当 然的事也已改变。在审视今天之前,对历史稍作回顾向来是 好的第一步。那么,过去十年里发生了哪些重大改变?
In t r odu c t i on
引言
The purpose of this review has always been to provide objective data on global energy developments; and to chronicle changes in global energy markets year by year, in as rigorous a fashion as possible. Here is last year ’s chapter.
本年鉴的宗旨一如既往地在于提供全球能源发展动态的 客观数据;并竭尽所能严谨地逐年记录全球能源市场的变
化。本文讲述去年的能源动态。
Ten years ago, the developing world, classified here as non-OECD economies, had started to embark on a period of rapid economic growth (the term BRICs was coined in 2001). From 2001 onward, this showed up as an ―energy gap ‖ – global energy demand growth became dominated by the non-OECD; in 2008, it overtook the OECD. China, rightly or wrongly, came to symbolize this ascent, overtaking the EU in 2007, the US in 2010 and the whole of North America last year. Many would have found this hard to believe ten years ago.
十年前,本文归类为非经合组织经济体的发展中国家开 始进入经济快速增长期(2001年―金砖国家‖一词出现)。 自2001年以来,这种增长体现出―能源缺口‖——非经合组 织主导着全球能源需求的增长;2008年,非经合组织的需 求增长超过经合组织。中国成为上述需求增长的标志,姑且 不论正确与否,其能源需求在2007年超过欧盟,2010年超过
BP 世界能源统计2014年6月 1
美国,去年则超过整个北美。十年前,许多人会觉得此事难 以置信。
Energy markets are huge and the supply response can be sluggish. So prices started to rise and to diverge. Oil prices rose the fastest, of course, but many of the implications are easily forgotten: today, we think of oil prices above $100 as normal, and many an analyst remains gainfully employed by investigating gas price spreads – an activity which w ould
not have attracted much attention ten years ago.
能源市场非常庞大,供应侧反应可能缓慢。因此,价格 开始攀升——并呈现差异化。石油价格当然上涨最快,但很 多影响容易被遗忘:今天,我们认为石油价格超过100美元 是正常现象,许多分析师被高薪聘请,致力于研究天然气价 差——这项工作在10年前不会如此受到关注。
Reserves and new sources of energy s upply
Perceptions change, not only about reserves. A supply response always existed but it became widely recognized only after it triggered the emergence of ―n ew ‖ sources of supply. The biggest item on this list has to be the emergence of unconventional oil and gas resources. That this w ould happen in the competitive energy world of North America makes perfect economic sense, in retrospect. But who would have thought?
各种认知发生变化,不仅是对储量的认知。供应侧的反
应始终存在,但只有在其导致出现―新‖供应来源后才会得 到
普遍认识。在这方面,规模最大的新供应来源当然是非常 规油气资源。回头来看,非常规油气资源开发出现在高度竞 争的北美能源行业完全符合经济理论。但此前又有谁能够未 卜先知呢? If we loosely group together fuels that we may classify
as ―n ew ‖, simply by virtue of having not been around a decade ago, including renewables motivated by newly f ound
Oil r es erves
T r illio n bb ls 2.0 O t he r
North Am e r i ca
Gas r es er ves
Tc m 200
Energy production growth 2013
A nnua l change, M t oe
50
100
150
climate change policies (and high fossil fuel prices), the y accounted for 81% of global primary energy production growth last year. 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4
0.0 FS U OPEC
160
120 80 40
R en ew ab l es *
US g as US o il World t o t a l
如果我们将可归类为―新燃料‖的各种燃料进行大致汇 总,其定义就是十年前尚不存在的燃料,而且包括由新出台 的气候变化政策(及居高不下的化石燃料价格)推动产生的 可再生能源,―新燃料‖去年在全球一次能源生产增长中的 1983 1998 2013 1983 1998 2013
* Includes bi of uels
储量和新型供应源
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比重为81%。
Time to look at this in more detail.
现在可以进行更详细的分析。
万亿桶 石油储量
天然气储量
万亿立方米
2013年能源产量增长
年度变化,百万吨油当量
2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4
其他 北美洲 前苏联
石油输出国组织
200
160 120 80
40
可再生能源* 美国天然气 美国石油
0 50 100
150
0.0
0 总计
1983 1998 2013 1983 1998 2013
* 包括生物燃料
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One trend that has not changed is reserves growth. It was always one of our more popular statistics, but saying that proved reserves had increased, after yet another year of rapid oil, gas or coal consumption growth, created a lot more disbelief then than now. But increase they did: proved oil and gas reserves are up 27% and 19%, respectively, over the last ten years alone – despite production growth of 11% and 29%.
没有改变的一个趋势是储量的增长。储量一直是较受欢 迎的统计数据,但在石油、天然气和煤炭消费经历了又一年 的迅猛增长后,提出探明储量有所增加的说法在当时引起的 质疑远多于现在。但储量的确在增长:仅以过去的十年而 论,石油和天然气的探明储量分别增加27%和19%——尽管 产量增幅为11%和29%。
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Energy and the ec ono m y
能源和经济
Energy and the ec onomy
possible to combine economic growth with stagnant or
falling energy consumption.
在过去十年里,虽然经合组织的经济增长为18%,但其
能源消费保持平稳。如果我们对一个特别合适的数据子集进
行分析,即欧盟当前28个成员国去年的累计经济增长为
54%,但能源消费却降至1988年的水平,——这里不难提
A nnua l change, %
10%
GDP grow t h Energy and GDP in 2013
A nnua l change, %
8%
出一个耐人寻味的问题,是否可能,或在什么情况下,可以
在经济增长的同时使能源消费滞缓或有所下降?
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
Non-OE C D
6%
4%
2%
OECD
Meanwhile in the non-OECD, stronger economic gro wth
and industrialization necessitated continued consumption
growth before, during and after the crisis. The relationship
between economic and energy growth was quite similar in -4%0%
GDP Energy GDP E ne r gy the OECD and non-OECD the ten years before the crisis.
Source: includes data from Oxford Economics
Note: GDP gr ow t h based on Purchasing P ow e r Pa ri t y measure of GDP
能源和经济
GDP 增长
年度变化,%
10%
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Energy and GDP in 2013
年度变化,%
8%
After the crisis, and presumably related to large, energy
intensive fiscal stimuli elsewhere, energy intensity improved
faster in the OECD.
在非经合组织,较为强劲的经济增长和工业化使能源消
费在危机之前、期间和过后保持持续增长。在爆发危机前的
十年,经合组织与非经合组织各自的经济与能源增长之间的
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
非经合组织
6%
4%
2%
经合组织关系非常类似。在危机爆发后,可能是在大规模、改善能源
强度的财政刺激影响下,经合组织的能源强度改善更快。
2013 broke this pattern. Global primary energy
consumption accelerated from 1.8% to 2.3%, just a tic k
-4%0%
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013GDP 能源GDP 能源
below the ten year a v erage[2.5% p.a.] and despite slackening
economic growth. For the two subgroups, fortunes diverged.
来源: 包括来自牛津经济研究院的数据
备注:GDP增长率是基于购买力平价(PPP)的数据计算
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2013年打破了这种模式。虽然经济增长疲软,但全球一Global economic growth has been softening since 2010,
the year of big economic stimuli. Last year it was 3%, a lit tle
weaker than 2012, and considerably below its ten year
average [3.7% p.a.], which now includes the years of boom
and bust before and after the economic crisis. Economic
performance softened in the OECD and non-OECD alike, but
the economic ―gr owth gap‖between them has nar ro w ed
since the crisis.
2010年实行大规模经济刺激,之后全球经济增长放缓。
去年的增速为3%,略低于2012年,远低于过去十年平均
水平[3.7%],这十年包括了经济危机前后的繁荣与萧条年份。
经合组织与非经合组织的经济状况均显疲软,但两者间经
济―增长差距‖自危机以来有所缩小。
Energy consumption followed economic growth, but
with a t wist.
次能源消费加速增长,从1.8%增至2.3%,仅略低于十年
平均水平[2.5%]。对于两个群体而言,命运迥异。
OECD energy demand rose by 1.2%, offsetting an equal
decline the previous year, despite slowing and lacklustre
economic performance – almost on a par with GDP gro wth
[1.3%]. Non-OECD energy consumption, in contrast, gre w
by only 3.1%, the slowest rate for 13 years, except for the
crisis year 2009 –and substantially below GDP gro wth
[4.8%].
尽管经济状况疲软无力且乏善可陈,经合组织的能源需
求仍增长1.2%,抵消了此前一年同等幅度的下滑,几乎与
国内生产总值增长持平[1.3%]。与之对照,非经合组织的能
源消费仅增长3.1%,在过去的13年里,这是除2009年危机
年份外的最低增速,而且远低于国内生产总值的增长[4.8%]。
Energy consumption in 2013
能源消费与经济增长的趋势一致,但其间出现过一次波
动。Growth by r e gion
A nnua l change, %
-3% 0% 3% 6% 9%
Growth by f ue l
A nnua l change, %
Energy consumption growth in the OECD has been flat
over the last ten years, despite economic growth of 18%.
And, if we take a particularly fitting sub-set, energy
consumption in today’s 28 member states of the European
Union last year was back at the level of 1988, despite
16.3%
cumulative economic growth of 54% – raising the intriguing
question whether, or under which circumstances, it may be
e
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2013年能源消费 growth. We will discuss the details in a minute.
即使只看全球燃料需求总量,上述效应也显而易见。中
国造成了煤炭需求增长的相对疲软,而美国推动了石油需求 分区域增长
年度变化, %
年度变化, %
分燃料增长
保持较为强劲的增长。本文稍后将进行详细讨论。
-3% 0% 3% 6% 9%
16.3%
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All told, the diverging performance of China and the US caused the ―energy gap ‖ between non-OECD and OECD energy consumption growth to narrow sharply. It became the smallest since 2000.
总而言之,中美之间截然不同的表现使非经合组织与经 合组织的能源消费增长之间的―能源缺口‖大幅缩小,达到 2000年以来的最低水平。
North A me ric a, the only region globally to show abo v e- average growth, drove the OECD acceleration, with energy demand growing even faster than GDP . The non-OECD slowdown was concentrated in Asia, with energy consumption growth below 4% for only the second time in 12 years, while economic growth held steady [5.2%].
作为能源需求增长高出平均水平的全球唯一区域,北美 推动了经合组织需求的加速增长,北美能源需求的增速甚至 超过了国内生产总值的增长。非经合组织的增速放缓主要体 现在亚洲,其能源消费增长在过去12年中第二次出现低于
4%的水平,而经济增长保持稳定[5.2%]。
The contrasting experiences of North America and Asia Pacific reflect the differing fortunes of the world ’s largest energy consumers, China and the US . Together, they account for more than 70% of world energy consumption gro wth.
北美和亚太地区的鲜明对照反映出世界最大的能源消费 国——中国和美国的不同发展轨迹。中美两国的能源消费增 长之和占全球增长的70%以上[72.52%]。
In 2013 Chinese energy growth slipped from 7.0% to
4.7%, and thus well below its ten year trend [8.6% p.a.] – although the People ’s Republic reported unchanged economic growth of 7.7%. The slowdown in Chinese gro wth was concentrated in coal but is visible in oil as w ell. Meanwhile, US primary energy consumption grew by 2.9%, rebounding from a 2.8% decline in 2012. Much of this is due to weather effects; but beyond the weather, there are signs of underlying strength in US industrial sector energy use, in particular of oil products.
2013年,中国的能源消费增长从7.0%降至4.7%,因而远 低于其十年趋势水平[年均8.6%]——尽管中国所报告的经济 增长仍高达7.7%。中国的能源消费增长放缓主要体现在煤炭 领域,但也包括石油消费。美国的一次能源消费增长2.9%, 继2012年下滑2.8%后出现反弹。这种增长在很大程度上源 自天气因素;但除天气之外,美国工业部门的能源消费出现 根本性的增长迹象,特别是对石油产品的需求反弹。
The effects are visible, even if we only look at global fuel aggregates. China is responsible for the relative weakness of coal growth, and the US for the relative strength of oil
What can the energy data tell us? Are these data points a harbinger of things to come or just an aber ration? Too early to tell is the appropriate answer. In our textbooks, energy demand is the consequence of economic growth. In reality, where data measurement is less than perfect, energy data often allows for conclusions about real economic activity. In the present context, it is easy to see how abundant domestic resources in the US would eventually give a boost to the economy, not just to energy demand. It is much harder to see how the fundamental restructuring underway in China could leave an imprint only on energy demand without, eventually, affecting economic performance as w ell.
上述能源数据能够揭示什么要素?这些数据是未来发展 的预兆还是偶尔出现的偏差?正确的答案是现在下结论为时 过早。在教科书中,能源需求是经济发展的结果。在现实 中,尽管数据测量并非完美,但能源数据通常有助于对实体 经济活动作出结论。在当前背景下,不难看出美国富饶的国
内资源将如何最终推动经济发展,而不仅是拉高能源需求。 更难以琢磨的是,中国方兴未艾的基本结构调整如何可以只
改变能源需求,而不会最终影响经济绩效。
Let ’s look at these developments fuel by fuel.
让我们根据各种燃料对上述动态进行分析。
4
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Fuel by f ue l
各种燃料
O il
石油
The oil market in 2013
增长——这与2012年的动态恰好相反。因此库存量下滑。
And 2013 was yet another year of turbulence in oil production. We are all familiar with the ongoing story of rapid growth in the US; but it was also yet another year of significant supply disruptions, most notably in North Africa and the Middle East.
2013年还是石油生产出现动荡的又一个年头。我们对美
国产量迅猛增长的故事耳熟能详,但2013年也再次出现严重 的供应减产,尤以北非和中东为甚。
$/bbl
Oil prices and vola t ilit y
V o l a ti li ty *
Production and consumption grow t h
A nnua l change, M b/d
So why did prices remain so stable? We will investigate 120
100
80
60
40
20
Price volatility (R HS) Oil p r ic e
90%
75%
60%
45%
30%
15% 0% 2.5
2.0
1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Pr odu c t i on
in detail, starting with global oil consumption.
那么,价格何以保持稳定?我们将详细探究,首先来看 全球石油消费情况。
1969
1980
1991
2002
2013
2012
2013
Oil consumption
Source: includes data from Platts * T hree year standard deviation
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Mb /d 55 50
Oil c ons umption
OECD
Non-O EC D
K b /d
Largest changes in 2013
-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 US 2013年石油市场
石油价格和波动
美元/桶 120 价格波动(右轴) 100 石油价格
80
60 40 20
波动* 90% 75% 60% 45% 30%
15%
产量和消费增长
年度变化,百万桶/日 2.5
2.0
1.5 1.0 0.5
45
40 35 30 25 20
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Ch i n a Br a z il Russ i a S. A r a b ia
It a ly M exi c o Is r ae l
Spa i n
J apan
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0% 1969
1980
1991
2002
2013
0.0石油消费
2012
2013
来源: 包括来自普氏(P la tts )的数据 * 三年数据的标准差
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百万桶/日 55
石油消费
千桶/日
2013年变化最大的国家
-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400
Oil prices over the last three years have been high but remarkably stable. In 2013, they dipped slightly, with Dated Brent averaging almost $109 [$108.66], $3 below t he a v erage of 2011 and 2012.This has been the third consecutive year of prices above $100, a first in both real and nominal terms; and it has been the three year period with the lo w est price volatility since 1970. 经合组织国家 非经合组织国家
50 45 40 35 30 25 20
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
美国 中国 巴西 俄罗
斯
沙特阿拉伯
意大利 墨西哥 以色列 西班牙 日本
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在过去三年里,石油价格居高不下但非常稳定。2013 年,油价略微下跌,布伦特现货均价接近109美元[108.66美 元],比2011年和2012年的平均价格低出3美元。石油价格连 续第三年超过100美元,而实际及名义油价首度双双突破
100美元大关;这三年是1970年以来油价波动幅度最小的时 期。
The stability in oil prices betrays significant changes in the underlying balance between consumption and
production. In 2013, global consumption growth exceeded
production growth by a wide margin —the exact opposite of
the dynamics in 2012. As a result, inventories f ell.
稳定的石油价格没有体现出消费及生产之间基本平衡状 况发生的重大变化。2013年,全球消费增长远远超过生产
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Global oil consumption last year rose by 1.4 Mb/d in 2013, or 1.4%, higher than both 2012 and the ten year average. As has become the norm, growth was driven by the emerging economies of the non-OECD, which for the first time accounted for the majority of global consumption. OECD demand remained stagnant.
2013年,全球石油消费增长140万桶/日,即1.4%,高于 2012年的增长率及过去十年的平均水平。正如司空见惯的情
况一样,增长的驱动因素是非经合组织的新兴经济体,它们
在全球消费中的比重首次居多。经合组织的需求仍然停滞不
前。
In the OECD, the US stood out as its consumption gre w by 400 Kb/d, the fastest growth of any country last year –
and (in volume terms) outpacing China for the first time since
1999. In contrast, consumption in the rest of the OECD f ell
by a larger than average 380 Kb/d, led by a 160 Kb/d decline
in Japan, where oil was backed out of power generation by
renewables, coal and improved efficiency. European
分产品的石油消费量
2013年各类产品增幅
千桶/日
600
千桶/日
2013年美国增幅
-100 0 100 200 consumption dropped by 130 Kb/d, with the largest declines
seen in the countries most affected by the recession, such
as Spain, Italy and Greece.
400
200
中质馏分油
汽油
10年平均
液化石油气* 和石脑油
汽油中质馏
分油
就经合组织而言,美国脱颖而出,消费增长 40 万其他
-200
桶/日,为去年增速最快的国家——(按量计算)自1999年
以来首度超过中国。与此对照,其他经合组织经济体的消费
降幅超过平均水平,为38万桶/日,日本首当其冲地减少
16
非经合组织国家经合组织国家
* 包括乙烷
10年平均
BP世界能源统计年鉴
? BP 2014
万桶/日,其原因包括可再生能源和煤炭在发电行业中挤占
了石油的份额,以及能效有所提高。欧洲的消费下降13
万
桶/日,受衰退影响最大的国家跌幅最大,例如西班牙、意
大利和希腊。
Non-OECD consumption rose by 1.4 Mb/d or 3.1%, w ell
below the ten year average [3.9% p.a.]. This weakness w as
especially pronounced in China, where demand grew by only
390 Kb/d – the lowest since the recession in 2009. Gro wth
in India [40 Kb/d] fell to its lowest level since 2001 as
subsidies were reduced while in the Middle East, gro wth
was limited by civil unrest and rising use of natural gas in
Saudi Arabia’s power sector.
非经合组织的消费增长140万桶/日,即 3.1%,远低于
十年平均水平[3.9%]。中国的消费疲态最为明显,需求仅增
加
39万桶/日——为2009年发生经济衰退以来的最低水平。印
度在削减补贴后,增幅[4万桶/日]降至2001年以来的最低
水平,而中东地区的增长受到内部动乱及沙特发电部门增加
天然气使用等因素的制约。
So far in 2014, global oil demand growth has been slo w er
due to more modest demand growth in the US and a further
slowdown in China.
2014年迄今为止,由于美国需求的增长幅度减小及中国
需求的进一步放缓,全球石油需求增长减速。
Oil consumption by pr oduc t
A review of oil consumption by product can help to
identify underlying economic forces. Light distillates, such as
gasoline, more dependent on prices, were the f astest
growing product category for the second consecutive year
[620 Kb/d], whereas middle distillates, more dependent on
economic activity, grew only slowly [490 Kb/d]. The main
driver of light distillate growth was strong gasoline demand
in the non-OECD; OECD gasoline consumption registered a
rare, small increase. The slowdown in middle distillate
demand growth was again entirely driven by the developing
world where growth almost halved [to 350 Kb/d from 660
Kb/d in 2012]. And within this group it was again China whic h
accounted for by far the largest part of the slo w do wn.
按各种石油产品对石油消费进行评估有助于确定基本的
经济因素。对价格依赖较强的汽油等轻质馏分油连续第二年
成为增长最快的石油产品类别[62万桶/日],而对经济活动
依赖较强的中质馏分油仅呈现缓慢增长[49万桶/日]。轻质
馏分油增长的主要驱动因素是非经合组织强劲的汽油需求;
经合组织的汽油消费呈现难得一见的小幅增长。中质馏分油
需求放缓的驱动因素仍是发展中国家,这些国家的增长几乎
减半[从2012年66万桶/日降至35万桶/日]。在这一国家组
别中,需求减缓仍然主要源自中国。
Distinguishing by product category also helps t o
disentangle the question why the US saw such a dramatic
increase in oil consumption last year – up 400 Kb/d, against
an average annual decline of 110 Kb/d over the last ten years.
This cannot be explained by economic growth which slo w ed
from 2.8% to 1.9% last year. The rise was focused in the
industrial sector, including refining and petrochemicals, K b/d
Growth by product type in 2013
K b/d
US growth in 2013which contributed almost 80% of net growth [310 Kb/d].
600
400
200
-200
Mid d le
d i s ti ll a t
e s
Gas o lin e
10 year
aver a g e
-100 0 100 200
L PG* and na p ht h a
Gas o lin e
Middle d is t illa t es
O t he r
Much of this growth was for light products [in particular
LPG], facilitated by the robust growth of domestic natural
gas liquids, which has driven down prices significantly over
the last few years.
按产品类别进行区分还有助于解析美国去年的石油消费Non-OECD OECD
* Includes ethane BP S t a t is t ic a Review of World Energy
? BP 2014
激增现象——增加40万桶/日,而在过去十年里则年均减少
11万桶/日。经济增长无法解释这一现象,因为美国去年的
经济增长从2.8%降至1.9%。石油消费增长集中在工业部
门,包括炼油和石化行业,工业部门在净增长中所占比重接
近80%[31万桶/日]。这种增长主要集中在轻质石油产品[特别
是液化石油气],这得益于美国国内天然气液体产品在过去6 BP世界能源统计2014年6月