复旦大学
硕士学位论文
中国和东盟地区论坛安全政策会议:动机与挑战
姓名:潘维光
申请学位级别:硕士
专业:国际政治
指导教师:陈志敏
20070513
中文摘要
在2003年六月份举行的第十届东盟地区论坛,中国方面提倡在此安全.政治论坛框架内设立一个由高级国防和安全官员参与的安全政策会议。中国方面的倡议在下
一届东盟地区论坛得到了通过。安全会议的概念文件指出,东盟地区论坛安全政策
会议将为加强军事领域的互信建立和国防官员的参与力度做出贡献,开放国防官员
及军事方面的学者进行对话交流的一个新的渠道,并且巩固和促进东盟地区论坛进
程。进入新世纪以后,这是第一次中国提出在东盟地区论坛框架内建立一个新的多
边安全机制,而且这个机构是历来在东盟地区论坛里面级别最高的安全机制。它弥
补了国防和安全官员对话交流方面的空缺。东盟是东盟地区论坛的主导者。东南亚
地区历来也是各大国进行权力斗争的一场突出的平台。中国一再对东南亚加强投资
与交往的力度也日益吸引更多的学术关注。鉴于上述情况,本文主要着眼于推动中
国提倡成立东盟地区论坛安全政策会议的有关东南亚地区的各安全动机,然后思考
中国在这个安全机制里面要面临的种种挑战。
中国在东南亚地区的战略目标是一个争论中的研究热点。有人认为中国在东南亚地区的活跃动态是为了其和平发展创造顺利条件。有的认为中国正针对美国在本
地区的影响力,并谋求发展一个以中国为中心的经济-安全共同体(Dalpinoand
Steinberg。2003,15)。历史和文化彼认为是认识,了解中国t东南亚关系将来关系的
基本因素(Stuart-Fox,2004)。一系列由中国方面提出的多边倡议被视为打击美国在本
地区的主导地位的长期计划中的组成部分(YbngandMoore,2004)。至于有关东盟地
区论坛安全政策会议的学术研究几乎是一片空白。目前有关这个安全机制的文献可
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论坛安全政策会议已经取得了一些可观成果。不过它的发展步伐还面临许多刺手的
挑战。第三章有两个节。第一节谈到东盟地区论坛的初步成功。第二节是第三章的
主体部分。第二节涉及以下几个内容:对于建立互信的挑战,有关中国的几个国际
关系热点,和作为主导者的东盟的局限性影响。信任建立措施方面存在一系列问题
等待化解。比如由一些西方国家构成的激进派急于推动论坛进入预防外交阶段,由
东盟和中国主导的另一派主张继续坚持建立互信的措施。此矛盾若不妥善处理将对
东盟地区论坛及其新建的安全政策会议产生进一步的分裂。若干热点,比如中国与
美国之间的战略性分歧,朝鲜核问题,中国和几个东南亚国家之间的岛屿争端。加
上,增强东盟在其地区论坛及安全政策会议的主导地位符合于中国的基本利益,因
此一个有着局限性实力的东盟也不利于中国推动这个安全机制的发展。
总之,中国提出建立东盟地区论坛安全政策会议的倡议跟它在东南亚地区的安
全权益是息息相关的。安全会议的成立与运行为中国促进其在东南亚地区非传统安
全利益提供新渠道。东盟地区论坛安全政策会议也积极地推进了新安全观在东南亚
地区的奉行,并为削减中国威胁论在本地区的消极影响做出了贡献。此外,通过支
持东盟在东盟地区论坛发挥主导作用,中国期待一个成熟的东盟会成为美国,Et本
等列强以外的重要一极。本文还初步探索中国在新建的安全机制里面所面临的挑战,
其中包括对信任建立措施的挑战,若干地区分歧和身为主导者而又缺乏广泛影响力
的东盟。演变中的东盟地区论坛安全政策会议将为进一步探讨中国对东南亚的安全
政策创造更多的机会。
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ACKNOWLEDGMENT
1wouldliketoexpressmythankstoHoChiMinhNationalPoliticalAcademy
(Vietnam),itssubordinateInstituteforInternationalRelationsandFord
Foundation-CEEVNforsendingmetotheprestigiousuniversityofFudan(Shanghai,
China).Iamgratefultomyfamilyfortheirsupportthroughoutthedurationofmy
studyatFudanUniversity.1wouldliketoconveygratitudetomyadvisor,Professor
ChenZhiminforhisgreatlyvaluableguidance.1wouldliketoextendmythanksto
thefacultyofSchoolofInternationflRelationsandPublicAffairs.Instituteof
InternationalStudies(FudanUniversity)andtheothermembersofFudanUniversity
fortheircomprehensivesupportduringmyMAcourse.
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CHINAANDARFSECURITYPoLlCYCoNFERENCE:
MoTIVATIoNSANDCHALLENGES
INTRODUCTIoN
AtthetenthASEANRegionalForuminJune2003,Chinaproposedtoestablishasecuritypolicyconferencewiththeparticipationofdefenseandsecurityofficialsat
thelevelofvice-minister.TheproposalwasthenendorsedatthefollowingARF.The
SecurityPolicyConferenceisthehighestleveloftheeventsthatinvolvenational
defenseofficialswithintheframeworkoftheARF,whichas,theprincipal
consultativeAsia—PacificForumforpromotingpoliticalandsecuritycooperationin
theregionhasfilledablankforthedialoguesamonghigh-levelmilitaryofficials.As
appearedinitsagreedConceptPaper,theARFSecurityPolicyConference(ASPC)
wouldcontributetofurtherstrengthenthecooperationofconfidencebuilding
measuresinmilitaryspherewithintheframeworkoftheARFandtheparticipation
ofdefenseofficialsintheARF;toopennewchannelsofdialogueandexchanges
amongdefenseofficials,diplomatsaswellasmilitaryacademicpersonages;andto
furtherimproveandsubstantiatetheprocessoftheAREFurthermore,ithasbeenthe
firstinitiativebyChinatoestablishnewmultilateralsecuritymechanismunderthe
auspicesoftheARFsincethebeginningofthenewcentury
ThedrivingforceoftheARFistheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations.SoutheastAsiaisalsotheprominentarenaofpowerbalanceamongbigstatessuch
asAmerica,ChinaandJapan.Funhermore,theChina’Sgrowingengagementin
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statesassignificantsourcesoftheASPCproposal.Finally,itwilladdressseveralprominentchallengestoChinaintheevolvingASPC,includingchallengestotheconfidencebuilding,acoupleofsevereregionalsecurityissuesandthelimitedleadingroleofASEAN
1.ARFSECURITYPoLICYCONFERENCEANDTHEoRIESoFINTERNATIoNALREGIMES
1.1ASEANREGIoNALFoRUM
TheASEANRegionalForum(ARF)wasestablishedin1994asanextensionoftheAssociationofSouthEastAsianNations’(ASEAN)externaldialoguesonpoliticalandsecurityissueswithstatesintheAsia—Pacificregion.TheannualARFMinisterialMeetinghasbecomeasignificantplatformforconsultationonregional
securityandpoliticalissuesandon
globalaffairsthatimpactontheregion.
ThefirstmeetingoftheARFwasconvenedinBangkokon25July1994inaccordancewiththe1992SingaporeDeclarationoftheFourthASEANSummit
wherebytheASEANheadsofstateandgovernmentproclaimedtheirintentto
intensifyASEAN’S
externalpoliticalandsecuritydialoguesasameansofbuilding
cooperativetiesintheregion.Attendingthemeetingwereforeignministersof
ASEAN,itsdialogueandconsultativepartnersaswellasobservers.Itwas
consideredtobeanhistoriceventfortheregion,beingthefirsttimethat
high??rankingrepresentativesfromthemajorityofstatesin‘theAsia??Pacificregion
gatheredtodiscusspoliticalandsecuritycooperation.
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diplomacy
ItwasagreedattheoutsetthattheARFwouldoperatealongtwoseparatebutcoordinatedtracks.TrackOneactivitieswouldbebroughtaboutbyARFgovernments.TrackTwoactivitieswouldbeundertakenbystrategicinstitutesandrelevantnon-governmentorganizations.The12thARFemphasizedtheneedtocontinueenrichinglinkagesbetweenthetwotracks
TheARFhasachievedconsiderableprogressinincreasingcooperationinthesphereofconfidencebuildingmeasures,inthediscussionofpreventivediplomacyand011awiderangeofnon?traditionalsecurityissues.Morerecently,dialogue
amongdefenseand
security
officialsandCBMsintheARF
settinghavealsobeen
enhanced,inparticularthroughtheconveningofASPC
1.2ASPCPRoPoSAL
ThetenthARFinJune2003welcomedChina’Sproposaltoconveneasecurity
policyconferencewiththeparticipationofseniordefenseandsecurity
officials
ThenpursuanttothedecisionofthetenthMinisterialMeetingoftheARF,the
Inter-sessionalSupportGrouponConfidenceBuildingMeasures(ISGonCBMs),
CO?chairedbyChinaandMyanmar,heldthefirstmeetingofthe2003?2004
inter—sessionalyearinBeijingfrom20?22November2003.TheMeetingstressed
thatitwasimportanttoincreasetheinvolvementofdefenseofficialsintheARF
process.Tothisend,theywelcomedChina’SeffortsindraftingtheConceptPaperon
”theARFSecurityPolicyConference”(ASPC).Theyagreedtofurtherdiscussand
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“internationalregime”。andidentifieditasoneofthreelevelsofinstitutionalization.
Young(1980,332-333)defined“Regimesaresocialinstitutionsgoverningtheactionsofthoseinterestedinspecifiableactivities(ormeaningfullsetsofactivities)
Assuch,theyarerecognizedpatternofpracticearoundwhichexpectations
converge’’and‘‘Internationalregimespertaintoactivitiesofinteresttomembersof
theinternationalsystem’’2
ThemostuseddefinitionofregimescomesfromStephenKrasner(1982,186)
“Regimescanbedefinedassetsofimplicitorexplicitprinciples,norms,rules,and
decision—makingproceduresaroundwhichactors’expectationsconvergeinagiven
areaofinternationalrelations.Principlesarebeliefsofact,causation,andrectitude.
Normsarestandardsofbehaviordefinedintermsofrightsandobligations.Rulesare
specificprescriptionsorproscriptionsforaction.Decision?makingproceduresare
andimplementingcollectivechoice.”Headdedthat
prevailingpracticesformaking
thisusagewasconsistentwithotherpreviousformulationsbyKeohaneandNye,
HaasandHedleyBull3.Krasnerdistinguishedtwolevelsofregimechange.Changes
inrulesandproceduresarechangeswithintheregime4.Ifprinciplesornormschange,
achangeofregimeitselftakeplace—inotherwords,anewregimeemerges5.
Strange(1983,484?486)notedthatregimeanalysesweredoomeddueto
“imprecision'’oftheconcept.Scholarsfavorabletothestudyoftheregimeshave
2
Thes8rnedefinitionsofregimeandinternationalRgimecanbefoundinYoung,OhmR.1982.Regimedynamics:the
andfallofinternationalregimes.InternationalOrganization36(2):277
r.ise
’SeeKrasner,StephenD.1982.StructuralCausesandRegimeConsequences:Regimes∞InterveningVariables.
InternationalOrganization,36(2):186
’Ibid…P187
’Ibid…P188
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AccordingtothedefinitiongivenbyKrasner,theASPCcanberegardedasaregime.InthecaseoftheASPC,thefourcomponentsofregimesidentifiedby
Krasnerareaddressedasbelow
PRINCIPLES:TheASPChasbeenestablishedtofurtherstrengthenthe
measuresinmilitaryspherewithinthecooperationofconfidencebuilding
frameworkoftheARFandtheparticipationofdefenseofficialsintheARF,toopen
newchannelsofdialogueandexchangesamongdefenseofficials,diplomatsaswell
asmilitaryacademicpersonages,tofurtherincreasemutualtrustandunderstanding
amongthedefenseofficials,tofurtherimproveandsubstantiatetheprocessofthe
ARFandkeeppushingitforward6
NORMS:TheConferencewillactinaspiritoftheARFasapoliticaland
securityforum,andwilladheretotheprinciplesandmodalitiesofadoptingdecision
byconsensus,seekinggradualprogress,equalparticipation,andaccommodatingthe
comfortlevelofallparticipants.ThediscussionsoftheConferenceshouldbe
consistentwiththerecognizedbasicinternationallawandinter—staterelations
embodied,interalia,intheUnitedNationsCharter,andwithprinciplesestablished
fortheARF,includingrespectfornationalsovereignty,territorialintegrity,and
non.interferenceineachother,sinternalaffairs7
RULES:TheConferencewillbechairedbyallASEANmember.Theparticipantsoftheconferencewillincludeseniordefenseandsecuritypolicy
officials.Whileinprincipleparticipationwillbeatthelevelofvice-ministeror
6
ARFSeeudtyPolicyConfergnee?锄agreedeoneel’tpaper,http://www.dfatgov.au/arf/statements/annex._hhtml
’ARFSeeudtyPolicyConference-anagreedconceptP卸er,hap://www.dfatgov.au/arffstatements/annex_h.html
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totheConferenceanddeterminedbyconsensusofallARFparticipants.Toensurea
fruitfuldiscussion,thechairmaychooseoneortwothemesfordiscussionateach
conferenceinconsultationwithalltheparticipants.Participantsmayconductfree
andextensiveexchangesofviewsandideasonfixedtopicsll
AstheASPChasbeeninterpretedasallinternationalregimeinthesecurity
sphere,thetheoriesofinternationalregimescanbeutilizedtodevelopfurther
analysesontheChinesemotivationsbehindtheASPCinitiativeandchallengesto
ChinaintheASPC.Thenextsectionwillreviewpredominantschoolsinthestudyof
internationalregimesinthepreparationforconcreteassessmentsrelevanttoChina.
1.3.3EXPLANATIoNSFoRREGIMEFoRMATIoNANDDYNAMICS
Therearethreemainschoolsinthestudyofregimes:theneo?liberalist,the
realistandthecognitivist.Thefirsttwoarerationalistapproacheswhilethethirdis
sociological.Realismisarguablythedominantschoolinthefieldofinternational
relationsatlarge,butwithintheregimetheories,theliberalistapproachesare
seeminglypredominant.
NEO-LIBERALISTSCHOOL:Neo-liberalisttheoriesemphasizetherolethat
internationalregimesplayinhelpingstatestorealizecommoninterests.Statesare
describedasrationalegoistswhocareonlyfortheirownabsolutegains.Neo—liberals
haveappliedeconomictheoriesofinstitutionsthatfocusoninformationand
ARFSecurityPolicyConference?∞agreedconceptpaper,http://www.dfat.gov.au/arf/statements/annex_h.html
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ofconsciousdesignandevenexplicitawareness.Negotiatedregimesare
characterizedbyconsciouseffortstoagreeonmajorprovisions,explicitconsenton
thepartofindividualparticipants,andformalexpressionoftheresults.Theimposed
onesaredeliberatelyshapedbydominantactorswhosucceedingettingothersto
conformtotherequirementsoftheseinstitutionsviacoercion,cooptation,andthe
manipulationofincentives
REALISTSCHOOL:Whereasrealistsandneo—liberalsagreethatthestatesarethe
mostimportantactorsontheworldarenaandthatstatesactoutofself-interestinan
anarchicalsetting,realiststendtospecifythepreferencesofstatesactorsdifferently.
Therealistsholdthatstateactorsdocareaboutbenefitsaccumulatedbyits
competitors.Regimethusislesseasilyestablished.Italsodeterioratesmorereadily
ifthedistributionofpowershiftsorifnegativedistributionalconsequencesof
regimesarenoticeable
Thehegemonic?stabilitytheory(Gilpin,1981;Kindleberger,1981;Snidal,1985)linkstheexistenceofeffectiveinternationalinstitutionstoaunipolarconfiguration
ofpowerinagivenissue—area.Basically,thehegemonic—stabilitytheoryassertsthat
regimesareestablishedandmaintainedbyactorswhoownpredominantpower
resourcesrelevanttoaspecificissue?area,andthatregimesdecaywhenleverage
becomesmoreequalamongtheirmembers
Thesecondapproachintherealisttheoriesofregime,focusesontheconnectionsbetweenstatepoweranddistributionalconflicts(Krasner,1991,340)
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